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(National Review)   Romney handlers: The fact that Romney got no measurable bounce in the polls after the RNC is proof that it was an unqualified success   (nationalreview.com) divider line 97
    More: Unlikely, romney, RNC, swing vote, Romney's, democratic convention, Neil Newhouse, Richard Holbrooke, National Review  
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1325 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Sep 2012 at 4:14 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-09-05 12:29:22 PM  
A) Anything within the margin of error is meaningless.
B) The DNC will show you what a convention bounce looks like
 
2012-09-05 12:30:14 PM  
I think the key word in describing Romney's handlers is "unqualified".
 
2012-09-05 12:31:20 PM  
What a weird thing to say.
 
2012-09-05 12:32:53 PM  
i'm getting 404'd, which is probably the best result i can hope for when clicking on an NRO link.
 
2012-09-05 12:35:29 PM  
I just stepped in dog shiat but that's okay because it means good luck.

Here I go buying lottery tickets in my squishy, smelly shoes.
 
2012-09-05 12:36:13 PM  
404, campaign not found?
 
2012-09-05 12:42:48 PM  

dahmers love zombie: I think the key word in describing Romney's handlers is "unqualified".


/FTFY
 
2012-09-05 12:45:56 PM  
The fact I went home from the bar alone, stopping only to tearfully buy a box of Wildberry Pop-Tarts and "The Best of 'Boy Meets World,'" is proof I actually was inundated under a wave of supermodel vaginas.
 
2012-09-05 12:48:04 PM  
That reminds me of my neighbor's kid.

See, we just got a brand new pool, so of course I'm working 60 hours a week to help pay for it, and don't have time to take care of it myself. I hired the neighbors' kid to do it for me. You know the type - young, good looking, clean-cut, respectful; he's a great kid, I've known him all his life, and I hired him at once.

And it was a great hire, too. Brother, you've never seen a kid tend to a job with such diligence and care. Even though I can only afford to pay him $5/hour two days a week, that kid comes by my house every morning. He comes early, and he works hard too. Every day, when I pull out of the driveway at 7, he hands me the paper from the box, and every evening, when I come home, he'll be out on the back patio, chatting with my wife and daughter. He even comes when the weather is bad, and helps out with household chores like making the bed and vacuuming the bedrooms.

I tell you, I love that kid, and so does my family, especially my wife. She took to him right away, really took him under her wing. They're always talking together. She helps him clean the pool too. It's really nice the way she has drawn him out. He seems less like a boy and more like a man every single day.

I don't know why, but my neighbor Jerry didn't think too much of him. Said the kid was trouble, bad news, rotten, that I should be really worried. I have no idea what he talking about. This kid is perfect. Why should I worry?
 
2012-09-05 12:56:22 PM  

Mr. Coffee Nerves: The fact I went home from the bar alone, stopping only to tearfully buy a box of Wildberry Pop-Tarts and "The Best of 'Boy Meets World,'" is proof I actually was inundated under a wave of supermodel vaginas.


i744.photobucket.com

media.onsugar.com
 
2012-09-05 12:56:42 PM  
Well, to be fair, the guy has been actively running for president for at least 5 years now (and probably doing nearly everything in life with that goal in mind for decades now), so one would think the American people would already have been pretty damn familiar with them. Of course, that might be giving the American people a little too much credit. Betting on the general population being well informed is a losing bet.
 
2012-09-05 12:57:00 PM  
 
2012-09-05 12:57:02 PM  
At this point, maybe Romney needs to have his staff humming "Little Miss Can't Be Wrong" or "Two Princes"...
 
2012-09-05 12:58:00 PM  
www.welovetheiraqiinformationminister.com

No bounce, no problem.
 
2012-09-05 01:03:15 PM  

FirstNationalBastard: Mr. Coffee Nerves: The fact I went home from the bar alone, stopping only to tearfully buy a box of Wildberry Pop-Tarts and "The Best of 'Boy Meets World,'" is proof I actually was inundated under a wave of supermodel vaginas.

[i744.photobucket.com image 336x400]

[media.onsugar.com image 550x449]


thanks, now I need to go find my bunk.
 
vpb [TotalFark]
2012-09-05 01:09:31 PM  
Releasing his tax return from the year of the Swiss account amnesty would give him a bounce. Maybe not the kind he would like.
 
2012-09-05 01:12:10 PM  
The 2012 RNC played out just like the 2004 DNC. No measurable bump in the polls, lackluster acceptance speech, and a keynote speaker that made the actual nominee look like a cardboard cutout. Only this time when the incumbent wins reelection, it's not a sign of a massive wave of mental retardation sweeping over the country.
 
2012-09-05 01:12:30 PM  

hubiestubert: At this point, maybe Romney needs to have his staff humming "Little Miss Can't Be Wrong" or "Two Princes"...


The Spin Doctors would probably sue him to have them stop using their music within minutes.
 
2012-09-05 01:22:04 PM  

vernonFL: [www.welovetheiraqiinformationminister.com image 300x225]

No bounce, no problem.


Came for Bagdad Bob, leaving happy

/Romney is pounding them
 
2012-09-05 01:22:26 PM  

SilentStrider: hubiestubert: At this point, maybe Romney needs to have his staff humming "Little Miss Can't Be Wrong" or "Two Princes"...

The Spin Doctors would probably sue him to have them stop using their music within minutes.


They ARE still touring. But you see the chance for a Spin Doctors joke, you jump on that sh*t...
 
2012-09-05 01:24:49 PM  

WorldCitizen: Well, to be fair, the guy has been actively running for president for at least 5 years now (and probably doing nearly everything in life with that goal in mind for decades now), so one would think the American people would already have been pretty damn familiar with them. Of course, that might be giving the American people a little too much credit. Betting on the general population being well informed is a losing bet.


The thing that kills me, is that for a guy who's been campaigning for this long, you'd think he'd be better at it. Might have developed his skills even. Honed them. If anything, he's more wooden and stilted than when he ran for Governor in Mass...
 
2012-09-05 01:25:01 PM  

hubiestubert: SilentStrider: hubiestubert: At this point, maybe Romney needs to have his staff humming "Little Miss Can't Be Wrong" or "Two Princes"...

The Spin Doctors would probably sue him to have them stop using their music within minutes.

They ARE still touring. But you see the chance for a Spin Doctors joke, you jump on that sh*t...


No, they pay Neil Diamond to use "I am, I said"...

"I am," I said
To no one there
An no one heard at all
Not even the chair

blog.zap2it.com
 
2012-09-05 01:25:35 PM  
He had a bounce and it was measurable. He's now tied up in the polls with Obama compared to about 2 weeks ago where Obama was still about 1.5-2 points ahead.

He just didn't get as big a bounce as he would've liked (i.e. where he's a few points ahead of Obama after the RNC convention).
 
2012-09-05 01:31:49 PM  

RexTalionis: He had a bounce and it was measurable. He's now tied up in the polls with Obama compared to about 2 weeks ago where Obama was still about 1.5-2 points ahead.

He just didn't get as big a bounce as he would've liked (i.e. where he's a few points ahead of Obama after the RNC convention).


What polls? Nate Silver still has Obama winning quite handily.
 
2012-09-05 01:32:15 PM  

FirstNationalBastard: Mr. Coffee Nerves: The fact I went home from the bar alone, stopping only to tearfully buy a box of Wildberry Pop-Tarts and "The Best of 'Boy Meets World,'" is proof I actually was inundated under a wave of supermodel vaginas.

[i744.photobucket.com image 336x400]

[media.onsugar.com image 550x449]


I just got a measurable bounce in my pants.
 
2012-09-05 01:39:19 PM  

Coco LaFemme: RexTalionis: He had a bounce and it was measurable. He's now tied up in the polls with Obama compared to about 2 weeks ago where Obama was still about 1.5-2 points ahead.

He just didn't get as big a bounce as he would've liked (i.e. where he's a few points ahead of Obama after the RNC convention).

What polls? Nate Silver still has Obama winning quite handily.


Read his commentary and look at the snapshot, not the Nov 6 forecast which intentionally removes bounces.
 
2012-09-05 01:41:56 PM  

Coco LaFemme: RexTalionis: He had a bounce and it was measurable. He's now tied up in the polls with Obama compared to about 2 weeks ago where Obama was still about 1.5-2 points ahead.

He just didn't get as big a bounce as he would've liked (i.e. where he's a few points ahead of Obama after the RNC convention).

What polls? Nate Silver still has Obama winning quite handily.


Nate Silver uses a modeling system to predict what happens on November 6th, so for him, polling is only a part of the equation.

I'm talking straight up polling data. Here's the RCP average:

i1212.photobucket.com

For some reason, the RCP average did not also include the Ipsos/Reuters poll from during the RNC convention, because that one showed that Romney was pulling ahead (although a later Ipsos/Reuters poll showed that the race was tied, more or less, again).
 
2012-09-05 01:44:06 PM  
Romney handlers

I believe they're called "technicians."
 
2012-09-05 01:47:27 PM  

RexTalionis: Nate Silver uses a modeling system to predict what happens on November 6th, so for him, polling is only a part of the equation.


I take it you never clicked the "now-cast"?
 
2012-09-05 01:51:59 PM  
dvice.com

You're in an election, running for President, when all of a sudden you look down...
 
2012-09-05 01:57:00 PM  
Wait 'til sheriff Joe hears about this undocumented bounce. He'll get to the bottom of this!
 
2012-09-05 01:57:44 PM  

hubiestubert: WorldCitizen: Well, to be fair, the guy has been actively running for president for at least 5 years now (and probably doing nearly everything in life with that goal in mind for decades now), so one would think the American people would already have been pretty damn familiar with them. Of course, that might be giving the American people a little too much credit. Betting on the general population being well informed is a losing bet.

The thing that kills me, is that for a guy who's been campaigning for this long, you'd think he'd be better at it. Might have developed his skills even. Honed them. If anything, he's more wooden and stilted than when he ran for Governor in Mass...


When you've essentially had an advantage over everyone you've met or competed against for your entire life, you never need to build the skills to deliver the goods when at a disadvantage. This is why Mitt fails.
 
2012-09-05 02:26:20 PM  

RexTalionis: He had a bounce and it was measurable. He's now tied up in the polls with Obama compared to about 2 weeks ago where Obama was still about 1.5-2 points ahead.

He just didn't get as big a bounce as he would've liked (i.e. where he's a few points ahead of Obama after the RNC convention).


There really has not been enough polling since August 30th to measure any bounce. Real Clear Politics has posted only 1 poll since then and the small bounce is within the margin of error.
 
2012-09-05 02:30:22 PM  

RexTalionis: Coco LaFemme: RexTalionis: He had a bounce and it was measurable. He's now tied up in the polls with Obama compared to about 2 weeks ago where Obama was still about 1.5-2 points ahead.

He just didn't get as big a bounce as he would've liked (i.e. where he's a few points ahead of Obama after the RNC convention).

What polls? Nate Silver still has Obama winning quite handily.

Nate Silver uses a modeling system to predict what happens on November 6th, so for him, polling is only a part of the equation.

I'm talking straight up polling data. Here's the RCP average:

[i1212.photobucket.com image 603x802]

For some reason, the RCP average did not also include the Ipsos/Reuters poll from during the RNC convention, because that one showed that Romney was pulling ahead (although a later Ipsos/Reuters poll showed that the race was tied, more or less, again).


That is only 1 poll since the end of the convention. I agree that it looks like a bounce but unlikely related to the convention only. When you have all the polls from August 31 to the end of this week. You can calculate the bounce roughly. I would compare it to the polling average between July 20-27 to isolate what was happening during the convention week itself.
 
2012-09-05 02:30:50 PM  
Nate Silver's Now-Cast:

Electoral Vote:
Obama 292.2
Romney 245.8

Chance of winning:
Obama 69.7%
Romney 30.3%

Popular vote:
Obama 50.0%
Romney 48.6%
 
2012-09-05 02:31:37 PM  

mrshowrules: RexTalionis: He had a bounce and it was measurable. He's now tied up in the polls with Obama compared to about 2 weeks ago where Obama was still about 1.5-2 points ahead.

He just didn't get as big a bounce as he would've liked (i.e. where he's a few points ahead of Obama after the RNC convention).

There really has not been enough polling since August 30th to measure any bounce. Real Clear Politics has posted only 1 poll since then and the small bounce is within the margin of error.


Three, actually. Rasmussen and Gallup do trailing 3 and 7 day averages current as to today (so it includes the RNC).
 
2012-09-05 02:36:27 PM  
"You can't look only at Gallup," Newhouse says...Newhouse points to Rasmussen 

Of course he does
 
2012-09-05 02:37:06 PM  

RexTalionis: mrshowrules: RexTalionis: He had a bounce and it was measurable. He's now tied up in the polls with Obama compared to about 2 weeks ago where Obama was still about 1.5-2 points ahead.

He just didn't get as big a bounce as he would've liked (i.e. where he's a few points ahead of Obama after the RNC convention).

There really has not been enough polling since August 30th to measure any bounce. Real Clear Politics has posted only 1 poll since then and the small bounce is within the margin of error.

Three, actually. Rasmussen and Gallup do trailing 3 and 7 day averages current as to today (so it includes the RNC).


Wouldn't the 7 day average be overlapping with the 2nd and 3rd day of the convention? If you look at the chart, I think you are still seeing the Ryan nomination bump but whatever. It is pretty small.
 
2012-09-05 02:41:21 PM  

PC LOAD LETTER: RexTalionis: Nate Silver uses a modeling system to predict what happens on November 6th, so for him, polling is only a part of the equation.

I take it you never clicked the "now-cast"?


It doesn't matter! His Now-cast is still based off of a statistical model!
 
2012-09-05 02:53:53 PM  

hubiestubert: SilentStrider: hubiestubert: At this point, maybe Romney needs to have his staff humming "Little Miss Can't Be Wrong" or "Two Princes"...

The Spin Doctors would probably sue him to have them stop using their music within minutes.

They ARE still touring. But you see the chance for a Spin Doctors joke, you jump on that sh*t...


Damn right.
 
2012-09-05 03:08:08 PM  
I just farted in front of a really hot girl on the subway, but it's ok because she'll probably sleep with me.
 
2012-09-05 03:15:11 PM  

RexTalionis: PC LOAD LETTER: RexTalionis: Nate Silver uses a modeling system to predict what happens on November 6th, so for him, polling is only a part of the equation.

I take it you never clicked the "now-cast"?

It doesn't matter! His Now-cast is still based off of a statistical model!


In that polls are aggregated and weighted according to their methodology, yes. This is somehow less reliable than any single poll or other poll aggregators, who just take a straight-up average? CNN and the NYT have their own independent electoral college maps, and it's still way more favorable for Obama at this point. What do you call it when they all paint a similar picture?

Nate called the 2010 elections within 1 senate and 8 house seats. That's pretty damned good. Most of the polls are a simple popular vote poll showing Obama and Romney in a "dead heat", which really is just red states getting redder more than it represents any sort of too-close-to-call race.

The dude learned his modelling chops in baseball stats, which was pretty damn accurate too.
 
2012-09-05 03:59:53 PM  
Ya! Ya! Ya! Ya! Do you waaaaant ... do you waaaaaant ... measure unqualified successes, bouncy-bouncy?"

/I need a vacation.
 
2012-09-05 04:00:50 PM  

Mentat: I just farted in front of a really hot girl on the subway, but it's ok because she'll probably sleep with me.


If she doesn't you are either too good for her or she's a lesbian.
 
2012-09-05 04:20:34 PM  

hinten: I just stepped in dog shiat but that's okay because it means good luck.

Here I go buying lottery tickets in my squishy, smelly shoes.


You sure it's dog shiat?

Maybe you should taste it, just to be sure. Wouldn't want bad luck by stepping in chocolate.
 
2012-09-05 04:21:37 PM  
Romney has said nothing concrete this far regarding his economic policies and has been called out for his paradoxical stances as well as outright lies.......the convention was more of the same therefore no bump in the polls.
 
2012-09-05 04:23:16 PM  
Hm. Maybe the REAL reason for global warming is the increased friction between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere, caused by all the spinning going on in the Romney camp.
 
2012-09-05 04:24:13 PM  

Citrate1007: Romney has said nothing concrete this far regarding his economic policies and has been called out for his paradoxical stances as well as outright lies.......the convention was more of the same therefore no bump in the polls.


Psst. Thats because he has no idea what he's doing. Because managing a private equity fund does not give you any experience helming a nation's economy.
 
2012-09-05 04:24:32 PM  

hubiestubert: WorldCitizen: Well, to be fair, the guy has been actively running for president for at least 5 years now (and probably doing nearly everything in life with that goal in mind for decades now), so one would think the American people would already have been pretty damn familiar with them. Of course, that might be giving the American people a little too much credit. Betting on the general population being well informed is a losing bet.

The thing that kills me, is that for a guy who's been campaigning for this long, you'd think he'd be better at it. Might have developed his skills even. Honed them. If anything, he's more wooden and stilted than when he ran for Governor in Mass...


Romney's team in the morning:

img402.imageshack.us
 
2012-09-05 04:24:41 PM  
Rmoney's next house. http://www.amazon.com/Castle-Inflatable-Bounce-House-Slide/dp/B000W3JI X0/ref=pd_sxp_f_i
 
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