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(The New York Times)   Two days after the end of the GOP convention, Romney should be getting his convention bounce and seeing his fortunes rise? Nate Silver's numbers show that Obama's chances for re-election have never been higher. Great job, Invisible President Man   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 253
    More: Fail, United States Senate, FiveThirtyEight, swing states, percentage change, Democrat majority, Democrats, program designer, mid-September  
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4127 clicks; posted to Politics » on 01 Sep 2012 at 11:06 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-09-01 06:20:54 PM
Obama has gained 7.9 EV in a week. Well done.
 
2012-09-01 06:27:41 PM
Day 1 - couldn't do anything due to hurricane
Day 2 - Christie goes 20 minutes without mentioning candidate
Day 3 - Lyin' Ryan goes nuclear
Day 4 - Clint Eastwood talks to empty chair

This convention didn't do anything to help Romney? Whaaaaaaa?
 
2012-09-01 06:32:20 PM

robsul82: Day 1 - couldn't do anything due to hurricane
Day 2 - Christie goes 20 minutes without mentioning candidate
Day 3 - Lyin' Ryan goes nuclear
Day 4 - Clint Eastwood talks to empty chair

This convention didn't do anything to help Romney? Whaaaaaaa?


Even Rick Perry said that he'd love to run again - in 2016 maybe.

Either he is planning on challenging a Romney presidency OR he knows Romney doesn't have a shot in hell. When RICK PERRY can read the tea leaves, it's time to pack up and go home boys.
 
2012-09-01 09:44:09 PM
His model intentionally ignores predicted convention bounces. Way to not actually read what he writes.
 
2012-09-01 10:13:51 PM

GAT_00: His model intentionally ignores predicted convention bounces. Way to not actually read what he writes.


Umm... there's a whole article there about the polls: Rasmussen, Ipsos, Gallup. It's not all about the 538 'NowCast'.
 
2012-09-01 10:47:09 PM

propasaurus: GAT_00: His model intentionally ignores predicted convention bounces. Way to not actually read what he writes.

Umm... there's a whole article there about the polls: Rasmussen, Ipsos, Gallup. It's not all about the 538 'NowCast'.


Yeah, but the Nov 6 forecast is the main one that I'm assuming Subby is referring to, which is also the default you see when you go to 538, which tries to factor out a convention bounce.
 
2012-09-01 10:55:31 PM
I loved Ann Romney's "It's time for the grownups to take over" line. That worked on Bill Clinton because he was a womanizer. That worked on Bush because he was an aged frat boy. But Obama? If there's one thing you can't criticize him on, it's maturity. Late night comedians can't find anything about him to mock. He's a boring middle aged family man who happens to have access to the nuclear launch codes.
 
2012-09-01 11:00:52 PM
This is bad news for Obama.
 
jbc [TotalFark]
2012-09-01 11:06:13 PM

robsul82: Day 1 - couldn't do anything due to hurricane
Day 2 - Christie goes 20 minutes without mentioning candidate
Day 3 - Lyin' Ryan goes nuclear
Day 4 - Clint Eastwood talks to empty chair

This convention didn't do anything to help Romney? Whaaaaaaa?


If the empty chair can prove it wasn't made in Kenya, it might not only win the Mississippi and Kansas electoral votes Rmoney was counting on, but split the GOP vote in Texas enough to put it in play.
 
2012-09-01 11:09:24 PM
 
2012-09-01 11:10:16 PM
Once Obama turned invisible, the principle issue GOP voters had with him was gone.
 
2012-09-01 11:10:19 PM
As my stepfather used to say, "you can only polish a turd so much," and Romney's as friggin' shiny as he's going to get.
 
2012-09-01 11:11:39 PM
I think we're probably in an era where convention bounces will never be particularly high, because the candidates have so much exposure all year.
 
2012-09-01 11:12:05 PM
You are welcome.

Or better yet, go fark yourself.
 
2012-09-01 11:13:34 PM
In all fairness, shouldn't the truest stats be on next tuesday's showing?

I hope we still see the same rise then but, it was explained to me earlier this year, that the poll results can be delayed. By as much as a week sometimes.
 
2012-09-01 11:14:28 PM
I follow 538 like any good politics honk should but even I'm wondering what the heck is going on. I know he uses more than polls. I know economic indicators and the like factor in but this seems...wrong. The sheer amount of pissed off Conservatives and (other) low-information voters should be making his numbers more even, no?
 
2012-09-01 11:15:16 PM

Mentat: I loved Ann Romney's "It's time for the grownups to take over" line. That worked on Bill Clinton because he was a womanizer. That worked on Bush because he was an aged frat boy. But Obama? If there's one thing you can't criticize him on, it's maturity. Late night comedians can't find anything about him to mock. He's a boring middle aged family man who happens to have access to the nuclear launch codes.


You see the puzzle, though. The handlers for these idiots are using lines that worked in the past, because there's nothing they can pull out of their playbooks that trumps "a decade of war, depression, and fascism." The GOP's best candidate is a man who became rich by dodging taxes on the proceeds of destroying middle-class and lower-class jobs, a man who can't even fake empathy, never mind sympathy, competing against the guy that has, slowly, reversed nearly a decade of war and depression (Obama does need to work on the friggin' fascism, however...), and so this is the best they can do.

LouDobbsAwaaaay: Once Obama turned invisible, the principle issue GOP voters had with him was gone.


There's that too. (I had to grin at that - "but, but, but... you're blek!")
 
2012-09-01 11:15:18 PM
Well, Ronmey's bounce from announcing Ryan was tepid, and over the course of the lead-up to the convention Obama's numbers have slowly ticked upwards. I'll be more inclined to believe the convention did nothing for Romney if Silver's numbers bear out for the first couple of days next week.

And if Obama starts dumping money into NC and AZ, then you know it's taken a turn for the worse for Romney.
 
2012-09-01 11:17:24 PM

FormlessOne: As my stepfather used to say, "you can only polish a turd so much," and Romney's as friggin' shiny as he's going to get.


Link

While I agree with your assessment of Romney, to be fair, you can get a decent polish on a turd.
 
2012-09-01 11:17:51 PM

FormlessOne: You see the puzzle, though. The handlers for these idiots are using lines that worked in the past, because there's nothing they can pull out of their playbooks that trumps "a decade of war, depression, and fascism." The GOP's best candidate is a man who became rich by dodging taxes on the proceeds of destroying middle-class and lower-class jobs, a man who can't even fake empathy, never mind sympathy, competing against the guy that has, slowly, reversed nearly a decade of war and depression (Obama does need to work on the friggin' fascism, however...), and so this is the best they can do.


I don't usually agree with political speeches but Obama is spot on when he mentioned that the GOP is using the same lines that they did in the past and not offering any new ideas.
 
2012-09-01 11:18:02 PM
Let's see what happens next week. Biden could drool on his tie or something.
 
2012-09-01 11:19:04 PM

Mrtraveler01: FormlessOne: You see the puzzle, though. The handlers for these idiots are using lines that worked in the past, because there's nothing they can pull out of their playbooks that trumps "a decade of war, depression, and fascism." The GOP's best candidate is a man who became rich by dodging taxes on the proceeds of destroying middle-class and lower-class jobs, a man who can't even fake empathy, never mind sympathy, competing against the guy that has, slowly, reversed nearly a decade of war and depression (Obama does need to work on the friggin' fascism, however...), and so this is the best they can do.

I don't usually agree with political speeches but Obama is spot on when he mentioned that the GOP is using the same lines that they did in the past and not offering any new ideas.


"...Might as well have watched the convention on a black & white TV..."
 
2012-09-01 11:19:09 PM

The Great EZE: I follow 538 like any good politics honk should but even I'm wondering what the heck is going on. I know he uses more than polls. I know economic indicators and the like factor in but this seems...wrong. The sheer amount of pissed off Conservatives and (other) low-information voters should be making his numbers more even, no?


I've been feeling the same unease for a while now. But I guess the thing to remember is that 70% chances in the election is not anywhere near an air-tight seal-up.

And the way things are balanced right now, things could go lop-sided for Obama really quickly. If the numbers in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia were to change overnight, which they could based on a few percentage points, the overall numbers would change very drastically.

/in before "concern troll"
 
2012-09-01 11:19:18 PM
Romney's only hope now is the debates.
 
2012-09-01 11:19:37 PM

The Great EZE: I follow 538 like any good politics honk should but even I'm wondering what the heck is going on. I know he uses more than polls. I know economic indicators and the like factor in but this seems...wrong. The sheer amount of pissed off Conservatives and (other) low-information voters should be making his numbers more even, no?


I think even they know a loser when they see one. Romney just isn't the guy to fire up the base, and we're seeing it with the underwhelming convention . When the debates roll around, and Obama can address the bald faced lies head on, its going to get ugly for Mittens.
 
2012-09-01 11:20:02 PM

The Great EZE: I follow 538 like any good politics honk should but even I'm wondering what the heck is going on. I know he uses more than polls. I know economic indicators and the like factor in but this seems...wrong. The sheer amount of pissed off Conservatives and (other) low-information voters should be making his numbers more even, no?


The GOP's tent is so small at this point that there just aren't enough of those anymore. Old white guys just aren't going to be enough for them. This will be the last election that the GOP relies on them as their primary base of support.
 
2012-09-01 11:20:12 PM

UNC_Samurai: Well, Ronmey's bounce from announcing Ryan was tepid, and over the course of the lead-up to the convention Obama's numbers have slowly ticked upwards. I'll be more inclined to believe the convention did nothing for Romney if Silver's numbers bear out for the first couple of days next week.

And if Obama starts dumping money into NC and AZ, then you know it's taken a turn for the worse for Romney.


strangely enough, isnt there another convention soon which will/should negate most or all of the RNC convention bump?
You know what would work for me? have both conventions on the same day.
faux news could cover their convention and the rest of the channels could cover both.
 
2012-09-01 11:20:32 PM

Clint Eastwoods Chair: FormlessOne: As my stepfather used to say, "you can only polish a turd so much," and Romney's as friggin' shiny as he's going to get.

Link

While I agree with your assessment of Romney, to be fair, you can get a decent polish on a turd.


Yeah, I've seen that link, but the statement still stands. :)
 
2012-09-01 11:20:36 PM
I have a policy of never reading anything in the NYT because they are buried so deep in my Bullshiat Meter I cannot believe a single thing they write. This is what happens when journalists lose credibility.
 
2012-09-01 11:20:49 PM

The Great EZE: I follow 538 like any good politics honk should but even I'm wondering what the heck is going on. I know he uses more than polls. I know economic indicators and the like factor in but this seems...wrong. The sheer amount of pissed off Conservatives and (other) low-information voters should be making his numbers more even, no?


He still has Romney winning about 47.9% of the popular vote. That's pretty even.
 
2012-09-01 11:20:59 PM

Bucky Katt: Let's see what happens next week. Biden could drool on his tie or something.


If Biden comes out on stage and says "hi y'all, how y'all doin'? Sure is good to be here with y'all..." the right will lose their minds.
 
2012-09-01 11:21:06 PM
Never tell him the odds.
 
2012-09-01 11:21:12 PM

The Great EZE: good politics honk


img.photobucket.com
 
2012-09-01 11:21:17 PM

farkityfarker: Romney's only hope now is the debates.


If that's really true, he's so farked.
 
2012-09-01 11:21:57 PM

farkityfarker: Romney's only hope now is the debates.


Yeah, because Obama is terrible in debates.
 
2012-09-01 11:22:09 PM

cameroncrazy1984: The GOP's tent is so small at this point that there just aren't enough of those anymore. Old white guys just aren't going to be enough for them. This will be the last election that the GOP relies on them as their primary base of support.


What exactly are the GOP going to do in 2016?
Sure there is a chance that the dems will run a lesbian Muslim, but still.
Everything else being equal, what changes to the GOP platform will actually be made that would attract voters??
 
2012-09-01 11:22:12 PM

Vindibudd: I have a policy of never reading anything in the NYT because they are buried so deep in my Bullshiat Meter I cannot believe a single thing they write. This is what happens when journalists lose credibility.


Why, specifically?
 
2012-09-01 11:22:36 PM

The Great EZE: I follow 538 like any good politics honk should but even I'm wondering what the heck is going on. I know he uses more than polls. I know economic indicators and the like factor in but this seems...wrong. The sheer amount of pissed off Conservatives and (other) low-information voters should be making his numbers more even, no?


I know a lot of Republicans who hate Obama but it's like Romney doesn't even exist. They don't even want to acknowledge that the Republicans are fielding him as a candidate this year.
 
2012-09-01 11:23:04 PM

namatad: Everything else being equal, what changes to the GOP platform will actually be made that would attract voters??


Will? I don't know. They should tack far more to the center, but I seriously doubt they'll be able to for a few more elections. Between now and then? They'll just lose, and lose big.
 
2012-09-01 11:23:07 PM

Bucky Katt: Let's see what happens next week. Biden could drool on his tie or something.


Already trying to come up with DNC drinking games.

Would "take a shot every time Bill Clinton says "I"" be a bit much?
 
2012-09-01 11:23:27 PM

Vindibudd: I have a policy of never reading anything in the NYT because they are buried so deep in my Bullshiat Meter I cannot believe a single thing they write. This is what happens when journalists lose credibility. do not reinforce what I already believe in

 
2012-09-01 11:23:35 PM

cameroncrazy1984: The Great EZE: I follow 538 like any good politics honk should but even I'm wondering what the heck is going on. I know he uses more than polls. I know economic indicators and the like factor in but this seems...wrong. The sheer amount of pissed off Conservatives and (other) low-information voters should be making his numbers more even, no?

The GOP's tent is so small at this point that there just aren't enough of those anymore. Old white guys just aren't going to be enough for them. This will be the last election that the GOP relies on them as their primary base of support.


I can't wait to see what they're going to do when they have to rely on something other than old white guys...

Seriously, I can't fathom how the GOP, a party that for the last half-century has moved to represent the old, white, Christian, conservative voter, can break out - there's simply too much baggage there to move forward without pretty much destroying the party itself.
 
2012-09-01 11:23:38 PM

namatad: cameroncrazy1984: The GOP's tent is so small at this point that there just aren't enough of those anymore. Old white guys just aren't going to be enough for them. This will be the last election that the GOP relies on them as their primary base of support.

What exactly are the GOP going to do in 2016?
Sure there is a chance that the dems will run a lesbian Muslim, but still.
Everything else being equal, what changes to the GOP platform will actually be made that would attract voters??


In 2016, they'll run JEB and pretend he's Latino.
 
2012-09-01 11:24:21 PM
It can't help that the entire convention was filled with half-truths and lies.

Those may play to the party base but won't help with actual independents who don't drink the flavor-aid.

/I did like Clint Eastwood's rant to to an empty chair, it probably had fewer straight out lies then other keynote speakers and had a theatrical fare. Although it should have been rehearsed more.
 
2012-09-01 11:25:14 PM

GhostFish: The Great EZE: I follow 538 like any good politics honk should but even I'm wondering what the heck is going on. I know he uses more than polls. I know economic indicators and the like factor in but this seems...wrong. The sheer amount of pissed off Conservatives and (other) low-information voters should be making his numbers more even, no?

He still has Romney winning about 47.9% of the popular vote. That's pretty even.


But the problem is that he's still behind in states like Ohio, PA, MI and WI which is why I think Silver is saying that Obama has a 70% chance of winning.

And even if Romney does manage to take WI with the Ryan bump, if he doesn't pick up Ohio as well. Then it's still a lost cause for Romney.
 
2012-09-01 11:26:22 PM
Some guy who writes for the New York Post (the Fox News of newspapers) is OH SO VERY CONCERNED that the special guest speaker at the Democrats' convention might upstage their candidate.

Like I said in another thread, it's gonna be a long weekend for them.
 
2012-09-01 11:27:28 PM

namatad: cameroncrazy1984: The GOP's tent is so small at this point that there just aren't enough of those anymore. Old white guys just aren't going to be enough for them. This will be the last election that the GOP relies on them as their primary base of support.

What exactly are the GOP going to do in 2016?
Sure there is a chance that the dems will run a lesbian Muslim, but still.
Everything else being equal, what changes to the GOP platform will actually be made that would attract voters??


Do we even have any early favorites for 2016 on the Dem side? People say Hillary and/or Biden are the obvious choices, but I don't think so. Neither are getting any younger.
 
2012-09-01 11:27:38 PM

farkityfarker: Romney's only hope now is the debates.


So four more years than? Great.

No YOU Shut up.
 
2012-09-01 11:27:57 PM

Enemabag Jones: /I did like Clint Eastwood's rant to to an empty chair, it probably had fewer straight out lies then other keynote speakers and had a theatrical fare.


That's only because you could only hear half of the dialogue.
 
2012-09-01 11:29:23 PM

Vindibudd: I have a policy of never reading anything in the NYT because they are buried so deep in my Bullshiat Meter I cannot believe a single thing they write. This is what happens when journalists lose credibility.


Attack the NYT all you want, but Nate's final 2008 presidential election forecast accurately predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia (missing only the prediction for Indiana). As his model predicted, the races in Missouri and North Carolina were particularly close. He also correctly predicted the winners of every U.S. Senate race.
 
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