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(CNBC)   Are we nearing peak Chinese retail story?   (cnbc.com) divider line 19
    More: Scary, Chinese, CNBC Asia, long-term assets, BRK  
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2529 clicks; posted to Business » on 29 Aug 2012 at 11:30 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-08-29 09:12:37 AM
The problem I saw the last time I was in China was that a lot of people were complaining that inflation is outstripping wages. Food prices and fuel prices have increased something like 30-50% since I was in the country last (about 1 year prior).
 
vpb [TotalFark]
2012-08-29 09:24:19 AM
Peak Chinese? This sounds serious. I hope it doesn't affect the dumpling supply.
 
2012-08-29 10:09:21 AM
China is due for the nastiest bubble ever.
 
2012-08-29 11:56:54 AM
We will know it is bad when refugees start piling into North Korea.
 
2012-08-29 12:10:39 PM

TheGreatGazoo: We will know it is bad when refugees start piling into North Korea.


From what I hear, it's the best of the two.
 
2012-08-29 12:21:42 PM

bdub77: China is due for the nastiest bubble ever.


Yeah, but then they'll want to have another bubble in an hour or so.
 
2012-08-29 12:29:30 PM
While China desperately tries to grow a middle class to support spending in it's economy before other countries take over it's position as manufacturer of cheap goods, America works to kill it's middle class off to be more like China. Fact the Chinese middle class is growing. Will it be fast enough to save them? Don't know. Fact American middle class continues to shrink. How long until the economy collapses and America is like Mexico with just the very rich and the very poor?
 
2012-08-29 12:35:20 PM

KarmicDisaster: While China desperately tries to grow a middle class to support spending in it's economy before other countries take over it's position as manufacturer of cheap goods, America works to kill it's middle class off to be more like China. Fact the Chinese middle class is growing. Will it be fast enough to save them? Don't know. Fact American middle class continues to shrink. How long until the economy collapses and America is like Mexico with just the very rich and the very poor?


We're pretty much already there, people just haven't figured it out yet.
 
2012-08-29 01:00:19 PM

bdub77: KarmicDisaster: While China desperately tries to grow a middle class to support spending in it's economy before other countries take over it's position as manufacturer of cheap goods, America works to kill it's middle class off to be more like China. Fact the Chinese middle class is growing. Will it be fast enough to save them? Don't know. Fact American middle class continues to shrink. How long until the economy collapses and America is like Mexico with just the very rich and the very poor?

We're pretty much already there, people just haven't figured it out yet.


They still have a little room left on their credit cards.
 
2012-08-29 02:11:48 PM
Been saying for years than China would collapse just like Japan in the 1990s. It's utterly inevitable. Their banking and corporate culture is fundamentally f*cked.

I give China 15 years before a civil war breaks out, too.
 
2012-08-29 02:12:26 PM
Too bad Fritz Hollings is long gone.
 
2012-08-29 02:15:14 PM

KarmicDisaster: While China desperately tries to grow a middle class to support spending in it's economy before other countries take over it's position as manufacturer of cheap goods, America works to kill it's middle class off to be more like China. Fact the Chinese middle class is growing. Will it be fast enough to save them? Don't know. Fact American middle class continues to shrink. How long until the economy collapses and America is like Mexico with just the very rich and the very poor?


America's problems are speed bumps compared to what China is facing. Yes, the American middle class is shrinking, but it's as much due to misguided right-wing policy as anything, and is correctable. China is on a one-way track to Sh*tstown, with no brakes.
 
2012-08-29 03:34:11 PM

SacriliciousBeerSwiller: KarmicDisaster: While China desperately tries to grow a middle class to support spending in it's economy before other countries take over it's position as manufacturer of cheap goods, America works to kill it's middle class off to be more like China. Fact the Chinese middle class is growing. Will it be fast enough to save them? Don't know. Fact American middle class continues to shrink. How long until the economy collapses and America is like Mexico with just the very rich and the very poor?

America's problems are speed bumps compared to what China is facing. Yes, the American middle class is shrinking, but it's as much due to misguided right-wing policy as anything, and is correctable. China is on a one-way track to Sh*tstown, with no brakes.


Well, yeah. I've been talking to a family member that is an economist and also has spent quite a bit of time in China recently. The main problem is that the government is sort of propping up their economy with building projects. Combine that with the limited investment opportunities for the average (non high ranking party member) person there (your choices are the state bank with fixed interest rate less than inflation, or buy property (you can't own land, so that's out)). So it is quite common for individuals or small groups of people to buy an unneeded apartment as an investment, which then sits empty but drives the housing bubble. When that bubble pops, and it will, they are really going to be in trouble. As for the high ranking party members, they are not helping by taking their skimmings and bribes and moving them overseas, even though overseas investment is not supposed to be allowed. So money is constantly being funneled out. Going to be a real mess, and it is not clear that they will be able to grow a middle class and switch to a service economy in time.
 
2012-08-29 03:56:31 PM

KarmicDisaster: While China desperately tries to grow a middle class to support spending in it's economy before other countries take over it's position as manufacturer of cheap goods, America works to kill it's middle class off to be more like China. Fact the Chinese middle class is growing. Will it be fast enough to save them? Don't know. Fact American middle class continues to shrink. How long until the economy collapses and America is like Mexico with just the very rich and the very poor?


beyond economic imbalances and environmental problems, china also faces a significant demographics problem.

by 2030, 1/3 of China's working population will be over 60 years old, and the country will have a significant shortage of women.

if people are not building families, domestic consumption will not take off.
 
2012-08-29 04:37:15 PM
From an investment point of view, how would one take advantage of China collapsing? It will trash the global economy when it happens, but there has to be a way to take advantage of it.
 
2012-08-29 05:18:43 PM

SacriliciousBeerSwiller: Been saying for years than China would collapse just like Japan in the 1990s. It's utterly inevitable. Their banking and corporate culture is fundamentally f*cked.

I give China 15 years before a civil war breaks out, too.


Japan's economy was always going to flatline because of their demographics. China looks like it's going to stabilise at 1-1.5 billion or so... So they're not going away. If they grow to be half as rich as the US, their economy will be twice the size as the US.

Some Chinese banks are flaky. You know what ? So are a lot of banks elsewhere. The Chinese government knows it can bail them out as and when necessary.

So,no. There may be a "hard landing". There will be no collapse and no civil war. (except possibly amongst the Politburo)
 
2012-08-29 06:22:05 PM

Bleyo: From an investment point of view, how would one take advantage of China collapsing? It will trash the global economy when it happens, but there has to be a way to take advantage of it.


I hear Bain Capitol will soon be out-sourcing Chinese jobs to the Zimbabwes of the world.

Of course, you may not meet their net worth minimums to invest with them. Sucks to be you.
 
2012-08-30 08:54:27 AM

KarmicDisaster: While China desperately tries to grow a middle class to support spending in it's economy before other countries take over it's position as manufacturer of cheap goods, America works to kill it's middle class off to be more like China. Fact the Chinese middle class is growing. Will it be fast enough to save them? Don't know. Fact American middle class continues to shrink. How long until the economy collapses and America is like Mexico with just the very rich and the very poor?


Clinton killed us 20 years ago. What we are experiencing now is our slow death.
 
2012-08-30 02:02:04 PM

Nemo's Brother: Clinton killed us 20 years ago. What we are experiencing now is our slow death.


Fear not. President Rmoney will finish what Clinton started.
 
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