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(Talking Points Memo)   GOP on Wisconsin: We got this. Latest polls: No, you don't   (2012.talkingpointsmemo.com) divider line 115
    More: Amusing, GOP, Wisconsin, Beloit College, Stephanie Cutter, Reince Priebus, RNC, Fourteen Points, swing states  
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4021 clicks; posted to Politics » on 29 Aug 2012 at 8:38 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-08-29 08:27:51 AM
Um. The polls/charts in TFA say, "Yes, they might."
 
2012-08-29 08:40:53 AM
Yeah, WI is definitely a tossup right now. Although, keep in mind that right now should be Mitt's best polling days, between the VP pick and his convention. They may lose ground in WI again. Too soon to say.
 
2012-08-29 08:43:20 AM
The exit polling in Walker's recall showed that the deciding factor for independents and moderates was that they were uncomfortable with the recall process itself and wanted to give the guy in office a full term.
 
2012-08-29 08:45:17 AM
Because we govern like we campaign.

Terribly?
 
2012-08-29 08:45:46 AM
TPM is a Liberal site.
 
2012-08-29 08:47:25 AM
They can always add a few extra ballots for Romney.

kochwatch.org

This is what passes for chain of custody.
 
2012-08-29 08:47:35 AM
So they pick up WI, but lose FL because of the proposed fundamental change to Medicare vouchers that seniors don't like.
 
2012-08-29 08:47:46 AM

Aarontology: Because we govern like we campaign.

Terribly?


I think they mean they're a pack of cheaters.
 
2012-08-29 08:48:54 AM

xanadian: Um. The polls/charts in TFA say, "Yes, they might."


To expand a little further... the polls have gotten a little tighter after picking Paul Ryan, but Obama's still ahead by a little. The state's definitely not a safe Dem state right now. Worth noting however that Nate Silver still projects a 71% of Obama carrying WI in his statistical model.
 
2012-08-29 08:50:20 AM
There was a massive amount of GOP enthusiasm around the recall and they just got a Wisconsin son on the ticket. This is their best polling in months. They're still losing.

Good luck with flipping a state that hasn't voted GOP since the biggest landslide in the history of landslides.
 
2012-08-29 08:51:03 AM

LouDobbsAwaaaay: Aarontology: Because we govern like we campaign.

Terribly?

I think they mean they're a pack of cheaters.


Now that I think about it, it makes sense. Walker didn't explicitly campaign on busting public unions that didn't contribute to his campaign, so when he did, they couldn't accuse him of lying.

Kind of like how Romney has flat out said he won't talk about actual issues, or policies, or anything.

So a bunch of bullshiat, I guess.
 
2012-08-29 08:51:46 AM

fracto: They can always add a few extra ballots for Romney.

[kochwatch.org image 252x378]

This is what passes for chain of custody.


I recognize that plastic tie! that's the one they used on Walter White!
 
2012-08-29 08:53:47 AM
subtard did you look at the same graph? it shows Romney and Obama getting closer in the polls as time has gone by.
 
2012-08-29 08:54:26 AM

Edsel: Nate Silver still projects a 71% of Obama carrying WI in his statistical model.


Came here to say this.
 
2012-08-29 08:54:43 AM
Seriously, Walker has 52% job approval?

Are 52% of Wisconsinites masochists or something?
 
2012-08-29 08:58:25 AM

Gunther: Seriously, Walker has 52% job approval?

Are 52% of Wisconsinites masochists or something?


There's a reason the state was renamed Wississippi.


HINT: cheap work force; not very smart voters
 
2012-08-29 08:59:19 AM
Wisconsin? If the Republicans are banking on that, then it's time to stick the fork in.
 
2012-08-29 09:00:12 AM
xanadian:
Um. The polls/charts in TFA say, "Yes, they might."

Yeah, that was my thought, too. Obviously, the ONLY poll that really counts is the one where you close the curtain and vote, but it appears Romney is almost dead even with Obama, and Romney's numbers are improving. A serious swing in the economy, in either direction, would probably seal it, an upswing for Obama, and a downswing for Romney. There is also the "piss on the pollster" effect -- that is, pollsters (the ones taking the answers down) are generally on the leftist end. Many people who are fed up with Obama SAY they will support Obama when a pollster asks, because they are tired of being called a racist for not supporting Obama. I know the poll designers are trying to account for this, but it's difficult, and polls are probably slanted more towards Obama than the vote will be.

Additionally, while Obama still has the majority of the press solidly in his corner, it's not as easy to hide things when one has been President for four years. And the "Hope and Change" has turned, for the most part, to "Blame and Fear," which isn't as easy a sell. And, while Obama is correct that the start of our current problems was in the GWB administration, he has had four years, and rather than turn things around, and nearly quadrupled down on spending, and is always asking for more.

As I see it, if he HAD reined in spending, rather than increasing it, and closed Gitmo, and, etc. etc. as he promised, we would be in a much better financial situation, and he'd be freaking unbeatable -- the Republicans would be deciding who got the honor of having their ass handed to them by Obama. As it is, though, with numbers trending the way they are, Obama could EASILY lose this.
 
2012-08-29 09:02:06 AM
I don't know what subby's trying to sell, but I'm a liberal and even I can see that TFA shows WI as a toss up at this point.
 
2012-08-29 09:03:20 AM

jack21221: Edsel: Nate Silver still projects a 71% of Obama carrying WI in his statistical model.

Came here to say this.


that what I based the headline on

/subby
 
2012-08-29 09:06:42 AM

themeaningoflifeisnot: I don't know what subby's trying to sell, but I'm a liberal and even I can see that TFA shows WI as a toss up at this point.


If it's a tossup, would that not mean that they don't "got this"?

/not subby
 
2012-08-29 09:07:26 AM

meat0918: So they pick up WI, but lose FL because of the proposed fundamental change to Medicare vouchers that seniors don't like.


Only people under 55 (not seniors those folks) are affected by vouchers. Romney will lose Florida because he's a mental douchebag with mental douchebag staff in FL. I'm curious, any Farkers who are lawyers, if you vote early but die before November in Florida do they find your ballot and discount it or what? Actually, that question applies to all states. There has been a pretty large increase in absentee voting nationwide if the news reports are/were accurate.

No poll anywhere means a thing until after the 2nd debate. Apparently there are some really uninformed and silly people somewhere who haven't made up with passes for their mind yet. And then there's this whole voting fraud problem . . .
 
2012-08-29 09:10:40 AM

GeneralJim: he has had four years, and rather than turn things around, and nearly quadrupled down on spending, and is always asking for more.


When the thing you say differ so dramatically from reality, no one is going to take you seriously.
 
2012-08-29 09:13:52 AM

Gunther: Seriously, Walker has 52% job approval?

Are 52% of Wisconsinites masochists or something?


Nope, they just disagree with you while you keep looking down on them... Ever consider what they think of your stances on things?
 
2012-08-29 09:14:31 AM
The Republicans will win because the DPW is the gigantic clusterfark of idiots. My town, which always goes blue, is plastered with GOP yard signs... I've seen literally five Dem signs. I have no idea what they're even doing. They expect to win because gosh darn it they're RIGHT, as if simply being right has anything to do with success in politics. People don't want to be right- they want to win. It doesn't matter what the policies are. They want to be on the winning team because that might make them winners too. The Democrats managed to take the biggest spontaneous mass popular protest movement in state history and drive it straight into the ground within a few months, and they'll do the same thing by November. The only good thing that might come out of this is the final demise of the DPW, so we can stop wasting so much time, energy, and money on their bullshiat, and start really organizing and resisting.
 
2012-08-29 09:15:43 AM

theknuckler_33: no one is going to take you seriously.


I thought nobody took him seriously because he always changes his posts to green like it makes it better or something
 
2012-08-29 09:17:27 AM

bulldg4life: theknuckler_33: no one is going to take you seriously.

I thought nobody took him seriously because he always changes his posts to green like it makes it better or something


2! The two main reasons nobody takes him seriously are hyperbole, green text, and and almost fanatical devotion to the right. ... 3!
 
2012-08-29 09:22:37 AM
RanDomino

The Republicans will win because the DPW is the gigantic clusterfark of idiots. My town, which always goes blue, is plastered with GOP yard signs... I've seen literally five Dem signs. I have no idea what they're even doing. They expect to win because gosh darn it they're RIGHT, as if simply being right has anything to do with success in politics. People don't want to be right- they want to win. It doesn't matter what the policies are. They want to be on the winning team because that might make them winners too. The Democrats managed to take the biggest spontaneous mass popular protest movement in state history and drive it straight into the ground within a few months, and they'll do the same thing by November. The only good thing that might come out of this is the final demise of the DPW, so we can stop wasting so much time, energy, and money on their bullshiat, and start really organizing and resisting.



You need to do what any red-blooded American Democrat (sounds like an oxymoron, doesn't it?) would do.....vote and vote often.
 
2012-08-29 09:25:33 AM
It's quite common for people to elect different parties at different levels of the government. You want Democrats in DC to hand out money and Republicans at the state level to suck it up and demand more.

Right, Bobby?
 
2012-08-29 09:25:50 AM

GeneralJim: xanadian: Um. The polls/charts in TFA say, "Yes, they might."
Yeah, that was my thought, too. Obviously, the ONLY poll that really counts is the one where you close the curtain and vote, but it appears Romney is almost dead even with Obama, and Romney's numbers are improving. A serious swing in the economy, in either direction, would probably seal it, an upswing for Obama, and a downswing for Romney. There is also the "piss on the pollster" effect -- that is, pollsters (the ones taking the answers down) are generally on the leftist end. Many people who are fed up with Obama SAY they will support Obama when a pollster asks, because they are tired of being called a racist for not supporting Obama. I know the poll designers are trying to account for this, but it's difficult, and polls are probably slanted more towards Obama than the vote will be.

Additionally, while Obama still has the majority of the press solidly in his corner, it's not as easy to hide things when one has been President for four years. And the "Hope and Change" has turned, for the most part, to "Blame and Fear," which isn't as easy a sell. And, while Obama is correct that the start of our current problems was in the GWB administration, he has had four years, and rather than turn things around, and nearly quadrupled down on spending, and is always asking for more.

As I see it, if he HAD reined in spending, rather than increasing it, and closed Gitmo, and, etc. etc. as he promised, we would be in a much better financial situation, and he'd be freaking unbeatable -- the Republicans would be deciding who got the honor of having their ass handed to them by Obama. As it is, though, with numbers trending the way they are, Obama could EASILY lose this.


This person's opinion can safely be discarded.
 
2012-08-29 09:26:25 AM

GeneralJim: xanadian: Um. The polls/charts in TFA say, "Yes, they might."
Yeah, that was my thought, too. Obviously, the ONLY poll that really counts is the one where you close the curtain and vote, but it appears Romney is almost dead even with Obama, and Romney's numbers are improving. A serious swing in the economy, in either direction, would probably seal it, an upswing for Obama, and a downswing for Romney. There is also the "piss on the pollster" effect -- that is, pollsters (the ones taking the answers down) are generally on the leftist end. Many people who are fed up with Obama SAY they will support Obama when a pollster asks, because they are tired of being called a racist for not supporting Obama. I know the poll designers are trying to account for this, but it's difficult, and polls are probably slanted more towards Obama than the vote will be.

Additionally, while Obama still has the majority of the press solidly in his corner, it's not as easy to hide things when one has been President for four years. And the "Hope and Change" has turned, for the most part, to "Blame and Fear," which isn't as easy a sell. And, while Obama is correct that the start of our current problems was in the GWB administration, he has had four years, and rather than turn things around, and nearly quadrupled down on spending, and is always asking for more.

As I see it, if he HAD reined in spending, rather than increasing it, and closed Gitmo, and, etc. etc. as he promised, we would be in a much better financial situation, and he'd be freaking unbeatable -- the Republicans would be deciding who got the honor of having their ass handed to them by Obama. As it is, though, with numbers trending the way they are, Obama could EASILY lose this.


Why didn't Obama keep all those promises that our party blocked him from keeping? Whaaaaaaaaargarble!
 
2012-08-29 09:35:12 AM
The polls are tightening, but they generally still show Obama in the lead. There's a common misconception about margin of error that says every poll within the MOE is a tie. That's not true. It means there's less than a 95% chance that the candidate in the lead is really in the lead. Obama being up by 1-2 points means there's somewhere around a 60-80% chance that he's really in the lead.

/tmyk
 
2012-08-29 09:35:25 AM

Spaz-master: Gunther: Seriously, Walker has 52% job approval?

Are 52% of Wisconsinites masochists or something?

Nope, they just disagree with you while you keep looking down on them... Ever consider what they think of your stances on things?


I don't think I could convey to you just how little I give a crap what some random GOP voter from Wisconsin thinks about my stances.
 
2012-08-29 09:40:32 AM

xanadian: Um. The polls/charts in TFA say, "Yes, they might."


This. Wisconsin is indeed a horse race but who cares.
 
2012-08-29 09:44:31 AM

Spaz-master: Ever consider what they think of your stances on things?


I thought stances only mattered in a Minnesota airport.
 
2012-08-29 09:46:53 AM
Wisconsin's only a good Medicare and/or immigration question away from being a landslide for Obama.

If Romney/Ryan stick with the ridiculous Medicare crap they've proposed before then it'll kill them in Wisconsin where the Republicans are all old white people. Or if they attempt to court the latino vote too strongly in Florida and Texas then they'll answer the inevitable immigration question wrong and the old white people in Wisconsin will murder them in the election.

Whatever they do to win Wisconsin will cost them the rest of the battleground states, and the other way arount too.
 
2012-08-29 09:47:16 AM
Nate Silver is the final word when it comes to polling in my view.

According to Nate Obama has a greater than 70% chance of winning WI.

Oh and FL is likely to go to Obama too. There is no path to victory for the GOP without FL.
 
2012-08-29 09:50:24 AM

Serious Black: The polls are tightening, but they generally still show Obama in the lead. There's a common misconception about margin of error that says every poll within the MOE is a tie. That's not true. It means there's less than a 95% chance that the candidate in the lead is really in the lead. Obama being up by 1-2 points means there's somewhere around a 60-80% chance that he's really in the lead.

/tmyk


A similar shift happened in '08, when McCain tied Obama in national polls after the Republican convention. Convention and VP bumps fade by election day, and none of it changes the electoral math. which still heavily favors Obama.

To win, Romney needs either a game changer or a turnout demographic miracle. Even if the voter ID disenfranchisement efforts manage to pull a state or two, it's still not enough.
 
2012-08-29 09:53:42 AM
CPennypacker .

Why didn't Obama keep all those promises that our party blocked him from keeping? Whaaaaaaaaargarble!



GOP blocked him from closing GITMO? There was opposition to that one from both sides. Plus it came down to the sheer logistics of how to shut the doors of Guantanamo and send all the inmates home. This is one case of the president's mouth writing a check his ass couldn't cash.
 
2012-08-29 09:53:50 AM

LasersHurt: bulldg4life: theknuckler_33: no one is going to take you seriously.

I thought nobody took him seriously because he always changes his posts to green like it makes it better or something

2! The two main reasons nobody takes him seriously are hyperbole, green text, and and almost fanatical devotion to the right. ... 3!


You forgot ugly, lazy, and disrespectful.
 
2012-08-29 09:54:00 AM

xanadian: Um. The polls/charts in TFA say, "Yes, they might."


Depends; are the polls only calling people with landlines? (Leaves minorities and young voters out)
Or are they only calling mostly white voters? Single poll results can be skewed any way you want depending on what group you're using as your sample.
 
2012-08-29 09:54:43 AM

natazha: It's quite common for people to elect different parties at different levels of the government. You want Democrats in DC to hand out money and Republicans at the state level to suck it up and demand more.

Right, Bobby?


I dunno. I have more fiscally conservative democrats in my local government than fiscally conservative Republicans, but that's not saying the Republicans are not asking to spend more money on stuff.

The local Republicans are saying cut taxes but keep "essential" services as untouched as possible, which makes about as much sense as a person saying, "I'm going to purposely reduce my income but keep my spending untouched." Problem is, the "essential" for the politician boils down to "things that keep me in office". That's fiscal insanity, not fiscal conservatism.

The local Democrats would like to see taxes increased to cover the cost of operating the services the people have demanded and in many cases voted for. Things like police, the jail, fire protection, schools, roads, etc.

And with federal timber payments around here soon to go away, the people around me will have to face a hard truth. Either raise taxes to cover what the feds used to pick up, or have a precipitous drop in services and quality of life. 

And that's not even getting into what the state and locals got themselves into regarding retirements. It's a contract though, rework it or honor it. Don't just change it though legislative fiat.
 
2012-08-29 09:57:22 AM
The only way for Rmoney to win is to carry Florida and 7 of the 8 other swing states. Ain't gonna happen. Short of a huge October surprise, it's over.
 
2012-08-29 10:00:21 AM

imontheinternet: Serious Black: The polls are tightening, but they generally still show Obama in the lead. There's a common misconception about margin of error that says every poll within the MOE is a tie. That's not true. It means there's less than a 95% chance that the candidate in the lead is really in the lead. Obama being up by 1-2 points means there's somewhere around a 60-80% chance that he's really in the lead.

/tmyk

A similar shift happened in '08, when McCain tied Obama in national polls after the Republican convention. Convention and VP bumps fade by election day, and none of it changes the electoral math. which still heavily favors Obama.

To win, Romney needs either a game changer or a turnout demographic miracle. Even if the voter ID disenfranchisement efforts manage to pull a state or two, it's still not enough.


Yes, this is also true. It would be incredibly rare for the bump seen in Wisconsin over the last week to solidify, let alone grow into a GOP lead. I can't think of the last time a VP nomination actually gave a candidate a state they would have lost otherwise. Nate Silver suggests that Paul Ryan being the VP gave Romney less than 1% of the popular vote and a 2% increased chance of winning Wisconsin.
 
2012-08-29 10:02:20 AM
Going from a 6 point gap to 1 point gap in a month qafter the lies about killing a woman, not paying any taxes and possibly committing a felony just shows that 0bama's strategy of lies ain't working.

To bad 0bama can't fall back on actually running on his record.
 
2012-08-29 10:04:08 AM

Bendal: xanadian: Um. The polls/charts in TFA say, "Yes, they might."

Depends; are the polls only calling people with landlines? (Leaves minorities and young voters out)
Or are they only calling mostly white voters? Single poll results can be skewed any way you want depending on what group you're using as your sample.


oh not this again.
pollsters have been using cell phones for the last 4 years at least.

Some polls also have been oversampling democrats by 9 points.
 
2012-08-29 10:04:47 AM

tenpoundsofcheese: Going from a 6 point gap to 1 point gap in a month qafter the lies about killing a woman, not paying any taxes and possibly committing a felony just shows that 0bama's strategy of lies ain't working.

To bad 0bama can't fall back on actually running on his record.


Maybe, maybe not. Romney won't either though, so that's kinda moot. Besides, nobody on either side should get antsy right at the convention time, they always get a boost.
 
2012-08-29 10:08:16 AM

karnal: GOP blocked him from closing GITMO? There was opposition to that one from both sides.


So, both sides are bad?

karnal: Plus it came down to the sheer logistics of how to shut the doors of Guantanamo and send all the inmates home.


If only we had some sort of secure facility, with guards and fences and lots and lots of locks. Maybe even several of them.

karnal: This is one case of the president's mouth writing a check his ass couldn't cash.


Yeah. It's a shame that he has to get the co-operation of Congress to do big things. It would be better if he were a King. Much easier.
 
2012-08-29 10:09:06 AM

karnal: GOP blocked him from closing GITMO? There was opposition to that one from both sides. Plus it came down to the sheer logistics of how to shut the doors of Guantanamo and send all the inmates home. This is one case of the president's mouth writing a check his ass couldn't cash.


It's those logistics that the GOP actively fought against.

Obama wanted to send them to some prison in Idaho (I think it was Idaho. Some state out west) and the GOP flipped out over bringing them into the United States because they were afraid there would be attacks trying to get them out.

But it's not like the Democrats fought particularly hard for closing it.
 
2012-08-29 10:09:40 AM

tenpoundsofcheese: Bendal: xanadian: Um. The polls/charts in TFA say, "Yes, they might."

Depends; are the polls only calling people with landlines? (Leaves minorities and young voters out)
Or are they only calling mostly white voters? Single poll results can be skewed any way you want depending on what group you're using as your sample.

oh not this again.
pollsters have been using cell phones for the last 4 years at least.

Some polls also have been oversampling democrats by 9 points.


What about Rasmussen?

The convention bump is bad news....For Obama.

www.rasmussenreports.com
 
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