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(Yahoo)   MSM squeals in delight: Romney and Obama in dead heat   ( news.yahoo.com) divider line
    More: Ironic, Mitt Romney, obama, rises, swing voters, exit polls  
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1192 clicks; posted to Politics » on 27 Aug 2012 at 11:36 AM (4 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



128 Comments     (+0 »)
 
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2012-08-27 09:08:34 AM  
Actually, I thought that was Treat Williams and Joe Piscopo.
 
2012-08-27 09:12:20 AM  
www.imglols.com
 
2012-08-27 10:12:11 AM  
ctrl-F "electoral"

not found.


conclusion: article is useless.
 
2012-08-27 10:24:35 AM  
Ask Al Gore how important the popular vote is.
 
2012-08-27 10:34:10 AM  

revrendjim: Ask Al Gore how important the popular vote is.


That's president al gore to you!
 
2012-08-27 10:42:53 AM  
FTFA: Registered voters by a substantial 58-32 percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll think Romney would do more to favor the wealthy than the middle class - the opposite of views on Obama's priority. Obama has a slight 7-point edge in better understanding the public's economic straits, and another wide lead, 61-27 percent, as seeming more friendly and likeable.

And yet they're polling, overall, in a dead heat. ARE PEOPLE REALLY THIS RETARDED!??
 
2012-08-27 10:43:48 AM  
Gary Johnson?
 
2012-08-27 10:48:55 AM  
Because terms like "dead heat" apparently don't have an actual definition.
 
2012-08-27 10:52:34 AM  

xanadian: And yet they're polling, overall, in a dead heat. ARE PEOPLE REALLY THIS RETARDED!??


I refer you to this quote from Men In Black:

A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it.
 
2012-08-27 11:02:50 AM  
images.wikia.com
oh... dead HEAT... sorry

/don't know what made me think of this
 
2012-08-27 11:05:28 AM  
I should have clarified that the pic came up after GIS for squealing in delight.
 
2012-08-27 11:13:39 AM  
Nate Silver brought up a good point last week. Most of these polls were done shortly after Romney announced Ryan. Candidates usually get a slight, temporary bounce when they announce a running mate. Romney will get another bounce after the convention later this week but that will fade, too. When the DNC Convention starts next week, Obama will get a bounce.

Right now, Nate's predicting Obama to win with a comfortable margin.
 
2012-08-27 11:30:12 AM  

brigid_fitch: Nate Silver brought up a good point last week. Most of these polls were done shortly after Romney announced Ryan. Candidates usually get a slight, temporary bounce when they announce a running mate. Romney will get another bounce after the convention later this week but that will fade, too. When the DNC Convention starts next week, Obama will get a bounce.

Right now, Nate's predicting Obama to win with a comfortable margin.


Romney didn't get a bounce with Ryan, and he's probably not going to get a convention bounce, because a large part- if not all of it- will be called due to hurricane.

Because God hates Republicans.
 
2012-08-27 11:38:40 AM  
 
2012-08-27 11:39:39 AM  
Don't fret too much, Demoncrats. There will be an Obama bump leading into the DNC.

But at the end, it's going to be a very close election.
 
2012-08-27 11:39:59 AM  
88% chance of rain is now a 50/50 chance. Got it.
 
2012-08-27 11:40:12 AM  

what_now: brigid_fitch: Nate Silver brought up a good point last week. Most of these polls were done shortly after Romney announced Ryan. Candidates usually get a slight, temporary bounce when they announce a running mate. Romney will get another bounce after the convention later this week but that will fade, too. When the DNC Convention starts next week, Obama will get a bounce.

Right now, Nate's predicting Obama to win with a comfortable margin.

Romney didn't get a bounce with Ryan, and he's probably not going to get a convention bounce, because a large part- if not all of it- will be called due to hurricane.

Because God hates Republicans.


I dunno about that; you can see the Ryan bump in Mr. Silver's projections. It's starting to fade, and didn't even get Romney back to where he was at in late July, but it's there.
 
2012-08-27 11:40:37 AM  
It's the end of August. There have been no conventions yet and no debates. Polls probably won't be very good indicators until after these events.
 
2012-08-27 11:41:08 AM  

what_now: brigid_fitch: Nate Silver brought up a good point last week. Most of these polls were done shortly after Romney announced Ryan. Candidates usually get a slight, temporary bounce when they announce a running mate. Romney will get another bounce after the convention later this week but that will fade, too. When the DNC Convention starts next week, Obama will get a bounce.

Right now, Nate's predicting Obama to win with a comfortable margin.

Romney didn't get a bounce with Ryan, and he's probably not going to get a convention bounce, because a large part- if not all of it- will be called due to hurricane.

Because God hates Republicans.


What made them think holding the convention in Florida during hurricane season was smart? Why not hold it in the middle of a corn field in Kansas, too?
 
2012-08-27 11:41:16 AM  

brigid_fitch: Nate Silver brought up a good point last week. Most of these polls were done shortly after Romney announced Ryan. Candidates usually get a slight, temporary bounce when they announce a running mate. Romney will get another bounce after the convention later this week but that will fade, too. When the DNC Convention starts next week, Obama will get a bounce.

Right now, Nate's predicting Obama to win with a comfortable margin.


To expound on this, Nate's latest blog post:

Little Momentum in Polls in Advance of Conventions 

A more appropriate headline would be, "MSM desperately tries to create a tight race despite a stubborn status quo that seems to have Barack Obama winning the election."
 
2012-08-27 11:41:16 AM  

what_now: brigid_fitch: Nate Silver brought up a good point last week. Most of these polls were done shortly after Romney announced Ryan. Candidates usually get a slight, temporary bounce when they announce a running mate. Romney will get another bounce after the convention later this week but that will fade, too. When the DNC Convention starts next week, Obama will get a bounce.

Right now, Nate's predicting Obama to win with a comfortable margin.

Romney didn't get a bounce with Ryan, and he's probably not going to get a convention bounce, because a large part- if not all of it- will be called due to hurricane.

Because God hates Republicans.


Be fair, he doesn't hate them. He hates what they stand for. He pities them.

Witness the parable of the rich man coming to Jesus and begging to be part of what he was doing...

Jesus told him to give up his wealth and worldly things and follow him. The man sadly went home to his wealth and worldly things.

If Jesus was alive today, he'd be seen as a crunch-head hippie and most likely would be involved in the Occupy movement and hated by the establishment who all identify as 'Christians'.
 
2012-08-27 11:42:34 AM  
The day can't come soon enough when the entirety of these media hacks will just be replaced with a link to FiveThirtyEight.
 
2012-08-27 11:42:49 AM  

Cletus C.: Don't fret too much, Demoncrats. There will be an Obama bump leading into the DNC.

But at the end, it's going to be a very close election.


You might be forgetting the debates. Poor poor Rob-me.
 
2012-08-27 11:43:10 AM  

Cletus C.: Don't fret too much, Demoncrats. There will be an Obama bump leading into the DNC.

But at the end, it's going to be a very close election.


You're so adorable - you actually think the popular vote matters. Reality begs to differ.
i279.photobucket.com
 
2012-08-27 11:44:04 AM  

Coco LaFemme: What made them think holding the convention in Florida during hurricane season was smart?


These don't factor into the Republican decision-making process.
 
2012-08-27 11:45:59 AM  
The RNC will give Romney a bit of bounce.  But what is more interesting is that despite the campaigns being so negative and both have scored (Obama's more than Romney's I think (PAC or not)), but the poll numbers really haven't moved.
 
I don't really know what that means, just that it is interesting that the polls have tightened a bit...not not moved in relation to the negative campaign ads that have scored pretty good. 
 
Current prediction...Obama by 5 in popular vote, and significantly more in electoral.  Of course if there is continued effort by Romney and the GOP to focus on the stagnant economy (not the gays, abortion, or unicorn mating rituals), or if there is a major surprise, that might change.  But right now that looks pretty realistic to me.
 
2012-08-27 11:46:05 AM  

xanadian: FTFA: Registered voters by a substantial 58-32 percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll think Romney would do more to favor the wealthy than the middle class - the opposite of views on Obama's priority. Obama has a slight 7-point edge in better understanding the public's economic straits, and another wide lead, 61-27 percent, as seeming more friendly and likeable.

And yet they're polling, overall, in a dead heat. ARE PEOPLE REALLY THIS RETARDED!??


Three words: Temporarily. Embarrassed. Millionaires.
 
2012-08-27 11:46:26 AM  
I get that the media is trying to make a real race out of this despite everything that Romney is, does and says. Just to milk that superpac teat. However, one of these days their efforts to legitimize a worst case scenerio candidate might actually get that jackass into office. He will destroy the economy, get us into unnecessary wars and piss all over the Constitution.

t3.gstatic.com
 
2012-08-27 11:47:08 AM  
McCain was up by 2 points at this time in 2008.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109834/gallup-daily-bounce-obama-post-bide n -tracking.aspx
 
2012-08-27 11:47:34 AM  

The Great EZE: The day can't come soon enough when the entirety of these media hacks will just be replaced with a link to FiveThirtyEight.


To be fair, FiveThirtyEight relies upon this polling in order to gather it's data. If this stuff disappeared, Silver (and Pollster, if you don't like the NYT association) would get much less accurate
 
2012-08-27 11:48:10 AM  

I_C_Weener: I don't really know what that means, just that it is interesting that the polls have tightened a bit...not not moved in relation to the negative campaign ads that have scored pretty good.


I think it means the number of people who can be swayed by anything short of legitimate baby-rape on the part of their candidate is at an all-time low.
 
2012-08-27 11:50:06 AM  

I_C_Weener: Of course if there is continued effort by Romney and the GOP to focus on the stagnant economy


It's not the focus on any campaign issue, it's the focus on voter disenfranchisement that will make all the difference.
 
2012-08-27 11:50:41 AM  

Lost Thought 00: The Great EZE: The day can't come soon enough when the entirety of these media hacks will just be replaced with a link to FiveThirtyEight.

To be fair, FiveThirtyEight relies upon this polling in order to gather it's data. If this stuff disappeared, Silver (and Pollster, if you don't like the NYT association) would get much less accurate


That's true. Rage at media hackery temporarily blinds me.

Maybe just a line at the end of every such article stating, "...but that's just our polling. Go over to FiveThirtyEight for more useful information."

Then maybe a youtube video describing what the electoral college is.
 
2012-08-27 11:50:59 AM  

incendi: I_C_Weener: I don't really know what that means, just that it is interesting that the polls have tightened a bit...not not moved in relation to the negative campaign ads that have scored pretty good.

I think it means the number of people who can be swayed by anything short of legitimate baby-rape on the part of their candidate is at an all-time low.


I think most people made up their minds about who they would vote for a while back, and there just isn't much any amount of campaign ads that can change their minds, only motivate the voters to get out and vote.
 
2012-08-27 11:51:07 AM  

Garm: I get that the media is trying to make a real race out of this despite everything that Romney is, does and says. Just to milk that superpac teat. However, one of these days their efforts to legitimize a worst case scenerio candidate might actually get that jackass into office. He will destroy the economy, get us into unnecessary wars and piss all over the Constitution.

[t3.gstatic.com image 225x225]


For a second, I thought you were talking about the super-sekrit, Kenyan, Muslim Usurper
 
2012-08-27 11:53:20 AM  

Cletus C.: Don't fret too much, Demoncrats. There will be an Obama bump leading into the DNC.

But at the end, it's going to be a very close election.


Rasmussen polling (The Queen of the Ball for the GOP) now has Obama up by 3 points overall and 4 points in swing states. Likely voters and outside the margin of error. Not a dead heat and Romney has peaked IMHO.
 
2012-08-27 11:54:21 AM  

I_C_Weener: The RNC will give Romney a bit of bounce.  But what is more interesting is that despite the campaigns being so negative and both have scored (Obama's more than Romney's I think (PAC or not)), but the poll numbers really haven't moved.
 
I don't really know what that means, just that it is interesting that the polls have tightened a bit...not not moved in relation to the negative campaign ads that have scored pretty good.


It may mean that the number of undecideds isn't very large at all. If that's the case, a small static lead is much more significant than it appears because it'll require a herculean effort to shift. That'll turn this election into another Bush vs. Kerry in which voters are more comfortable with the incumbent than with a poorly-differentiated unknown.
 
2012-08-27 11:55:46 AM  

Bill_Wick's_Friend: ctrl-F "electoral"

not found.


conclusion: article is useless.


THIS

Virginia. Ohio. Florida. Maybe one or two others.
 
2012-08-27 11:56:45 AM  

I_C_Weener: Current prediction...Obama by 5 in popular vote, and significantly more in electoral. Of course if there is continued effort by Romney and the GOP to focus on the stagnant economy (not the gays, abortion, or unicorn mating rituals), or if there is a major surprise, that might change. But right now that looks pretty realistic to me.


Maybe not if Florida and other states succeed in blocking the poor from voting. They have been working overtime on it and aren't backing down. Newest news Florida's governor threatening to fire the Keys district representative who is unwilling to change the hours of early voting to remove Sunday from early voting (65% of black vote in 2008 was on Sunday). In other districts this change has already been made.
Link
 
2012-08-27 11:57:30 AM  

mrshowrules: Rasmussen polling (The Queen of the Ball for the GOP) now has Obama up by 3 points overall and 4 points in swing states. Likely voters and outside the margin of error. Not a dead heat and Romney has peaked IMHO.


Yeah, Romney really doesn't have any bounce-worthy events left, while Obama has the DNC and will most likely get a debate bounce.
 
2012-08-27 11:59:35 AM  

MindStalker: I_C_Weener: Current prediction...Obama by 5 in popular vote, and significantly more in electoral. Of course if there is continued effort by Romney and the GOP to focus on the stagnant economy (not the gays, abortion, or unicorn mating rituals), or if there is a major surprise, that might change. But right now that looks pretty realistic to me.

Maybe not if Florida and other states succeed in blocking the poor from voting. They have been working overtime on it and aren't backing down. Newest news Florida's governor threatening to fire the Keys district representative who is unwilling to change the hours of early voting to remove Sunday from early voting (65% of black vote in 2008 was on Sunday). In other districts this change has already been made.
Link


This is the only thing that matters. The Republicans are using the poor excuse of "voter fraud" to essentially commit national electoral fraud.
 
2012-08-27 12:00:25 PM  
How many more democrats than republicans did they have to poll to get that result?
 
2012-08-27 12:01:29 PM  

Smeggy Smurf: How many more democrats than republicans did they have to poll to get that result?


Hey, everybody! Somebody doesn't understand how polling works! Let's all point and laugh!
 
2012-08-27 12:05:33 PM  

Duke Phillips' Singing Bears: MindStalker: I_C_Weener: Current prediction...Obama by 5 in popular vote, and significantly more in electoral. Of course if there is continued effort by Romney and the GOP to focus on the stagnant economy (not the gays, abortion, or unicorn mating rituals), or if there is a major surprise, that might change. But right now that looks pretty realistic to me.

Maybe not if Florida and other states succeed in blocking the poor from voting. They have been working overtime on it and aren't backing down. Newest news Florida's governor threatening to fire the Keys district representative who is unwilling to change the hours of early voting to remove Sunday from early voting (65% of black vote in 2008 was on Sunday). In other districts this change has already been made.
Link

This is the only thing that matters. The Republicans are using the poor excuse of "voter fraud" to essentially commit national electoral fraud.



I don't know anything about that, but I always get a little pissed on election day when I hear they extended the polling hours.  fark that.  If I had to plan ahead and managed to get there, everyone else should too.  Fixed state wide polling times that are consistent and do not vary by the mood of a judge, or what politico thinks of the voter turnout that day.
 
I like Indiana's 6am to 6pm.  Simple, straight forward and easy to remember.  Just wish they stopped moving my polling location every 6 months.
 
I also like Indiana's voter ID.  If you don't have a state ID, they will buy one for you.  If you can't be bothered to get one, then you really can't be trusted to vote to cancel out my vote.
 
Indiana did recently add early voting...  Not sure how I like that.  If you vote a month early, and the candidate is caught with a live boy or dead woman in their bed, you can't take the vote back.  But a day early...okay.
 
2012-08-27 12:07:45 PM  

Duke Phillips' Singing Bears: This is the only thing that matters. The Republicans are using the poor excuse of "voter fraud" to essentially commit national electoral fraud.


This is true, but an informative article on measuring the effects of voter identification laws concludes with:

One last thing to consider: although I do think these laws will have some detrimental effect on Democratic turnout, it is unlikely to be as large as some Democrats fear or as some news media reports imply - and they can also serve as a rallying point for the party bases. So although the direct effects of these laws are likely negative for Democrats, it wouldn't take that much in terms of increased base voter engagement - and increased voter conscientiousness about their registration status - to mitigate them.
 
2012-08-27 12:10:11 PM  

DarwiOdrade: Cletus C.: Don't fret too much, Demoncrats. There will be an Obama bump leading into the DNC.

But at the end, it's going to be a very close election.

You're so adorable - you actually think the popular vote matters. Reality begs to differ.
[i279.photobucket.com image 383x547]


On the very same website where you got those graphs Obama is also picked to win the popular vote by 2.5%. So I'm not sure what your implying.
 
2012-08-27 12:12:36 PM  
At this point in the '08 cycle, McCain/Palin was surging into the lead. It's called momentum, and it follows a fairly predictable pattern near convention time.

Also as others have pointed out, national polls mean absolutely nothing when elections are decided by electoral votes. Don't fall for the media hype.
 
2012-08-27 12:13:38 PM  

lemurs: Duke Phillips' Singing Bears: This is the only thing that matters. The Republicans are using the poor excuse of "voter fraud" to essentially commit national electoral fraud.

This is true, but an informative article on measuring the effects of voter identification laws concludes with:

One last thing to consider: although I do think these laws will have some detrimental effect on Democratic turnout, it is unlikely to be as large as some Democrats fear or as some news media reports imply - and they can also serve as a rallying point for the party bases. So although the direct effects of these laws are likely negative for Democrats, it wouldn't take that much in terms of increased base voter engagement - and increased voter conscientiousness about their registration status - to mitigate them.


I'm not sure that really makes it better. And the GOP should be very careful of "we only rolled back your civil rights to encourage you to become more engaged in the election process".

The whole voter ID thing stinks to high heaven of racism too cowardly to man up and wear a white hood.
 
2012-08-27 12:14:51 PM  

s1ugg0: DarwiOdrade: Cletus C.: Don't fret too much, Demoncrats. There will be an Obama bump leading into the DNC.

But at the end, it's going to be a very close election.

You're so adorable - you actually think the popular vote matters. Reality begs to differ.
[i279.photobucket.com image 383x547]

On the very same website where you got those graphs Obama is also picked to win the popular vote by 2.5%. So I'm not sure what your implying.


Not implying anything, just using a more realistic method for predicting the outcome of the election. The popular vote doesn't determine the outcome, and the electoral vote doesn't look "very close" at all.
 
2012-08-27 12:15:11 PM  
Romney and Obama in dead heat

And if we didn't have an electoral college, that would mean something.
 
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