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(ESPN)   In 2011, the Baltimore Orioles finished the season at 69-93, 28 games out of first. In 2012, the Orioles get their 69th win on August 25 and are 4 games out of first. That's change we can believe in, hon   (scores.espn.go.com) divider line 38
    More: Cool, Baltimore Orioles, Orioles, N McLouth, Bluejays, Dan Iassogna, quarry, C. B. Bucknor, third bases  
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447 clicks; posted to Sports » on 26 Aug 2012 at 2:25 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-08-25 11:01:52 PM  
Um. Am I supposed to blame Obama for 2011, then?
 
2012-08-25 11:05:55 PM  
I can't remember exactly, but I think I said something like the Orioles are more likely to be in 1st at season end than the Red Sox. At any rate, I'm going to pretend I said so and take credit for it. I know I said they were more likely to make the playoffs.
 
2012-08-25 11:46:27 PM  
As a suburban MD resident I really have no idea whether I'm supposed to root for the O's or Nationals. We go to more O's games because it's so easy to get to, but I do love the presidential bobble-heads that race down in Southeast.
 
2012-08-26 02:44:38 AM  
baseballprospectus isn't buying the Os hype and still has them at only a 10% chance of making the playoffs
 
2012-08-26 02:55:15 AM  
Baltimore has given up 46 more runs than they have scored. There is not a single other team in MLB with a negative run differential and a winning record. The wins will sadly start to dry up. I would love to see Baltimore start to shake up the AL East, but unless they start scoring more runs than they give up, I don't see this success carrying them to the postseason.
 
2012-08-26 03:10:11 AM  
The thing is though, that negative run differential has been true for almost the whole year, yet the wins haven't dried up yet. I don't think they'd do much in the postseason even if they made it, I still think they have a decent chance.
 
2012-08-26 03:10:26 AM  
If it werent for all these injuries, the Jays would be right in the hunt too.

/Bautista is out AGAIN with wrist soreness.
 
2012-08-26 03:19:14 AM  

BudTheSpud: If it werent for all these injuries, the Jays would be right in the hunt too.

/Bautista is out AGAIN with wrist soreness.


The same Jays that went 5 for their last 26?
 
2012-08-26 03:22:12 AM  

DaJesus: Baltimore has given up 46 more runs than they have scored. There is not a single other team in MLB with a negative run differential and a winning record. The wins will sadly start to dry up. I would love to see Baltimore start to shake up the AL East, but unless they start scoring more runs than they give up, I don't see this success carrying them to the postseason.


There is not a single statistical reason why the Orioles should still be in playoff contention. They're 11th in the league in hitting, 12th in OBP, and 10th in runs scored. 8th in ERA and 10th in WHIP. Dead last in fielding. But they keep winning anyway.

Among the myriad of splits that mlb.com offers is one called "late/close". They don't define what exactly constitutes "late/close", but I'm going on the assumption that it's something along the lines of 7th inning or later and a 3-run or less differential. In any regard, the Orioles lead the AL in ERA under that split, at 2.09. Hell, they lead the majors, and by a pretty good margin--Texas is second with a 2.41 ERA. They don't do quite that well at the bat, but they do better there than overall--a .250 average, good for 7th in the league. They also lead the league in "late/close" home runs, and are second to Oakland in runs scored. As far as the fielding goes, now that they've got Betemit & Andino out of the lineup it's worlds better; they said in the broadcast last night that they're actually tied for fewest errors in the league since the All Star break.

It's not exactly a return to Orioles Magic, but it's a vast improvement over what we've seen for the last 14 seasons. Playoffs or no, I said coming into the season that I'd be happy with 70 wins, ecstatic with 75...now it's looking like a winning record is actually a good possibility, so I'm feeling like I just found a winning lottery ticket in Kate Upton's hoo-ha. :)
 
2012-08-26 03:42:06 AM  
I'll expound (I've a homemade graph of the whole AL East season)

The Jays highwater mark was 5 over, which they hit May 4th (3rd place), May 19th (3rd again), and May 21st (still 3rd). They were above the Yankees in all 3 instances. After May 21st, they had a 5 game losing streak (thus falling back to .500). They got as high as 4 over on June 6th, following which they went 1-for-7, managed to claw back to 3 over on the 23rd and 25th, never saw anything higher than 2 over since (last on July 28th) and are currently 14 under.

Now, injuries happen. they happen to lots of teams. The Yankees lost 3 starting pitchers, the greatest closer of all time, the best defensive outfielder in the game and Centaur McPaycheck. They've managed roughly .500 ball since the ASG (one game over since the break actually) and would have a comfortable lead if not for the Rays turning on godmode and the Os seriously overachieving (a half game separated the Jays from the Rays and Os on July 28th. They're now, not even a full month later 13 behind the Os and 13.5 behind the Rays).
 
2012-08-26 03:51:09 AM  
It's strange because this team is probably less talented on paper than a lot of Orioles teams in recent years, but they're winning. Sadly, Adam Jones has fallen off pace after a nice start. Early MVP candidate, with no one else really in the picture once Hamilton went down, but now it's Trout's to lose
 
2012-08-26 03:59:17 AM  

The Bestest: the greatest closer of all time


Dennis Eckersley never pitched for the Yankees. :p
 
2012-08-26 04:11:29 AM  

DaJesus: I would love to see Baltimore start to shake up the AL East, but unless they start scoring more runs than they give up, I don't see this success carrying them to the postseason.


Well they've done it 69 times this season.
 
2012-08-26 05:00:50 AM  
Only the Orioles would celebrate being 4 games out of 1st.....and maybe the pirates.
 
2012-08-26 07:02:45 AM  

DaJesus: Baltimore has given up 46 more runs than they have scored. There is not a single other team in MLB with a negative run differential and a winning record. The wins will sadly start to dry up. I would love to see Baltimore start to shake up the AL East, but unless they start scoring more runs than they give up, I don't see this success carrying them to the postseason.


It's an interesting statistic you quote, and certainly baseball is full of them. Another interesting one I read; The Orioles, when playing games against other major league opponents, specifically this year, have finished with more runs at the end of the game than their opponents a whopping 69 times. Now, if you discount the games where this doesn't take place, the percentage of games the Oriole's have won, when leading at the end, is 100%! With a stat like that, I don't see how they can't make the playoffs and inevitably win the World Series!

/Baseball statistics are bunk
//Baltimorean who still isn't on the bandwagon, hon
 
2012-08-26 08:25:42 AM  

tsferg: Only the Orioles would celebrate being 4 games out of 1st.....and maybe the pirates.


Hey, I resemble that remark.
 
2012-08-26 09:43:03 AM  
I've never set foot in Baltimore, but have loved the O's since Earl Weaver. I do want to visit Dundalk though, as I am from Dundalk Ireland.
 
2012-08-26 09:48:13 AM  

Crewmannumber6: I've never set foot in Baltimore, but have loved the O's since Earl Weaver. I do want to visit Dundalk though, as I am from Dundalk Ireland.


No you don't.
 
2012-08-26 10:01:09 AM  

PoochUMD: Crewmannumber6: I've never set foot in Baltimore, but have loved the O's since Earl Weaver. I do want to visit Dundalk though, as I am from Dundalk Ireland.

No you don't.


Seriously, you don't.
 
2012-08-26 10:03:43 AM  

tsferg: Only the Orioles would celebrate being 4 games out of 1st.....and maybe the pirates.


Heck, I'm celebrating just because we're ahead of the Red Sox. When the O's won the last regular season game and kept the Sox out of the playoffs last year, I yelled like they just closed out game 7 of the WS.
 
2012-08-26 10:07:57 AM  
The most amazing thing about this Orioles season is that they've managed such success (thus far) while still being owned by Peter Angelos.
 
2012-08-26 10:11:04 AM  

Crewmannumber6: I've never set foot in Baltimore, but have loved the O's since Earl Weaver. I do want to visit Dundalk though, as I am from Dundalk Ireland.


We had a local comedian from Dundalk, Ireland who lived near Dundalk, Maryland. I've lived within one zip code of Dundalk for 29 years. Poor, blue collar union town. Nothing special about it except the waste treatment plant, which Dundalk and Essex both deny ownership of (there's a flag football game every year between the two zip codes, called the Toilet Bowl, to decide who claims ownership for the year).

Here's the view from Dundalk:

mw2.google.com (hotlinked) 

I just moved to Boston (two weeks ago), walking distance to Fenway Park, but I'm not really into baseball. I used to halfheartedly hope the Orioles did well, so I guess I'll continue doing that rather than transfer that mild feeling over to the Red Sox.
 
2012-08-26 11:18:00 AM  
imageshack.us
 
2012-08-26 11:19:29 AM  

DaJesus: Baltimore has given up 46 more runs than they have scored. There is not a single other team in MLB with a negative run differential and a winning record. The wins will sadly start to dry up. I would love to see Baltimore start to shake up the AL East, but unless they start scoring more runs than they give up, I don't see this success carrying them to the postseason.


Blah, Blah, Blah.

I have heard "the wins are going to dry up" since May.

They have a negative run differential against 2 teams: Angels and Texas.

They have a -63 RD against the Angels and Texas, +9 against the rest of the league.

St. Louis' RD is +120, yet they have the same record as Baltimore, so should we expect them to win 30 out of their last 38 based on RD?

BTW, RD means less and less as the season goes on.

There probably are a bunch of other theories for this finding (i.e. superior performance in one-run games based on bullpen strength, which isn't captured by the calculation for expected winning percentage, etc.), but the bottom line is that simply relying on expected winning percentage to discount a team's chances for sustaining their performance through September isn't a great idea. Especially since their actual winning percentage generally predicts their September record better. The better way to approach it would be to look at whether the composition of the team has changed (for better or worse) and whether there are trends their more recent performance that foretell a change in either direction (e.g. injuries, pitcher fatigue). 

Go O's!!
 
2012-08-26 11:45:48 AM  

Crewmannumber6: I do want to visit Dundalk though, as I am from Dundalk Ireland.


Dundalk is a punch line in Maryland.
 
2012-08-26 12:42:43 PM  

Broktun: They have a -63 RD against the Angels and Texas, +9 against the rest of the league.


Which is why I am rooting for the rest of the league to make it to the playoffs if the Orioles can make it there.

/longtime fan
//enjoying the ride
///Buck for AL MOY
 
2012-08-26 12:53:10 PM  
Who gives a shiat??

IF YOU'RE NOT FIRST, YOU'RE LAST. Lotta libtards in Baltimore.
 
2012-08-26 01:50:36 PM  

Harv72b: The Bestest: the greatest closer of all time

Dennis Eckersley never pitched for the Yankees. :p


No, but I loved him pitching against the Reds in the 90 series.

Showalter is a good manager, too bad he teamed up with John Hart when he was with Texas.
 
2012-08-26 02:40:17 PM  

The Bestest: baseballprospectus isn't buying the Os hype and still has them at only a 10% chance of making the playoffs


And there's just no arguing with Baseball Prospectus's track record! Every article a gem, every statistic is a flawless execution and advancement in mathematics, every prediction can be put down in permanent ink.
 
2012-08-26 02:43:30 PM  

Crewmannumber6: I've never set foot in Baltimore, but have loved the O's since Earl Weaver. I do want to visit Dundalk though, as I am from Dundalk Ireland.


The only time you should visit Dundalk is during the Heritage Fair. All you need to know about Dundalk is they have an annual football game vs. Essex called the Toilet Bowl in which they play for "ownership" of the local sanitation facility.
 
2012-08-26 05:35:39 PM  

degenerate-afro: The only time you should visit Dundalk is during the Heritage Fair. All you need to know about Dundalk is they have an annual football game vs. Essex called the Toilet Bowl in which they play for "ownership" of the local sanitation facility.


I already said that...
 
2012-08-26 06:32:22 PM  

Harv72b: There is not a single statistical reason why the Orioles should still be in playoff contention.


See, I do find statements like this funny. I do see that you are an O's fan, so I'll cut you some slack, but at the same time, this team is one of the best in MLB in 1-run games, extra inning games, and games which they lead after 7 innings. There are a million statistics in baseball, so it is usually pretty easy to find those that either support or are against a team's position. What matters is that this team has played well this season, and if they continue to do so, a playoff berth is a very real possibility.

/Go O's!
 
2012-08-26 07:10:29 PM  

06Wahoo: Harv72b: There is not a single statistical reason why the Orioles should still be in playoff contention.

See, I do find statements like this funny. I do see that you are an O's fan, so I'll cut you some slack, but at the same time, this team is one of the best in MLB in 1-run games, extra inning games, and games which they lead after 7 innings. There are a million statistics in baseball, so it is usually pretty easy to find those that either support or are against a team's position. What matters is that this team has played well this season, and if they continue to do so, a playoff berth is a very real possibility.

/Go O's!


Being good late in games means you have a good bullpen. Which the O's do.

Being good early in games is just as important.
 
2012-08-26 08:07:12 PM  
I'm just happy they're relevant in August and overjoyed they are currently in a play off spot.
 
2012-08-26 08:54:55 PM  

mc_madness: Who gives a shiat??

IF YOU'RE NOT FIRST, YOU'RE LAST. Lotta libtards in Baltimore.


No one from Boston is allowed to complain about "libtards" from anywhere else.

Is this because you are still upset over the way last season ended? It's okay, you can tell us.
 
2012-08-27 02:58:13 AM  

jack21221: degenerate-afro: The only time you should visit Dundalk is during the Heritage Fair. All you need to know about Dundalk is they have an annual football game vs. Essex called the Toilet Bowl in which they play for "ownership" of the local sanitation facility.

I already said that...


It needs to be drilled in repeatedly that no one should visit Dundalk (or Essex) without family or friends already being there.
 
2012-08-27 03:14:03 PM  

Harv72b: Crewmannumber6: I do want to visit Dundalk though, as I am from Dundalk Ireland.

Dundalk is a punch line in Maryland.


Seriously, everyone in Maryland looks down on Dundalk (including Essex). And Dundalk looks down on Essex.

It seems like an okay place when you drive through it the first time. Then it gets this creepy "Deliverance" feel that never goes away. If you ever get out of your car (god help you), you'll immediately wish to be somewhere else. Anywhere else. Mogadishu, for instance.
 
2012-08-27 04:11:00 PM  

Johnstarr: Harv72b: Crewmannumber6: I do want to visit Dundalk though, as I am from Dundalk Ireland.

Dundalk is a punch line in Maryland.

Seriously, everyone in Maryland looks down on Dundalk (including Essex). And Dundalk looks down on Essex.

It seems like an okay place when you drive through it the first time. Then it gets this creepy "Deliverance" feel that never goes away. If you ever get out of your car (god help you), you'll immediately wish to be somewhere else. Anywhere else. Mogadishu, for instance.


Especially when you are downwind.
 
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