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(The Raw Story)   Election model with 100% success rate for past 30 years predicts Romney victory   (rawstory.com) divider line 279
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7081 clicks; posted to Politics » on 23 Aug 2012 at 12:25 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-08-22 10:41:46 PM
I've got another one: anytime an incumbent is facing reelection the white male always wins, 100% of the time.

See ya Blackarack Minoero Darkbama.
 
2012-08-22 11:02:34 PM
I don't believe in magic. I know Nate Silver has a very VERY good model that is far more detailed than this crap.
 
2012-08-22 11:04:43 PM
I guess we should just give up. Romney is too powerful for us. He can't possibly lose.

Nothing is statisticly 100%. Something is only true until it is no longer true.
 
2012-08-22 11:05:52 PM
Wow, 30 years. That's like the whole time this country has been around.
 
2012-08-22 11:06:07 PM
If this model fails, will we have a follow up article once we find the model which has been 100% accurate for the last 30 years??

I bet if we look harder, we can find a model which has predicted the winner for the last 50 years.
 
2012-08-22 11:11:45 PM

Makh: Wow, 30 years. That's like the whole time this country has been around.


A random model would predict 8 elections correctly about 1 in 256 times. Not impressed.
 
2012-08-22 11:13:20 PM

namatad: If this model fails, will we have a follow up article once we find the model which has been 100% accurate for the last 30 years??

I bet if we look harder, we can find a model which has predicted the winner for the last 50 years.


The 30 year model is so impressive, it even predicted the Gore/Bush SCOTUS decision. That's a farking good model.
 
2012-08-22 11:16:51 PM
The model only goes back 30 years? What is this, climate science?
 
2012-08-22 11:21:10 PM

namatad: I bet if we look harder, we can find a model which has predicted the winner for the last 50 years.


Here's your model. Republicans have never lost an election. It's either stolen or the people are misguided. 100% accurate.
 
2012-08-22 11:21:54 PM

mrshowrules: Makh: Wow, 30 years. That's like the whole time this country has been around.

A random model would predict 8 elections correctly about 1 in 256 times. Not impressed.


I don't think anyone is arguing it's no better than a random model so that statistic isn't really relevant.
 
2012-08-22 11:23:37 PM
University of Colorado political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry need better data. You know right upside the head.
 
2012-08-22 11:27:30 PM
Was there any reference in that article that backs up the 30 year track record, or are we to take their word for it?

Also didnt see their actual model. I suppose it's based on, you know, stuff.
 
2012-08-22 11:30:35 PM

namatad: If this model fails, will we have a follow up article once we find the model which has been 100% accurate for the last 30 years??

I bet if we look harder, we can find a model which has predicted the winner for the last 50 years.


Here's a thought, how about find a model that works say 50 times out of the history of the US...

/and good luck with that...
 
2012-08-22 11:36:46 PM
Every four years I take a big dump on the morning of the Democratic National Convention. If it's a floater, the Dems win, if it's a sinker, the GOP takes it. I'm 100% since '84

I'll keep y'all posted.
 
2012-08-22 11:42:56 PM

Lionel Mandrake: Every four years I take a big dump on the morning of the Democratic National Convention. If it's a floater, the Dems win, if it's a sinker, the GOP takes it. I'm 100% since '84

I'll keep y'all posted.


Pretty close to too much information... but thanks for sharing?
 
2012-08-22 11:47:43 PM
The election model, created by University of Colorado political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry, predicts that if the election were held today President Barack Obama would win only 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. Romney would win 320 electoral votes.

I'll eat my shoe if Romney wins 320 electoral votes based on this models inputs (ie nothing insane happens between now and the election which this model cant predict for.
 
2012-08-23 12:05:06 AM

DamnYankees: The election model, created by University of Colorado political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry, predicts that if the election were held today President Barack Obama would win only 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. Romney would win 320 electoral votes.

I'll eat my shoe if Romney wins 320 electoral votes based on this models inputs (ie nothing insane happens between now and the election which this model cant predict for.


www.nndb.com

blog.camera.org

Working on it.
 
2012-08-23 12:06:26 AM

DamnYankees: I'll eat my shoe if Romney wins 320 electoral votes based on this models inputs (ie nothing insane happens between now and the election which this model cant predict for.


So whether or now we force you to physically eat your shoe is going to come down to a long drawn-out thread debate over the meaning of the word "insane"
 
2012-08-23 12:09:03 AM

Triumph: DamnYankees: I'll eat my shoe if Romney wins 320 electoral votes based on this models inputs (ie nothing insane happens between now and the election which this model cant predict for.

So whether or now we force you to physically eat your shoe is going to come down to a long drawn-out thread debate over the meaning of the word "insane"


I wouldn't have it any other way.
 
2012-08-23 12:28:33 AM
So, seven elections then? Wow.

Did they have insider knowledge to the 2000 Florida shenanigans?
 
2012-08-23 12:28:50 AM

DamnYankees: if the election were held today


If the election were held today I think very few people would show up to vote.
 
2012-08-23 12:30:21 AM
If Nate Silver says something like this THEN i'll worry.
 
2012-08-23 12:30:56 AM
The Keys to the White House creator has already predicted an Obama victory, and their record is also perfect over the last number of elections. Something is going to give.
 
2012-08-23 12:31:43 AM
Was the model Miss South Carolina?
 
2012-08-23 12:33:02 AM
Economists: America's economy has been steadily improving and will continue to do so.

Candidate Romney: "I can turn this economy around."
 
2012-08-23 12:33:32 AM
Worst fears come true...

sfist.com
 
2012-08-23 12:34:31 AM
"Sick" tag on vacation?
 
2012-08-23 12:34:40 AM
I predicted the last 9 elections correctly based on the weather.

Do I get a cookie? Or at least a fish?>
 
2012-08-23 12:34:43 AM
blessthe40oz.com
 
2012-08-23 12:34:50 AM

Tyrano Soros: Was the model Miss South Carolina?


i47.tinypic.com
 
2012-08-23 12:35:06 AM
Trickle-down economics worked for 30 years.
 
2012-08-23 12:36:05 AM

Tyrano Soros: Was the model Miss South Carolina?


No, but such like as
 
2012-08-23 12:36:41 AM
the last 8 elections no one had the bright idea to run on a voucherize medicare platform however.
 
2012-08-23 12:37:47 AM
This model is based solely upon economic indicators. I don't think it's going to be that simple this time.
 
2012-08-23 12:38:43 AM
Based on variables of relative employment across the 50 states and rising or falling real income across the 50 states we're able to go back and analyze how the states have come out over the last 8 election cycles," Bickers said. "In this election cycle what that model shows is that the Obama-Biden ticket is likely to lose the election."

Bullsh*t.
 
2012-08-23 12:38:44 AM
Nate Silver is trashing it mercilessly on Twitter right now.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight
 
2012-08-23 12:39:52 AM
It will be interesting on fark politics tab the day after the election.

/I predict massive amount of "butt hurt" regardless of who wins.
//I predict that if romney wins, the usual liberal trolls will be silent for days afterword.
///same for my side.
 
2012-08-23 12:41:12 AM

PlasticMoby: If Nate Silver says something like this THEN i'll worry.


Effin a.

/miss 538 proper
//nytimes, eh.
 
2012-08-23 12:43:58 AM

skipjack: It will be interesting on fark politics tab the day after the election.

/I predict massive amount of "butt hurt" regardless of who wins.
//I predict that if romney wins, the usual liberal trolls will be silent for days afterword.
///same for my side.


You must be new around here. Nothing shuts-up the trolls.
 
2012-08-23 12:44:25 AM

Triumph: The model only goes back 30 years? What is this, climate science?


What a model that goes back 30 years might look like.

www.esquire.com
 
2012-08-23 12:45:08 AM

DeltaPunch: I've got another one: anytime an incumbent is facing reelection the white male always wins, 100% of the time.

See ya Blackarack Minoero Darkbama.


I see no fault in your logic.
 
2012-08-23 12:45:44 AM

mrshowrules: namatad: If this model fails, will we have a follow up article once we find the model which has been 100% accurate for the last 30 years??

I bet if we look harder, we can find a model which has predicted the winner for the last 50 years.

The 30 year model is so impressive, it even predicted the Gore/Bush SCOTUS decision. That's a farking good model.


[quzzicaldog.jpg] The phrase "gore" or "2000" are not in the article. You funnin'? 'Cos I fell for what yer sellin'.
 
2012-08-23 12:45:53 AM

DamnYankees: The election model, created by University of Colorado political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry, predicts that if the election were held today President Barack Obama would win only 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. Romney would win 320 electoral votes.

I'll eat my shoe if Romney wins 320 electoral votes based on this models inputs (ie nothing insane happens between now and the election which this model cant predict for.


320? That's more than Dubya got in either election! Romney will have to flip at least 2 big states from the 2004 map to get to 320.
 
2012-08-23 12:45:56 AM

jcatcher: Nate Silver is trashing it mercilessly on Twitter right now.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight



lol, yes:

Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight
Also, it's false advertising to claim CU model has predicted the last 8 elections right. It's a new model. Hasn't predicted anything yet.
 
2012-08-23 12:46:03 AM
My model is 99.98% accurate over the duration of the entirety of the United States. The white guy wins. Sorry Obama fans.
 
2012-08-23 12:46:17 AM
The 5.6% number referenced makes me think this model is about as useful as a mongoloid scribing a letter with a crayon and someone interpreting it as an electoral prediction.
 
2012-08-23 12:47:06 AM

Krieghund: Triumph: The model only goes back 30 years? What is this, climate science?

What a model that goes back 30 years might look like.

[www.esquire.com image 300x400]


I would like to get between her and her Calvin's...back then.
 
2012-08-23 12:47:06 AM
This model predicts Obama loses Minnesota. That will never happen.
 
2012-08-23 12:47:31 AM

Analgesic: My model is 99.98% accurate over the duration of the entirety of the United States. The white guy wins. Sorry Obama fans.


Obama is half white...
 
2012-08-23 12:47:43 AM
This would be bad news for Obama if Republicans actually believed in predictive statistical models.
 
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