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(The New York Times)   VP selection typically causes a temporary four-point bounce in the polls for a candidate. Unless your selection is Paul Ryan   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 192
    More: Amusing, vice presidents  
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18544 clicks; posted to Main » on 16 Aug 2012 at 4:37 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-08-16 11:38:25 AM
Yeah, if you include the polls where Taxbongo managed to gain ground, of course it's not going to seem like a great pick.
 
2012-08-16 11:54:28 AM
Wow, not even a Dead Cat Bounce for Ryan?

i293.photobucket.com
 
2012-08-16 01:20:55 PM
I'm seeing a lot of "Biden is teh dumb" derp in the right wing blogosphere lately, since the Ryan announcement especially, which makes me think that they're trying to prepare people for the VP debate, and assure them that Ryan will mop the floor with him.

Sorry, right wing. It's not going to work that way. Though I suppose that if Biden makes some small gaffe, they can fall back on the "OMG GAFFE MACHINE" trope to try to distract people from the asswhipping he gives Ryan otherwise.
 
2012-08-16 01:38:19 PM

Mike_LowELL: Yeah, if you include the polls where Taxbongo managed to gain ground, of course it's not going to seem like a great pick.


Nate Silver is a known sabermetrician and a practitioner of the dark art of "fantasy" sports, where older men hold auctions to buy young men who are then put on a rotisserie and forced to perform a series of physical tasks for "points."

The man is not to be trusted.
 
2012-08-16 01:52:56 PM

sigdiamond2000: where older men hold auctions to buy young men who are then put on a rotisserie and forced to perform a series of physical tasks for "points."


While I agree that Nate Silver is a threat to freedom and democracy, I do not understand your point of contention. Eighty percent of the workers in my Vietnamese factory were purchased at auction, and if they do not "score 200 points" in a day, they are thrown out, with the rest of the garbage. Are you saying that job creators are not entitled to use slaves? But alas, this is a topic for another day. We should keep this thread on-topic, lest the trolls and satirists take over it from the very Weeners.
 
2012-08-16 02:12:03 PM

Mike_LowELL: Eighty percent of the workers in my Vietnamese factory were purchased at auction, and if they do not "score 200 points" in a day, they are thrown out, with the rest of the garbage. Are you saying that job creators are not entitled to use slaves?


Of course not. I myself just recently came into a sum of Croatian bondservants that I intend to crate and ship to my various sub-continent textile concerns. But you're right, we should probably table this discussion and take it offline.
 
2012-08-16 02:13:38 PM

Mike_LowELL: While I agree that Nate Silver is a threat to freedom and democracy


It isn't so much Nate Silver who is the threat as it is the subversive data he insists on reporting.

Get rid of Silver and the numbers are still there; just waiting for another dupe to come along and spread their venom among an innocent and unsuspecting public.

I trust you can see where I am going with this.
 
2012-08-16 02:18:20 PM
We still don't know. We won't know until we get more polling from Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. Alex Castellanos's firm released polls for all three states, but I want new polls from more than just that shill before I start getting the slightest bit panicky.
 
2012-08-16 02:18:33 PM

gilgigamesh: I trust you can see where I am going with this.


I do, but allow me to caution you thus: Recent struggles aside, resist the urge to trade Starlin Castro, particularly in keeper leagues. He's a legitimate 5-category producer with no where to go but up.
 
2012-08-16 02:57:11 PM

Mike_LowELL: sigdiamond2000: where older men hold auctions to buy young men who are then put on a rotisserie and forced to perform a series of physical tasks for "points."

While I agree that Nate Silver is a threat to freedom and democracy, I do not understand your point of contention. Eighty percent of the workers in my Vietnamese factory were purchased at auction, and if they do not "score 200 points" in a day, they are thrown out, with the rest of the garbage. Are you saying that job creators are not entitled to use slaves? But alas, this is a topic for another day. We should keep this thread on-topic, lest the trolls and satirists take over it from the very Weeners.


+1, glad to see you're back Mike
 
2012-08-16 03:19:05 PM
Might be that the smaller bounce was from hardcore conservatives who had still been bitter about Romney winning, now energized by Ryan; not so much excitement about Ryan from moderates/independents/your mom.
 
2012-08-16 03:46:45 PM

jake_lex: I'm seeing a lot of "Biden is teh dumb" derp in the right wing blogosphere lately, since the Ryan announcement especially, which makes me think that they're trying to prepare people for the VP debate, and assure them that Ryan will mop the floor with him.

Sorry, right wing. It's not going to work that way. Though I suppose that if Biden makes some small gaffe, they can fall back on the "OMG GAFFE MACHINE" trope to try to distract people from the asswhipping he gives Ryan otherwise.


I remember when they said that McCain was going to destroy Obama in the debates. He fell flat on his face on the first one and they they said he was going to destroy him in the "town hall" format. Then McCain was wondering around the stage in confusion like he was looking for his nurse or something.
 
2012-08-16 04:16:52 PM
That is because the Lamestream media has already smeared Ryan as wanting to end Medicare and have vouchers instead.
 
2012-08-16 04:26:15 PM

mrshowrules: jake_lex: I'm seeing a lot of "Biden is teh dumb" derp in the right wing blogosphere lately, since the Ryan announcement especially, which makes me think that they're trying to prepare people for the VP debate, and assure them that Ryan will mop the floor with him.

Sorry, right wing. It's not going to work that way. Though I suppose that if Biden makes some small gaffe, they can fall back on the "OMG GAFFE MACHINE" trope to try to distract people from the asswhipping he gives Ryan otherwise.

I remember when they said that McCain was going to destroy Obama in the debates. He fell flat on his face on the first one and they they said he was going to destroy him in the "town hall" format. Then McCain was wondering around the stage in confusion like he was looking for his nurse or something.


Two things:

1) If they build up the idea that Ryan is going to crush Biden, it will be much easier for them to convince people that he won the debate, no matter what happens during the actual debate. People do not handle shocks very well, and if new facts are introduced that contradict their beliefs, they tend to double down on their beliefs.

2) You can't rely on Romney or Ryan being senile this time. You can definitely rely on them saying some things that make them seem completely unlikeable and out of touch, but you'll have to goad them into it. Probably by talking about the Ryan budget.
 
2012-08-16 04:41:41 PM
mrshowrules: "they said he was going to destroy him in the "town hall" format."

Joe the Plumber was enough for Fox to spin it as a win. Surely Romney and Ryan can manage an equivalent 15 seconds of non-disaster that can be spun into a strong showing for the faithful.
 
2012-08-16 04:41:53 PM
Romney gained one point - and it's at the top of Ryan's head.
 
2012-08-16 04:43:11 PM

vernonFL: That is because the Lamestream media has already smeared Ryan as wanting to end Medicare and have vouchers instead.


Smeared with honest reporting of his own beliefs. Does the media have no shame?
 
2012-08-16 04:43:39 PM
zipmeme.com
 
2012-08-16 04:44:01 PM
When you select a relatively unknown you don't expect an immediate bounce.

Once the American public gets a chance to know this guy you'll see enthusiasm build. For Romney/Ryan, I mean.
 
2012-08-16 04:44:05 PM

sigdiamond2000: Nate Silver is a known sabermetrician and a practitioner of the dark art of "fantasy" sports, where older men hold auctions to buy young men who are then put on a rotisserie and forced to perform a series of physical tasks for "points."


My god, that is the most horrifying thing I've ever heard.
 
2012-08-16 04:45:53 PM

Mike_LowELL: sigdiamond2000: where older men hold auctions to buy young men who are then put on a rotisserie and forced to perform a series of physical tasks for "points."

While I agree that Nate Silver is a threat to freedom and democracy, I do not understand your point of contention. Eighty percent of the workers in my Vietnamese factory were purchased at auction, and if they do not "score 200 points" in a day, they are thrown out, with the rest of the garbage. Are you saying that job creators are not entitled to use slaves? But alas, this is a topic for another day. We should keep this thread on-topic, lest the trolls and satirists take over it from the very Weeners.


I heart you; I really, really do.
 
2012-08-16 04:45:57 PM

tallguywithglasseson: Might be that the smaller bounce was from hardcore conservatives who had still been bitter about Romney winning, now energized by Ryan; not so much excitement about Ryan from moderates/independents/your mom .


AKA, the people he's going to need to vote for him to win.

Nice thinking ahead there Lou-Mit.
 
2012-08-16 04:46:01 PM
FTA:
" By definition, we don't really know anything about those long-term effects yet. Perhaps you could make an inference and put forth a theory that a below-average initial bounce is a leading indicator that Mr. Ryan will eventually prove to be a damaging choice. But that inference would need to be made with a lot of modesty, since the correlation between how a vice presidential nominee is initially perceived and what voters eventually come to think of him has only been moderate in past elections."

Just wait until WannabeGalt opens his mouth
 
2012-08-16 04:46:09 PM
It's a good thing that whole Trump thing didn't gain traction. With an unimpressive effect like this, the Donald would have turned to his brand new running mate saying "you're fired" while telling one of his aide to get that Bachmann chick on the horn.
 
2012-08-16 04:46:27 PM

vernonFL: That is because the Lamestream media has already smeared Ryan as wanting to end Medicare and have vouchers instead.


republicanbutthurt.jpg
 
2012-08-16 04:47:01 PM

quatchi: Wow, not even a Dead Cat Bounce for Ryan?

[i293.photobucket.com image 264x263]


what's truly funny is that anyone believes polling anymore.
 
2012-08-16 04:47:12 PM
Stable race remains stable.

If Romney's numbers had actually dropped, that'd be a bigger sign that his VP choice was a dud. But numbers that don't move point to a race without a lot of undecideds - and those that are don't care about the VP.
 
2012-08-16 04:47:19 PM
Dial me in, here, folks. I see "Weeners" getting inserted in an awkward fashion, often not quite where it would naturally fit, nor in keeping with the rest of the thrust of the statement.

Is this some new auto-substitute like The N Word? If so, what is the word it is replacing? Of course that would have to be encoded somehow, or perhaps hinted at, or done as charades, since the word itself would merely be replaced as "Weeners."
 
2012-08-16 04:48:29 PM
Wondering which right wing outlet will be the first to say: "there's always 2016."
 
2012-08-16 04:48:32 PM

Cletus C.: When you select a relatively unknown you don't expect an immediate bounce.


Except Sarah Palin gave McCain a 2-4 percent bounce when she was first announced. So, there goes your argument.

Once the American public gets a chance to know this guy you'll see enthusiasm build. For Romney/Ryan, I mean.

You'll see enthusiasm build alright...to not let those two get even a sniff of a win.
 
2012-08-16 04:49:30 PM
Doesn't matter anyway people, we will all be dead by the end of this year anyway remember?
 
2012-08-16 04:51:04 PM
And the only poll with a decent sample size, Gallup, has Romney at plus 2 - even exceeding Rasmussen.

Keep grasping at straws, Libs.
 
2012-08-16 04:51:16 PM

AngryJailhouseFistfark: Dial me in, here, folks. I see "Weeners" getting inserted in an awkward fashion, often not quite where it would naturally fit, nor in keeping with the rest of the thrust of the statement.

Is this some new auto-substitute like The N Word? If so, what is the word it is replacing? Of course that would have to be encoded somehow, or perhaps hinted at, or done as charades, since the word itself would merely be replaced as "Weeners."


I'm pretty sure it's covered in the FArQ, but basically it's the opposite of "boobies."
 
2012-08-16 04:52:24 PM
Actually it was quite a strong bounce if you count the "net gain" by adding in that it kept Romney's polling numbers from dropping another 4 points.
 
2012-08-16 04:52:32 PM

Cletus C.: When you select a relatively unknown you don't expect an immediate bounce.

Once the American public gets a chance to know this guy you'll see enthusiasm build. For Romney/Ryan, I mean.


It's not like this is the first time he's been on a national stage where people were exposed to his ideas. He does not have the same anonymity as Palin did, people already know he's the new generation of Randian conservatives. At least Palin had a couple days to begin showing she was an idiot, Ryan has already put plenty of information out for that determination to be made.
 
2012-08-16 04:52:37 PM

AngryJailhouseFistfark: Dial me in, here, folks. I see "Weeners" getting inserted in an awkward fashion, often not quite where it would naturally fit, nor in keeping with the rest of the thrust of the statement.

Is this some new auto-substitute like The N Word? If so, what is the word it is replacing? Of course that would have to be encoded somehow, or perhaps hinted at, or done as charades, since the word itself would merely be replaced as "Weeners."


Pretty simple but when you type "Weeners" it comes out "Weeners" instead.


Duh!
 
2012-08-16 04:53:10 PM

AngryJailhouseFistfark: Dial me in, here, folks. I see "Weeners" getting inserted in an awkward fashion, often not quite where it would naturally fit, nor in keeping with the rest of the thrust of the statement.


Fark is not your personal erotica site.
 
2012-08-16 04:54:03 PM

InvertedB: Cletus C.: When you select a relatively unknown you don't expect an immediate bounce.

Once the American public gets a chance to know this guy you'll see enthusiasm build. For Romney/Ryan, I mean.

It's not like this is the first time he's been on a national stage where people were exposed to his ideas. He does not have the same anonymity as Palin did, people already know he's the new generation of Randian conservatives. At least Palin had a couple days to begin showing she was an idiot, Ryan has already put plenty of information out for that determination to be made.


This. The initial reaction to Palin was "who"? The initial reation to Ryan was "THAT FARKING GUY? Bwahahahaha!"
 
2012-08-16 04:54:31 PM
What was missed by the libtard media was 20 million tea party voter deciding to not sit this election out as they did in 2008. Sorry obummer, your gone.
 
2012-08-16 04:55:36 PM
FishyFred: mrshowrules: jake_lex: I'm seeing a lot of "Biden is teh dumb" derp in the right wing blogosphere lately, since the Ryan announcement especially, which makes me think that they're trying to prepare people for the VP debate, and assure them that Ryan will mop the floor with him.

Sorry, right wing. It's not going to work that way. Though I suppose that if Biden makes some small gaffe, they can fall back on the "OMG GAFFE MACHINE" trope to try to distract people from the asswhipping he gives Ryan otherwise.

I remember when they said that McCain was going to destroy Obama in the debates. He fell flat on his face on the first one and they they said he was going to destroy him in the "town hall" format. Then McCain was wondering around the stage in confusion like he was looking for his nurse or something.

Two things:

1) If they build up the idea that Ryan is going to crush Biden, it will be much easier for them to convince people that he won the debate, no matter what happens during the actual debate. People do not handle shocks very well, and if new facts are introduced that contradict their beliefs, they tend to double down on their beliefs.

2) You can't rely on Romney or Ryan being senile this time. You can definitely rely on them saying some things that make them seem completely unlikeable and out of touch, but you'll have to goad them into it. Probably by talking about the Ryan budget.


Romney has a shorter fuse than even McCain. It only took Obama about 10 min in debate one to get under his skin and make him make mistakes in anger. I'm going to give Mr. "No one tells me no" about 3-5 min....

:popcorn.jpg:
 
2012-08-16 04:55:42 PM

jwilson07: What was missed by the libtard media was 20 million tea party voter deciding to not sit this election out as they did in 2008. Sorry obummer, your gone.



Deluded. Bitter. Wrong.
 
2012-08-16 04:58:16 PM

And again, everyone talks about Nate Silver, nobody actually bothers to read what he has to say. From TFA:

If you had a theory predicated on the idea that Mr. Ryan would produce a huge near-term swing in the polls - that he'd just sweep people off their feet, producing huge momentum for the Republican ticket as they headed into their convention - then the evidence so far is damaging. But I did not hear very much of that when Mr. Ryan was announced last weekend, even from conservatives who were pleased with the pick. Instead, the arguments both for and against Mr. Ryan were about the long-term balance of risk and reward that he might present to Mr. Romney.


Remember that John McCain got a huge bounce from picking Sarah Palin as VP - Gallup briefly had him leading Obama by 10% after the GOP convention and other polls showed a big swing in the race. That died off pretty damn quickly.

The point of picking Ryan, a relative unknown, was not to get a big bounce in the polls. It was all about the long-term game. And if you look closely at the polls, you see a bump forming in some of the key swing states. Purple Strategies (which is made up of veteran GOP and Dem pollsters) shows that clearly - they don't have much of a record yet, but the internals of their polls look quite good.

If Romney can keep building on his current numbers, there's a good chance he can win. Everyone on Fark has been fixated on the early polls and the 538 forecasts, forgetting that polls in early August mean fark-all to what the outcome is in November. What matters is what happens in the fall, and right now the numbers are reverting back to the mean, just as they do in every election at this time.
 
2012-08-16 04:58:33 PM

jwilson07: What was missed by the libtard media was 20 million tea party voter deciding to not sit this election out as they did in 2008. Sorry obummer, your gone.


Dumbass, those teatards were out there before wearing the Republican banner like they still are today and McCain/Palin still ended up on the sidelines.
 
2012-08-16 04:58:35 PM
I didn't expect to see any bounce in the early part of the week. The announcement was buried on a Saturday. Maybe there will be a true bounce next week. Or, maybe Ryan added a permanent 1% to Romney's numbers. Either way, adding someone, anyone, had to help Romney. There are far fewer tax return threads this week.
 
2012-08-16 04:58:47 PM
I am curious if that is always the case, most people I know that don't really follow politics or even casually follow it have never heard of him at all. Does the VPs name recognition play into the bounce.
 
2012-08-16 04:58:51 PM
I see Farkers curled in a fetal position inb the corner, quietly chanting "It'll be all right, Obama will win, it'll be alright....."

Sorry, right wing. It's not going to work that way. Though I suppose that if Biden makes some small gaffe, they can fall back on the "OMG GAFFE MACHINE" trope to try to distract people from the asswhipping he gives Ryan otherwise.

Dream on. Biden in real life has been acting more and more like Jason Sudekis's impression of him on SNL. Ryan will in fact wipe the floor with him. Biden will roll out the emotional "Republicans gonna rape Granny!" and Ryan will explain clearly why the budget is on course for implosion unless things change. The undecideds will respond to rational statements of reality, not foaming at the mouth rhetoric...
 
2012-08-16 04:59:55 PM

WombatControl: If Romney can keep building on his current numbers, there's a good chance he can win. Everyone on Fark has been fixated on the early polls and the 538 forecasts, forgetting that polls in early August mean fark-all to what the outcome is in November. What matters is what happens in the fall, and right now the numbers are reverting back to the mean, just as they do in every election at this time.


Yes, yes. Change game, Romney wins, etc. You've been saying that for weeks while the poll numbers move in the opposite direction.
 
2012-08-16 05:00:19 PM

FloydA: AngryJailhouseFistfark: Dial me in, here, folks. I see "Weeners" getting inserted in an awkward fashion, often not quite where it would naturally fit, nor in keeping with the rest of the thrust of the statement.

Fark is not your personal erotica site.


But then you don't know my very peculiar fetish, do ye?
 
2012-08-16 05:01:19 PM

mark12A: The undecideds will respond to rational statements of reality


The only problem is that the Ryan Plan, with its 4% GDP growth and absurdly low unemployment assumptions, is not a rational statement of reality.
 
2012-08-16 05:02:13 PM

jwilson07: What was missed by the libtard media was 20 million tea party voter deciding to not sit this election out as they did in 2008. Sorry obummer, your gone.


Eh, 3/10. I'm subtracting points for correction capitalization and punctuation, and obummer. Full credit for the use of libtard and the incorrect usage of singular case and "your". You could have earned a 5 if you had gone with FartBongo de la socialistcommiepuppyeater.
 
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