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(Marketwatch)   Come on Euro. DON'T DIE ON ME MANNN   (marketwatch.com) divider line 53
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3421 clicks; posted to Business » on 15 Aug 2012 at 12:43 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-08-15 11:36:29 AM
YOU'VE NEVER GIVEN UP ON ANYTHING IN YOUR LIFE!!!
 
vpb [TotalFark]
2012-08-15 12:26:23 PM
The Euro may fail in Greece, but places like Germany are one of the "safe havens, where money flees. That's why interest rates are so low. I don't see how the Euro is going to fail in Germany, even if Greece drops out.
 
2012-08-15 12:43:51 PM
I think he's over-stating the damage in the article.
 
2012-08-15 12:45:31 PM

vpb: The Euro may fail in Greece, but places like Germany are one of the "safe havens, where money flees. That's why interest rates are so low. I don't see how the Euro is going to fail in Germany, even if Greece drops out.


You don't understand, if Greece leaves the Euro, it will be economic Apocalypse. FTFA: "if Greece is refused its third bailout, the country may be kicked out, and the entire currency could unravel over the course of a few chaotic days."

To give you a sense how bad this would be, it would be like if the US lost its AAA rating. If that happened, investors would flee US Treasury notes, and the US wouldn't be able to pay for its spending. The US would have to default on all its loans, and it would collapse into a 3rd world country - almost overnight.
 
2012-08-15 12:47:35 PM
Remember when the Euro came out and it was all high and mighty like "Ha ha look at me Dollar. I'm better than you ha ha"

How's that working out for you?
 
2012-08-15 12:56:57 PM

Walker: Remember when the Euro came out and it was all high and mighty like "Ha ha look at me Dollar. I'm better than you ha ha"

How's that working out for you?


The EURO was doomed when the 15 (or 25 countries now) couldn't pass a EU constitution and have a unified economy. The article is pretty spot on that the EURO is not really a currency for the whole area when interest rates on government bonds are at different rates for all members.
 
2012-08-15 01:11:44 PM
The euro was a political idea imposed on the economy, with no serious thought as to the consequences. Those that DID point the consequences out (accurately, as it turns out) were shouted down as "anti-European" and even accused of wanting another war (because any opposition to the EU is considered nationalistic, which is considered warmongering).
 
2012-08-15 01:12:09 PM

impaler: To give you a sense how bad this would be, it would be like if the US lost its AAA rating. If that happened, investors would flee US Treasury notes, and the US wouldn't be able to pay for its spending. The US would have to default on all its loans, and it would collapse into a 3rd world country - almost overnight.


Are you joking?
 
2012-08-15 01:16:45 PM
Is this the part where we get to see the Euro's cold wet blue tits?
 
2012-08-15 01:18:06 PM

vygramul: Are you joking?


Who would joke about such serious matters?
 
2012-08-15 01:31:30 PM

impaler: vygramul: Are you joking?

Who would joke about such serious matters?


August 2011

United States loses prized AAA credit rating from S&P
 
2012-08-15 01:33:57 PM

jdawg3k: impaler: vygramul: Are you joking?

Who would joke about such serious matters?

August 2011

United States loses prized AAA credit rating from S&P


Jesus farking Christ!!! Everybody panic!!!
 
2012-08-15 01:45:32 PM
Dude who names his column after a ferris wheel says the euro could carry sick on for a decade.
Subby fail.
 
2012-08-15 01:51:16 PM
Have the figured out how they will divide the Euro back into its original currencies? How do you decide how to divide up a billion euros sitting in a bank in New York?

Euro Central Bank: here are some nicely minted Lira, Peso, and Drachmas for your now defunct Euros

Depositors: LOL! Deutschmarks or GTFO
 
2012-08-15 01:52:43 PM
Um.... no. It's not the fear of the Euro's collapse, but the fear of a Greek exit and that impact on activity involving Greece.

Extrapolation beyond that to the entire Euro-zone is idiotic at best. A sign to up the dosage at worst.
 
2012-08-15 01:55:41 PM
If the Euro is down to Sweden, France, and Germany, then what's the point of it?
 
2012-08-15 01:57:02 PM

TheGreatGazoo: If the Euro is down to Sweden, France, and Germany, then what's the point of it?


Sweden uses the Euro?
 
2012-08-15 02:10:33 PM

impaler: jdawg3k: impaler: vygramul: Are you joking?

Who would joke about such serious matters?

August 2011

United States loses prized AAA credit rating from S&P

Jesus farking Christ!!! Everybody panic!!!


You managed to sink that hook pretty deep. Bravo.
 
2012-08-15 02:13:00 PM

russlar: TheGreatGazoo: If the Euro is down to Sweden, France, and Germany, then what's the point of it?

Sweden uses the Euro?


I thought the standard currency in all the Nordic countries was the LuteFish
 
2012-08-15 02:14:32 PM

Cinaed: Um.... no. It's not the fear of the Euro's collapse, but the fear of a Greek exit and that impact on activity involving Greece.

Extrapolation beyond that to the entire Euro-zone is idiotic at best. A sign to up the dosage at worst.


If Greece exits the euro, they'll convert to a devalued drachma and force losses on any existing creditors. That's all fine and good there, but the cascading effect will be that lenders to other weak euro countries such as Ireland, Spain, Italy, etc. will then see it as more likely that those countries will leave the euro.

That investor fear will raise borrowing rates for those countries, making it more difficult for them to service debts and making it more likely that they will leave the euro.
 
2012-08-15 02:18:47 PM

beta_plus: Have the figured out how they will divide the Euro back into its original currencies? How do you decide how to divide up a billion euros sitting in a bank in New York?

Euro Central Bank: here are some nicely minted Lira, Peso, and Drachmas for your now defunct Euros

Depositors: LOL! Deutschmarks or GTFO


Split it up by size of economy. Every euro will become 1 nearly worthless drachma, 1 franc, 1 mark, 1 lira, etc. with each one valued in proportion to the economy of the home nation. People would then be free to exchange the other currencies for their nation's home currency, so (generally) the currencies would flow back to their national homes.

Would be complex, but a little computer programming and printing press runs and you're there.
 
2012-08-15 02:18:53 PM

impaler: vpb: The Euro may fail in Greece, but places like Germany are one of the "safe havens, where money flees. That's why interest rates are so low. I don't see how the Euro is going to fail in Germany, even if Greece drops out.

You don't understand, if Greece leaves the Euro, it will be economic Apocalypse. FTFA: "if Greece is refused its third bailout, the country may be kicked out, and the entire currency could unravel over the course of a few chaotic days."

To give you a sense how bad this would be, it would be like if the US lost its AAA rating. If that happened, investors would flee US Treasury notes, and the US wouldn't be able to pay for its spending. The US would have to default on all its loans, and it would collapse into a 3rd world country - almost overnight.


The downgrade of the US's credit rating wasn't a disaster because it was only done by 1 agency, and it resulted from political gridlock, not economic weakness. There doesn't exist a more stable currency than the US dollar so to suggest that the dollar is a riskier investment than Australia or Denmark is a bit ludicrous.

If the Euro nations are forced to split up, it creates a whole set of issues. Let's say Greece withdraws or is kicked out of the Euro. What is the exchange rate for the new Greek currency? Does Greek debt get honored in Euros (which is what investors will want) or in Drachmas (which is what the Greeks will want)? Will Greeks that have contracts with Euro-based companies need to renegotiate their terms? And if Greece can get kicked out so easily, then what's to stop Spain or Italy from being next, and then what about France? Eventually, you'll just be down to Germany and at that point they'll have no reason to keep the Euro.

Also, the writer of the article seems to think that the Euro will collapse at the end of Ramadan 2014. Religion of Peace strikes again.
 
2012-08-15 02:20:01 PM

Debeo Summa Credo: Cinaed: Um.... no. It's not the fear of the Euro's collapse, but the fear of a Greek exit and that impact on activity involving Greece.

Extrapolation beyond that to the entire Euro-zone is idiotic at best. A sign to up the dosage at worst.

If Greece exits the euro, they'll convert to a devalued drachma and force losses on any existing creditors. That's all fine and good there, but the cascading effect will be that lenders to other weak euro countries such as Ireland, Spain, Italy, etc. will then see it as more likely that those countries will leave the euro.

That investor fear will raise borrowing rates for those countries, making it more difficult for them to service debts and making it more likely that they will leave the euro.


Ireland has an out: they could re-adopt the pound with a peg to the British pound. But pride/nationalism may prevent that.
 
2012-08-15 02:25:01 PM

JohnAnnArbor: beta_plus: Have the figured out how they will divide the Euro back into its original currencies? How do you decide how to divide up a billion euros sitting in a bank in New York?

Euro Central Bank: here are some nicely minted Lira, Peso, and Drachmas for your now defunct Euros

Depositors: LOL! Deutschmarks or GTFO

Split it up by size of economy. Every euro will become 1 nearly worthless drachma, 1 franc, 1 mark, 1 lira, etc. with each one valued in proportion to the economy of the home nation. People would then be free to exchange the other currencies for their nation's home currency, so (generally) the currencies would flow back to their national homes.

Would be complex, but a little computer programming and printing press runs and you're there.


Your plan sounds like it takes care of the technical part. It's the political part that's going to be interesting. Everyone is going to be kicking and screaming so that they're not the ones who end up with all the crappy lira and pesos and not all of the nice shiny dmarks and guilders.
 
2012-08-15 02:36:28 PM

Walker: Remember when the Euro came out and it was all high and mighty like "Ha ha look at me Dollar. I'm better than you ha ha"

How's that working out for you?


The Euro kicked my dog and grabbed by girlfriend's ass.
 
2012-08-15 03:02:30 PM

Debeo Summa Credo: That's all fine and good there, but the cascading...


And that's where you lose me. The other nations, Ireland/Spain/Italy/etc are not the same as Greece, not by a long shot, and while each have issues, they are all separate and relatively distinct issues that actually have solutions that don't require rewriting the the very culture itself.
 
2012-08-15 03:07:21 PM

impaler: vpb: The Euro may fail in Greece, but places like Germany are one of the "safe havens, where money flees. That's why interest rates are so low. I don't see how the Euro is going to fail in Germany, even if Greece drops out.

You don't understand, if Greece leaves the Euro, it will be economic Apocalypse. FTFA: "if Greece is refused its third bailout, the country may be kicked out, and the entire currency could unravel over the course of a few chaotic days."

To give you a sense how bad this would be, it would be like

if the US lost its AAA rating. If that happened, investors would flee US Treasury notes, and the US wouldn't be able to pay for its spending. The US would have to default on all its loans, and it would collapse into a 3rd world country - almost overnight.

If? Where the hell have you been for the last year?
 
2012-08-15 03:25:33 PM

impaler: To give you a sense how bad this would be, it would be like if the US lost its AAA rating. If that happened, investors would flee US Treasury notes, and the US wouldn't be able to pay for its spending. The US would have to default on all its loans, and it would collapse into a 3rd world country - almost overnight.


9/10. It would have been 10/10 but the Greek judge sandbagged you out of nationalistic pride.
 
2012-08-15 03:32:47 PM

AeAe: The Euro kicked my dog and grabbed by girlfriend's ass.


The Euro ate my Twinkies then left the door to the refridgerator open after putting back the milk.
 
2012-08-15 03:44:07 PM

Talondel: impaler: To give you a sense how bad this would be, it would be like if the US lost its AAA rating. If that happened, investors would flee US Treasury notes, and the US wouldn't be able to pay for its spending. The US would have to default on all its loans, and it would collapse into a 3rd world country - almost overnight.

9/10. It would have been 10/10 but the Greek judge sandbagged you out of nationalistic pride.


I haven't seen anyone get that many bites at one time in quite awhile. My hat is off to him.
 
2012-08-15 04:00:27 PM

Cinaed: Debeo Summa Credo: That's all fine and good there, but the cascading...

And that's where you lose me. The other nations, Ireland/Spain/Italy/etc are not the same as Greece, not by a long shot, and while each have issues, they are all separate and relatively distinct issues that actually have solutions that don't require rewriting the the very culture itself.


What's to stop other countries using Greek's model to get out of paying back debt in Euros? If Greece is successful in getting out of the Euro zone and paying their debt in their currency other countries would be SMART to follow in their steps because it will be cheaper for them.
 
2012-08-15 04:22:52 PM
considering that the euro has been "on the verge of collapse" for two years, its valued pretty strongly against most other world currencies. granted, Switzerland has been printing francs like crazy (over 70% of GDP this year so far) to buy euros and other currencies, so maybe that is helping.

even if Spain gets bailed out and Greece leaves, the euro isn't expected to drop to parity with the US Dollar by the end of this year.
 
2012-08-15 04:42:09 PM

Talondel: impaler: To give you a sense how bad this would be, it would be like if the US lost its AAA rating. If that happened, investors would flee US Treasury notes, and the US wouldn't be able to pay for its spending. The US would have to default on all its loans, and it would collapse into a 3rd world country - almost overnight.

9/10. It would have been 10/10 but the Greek judge sandbagged you out of nationalistic pride.


dumbobruni: considering that the euro has been "on the verge of collapse" for two years, its valued pretty strongly against most other world currencies. granted, Switzerland has been printing francs like crazy (over 70% of GDP this year so far) to buy euros and other currencies, so maybe that is helping.

even if Spain gets bailed out and Greece leaves, the euro isn't expected to drop to parity with the US Dollar by the end of this year.


You're equating valuation with stability. Two different things. If the overall economic picture looked better, I could maybe buy the arguement the Euro could be salvaged. However, the EU is in a full-blown recession and the rest of the world isn't far behind. The U.S. and Asia are stumbling and about to fall. This is while the yield on Spanish and Irish debt is dangerously high - close to the unsustainable 7%. Not just Greece, but a number of EU countries are teetering on the edge, all while we are headed into a worldwide recession. I don't see an out.

"I place economy among the first and most important of virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers to be feared." "To preserve our independence we must not let our leaders load us with perpetual debt. ....If we can prevent the government from wasting the labours of the people under the pretence of caring for them, we will be wise."
- Thomas Jefferson
 
2012-08-15 04:45:55 PM

Pumpernickel bread: Talondel: impaler: To give you a sense how bad this would be, it would be like if the US lost its AAA rating. If that happened, investors would flee US Treasury notes, and the US wouldn't be able to pay for its spending. The US would have to default on all its loans, and it would collapse into a 3rd world country - almost overnight.

9/10. It would have been 10/10 but the Greek judge sandbagged you out of nationalistic pride.

dumbobruni: considering that the euro has been "on the verge of collapse" for two years, its valued pretty strongly against most other world currencies. granted, Switzerland has been printing francs like crazy (over 70% of GDP this year so far) to buy euros and other currencies, so maybe that is helping.

even if Spain gets bailed out and Greece leaves, the euro isn't expected to drop to parity with the US Dollar by the end of this year.

You're equating valuation with stability. Two different things. If the overall economic picture looked better, I could maybe buy the arguement the Euro could be salvaged. However, the EU is in a full-blown recession and the rest of the world isn't far behind. The U.S. and Asia are stumbling and about to fall. This is while the yield on Spanish and Irish debt is dangerously high - close to the unsustainable 7%. Not just Greece, but a number of EU countries are teetering on the edge, all while we are headed into a worldwide recession. I don't see an out.

"I place economy among the first and most important of virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers to be feared." "To preserve our independence we must not let our leaders load us with perpetual debt. ....If we can prevent the government from wasting the labours of the people under the pretence of caring for them, we will be wise."
- Thomas Jefferson


it must suck to be such a pessimist. you've been reading too much Zerohedge.

/congrats, market bears. you guys are not the contrarians anymore
 
2012-08-15 04:47:47 PM
Only more borrowing and entitlements can save them.
 
2012-08-15 04:57:47 PM

Cinaed: Debeo Summa Credo: That's all fine and good there, but the cascading...

And that's where you lose me. The other nations, Ireland/Spain/Italy/etc are not the same as Greece, not by a long shot, and while each have issues, they are all separate and relatively distinct issues that actually have solutions that don't require rewriting the the very culture itself.


That's the weird thing about money (this applies to you goldbugs, too - so listen up).

Money is completely dependent on the faith that each and every person places in it. If enough people lose faith in a currency, the currency is by definition worthless.

If Greece goes, it doesn't matter what the objective facts are supporting Euro stability in Spain, Italy, et al. If people believe, rationally or irrationally, that the Euro is kaput, then it is.
 
2012-08-15 05:08:19 PM
blah blah blah

What's this mean for my trip to Paris next April?
 
2012-08-15 05:12:39 PM

Soup4Bonnie: blah blah blah

What's this mean for my trip to Paris next April?


it means you should have the valencay au lait cru, paired with chablis if possible
 
2012-08-15 05:56:07 PM

Stile4aly: If the Euro nations are forced to split up, it creates a whole set of issues. Let's say Greece withdraws or is kicked out of the Euro. What is the exchange rate for the new Greek currency? Does Greek debt get honored in Euros (which is what investors will want) or in Drachmas (which is what the Greeks will want)? Will Greeks that have contracts with Euro-based companies need to renegotiate their terms? And if Greece can get kicked out so easily, then what's to stop Spain or Italy from being next, and then what about France? Eventually, you'll just be down to Germany and at that point they'll have no reason to keep the Euro.


My guess is that Greece would force conversion into Drachma 2.0 of all Euros that are in-country or in institutions that are exposed to Greek jurisdiction, at a rate that the Greek government dictates. Approximately 1 millisecond after Drachma 2.0 springs into existence and floats against the Euro, it drops like a rock in value to whatever its natural level is and everyone with Drachma 2.0 gets screwed. This is why anyone with Euros is desperately doing whatever they can to get them the hell out of Greece, and why they're already talking about currency controls.
 
2012-08-15 06:04:03 PM

dumbobruni: it means you should have the valencay au lait cru, paired with chablis if possible


What is that, like a Big Mac?
 
2012-08-15 06:22:49 PM
24.media.tumblr.com


So all we have to do is nothing drastic and not change radically over the next few years to become the one true economic superpower?

Sounds easy enough...
 
2012-08-15 06:34:24 PM
Some people seriously got trolled by that US AAA credit rating comment...
 
2012-08-15 06:48:02 PM
The Euro is too big to fail. Get ready to bend over, Europe.
 
2012-08-15 07:01:49 PM
impaler: funny stuff, man.
 
2012-08-15 07:18:13 PM
ddam: Cinaed: Debeo Summa Credo: That's all fine and good there, but the cascading...

And that's where you lose me. The other nations, Ireland/Spain/Italy/etc are not the same as Greece, not by a long shot, and while each have issues, they are all separate and relatively distinct issues that actually have solutions that don't require rewriting the the very culture itself.

What's to stop other countries using Greek's model to get out of paying back debt in Euros? If Greece is successful in getting out of the Euro zone and paying their debt in their currency other countries would be SMART to follow in their steps because it will be cheaper for them.


Greek debt is government debt, as in the Greek government borrowed too much money, didn't collect enough taxes and ended up in trouble.

Irish and Spanish debt is (or was) private debt that was taken on by their governments. The Irish and Spanish government had low public debt, decent budget surpluses and overall exemplary budgets. The problem was Irish and Spanish banks which were lending money like crazy and pouring it into local property bubbles. When those burst the Irish and Spanish banks were all insolvent. The governments stepped in and guaranteed all those private debts, which pretty much destroyed their lovely public budgets. If they were to leave the Euro and essentially default on those obligations then they would end up doing the very thing they wanted to avoid in the first place. I'm not saying it can't happen, but they have some very good reasons not to do it. Oh, and because it was the banks and not the government that screwed up in those countries, the EU doesn't have the same kind of leverage in trying to impose demands on them, like they do with the Greeks.

Italy is a special case. Too big to fail, too big to bail out. They have fairly high debt (they've always had), but also a primary budget surplus. As long as the market doesn't screw with them, the Italians can get through this without too much trouble.
 
2012-08-15 08:34:36 PM

Pumpernickel bread: Talondel


No idea why you quoted me, but I'll add this one:

As a very important source of strength and security, cherish public credit. One method of preserving it is, to use it as sparingly as possible; avoiding occasions of expense by cultivating peace, but remembering also that timely disbursements to prepare for danger frequently prevent much greater disbursements to repel it; avoiding likewise the accumulation of debt, not only by shunning occasions of expense, but by vigorous exertions in time of peace to discharge the debts, which unavoidable wars may have occasioned, not ungenerously throwing upon posterity the burthen, which we ourselves ought to bear.
-George Washington
 
2012-08-15 09:59:32 PM
I'm sure this isn't a north american bias. nawww.
 
2012-08-16 07:15:08 AM

Phil Moskowitz: I'm sure this isn't a north american bias. nawww.


So am I.

I knew it was British before clicking the article. They're the ones always printing this bullshiat, because they're butthurt about the Euro.
 
2012-08-16 08:33:56 AM

Representative of the unwashed masses: [24.media.tumblr.com image 290x461]

So all we have to do is nothing drastic and not change radically over the next few years to become the one true economic superpower?

Sounds easy enough...


You only live twice, Mr. Bond.
 
2012-08-16 09:08:44 AM
BTW, I wasn't deliberately trying to troll. I was just trying to give an amusing sarcastic commentary on how business reporting is always about total doom and gloom (when it isn't total sunshine and rainbows), and juxtaposed things that were said about the US losing AAA rating, and Greece leaving the Euro.

BTW, I've only had one submitted link ever get approved by fark:
S&P downgrades US Treasury securities for the first time ever. Market panics. Investors flee risk and move to standard safe-haven: US Treasury securities
Link
 
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