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(GadgetBox)   15 technologies we'll still be using in 2030. List fails without automatic kid ejector for your lawn   (gadgetbox.msnbc.msn.com) divider line 120
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8174 clicks; posted to Geek » on 12 Aug 2012 at 5:24 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-08-12 11:56:39 AM
Wrong, author, your son will be working at Wal Mart in 15 years.
 
2012-08-12 12:13:03 PM
but in so many areas of technology the pace of change is slower than Windows Vista booting off a floppy disk.

What was the last version of Windows that would actually boot off a floppy? Not Vista, that's for damn sure.
 
2012-08-12 12:24:36 PM

Jamdug!: That's effectively 15 years away, which is nothing. What a junk article. You'll most likely still be driving the same car you drive today in 2030.


Because nothing has disappeared in the last fifteen years....

video tape
landline telephones
film cameras
analog tv
vinyl/tape/cds

Nope. Nothing changes in fifteen years.
 
2012-08-12 12:39:42 PM
no toilet paper? i wonder what we'll be using instead. -1 internet for anyone who says 'shells'.

also, i'm not convinced about .jpg.
 
2012-08-12 12:43:31 PM

mat catastrophe: Jamdug!: That's effectively 15 years away, which is nothing. What a junk article. You'll most likely still be driving the same car you drive today in 2030.

Because nothing has disappeared in the last fifteen years....

video tape: Still there, albeit in massive decline and hard to find nowadays.
landline telephones: You mean they dug up all the existing land lines and replaced them all? Don't think so.
film cameras: Still used, but again, in massive decline. The disposable ones that you get and turn the whole camera in to get the film developed get used here and there for the cheap.
analog tv: Sure they aren't broadcasting analog anymore but plenty of people still have analog sets.
vinyl/tape/cds: If I really have to tell you that those are still around, there's no help for you.


Nope. Nothing changes in fifteen years.

 
2012-08-12 12:58:53 PM

dittybopper: You know what else we will be using in 2030?

[vibroplex.com image 350x235]

Telegraph keys. First invented back in the 1840s, they are still being manufactured and purchased today, from cheap stamped metal and plastic keys that cost $12, to finely crafted keys costing over $700 and everything in between.

/Well, at least *I'LL* be using them.


I won't. If I have to send Morse code over the airwaves, I'll likely be in a position that I'm tapping the stripped end of a wire to another to complete the improvised circuit I hooked up.

Won't be surprised either if I fark it up and burn out the transmitter.
 
2012-08-12 01:03:46 PM

Malivon: Save everything in .PDF - Formatting problems fixed and can save a few headaches.


Ah, thanks for reminding us of something that will still be around in fifteen years:

daily Acrobat updates from Adobe.

/Seriously, is there any software that needs patching more often than Acrobat?
//Difficulty: Can't name other Adobe software
 
2012-08-12 01:09:42 PM

EngineerAU: Malivon: Save everything in .PDF - Formatting problems fixed and can save a few headaches.

Ah, thanks for reminding us of something that will still be around in fifteen years:

daily Acrobat updates from Adobe.

/Seriously, is there any software that needs patching more often than Acrobat?
//Difficulty: Can't name other Adobe software


Mozilla Firefox.

What do I win?
 
2012-08-12 01:17:14 PM

rickycal78: mat catastrophe: Jamdug!: That's effectively 15 years away, which is nothing. What a junk article. You'll most likely still be driving the same car you drive today in 2030.

Because nothing has disappeared in the last fifteen years....

video tape: Still there, albeit in massive decline and hard to find nowadays.
landline telephones: You mean they dug up all the existing land lines and replaced them all? Don't think so.
film cameras: Still used, but again, in massive decline. The disposable ones that you get and turn the whole camera in to get the film developed get used here and there for the cheap.
analog tv: Sure they aren't broadcasting analog anymore but plenty of people still have analog sets.
vinyl/tape/cds: If I really have to tell you that those are still around, there's no help for you.


Nope. Nothing changes in fifteen years.


Do you know how badly you failed at this reply? Just in the technical sense of how discussion threads work, not necessarily in your points....

Actually, your points are pretty crap, too.

Hey, can I add DVDs and Blu-Ray to my list? They're pretty dead as well.

So are Big Box stores.

Deprecation and disuse, while not the same as dead, are the next best thing. There are always outliers using outmoded or outdated tech for some reason (with vinyl, it's because you're a douchebag hipsters - with, say, a standard def TV it's because you're a cheap bastard) but that doesn't mean they are mainstream commodities anymore. Far from it: they become niche concepts - cults, even.

The sheer difference in the world today from fifteen years ago is staggering (and from fifteen before that is positively exhausting to think about - ask your parents) and there's no way to tell what will or will not survive another fifteen years with the same level of use and support that exists today.

Which is more to the point of the post I was actually replying to.
 
2012-08-12 01:18:15 PM
Whenever someone says, "PCs are becoming extinct." you can safely write them off as a moron. Especially if you hear such buzzwords like "the cloud" and "tablet computing".

/one day, my son
//but it ain't today
 
2012-08-12 01:19:35 PM
Road Reflectors
Ceramic Transmission Insulator
Computerized Grid Control
Traffic Lights
Refrigeration
Lubricating Oil
Vulcanized Rubber
Cellular Communications
Heatsinks
Fiber Optic Communications
Newsprint
Herbicides
Antibiotics
Immunization
Skype
Windows OS
Espresso Machines
Plastic Credit Cards With Magnetic Strips
Coal Fired Power Plants
Gasoline and Diesel powered vehicles.
Robotic Interplanetary Exploration
Achievement Tests
grindr
Lightning Rods
High Bypass Fanjet engines
Parachutes
Forced Modeling
Lithium batteries
Steel Hulled Ships
Convection Stoves
Depth Finders/Fish Finders
Photoshop



Its not hard to come up with tech we'd still be using.
The magnetized credit card hasn't changed since it was invented.
Electric cars haven't gotten any better since the 1890s.
Steel construction is STILL the cheapest, most reliable, most effective AND most environmentally conscious way to build boats.
Newspapers will ALWAYS be a form of communication and advertising.
Road Reflectors have saved more lives in the history of man than medicine and miracles combined.
 
2012-08-12 01:19:44 PM

mat catastrophe: Jamdug!: That's effectively 15 years away, which is nothing. What a junk article. You'll most likely still be driving the same car you drive today in 2030.

Because nothing has disappeared in the last fifteen years....

video tape
landline telephones
film cameras
analog tv
vinyl/tape/cds

Nope. Nothing changes in fifteen years.


One things that's disappeared is the ability to do basic math. 2030 - 2012 = 18 years. There must be 50 references so far to this "15" year period.
 
2012-08-12 01:21:00 PM
Article gets +1 for 3 hour "Fish Heads" loop.
 
2012-08-12 01:21:47 PM
Lets just point out what he's wrong on.

PCs and Local storage are already starting to change, but even more change will come with high speed networks. While yes, progress has been slow due to communications monopolies, even they can't prevent the march of the future from reaching the U.S., and gigabit ethernet will be here in 15 years. Google will do it all by themselves if they have to.

PCs - But the drive for faster and faster PCs is over. It was over years ago. The only real innovation went on in high end video cards, and that too is over. Sadly (to me anyway), much of the gaming world has moved to the console. Yeah, there are exceptions to this rule, but today games are written for the largest audience possible, and that means mid-range video cards and consoles.
Local storage - mostly wrong. I'm sure there will be some local storage for things like the OS, but even for video editing and yes, gaming, why render locally when you can render on the cloud where huge multi core machines with gigs of ram can be used as efficiently as possible with the latest software. No, grandma isn't going to spin these up, it will all be transparent and simple over gigabit internet. The same will apply to photo editing btw. Good riddance Photoshop and whatever tools are around today.

Cash - Yeah, but we will use SOO much less cash. Mobile phones are going to change this game. We're behind in the US, but it's coming.

Office - Whatever. I heard that Internet Explorer is the best browser too. The gig is up.

Probably everything else is right. USB, Keyboards. HTML yeah. Clamshell notebooks? That or the flippy keyboard, whatever, they are basically the same thing. Email? Probably. The battle over spam has been won. Email might not seem like email today in 15 years, but letters over electronic format are a natural human fit.

Who the hell knows whether or not JPEG will be around. I think the argument will be irrelevant. Stuff will be stored on the cloud and you won't care except for photographers who will want to know whether it's a lossy or raw format.

Lithium batteries. No idea. 3.5 jacks? Yeah, I hope anyway.

Laser printers. Everything that prints sucks. TVs? I'm with the other guy here who said that they aren't TVs anymore, they are monitors.
 
2012-08-12 01:30:57 PM

Yaxe: Whenever someone says, "PCs are becoming extinct." you can safely write them off as a moron. Especially if you hear such buzzwords like "the cloud" and "tablet computing".

/one day, my son
//but it ain't today


Hence, why the list says 15 years. When I can buy a $30 screen in do everything a $3,000 high end video editing machine can do yesterday faster (no startup times) - you'll see the why "cloud computer" -- despite the unforunate buzziness of the word - is the end game.
 
2012-08-12 01:41:57 PM
One I'm curious about is the VGA adapter. All these new fangled digital connectors have the same issue. A short cable length and high cost. They can have my $5 50 foot Chinese made VGA cable when they pry it out of my cold dead hands.

/it works fine at 1920x1080
 
2012-08-12 01:50:43 PM

RickN99: mat catastrophe: Jamdug!: That's effectively 15 years away, which is nothing. What a junk article. You'll most likely still be driving the same car you drive today in 2030.

Because nothing has disappeared in the last fifteen years....

video tape
landline telephones
film cameras
analog tv
vinyl/tape/cds

Nope. Nothing changes in fifteen years.

One things that's disappeared is the ability to do basic math. 2030 - 2012 = 18 years. There must be 50 references so far to this "15" year period.


I let it slide because the qualifier "effectively" was used. I would also have accepted twenty years.

I mean, who talks about epochal time that tightly? We say things like "in the last century" when we probably mean the last sixty years or so, etc etc etc...
 
2012-08-12 02:22:14 PM
us.123rf.com
 
2012-08-12 02:30:48 PM

MachineHead: One I'm curious about is the VGA adapter. All these new fangled digital connectors have the same issue. A short cable length and high cost. They can have my $5 50 foot Chinese made VGA cable when they pry it out of my cold dead hands.

/it works fine at 1920x1080


You're running 1080 resolution over VGA?.../facepalm.

Protip: You can buy longer HDMI cables.
 
2012-08-12 02:51:56 PM

The_Y2P_Problem: EngineerAU: Malivon: Save everything in .PDF - Formatting problems fixed and can save a few headaches.

Ah, thanks for reminding us of something that will still be around in fifteen years:

daily Acrobat updates from Adobe.

/Seriously, is there any software that needs patching more often than Acrobat?
//Difficulty: Can't name other Adobe software

Mozilla Firefox.

What do I win?


Silly boy...FF isn't being patched. It's evolving. Just wait 'til it goes self-aware...
 
2012-08-12 03:07:59 PM

MachineHead: One I'm curious about is the VGA adapter. All these new fangled digital connectors have the same issue. A short cable length and high cost. They can have my $5 50 foot Chinese made VGA cable when they pry it out of my cold dead hands.

/it works fine at 1920x1080


That's because you're a moron who only looks at monster cables.
 
2012-08-12 03:09:01 PM

kyleaugustus: [us.123rf.com image 850x567]


Not if Paul Ryan has his way.
 
2012-08-12 03:17:22 PM

Lukeonia1: namatad: 2) MS office was the one glaring miss hit. Why would students be using word? My guess is that the free equivalent will have replaced word by then for pretty much everyone but business and possibly authors ...

As long as schools and businesses continue to buy and use Microsoft Office products, so will the rest of the population. Most people aren't going to bother using a different product at home than they do at work, just to save a few bucks.

And don't get your hopes up that schools and businesses will switch any time soon either. Besides the fact that people are wary of change in general (especially when other people's money is involved), folks will either see "free" and conclude that OpenOffice is limited and inferior, or they'll see "open source" and assume you have to be some sort of computer programmer to be able to use it.

Plus Microsoft has the untold millions of dollars in advertising money to make sure people stick with that impression...


This is true for enterprise end-users -- people who need to take their professional work home, and be able to independently and locally deliver enterprise-ready work units. But for pretty much everyone else -- which, honestly, is *most* people -- pretty much any compatible utility will do. I've used OOO and LO for over a decade now, *including* for enterprise work, and I think that will become a lot more common, once people catch on. (Assuming they ever do. I assumed this would be the case by now ten years ago, too, and I was obviously mistaken.) I can't believe that casual users still buy MSO or any of its components, at least not in the numbers they clearly do.
 
2012-08-12 03:28:57 PM

Gordon Bennett: It's the true technological classics that will never go away. Fire. Knife. Cloth. Rope. Fishing nets. Pointy sticks. Agriculture. Pottery. Writing. Maths.

The Stone Age technologies that quite literally made us human and later made us civilised. Those will be with us forever. Though admittedly pointy sticks have been largely relegated to pucking food particles out from between our teeth and refusing to address in self-defence classes.


I think it's important to discriminate between the prehistoric nomadic period of humanity and the post-settlement period that actually marks the start of civilisation. Many of the tools you identify are key to both. But according to famed science historian James Burke, "the first great manmade trigger of change" is the plow. The plow fundamentally changed the way humans relate to the rest of the world, and to each other. Several of the things you mention actually -- and quite necessarily -- follow from this single great change.
 
2012-08-12 03:28:59 PM

Jamdug!: That's effectively 15 years away, which is nothing. What a junk article. You'll most likely still be driving the same car you drive today in 2030.


2030 - 2012 = "effectively 15"??

Is this some sort of new math with which I'm unfamiliar?
 
2012-08-12 03:32:13 PM

Caeldan: Malivon: Save everything in .PDF - Formatting problems fixed and can save a few headaches.

Except then you cant receive edits back.


It depends on your software, and how you received it. Some PDFs can't be edited, but most can. It's just that most users don't have PDF editing software installed.
 
2012-08-12 03:36:40 PM

Sylvia_Bandersnatch: Lukeonia1: namatad: 2) MS office was the one glaring miss hit. Why would students be using word? My guess is that the free equivalent will have replaced word by then for pretty much everyone but business and possibly authors ...

As long as schools and businesses continue to buy and use Microsoft Office products, so will the rest of the population. Most people aren't going to bother using a different product at home than they do at work, just to save a few bucks.

And don't get your hopes up that schools and businesses will switch any time soon either. Besides the fact that people are wary of change in general (especially when other people's money is involved), folks will either see "free" and conclude that OpenOffice is limited and inferior, or they'll see "open source" and assume you have to be some sort of computer programmer to be able to use it.

Plus Microsoft has the untold millions of dollars in advertising money to make sure people stick with that impression...

This is true for enterprise end-users -- people who need to take their professional work home, and be able to independently and locally deliver enterprise-ready work units. But for pretty much everyone else -- which, honestly, is *most* people -- pretty much any compatible utility will do. I've used OOO and LO for over a decade now, *including* for enterprise work, and I think that will become a lot more common, once people catch on. (Assuming they ever do. I assumed this would be the case by now ten years ago, too, and I was obviously mistaken.) I can't believe that casual users still buy MSO or any of its components, at least not in the numbers they clearly do.


Most new computers come with a reduced version of Office (excel and word) and I think the option for the full blow home version is like $99. 90% of office usage is in excel and word, probably higher for home users, so I don't exactly see it going anywhere.

/using OO as I speak
 
2012-08-12 03:37:21 PM
Umm, someone tell these guys about Duct Tape please (capitals intentional). Also WD40.
 
2012-08-12 03:41:21 PM

redmid17: That's because you're a moron who only looks at monster cables.


Hey, I'm happy to be proven wrong. Give me the secret source of a HDMI cable 15 meters for less than 10 bucks.
 
2012-08-12 03:48:42 PM
I'm going to drunk drive into this uppity biatch's kid on prom night in 15 years.

/If he survives I hope he goes to Penn State
//I'll give him his farking Booster shot
 
2012-08-12 03:48:58 PM

The_Y2P_Problem: Mozilla Firefox.

What do I win?


A free update!
 
2012-08-12 03:50:57 PM

mat catastrophe: The sheer difference in the world today from fifteen years ago is staggering


People tend to vastly over estimate how much things can change in a year and vastly under estimate how much things can change in a decade.
 
2012-08-12 03:51:51 PM

Hand Banana: You're running 1080 resolution over VGA?.../facepalm.

Protip: You can buy longer HDMI cables.


WTF is wrong with people? HDMI isn't rated over 45 feet. Yes, as the article says, it will work, but YMMV, and it's more expensive. I have three monitors, I'm not laying out $60+ for video cabling alone.

Since I last bought these VGA cables (five years ago), the prices have dropped, but it's still 3-5 times the cost of long length VGA cables, unless someone shows me different (again, which I'm happy to be proven wrong on)
 
2012-08-12 03:54:17 PM

MachineHead: redmid17: That's because you're a moron who only looks at monster cables.

Hey, I'm happy to be proven wrong. Give me the secret source of a HDMI cable 15 meters for less than 10 bucks.


Link

Link
 
2012-08-12 03:56:26 PM

redmid17: MachineHead: redmid17: That's because you're a moron who only looks at monster cables.

Hey, I'm happy to be proven wrong. Give me the secret source of a HDMI cable 15 meters for less than 10 bucks.

Link

Link


Sorry I read that as 15 feet. Why the fark are you running cables 45 feet?
 
2012-08-12 03:56:56 PM

kyleaugustus: [us.123rf.com image 850x567]


No kidding. As long as AIDS, herpes, and HPV are incurable, and especially now that drug-resistant gonorrhea has come along. (By the way, thanks a lot for that, you idiot germophobes. Your antibacterial salad dressing will be the death of all of us.)
 
2012-08-12 04:00:58 PM

AlteredChemical: Umm, someone tell these guys about Duct Tape please (capitals intentional). Also WD40.


To be fair, TFA isn't about the kinds of tools that *everyone* agrees aren't going anywhere, like hammers and ladders, but about what most people will consider transient technologies, or milestones along the way to greater things. Most computer users have seen a great deal of change over fairly short periods, and probably expect nearly everything they know to be different by a decade or two out. He's just pointing out examples of the ones he thinks are likely to stick around longer than most people expect.
 
2012-08-12 04:11:44 PM

redmid17: Sorry I read that as 15 feet. Why the fark are you running cables 45 feet?


I have multiple boxes and it links down to the utility room where I can switch up via KVM (some are headless, but not all). It's quieter than trying to run a box in the same room too. Naturally, this means I'm also restricted in what devices I can use locally unless I want to run *that* over WIFI or find a long cable (USB devices are always fun). I prefer PS/2 keyboards in general because they have superior response times and are generally better made.
 
2012-08-12 04:14:47 PM

majestic: Wrong, author, your son will be working at Wal Mart in 15 years.


Everyone will be working at Wal Mart in 15 years, they are like the Weyland Yutani of reality.
 
2012-08-12 04:19:22 PM

Sylvia_Bandersnatch: By the way, thanks a lot for that, you idiot germophobes. Your antibacterial salad dressing will be the death of all of us.


Just because there's penicillin growing on my balls doesn't mean I'm a germophobe.
 
2012-08-12 04:19:51 PM
I misspoke when I said that all gaming would move to the cloud -- that can't be strictly true because the latency involved in any game which requires sub-millisecond response time will probably not be as enjoyable.

Not that it stops them from trying anyway.
 
2012-08-12 04:21:59 PM

Sylvia_Bandersnatch: No kidding. As long as AIDS, herpes, and HPV are incurable, and especially now that drug-resistant gonorrhea has come along. (By the way, thanks a lot for that, you idiot germophobes. Your antibacterial salad dressing will be the death of all of us.)


And babies. Still no cure for babies. (yes yes, birth control, snip snip yada yada)
 
2012-08-12 04:22:27 PM

Quantum Apostrophe: no magical hidden elements in the periodic table, no unobtainium.


Currently, that would be in the G block. :p
 
2012-08-12 04:44:37 PM
www.mobiletechworld.com
 
2012-08-12 04:46:46 PM

MachineHead: redmid17: Sorry I read that as 15 feet. Why the fark are you running cables 45 feet?

I have multiple boxes and it links down to the utility room where I can switch up via KVM (some are headless, but not all). It's quieter than trying to run a box in the same room too. Naturally, this means I'm also restricted in what devices I can use locally unless I want to run *that* over WIFI or find a long cable (USB devices are always fun). I prefer PS/2 keyboards in general because they have superior response times and are generally better made.


Good sir, I think you need to be introduced to Monoprice.

Cheap HDMI
Cheap DisplayPort
Mechanical USB keyboard

They have a ton of other good stuff on there as well, including a good selection of KVM goodies that you seem to love.
 
2012-08-12 04:57:22 PM

Sylvia_Bandersnatch: Gordon Bennett: It's the true technological classics that will never go away. Fire. Knife. Cloth. Rope. Fishing nets. Pointy sticks. Agriculture. Pottery. Writing. Maths.

The Stone Age technologies that quite literally made us human and later made us civilised. Those will be with us forever. Though admittedly pointy sticks have been largely relegated to pucking food particles out from between our teeth and refusing to address in self-defence classes.

I think it's important to discriminate between the prehistoric nomadic period of humanity and the post-settlement period that actually marks the start of civilisation. Many of the tools you identify are key to both. But according to famed science historian James Burke, "the first great manmade trigger of change" is the plow. The plow fundamentally changed the way humans relate to the rest of the world, and to each other. Several of the things you mention actually -- and quite necessarily -- follow from this single great change.


Fair point. I started typing with the idea of talking about Paleolithic technology and its permanence then was clearly carried away far too deeply into the New Stone Age, which is indeed quite different.
 
2012-08-12 05:18:19 PM

CmndrFish: MachineHead: redmid17: Sorry I read that as 15 feet. Why the fark are you running cables 45 feet?

I have multiple boxes and it links down to the utility room where I can switch up via KVM (some are headless, but not all). It's quieter than trying to run a box in the same room too. Naturally, this means I'm also restricted in what devices I can use locally unless I want to run *that* over WIFI or find a long cable (USB devices are always fun). I prefer PS/2 keyboards in general because they have superior response times and are generally better made.

Good sir, I think you need to be introduced to Monoprice.

Cheap HDMI
Cheap DisplayPort
Mechanical USB keyboard

They have a ton of other good stuff on there as well, including a good selection of KVM goodies that you seem to love.


I hadn't looked at monoprice in a while. Still, unless I'm still missing something, $45 for 50 foot HDMI. Again, compared to $5 VGA cables. I will admit, we're not comparing apples to apples to some extent. My cable won't deliver the exact same quality, but.... but... basically I'm cheap.
 
2012-08-12 05:20:40 PM

CmndrFish: MachineHead: redmid17: Sorry I read that as 15 feet. Why the fark are you running cables 45 feet?

I have multiple boxes and it links down to the utility room where I can switch up via KVM (some are headless, but not all). It's quieter than trying to run a box in the same room too. Naturally, this means I'm also restricted in what devices I can use locally unless I want to run *that* over WIFI or find a long cable (USB devices are always fun). I prefer PS/2 keyboards in general because they have superior response times and are generally better made.

Good sir, I think you need to be introduced to Monoprice.

Cheap HDMI
Cheap DisplayPort
Mechanical USB keyboard

They have a ton of other good stuff on there as well, including a good selection of KVM goodies that you seem to love.


Then again, I just looked at ebay for my mythical $5 vga cables, and at best I found $12.

/it was 5 years ago, soooo, maybe that's the diff.
 
2012-08-12 06:00:23 PM

Hand Banana: MachineHead: One I'm curious about is the VGA adapter. All these new fangled digital connectors have the same issue. A short cable length and high cost. They can have my $5 50 foot Chinese made VGA cable when they pry it out of my cold dead hands.

/it works fine at 1920x1080

You're running 1080 resolution over VGA?.../facepalm.

Protip: You can buy longer HDMI cables.


RealProtip: HDMI isn't digital, get DVI you can buy em 15 feet long, they use twisted pair tech
 
2012-08-12 06:11:45 PM

MachineHead: One I'm curious about is the VGA adapter. All these new fangled digital connectors have the same issue. A short cable length and high cost. They can have my $5 50 foot Chinese made VGA cable when they pry it out of my cold dead hands.

/it works fine at 1920x1080


VGA actually died in 2010 when the content protection people outlawed analog video playback on new devices.

We are in the grandfathered zombie period, which is expected to last six or seven years.
 
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