sillydragon: pootsie: Has anyone seen Nate Silver's analysis of who would help Romney win the election the most?

One clue: Ryan is not at the top:
[graphics8.nytimes.com image 480x386]

Even though Mr. Portman is not all that well-known and not all that popular with voters back at home - we assume that he'd improve Mr. Romney's position in Ohio by about 1 percentage point - that single point could matter since Ohio is such a disproportionately important state. That extra point in Ohio changed the outcome of the Electoral College in 965 of the 50,000 simulations, or just less than 2 percent of the time.

The fact that Santorum came in dead last on that list warms my heart...

Santorum always ends up in the rear

The thing that sucks about the Obama, Biden, Romney, Ryan macro is Romney and Ryan are essentially equally sucky. The Pain ones worked because of the huge drop-off.

This is Romney getting a teabagger hardliner forced on him by the party, because they (rightfully) don't trust him. The other names that keep being floated, especially by the Romney campaign itself, have been strategic picks to bolster his chances in a particular swing state (Portman, Rubio, McDonnell) or with a particular demographic (various tokens), or to fill in a blank on his resume with foreign policy experience. Most are a combination of two or more of these categories - which is what makes them relatively good picks.

Picking Ryan isn't about winning the election, it's about governing. Romney is looking for an advantage in the election, not a partner for a four year buddy cop movie. Romney is running for president because HE wants to be in charge - it's his turn, after all. He has no interest in sharing that power with anybody else. The talk in the last week or so about Romney picking Ryan wasn't coming from within the Romney campaign, it was the reactionaries voicing their demand: that Romney needed to put one of their own on the ticket in order to earn their trust.

I'd wager that that latest blunder of bringing up Romneycare was the straw that broke Romney's last tiny shred of backbone. The folks bankrolling Romney aren't stupid - greedy, devious, and cunning, maybe, but not stupid - and this is them pushing him in his moment of weakness to play their game.

Just like the Palin pick, this might work the base into a temporary froth, but it doesn't do a damn thing to change the numbers, and that's what Mitt really needs.

Paul Ryan?! I have nothing useful to contribute, other than OMGLOL.

shower_in_my_socks: [img341.imageshack.us image 474x637]

Perfection.

Sabyen91: lyndsayj: So Ryan's dad died at 55; his grandfather at 57; and his great-grandfather at 59 - all of heart attacks. So does that mean he only has another 11 years to live? Great genetics there.

He is only 42.

But, with each generation, his line is dying 2 years younger. He's scheduled to die at 55. 13 years more.

pootsie: Has anyone seen Nate Silver's analysis of who would help Romney win the election the most?

One clue: Ryan is not at the top:

Paul Ryan: Better than a sharp stick in the eye. Barely.

shower_in_my_socks: Sabyen91: lyndsayj: So Ryan's dad died at 55; his grandfather at 57; and his great-grandfather at 59 - all of heart attacks. So does that mean he only has another 11 years to live? Great genetics there.

He is only 42.


This is like an online IQ test. His great-grandfather died at 59. Grandfather died at 57. Dad died at 55. See the descending pattern that leads to Ryan having only 11 years left until he dies at 53?

Sorry, he's scheduled to die at 53 and 11 years was correct. Not enough time to be prez, so he thinks he'll settle.

BigBooper: Bashar and Asma's Infinite Playlist: Wasteland: Wow. I guess a) they're writing off minority vote-pandering as political unobtainium this year, and b) Ryan must've pissed off a few too many GOP decision-makers along the way, if they're hanging him out to dry with Mittens.

After Boehner looked like a moron herding cats after the debt ceiling debacle, spearheaded by Ryan, Ryan kind of went away for a while and restricted himself to relatively noncontroversial anti-Obama sentiments. Maybe the crying orange has more political chops (or a greater thirst for revenge) than we gave him credit for. Ryan was posturing for Boehner's job, and now Ryan is willingly placing his neck in the hangman's noose.

With Ryan, Romney has officially given up on the senior vote. So here's my prediction: Females: 12 point lead for Obama. Seniors: 9 point lead. Minorities 45% lead for Obama. Homosexuals: will Romney even get 1%?

So lets see, what demographic can Romney/Paul actually win? Rich white men.

Gawd, this election could make Mondale's loss against Regan seem like a squeaker in comparison.

You forget working class dolts who truly believe (thanks to rush) their lives are a misery because liberals exist.

shower_in_my_socks: Sabyen91: lyndsayj: So Ryan's dad died at 55; his grandfather at 57; and his great-grandfather at 59 - all of heart attacks. So does that mean he only has another 11 years to live? Great genetics there.

He is only 42.


This is like an online IQ test. His great-grandfather died at 59. Grandfather died at 57. Dad died at 55. See the descending pattern that leads to Ryan having only 11 years left until he dies at 53?

11 years too late.

/Handbasket.

Has anyone noticed that the Romney/Ryan team is a foreign policy powerhouse?

Probably not, because it isn't

For me it's like an online arithmetic test and I suck.

I've not seen a single one of the typical gang I have colored bright red pop up in any of the VP threads tonight.

Either they're as unimpressed with the choice as everyone else or the paid shills only work 8-5.

shower_in_my_socks: Sabyen91: lyndsayj: So Ryan's dad died at 55; his grandfather at 57; and his great-grandfather at 59 - all of heart attacks. So does that mean he only has another 11 years to live? Great genetics there.

He is only 42.


This is like an online IQ test. His great-grandfather died at 59. Grandfather died at 57. Dad died at 55. See the descending pattern that leads to Ryan having only 11 years left until he dies at 53?

It certainly explains why he hates medicare. What's in it for him?

It's weird when someone will volunteer to get on board the modern Titanic.

What's the minimum amount of "no's" that Willard got for his VP choice? 5?

libranoelrose: [pablochiste.files.wordpress.com image 501x478]

What do I win?

tlchwi02: paul ryan... that choice basically means mitt romney has decided the tea party should be in charge. he is, as norquist says, running to be the rubber stamp for a republican/tea party congress.

It's not like MIttens has had the ability to decide anything. The gop campaign has been totally remote-controlled from the Koch mansion since Day One.

Whaa... who? Who are these people? Who is this Ryan?

//great lulz in thread tho

shower_in_my_socks: Sabyen91: lyndsayj: So Ryan's dad died at 55; his grandfather at 57; and his great-grandfather at 59 - all of heart attacks. So does that mean he only has another 11 years to live? Great genetics there.

He is only 42.


This is like an online IQ test. His great-grandfather died at 59. Grandfather died at 57. Dad died at 55. See the descending pattern that leads to Ryan having only 11 years left until he dies at 53?

Yeah, but he does the P90X workout regimen! He'll live forever!! puny mortals!!

/probably be the cause of his heart failure.

the opposite of charity is justice: I've not seen a single one of the typical gang I have colored bright red pop up in any of the VP threads tonight.

Either they're as unimpressed with the choice as everyone else or the paid shills only work 8-5.

Maybe they were outsourced along with the people who maintain the R-money social media platforms.

One genuine upside from this pick, is that the MSM does like Ryan because he's Serious and Wonky about making poor people suffer. So it will probably buy Romney some favorable coverage.

I'm still voting for Romney, I don't care. I'm listening to my conscience. I don't want anything to happen to Betty White. She's a national treasure.

Imagine everything Romney says in Dukat's voice. Now imagine everything Dukat says in Romney's voice. It's eerie how similar they are.

Malicious Bastard: brianbankerus: So wait... this means the end of Ryan in politics, doesn't it?

He's a congressman, so he needs to go up for reelection, but he can't if he's on the presidential ticket, which he'll lose.

In his State, he can run for President or VP and for State office at the same time.
If he gets elected to P/VP, his State position is filled by a special election.

Wait, I don't think this is true. Tammy Baldwin is running for Senate so can't run for the House (unless Pres/VP is different).

geoduck42: One genuine upside from this pick, is that the MSM does like Ryan because he's Serious and Wonky about making poor people suffer. So it will probably buy Romney some favorable coverage.

Huh? I thought the lamestream drive-by gotcha media are in the pocket of the libs.

the opposite of charity is justice: I've not seen a single one of the typical gang I have colored bright red pop up in any of the VP threads tonight.

Either they're as unimpressed with the choice as everyone else or the paid shills only work 8-5.

Interesting - I noticed the same thing.

Paul Baumer: [lh6.googleusercontent.com image 582x720]

Best one yet. My hat is off to you

Does it even matter? I just look forward to seeing Republicans fall over each other to defend the choice.

shower_in_my_socks: A preview of Mitt's big warship-based announcement in the morning:

[desmond.imageshack.us image 500x545]

Anyone got an un-photoshopped version of this?

shower_in_my_socks: A preview of Mitt's big warship-based announcement in the morning:

[desmond.imageshack.us image 500x545]

Hey, do you have the original of that image?

Sabyen91: Wait, I don't think this is true. Tammy Baldwin is running for Senate so can't run for the House (unless Pres/VP is different).

Pres/VP is different.

Paul Baumer: [lh6.googleusercontent.com image 582x720]

Heh, heh, you called Ryan a knob

Except evil, right?

phritz: Sabyen91: Wait, I don't think this is true. Tammy Baldwin is running for Senate so can't run for the House (unless Pres/VP is different).

Pres/VP is different.

Thanks.

ABQGOD: Does it even matter? I just look forward to seeing Republicans fall over each other to defend the choice.

I don't know. The extreme far right is having a hard time hiding their hate for Romney. If they don't like Romney's choice, I can see them throwing their hands in air, saying, "Fark this. I am out."

shower_in_my_socks: A preview of Mitt's big warship-based announcement in the morning:

[desmond.imageshack.us image 500x545]

Do you have the original?

Fluorescent Testicle: [i45.tinypic.com image 356x648]

Is there a generator we can use somewhere, or is this limited to people that have a decent image editor suite?

/suck at Paint

Sabyen91: The only thing Dems should be worried about is turnout in WI and the Dem losing another Senate seat.

Did you see the recall election? Turnout was something like 75%. Walker won, but 'turnout' is not an issue here. Everybody with a pulse is going to the polls already, at least by American standards.

gimmegimme: shower_in_my_socks: A preview of Mitt's big warship-based announcement in the morning:

[desmond.imageshack.us image 500x545]

Hey, do you have the original of that image?

Strolpol: Fluorescent Testicle: [i45.tinypic.com image 356x648]

Is there a generator we can use somewhere, or is this limited to people that have a decent image editor suite?

/suck at Paint

I do mine in powerpoint.

Gosling: Sabyen91: The only thing Dems should be worried about is turnout in WI and the Dem losing another Senate seat.

Did you see the recall election? Turnout was something like 75%. Walker won, but 'turnout' is not an issue here. Everybody with a pulse is going to the polls already, at least by American standards.

I mean certain people turning out. Not total turnout. Ryan might bring more teabaggers out.

Paul Baumer: [lh6.googleusercontent.com image 582x720]

Brilliant.