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(The Atlantic)   Three charts that PROVE Obama will be crushed in the election. Book it, done   (theatlantic.com) divider line 201
    More: Spiffy, obama, Chris Cillizza, making excuses, Real Bad, AEI, personal incomes  
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7765 clicks; posted to Politics » on 07 Aug 2012 at 4:05 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-08-07 05:16:31 PM  
I wish I had photoshop and flash skills, because all I can picture is someone doing the PROMney meme video where his face is shooped into prom photos, but then do the thing where all the pics loop and cycle around the one face like what's-her-name in the vid clip that was done to Eric Pryde's 'Call On Me', only it would be modified to 'Call on Me...Romney', or 'Call on me, R-Money'.

Alternately, someone shooping Romney's face onto a Robot Unicorn, and then making with the obligatory Erasure modification of 'Aaaaaaaaaaaaalways, I wanna be with you, and make believe with you, and vote for R-MONEY R-MONEY OH LAWD'.

/but people would not realize it's a Poe
//and would probably think it's the most awesome thing ever
 
2012-08-07 05:20:44 PM  

nyseattitude: Dear Subby,
I highly advise you stock up on tissues prior to the election. Consider joining reality too mmmkay?
Sincerely yours,

nyseattitude


you should have really considered reading the article first
 
2012-08-07 05:22:51 PM  

rtaylor92: nyseattitude: Dear Subby,
I highly advise you stock up on tissues prior to the election. Consider joining reality too mmmkay?
Sincerely yours,

nyseattitude

you should have really considered reading the article first


Are you new here or something?
 
2012-08-07 05:24:40 PM  

God Is My Co-Pirate: doyner: I'd like to see the chart that shows the correlation of derp to the losing candidate. That's probably the true predictor in this cycle.

Here you go:

[i47.tinypic.com image 339x323]

One of the very funniest segments they've ever done.


As a White Sox fan...I must see this! Link perhaps?
 
2012-08-07 05:26:32 PM  

xanadian: What I got from the last part of TFA was "bubububut Bush!"

And have we *really* only added 100k jobs under Obama? Is that from Jan 2009 up until now? Or from the nadir?


The inertia of Bush's 600,000/month job loss spilled into the first 8 months or so of Obama's tenure, causing losses of 700,000 in January, 600,000 in Feb, and so on, until it turned into positive job growth starting around September of 2009. But those losses were orders of magnitude larger than the growth since then. If you remove those from the calculation, Job growth during Obama's time in office is closer to 4 million or more. If the government weren't starved by the GOP at federal, state and local levels, loss of government workers would be much less (close to 1.2 million so far).
 
2012-08-07 05:29:52 PM  

qorkfiend: Yes, yes. Something will change and everyone will swing towards Romney, despite all recent trends and data


Sure, Romney going to pick a V.P., the most amazing, fantastic V.P. pick he could possibly pick! No, don't ask me who, but when it happens, you'll be surprised how good it is. Then the debates, where Romney will destroy Obama, and prove that he really is not some sort of limp-noodle, milquetoast, flip-flopper, but an actual super-politico! Obama will never see it coming!

Okay, actually, what the Republicans are saying is that, yes, Obama looks like he's going to win, but, God willing, the economy will crater, we'll get a couple of months when we actually lose jobs, there will be a terror attack or natural disaster where thousands are killed, or Iran will detonate a nuke, preferably on Israel, then Obama will be sure to lose!
 
2012-08-07 05:32:49 PM  

MaudlinMutantMollusk: BUT I GOT A CRYSTAL BALL!

/is that a real poncho, or is that a Sears poncho?


You can make more money as a butcher...
 
2012-08-07 05:34:38 PM  

rtaylor92: nyseattitude: Dear Subby,
I highly advise you stock up on tissues prior to the election. Consider joining reality too mmmkay?
Sincerely yours,

nyseattitude

you should have really considered reading the article first


I know. It's almost as though headlines on fark are designed to piss people off.

This must be stopped!
 
2012-08-07 05:41:31 PM  
i50.tinypic.com
 
2012-08-07 06:00:36 PM  

Epoch_Zero: But this still gives me rage face:
These laws are by design flawed and intended to do one thing and one thing only - suppress likely democratic voters.


The dead, felons and illegals are always hit hardest by Rethuglican voter suppression efforts.
 
2012-08-07 06:08:26 PM  
My mother and I have reached a fundamental understanding when it comes to Politics.

We can discuss the facts but any opinions are off the table as it will end in a huge fight.

The other weekend, I was visiting my mother who lives in a very Republican city/township just outside of Philadelphia. Some very nice young Obama supporters came to the house (they were doing an unofficial poll I guess of likely voters) as my mother is a registered Republican.

This is what I heard:

Obama Supporter (OS): Hello, my name is "X (I can't remember it)" I'm a member of the Obama campaign staff and we are going around asking voters if they've made a decision about a candidate in the upcoming election, and if they have not, what issues have prevented them from deciding. May I take a moment of your time?

Mom: Sure, go ahead.

OS: Thank you! Are you registered to vote?

Mom: Yes

OS: If you don't mind, would you like to state to which party?

Mom: I'm registered republican.

OS: Ok, have you decided upon a candidate to vote on this fall?

Mom: Yes I have.

OS: If I may ask, and if you're comfortable telling me, who is your candidate?

Mom: Obama

OS: Really? That's great. If you don't mind me asking, since you are registered Republican, what has made you decide on Obama?

Mom: He is not Romney.

OS: [ laughing ] Ok, thank you. Is there anything else you'd like to hear Obama clarify his position on in order for you to feel better about your voting for him?

Mom: Nope. Not being Romney is more than enough motivation.


End conversation.

She turns around and looks at me and says "and I meant every word of that" This is a woman who has voted Republican in every election she's been eligible for except for the following exceptions:

Bush/Kerry. She went Kerry. She was not better off after 4 years of Bush.

Last Local Mayoral election; our Mayor has been there for over 20 years and my mother really liked the Democrat nominee as they finally drummed up someone who wasn't a complete 'tard.

She voted for McCain against Obama but because she respected McCain. After the election cycle when Palin went full retard she told me "I wish you had lived in PA during that election so you could have canceled my vote"
 
2012-08-07 06:11:47 PM  

TheHopeDiamond: Never underestimate the absolute ignorance of a UAW zombie at the voting booth.


You know, if I had any concern about the election, it's been pretty much allayed by the fact that you guys are already working on your excuses for why you didn't win.
 
2012-08-07 06:31:56 PM  

soy_bomb: Epoch_Zero: But this still gives me rage face:
These laws are by design flawed and intended to do one thing and one thing only - suppress likely democratic voters.

The dead, felons and illegals are always hit hardest by Rethuglican voter suppression efforts.


The dead, felons and illegals don't vote in any significant numbers, you shill.

Students, poor people and minorities, however, do. And the bullshiat voter ID laws are designed to disenfranchise THEM, by making student ID invalid, moving DMV offices away from poorer neighborhoods, and 'accidentally' purging valid voters that have a similar name to a felon/illegal immigrant.

Being afraid of voter fraud is stupid, purely because voter fraud would have to be organized to make any difference in an election. And it's cheaper and less risky to bribe a few election officials than it is to bribe hundreds, if not thousands, of voters to vote fraudulently.
 
2012-08-07 06:32:00 PM  

Lor M. Ipsum: Dusk-You-n-Me: [sas-origin.onstreammedia.com image 577x366]

And Romney gets to stand on a stage and tell America that not only should we do exactly what Bush did, we should go even bigger and favor the rich even more. Yeah. Obama is totally doomed.

The scary thing about that graph is that, in 2009, some people thought the state of the economy was Obama's fault.


They are called Tea Partiers. They are really smart and stuff.
 
2012-08-07 06:37:00 PM  
Link

what kind of thing is that on the x-axis? how do you quantify that?
 
2012-08-07 06:42:16 PM  

Epoch_Zero: Red vs blue is basically rural vs urban, and secondarily coastal vs continental.

Also Afraid vs Not Afraid:


Is that for real?
 
2012-08-07 06:42:33 PM  
There appear to be no charts showing percentage of voters who are terrified of being run by a corporate sponsored dominionist theocracy.
 
2012-08-07 06:46:47 PM  

Bag of Hammers: I've seen all of three Romney stickers (and they're tiny, stick in the corner of your back windshield, tiny.)


Romney... Fark it... Alright... I support him. But not enough to where I'm going to keep this on my car after the election. I don't want to have to peel this off.
 
2012-08-07 06:57:15 PM  

Dougie AXP: My mother and I have reached a fundamental understanding when it comes to Politics.

We can discuss the facts but any opinions are off the table as it will end in a huge fight.

The other weekend, I was visiting my mother who lives in a very Republican city/township just outside of Philadelphia. Some very nice young Obama supporters came to the house (they were doing an unofficial poll I guess of likely voters) as my mother is a registered Republican.

This is what I heard:

Obama Supporter (OS): Hello, my name is "X (I can't remember it)" I'm a member of the Obama campaign staff and we are going around asking voters if they've made a decision about a candidate in the upcoming election, and if they have not, what issues have prevented them from deciding. May I take a moment of your time?

Mom: Sure, go ahead.

OS: Thank you! Are you registered to vote?

Mom: Yes

OS: If you don't mind, would you like to state to which party?

Mom: I'm registered republican.

OS: Ok, have you decided upon a candidate to vote on this fall?

Mom: Yes I have.

OS: If I may ask, and if you're comfortable telling me, who is your candidate?

Mom: Obama

OS: Really? That's great. If you don't mind me asking, since you are registered Republican, what has made you decide on Obama?

Mom: He is not Romney.

OS: [ laughing ] Ok, thank you. Is there anything else you'd like to hear Obama clarify his position on in order for you to feel better about your voting for him?

Mom: Nope. Not being Romney is more than enough motivation.


End conversation.

She turns around and looks at me and says "and I meant every word of that" This is a woman who has voted Republican in every election she's been eligible for except for the following exceptions:

Bush/Kerry. She went Kerry. She was not better off after 4 years of Bush.

Last Local Mayoral election; our Mayor has been there for over 20 years and my mother really liked the Democrat nominee as they finally drummed up someone who wasn't a complete 'tard.
...


My Dad is a tea party supporting, Rush Limbaugh listening farking moron when it comes to politics.

:(

Yes, I am jealous.
 
2012-08-07 07:00:58 PM  

Dusk-You-n-Me: [sas-origin.onstreammedia.com image 577x366]

And Romney gets to stand on a stage and tell America that not only should we do exactly what Bush did, we should go even bigger and favor the rich even more. Yeah. Obama is totally doomed.


But Rmoney isn't saying, "Let's try the Bush Jr. method again." He's simply copying and pasting the strategy.

You have way more faith in people than I do if you think the average voter is going to make the connection on their own. You have way more faith in people than I do if you think the average voter will believe the connection after someone makes it.

We've known this was Rmoney's strategy for months now and it's done very little to change those supporting the Rmoney campaign.

/I still think Obama will win.
 
2012-08-07 07:02:16 PM  

downstairs: I think you're forgetting he's running against Romney.


This!
 
2012-08-07 07:04:48 PM  

Dusk-You-n-Me: xanadian: Granted, Obama is "leading" in a lot of the polls, but, considering all this, you'd think he'd be TROUNCING R'Money in the polls.

I wouldn't think that, because the debates haven't happened yet. But they will, and Obama will.


I would love to see the look on Republican faces as they exit the venue. They're convinced that President Obama is a bumbling idiot that cannot function without a teleprompter. This is going to be so awesome.
 
2012-08-07 07:06:54 PM  

xanadian: Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: xanadian: So, nationally, Obama barely leads, but state-by-state, Obama leads by a lot where it counts.

Right. The joys of the electoral college.

Still a bit uncomfortable...538 predicts he might lose a couple states he had in 2008. Guess that still makes it doable.

Yeah, Imma wait until the debates to see what happens.


This is what I don't get.

I acknowledge that people may not like him but to think that R-money is more apt to be President? And that sentiment is on such a large scale that he loses states. It's baffling.
 
2012-08-07 07:07:21 PM  

TheHopeDiamond: Never underestimate the absolute ignorance of a UAW zombie at the voting booth.


Those zombies make your guns.
 
2012-08-07 07:14:49 PM  

Coco LaFemme: I normally don't call elections before the conventions even happen, but I truly believe the only way Obama is losing this election is if he drops out, or is photographed in the dead girl/live boy scenario. Otherwise, I can't see how Romney beats him, either in popularity or in what actually matters, policy. I just can't see it. He'll get the standard % of votes that goes to the GOP candidate, but I can't see him leeching that many votes from the moderates/centrists/Independents pool that he'd need to in order to win.


Even if Obama does win (I think he will)- I'm concerned that the split will be pretty damn close. There's no good reason - none - as to why Rmoney is polling where he's at. The man is a joke.
 
2012-08-07 07:20:20 PM  

NateGrey: Tarl3k: I can't find a copy of the picture using the google image searcher, mainly because I can't remember what the id was of the retard who posted it (PhilHerup?). Somebody needs to post the picture of the quote from 2008, something along the lines of "Reasons why McCain will win:"
1) Bradley effect
2) Hillary voters
3) Statisticals

Something like that, I can't remember anymore...that image basically sums up the Republicans (and the media) right now, grasping at straws to try and make people think that the presidential race is actually going to be close...

I got this:

[www.madmann.com image 750x600]


OH MY GOD. I forgot all about this one.
Thank you!
 
2012-08-07 07:23:32 PM  

Uchiha_Cycliste: ahhhhh, that's the stuff
[img189.imageshack.us image 466x272]


A true classic. And still funny after having seen it 500 times.

Epoch_Zero: [cdn.uproxx.com image 640x427]


That is also epic.
 
2012-08-07 07:26:17 PM  

NateGrey: This might make things interesting:

Has Romney picked Gen David Petraeus to be his vice president? Report says Obama was overheard saying Mitt wants war hero as running mate


I don't see Patraeus accepting. If given the opportunity, I would hope that Patraeus would suggest McChrystal for the lulz.
 
2012-08-07 07:27:57 PM  

Alphax: Yeah, I'm not worried about Romney winning anything. He's terrible at everything.

I'm more worried about the Republicans running for office here in Missouri trying to imitate the Brownbacks in Kansas.


If I thought that the GOP were successfully strategic, I'd say that this was intentional: running an obviously inadequate candidate for president in order to mask their agenda.
 
2012-08-07 07:35:54 PM  

Bontesla: NateGrey: This might make things interesting:

Has Romney picked Gen David Petraeus to be his vice president? Report says Obama was overheard saying Mitt wants war hero as running mate

I don't see Patraeus accepting. If given the opportunity, I would hope that Patraeus would suggest McChrystal for the lulz.


While Patraeus and Obama don't love each other, there's no evidence that Patraeus is a Republican.
 
2012-08-07 07:39:25 PM  

The Jami Turman Fan Club: While Patraeus and Obama don't love each other, there's no evidence that Patraeus is a Republican.


Petraeus doesn't seem to be a tard, for one.
 
2012-08-07 07:50:38 PM  
It's important to be clear about what these charts tell us and what they don't tell us. They do tell us that Obama's total jobs record is pathetic compared to much of the 20th century. They do tell us that real personal income growth under this president, the most prescient statistic for incumbents, has tracked much closer to past losers than past winners.

But they don't tell us anything about the mind of today's voter, and they don't give us much insight into how voters make decisions.


Remembering that Obama was elected on effectively nothing but promises, it does not mean much what the actual facts are. Without assigning blame, anyone who thinks Obama has made the economy significantly better is choosing to wear rose colored glasses. But that simply may not matter. Few voters crunch the numbers on their way to the voting booth.

This will boil down to one question: Which person do voters think cab fix the economy? While no one can really argue that Obama's term has been an econimic success story, it has not been a further downward spiral either. Until and unless Romney can convince unnafiliated voters that he knows something that Obama doesn't (and that he has a NEW idea), voters don't have a compelling reason to give him a chance.

Right now, Romney is trying to convince the public that Obama is leading us down a road to ruin, but so far Obama has only led us along a path of stagnation. Neither very much better nor very much worse from when he came inot office. Neither Romney nor Obama have articluated a convincing plan toward economic prosperity. Obama's efforts to tax the rich won;t fix the economy, and Romney's vague "I know how to run a business" are both substitutes for any real game plan.

With both candidates being equally ambiguously likely to 'turn the country around', the incumbant usually wins.
 
2012-08-07 07:58:46 PM  

xanadian: cameroncrazy1984: xanadian: Granted, Obama is "leading" in a lot of the polls, but, considering all this, you'd think he'd be TROUNCING R'Money in the polls. And then there's the issue of what "likely voters" will do come November.

According to the 538 chart, he IS trouncing Rmoney.

So, nationally, Obama barely leads, but state-by-state, Obama leads by a lot where it counts.


Is that not absolutely sad? 49% to barely sub 50% of americans seriously are going to vote for Romney even though he is obviously not presidential material. No wonder florida says an IQ of 70 is to high to be the starting point for retardation.
 
2012-08-07 08:02:34 PM  

FloydA: [i105.photobucket.com image 374x596]


Thanks for posting those... last time I check the percentage was at 68% (now 72%), but that was before Romney's International Whirlwind o' Gaffes Tour... and now you can see his line dropping over the last 2 weeks.

/heh
 
2012-08-07 08:14:51 PM  

BojanglesPaladin: It's important to be clear about what these charts tell us and what they don't tell us. They do tell us that Obama's total jobs record is pathetic compared to much of the 20th century. They do tell us that real personal income growth under this president, the most prescient statistic for incumbents, has tracked much closer to past losers than past winners.

But they don't tell us anything about the mind of today's voter, and they don't give us much insight into how voters make decisions.

Remembering that Obama was elected on effectively nothing but promises, it does not mean much what the actual facts are. Without assigning blame, anyone who thinks Obama has made the economy significantly better is choosing to wear rose colored glasses. But that simply may not matter. Few voters crunch the numbers on their way to the voting booth.

This will boil down to one question: Which person do voters think cab fix the economy? While no one can really argue that Obama's term has been an econimic success story, it has not been a further downward spiral either. Until and unless Romney can convince unnafiliated voters that he knows something that Obama doesn't (and that he has a NEW idea), voters don't have a compelling reason to give him a chance.

Right now, Romney is trying to convince the public that Obama is leading us down a road to ruin, but so far Obama has only led us along a path of stagnation. Neither very much better nor very much worse from when he came inot office. Neither Romney nor Obama have articluated a convincing plan toward economic prosperity. Obama's efforts to tax the rich won;t fix the economy, and Romney's vague "I know how to run a business" are both substitutes for any real game plan.

With both candidates being equally ambiguously likely to 'turn the country around', the incumbant usually wins.


Some us think Obama's proposed legislation/spending to increase jobs would accelerate the recovery and moderate taxes increases to the rich , although not solving much would certainly be fair an would help contain the deficit a little.

In Canada (a country 1/10th the economy) we put $100B into new infrastructure spending and no one crapped their pants and our recession was mild compared to you. Now we are in position to balance the budget by 2017.

The size of the US recession called for $2T to $3T in outright spending on things like infrastructure but Obama could only get about a small fraction of that with most in more tax cuts which don't nearly do enough in terms of job creation. Obama's only failure if anything was not being able to biatch handle the GOP.
 
2012-08-07 08:32:34 PM  

You Cant Explain That: Dougie AXP: My mother and I have reached a fundamental understanding when it comes to Politics.

We can discuss the facts but any opinions are off the table as it will end in a huge fight.

The other weekend, I was visiting my mother who lives in a very Republican city/township just outside of Philadelphia. Some very nice young Obama supporters came to the house (they were doing an unofficial poll I guess of likely voters) as my mother is a registered Republican.

This is what I heard:

Obama Supporter (OS): Hello, my name is "X (I can't remember it)" I'm a member of the Obama campaign staff and we are going around asking voters if they've made a decision about a candidate in the upcoming election, and if they have not, what issues have prevented them from deciding. May I take a moment of your time?

Mom: Sure, go ahead.

OS: Thank you! Are you registered to vote?

Mom: Yes

OS: If you don't mind, would you like to state to which party?

Mom: I'm registered republican.

OS: Ok, have you decided upon a candidate to vote on this fall?

Mom: Yes I have.

OS: If I may ask, and if you're comfortable telling me, who is your candidate?

Mom: Obama

OS: Really? That's great. If you don't mind me asking, since you are registered Republican, what has made you decide on Obama?

Mom: He is not Romney.

OS: [ laughing ] Ok, thank you. Is there anything else you'd like to hear Obama clarify his position on in order for you to feel better about your voting for him?

Mom: Nope. Not being Romney is more than enough motivation.


End conversation.

She turns around and looks at me and says "and I meant every word of that" This is a woman who has voted Republican in every election she's been eligible for except for the following exceptions:

Bush/Kerry. She went Kerry. She was not better off after 4 years of Bush.

Last Local Mayoral election; our Mayor has been there for over 20 years and my mother really liked the Democrat nominee as they finally drummed up someone who wasn't a comp ...


I give my mom credit. She has grown and come along more and more in recent years. She was watching the news with me one night and she saw something that Chris Christie said and she shook her head and said "sad, I thought he was refreshing, he's just as vindictive as the rest" then she saw a recap story bout what Cory Booker has been doing in Newark and said "that man should run for president"

I said "careful Mom, you're getting libby in your old age"

and she said "ever since Dubya, they've gone off the rails"
 
2012-08-07 09:01:32 PM  

Epoch_Zero: MisterRonbo: I'd love to see that jobs chart limited to private sector jobs: first, because Reagan and Bush 43 hugely expanded government payrolls, and second because under Obama government payrolls at state and local lelvel have shrunk.

Somehow I think if you focused on private sector, which is where the test of policy creating jobs really occurs, it would look different.

And for all of the two termers, count only the first term.

Well as long as we're arbitrarily suggesting parameters:
- jobs created only on Tuesdays
- While jumping
- that happen to be the birthday of albino rattlesnakes
- in Idaho.

Then you'll have your real numbers. I mean, I don't know why both of them are still even in the race. It's clear they are going to lose with these numbers.


Right, because comparing a President who has only served one term to the job creation records of Bush 43 or Reagan or Clinton, who had twice as long, is apples and apples. Comparing the first four years of Obama to the first four years of the others is silly.

Oh, and its only fair to subtract from Obama's record all of the jobs cut from state and local government, thanks to plunging tax revenues due to the recession started by..oh, you know... I mean, why try to compare how the economy and jobs are affected by a President's policies by comparing the private sector, which conservatives keep telling us is the only place that counts.

Do you hear yourself? Do you even know how stupid you sound?
 
2012-08-07 09:17:14 PM  

theorellior: Nobody lives there. It's basically a vast swatch of empty land, punctuated by Jesus radio and AM nutballs.


I am in the middle of that big red mass right now on a giant road trip.

You ain't kidding about Jesus radio and AM nutballs. Except Wyoming. For some reason there was a ton of great classic rock all through Wyoming. "Love Rain O'er Me" cranked on the radio while driving 120 kph into a thunderstorm is excellent.

/big fan of 75 mph speed limits
 
2012-08-07 09:32:13 PM  
Sigh. This thread makes me miss the fark conservatives and trolls.
Gary and Phil, you are missed.
 
2012-08-07 09:44:25 PM  

God-is-a-Taco: Sigh. This thread makes me miss the fark conservatives and trolls.
Gary and Phil, you are missed.


a4.ec-images.myspacecdn.com
 
2012-08-07 09:53:08 PM  
I've said this before but I'll say it again:

1. Obama did not have a significant primary challenge
2. There have been exactly six incumbent presidents who lost re-election without having a significant primary challenge (Adams 1, Adams 2, Van Buren, Cleveland, Harrison, Hoover)
3. The last of those was 80 years ago


People really underestimate how hard it is to unseat an incumbent president. Screw your economic models, I'm going with history.
 
2012-08-07 10:21:26 PM  

Epoch_Zero: theorellior: Renart: If you look at a county-by-county or precinct-by-precinct U.S. map, it starts to make more sense. Most cities, as well as areas with non-white populations and/or universities, go for the Democrats, even in "red" states. But in a lot of the red states, the rural population outnumbers the urban/minority/educated populations.

Red vs blue is basically rural vs urban, and secondarily coastal vs continental.

Also Afraid vs Not Afraid:
[graphjam.files.wordpress.com image 500x900]


Curious, why Washington state, is it because of stupid terrorist thinking they were heading for DC?
 
2012-08-07 10:24:56 PM  

Orange Rhyming Dictionary: God Is My Co-Pirate: doyner: I'd like to see the chart that shows the correlation of derp to the losing candidate. That's probably the true predictor in this cycle.

Here you go:

[i47.tinypic.com image 339x323]

One of the very funniest segments they've ever done.

As a White Sox fan...I must see this! Link perhaps?


I can't find one that works where I am, but if you're in the States you might use this one: Link

I got to "tiger-petters" and just about fell off the sofa I was laughing so hard.
 
2012-08-07 11:49:52 PM  

DamnYankees: GAT_00: It at least puts it within the MOE for Obama, which is surprising. If NC is possible, he's in good shape. There's no way Obama wins NC and loses the country.

Obama has been within the margin in NC in basically every poll, other than Rasmussen. It's always been in contention.


As someone very familiar with the sitch here in NC (can't say much), North Carolina is without a doubt in play for Obama to keep blue. It's likely gonna be very close again, though.
 
2012-08-07 11:57:32 PM  

dennysgod: Epoch_Zero: theorellior: Renart: If you look at a county-by-county or precinct-by-precinct U.S. map, it starts to make more sense. Most cities, as well as areas with non-white populations and/or universities, go for the Democrats, even in "red" states. But in a lot of the red states, the rural population outnumbers the urban/minority/educated populations.

Red vs blue is basically rural vs urban, and secondarily coastal vs continental.

Also Afraid vs Not Afraid:
[graphjam.files.wordpress.com image 500x900]

Curious, why Washington state, is it because of stupid terrorist thinking they were heading for DC?


Boeing, Microsoft, JBLM, NS Kitsap, NSB Bangor, PSNS, Keyport NUWC and several others...

I could go on, if you wish.

If the strategic resources that are based in Washington state were independent of the US, Washington state would be considered a superpower. There is more absolute firepower within 40 miles of Seattle than there is in all of Europe and Asia combined. If you exclude Virginia and Montana, you can add all of North America to that list.

Every night, when you go to sleep, remember that you are safe because of Washington state. We're covering for you. It's what we do. We're generous like that.
 
2012-08-08 12:42:05 AM  
What kind of metric is 'Real income growth and mitary fatalities combined"? Not only do they not share a Imeasurement unit, their positive axes don't even point in the same direction.

If you're going to go to this much effort cherry-picking, at least drop one into a Rob Roy for me.
 
2012-08-08 12:43:02 AM  
These polls also ignore the sad fact, that Obama is running against a Quantum Political Superposition, as opposed to just a simple windsock. At this point, Romney is contradicting himself in the SAME speech and continuing on as if no one has a memory minutes after he speaks words.

If the Democrats are smart, they'll simply let Mittens continue speaking, and just keep replaying his own words. Mitt is his own worst enemy, and not even Governor Romney, but 4 Minutes Ago Romney...
 
2012-08-08 03:29:41 AM  

thamike: God-is-a-Taco: Sigh. This thread makes me miss the fark conservatives and trolls.
Gary and Phil, you are missed.

[a4.ec-images.myspacecdn.com image 600x374]


I gotta say, that is pretty damn funny.

/dont miss philtard. Was one of the first onmy ignore list
 
2012-08-08 08:22:20 AM  

WombatControl: I love how the headline utterly misses TFA's point.

Yes, Romney has to win a majority of the swing states. If Romney loses OH, it's pretty much over for him. Likewise, if PA goes Romney, Obama's probably going to lose in a blowout. I'd give the chances of PA flipping to the GOP as being vanishingly small right now, but it's still possible.

The problem with all of this is that we're extrapolating based on a very small set of samples. Nate Silver had an interesting observation at 538 that we're getting a lot fewer polls now than we did in 2008, which makes it harder to see how the trends are working out. So we assume based on a few polls that Obama is pulling away in Ohio - but some of those polls assume big shifts in the composition of the electorate. Now, maybe Ohio is becoming a Democratic state, but we just don't have the data to make that conclusion.

Saying based on state-level polling in early August that one candidate or another is going to win is pretty silly - especially because we have such fragmentary polling. If these trends continue into September, then Romney's chances are pretty damn slim, but all the triumphalism from the Obama cheering section is more than a little premature - especially when you have those economic figures influencing people's lives and political attitudes.

It's perfectly fair to say that Obama's ahead right now, and by a decent margin. But that doesn't have much bearing on whether the same will be true in November.


That's true - but it can also be said that the clock is ticking at this point. The election is less than 90 days away - and the chain of events necessary to weaken Obama substantially becomes more complex and less probable with every day that passes. And there isn't too much business in front of the House that the GOP can use to try to torpedo the economy. So yeah, anything CAN happen - but the clock is ticking, and the probability that something WILL happen is rapidly dwindling.
it will be amusing to see the desperation tactics become even more spittle-flecked and insane than they already are.
 
2012-08-08 11:58:24 AM  

MaudlinMutantMollusk: BUT I GOT A CRYSTAL BALL!

/is that a real poncho, or is that a Sears poncho?


Look here brother. Who you jivin with that cosmic debris?
 
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