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(The Hill)   While it seems like the election will be close, the swing states tell a different story   (thehill.com) divider line 170
    More: Interesting, President Obama, swing states, Mark McKinnon, swing vote, economic statistics, electoral college, presidential debates  
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7483 clicks; posted to Politics » on 30 Jul 2012 at 2:37 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-07-30 01:04:01 PM
Obama will only give back Indiana, North Carolina, Omaha, and possibly Florida. If Florida goes to Romney, Obama still has 303 electoral votes. If Florida goes to Obama, he has 332 EVs. Any mention of how close the horserace is, is not news it is fark.
 
2012-07-30 01:24:50 PM
Even if it words in his favor, I still think its psychotic that we live in a system where someone can get more votes and lose.
 
2012-07-30 02:29:00 PM

Kevin72: Obama will only give back Indiana, North Carolina, Omaha, and possibly Florida. If Florida goes to Romney, Obama still has 303 electoral votes. If Florida goes to Obama, he has 332 EVs. Any mention of how close the horserace is, is not news it is fark.


I'm not sure what you mean by Omaha, but another Democrat-leaning state that Obama could lose is Virginia. In fact he has a better chance of winning OH, IA, CO, NV than he does VA, as it stands. So 13 more electoral votes for Romney, and it's still 290 for Obama.

There's obviously a lot more campaigning ahead, VP pick, debates, etc., but right now one could say that Obama has a rather comfortable lead, actually.
 
2012-07-30 02:38:50 PM

DamnYankees: Even if it words in his favor, I still think its psychotic that we live in a system where someone can get more votes and lose.


What are you talking about? 5 is always more than 4.
 
2012-07-30 02:39:43 PM
in b4 WombatControl
 
2012-07-30 02:40:05 PM

DeltaPunch: I'm not sure what you mean by Omaha


He's referring to Nebraska splitting its electoral votes. In 2008, Obama became the first Democrat in 44 years to win one of Nebraska's votes.
 
2012-07-30 02:40:30 PM
Romney will pick rubio despite rubio saying time and again he doesnt want to be veep.
 
2012-07-30 02:41:37 PM
So you're saying there's a chance?

www.jeremyrhammond.com
 
2012-07-30 02:42:12 PM

Ayn Rand's Cervix: Romney will pick rubio despite rubio saying time and again he doesnt want to be veep.


It's a barefaced lie. Being picked for VP would be a huge boost to Rubio, politically and personally.
 
2012-07-30 02:45:11 PM
No, the election is NOT close! Obama will win. RoMONEY is far too slimy even for some republicans to tolerate.
 
2012-07-30 02:45:38 PM

DeltaPunch: Kevin72: Obama will only give back Indiana, North Carolina, Omaha, and possibly Florida. If Florida goes to Romney, Obama still has 303 electoral votes. If Florida goes to Obama, he has 332 EVs. Any mention of how close the horserace is, is not news it is fark.

I'm not sure what you mean by Omaha, but another Democrat-leaning state that Obama could lose is Virginia. In fact he has a better chance of winning OH, IA, CO, NV than he does VA, as it stands. So 13 more electoral votes for Romney, and it's still 290 for Obama.

There's obviously a lot more campaigning ahead, VP pick, debates, etc., but right now one could say that Obama has a rather comfortable lead, actually.


Obama basically can't lose va, largely thanks to hometown hero Virgil Goode who is running on the Constitution Party ticket. He's only polling about 10% even in Va but about 90% of that comes out of Romney's vote. Meaning that while Obama is only ahead by about 5-8% in most polls they are all head to head matchups. Factor Goode in and Obama's ahead by 13-16%
 
2012-07-30 02:46:05 PM
It only "seems like the election will be close" to a media who profits from pushing the narrative of a horse race, and the people who desperately want it to be true...
 
2012-07-30 02:46:42 PM

Magorn: DeltaPunch: Kevin72: Obama will only give back Indiana, North Carolina, Omaha, and possibly Florida. If Florida goes to Romney, Obama still has 303 electoral votes. If Florida goes to Obama, he has 332 EVs. Any mention of how close the horserace is, is not news it is fark.

I'm not sure what you mean by Omaha, but another Democrat-leaning state that Obama could lose is Virginia. In fact he has a better chance of winning OH, IA, CO, NV than he does VA, as it stands. So 13 more electoral votes for Romney, and it's still 290 for Obama.

There's obviously a lot more campaigning ahead, VP pick, debates, etc., but right now one could say that Obama has a rather comfortable lead, actually.

Obama basically can't lose va, largely thanks to hometown hero Virgil Goode who is running on the Constitution Party ticket. He's only polling about 10% even in Va but about 90% of that comes out of Romney's vote. Meaning that while Obama is only ahead by about 5-8% in most polls they are all head to head matchups. Factor Goode in and Obama's ahead by 13-16%


This could change, though, if Romney picks McDonnell as VP. He's still fairly popular in VA.
 
2012-07-30 02:48:21 PM

DamnYankees: Even if it words in his favor, I still think its psychotic that we live in a system where someone can get more votes and lose.



That's the case in almost every Western democracy. Most places don't have systems as ridiculous as "electoral votes", but they have either a parliamentary election system (were people are voting for individual members for their area, not an overall leader, which results in a similar upturn of the total vote vs who actually won in individual constituencies) or proportional representation systems (where a winner can be based on the second, third, fourth or fifth choices - which means that the person with the most "first" votes doesn't win) or both.


There's no system I know of in a 2012 democratic country of more than a few hundred people that total popular vote equals winner. I'm not sure that there's such a system that could possibly work.
 
2012-07-30 02:48:34 PM
Romney brings nothing to the party in the form of an actual platform other than flip-flopping on nearly every statement, blaming the black man for the economy without stating even minor plans to improve it, and the current penis goes where obsessed GOP platform. Oh and tax the poor, glutton the rich, and preserve the DoD budget. For some reason "conservatives" still think they have a chance.
 
2012-07-30 02:48:58 PM

DamnYankees: Even if it words in his favor, I still think its psychotic that we live in a system where someone can get more votes and lose.


Letting Texas decide the fate of the rest of the country isn't any kind of democracy I'd like to live in.

We've always been a representative republic and we're better for it.
 
2012-07-30 02:49:02 PM
Mitt has to flip NC, FL, OH, CO, NV, VA, IA and IN from blue back to red in order to win. He has to get all of those except one, and that "one" can't be FL.

So far he's polling decently in VA and IN which will probably go back to red and there's variability in IA and NC, both of which are still leaning towards Obama at this point. OH, CO, NV are all polling safe (D) and Florida is leaning towards Obama.

In other words -- it ain't very farkin' likely that Mitt is going to win this election unless Obama eats a live baby on TV in the next 90 days.

(culled info from electoral-vote.com, fivethirtyeight.com and core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard)
 
2012-07-30 02:49:16 PM
Saying that "this election will be close" is nothing more than an attempt to psyche out potential Obama voters.

Good job, you've already got plenty liberals scared that Robot McEmpty Suit is going to run the country this November.

People really should just turn off their TVs for a couple of months.
 
2012-07-30 02:49:44 PM

Kevin72: Obama will only give back Indiana, North Carolina, Omaha, and possibly Florida. If Florida goes to Romney, Obama still has 303 electoral votes. If Florida goes to Obama, he has 332 EVs. Any mention of how close the horserace is, is not news it is fark.


unless this happens...
 
2012-07-30 02:50:12 PM
You know what really gives Obama the edge?

Not being Mitt Romney.
 
2012-07-30 02:51:32 PM
I see the daily talking point has been distributed and fully embraced...

Yes, as of this moment Obama is ahead in the swing states (except for Missouri and Indiana, which are basically lost causes to Obama unless circumstances change). And the Romney team had better be thinking of ways to improve their standing in Ohio, or Romney's chances of winning go down to just about zero.

But again, the assumption that state-level polling in late July matters a hell of a lot as a predictor is just false. You have 1.) fewer polls and 2.) less accurate samples this far out.

If in September Romney is still behind by more than 1-2 points in the swing states, it's probably going to be an Obama win. But if the electoral map changes (and it will), then the predictions will change accordingly.

So yeah, crow all you want about how the fact that Obama is ahead in the swing states now means that Obama is totally going to win. Never mind the fact that Romney's campaign can't even spend general election funds for another six weeks, it's totally in the bag for Obama and everyone should just go home. The Obama Cheerleading Brigade® said it was so.
 
2012-07-30 02:52:18 PM
If you are an Obama supporter and you think he is going to win by a landslide, please go and still vote for him. Don't stay at home thinking that 'I don't have to go since it is in the bag'...

PA is actively trying to suppress a certain group of people from voting.
 
2012-07-30 02:53:05 PM

qorkfiend: This could change, though, if Romney picks McDonnell as VP. He's still fairly popular in VA.


Obama vs Romney: 50-42
Obama vs Romney + McDonnell: 50-43

Link
 
2012-07-30 02:53:20 PM
SWiNG VOtAR SWwWING VOTaR SWwWWWWwWING VoTAR!!!
 
2012-07-30 02:53:33 PM

one of Ripley's Bad Guys: Kevin72: Obama will only give back Indiana, North Carolina, Omaha, and possibly Florida. If Florida goes to Romney, Obama still has 303 electoral votes. If Florida goes to Obama, he has 332 EVs. Any mention of how close the horserace is, is not news it is fark.

unless this happens...


Romney isn't even contesting PA at this point. That statement was simply wishful thinking, not based on any real analysis
 
2012-07-30 02:53:42 PM
Fark Cons have it on better authority, polls and statistics are for stupid libs, a Cons gut is the true indicator of how an entire nation is feeling.

/Vote Republican
 
2012-07-30 02:54:08 PM

Ayn Rand's Cervix: Romney will pick rubio despite rubio saying time and again he doesnt want to be veep.


Because if there is one group of people that the Hispanic population in the US is in love with, it is the Cubans. They might also have trouble within the party with Rubio's 'anchor baby' status too. Once you throw in the fact that he is almost as dumb as Palin you will start to see why Romney won't pick him.

/it's gonna be another boring white guy
 
2012-07-30 02:55:02 PM
FTFcomments:

American
obozo's college records? Too stupid to pass the finals? Foreign born student? What's obozo hiding????
 
2012-07-30 02:55:05 PM

madgonad: Ayn Rand's Cervix: Romney will pick rubio despite rubio saying time and again he doesnt want to be veep.

Because if there is one group of people that the Hispanic population in the US is in love with, it is the Cubans. They might also have trouble within the party with Rubio's 'anchor baby' status too. Once you throw in the fact that he is almost as dumb as Palin you will start to see why Romney won't pick him.

/it's gonna be another boring white guy


My money is on McCuckold from Indiana
 
2012-07-30 02:55:45 PM

hugram: If you are an Obama supporter and you think he is going to win by a landslide, please go and still vote for him. Don't stay at home thinking that 'I don't have to go since it is in the bag'...

PA is actively trying to suppress a certain group of people from voting.


Florida is as well.

Vote people. As much as I think it's Obama's race to lose this time (by a fair margin) that lead is diminished by people thinking their vote isn't needed. Its not in the bag until the actual election is tallied.
 
2012-07-30 02:55:59 PM
The election is only close if you're a journalist or insane. Romney is going to get splattered.
 
2012-07-30 02:56:18 PM

WombatControl: I see the daily talking point has been distributed and fully embraced...

Yes, as of this moment Obama is ahead in the swing states (except for Missouri and Indiana, which are basically lost causes to Obama unless circumstances change). And the Romney team had better be thinking of ways to improve their standing in Ohio, or Romney's chances of winning go down to just about zero.

But again, the assumption that state-level polling in late July matters a hell of a lot as a predictor is just false. You have 1.) fewer polls and 2.) less accurate samples this far out.

If in September Romney is still behind by more than 1-2 points in the swing states, it's probably going to be an Obama win. But if the electoral map changes (and it will), then the predictions will change accordingly.

So yeah, crow all you want about how the fact that Obama is ahead in the swing states now means that Obama is totally going to win. Never mind the fact that Romney's campaign can't even spend general election funds for another six weeks, it's totally in the bag for Obama and everyone should just go home. The Obama Cheerleading Brigade® said it was so.


This case looks serious; someone call the waaahmbulance.
 
2012-07-30 02:56:20 PM

madgonad: Ayn Rand's Cervix: Romney will pick rubio despite rubio saying time and again he doesnt want to be veep.

Because if there is one group of people that the Hispanic population in the US is in love with, it is the Cubans. They might also have trouble within the party with Rubio's 'anchor baby' status too. Once you throw in the fact that he is almost as dumb as Palin you will start to see why Romney won't pick him.

/it's gonna be another boring white guy


Fair enough. I wouldnt bet any money on rubio, i would on 'boring white guy'. That is how certain I am about Rubio
 
2012-07-30 02:58:29 PM

Lost Thought 00: one of Ripley's Bad Guys: Kevin72: Obama will only give back Indiana, North Carolina, Omaha, and possibly Florida. If Florida goes to Romney, Obama still has 303 electoral votes. If Florida goes to Obama, he has 332 EVs. Any mention of how close the horserace is, is not news it is fark.

unless this happens...

Romney isn't even contesting PA at this point. That statement was simply wishful thinking, not based on any real analysis


After the 2000 "election" I have a dim view of our country's method of tallying votes.
 
2012-07-30 02:58:29 PM

madgonad: Ayn Rand's Cervix: Romney will pick rubio despite rubio saying time and again he doesnt want to be veep.

Because if there is one group of people that the Hispanic population in the US is in love with, it is the Cubans. They might also have trouble within the party with Rubio's 'anchor baby' status too. Once you throw in the fact that he is almost as dumb as Palin you will start to see why Romney won't pick him.

/it's gonna be another boring white guy


Yup. People who keep pounding Rubio drum and talking about him netting the "Hispanic" vote don't understand that culture very much. It takes more than a nice complexion and being from "one of those countries," to get votes, just like with other demographics.
 
2012-07-30 02:59:14 PM

one of Ripley's Bad Guys: Lost Thought 00: one of Ripley's Bad Guys: Kevin72: Obama will only give back Indiana, North Carolina, Omaha, and possibly Florida. If Florida goes to Romney, Obama still has 303 electoral votes. If Florida goes to Obama, he has 332 EVs. Any mention of how close the horserace is, is not news it is fark.

unless this happens...

Romney isn't even contesting PA at this point. That statement was simply wishful thinking, not based on any real analysis

After the 2000 "election" I have a dim view of our country's method of tallying votes.


Probably because the country doesn't have a unified method of counting votes. All elections are done at the state level.
 
2012-07-30 02:59:24 PM

Bungles: DamnYankees: Even if it words in his favor, I still think its psychotic that we live in a system where someone can get more votes and lose.


That's the case in almost every Western democracy. Most places don't have systems as ridiculous as "electoral votes", but they have either a parliamentary election system (were people are voting for individual members for their area, not an overall leader, which results in a similar upturn of the total vote vs who actually won in individual constituencies) or proportional representation systems (where a winner can be based on the second, third, fourth or fifth choices - which means that the person with the most "first" votes doesn't win) or both.


There's no system I know of in a 2012 democratic country of more than a few hundred people that total popular vote equals winner. I'm not sure that there's such a system that could possibly work.


AV and Instant Run-Off systems come pretty close. IIRC France and Australia use them at various levels of national elections.
 
2012-07-30 03:02:52 PM

Bill_Wick's_Friend: Mitt has to flip NC, FL, OH, CO, NV, VA, IA and IN from blue back to red in order to win. He has to get all of those except one, and that "one" can't be FL.

So far he's polling decently in VA and IN which will probably go back to red and there's variability in IA and NC, both of which are still leaning towards Obama at this point. OH, CO, NV are all polling safe (D) and Florida is leaning towards Obama.

In other words -- it ain't very farkin' likely that Mitt is going to win this election unless Obama eats a live baby on TV in the next 90 days.

(culled info from electoral-vote.com, fivethirtyeight.com and core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard)


I'm already voting Obama, but this would just secure that.
But his staff would have to be dressed up as Dschingkis Kahn and singing "Moscow" at the time
 
2012-07-30 03:02:57 PM

madgonad: Ayn Rand's Cervix: Romney will pick rubio despite rubio saying time and again he doesnt want to be veep.

Because if there is one group of people that the Hispanic population in the US is in love with, it is the Cubans. They might also have trouble within the party with Rubio's 'anchor baby' status too. Once you throw in the fact that he is almost as dumb as Palin you will start to see why Romney won't pick him.

/it's gonna be another boring white guy


Or he could go with Jindal, the pre-existing condition.
 
2012-07-30 03:03:15 PM
Mitt Romney has to change at least 8 states from Blue in 2008 to Red.

Ain't happening.
 
2012-07-30 03:04:31 PM

qorkfiend: in b4 WombatControl


It was amusing how this point was hammered into his head all morning while he went, "Nu-uh! Nu-uh!"
 
2012-07-30 03:04:52 PM

busy chillin': FTFcomments:

American
obozo's college records? Too stupid to pass the finals? Foreign born student? What's obozo hiding????


Yeah, the Hill's comments are always a hoot. They'll get worse the more it looks like Obama waltzing to a win.
 
2012-07-30 03:05:41 PM

WombatControl: The Obama Cheerleading Brigade®


Drink!
 
2012-07-30 03:08:34 PM

qorkfiend: This could change, though, if Romney picks McDonnell as VP. He's still fairly popular in VA.


Popular or not, although I don't know how he could be that popular or unpopular, he hasn't done anything as governor. He's the Mitt Romney of VA, basically...all he has done for the last 2.5 years is sit around and wait to be picked as VP. That said, I don't see it convincing anyone who wasn't planning on voting for Romney to do so, certainly not anyone psychotic enough to vote for Virgil Goode in the first place.
 
2012-07-30 03:09:19 PM
Ah, I remember this time back in 2010 - when the same bunch of people were saying how it was totally implausible that the Republicans would pick up more than 36 House seats. Remember how that turned out?

And I remember back in 2004 at this time when there were plenty of Farkers who were convinced that Bush was going to lose and lose big - and we all remember how well that turned out for them.

One would think that after a while the liberals and Fark would start realizing that proclaiming assured victory in July when the election wasn't until November would be a fool's errand - but that would apparently not be the case.

Yes, I'll grant that as of right now, Obama has the edge, especially in swing state polling. But the fundamentals are arrayed against him - and if the economy slows down between now and November, the state of the race could change dramatically.
 
2012-07-30 03:12:04 PM

The Evil That Lies In The Hearts Of Men: Bungles: DamnYankees: Even if it words in his favor, I still think its psychotic that we live in a system where someone can get more votes and lose.


That's the case in almost every Western democracy. Most places don't have systems as ridiculous as "electoral votes", but they have either a parliamentary election system (were people are voting for individual members for their area, not an overall leader, which results in a similar upturn of the total vote vs who actually won in individual constituencies) or proportional representation systems (where a winner can be based on the second, third, fourth or fifth choices - which means that the person with the most "first" votes doesn't win) or both.


There's no system I know of in a 2012 democratic country of more than a few hundred people that total popular vote equals winner. I'm not sure that there's such a system that could possibly work.

AV and Instant Run-Off systems come pretty close. IIRC France and Australia use them at various levels of national elections.



They're a lot "fairer" in the democratic sense, but they're still nothing like a "majority of votes in the country" popular vote system (because it would be a daft system).

With .AV and Instant run-off, it's even *more* likely that the results doesn't reflect the simple "popular vote" in the sense of "who most people in the country voted for".
 
2012-07-30 03:14:32 PM

WombatControl: I see the daily talking point has been distributed and fully embraced...

Yes, as of this moment Obama is ahead in the swing states (except for Missouri and Indiana, which are basically lost causes to Obama unless circumstances change). And the Romney team had better be thinking of ways to improve their standing in Ohio, or Romney's chances of winning go down to just about zero.

But again, the assumption that state-level polling in late July matters a hell of a lot as a predictor is just false. You have 1.) fewer polls and 2.) less accurate samples this far out.

If in September Romney is still behind by more than 1-2 points in the swing states, it's probably going to be an Obama win. But if the electoral map changes (and it will), then the predictions will change accordingly.

So yeah, crow all you want about how the fact that Obama is ahead in the swing states now means that Obama is totally going to win. Never mind the fact that Romney's campaign can't even spend general election funds for another six weeks, it's totally in the bag for Obama and everyone should just go home. The Obama Cheerleading Brigade® said it was so.


Hey look, there you are!

1. You assert that Romney will turn this around, but you never demonstrate the how.
2. Romney's enthusiasm gap has dogged and haunted him from the start - just like Kerry, whom you tried to pretend wasn't like Romney at all in lacking enthusiasm or an endearing image, and that somehow didn't cost him the election when 61% of those polled (In your New Republic article you cited) showed they never warmed up to the guy in 2004.
3. Jumping off that point, the last two-term President we had got elected twice based upon his likability. Obama routinely polls well in this area. The last guy had intense critics and negative ads against him. So does Obama.
4. Also the "it's the economy, stupid" doesn't work when the economy is in malaise. It works when it's a disaster. The disaster occurred back in 2007-2008. This is malaise. Romney needs more than, "It needs to improve MOAR!" to get the message across.
5. Oh and there's Republians' well-documented brinksmanship, obstructionism, out of control war spending, hostile comments towards women and minorities and overbearing dread and negativity that's dragging Romney down too.

Bray on with "talking points!1" all you want. Sure, I'll grant you that politics is about 80% puppet show. But the Republicans do not have the momentum here, slight though it may be. The first step to regaining momentum is to admit you don't have it.

But I know, can't do that, it doesn't fit The NarrativeTM.
 
2012-07-30 03:15:53 PM
Obama will roll out the "Nowhere Man" adds next week (coutesy of the Anglo-Saxon loving British press), and Rmoney will be hearing :
"He's a bit like you and I?" over and over again, while they show his houses in Wofesboro, Beacon Hill, LaJolla, five cadilacs etc., and question why "Nowhere man" does not pay taxes, or if he does why no returns.

"Nowhere man, the woooorlda is at your command?" (bombs away as troops head overseas again)

"He's as blind as he can be,
Just sees what he wants to see,
Nowhere Man can you see me at all?
(scenes of angry and crying white mid-westerners laid off by Bain companies.)


"Hasn't got a point of view, knows not where he's going too. (At least not for "You People" to know before voting.)

Romney will lose because most swing state indy voters will determine that he is the biggest phony who ever came down the pike.
 
2012-07-30 03:16:53 PM

Smoking GNU: SWiNG VOtAR SWwWING VOTaR SWwWWWWwWING VoTAR!!!


"Heyyyy, votavotavotavotavotavotavotavotavota-swi-IIIIING, vota!"
 
2012-07-30 03:16:59 PM

WombatControl: But the fundamentals are arrayed against him


Why won't someone think about The Fundamentals!
 
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