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(BBC)   The US economy grew last quarter. OMG BUY. But not by enough. OMG SELL   (bbc.co.uk) divider line 31
    More: Obvious, Federal Reserve  
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510 clicks; posted to Business » on 27 Jul 2012 at 9:35 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-07-27 09:51:20 AM  
Where's Beeks?
 
2012-07-27 10:00:24 AM  
The natural rate of GDP growth for the US is around 3% and anything less than that isn't good.

Think of it this way: if your kid grew an inch between 2 and 3 years old, you would probably have grave concerns, despite the fact that he grew.
 
2012-07-27 10:00:26 AM  
"This is the summer of recovery"

-Joe Biden 2010.

Now halfway into the summer of 2012..


0 for 3 there Joey... Keep tryin' buddy!
 
2012-07-27 10:02:56 AM  

Ricardo Klement: The natural rate of GDP growth for the US is around 3% and anything less than that isn't good.

Think of it this way: if your kid grew an inch between 2 and 3 years old, you would probably have grave concerns, despite the fact that he grew.


It's very hard to say. Obviously this is not good growth rate, but its certainly better than a lot of other countries out there. The UK would kill for this rate right now. I just don't know how much this is a US problem and how much is a world problem.
 
2012-07-27 10:13:13 AM  

Ricardo Klement: The natural rate of GDP growth for the US is around 3%


As determined by what, exactly?
 
2012-07-27 10:15:42 AM  
Actually my understanding is that July forward is supposed to be the time for growth, due to cheaper fuel prices pushing logistic costs down. Although the tradition "OMG election" uncertainty might fark that up.

/cheap gas: great for the individual
//shiatty for jobs since it means it is that much cheaper to haul over boatloads of crap from China
 
2012-07-27 10:18:35 AM  
Still Bush's fault?
 
2012-07-27 10:18:57 AM  

DamnYankees: Ricardo Klement: The natural rate of GDP growth for the US is around 3% and anything less than that isn't good.

Think of it this way: if your kid grew an inch between 2 and 3 years old, you would probably have grave concerns, despite the fact that he grew.

It's very hard to say. Obviously this is not good growth rate, but its certainly better than a lot of other countries out there. The UK would kill for this rate right now. I just don't know how much this is a US problem and how much is a world problem.


Yeah the Eurozone is a farking basketcase right now, China is showing serious signs of slowing and has a massive inflation problem. (their growth rate is already dropping, all that remains to be seen is if they hit recession or not). America turning in a positive growth number is pretty solid right now considering the state of the rest of the industrialized world. 1.5% to 2% when the rest of the world is tanking is pretty good.
 
2012-07-27 10:24:25 AM  

Lost Thought 00: Ricardo Klement: The natural rate of GDP growth for the US is around 3%

As determined by what, exactly?


When they applied Okun's Law to the US unemployment data, they got Ut-Ut-1=-0.4(gyt-3%)... the 3% being the GDP growth rate to keep unemployment from getting worse.
 
2012-07-27 10:27:59 AM  

ha-ha-guy: DamnYankees: Ricardo Klement: The natural rate of GDP growth for the US is around 3% and anything less than that isn't good.

Think of it this way: if your kid grew an inch between 2 and 3 years old, you would probably have grave concerns, despite the fact that he grew.

It's very hard to say. Obviously this is not good growth rate, but its certainly better than a lot of other countries out there. The UK would kill for this rate right now. I just don't know how much this is a US problem and how much is a world problem.

Yeah the Eurozone is a farking basketcase right now, China is showing serious signs of slowing and has a massive inflation problem. (their growth rate is already dropping, all that remains to be seen is if they hit recession or not). America turning in a positive growth number is pretty solid right now considering the state of the rest of the industrialized world. 1.5% to 2% when the rest of the world is tanking is pretty good.


The problem is that the global economy is, well, global, and their numbers will drag ours down. This also means the trade deficit is going to increase (I won't say "worse"), since exports are a function of how rich other countries are.
 
2012-07-27 10:34:12 AM  

Lost Thought 00: Ricardo Klement: The natural rate of GDP growth for the US is around 3%

As determined by what, exactly?


Congress, as 3-4% is the target inflation rate legally mandated by Congress for the Fed. Just through increased prices we should see higher numbers throughout the economy.
 
2012-07-27 10:38:41 AM  
It only works if you say it while wearing Rodney Dangerfield-esque golf pants.
 
2012-07-27 10:46:39 AM  

ha-ha-guy: Actually my understanding is that July forward is supposed to be the time for growth, due to cheaper fuel prices pushing logistic costs down. Although the tradition "OMG election" uncertainty might fark that up.

/cheap gas: great for the individual
//shiatty for jobs since it means it is that much cheaper to haul over boatloads of crap from China


Come on, even Krugman believes in comparative advantage.
 
2012-07-27 10:47:09 AM  

Ricardo Klement: ha-ha-guy: DamnYankees: Ricardo Klement: The natural rate of GDP growth for the US is around 3% and anything less than that isn't good.

Think of it this way: if your kid grew an inch between 2 and 3 years old, you would probably have grave concerns, despite the fact that he grew.

It's very hard to say. Obviously this is not good growth rate, but its certainly better than a lot of other countries out there. The UK would kill for this rate right now. I just don't know how much this is a US problem and how much is a world problem.

Yeah the Eurozone is a farking basketcase right now, China is showing serious signs of slowing and has a massive inflation problem. (their growth rate is already dropping, all that remains to be seen is if they hit recession or not). America turning in a positive growth number is pretty solid right now considering the state of the rest of the industrialized world. 1.5% to 2% when the rest of the world is tanking is pretty good.

The problem is that the global economy is, well, global, and their numbers will drag ours down. This also means the trade deficit is going to increase (I won't say "worse"), since exports are a function of how rich other countries are.


That's my understanding too. If half the countries in the Eurozone weren't on the brink of bankruptcy, everyone would probably be a little better off. We're doing about as well as Germany is right now, and everyone seems to think the German economy is fundamentally sound, even though PIGS is dragging it down.
 
2012-07-27 11:08:19 AM  

Jubeebee: Ricardo Klement: ha-ha-guy: DamnYankees: Ricardo Klement: The natural rate of GDP growth for the US is around 3% and anything less than that isn't good.

Think of it this way: if your kid grew an inch between 2 and 3 years old, you would probably have grave concerns, despite the fact that he grew.

It's very hard to say. Obviously this is not good growth rate, but its certainly better than a lot of other countries out there. The UK would kill for this rate right now. I just don't know how much this is a US problem and how much is a world problem.

Yeah the Eurozone is a farking basketcase right now, China is showing serious signs of slowing and has a massive inflation problem. (their growth rate is already dropping, all that remains to be seen is if they hit recession or not). America turning in a positive growth number is pretty solid right now considering the state of the rest of the industrialized world. 1.5% to 2% when the rest of the world is tanking is pretty good.

The problem is that the global economy is, well, global, and their numbers will drag ours down. This also means the trade deficit is going to increase (I won't say "worse"), since exports are a function of how rich other countries are.

That's my understanding too. If half the countries in the Eurozone weren't on the brink of bankruptcy, everyone would probably be a little better off. We're doing about as well as Germany is right now, and everyone seems to think the German economy is fundamentally sound, even though PIGS is dragging it down.


That and the 1Q rate of the BRICs was 4.8%, down from 6.8% a year earlier. The BRICs are likely cooling because of the Eurozone is in the crapper and China has to slow down.

I keep reading that equities are undervalued worldwide, but are they if growth is this anemic?
 
2012-07-27 11:09:15 AM  
Man, my English sucks.
 
2012-07-27 11:13:44 AM  

Jubeebee: That's my understanding too. If half the countries in the Eurozone weren't on the brink of bankruptcy, everyone would probably be a little better off. We're doing about as well as Germany is right now, and everyone seems to think the German economy is fundamentally sound, even though PIGS is dragging it down.


Agreed. Really, there's basically nothing the USA can do to change its economic situation. (Well, we could invent an assembly line or Internet type thing again, but that doesn't happen very often.) So in one sense it's stupid to criticize Obama for it, though he opened himself up for that by telling America he could fix the economy.
 
2012-07-27 11:14:05 AM  

BolloxReader: Lost Thought 00: Ricardo Klement: The natural rate of GDP growth for the US is around 3%

As determined by what, exactly?

Congress, as 3-4% is the target inflation rate legally mandated by Congress for the Fed. Just through increased prices we should see higher numbers throughout the economy.



Isn't the FED targeting under 2% inflation according to Bernanke just last week? Not doubting your statement, I just haven't heard of legislation speaking to such.

\too lazy to google.
 
2012-07-27 11:18:52 AM  

Jubeebee: That's my understanding too. If half the countries in the Eurozone weren't on the brink of bankruptcy, everyone would probably be a little better off.


I blame Bush.

/it's Bush's fault or something.
/When's the next iproduct coming out?! Freedom, and stuff!
 
2012-07-27 11:37:48 AM  

BolloxReader: Lost Thought 00: Ricardo Klement: The natural rate of GDP growth for the US is around 3%

As determined by what, exactly?

Congress, as 3-4% is the target inflation rate legally mandated by Congress for the Fed. Just through increased prices we should see higher numbers throughout the economy.


What?
 
2012-07-27 12:16:26 PM  
<thanksalotfartbongo.jpg>
 
2012-07-27 01:32:44 PM  

Lost Thought 00: Ricardo Klement: The natural rate of GDP growth for the US is around 3%

As determined by what, exactly?


History.
 
2012-07-27 02:58:13 PM  
Having a drought's probably not helping. Crops are being mowed down, people aren't going out to do sh*t, they're spending more on air conditioning and water - and that's on top of everything else.

We're out of the recession. This is what's called "malaise."
 
2012-07-27 03:37:07 PM  
Does this mean gas is gonna go back up to $4 a gallon again?
 
2012-07-27 03:50:29 PM  

TIKIMAN87: "This is the summer of recovery"

-Joe Biden 2010.

Now halfway into the summer of 2012..

0 for 3 there Joey... Keep tryin' buddy!


What happened in the summer of last year that might have had an effect on job growth. I mean, the year started out so well, and then suddenly job growth slowed just as the summer began. What could possibly have happened?

thinkprogress.org

Oh, right.
 
2012-07-27 04:13:15 PM  

Stile4aly: TIKIMAN87: "This is the summer of recovery"

-Joe Biden 2010.

Now halfway into the summer of 2012..

0 for 3 there Joey... Keep tryin' buddy!

What happened in the summer of last year that might have had an effect on job growth. I mean, the year started out so well, and then suddenly job growth slowed just as the summer began. What could possibly have happened?

[thinkprogress.org image 382x387]

Oh, right.


Blame it on whatever you want.

Funny how Obama said that raising the debt ceiling is un-patriotic.

Oh that and he said he would cut the deficit in half.

He sure is getting lots of exercise running away from his record!
 
2012-07-27 06:39:17 PM  

TIKIMAN87: Stile4aly: TIKIMAN87: "This is the summer of recovery"

-Joe Biden 2010.

Now halfway into the summer of 2012..

0 for 3 there Joey... Keep tryin' buddy!

What happened in the summer of last year that might have had an effect on job growth. I mean, the year started out so well, and then suddenly job growth slowed just as the summer began. What could possibly have happened?

[thinkprogress.org image 382x387]

Oh, right.

Blame it on whatever you want.

Funny how Obama said that raising the debt ceiling is un-patriotic.

Oh that and he said he would cut the deficit in half.

He sure is getting lots of exercise running away from his record!


Obama said it was irresponsible to raise the debt ceiling to pay for 2 wars and tax cuts. Raising the debt ceiling to keep government running in a time of economic uncertainty is a different kettle of fish.

Secondly, Obama proposed a "grand bargain" which would have made major deficit cuts and addresed Medicare and Social Security costs while asking for only modest tax increases. The Republicans abandoned him because Boehner couldn't get the Tea Party in line.
 
2012-07-27 06:51:25 PM  

Stile4aly: Obama said it was irresponsible to raise the debt ceiling to pay for 2 wars and tax cuts. Raising the debt ceiling to keep government running in a time of economic uncertainty is a different kettle of fish.

Secondly, Obama proposed a "grand bargain" which would have made major deficit cuts and addresed Medicare and Social Security costs while asking for only modest tax increases. The Republicans abandoned him because Boehner couldn't get the Tea Party in line.


That's awfully generous. Once you've committed to the wars and tax cuts, refusing to raise the debt ceiling has the exact same effect as it would to "keep government running" (including, I might add, a war and Libya). Blocking the debt ceiling is all politics in both cases, and the guys who are doing the refusing are in the weaker position because if it ever happens, pack it up. We're done. So it'll never happen.
 
2012-07-28 02:01:27 AM  

Buffett guidelines:

-Economy irrelevant.
-Management irrelevant.
-Makes established product/service.
-Underrated.
-Keep for long time.


BUY.
Get rich...slowly
Simple
 
2012-07-28 08:17:13 PM  

Ricardo Klement: Stile4aly: Obama said it was irresponsible to raise the debt ceiling to pay for 2 wars and tax cuts. Raising the debt ceiling to keep government running in a time of economic uncertainty is a different kettle of fish.

Secondly, Obama proposed a "grand bargain" which would have made major deficit cuts and addresed Medicare and Social Security costs while asking for only modest tax increases. The Republicans abandoned him because Boehner couldn't get the Tea Party in line.

That's awfully generous. Once you've committed to the wars and tax cuts, refusing to raise the debt ceiling has the exact same effect as it would to "keep government running" (including, I might add, a war and Libya). Blocking the debt ceiling is all politics in both cases, and the guys who are doing the refusing are in the weaker position because if it ever happens, pack it up. We're done. So it'll never happen.


There's a categorical difference. We financed the wars, Medicare Part D, and tax cuts at a time when the economy was not only growing, but overheated. It would have made much more sense to increase taxes to not only pay the deficit but to cool the housing bubble.
 
2012-07-28 09:10:38 PM  

Stile4aly: Ricardo Klement: Stile4aly: Obama said it was irresponsible to raise the debt ceiling to pay for 2 wars and tax cuts. Raising the debt ceiling to keep government running in a time of economic uncertainty is a different kettle of fish.

Secondly, Obama proposed a "grand bargain" which would have made major deficit cuts and addresed Medicare and Social Security costs while asking for only modest tax increases. The Republicans abandoned him because Boehner couldn't get the Tea Party in line.

That's awfully generous. Once you've committed to the wars and tax cuts, refusing to raise the debt ceiling has the exact same effect as it would to "keep government running" (including, I might add, a war and Libya). Blocking the debt ceiling is all politics in both cases, and the guys who are doing the refusing are in the weaker position because if it ever happens, pack it up. We're done. So it'll never happen.

There's a categorical difference. We financed the wars, Medicare Part D, and tax cuts at a time when the economy was not only growing, but overheated. It would have made much more sense to increase taxes to not only pay the deficit but to cool the housing bubble.


That's beside the point. When it was time to vote on the debt ceiling, it was too late for anything else. Whether or not it should have been financed by taxes or debt is a separate issue.
 
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