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(ESPN)   The NHL went a whole two weeks without going batshiat insane: Weber signs 14 year offer sheet with Flyers   (espn.go.com) divider line 109
    More: Asinine, Shea Weber, offer sheet, NHL, flyer, Ryan Suter, restricted free agent, Minnesota Wild, TSN  
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1292 clicks; posted to Sports » on 19 Jul 2012 at 12:40 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-07-19 10:51:50 AM
Match the deal, or take the four first rounders? Tough call for Nashville.
 
2012-07-19 10:59:36 AM

Resolute: Match the deal, or take the four first rounders? Tough call for Nashville.


There is no "call" as far as I'm concerned. They were already shopping him on the trade market.

I don't understand why so many people think Nashville is going to match. What could they possibly stand to gain by doing so?

Bankrupt the team by signing a guy who obvioulsy doesn't want to play for you to a 14-year, $100 million heavily front-loaded contract, or save your franchise and get 4 first-round picks.

I don't see what option they have. At this point, the only reason to match the offer would be spite.
 
2012-07-19 11:17:44 AM
Weber is set to make about 27 million in the first season alone...a penny-pinching organization like Nashville may not be able to afford the bonuses and may have no choice but to let him walk.

Otherwise the cap hit and term are brilliant for nashville. cap-wise it's affordable as hell for a franchise-level defenceman.

sigdiamond2000: I don't see what option they have. At this point, the only reason to match the offer would be spite.


from a PR standpoint it'd be a disaster. Losing both Suter and Weber would be a massive body blow to the franchise. Draft picks are nice but the 4 1st rounders they get in compensation have a very low % chance of ever becoming players good enough to replace Weber.

And, while they HAVE to shoulder that contract for a year it is EXTREMELY tradeable; they may be able to get a more attractive package from a team in a trade at the end of next year.

Even if they WERE going to trade him anyways, they would be more likely looking for NHL-level talent as part of a trade package. The only problem with the OS is the first year of the deal will see Weber make a ridiculous amount of money.
 
2012-07-19 11:27:42 AM

CanadianCommie: And, while they HAVE to shoulder that contract for a year it is EXTREMELY tradeable; they may be able to get a more attractive package from a team in a trade at the end of next year.


Is paying Shea Weber $27 million for one year of his services worth whatever you'd get back for him on the actual trade market?

In other words, is the difference between 4 first-round picks and fair market trade value worth a one-year payment $20 million ($27 million minus his actual long-term cap hit) with no return on that investment?

Maybe I'm wrong about this, but these numbers just don't crunch. Or would any team that traded for Weber after year one need to compensate Nashville for part of the $27 million? I honestly don't know how that works.
 
2012-07-19 11:34:44 AM

sigdiamond2000: Is paying Shea Weber $27 million for one year of his services worth whatever you'd get back for him on the actual trade market?

In other words, is the difference between 4 first-round picks and fair market trade value worth a one-year payment $20 million ($27 million minus his actual long-term cap hit) with no return on that investment?

Maybe I'm wrong about this, but these numbers just don't crunch. Or would any team that traded for Weber after year one need to compensate Nashville for part of the $27 million? I honestly don't know how that works.


whether it is or isn't worth it is entirely dependent on the financial health of the ownership in Nashville IMO. From a hockey perspective it absolutely is. Odds are the package would include a high-value draft pick, an NHL-ready player and a prospect that will probably be NHL ready very soon. The alternative is 4 1st round draft picks that are likely to be consistently in the high-20s; Those players may take 2-5 years to be even close to NHL ready if they even make it.

The money SUCKS for anyone to pay out, but if they're committed to actually building a successful NHL team sooner rather than later I'd say it's probably worth stomaching that bonus-heavy first year to get a more favourable package for Weber.
 
2012-07-19 11:42:14 AM

CanadianCommie: whether it is or isn't worth it is entirely dependent on the financial health of the ownership in Nashville IMO


Their ownership is good, but they're still a small-market team and not very healthy financially. They're 25/30 in team value.
 
2012-07-19 11:47:07 AM

sigdiamond2000: Their ownership is good, but they're still a small-market team and not very healthy financially. They're 25/30 in team value.


Yeah, their ownership isn't a gongshow but with a tight financial situation dumping 26-27 million into one player's lap in a calendar year is difficult to swallow I'm sure.
 
2012-07-19 11:51:31 AM

sigdiamond2000: Resolute: Match the deal, or take the four first rounders? Tough call for Nashville.

There is no "call" as far as I'm concerned. They were already shopping him on the trade market.

I don't understand why so many people think Nashville is going to match. What could they possibly stand to gain by doing so?

Bankrupt the team by signing a guy who obvioulsy doesn't want to play for you to a 14-year, $100 million heavily front-loaded contract, or save your franchise and get 4 first-round picks.

I don't see what option they have. At this point, the only reason to match the offer would be spite.


Actually, the money is exactly why this is a tough call. If $ was not an issue, Nashville matches without a second thought. But as you say, they have to decide if (a) they can keep Weber, and keep him happy, then (b) if what they can expect to get in trade in a year is worth more to them than four late first rounders + all that money.

Personally, I think they let him walk, but they do have to think about it.
 
2012-07-19 11:53:26 AM

sigdiamond2000: Maybe I'm wrong about this, but these numbers just don't crunch. Or would any team that traded for Weber after year one need to compensate Nashville for part of the $27 million? I honestly don't know how that works.


Cash can be part of a trade package, or at least it could be in the past. The Oilers got $15 million in cash as part of the Gretzky deal. So while it might not be required, Nashville could easily get some money back if they traded him.

I think they have to match it. Otherwise they set their franchise back 5 years just when they started to make progress.

Is there anything stopping Nashville from matching the offer and then immediately trading him for a better return? Or does he need to stay for at least a year? Lots of teams could use Weber now and afford that bonus.
 
2012-07-19 12:03:41 PM
TSN just released the actual details:

The Philadelphia Flyers have signed defenceman Shea Weber to a 14-year offer sheet worth a total of of $110 million. The deal includes $68 million in bonus money in the first six years.

In total, Weber will make $14 million in each of the first four years; $12 million in years five and six; $6 million in each of the next four seasons; $3 million in year 11; and $1 million in each of the remaining years.


Not as front loaded as initially thought.
 
2012-07-19 12:08:09 PM

ignatius_crumbcake: sigdiamond2000: Maybe I'm wrong about this, but these numbers just don't crunch. Or would any team that traded for Weber after year one need to compensate Nashville for part of the $27 million? I honestly don't know how that works.

Cash can be part of a trade package, or at least it could be in the past. The Oilers got $15 million in cash as part of the Gretzky deal. So while it might not be required, Nashville could easily get some money back if they traded him.

I think they have to match it. Otherwise they set their franchise back 5 years just when they started to make progress.

Is there anything stopping Nashville from matching the offer and then immediately trading him for a better return? Or does he need to stay for at least a year? Lots of teams could use Weber now and afford that bonus.


Under the terms of this CBA, teams cannot trade cash. They can trade only players and draft picks.

As to your last question, when a team matches an offer sheet, they have to keep the player for one year. That's why the huge bonuses in the first two years are important. If Nashville matches, they are eating that cost.
 
sn0
2012-07-19 12:45:06 PM
Who uses ESPN for Hockey articles?

Yahoo Sports, TSN and CBS Sportsline are all superior.

Fark ESPN and their anti NHL bigotry.

The Philadelphia Comcasts (whoops I mean Flyers!) are desperately throwing money around like they're the Rangers.
 
2012-07-19 12:46:00 PM

ignatius_crumbcake: Is there anything stopping Nashville from matching the offer and then immediately trading him for a better return? Or does he need to stay for at least a year? Lots of teams could use Weber now and afford that bonus.


Nashville wouldn't be able to trade him for one year, as per the current CBA.
 
2012-07-19 12:47:51 PM
Makes sense that Philly would pick him up with Pronger essentially gone, but that's still a hell of a contract.
 
2012-07-19 12:49:36 PM
Nashville has to match the offer if they don't want to miss playoffs for the next few years. 4 first round picks sounds nice but they will be in the high 20s as I don't see how the Flyers are going to be out of contention earlier than that with the team they have and adding Weber to the mix.

As far as I know, Weber doesn't want to leave Nashville necessarily, he just wants to cash in big right now before the new CBA kicks in (when it does). Weber is one of the reps for players in the CBA talks so I think he's more familiar with what's on the table from the players side (we've only seen the initial offering from the league).
 
2012-07-19 12:53:30 PM
Not insane: the Kings are Stanley Cup champions and Drew Doughty isn't going to prison for sexual assault.

/Go Kings go!
 
2012-07-19 12:58:32 PM

sn0:
The Philadelphia Comcasts (whoops I mean Flyers!) are desperately throwing money around like they're the Rangers.


Might as well. Cap space doesn't win games.
 
2012-07-19 01:00:55 PM

sn0: Who uses ESPN for Hockey articles?

Yahoo Sports, TSN and CBS Sportsline are all superior.

Fark ESPN and their anti NHL bigotry.



As Wysh tirelessly points out on Yahoo!'s Puck Daddy, ESPN.com (and their hockey writing staff) are an entirely separate journalistic entity from the hockey-burying SportsCenter vehicle. LeBrun et. al. do some good work.


bonkmeist: ignatius_crumbcake: Is there anything stopping Nashville from matching the offer and then immediately trading him for a better return? Or does he need to stay for at least a year? Lots of teams could use Weber now and afford that bonus.

Nashville wouldn't be able to trade him for one year, as per the current CBA.



Also, we're not sure if the deal includes a no-trade clause, so they may not be able to get fair value for Weber anyway, if the terms of the contract limit what teams they can work with.
 
2012-07-19 01:08:56 PM
As a Hawks fan, I'm ok with this.
 
2012-07-19 01:09:22 PM

sigdiamond2000: TSN just released the actual details:

The Philadelphia Flyers have signed defenceman Shea Weber to a 14-year offer sheet worth a total of of $110 million. The deal includes $68 million in bonus money in the first six years.

In total, Weber will make $14 million in each of the first four years; $12 million in years five and six; $6 million in each of the next four seasons; $3 million in year 11; and $1 million in each of the remaining years.

Not as front loaded as initially thought.


That's a pretty hardcore beaver tail. This shiat is totally getting regulated in the next CBA.

// four firsts from Philly isn't going to be that high in the board
// still, four firsts...
 
2012-07-19 01:11:18 PM
farm2.static.flickr.com

Wouldn't it have been cheaper to just by the predators? BECAUSE I LIKE THE CAT ON THEIR JERSEY
 
2012-07-19 01:13:33 PM

sigdiamond2000: They're 25/30 in team value.


Before I clicked the link I interpreted that as "they're only worth around $25-30 million". Whoa.
 
2012-07-19 01:14:01 PM
I'm actually curious as to how Philly stays under the cap with the frontloaded portion of this without dumping salary. And that assumes (which is obviously a safe assumption) that pronger never skates again and stays on IR.
 
2012-07-19 01:18:37 PM

ignatius_crumbcake:
Is there anything stopping Nashville from matching the offer and then immediately trading him for a better return? Or does he need to stay for at least a year? Lots of teams could use Weber now and afford that bonus.


Once a restricted free agent signs an offer sheet, you can't trade that player for a year if you decide to match it, to prevent that exact scenario.
 
2012-07-19 01:24:03 PM

LineNoise: I'm actually curious as to how Philly stays under the cap with the frontloaded portion of this without dumping salary. And that assumes (which is obviously a safe assumption) that pronger never skates again and stays on IR.


Because in the NHL, the cap calculations are averaged across the length of the contract, that's why these contracts are so long.

I hope this Weber deal goes through. It's like trading old Pronger for young Pronger
 
2012-07-19 01:25:06 PM
Yeah, sucks to be Nashville right now. Your choices are blowing up your entire budget or going into rebuilding mode. I think they will go into rebuilding mode and start dumping for more picks.
 
2012-07-19 01:27:07 PM

MugzyBrown: LineNoise: I'm actually curious as to how Philly stays under the cap with the frontloaded portion of this without dumping salary. And that assumes (which is obviously a safe assumption) that pronger never skates again and stays on IR.

Because in the NHL, the cap calculations are averaged across the length of the contract, that's why these contracts are so long.

I hope this Weber deal goes through. It's like trading old Pronger for young Pronger


Yea, but the flyers only have about 7mil in cap space right now. Reading into this more, it seems to be them getting creative with how the bonuses are structured and the definition of a year in the CBA.

Which, I'm sure, will now be a great point of discussion in the labor talks. It also makes you wonder how much move like this, suter, parissi, etc were based on owners figuring they could get some of that cash back during negotiations. "Hey, buddy, better sign this now, because come september, nobody will be able to offer you a deal close to this ever again"
 
2012-07-19 01:27:41 PM
also, the flyers have a fair bit of capspace right now with only a handful of players left to re-up; plus Pronger will go on LTR and that'll free up his salary for another year.

They may need to move a player or two in the end but with Jagr walking away that freed up a fair bit of cap.
 
2012-07-19 01:28:18 PM
And as a flyers fan, and someone who would be happy to see him come on board, I think its kind of dirty how we are weaseling around the cap and basically dicking over the preds.

But, well, as a flyers fan, I expect that of my team.
 
2012-07-19 01:29:58 PM

MugzyBrown: Because in the NHL, the cap calculations are averaged across the length of the contract, that's why these contracts are so long.


Wow really? That'll come back to bite some teams... so in 2026 this contract will count about $8 million against the cap.
 
2012-07-19 01:30:52 PM

LineNoise: And as a flyers fan, and someone who would be happy to see him come on board, I think its kind of dirty how we are weaseling around the cap and basically dicking over the preds.

But, well, as a flyers fan, I expect that of my team.


I mean, that's the entire reason the salary cap exists, so everyone will be weasels, because you're not allowed to just say "f*ck you, I have money and I want this person."
 
2012-07-19 01:32:14 PM

LineNoise: Yea, but the flyers only have about 7mil in cap space right now. Reading into this more, it seems to be them getting creative with how the bonuses are structured and the definition of a year in the CBA.


They have $7m in cap space if you count Pronger'shiat. Pronger will be on LTIR and his contract will be wiped out by Weber because you can replace Pronger's salary.

I'm sure the Flyers promised Pronger a f/o position if he stays unretired
 
2012-07-19 01:33:01 PM

Supes: Wow really? That'll come back to bite some teams... so in 2026 this contract will count about $8 million against the cap.


By then, the GM and coach will have been fired, so what do they care?
 
2012-07-19 01:33:15 PM

LineNoise: And as a flyers fan, and someone who would be happy to see him come on board, I think its kind of dirty how we are weaseling around the cap and basically dicking over the preds.

But, well, as a flyers fan, I expect that of my team.


Frankly, I think they need to put in contract limits or even just restructure the process of cap hits for them (i.e. can only spread cap hit over x years, or if player will be older than y it can't be spread).
 
2012-07-19 01:37:12 PM
Tough call.

On the one hand, if they aim to keep him, the Flyers just did all their work for them in getting him locked up long-term. As a bonus, Nashville could ignore any NTC/NMCs in the contract.

On the other hand, holy crap that's a lot of dough, especially for a team like the Predators, who aren't big spenders.

I think it was obvious Weber was going to free agency. The question now becomes, do the Predators think he'll want to be in Nashville, or that they can trade him next summer for something more valuable than what would probably be 4 late first-rounders?

And aside from the money or his desire, there's also just the look of it. In one summer Nashville could lose both of their blue line titans and be considerably weaker. Not just on the ice, but at the ticket box, as well. A lot of what they've been building in Nashville would take about a half dozen steps back. Which is a shame. They've been a tenacious franchise with a winning tradition that has slowly won over fans. A blow like this really hurts a team in their position.
 
2012-07-19 01:38:28 PM

IAmRight: Supes: Wow really? That'll come back to bite some teams... so in 2026 this contract will count about $8 million against the cap.

By then, the GM and coach will have been fired, so what do they care?


And the cap will be at $200M.
 
2012-07-19 01:42:17 PM
Te smart move would be to let him walk and take the picks, but hockey considerations and money are not the only factors at play. Nashville may have to match to appease their fan base after letting Suter get away in free agency.

It's like when Edmonton offer-sheeted Vanek back in 2007. Buffalo had to match, or else the fanbase, who had just watched Briere and Drury leave in free agency, would have gone ballistic.
 
2012-07-19 01:42:56 PM

Droog8912: Frankly, I think they need to put in contract limits or even just restructure the process of cap hits for them (i.e. can only spread cap hit over x years, or if player will be older than y it can't be spread).


I assume the NHLPA will fight limits on contracts, but the league needs to at least get rid of the loophole where salary averages out for the cap. Which, in effect, makes signing a guy for 20 years pointless. There's a few big market teams that would fight such a move, but I think the majority of the franchises would welcome the limit. Hopefully they can give the players something to have them agree to it, as well.
 
2012-07-19 01:45:45 PM

Resolute: Match the deal, or take the four first rounders? Tough call for Nashville.


four first rounders. that's crazy. which years? and philly's or just at the end of the round. what's the formula for compensation?

/clearly i'm not an expert on compensation in the nhl.
 
2012-07-19 01:46:47 PM

A Fark Handle: four first rounders. that's crazy. which years? and philly's or just at the end of the round. what's the formula for compensation?

/clearly i'm not an expert on compensation in the nhl.


The Flyers would give Nashville their next 4 1st round picks
 
2012-07-19 01:46:53 PM

sigdiamond2000: Resolute: Match the deal, or take the four first rounders? Tough call for Nashville.

There is no "call" as far as I'm concerned. They were already shopping him on the trade market.

I don't understand why so many people think Nashville is going to match. What could they possibly stand to gain by doing so?

.


Probably because the Nashhville GM said he'd match any offer on Shae Webber. Whether he does that or not who knows but that might be your first clue on why people think he will match.
 
2012-07-19 01:47:33 PM

Supes: MugzyBrown: Because in the NHL, the cap calculations are averaged across the length of the contract, that's why these contracts are so long.

Wow really? That'll come back to bite some teams... so in 2026 this contract will count about $8 million against the cap.



Assuming the same rules still apply, there's a couple of common scenarios:

- Weber retires before playing the really low-salary years--> cap hit is erased, b/c the contract came into effect before he turned 35
- Weber is old and busted, and so they trade him to a team looking to hit the cap floor, since that team'll only have to pay him $1M.
 
2012-07-19 01:49:30 PM

swahnhennessy: Tough call.

On the one hand, if they aim to keep him, the Flyers just did all their work for them in getting him locked up long-term. As a bonus, Nashville could ignore any NTC/NMCs in the contract.

On the other hand, holy crap that's a lot of dough, especially for a team like the Predators, who aren't big spenders.

I think it was obvious Weber was going to free agency. The question now becomes, do the Predators think he'll want to be in Nashville, or that they can trade him next summer for something more valuable than what would probably be 4 late first-rounders?

And aside from the money or his desire, there's also just the look of it. In one summer Nashville could lose both of their blue line titans and be considerably weaker. Not just on the ice, but at the ticket box, as well. A lot of what they've been building in Nashville would take about a half dozen steps back. Which is a shame. They've been a tenacious franchise with a winning tradition that has slowly won over fans. A blow like this really hurts a team in their position.


losing Weber and Suter would definitely be a blow to the team but i don't think it'll be a blow to the franchise, if the team can build a good offense so Rinne isn't having to save nearly as much then the fans will be happy
 
2012-07-19 01:52:45 PM

MugzyBrown: A Fark Handle: four first rounders. that's crazy. which years? and philly's or just at the end of the round. what's the formula for compensation?

/clearly i'm not an expert on compensation in the nhl.

The Flyers would give Nashville their next 4 1st round picks


thanks. hmmm, that's sort of a difficult decision. if the flyers were really sucky, it probably wouldn't be as difficult.
 
2012-07-19 01:55:42 PM
thanks. hmmm, that's sort of a difficult decision. if the flyers were really sucky, it probably wouldn't be as difficult.

Flyers will have a good, mostly young team for the next 4 years for sure, so those picks will be around 20.
 
2012-07-19 02:03:45 PM

Doublespeak: sigdiamond2000: Resolute: Match the deal, or take the four first rounders? Tough call for Nashville.

There is no "call" as far as I'm concerned. They were already shopping him on the trade market.

I don't understand why so many people think Nashville is going to match. What could they possibly stand to gain by doing so?

.

Probably because the Nashhville GM said he'd match any offer on Shae Webber. Whether he does that or not who knows but that might be your first clue on why people think he will match.


This is still a pretty big crap shoot. You either tie yourself down with an enormous contract, which may prevent you from filling out other areas of consideration because you don't have the money, or you try to hold over for next season with RFAs and try to snag someone because you have 4 1st rounders in your back pocket and can afford to off some of your own.

Do you bite the bullet and hope he stays healthy, or do you wait a season and roll the dice with next year's market?
 
2012-07-19 02:09:20 PM
With a smaller hockey market like Nashville, there's really only one thing you can do: take the draft picks and lobby for a more favorable ruleset in the next CBA.
 
2012-07-19 02:11:07 PM

Doublespeak:
Probably because the Nashhville GM said he'd match any offer on Shae Webber. Whether he does that or not who knows but that might be your first clue on why people think he will match.


if only there was another big named sports signing that happened recently where an owner said something like that......
 
2012-07-19 02:16:08 PM

LineNoise: Doublespeak:
Probably because the Nashhville GM said he'd match any offer on Shae Webber. Whether he does that or not who knows but that might be your first clue on why people think he will match.

if only there was another big named sports signing that happened recently where an owner said something like that......


We should see what Carmelo Anthony has to say about this.
 
2012-07-19 02:21:08 PM

Gosling: With a smaller hockey market like Nashville, there's really only one thing you can do: take the draft picks and lobby for a more favorable ruleset in the next CBA.


I would LOVE to be a fly on the wall during this weeks negotiations. First Leopold and his two 13-year deals and now this less than a week after the five year term limit proposal. Fehr must have damn near creamed his pants when he saw this.
 
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