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(LA Times)   Computer scientists are developing the foundation for an entirely new scientific discipline, enabling them to produce probabilistic predictions of future events. Hari Seldon would be impressed   (latimes.com) divider line 5
    More: Interesting, sciences, computing, data points, predictions, Leon Trotsky, National Academy of Sciences, Afghanistan, computational science  
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1715 clicks; posted to Geek » on 18 Jul 2012 at 11:43 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-07-18 12:25:53 PM
3 votes:
Wait until the Taliban gets the Mule
2012-07-18 01:05:01 PM
1 votes:

dr.zaeus:

Also, this is not a "new scientific discipline"... I've been working in Geospatial statistics for the past 10 years.


No, but it made the headline work.
2012-07-18 12:42:00 PM
1 votes:

fatbear: They didn't predict the future, they predicted the past. Just because their model matched what happened doesn't mean it's accurate.

1) Make predictive model.
2) Compare it to events outside the scope of your model.
3) Does your model match the events? If not, go to step 1.
4) Claim you predicted the future.

Step 3a, "compare it to future events as they happen," is curiously missing.

Maybe they're right, maybe not.


Also, this is not a "new scientific discipline"... I've been working in Geospatial statistics for the past 10 years.
2012-07-18 12:29:33 PM
1 votes:
The model will invariably predict that all future events are caused by psychologists, then, it will correct itself and attribute the events to a worldwide consciousness, then it will correct itself again and say it was a robot on the moon.
2012-07-18 12:23:47 PM
1 votes:
This thread is turning into a Seldon crisis.
 
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