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(LA Times)   Computer scientists are developing the foundation for an entirely new scientific discipline, enabling them to produce probabilistic predictions of future events. Hari Seldon would be impressed   (latimes.com) divider line 28
    More: Interesting, sciences, computing, data points, predictions, Leon Trotsky, National Academy of Sciences, Afghanistan, computational science  
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1715 clicks; posted to Geek » on 18 Jul 2012 at 11:43 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-07-18 10:24:49 AM
 
2012-07-18 11:18:22 AM
tarotreadingsdc.com

A "new" "science" is it?
 
2012-07-18 11:50:47 AM
25.media.tumblr.com
 
2012-07-18 11:56:09 AM
Do they work for Oracle?
 
2012-07-18 11:59:02 AM

Because People in power are Stupid: This is silly.


'Nations do not defeat their foe in a single battle; rather, victory results from aggregate success over a series of interactions. Only by gradually reducing an opponent's capacity to resist can a nation force victory.'

A theory developed through months of solid Europa Universalis gameplay?
 
2012-07-18 12:01:26 PM
Not impressed :

www.blakes-7.co.uk
 
2012-07-18 12:02:54 PM
They didn't predict the future, they predicted the past. Just because their model matched what happened doesn't mean it's accurate.

1) Make predictive model.
2) Compare it to events outside the scope of your model.
3) Does your model match the events? If not, go to step 1.
4) Claim you predicted the future.

Step 3a, "compare it to future events as they happen," is curiously missing.

Maybe they're right, maybe not.
 
2012-07-18 12:07:17 PM
Really enjoyed the first two books but lost interest in the third. Does it get better??
 
2012-07-18 12:08:32 PM
"Developing the foundation"?
Subby is a mule.
 
2012-07-18 12:14:36 PM
This is nothing new.

Monte Carlo Simulation
 
2012-07-18 12:23:47 PM
This thread is turning into a Seldon crisis.
 
2012-07-18 12:25:53 PM
Wait until the Taliban gets the Mule
 
2012-07-18 12:29:33 PM
The model will invariably predict that all future events are caused by psychologists, then, it will correct itself and attribute the events to a worldwide consciousness, then it will correct itself again and say it was a robot on the moon.
 
2012-07-18 12:42:00 PM

fatbear: They didn't predict the future, they predicted the past. Just because their model matched what happened doesn't mean it's accurate.

1) Make predictive model.
2) Compare it to events outside the scope of your model.
3) Does your model match the events? If not, go to step 1.
4) Claim you predicted the future.

Step 3a, "compare it to future events as they happen," is curiously missing.

Maybe they're right, maybe not.


Also, this is not a "new scientific discipline"... I've been working in Geospatial statistics for the past 10 years.
 
2012-07-18 01:03:32 PM
I knew you were going to say that.
 
2012-07-18 01:05:01 PM

dr.zaeus:

Also, this is not a "new scientific discipline"... I've been working in Geospatial statistics for the past 10 years.


No, but it made the headline work.
 
2012-07-18 01:12:50 PM
What is this, application of Bayesian Modeling Averaging?

/If yes, this isn't new.
 
2012-07-18 01:14:10 PM

rfronk: This is nothing new.

Monte Carlo Simulation


+ some Bayesian stuff, I imagine...
 
2012-07-18 01:26:04 PM

Cheron: Wait until the Taliban gets the Mule


The Second Foundation will take care of it.
 
2012-07-18 02:10:27 PM
Predicting where violence may happen next?
Cops have been doing prediction-driven patrols for decades.
There's a TV commercial right now which features it.
 
2012-07-18 02:15:00 PM
Interesting....
 
2012-07-18 02:20:27 PM

johnnyboog: Really enjoyed the first two books but lost interest in the third. Does it get better??


Not really. Read through 6 books. Books 4 and 5 continue the story of the plan, which has been altered as you can assume from previous events and the story continues with new characters some years after the last book. They come to new realizations about how people work and live and visit planets with new and possibly better ideas for humanity than the Foundation ideas. You explore more of how humans spread through the Milky Way and how long it took, with a greater focus on the historical and possibly fairy tale Earth. The last book is a prequel that follows Seldon in his early life. The information in the last book is already known to everyone, just not the details of how it came to be.
 
2012-07-18 07:07:47 PM
1.bp.blogspot.com
 
2012-07-18 07:16:29 PM
It's called game theory, and it looks like it data is being collected to apply it in a structured computer model.
 
2012-07-18 08:34:03 PM

Anarchangel: [1.bp.blogspot.com image 397x397]


Know how I know you've never read the Foundation series?

/Groups > individuals
 
2012-07-18 09:37:02 PM
an entirely new scientific discipline

I would think this is a troll, but based on my experience of computer scientists, it is probably sincere.The science is a very old science. It is called sociology, Subby, you scientifically illiterate noob.
 
2012-07-19 01:57:20 AM

lordargent:

Asimov said to read them in chronological order :P


That's idiotic because Prelude to Foundation contains huge spoilers and should only be read after Foundation and Earth
 
2012-07-19 08:52:35 AM

The All-Powerful Atheismo: lordargent:

Asimov said to read them in chronological order :P

That's idiotic because Prelude to Foundation contains huge spoilers and should only be read after Foundation and Earth


Oh, I guess I started off reading them wrong.... still enjoyed the first two cool immensely.
 
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