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(BusinessWeek)   Obama seeks to keep once-red Virginia on his side. Virginia, people, read it correctly. Bunch of damn perverts   (businessweek.com) divider line 45
    More: Unlikely, obama, New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Roanoke, Hampton Roads, Veterans of Foreign Wars, John McCain  
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840 clicks; posted to Politics » on 13 Jul 2012 at 11:26 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-07-13 09:24:41 AM
GOP, KEEP YOUR HANDS OFF MY VIRGINIA!
 
2012-07-13 09:40:37 AM
There is a "spectrum" of states on the "Solid GOP" to "Solid Dem" in the election.

Virginia is one of those "middle" states that, despite 2008, should still lean towards being favorable to the GOP.

If Obama wins Virginia early again, it is basically over, as there is more than 269 EV leaning more democratic than Virginia.
 
vpb [TotalFark]
2012-07-13 10:17:01 AM

dletter: There is a "spectrum" of states on the "Solid GOP" to "Solid Dem" in the election.

Virginia is one of those "middle" states that, despite 2008, should still lean towards being favorable to the GOP.

If Obama wins Virginia early again, it is basically over, as there is more than 269 EV leaning more democratic than Virginia.


Yes, but there is a lot of migration to Virginia from blue states to fill those high tech jobs that rednecks cant do, so I think those estimates might be a bit off.
 
2012-07-13 10:25:51 AM
Virginia is basically two states: Northern Virginia and Everywhere Else. Northern Virginia, which also includes pockets around Richmond and Virginia Beach, votes Democratic. Everywhere Else does not.
 
2012-07-13 11:17:07 AM

Pocket Ninja: Virginia is basically two states: Northern Virginia and Everywhere Else. Northern Virginia, which also includes pockets around Richmond and Virginia Beach, votes Democratic. Everywhere Else does not.


Sounds like Illinois. There are like 8-10 counties in Illinois that are reliably Democratic; the rest of the state might as well be Kentucky.
 
2012-07-13 11:27:26 AM

vpb: dletter: There is a "spectrum" of states on the "Solid GOP" to "Solid Dem" in the election.

Virginia is one of those "middle" states that, despite 2008, should still lean towards being favorable to the GOP.

If Obama wins Virginia early again, it is basically over, as there is more than 269 EV leaning more democratic than Virginia.

Yes, but there is a lot of migration to Virginia from blue states to fill those high tech jobs that rednecks cant do, so I think those estimates might be a bit off.


So, you are saying that Virginia's place on the "spectrum" has probably moved much more to the "left" than it has in previous years anyway?

Just wondering where you would put them then? Here is my general "spectrum" right now (the spectrum being, if you win a state, you are highly likely to have also won the other states going towards your "side").....

(Going from GOP to Democratic).....

Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Montana, Arizona, South Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Nevada, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Minnesota, Oregon, Maine, California, Washington, New York, Vermont, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Hawaii, D.C.

The ones near the ends you could make arguments for moving some around, but, the first 10-15 on each end are almost a "tie" anyway.... if the opposing campaign is winning in any of those states, it is going to be near a Reagan-Mondale level E.V. landslide.

Would be interested to see people's opinions of the middle 15-20 (probably the span between Arizona to Minnesota). You think I am way off on some of these in the spectrum?

I also realize that some states are much more of a "Wild Card" than others (NH comes to mind), so, it is harder to stick them in a particular "place" in the spectrum for the purposes I stated.

Based on my order in the list though, the state where either candidate would cross the 269 mark is Ohio (not a shocker)... that gives democrats 275 having Ohio and everything to their side, and GOP 281 is they have Ohio and everything to their side.

So, I still have Virginia on the "GOP" side of the Ohio 'crossover' state side, although only by 3 states.
 
2012-07-13 11:28:40 AM
i2.cdn.turner.com

Virginia?
 
2012-07-13 11:31:22 AM
lulz, nice subby

/I read it as "virgin"
 
2012-07-13 11:33:53 AM
He better because always-red-except in 08-NC is returning to its roots this year, if the marriage amendment vote is any indication.
 
2012-07-13 11:35:07 AM

js34603: He better because always-red-except in 08-NC is returning to its roots this year, if the marriage amendment vote is any indication.


The one held during a Republican primary? I don't think that's indicative of much except that Republican primary voters don't like gay marriage.
 
2012-07-13 11:35:29 AM

Jubeebee: Pocket Ninja: Virginia is basically two states: Northern Virginia and Everywhere Else. Northern Virginia, which also includes pockets around Richmond and Virginia Beach, votes Democratic. Everywhere Else does not.

Sounds like Illinois. There are like 8-10 counties in Illinois that are reliably Democratic; the rest of the state might as well be Kentucky.


That's probably most large states. The city dwellers are overwhelmingly liberal and then the 'burbs and the countryside lean conservative.
 
2012-07-13 11:36:06 AM
Virginia has some of the richest counties in America due to govt jobs. Those people know which side their bread is buttered on and will vote accordingly.
 
2012-07-13 11:37:17 AM

Arkanaut: Jubeebee: Pocket Ninja: Virginia is basically two states: Northern Virginia and Everywhere Else. Northern Virginia, which also includes pockets around Richmond and Virginia Beach, votes Democratic. Everywhere Else does not.

Sounds like Illinois. There are like 8-10 counties in Illinois that are reliably Democratic; the rest of the state might as well be Kentucky.

That's probably most large states. The city dwellers are overwhelmingly liberal and then the 'burbs and the countryside lean conservative.


A quick look at Congressional district maps tells us this is true. Even solidly blue states like New York and California have large swaths outside the cities that are very conservative.
 
2012-07-13 11:37:40 AM

dletter: If Obama wins Virginia early again, it is basically over, as there is more than 269 EV leaning more democratic than Virginia.


Unless the voter suppression tactics pay off in Pennsylvania.

But yeah, it seems unlikely there will be much of a horse race left after the East Coast polls get results. Ohio and Virginia look like they'll be the key harbingers, though Florida going for Obama would be a louder deathknell for Romney.
 
2012-07-13 11:38:34 AM
PPP

July
Obama vs Romney: 50-42
 
2012-07-13 11:39:13 AM

Mrbogey: Virginia has some of the richest counties in America due to govt jobs. Those people know which side their bread is buttered on and will vote accordingly.


The vast majority of those jobs are through defense contractors, you're not making the point you think you're making.

Obama is the first Democratic Presidential Candidate this state voted for since LBJ. While it's possible that we'll do it again, it's not likely. It is fun to have my vote count, though.
 
2012-07-13 11:48:23 AM

Pocket Ninja: Virginia is basically two states: Northern Virginia and Everywhere Else. Northern Virginia, which also includes pockets around Richmond and Virginia Beach, votes Democratic. Everywhere Else does not.


Is Norfolk red? It has always struck me as blue. But maybe because I stuck around the Ghent area.

/Ghent is hipster central for Southeast Virginia
 
2012-07-13 11:49:05 AM

dletter: vpb: dletter: There is a "spectrum" of states on the "Solid GOP" to "Solid Dem" in the election.

Virginia is one of those "middle" states that, despite 2008, should still lean towards being favorable to the GOP.

If Obama wins Virginia early again, it is basically over, as there is more than 269 EV leaning more democratic than Virginia.

Yes, but there is a lot of migration to Virginia from blue states to fill those high tech jobs that rednecks cant do, so I think those estimates might be a bit off.

So, you are saying that Virginia's place on the "spectrum" has probably moved much more to the "left" than it has in previous years anyway?

Just wondering where you would put them then? Here is my general "spectrum" right now (the spectrum being, if you win a state, you are highly likely to have also won the other states going towards your "side").....

(Going from GOP to Democratic).....

Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Montana, Arizona, South Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Nevada, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Minnesota, Oregon, Maine, California, Washington, New York, Vermont, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Hawaii, D.C.

The ones near the ends you could make arguments for moving some around, but, the first 10-15 on each end are almost a "tie" anyway.... if the opposing campaign is winning in any of those states, it is going to be near a Reagan-Mondale level E.V. landslide.

Would be interested to see people's opinions of the middle 15-20 (probably the span between Arizona to Minnesota). You think I am way off on some of these in the spectrum?

I also realize that some states are much more of a "Wild Card" than others (NH comes to mind), so, it is harder to stick them in a parti ...


Why does everyone consider Nevada to be so Republican leaning? In 2010, the Republicans managed to win the one swing congressional district by a single point. The Dems kept everything else; SoS, AG, Treasury, the Assembly, the state Senate. Christ, we even beat back the tea party's signature candidate by re-electing Harry muthafarkin' REID. REID.

... anyways, Nevada should be further to the D side of your list. :)
 
2012-07-13 11:49:22 AM

Jubeebee: Pocket Ninja: Virginia is basically two states: Northern Virginia and Everywhere Else. Northern Virginia, which also includes pockets around Richmond and Virginia Beach, votes Democratic. Everywhere Else does not.

Sounds like Illinois. There are like 8-10 counties in Illinois that are reliably Democratic; the rest of the state might as well be Kentucky.


We all know how well Illinois is doing.
 
2012-07-13 11:51:16 AM

qorkfiend: js34603: He better because always-red-except in 08-NC is returning to its roots this year, if the marriage amendment vote is any indication.

The one held during a Republican primary? I don't think that's indicative of much except that Republican primary voters don't like gay marriage.


It was a general primary, not Republican. Maybe more republicans turned out then Democrats but anyone interested in voting against the Amendment had the opportunity, but it easily passed.

Because unsurprisingly the Bible Belt Buckle hates the gays, who Obama also immediately came out in support of after this vote. NC will go Republican this time.
 
2012-07-13 11:52:13 AM

Jubeebee: Pocket Ninja: Virginia is basically two states: Northern Virginia and Everywhere Else. Northern Virginia, which also includes pockets around Richmond and Virginia Beach, votes Democratic. Everywhere Else does not.

Sounds like Illinois. There are like 8-10 counties in Illinois that are reliably Democratic; the rest of the state might as well be Kentucky.


I think that's the story everywhere. The solid blue states all have exceptionally large cities with a majority of the state's population living there. The solid red states are large by area and therefore have lots of rural area. In NC, Amendment One was voted down in every county with a city, and passed in every predominantly rural county except Watauga county, which is home to a large University.

As a general rule:
Urban= Democrat (living on top of each other requires an appreciation for nuance and complexity, an ability to work with people from diverse experiences, some flexibility in principles and ideology, and a "just get it done" utilitarian notion of government)
Rural = Good Republicans (conservative, thoughtful, earnest, actually work hard and understand what personal risks are about, appreciate and expect personal responsibility, god important, tradition important, family values important, government is a stranger coming by to tell you what to do)
Suburban = Bad Republicans (over-payed for fake jobs, leach off services of nearby urban center but avoid contributing taxes, obsessed with social status implications of church and family values, very irresponsible but equate having money with being responsible, not so much conservative as against anything Democrats do, hate government because Democrats)
 
2012-07-13 11:53:17 AM

The Homer Tax: Mrbogey: Virginia has some of the richest counties in America due to govt jobs. Those people know which side their bread is buttered on and will vote accordingly.

The vast majority of those jobs are through defense contractors, you're not making the point you think you're making.

Obama is the first Democratic Presidential Candidate this state voted for since LBJ. While it's possible that we'll do it again, it's not likely. It is fun to have my vote count, though.


Most polling is showing that it is likely, though. Nate Silver has Virginia at about the same chance of voting for Obama as Ohio.
 
2012-07-13 11:56:18 AM

salvador.hardin: Rural = Good Republicans (conservative, thoughtful, earnest, actually work hard and understand what personal risks are about, appreciate and expect personal responsibility, god important, tradition important, family values important, government is a stranger coming by to tell you what to do)


How romantic.
 
2012-07-13 12:00:22 PM

Duke Phillips' Singing Bears: salvador.hardin: Rural = Good Republicans (conservative, thoughtful, earnest, actually work hard and understand what personal risks are about, appreciate and expect personal responsibility, god important, tradition important, family values important, government is a stranger coming by to tell you what to do)

How romantic.


Well there's also meth, racism, inbreeding, meth, violence and meth. But when generalizing where the politics come from I think a little romanticism is appropriate.
 
2012-07-13 12:14:34 PM

dletter: There is a "spectrum" of states on the "Solid GOP" to "Solid Dem" in the election.

Virginia is one of those "middle" states that, despite 2008, should still lean towards being favorable to the GOP.

If Obama wins Virginia early again, it is basically over, as there is more than 269 EV leaning more democratic than Virginia.


as even the uber-right wing Washington Examiner pointed out, VA is basically lost to Romney. Not only is Obama already leading there by as many as 8 points, but there is dark horse that complicates things further for romeny. A native son, former Democratic and Republican Congressman Virgil Goode who is running for president on the Constitution Party ticket. He's only polling at about 10% in the state, but all 10% comes out of Romney's hide, not Obama's which then puts Obama up by "landslide" levels

And since Romeny basically needs a clean sweep of the battlegrounds to have a chance of winning....
 
2012-07-13 12:16:07 PM
Aw, crap, I live in a swing state now? My vote actually counts?

OK, which of these two assholes do I despise less?
 
2012-07-13 12:16:20 PM

mekki: Pocket Ninja: Virginia is basically two states: Northern Virginia and Everywhere Else. Northern Virginia, which also includes pockets around Richmond and Virginia Beach, votes Democratic. Everywhere Else does not.

Is Norfolk red? It has always struck me as blue. But maybe because I stuck around the Ghent area.

/Ghent is hipster central for Southeast Virginia


I can attest to this. The Hampton Roads area is kind of 50/50 when it comes to Dem/Rep. It's very red in some places, though; I can't go to my local comic shop without hearing how awesome George Allen is, and how "Obama is a socialist outsourcer who's going to kill us!". It's about insane. There's a lot of support for Obama, though, from the younger folks. I'm truly hoping we can work this out.

Pretty much the rule of thum is the closer you get to farm country, the more Republican you get.

/ymmv
 
2012-07-13 12:18:11 PM

MasterThief: Aw, crap, I live in a swing state now? My vote actually counts?

OK, which of these two assholes do I despise less?


The one who will do less things like Bush.

Hint: His ancestors had multiple wives.

Um, better hint: He's not 100% white.
 
2012-07-13 12:23:59 PM

dletter: Would be interested to see people's opinions of the middle 15-20 (probably the span between Arizona to Minnesota). You think I am way off on some of these in the spectrum?


Arizona, South Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Iowa, North Carolina, Michigan, Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada, Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio (thanks, Bain), Colorado, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Jersey

I'd like to think my home state of New Jersey is the most progressive of the bunch, but they have an epidemic of Fat Bastarditis sweeping that state, even my own Gary Hart-lovin' mother thinks teachers make too much money.

I don't know what the f*ck is going on in Michigan, but Obama isn't looking too hot in the polls. His policies have been very kind toward them, but the voters must be chalking up their recovery to their Republican governor's decision to take away black people's right to govern themselves.
 
2012-07-13 12:32:34 PM
It's so weird that the VA is now a swing state. It means a lot more political commercials to fast forward through on the ol' DVR when I'm watching my Burn notice.
 
2012-07-13 12:33:03 PM

Pocket Ninja: Virginia is basically two states: Northern Virginia and Everywhere Else. Northern Virginia, which also includes pockets around Richmond and Virginia Beach, votes Democratic. Everywhere Else does not.


People in urban centers tend to be more liberal than those in the sticks? Who knew?
 
2012-07-13 12:33:27 PM

The Homer Tax: Obama is the first Democratic Presidential Candidate this state voted for since LBJ. While it's possible that we'll do it again, it's not likely.


The Virignia-specific polls have mostly leaned in favor of Obama, and currently Nate Silver has Virginia about 3:2 odds for going D this time.

It looks far from certain, but more likely than not.
 
2012-07-13 12:38:05 PM

mekki: Is Norfolk red?


I would say yes, mostly due to the Navy.
 
2012-07-13 12:45:12 PM

salvador.hardin: Rural = Good Republicans (conservative, thoughtful, earnest, actually work hard and understand what personal risks are about, appreciate and expect personal responsibility, god important, tradition important, family values important, government is a stranger coming by to tell you what to do)


I appreciate what you're trying to say, but have you ever really lived in a rural area?

I just moved from one last year, and Washington, DC is less corrupt than it was.
 
2012-07-13 01:06:00 PM

Magorn: as even the uber-right wing Washington Examiner pointed out, VA is basically lost to Romney. Not only is Obama already leading there by as many as 8 points, but there is dark horse that complicates things further for romeny. A native son, former Democratic and Republican Congressman Virgil Goode who is running for president on the Constitution Party ticket. He's only polling at about 10% in the state, but all 10% comes out of Romney's hide, not Obama's which then puts Obama up by "landslide" levels


A very "Goode" point; I'd forgotten about him. A few news stories indicate Goode's still not yet on the ballot, but it seems likely he'd at least get on. The PPP poll data linked to by that Examiner piece says not quite all of the 10% is from Romney voters, but it is about 8:1 from Romney.
 
2012-07-13 01:13:25 PM

The Homer Tax: I would say yes, mostly due to the Navy.


Bizarrely, the urban blue trumped the military presence in 2008.

coopercenterdemographics.files.wordpress.com
 
2012-07-13 01:15:53 PM

MasterThief: Aw, crap, I live in a swing state now? My vote actually counts?

OK, which of these two assholes do I despise less?


If you dont already know the answer to that question, you sound stupid enough to vote Republican.

/vote Republican
 
2012-07-13 02:23:20 PM

abb3w: The Homer Tax: I would say yes, mostly due to the Navy.

Bizarrely, the urban blue trumped the military presence in 2008.

[coopercenterdemographics.files.wordpress.com image 640x626]


Christ, Democrats are so huddle'd up now days. You'd think just by the geography that Virginia went to McCain by a Utah-like margin.
 
2012-07-13 02:28:15 PM

Wendy's Chili: dletter:

I don't know what the f*ck is going on in Michigan, but Obama isn't looking too hot in the polls. His policies have been very kind toward them, but the voters must be chalking up their recovery to their Republican governor's decision to take away black people's right to govern themselves.


Things are fine in michigan -

Michigan
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS DEM REP MARGIN
Polling average 47.0 43.5 Obama +3.5
Adjusted polling average 47.0 43.4 Obama +3.6
State fundamentals 50.4 40.5 Obama +9.9
Now-cast 48.1 42.7 Obama +5.4
Projected vote share ±6.5 51.9 46.5 Obama +5.4
Chance of winning 80% Obama 20% Romney
 
2012-07-13 02:32:55 PM

Clowns are a Ten: abb3w: The Homer Tax: I would say yes, mostly due to the Navy.

Bizarrely, the urban blue trumped the military presence in 2008.

[coopercenterdemographics.files.wordpress.com image 640x626]

Christ, Democrats are so huddle'd up now days. You'd think just by the geography that Virginia went to McCain by a Utah-like margin.


Population density, how does it work?

People who live near a lot of other (and usually different kinds) of people... vote more democratic. People whose like only having 5 neighbors in a 2 mile radius... vote more republican.
 
2012-07-13 02:35:23 PM

Clowns are a Ten: abb3w: The Homer Tax: I would say yes, mostly due to the Navy.

Bizarrely, the urban blue trumped the military presence in 2008.

[coopercenterdemographics.files.wordpress.com image 640x626]

Christ, Democrats are so huddle'd up now days. You'd think just by the geography that Virginia went to McCain by a Utah-like margin.


Speaking of Utah... Obama now has a new campaign strategy and he damn better well use it.

"Romney is going to take away your porn."

The color will drain out of the faces of the Red States so fast you'll think they were given a Calculus text book.

73%-27% victory for Obumner.
 
2012-07-13 03:08:19 PM

dletter: Population density, how does it work?


In VA, kind of like this:

coopercenterdemographics.files.wordpress.com
 
2012-07-13 03:28:01 PM
He played it smart in VA... started early investing there and had like 60+ field offices by the time election day rolled around. It would be pretty lulzy if Virginia is called for Obama again shortly after the polls close. Too bad my vote in Illinois doesn't mean shiat.
 
2012-07-13 04:50:02 PM

dletter: Clowns are a Ten: abb3w: The Homer Tax: I would say yes, mostly due to the Navy.

Bizarrely, the urban blue trumped the military presence in 2008.

[coopercenterdemographics.files.wordpress.com image 640x626]

Christ, Democrats are so huddle'd up now days. You'd think just by the geography that Virginia went to McCain by a Utah-like margin.

Population density, how does it work?

People who live near a lot of other (and usually different kinds) of people... vote more democratic. People whose like only having 5 neighbors in a 2 mile radius... vote more republican.


... which is what I implied... (or thought I did)

/don't make me feel dumb! I am not dumb!
 
2012-07-13 11:25:26 PM

Clowns are a Ten: dletter: Clowns are a Ten: abb3w: The Homer Tax: I would say yes, mostly due to the Navy.

Bizarrely, the urban blue trumped the military presence in 2008.

[coopercenterdemographics.files.wordpress.com image 640x626]

Christ, Democrats are so huddle'd up now days. You'd think just by the geography that Virginia went to McCain by a Utah-like margin.

Population density, how does it work?

People who live near a lot of other (and usually different kinds) of people... vote more democratic. People whose like only having 5 neighbors in a 2 mile radius... vote more republican.

... which is what I implied... (or thought I did)

/don't make me feel dumb! I am not dumb!


You sound 'rural'
 
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