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(BusinessWeek)   Five reasons we are definitely NOT in a recession   (businessweek.com) divider line 30
    More: Unlikely, Economic Cycle Research Institute, Lakshman Achuthan, data points, Institute for Supply Management, recession  
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1777 clicks; posted to Business » on 12 Jul 2012 at 8:51 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-07-12 09:17:44 AM
1. GDP growth is not negative.
END
 
2012-07-12 10:00:29 AM
Beat me to it +1
 
2012-07-12 10:03:36 AM
GDP is an aggregate.

It's entirely possible, for small sections of someones to be doing really well, and for the majority to be doing poorly, and still have a positive GDP.

As such, it's an entirely useless measure for what is happening to individuals economically... where people actually feel a recession.
 
2012-07-12 10:06:22 AM

jafiwam: GDP is an aggregate.

It's entirely possible, for small sections of someones to be doing really well, and for the majority to be doing poorly, and still have a positive GDP.

As such, it's an entirely useless measure for what is happening to individuals economically... where people actually feel a recession.


^^^That right there.
 
2012-07-12 10:12:56 AM

downstairs: jafiwam: GDP is an aggregate.

It's entirely possible, for small sections of someones to be doing really well, and for the majority to be doing poorly, and still have a positive GDP.

As such, it's an entirely useless measure for what is happening to individuals economically... where people actually feel a recession.

^^^That right there.


What's a better indicator?
 
2012-07-12 10:21:59 AM

jafiwam: GDP is an aggregate.

It's entirely possible, for small sections of someones to be doing really well, and for the majority to be doing poorly, and still have a positive GDP.

As such, it's an entirely useless measure for what is happening to individuals economically... where people actually feel a recession.


A recession is an agreed upon economic definition based on math. There are no feelings.

For the way people feel, we use the consumer confidence index.
 
2012-07-12 10:28:28 AM

downstairs: jafiwam: GDP is an aggregate.

It's entirely possible, for small sections of someones to be doing really well, and for the majority to be doing poorly, and still have a positive GDP.

As such, it's an entirely useless measure for what is happening to individuals economically... where people actually feel a recession.

^^^That right there.


Not to mention the GDP accounts for government spending, which really does not reflect anything about the economy.. especially when the government spending is coming via deficit spending.
 
2012-07-12 10:37:01 AM

MugzyBrown: downstairs: jafiwam: GDP is an aggregate.

It's entirely possible, for small sections of someones to be doing really well, and for the majority to be doing poorly, and still have a positive GDP.

As such, it's an entirely useless measure for what is happening to individuals economically... where people actually feel a recession.

^^^That right there.

Not to mention the GDP accounts for government spending, which really does not reflect anything about the economy.. especially when the government spending is coming via deficit spending.


WTF am I reading? If it's not one guy talking about his feelings it's another saying "if there's government then it's not the economy."

Fighter plane manufacturing doesn't reflect anything about the economy? Medicare payments to doctors and hospitals doesn't reflect anything about the economy? Social security checks spent on goods and services doesn't reflect anything about the economy?

Barakku Hussein Obongo catering a lunch doesn't reflect anything about the economy as in there is no transfer of goods and services in exchange for currency?

Get a grip, people. A recession has defined metrics. GDP has defined metrics. Saying "I don't like this" has no value.
 
2012-07-12 10:41:31 AM
GDP is above pre-recession levels. The difference is that companies haven't hired anyone as they've figured out that they can get one person to do two people's jobs at a 10% pay cut. Corporate profits are higher than they've ever been.
 
2012-07-12 10:46:30 AM

Rapmaster2000: WTF am I reading? If it's not one guy talking about his feelings it's another saying "if there's government then it's not the economy."

Fighter plane manufacturing doesn't reflect anything about the economy? Medicare payments to doctors and hospitals doesn't reflect anything about the economy? Social security checks spent on goods and services doesn't reflect anything about the economy?


No it doesn't because the real economy is about voluntary exchange of goods and serivces, not the government borrowing and spending money.

Via the GDP calculation, private consumption and investment could be tanking, but if the government decided to borrow abd purchase 50 Trillion typewriters, the GDP calculation could come out ahead of the previous quarter.

See, no recession! Look at that growth!
 
2012-07-12 10:51:20 AM

MugzyBrown: Via the GDP calculation, private consumption and investment could be tanking, but if the government decided to borrow abd purchase 50 Trillion typewriters, the GDP calculation could come out ahead of the previous quarter.

See, no recession! Look at that growth!


Except gov't spending as a percentage of GDP has stayed relatively flat:

Link

Want to pull some more theories out of your ass?
 
2012-07-12 10:56:24 AM
Except gov't spending as a percentage of GDP has stayed relatively flat:

Link

Want to pull some more theories out of your ass?


Did I say the current GDP would be negative today if not for gov't spending?

I'm just saying GDP as a metric is not very useful when discussing the health of an economy
 
2012-07-12 10:59:11 AM

MugzyBrown: Except gov't spending as a percentage of GDP has stayed relatively flat:

Link

Want to pull some more theories out of your ass?

Did I say the current GDP would be negative today if not for gov't spending?

I'm just saying GDP as a metric is not very useful when discussing the health of an economy


Then just say that and don't get into what is and what isn't "real" economics.

Anyway, do you have some better metrics we should be using? I would honestly and non-snarkily like to hear them.
 
2012-07-12 11:04:06 AM
I travel between Lexington and Louisville, Cincinnati or Dayton 5-6 times per month and I've seen a noticeable drop in the number of semi-trucks on those sections of I-64 and I-75/71 over the last 6-8 months. Might only be a regional thing but it certainly looks like the volume of goods companies are shipping has dropped significantly (or perhaps they've switched to rail cargo).
 
2012-07-12 11:08:09 AM

Rapmaster2000: Anyway, do you have some better metrics we should be using? I would honestly and non-snarkily like to hear them.


Well you can look at the other componets of the GDP, you can look at real unemployment numbers w/o excluding people you don't feel like counting anymore.

You can look at real inflation numbers without excluding things that are inconvenient to include.
 
2012-07-12 11:10:03 AM

MugzyBrown: Rapmaster2000: Anyway, do you have some better metrics we should be using? I would honestly and non-snarkily like to hear them.

Well you can look at the other componets of the GDP, you can look at real unemployment numbers w/o excluding people you don't feel like counting anymore.

You can look at real inflation numbers without excluding things that are inconvenient to include.


You have wasted my time.
 
2012-07-12 11:18:32 AM

MugzyBrown: I'm just saying GDP as a metric is not very useful when discussing the health of an economy


This may be the most retarded and ill-informed comment on economics I have ever come across on the internet.
 
2012-07-12 11:48:50 AM
This may be the most retarded and ill-informed comment on economics I have ever come across on the internet.

Link

Link

Link

Link
 
2012-07-12 12:52:20 PM

Debeo Summa Credo: downstairs: jafiwam: GDP is an aggregate.

It's entirely possible, for small sections of someones to be doing really well, and for the majority to be doing poorly, and still have a positive GDP.

As such, it's an entirely useless measure for what is happening to individuals economically... where people actually feel a recession.

^^^That right there.

What's a better indicator?


Penis size as determined from the comments below your post/above my post.
 
2012-07-12 02:06:59 PM
Worker's pay is up.

Tell me the name of this worker, who's pay is up. Cause he ain't me.
 
2012-07-12 02:15:27 PM

MugzyBrown: This may be the most retarded and ill-informed comment on economics I have ever come across on the internet.

Link

Link

Link

Link


*sigh*

OK, this is going to fall on deaf ears, but I do have a bit of background here with my BS in Economics. GDP is a useful statistic. Does it measure how well you're doing? No. Does it measure economic confidence? No. Does it measure a country's ability to repay bonds and loans? No. But, it does a bang up job of measuring the size of all economic transactions within a country's currency area. I suppose that's because it's what the GDP was meant to measure.

So, let me start tearing apart those links you sent me, and how they in no way back up your assertion of " I'm just saying GDP as a metric is not very useful when discussing the health of an economy."

Whatever you may think progress looks like - a rebounding stock market, a new house, a good raise - the governments of the world have long held the view that only one statistic, the measure of gross domestic product, can really show whether things seem to be getting better or getting worse

GDP was never claimed to do so. First "things" isn't a scientific description of any economic indicator of progress. Does it mean capital is being reinvested well? Does it mean capital is flowing into labor markets? No. It DOES mean capital is being, well capitalized and realized as profits. Growth in GDP is an indicator that capital is indeed flowing into markets, and the markets are broadly succeeding.

It is now widely recognized that GDP has many shortcomings as an indicator of social welfare.

Well, it was always recognized that way, seeing as how "market capitalization and realization" probably doesn't have much to do with social welfare distribution, beyond the rather strong correlation between large GDPs and widespread access to higher-grade durables and luxuries.

By focusing exclusively on final goods and services, the GDP framework lapses into a world of fantasy wherein goods emerge because of people's desires.

This is also in the running for the dumbest thing I have read on the internet today. No, we absolutely do not live in a capitalist economy where demand drives production. We obviously produce things by magic, and only some of those things are for market. The rest of the production goes to a more real world where people don't demand goods, services, and financial instruments.

One problem: A vocal group of analysts and economists isn't buying it.

Because as all Fark trolls know, the loudest voices are the most correct.

OK, so that was a cheap shot. Let's take another one from MSNBC.

GDP is a crucial variable in setting monetary policy, such as short-term interest rates, but critics say the effort to gather and calculate the data is underfunded, hobbled by government agency infighting and overly reliant on assumptions.

Oh, so the crux of their argument is that it IS a good statistic for measuring the need for capital liquidity for investment into production, but that the number is subject to error. Well, that's actually a valid area of concern, but doesn't really address the idea that GDP isn't a good indicator of what it's intended to do. It just means the method of collecting and calculating it is flawed.

So, to finish off, I'll go back to MSNBC. There's a reason why most conservatives hate on the place, and it's because they DO say the dumbest things on the internet, for example "GDP is supposed to be a summary of the domestic economy. So a $30 copay to a West Virginia internist, a $3,000 rental payment for a Cleveland office and a $30 million shipment of U.S.-built backhoes from the Port of Los Angeles are all supposed to be baked in."

Well, yes. Because when you're measuring all transactions in a currency zone, it's helpful to include all transactions. Cherry picking some things you don't feel is important goes against it's very definition. So I apologize, you didn't say the dumbest thing I've read on the internet. MSNBC gets that award.
 
2012-07-12 03:47:18 PM
Why, why does this all matter? Economies expand and contract. And indeed, at some point, we are really going to have to stop expanding. The invisible hand of the market is a real bastard and when you through in some politics and people/corporations who only value profit, we are just setting ourselves up for catastrophe.

It irritates me to no end that every day I have to hear how the Dow is up or down. Grrrrrr
 
2012-07-12 03:56:46 PM

arcas: I travel between Lexington and Louisville, Cincinnati or Dayton 5-6 times per month and I've seen a noticeable drop in the number of semi-trucks on those sections of I-64 and I-75/71 over the last 6-8 months. Might only be a regional thing but it certainly looks like the volume of goods companies are shipping has dropped significantly (or perhaps they've switched to rail cargo).


They could be avoid all the road work, or not wanting to travel on the brent spence bridge(i wish, farking trucks on that bridge) might be something to it, or might just be a shift in what you see based on time of day, etc.

I travel from nky to north of cincy every day. seems like the same as it always is to me.
 
2012-07-12 05:13:17 PM

Pick: Worker's pay is up.

Tell me the name of this worker, who's pay is up. Cause he ain't me.


I got a raise yesterday.

/gym, 26 min...
//just really lucky to be with a good company
 
2012-07-12 05:45:20 PM

Debeo Summa Credo: downstairs: jafiwam: GDP is an aggregate.

It's entirely possible, for small sections of someones to be doing really well, and for the majority to be doing poorly, and still have a positive GDP.

As such, it's an entirely useless measure for what is happening to individuals economically... where people actually feel a recession.

^^^That right there.

What's a better indicator?


I honestly don't know. But I can tell you from all of my experiences running a business, in touch with hundreds of clients, in many industries... we're still in a recession.

Or, if "recession" isn't a term you'd like to use... the economy is still farked. Bad.
 
2012-07-12 05:53:03 PM

K.B.O. Winston: Pick: Worker's pay is up.

Tell me the name of this worker, who's pay is up. Cause he ain't me.

I got a raise yesterday.

/gym, 26 min...
//just really lucky to be with a good company


I'm getting a raise this year, but then again I'm getting close to hitting 9 hours today and only got a chance to screw off for maybe 15 minutes all day (that, and what I'm doing now constitutes my break. I think I'm the only one here who cares how much time I spend on break - might have something to do with the 9+ hour thing). My wife just got 3%. But then again, we are both sort of the "last few left standing" at work after years of layoffs. The live wood doesn't get completely shiat on - not to say everyone who was laid off was dead wood, but the one that were are long gone.
 
2012-07-13 02:32:08 AM

SevenizGud: 1. GDP growth is not negative.
END


Adjusted for real inflation or alleged inflation?
 
2012-07-13 02:57:13 AM
We're not in a recession, as GDP is not negative growth for two consecutive quarters, but the growth is far weaker than it should be in an expansionary stage. Almost like there's a city full of assholes creating uncertainly with fiscal and currency markets....
 
2012-07-13 03:10:41 AM

K.B.O. Winston: Pick: Worker's pay is up.

Tell me the name of this worker, who's pay is up. Cause he ain't me.

I got a raise yesterday.

/gym, 26 min...
//just really lucky to be with a good company


Mrs Krieghund brought home double her normal quarterly bonus, which is based on sales.

/she wants to join the Y with that extra cash...
 
2012-07-13 04:15:29 AM

Krieghund: /she wants to join the Y with that extra cash...


I like to eat at the Y.
 
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