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(AEI Ideas)   Let's take a wee look back at the Obama Administration economic predictions with and without the Stimulus. 5.3% unemployment? That would be absolutely Bush league   (aei-ideas.org) divider line 164
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2450 clicks; posted to Politics » on 06 Jul 2012 at 12:09 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-07-06 10:33:43 AM
I wholeheartedly support Republicans taking up the banner of George W Bush's economic record.
 
2012-07-06 10:38:57 AM
Wait, you mean economists got a prediction wrong?????? Say it ain't so!!! Economic predictions are about as useful as prayer.

Link
 
2012-07-06 10:39:17 AM
The American Enterprise Institute is not "Some Guy", Submitter.
 
2012-07-06 10:40:33 AM
It's too bad our great leader spent 1.5 years cramming a bloated welfare plan down the throats of the American people when he should have been focused on jobs and the economy.
 
2012-07-06 10:40:45 AM
whoo boy, freeper friday is coming fast and hard this morning.

a) the obama administration underestimated the severity of the bush recession
b) they revised their estimates accordingly and admitted making a mistake (when was the last time you heard a republican admit a mistake?)
c) without the stimulus (which every single republican in the house voted against), unemployment would've peaked well north of 11 percent, perhaps nearer 16 percent

so, yes, obama predicted that the recovery would greet us as liberators. turns out it requires quite a fight. pretty sad, though, that the enemy we're fighting is the goddamned republican party.
 
2012-07-06 10:40:57 AM
Let's take a look at who we could have had as our President and VP instead.

Yeesh. Yeah. Obama and Biden still look great.
 
2012-07-06 10:49:57 AM

BillCo: It's too bad our great leader spent 1.5 years cramming a bloated welfare plan down the throats of the American people when he should have been focused on jobs and the economy.


I love "cramming". Love it, love it. It isn't like health care reform wasn't a major plank on Obama's platform. Who could have saw it coming?

As far as the economy, what percentage of it is related to health care? 20%? Totally unrelated, apparently.

Republicans are children with vision no further than the end of their noses.
 
2012-07-06 10:58:42 AM
That assumed immediate implementation and without crippling it with minimally productive tax cuts, both of which happened. Also, that prediction was made before the crippling losses of 4Q 2008 that were far worse than anticipated.
 
2012-07-06 10:59:04 AM
I was thinking 15-20% and deflation without the stimulus. Of course, I probably underestimated the motivation that would have been provided to 30 million American workers feeding their families with bark scraped from trees. We aren't French, after all. Instead of rioting, we probably would have set to work and founded millions more of successful businesses, bringing a new dawn to America.
 
2012-07-06 10:59:23 AM
And Republicans have done nothing to encourage job growth. Instead, they've focused on attacking women and gays.

The Teabaggers who came to power in 2010 only made things worse by deliberately refusing to raise the debt ceiling until the last possible second, causing the U.S. credit rating to be downgraded. Now they're pulling the same shiat again.
 
2012-07-06 11:03:45 AM
i149.photobucket.com
 
2012-07-06 11:21:41 AM
Looks like the economy would have recovered much better if Obama had just done nothing. He really messed things up.
 
2012-07-06 11:22:39 AM
I disagree with Obama's economic solutions for a variety of reasons. But I can't help but point out that if his economic team got the dark-blue line wrong, they could just as easily have gotten the light-blue line wrong. Yet it seems as if the politically expedient thing is to pretend the light-blue line was an objective Truth upon which every economist agreed, and it's the dark-blue line alone that was wrong.
 
2012-07-06 11:36:21 AM

SkinnyHead: Looks like the economy would have recovered much better if Obama had just done nothing. He really messed things up.


wow, that's just farking stupid - even for you, SH. most economists think that unemployment would've peaked at between 11 and 16 percent had we not passed the ARRA.

the only "do nothing" thing that might've worked would be to let the bush tax cuts expire - all of them. but that would've effectively raised taxes on the middle class during a tenuous recovery, and that wasn't an option. now we are in recovery, keynesian theory (which, unlike supply-side theory, has actually worked in the past) dictates we start paying this shiat back, which means letting them expire now.
 
2012-07-06 11:59:38 AM

djkutch: I love "cramming". Love it, love it. It isn't like health care reform wasn't a major plank on Obama's platform. Who could have saw it coming?


Elections have consequences, or so I hear.
 
2012-07-06 12:12:46 PM

Communist_Manifesto: Wait, you mean economists got a prediction wrong?????? Say it ain't so!!! Economic predictions are about as useful as prayer.

Link


"The only thing worst than an armchair economist...is a professional economist."
 
2012-07-06 12:15:06 PM

SkinnyHead: Looks like the economy would have recovered much better if Obama had just done nothing.


What exactly are you looking at?
 
2012-07-06 12:15:20 PM
This shiat again?

These projections were made in January of 09. The 4th quarter GDP contraction was later revised up. And later still the overall 2008 job losses were revised up. In short, the projections were made off of the best available data at the time and that data was an underestimation of how bad things were.

So what you're arguing, Subby, is that the stimulus plan should have been even bigger.
 
2012-07-06 12:17:23 PM
I, too, am shocked that a stimulus package passed after unemployment numbers went past the predicted high unemployment was not somehow able to go back in time and be instituted in mid-December.
 
2012-07-06 12:17:25 PM

Arkanaut: SkinnyHead: Looks like the economy would have recovered much better if Obama had just done nothing.

What exactly are you looking at?


If the past is any indication, his anus.
 
2012-07-06 12:17:54 PM

Arkanaut: SkinnyHead: Looks like the economy would have recovered much better if Obama had just done nothing.

What exactly are you looking at?


Knowing Skinnyhead? The lining of his own colon.
 
2012-07-06 12:18:02 PM

Aarontology: I wholeheartedly support Republicans taking up the banner of George W Bush's economic record.


FTFA: If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office-65.7% then vs. 63.8% today-the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.9%. Even if you take into account that the LFP should be declining as America ages, the unemployment rate would be 10.5%.

Do you really think the unemployed gives a shiatt about a guy who hasn't been president in over 3 years?
 
2012-07-06 12:18:28 PM

FlashHarry: SkinnyHead: Looks like the economy would have recovered much better if Obama had just done nothing. He really messed things up.

wow, that's just farking stupid - even for you, SH. most economists think that unemployment would've peaked at between 11 and 16 percent had we not passed the ARRA.

the only "do nothing" thing that might've worked would be to let the bush tax cuts expire - all of them. but that would've effectively raised taxes on the middle class during a tenuous recovery, and that wasn't an option. now we are in recovery, keynesian theory (which, unlike supply-side theory, has actually worked in the past) dictates we start paying this shiat back, which means letting them expire now.


But look at what Obama promised. Obama's graph warned that unemployment would go up to 9% if he didn't get his stimulus plan. He promised that spending $800 billion on stimulus would hold unemployment under 8%. That didn't happen. By his own prediction, the stimulus plan made things worse. We would be under 6% right now if it wasn't for Obama failed stimulus plan.
 
2012-07-06 12:18:46 PM
At this point, we need a Chinese style of government and managed economy.

/sorry
 
2012-07-06 12:21:19 PM

Cat Food Sandwiches: Aarontology: I wholeheartedly support Republicans taking up the banner of George W Bush's economic record.

FTFA: If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office-65.7% then vs. 63.8% today-the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.9%. Even if you take into account that the LFP should be declining as America ages, the unemployment rate would be 10.5%.

Do you really think the unemployed gives a shiatt about a guy who hasn't been president in over 3 years?


This above, No one cares who the President was 3.5 years ago. They care about what this guy, Obama, promised and what he delivered.
 
2012-07-06 12:21:50 PM

BillCo: It's too bad our great leader spent 1.5 years cramming a bloated welfare plan down the throats of the American people when he should have been focused on jobs and the economy.


You sound awfully bushed Bill.
 
2012-07-06 12:22:13 PM

SkinnyHead: FlashHarry: SkinnyHead: Looks like the economy would have recovered much better if Obama had just done nothing. He really messed things up.

wow, that's just farking stupid - even for you, SH. most economists think that unemployment would've peaked at between 11 and 16 percent had we not passed the ARRA.

the only "do nothing" thing that might've worked would be to let the bush tax cuts expire - all of them. but that would've effectively raised taxes on the middle class during a tenuous recovery, and that wasn't an option. now we are in recovery, keynesian theory (which, unlike supply-side theory, has actually worked in the past) dictates we start paying this shiat back, which means letting them expire now.

But look at what Obama promised. Obama's graph warned that unemployment would go up to 9% if he didn't get his stimulus plan. He promised that spending $800 billion on stimulus would hold unemployment under 8%. That didn't happen. By his own prediction, the stimulus plan made things worse. We would be under 6% right now if it wasn't for Obama failed stimulus plan.


Yes. That is precisely what can be inferred from that prediction. Its not at all being disingenuous. In no way are you being a complete jackass.
 
2012-07-06 12:22:52 PM
The best thing the government can do in the face of a recession or economic downturn is NOTHING. Spending other people money - especially borrowed money - just makes it worse.
 
2012-07-06 12:23:56 PM
We need to subsidize and spur R&D and investment towards developing the quantum computing power necessary to simulate alternate timelines and definitively and conclusively prove that Obama made the wrong decisions at every point in his presidency.
 
2012-07-06 12:24:59 PM

SkinnyHead: FlashHarry: SkinnyHead: Looks like the economy would have recovered much better if Obama had just done nothing. He really messed things up.

wow, that's just farking stupid - even for you, SH. most economists think that unemployment would've peaked at between 11 and 16 percent had we not passed the ARRA.

the only "do nothing" thing that might've worked would be to let the bush tax cuts expire - all of them. but that would've effectively raised taxes on the middle class during a tenuous recovery, and that wasn't an option. now we are in recovery, keynesian theory (which, unlike supply-side theory, has actually worked in the past) dictates we start paying this shiat back, which means letting them expire now.

But look at what Obama promised. Obama's graph warned that unemployment would go up to 9% if he didn't get his stimulus plan. He promised that spending $800 billion on stimulus would hold unemployment under 8%. That didn't happen. By his own prediction, the stimulus plan made things worse. We would be under 6% right now if it wasn't for Obama failed stimulus plan.


SkinnyHead: FlashHarry: SkinnyHead: Looks like the economy would have recovered much better if Obama had just done nothing. He really messed things up.

wow, that's just farking stupid - even for you, SH. most economists think that unemployment would've peaked at between 11 and 16 percent had we not passed the ARRA.

the only "do nothing" thing that might've worked would be to let the bush tax cuts expire - all of them. but that would've effectively raised taxes on the middle class during a tenuous recovery, and that wasn't an option. now we are in recovery, keynesian theory (which, unlike supply-side theory, has actually worked in the past) dictates we start paying this shiat back, which means letting them expire now.

But look at what Obama promised. Obama's graph warned that unemployment would go up to 9% if he didn't get his stimulus plan. He promised that spending $800 billion on stimulus would hold unemployment under 8%. That didn't happen. By his own prediction, the stimulus plan made things worse. We would be under 6% right now if it wasn't for Obama failed stimulus plan.


img209.imageshack.us
 
2012-07-06 12:25:37 PM

Wicked Chinchilla: SkinnyHead: FlashHarry: SkinnyHead: Looks like the economy would have recovered much better if Obama had just done nothing. He really messed things up.

wow, that's just farking stupid - even for you, SH. most economists think that unemployment would've peaked at between 11 and 16 percent had we not passed the ARRA.

the only "do nothing" thing that might've worked would be to let the bush tax cuts expire - all of them. but that would've effectively raised taxes on the middle class during a tenuous recovery, and that wasn't an option. now we are in recovery, keynesian theory (which, unlike supply-side theory, has actually worked in the past) dictates we start paying this shiat back, which means letting them expire now.

But look at what Obama promised. Obama's graph warned that unemployment would go up to 9% if he didn't get his stimulus plan. He promised that spending $800 billion on stimulus would hold unemployment under 8%. That didn't happen. By his own prediction, the stimulus plan made things worse. We would be under 6% right now if it wasn't for Obama failed stimulus plan.

Yes. That is precisely what can be inferred from that prediction. Its not at all being disingenuous. In no way are you being a complete jackass.


How is repeating what this President promised being a Jackass? Why are you so angry?
 
2012-07-06 12:27:16 PM
I blame Obama for not signing the job creating legislation that reached his desk in the last 18 months.
 
2012-07-06 12:27:56 PM
Hmmm, "some guy" is saying this? This sounds like something NewsBusters or FloorHumper Daily would say. Let's mouse over that link... ahhh, yes, the American Enterprise Institute. Sneaky mods, tricks are for kids!
 
2012-07-06 12:28:17 PM
Without the stimulus, we'd be absolutely power-f*cked right now.

We know this, because the right-wing alternative is exactly what f*cked us in the first place.

The argument that since the stimulus didn't have the best possible outcome, that we thus should return to digging our own graves with supply-side nonsense policies, is the epitome of wall-licking retarded.
 
2012-07-06 12:28:56 PM

Rashnu: We need to subsidize and spur R&D and investment towards developing the quantum computing power necessary to simulate alternate timelines and definitively and conclusively prove that Obama made the wrong decisions at every point in his presidency.


You don't need a super computer to prove that. The proof of the pudding is in the eating.
 
2012-07-06 12:29:06 PM
poop
 
2012-07-06 12:29:43 PM
Too bad about McCain Palin losing. We'd have boots on the ground in Libya looking for Qaddafi, operation Georgian Freedom, a large troop buildup on the Iran border and Osama would still be alive.

A mandatory draft would be required for our military operations freeing up a large number of jobs domestically. Unemployment would be near an all time low.
 
2012-07-06 12:30:19 PM

BillCo: It's too bad our great leader spent 1.5 years cramming a bloated welfare plan down the throats of the American people when he should have been focused on jobs and the economy.


And yet, you'll be the first to attack him for saving the American auto industry.

F*ck you.
 
2012-07-06 12:31:17 PM

Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: The American Enterprise Institute is not "Some Guy", Submitter.


Judging by the comments on that article, it might as well be.
 
2012-07-06 12:31:39 PM

FlashHarry: whoo boy, freeper friday is coming fast and hard this morning.

a) the obama administration underestimated the severity of the bush recession
b) they revised their estimates accordingly and admitted making a mistake (when was the last time you heard a republican admit a mistake?)
c) without the stimulus (which every single republican in the house voted against), unemployment would've peaked well north of 11 percent, perhaps nearer 16 percent

so, yes, obama predicted that the recovery would greet us as liberators. turns out it requires quite a fight. pretty sad, though, that the enemy we're fighting is the goddamned republican party.


Let's not forget that Europe's woes are a drag on our recovery.
 
2012-07-06 12:35:32 PM

LarryDan43: Too bad about McCain Palin losing. We'd have boots on the ground in Libya looking for Qaddafi, operation Georgian Freedom, a large troop buildup on the Iran border and Osama would still be alive.

A mandatory draft would be required for our military operations freeing up a large number of jobs domestically. Unemployment would be near an all time low.


Don't leave out Yemen and Somalia.
 
2012-07-06 12:35:39 PM

Cat Food Sandwiches: Aarontology: I wholeheartedly support Republicans taking up the banner of George W Bush's economic record.

FTFA: If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office-65.7% then vs. 63.8% today-the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.9%. Even if you take into account that the LFP should be declining as America ages, the unemployment rate would be 10.5%.

Do you really think the unemployed gives a shiatt about a guy who hasn't been president in over 3 years?


how about IF the size of the labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when George Washington took office, then what would the unemployment rate be?
 
2012-07-06 12:35:52 PM
man, if only Obama could be like Bush and allow the largest terrorist attack on american soil to take place on his watch... then invaded a country that had nothing to do with it spending trillions of dollars WHILST cutting taxes.

history's greatest monster...
 
2012-07-06 12:36:56 PM

theknuckler_33: FlashHarry: whoo boy, freeper friday is coming fast and hard this morning.

a) the obama administration underestimated the severity of the bush recession
b) they revised their estimates accordingly and admitted making a mistake (when was the last time you heard a republican admit a mistake?)
c) without the stimulus (which every single republican in the house voted against), unemployment would've peaked well north of 11 percent, perhaps nearer 16 percent

so, yes, obama predicted that the recovery would greet us as liberators. turns out it requires quite a fight. pretty sad, though, that the enemy we're fighting is the goddamned republican party.

Let's not forget that Europe's woes are a drag on our recovery.


All of the above does not matter to the average voter. All they care about is how the economy is doing right now and if they have work. You can scream every prediction there was and say see its better. It is not better to most of the American people and that is Obama's problem in November. I don't know if he will win or lose but if the economy does not get any better anytime soon it doesn't look good.
 
2012-07-06 12:37:02 PM

FlashHarry: SkinnyHead: Looks like the economy would have recovered much better if Obama had just done nothing. He really messed things up.

wow, that's just farking stupid - even for you, SH. most economists think that unemployment would've peaked at between 11 and 16 percent had we not passed the ARRA.

the only "do nothing" thing that might've worked would be to let the bush tax cuts expire - all of them. but that would've effectively raised taxes on the middle class during a tenuous recovery, and that wasn't an option. now we are in recovery, keynesian theory (which, unlike supply-side theory, has actually worked in the past) dictates we start paying this shiat back, which means letting them expire now.


Real Unemployment rate is currently ~15%:
Link
 
2012-07-06 12:38:21 PM
When all your predictions turn out to be wrong, people should stop listening to your predictions. Democrats just can't accept the blame for their failures.

They're the guy who when asked "what his biggest flaw is" responds with how they're just too darn awesome.
 
2012-07-06 12:39:31 PM

Mrbogey: When all your predictions turn out to be wrong, people should stop listening to your predictions. Democrats just can't accept the blame for their failures.

They're the guy who when asked "what his biggest flaw is" responds with how they're just too darn awesome.


Is that like "they will greet us as liberators"?

Or is that more like "the war will pay for itself"?

Or, perhaps I'm confused, but maybe it is "I want Osama dead or alive?"

Please let me know
 
2012-07-06 12:40:05 PM

Arkanaut: SkinnyHead: Looks like the economy would have recovered much better if Obama had just done nothing.

What exactly are you looking at?


probably some undigested fortune cookie residue next to his colon polyps
 
2012-07-06 12:40:21 PM

FlashHarry: c) without the stimulus (which every single republican in the house voted against), unemployment would've peaked well north of 11 percent, perhaps nearer 16 percent


^^^ this is what Obama apologists actually believe ^^^^


/there is no way to measure a "job saved". When you factor underemployment and others, you see that today's unemployment is really way north of 8.2%. Who here really believes the government reports?
 
2012-07-06 12:41:09 PM

praymantis: theknuckler_33: FlashHarry: whoo boy, freeper friday is coming fast and hard this morning.

a) the obama administration underestimated the severity of the bush recession
b) they revised their estimates accordingly and admitted making a mistake (when was the last time you heard a republican admit a mistake?)
c) without the stimulus (which every single republican in the house voted against), unemployment would've peaked well north of 11 percent, perhaps nearer 16 percent

so, yes, obama predicted that the recovery would greet us as liberators. turns out it requires quite a fight. pretty sad, though, that the enemy we're fighting is the goddamned republican party.

Let's not forget that Europe's woes are a drag on our recovery.

All of the above does not matter to the average voter. All they care about is how the economy is doing right now and if they have work. You can scream every prediction there was and say see its better. It is not better to most of the American people and that is Obama's problem in November. I don't know if he will win or lose but if the economy does not get any better anytime soon it doesn't look good.


Do you have anything to support this assertion, or are you going by your gut instinct? All indicators right now look very good for Obama.
 
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