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(Barron's)   A picture may be worth a thousand words, but the Chinese economy is worth about as much as an empty warehouse in the middle of nowhere   (online.barrons.com ) divider line
    More: Interesting, Chinese, hard landing, Great China Growth Story, high-speed trains, RAND Corp., national champions, triumphalism, diminishing returns  
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7818 clicks; posted to Business » on 03 Jul 2012 at 1:00 PM (4 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-07-03 09:34:08 AM  
What? You mean they won't maintain a 20% growth rate and pass the US in a couple of years and we should all run around with our hair on fire as this means the End has Come?
 
2012-07-03 09:39:45 AM  
Bullshiat, subby. All the investment banks have been telling us for the last 3-4 years that China's economy is unstoppable and will keep growing indefinitely until it absorbs and becomes one with all other economies. I suppose you now want us to believe those bankers were incapable of making a cogent analysis because they were overpowered and consumed by greed? Not this time, subby! The world will not fall for your lies this time and falsely persecute those noble veterans of Wall Street on the flimsy basis of your lies!

Good day, sir!
 
2012-07-03 11:46:05 AM  
What does Scott Adams think about this?
 
2012-07-03 01:06:10 PM  
How about "worth less than a truckload of dead rats in a tampon factory"?

www.wearysloth.com
 
2012-07-03 01:11:45 PM  
This will not please the Clinton's. They did sell us out to China not to have them run the world.
 
2012-07-03 01:13:01 PM  
If only there were some sort of artifacts for that warehouse.
 
2012-07-03 01:19:44 PM  
imagonyx123 2012-07-03 01:06:10 PM

How about "worth less than a truckload of dead rats in a tampon factory"?

No, no, no. That phrase correctly applies to Nemo's Brother here.

The slanty-eyed yella bastards to whom we've outsourced are jerbs actually do something useful during their existence.
 
2012-07-03 01:20:09 PM  
China is a paper dragon.

/ I've been saying this for a while.
 
2012-07-03 01:21:35 PM  
But China will grow forever. Like housing, gold, and Beanie Babies.
 
2012-07-03 01:24:02 PM  

WelldeadLink: If only there were some sort of artifacts for that warehouse.


Well it does have John Candy's jock strap, John Belushi's blow, and Chris Farley's last hooker. Those count right?
 
2012-07-03 01:30:30 PM  

WelldeadLink: If only there were some sort of artifacts for that warehouse.


They've got Top Men on it. Top. Men.
 
2012-07-03 01:42:47 PM  

Snarcoleptic_Hoosier: But China will grow forever. Like housing, gold, and Beanie Babies.


You left out Gulf War trading cards.
 
2012-07-03 01:46:39 PM  
Hey, China's going to need somewhere to store all the extra people until they are ready for processing.
 
2012-07-03 02:01:53 PM  
1. Chinese workers are getting too expensive and the likes of Foxconn are replacing them with robots
2. We're all crapped out. A lot of stuff that China makes is good enough. We're replacing broken stuff, but not replacing working stuff so much now. I know a lot of people with 5 year old laptops because frankly, they're good enough.
 
2012-07-03 02:21:27 PM  

Kittypie070: imagonyx123 2012-07-03 01:06:10 PM

How about "worth less than a truckload of dead rats in a tampon factory"?

No, no, no. That phrase correctly applies to Nemo's Brother here.

The slanty-eyed yella bastards to whom we've outsourced are jerbs actually do something useful during their existence.


So Clinton did not sell us out to China? Just curious.
 
2012-07-03 02:24:21 PM  
An economy that is especially dependent on exports is especially vulnerable in a global recession: a special report by noted economist Ric Romero.
 
das
2012-07-03 02:44:38 PM  
Wait!! Do they have Japan, inc's permission to slow down???
 
2012-07-03 02:55:45 PM  

farkeruk: 1. Chinese workers are getting too expensive and the likes of Foxconn are replacing them with robots
2. We're all crapped out. A lot of stuff that China makes is good enough. We're replacing broken stuff, but not replacing working stuff so much now. I know a lot of people with 5 year old laptops because frankly, they're good enough.


You mean there's a limit to America's consumption of cheap Chinese knick-knacks? That's unpossible!
 
2012-07-03 03:19:46 PM  
I think everyone with half a brain predicted this happening. My computer is several years old, but still works just fine. My car is a 1996 and still works fine. Also, the various items in my house work fine. I dont buy cheap shiat because I know its going to go bad and end up costing more long term. Many people have been doing this now for awhile so the demand for cheap crap is dwindling to the point to where if all you make is cheap crap, people arent going to buy it when they can wait another payday for the extra 10-20 bucks to get something that is going to last much longer.
 
2012-07-03 03:21:30 PM  

Lucky LaRue: Bullshiat, subby. All the investment banks have been telling us for the last 3-4 years that China's economy is unstoppable and will keep growing indefinitely until it absorbs and becomes one with all other economies. I suppose you now want us to believe those bankers were incapable of making a cogent analysis because they were overpowered and consumed by greed? Not this time, subby! The world will not fall for your lies this time and falsely persecute those noble veterans of Wall Street on the flimsy basis of your lies!

Good day, sir!


Next thing you'll try to tell me is that a home's value always increases.
 
2012-07-03 03:30:03 PM  
8% growth is still decent.
 
2012-07-03 03:31:52 PM  
China was never going to surpass the US economy. Everything that's been said about China in the last decade was being said about Japan in the 80s.

You can't maintain a spectacular growth rate indefinitely, and the things you do to try to keep it going artificially will end up biting you in the ass.
 
2012-07-03 03:44:17 PM  
FTFA: "...fixed-asset orgy."

completeoutrage.files.wordpress.com

/obligatory
 
2012-07-03 03:50:05 PM  

groppet: Snarcoleptic_Hoosier: But China will grow forever. Like housing, gold, and Beanie Babies.

You left out Gulf War trading cards.


Fark you. With the 25th anniversary of desert storm coming up in a few years, my Schwarzkopf card's value is going to shoot up like a patriot missile!
 
2012-07-03 03:56:46 PM  

Mentat: What does Scott Adams think about this?


+1 you funny. you make me raff.
 
2012-07-03 04:00:16 PM  
High energy prices combined with a credit bubble in the West. How's that unsustainable?
 
2012-07-03 04:18:00 PM  
If the Chinese economy tanks, the proletariat will become unhappy.

They will have to send in the tanks again.

www.barewalls.com
 
2012-07-03 04:22:51 PM  
Been saying it for ages: China = 1990s Japan. Same sorts of banking problems (i.e., garbage loans all over the place).
 
2012-07-03 04:30:41 PM  
"A high-speed train in Beijing: a technical marvel, but its fares can't cover its costs."

Unlike...

The airlines?
Public Roads?
 
2012-07-03 04:40:04 PM  

farkeruk: 1. Chinese workers are getting too expensive and the likes of Foxconn are replacing them with robots
2. We're all crapped out. A lot of stuff that China makes is good enough. We're replacing broken stuff, but not replacing working stuff so much now. I know a lot of people with 5 year old laptops because frankly, they're good enough.


The problem is more fundamental than anything concerning their ability to manufacture crap. Their banks have a cultural habit of giving out loans based on individuals' social connections, rather than business viability. This results in bad loans.

The writing has been on the wall for ages. Japan fixed these same problems when their economy collapsed. China has not learned their lesson.
 
2012-07-03 04:46:22 PM  

SacriliciousBeerSwiller: The problem is more fundamental than anything concerning their ability to manufacture crap. Their banks have a cultural habit of giving out loans based on individuals' social connections, rather than business viability. This results in bad loans.


They also have an ungodly massive housing bubble. They've been building entire towns full of empty houses just to fuel growth. China has all the problems of the western housing market of the mid-00s with the added shenanigans of communist central planning.
 
2012-07-03 04:53:58 PM  
Subby could have saved some wordspace just by comparing the Chinese economy to his Mother's vagina.
 
2012-07-03 05:08:28 PM  

imontheinternet: China was never going to surpass the US economy.


It's not that inconceivable, since they have four times the population of the US; if they can get to the point where the average Chinese makes about $12,000 - $13,000 per year they would be overtaking the US in terms of overall GDP. But it's almost impossible to make that happen using their current strategy, which is largely focused on pushing exports to the US, Europe, and Japan, all of which are growing slowly these days. They would have to shift gears to focus more on consumers at home, and on building actual, lasting infrastructure instead of raising a building one day and tearing it down the next.
 
2012-07-03 05:19:14 PM  

SultanofSchwing: Subby could have saved some wordspace just by comparing the Chinese economy to his Mother's vagina.


I didn't know the Chinese economy was capable of ripping off a man's member or smelled of VD.

/Ducks
 
2012-07-03 05:20:22 PM  

Arkanaut: They would have to shift gears to focus more on consumers at home, and on building actual, lasting infrastructure instead of raising a building one day and tearing it down the next.


according to a snippet i heard on the radio this AM, they virtually rebuild all of their cities on a 10 year cycle right now. infrastructure, buildings, housing, etc. not sure if they were doing this because they needed to (they were such crap they are already falling apart) or if its more of a "make-work" thing they do to encourage "employment" because the guest didn't go to deeply into it, but that seemed pretty freaking aggressive to me
 
2012-07-03 05:22:07 PM  

Moopy Mac: "A high-speed train in Beijing: a technical marvel, but its fares can't cover its cost


We'll be sending Scott Walker over to look into that...
 
2012-07-03 05:38:11 PM  
I wouldn't worry too much about China, they're poisoning their own citizens so badly that their life expectancy is going to start dropping significantly in about 10 years, I predict cancer being prevalent in people in their 40's in China by time I hit that age. You can't pollute without consequence.

/this cancer prediction is assuming that the water wars do not wipe out most of the population.
 
2012-07-03 05:42:05 PM  

tlchwi02: according to a snippet i heard on the radio this AM, they virtually rebuild all of their cities on a 10 year cycle right now. infrastructure, buildings, housing, etc. not sure if they were doing this because they needed to (they were such crap they are already falling apart) or if its more of a "make-work" thing they do to encourage "employment" because the guest didn't go to deeply into it, but that seemed pretty freaking aggressive to me


From what I hear, it's a little bit of both. Apparently there's a law that says if someone acquires land, they have to build on it within a very short time, or else ownership reverts back to the central government. Supposedly it's to prevent speculation, but instead you get this ridiculous amount of building activity that happens, often without the proper surveying and safety measures that you'd usually see in developed countries. There are also a lot of migrant workers who travel to the cities to find work, most of whom are dirt-poor and uneducated, so I'm sure the authorities are aware of what would happen if they lay idle for an extended period of time.
 
2012-07-03 05:49:47 PM  

Arkanaut: There are also a lot of migrant workers who travel to the cities to find work, most of whom are dirt-poor and uneducated, so I'm sure the authorities are aware of what would happen if they lay idle for an extended period of time.


What, did something bad happen between the Chinese urban elite and their agrarian population at some point, or something? I can't imagine.

/it's gonna happen again...just watch
 
2012-07-03 06:16:23 PM  

Asako: 8% growth is still decent.


In a stable economy it's damn near too hot. The problem is how the expectations are structured. When the government and investors make spending plans according to 20% annual growth, 8% is a disaster. The problem is either trying to find work for a LOT of low-skilled laborers to maintain order, or rentier class skimming way too much money off the top. Likely both.

It's not like this is exclusive to China. While not nearly as drastic, a lot of America's political problems are rooted in various budgets, from profit targets to entitlement spending, that not only predict but rely on recurring exponential growth. And not just growth, but growth above a certain, unsustainable rate. A 5th-grader can look at a damn GDP graph and predict not only that recessions happen but how often yet Wall Street and D.C. still act shocked every time because they're paid to not look past the next three months, which invariably predict. . . exponential growth.
 
2012-07-03 06:25:37 PM  

dragonchild: It's not like this is exclusive to China. While not nearly as drastic, a lot of America's political problems are rooted in various budgets, from profit targets to entitlement spending, that not only predict but rely on recurring exponential growth. And not just growth, but growth above a certain, unsustainable rate. A 5th-grader can look at a damn GDP graph and predict not only that recessions happen but how often yet Wall Street and D.C. still act shocked every time because they're paid to not look past the next three months, which invariably predict. . . exponential growth.


I've said it before, I'll say it again.

Somewhere in the 80s the goal shifted from profit to profit growth, and now we're all boned.
 
2012-07-03 07:32:38 PM  
I had figured China's real estate bubble would be about 5-7 years behind ours in about 2006. At least I might still be right.
 
2012-07-03 08:05:51 PM  

tlchwi02: Arkanaut: They would have to shift gears to focus more on consumers at home, and on building actual, lasting infrastructure instead of raising a building one day and tearing it down the next.

according to a snippet i heard on the radio this AM, they virtually rebuild all of their cities on a 10 year cycle right now. infrastructure, buildings, housing, etc. not sure if they were doing this because they needed to (they were such crap they are already falling apart) or if its more of a "make-work" thing they do to encourage "employment" because the guest didn't go to deeply into it, but that seemed pretty freaking aggressive to me


Well you know the old saying. When you find the people are out of work, have half of them dig holes and the other half fill them in.
 
2012-07-03 08:10:32 PM  

zetar: China is a paper dragon.

/ I've been saying this for a while.


Absolutely, the Chinese government have been cooking the books now for some time. It will all come crashing down. Then there will be a revolution and China will probably break up into a few different countries.
 
2012-07-03 08:38:26 PM  
t0.gstatic.com

That's what you get for flying rubber dog shiat outa hong kong!
 
2012-07-03 08:50:24 PM  
China's economy only needs one good negative jolt to come crashing down.
 
2012-07-03 09:07:26 PM  

grimlock1972: China's economy only needs one good negative jolt to come crashing down.


Like Three Gorges Dam going down?
 
2012-07-03 10:05:19 PM  

praymantis: zetar: China is a paper dragon.

/ I've been saying this for a while.

Absolutely, the Chinese government have been cooking the books now for some time. It will all come crashing down. Then there will be a revolution and China will probably break up into a few different countries.


I shared an office with a couple of Chinese grad students and I'm not sure about a new Chinese revolution. They seem to be motivated by a fear of chaos and anarchy; that if the present government falls everybody will starve.

That said, the current Chinese regime is as corrupt as it gets and there's definitely a big bump ahead in the road.
 
2012-07-03 10:11:48 PM  

zetar: praymantis: zetar: China is a paper dragon.

/ I've been saying this for a while.

Absolutely, the Chinese government have been cooking the books now for some time. It will all come crashing down. Then there will be a revolution and China will probably break up into a few different countries.

I shared an office with a couple of Chinese grad students and I'm not sure about a new Chinese revolution. They seem to be motivated by a fear of chaos and anarchy; that if the present government falls everybody will starve.

That said, the current Chinese regime is as corrupt as it gets and there's definitely a big bump ahead in the road.


That's true. I've seen estimates that corruption is like a 15-30% tax on every transaction in their economy. Plus, when the super wealthy party members get some more money, they send it overseas, something that the common person there is not allowed to do. For example, one single family owns all of the mining concerns in the entire country. Just wait until the GOP turns the US into country like that.
 
2012-07-03 10:26:30 PM  

imontheinternet: You can't maintain a spectacular growth rate indefinitely, and the things you do to try to keep it going artificially will end up biting you in the ass.


No way!

www.realaspen.com
 
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