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(Network World)   Prediction: the iPhone "will be a bigger marketing flop than Ishtar and Waterworld combined"   (networkworld.com) divider line 60
    More: Fail, Waterworld, iPhone, Ishtar, predictions, marketing  
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6134 clicks; posted to Geek » on 01 Jul 2012 at 1:47 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-07-01 09:40:23 AM
Timely reference.
 
2012-07-01 09:58:34 AM
Nobody told me it would be a replacement for your laptop.
 
2012-07-01 10:19:49 AM
No wireless. Less space than a Nomad. Lame.
 
2012-07-01 10:24:27 AM
Can someone please explain to me why this article is a slideshow?
 
2012-07-01 10:37:10 AM
That was the Heavens Gate of predictions
 
2012-07-01 12:17:28 PM

MaudlinMutantMollusk: That was the Heavens Gate of predictions


It was like that new Liz Taylor talkie, Cleopatra. See? Nya.
 
2012-07-01 12:45:31 PM
This was probably the first time someone predicted the failure of something that ultimately succeeded.
 
2012-07-01 12:48:24 PM

Grables'Daughter: Can someone please explain to me why this article is a slideshow?


networkworld is an abortion?
 
2012-07-01 12:50:17 PM

dickfreckle: This was probably the first time someone predicted the failure of something that ultimately succeeded.


But the number of people who didnt just get it wrong, but how completely and totally wrong they got it.

I wish I could remember back that far and remember what my reaction was to the iPhone announcement. Alas, I have little to no memory of 2006-2008.
 
2012-07-01 01:06:32 PM

namatad:
I wish I could remember back that far and remember what my reaction was to the iPhone announcement. Alas, I have little to no memory of 2006-2008.


I remember thinking "Hey, that sounds cool, and is yet another cool sounding thing that I can't afford."

Which continues to be the case.
 
2012-07-01 01:56:34 PM

namatad: dickfreckle: This was probably the first time someone predicted the failure of something that ultimately succeeded.

But the number of people who didnt just get it wrong, but how completely and totally wrong they got it.

I wish I could remember back that far and remember what my reaction was to the iPhone announcement. Alas, I have little to no memory of 2006-2008.


These are all people who wrote magazine columns and blogs. Its an amazing enhancement to memory.
 
2012-07-01 02:02:32 PM
In terms of the iPhone that was presented, they were right. The 1st iPhone sold poorly.

http://www.intomobile.com/2007/11/28/apple-facing-laggard-o2-iphone-s a les-in-uk/
 
2012-07-01 02:03:05 PM

DjangoStonereaver: namatad: dickfreckle: This was probably the first time someone predicted the failure of something that ultimately succeeded.

But the number of people who didnt just get it wrong, but how completely and totally wrong they got it.

I wish I could remember back that far and remember what my reaction was to the iPhone announcement. Alas, I have little to no memory of 2006-2008.

These are all people who wrote magazine columns and blogs. Its an amazing enhancement to memory.


This writing things down thing, go on ...
 
2012-07-01 02:11:39 PM
Dvorak has a long, consistent history of making predictions that turn out wrong, dating all the back to the glossy PC Magazine days. It's not a bad idea to believe the exact opposite of what he predicts.
 
2012-07-01 02:22:04 PM
Oh look, Dvorak whines about how it's somebody else's fault he got it completely wrong. What a pathetic douche.
 
2012-07-01 02:30:16 PM

namatad: dickfreckle: This was probably the first time someone predicted the failure of something that ultimately succeeded.

But the number of people who didnt just get it wrong, but how completely and totally wrong they got it.

I wish I could remember back that far and remember what my reaction was to the iPhone announcement. Alas, I have little to no memory of 2006-2008.


First reaction: Welcome to the future!
10 seconds later: AT&T? hmmm
20 seconds later: It costs how much?
30 seconds later: realize there is nothing in life that requires me being on the interwebz 24/7
6 months later: jealous rage as everyone spent half their school loans on a phone!
 
2012-07-01 02:50:41 PM

farkeruk: In terms of the iPhone that was presented, they were right. The 1st iPhone sold poorly.

http://www.intomobile.com/2007/11/28/apple-facing-laggard-o2-iphone-s a les-in-uk/


Yep, it was cumbersome to get going as well when you compare it to other handsets of the day completley because Apple wanted it so you could buy the phone and then go shopping for the best possible supplier. Hence you had to take the phone home to activate it (or get it activated in a store)... for the most part getting a new phone on contract is: You sign, the barcode (containing the EIMEI number), your SIM has a similar atomicity performed on it and inside of 5min.

Jobs seemed to think he could get AT&T (and other US carriers) to haul ass building out their 2G and 3G networks and his little vision of web based apps would come to fruition... pretty much as he'd done with the RIAA and iTunes.

The success of the iPhone lies in the shift from web apps to local apps once it became abundantly clear that AT&T were never going to build out and instead openly complained about the iPhone breaking their network. But at the time and with how Apple wanted things to be yeah, the iPhone would of been a complete flop... in Europe the original 1st & 2nd gen devices were laughably bad; 2G (at best) when 3G was the standard.

What I do find truly dumb though is that with few exceptions ever mobile phone vendor totally ignored both the 18-wheeler of Apple appearing in their rear-view mirrors AND totally failed to capitalise on that juggernaut stalling for a good 2 years.
 
2012-07-01 02:52:10 PM
They forgot to include the brainiac at TI who closed an entire factory and laid off most of their R&D staff because he didn't think there was a market for smartphones. Even though the closure and layoffs weren't going to be completed for over a year, well after the iPhone took off like a cat with its butthole on fire, he was still too proud to admit his mistake and went ahead with the closure and the layoffs. Now, they are stuck in the back of the pack and will probably never catch back up to the rest of the industry.
 
2012-07-01 03:00:07 PM

Farty McPooPants: They forgot to include the brainiac at TI who closed an entire factory and laid off most of their R&D staff because he didn't think there was a market for smartphones. Even though the closure and layoffs weren't going to be completed for over a year, well after the iPhone took off like a cat with its butthole on fire, he was still too proud to admit his mistake and went ahead with the closure and the layoffs. Now, they are stuck in the back of the pack and will probably never catch back up to the rest of the industry.


TI as in texas instruments? They can eat a dick far as I'm concerned, mandatory calculators for math classes that still cost 150$ despite having the functionality of a stunted smartphone with half its capacitors popped. That there is a company that needs to have its monopoly pulled out from under it.
 
2012-07-01 03:02:10 PM
John Dvorak, MarketWatch columnist, wrong about the iPhone everything

FTFA. Has this guy gotten anything right ever?

/didn't realize he was still alive until a few months ago
 
2012-07-01 03:07:04 PM
A co-founder of Rand Strategic Partners, Sullivan on May 15, 2007, authored a column on Seeking Alpha with the headline: "The iPhone: Apple's First Flop."

Well, that one was wrong in 2007.

Newton
Lisa
Apple III (according to the Wikipedia article about the Lisa)
Centris (maybe? First time I've heard of it)
 
2012-07-01 03:11:37 PM

BumpInTheNight: Farty McPooPants: They forgot to include the brainiac at TI who closed an entire factory and laid off most of their R&D staff because he didn't think there was a market for smartphones. Even though the closure and layoffs weren't going to be completed for over a year, well after the iPhone took off like a cat with its butthole on fire, he was still too proud to admit his mistake and went ahead with the closure and the layoffs. Now, they are stuck in the back of the pack and will probably never catch back up to the rest of the industry.

TI as in texas instruments? They can eat a dick far as I'm concerned, mandatory calculators for math classes that still cost 150$ despite having the functionality of a stunted smartphone with half its capacitors popped. That there is a company that needs to have its monopoly pulled out from under it.


imgs.xkcd.com

/oblig.
 
2012-07-01 03:18:02 PM

andrewagill:
Centris (maybe? First time I've heard of it)


Cube.

And if we're going to allow peripherals then the Puck Mouse.

Apple have had plenty of actual products fail, I predict that they will continue to put out the occasional product that for one reason or another (possibly multiple reasons even) fails.
 
2012-07-01 03:31:51 PM

beer4breakfast: Dvorak has a long, consistent history of making predictions that turn out wrong, dating all the back to the glossy PC Magazine days. It's not a bad idea to believe the exact opposite of what he predicts.


One of his new years predictions one year was that it was time for Apple to "pack it in". This was a prediction for the year they introduced the iMac.

Good jorb there, shiathead.

/Dvorak probably still uses a blackberry. Or a flip phone and a palm pilot.
 
2012-07-01 03:46:46 PM

beer4breakfast: Dvorak has a long, consistent history of making predictions that turn out wrong, dating all the back to the glossy PC Magazine days. It's not a bad idea to believe the exact opposite of what he predicts.


You are not kidding. One could make a fortune on this guy by going the other direction.

From his wikipedia page:

One of his most famous predictions was made in 1984, while he was a writer for the San Francisco Examiner, stating as a reason the Macintosh would fail: "The Macintosh uses an experimental pointing device called a 'mouse'."

...advice offered in his 2007 article for Marketwatch, regarding the iPhone. "If [Apple's] smart, it will call the iPhone a 'reference design' and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else's marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures. It should do that immediately before it's too late."

...he criticized Apple's iPad when it first appeared in 2010, stating that it was no different from other previous tablets that had failed: "I cannot see it escaping the tablet computer dead zone any time soon."
 
2012-07-01 03:49:34 PM
well, it is difficult to imagine SO many people would overspend for a crippled device just because of peer pressure


/oh wait, this is america
 
2012-07-01 04:01:37 PM

Leader O'Cola: well, it is difficult to imagine SO many people would overspend for a crippled device just because of peer pressure


/oh wait, this is america


Point of order: A 16Gb iPhone 4S is free on a 24 month contract from 3, comes with 2000 min, 5000 texts and unlimited data (actual unlimited but you'll be throttled after the first 2 - 5Gb). I can't comment on the devices functionality but attempting to troll with the tired old overspending line is... weak sauce.

You can do better, we deserve better. Now try again, we believe in your Leader O'Cola give it your all!
 
2012-07-01 04:04:33 PM
To this day I still do not understand how Dvorak gets paid to do what he does.
 
2012-07-01 04:23:37 PM

theurge14: To this day I still do not understand how Dvorak gets paid to do what he does.


He has name recognition and phone contacts. I found his column in PC to be so-so, but the short bits (whatever it was called) was a nice collection of things to come techwise, before the web and sites like hardocp and anandtech.
 
2012-07-01 05:23:49 PM
Like to see an Android similar. Android might be considered a success some day.
 
2012-07-01 05:27:07 PM

BumpInTheNight: Farty McPooPants: They forgot to include the brainiac at TI who closed an entire factory and laid off most of their R&D staff because he didn't think there was a market for smartphones. Even though the closure and layoffs weren't going to be completed for over a year, well after the iPhone took off like a cat with its butthole on fire, he was still too proud to admit his mistake and went ahead with the closure and the layoffs. Now, they are stuck in the back of the pack and will probably never catch back up to the rest of the industry.

TI as in texas instruments? They can eat a dick far as I'm concerned, mandatory calculators for math classes that still cost 150$ despite having the functionality of a stunted smartphone with half its capacitors popped. That there is a company that needs to have its monopoly pulled out from under it.


Can't you just get an app for it? I know there are scientific/graphing calculator apps on both the iTunes and Android marketplaces... is there some arbitrary rule against that or something?
 
2012-07-01 05:28:24 PM

mongbiohazard: BumpInTheNight: Farty McPooPants: They forgot to include the brainiac at TI who closed an entire factory and laid off most of their R&D staff because he didn't think there was a market for smartphones. Even though the closure and layoffs weren't going to be completed for over a year, well after the iPhone took off like a cat with its butthole on fire, he was still too proud to admit his mistake and went ahead with the closure and the layoffs. Now, they are stuck in the back of the pack and will probably never catch back up to the rest of the industry.

TI as in texas instruments? They can eat a dick far as I'm concerned, mandatory calculators for math classes that still cost 150$ despite having the functionality of a stunted smartphone with half its capacitors popped. That there is a company that needs to have its monopoly pulled out from under it.

Can't you just get an app for it? I know there are scientific/graphing calculator apps on both the iTunes and Android marketplaces... is there some arbitrary rule against that or something?


Tough to bring that into an exam, know what I mean?
 
2012-07-01 05:49:54 PM

symbolset: Like to see an Android similar. Android might be considered a success some day.


That's a nice troll.

My biggest biatch about the iPhone and apple in general is once I buy something I like to be able to control what I put on it. Call me nutty but I feel once I buy a device I shouldnt have to cede decisions to who I paid for the device.

Also, android is still a huge OS out there and once apple's lawsuits are thrown out they will lag behind other makers on innovations yet again.
 
2012-07-01 05:56:34 PM

steamingpile: My biggest biatch about the iPhone and apple in general is once I buy something I like to be able to control what I put on it. Call me nutty but I feel once I buy a device I shouldnt have to cede decisions to who I paid for the device.


I wonder what the world would be like if apple had not squashed the apple/gateway clone deal. Apple clones would have cut into Apple's share, but would have increase the size of the pie. The question is by how much.

PC clones cut into IBMs share of the PC market, but that market is now gigantic.
(yes, I know IBM left the PC market, but that was because margins had shrunk to nil.)
 
2012-07-01 05:57:55 PM
The Total Fark brigade felt this way too.
 
2012-07-01 06:52:16 PM

mongbiohazard: BumpInTheNight: Farty McPooPants: They forgot to include the brainiac at TI who closed an entire factory and laid off most of their R&D staff because he didn't think there was a market for smartphones. Even though the closure and layoffs weren't going to be completed for over a year, well after the iPhone took off like a cat with its butthole on fire, he was still too proud to admit his mistake and went ahead with the closure and the layoffs. Now, they are stuck in the back of the pack and will probably never catch back up to the rest of the industry.

TI as in texas instruments? They can eat a dick far as I'm concerned, mandatory calculators for math classes that still cost 150$ despite having the functionality of a stunted smartphone with half its capacitors popped. That there is a company that needs to have its monopoly pulled out from under it.

Can't you just get an app for it? I know there are scientific/graphing calculator apps on both the iTunes and Android marketplaces... is there some arbitrary rule against that or something?


Yes, because the teacher doesn't know if you are using the AP or googling the answer.
 
2012-07-01 07:07:00 PM
I really dont like the iPhone, but I love the iPad and iPod Touch. I work in R&D at a company which has a need for competitive analysis of mobile devices. I have an iPhone, Blackberry, Android, and Win Mobile devices (and their tablets, yes all of them).

For my day to day needs, I prefer the Blackberry Bold 9900. For work, the messaging, email, calendar, alerts, and input are still, as a package, more useful than any other device. I still find the virtual keyboard, on any device tiresome to use.

I really wish Apple would pull it's head out, and create an enterprise oriented mobile device.
 
2012-07-01 07:35:02 PM
I don't understand the hate for Waterworld, it was a decent movie.
 
2012-07-01 08:09:02 PM

namatad: steamingpile: My biggest biatch about the iPhone and apple in general is once I buy something I like to be able to control what I put on it. Call me nutty but I feel once I buy a device I shouldnt have to cede decisions to who I paid for the device.

I wonder what the world would be like if apple had not squashed the apple/gateway clone deal. Apple clones would have cut into Apple's share, but would have increase the size of the pie. The question is by how much.

PC clones cut into IBMs share of the PC market, but that market is now gigantic.
(yes, I know IBM left the PC market, but that was because margins had shrunk to nil.)


Apple would have gone out of business.

They figured out that they (apple & the clones) would never achieve the economy of scale needed to compete with Dell/HP/IBM in the enterprise and low end market, so they focused on the consumer and the education market.

The consumer is willing to pay extra for (real or perceived) value, the VP of corporate purchasing will force you to buy whatever vendor has the best bribe.
 
2012-07-01 08:25:23 PM

namatad: steamingpile: My biggest biatch about the iPhone and apple in general is once I buy something I like to be able to control what I put on it. Call me nutty but I feel once I buy a device I shouldnt have to cede decisions to who I paid for the device.

I wonder what the world would be like if apple had not squashed the apple/gateway clone deal. Apple clones would have cut into Apple's share, but would have increase the size of the pie. The question is by how much.

PC clones cut into IBMs share of the PC market, but that market is now gigantic.
(yes, I know IBM left the PC market, but that was because margins had shrunk to nil.)


You just answered your own question. Can't believe people are still debating this in 2012.
 
2012-07-01 08:38:28 PM
You know, the problem with all of these gloating "retrospectives" by Apple fans is that the first version of the iPhone was a very different product than what we see today. At launch, there was no app store, nor a SDK, nor any plans to provide either one. As well, it was priced at $500, or $600 for the 8GB model, with no way to get a subsidy on it, and yet you were still expected to sign a 2-year contract with AT&T. Effectively, you were paying $500, on contract, for a feature phone. This was a ridiculous proposition for everyone but the super-die-hard iCultists.

Apple completely recreated their business model between the time the iPhone was released and the time the iPhone 3G was released, and frankly, if they hadn't, all those people predicting gloom and doom would have been right.
 
2012-07-01 08:55:43 PM

HeartBurnKid: You know, the problem with all of these gloating "retrospectives" by Apple fans is that the first version of the iPhone was a very different product than what we see today. At launch, there was no app store, nor a SDK, nor any plans to provide either one. As well, it was priced at $500, or $600 for the 8GB model, with no way to get a subsidy on it, and yet you were still expected to sign a 2-year contract with AT&T. Effectively, you were paying $500, on contract, for a feature phone. This was a ridiculous proposition for everyone but the super-die-hard iCultists.

Apple completely recreated their business model between the time the iPhone was released and the time the iPhone 3G was released, and frankly, if they hadn't, all those people predicting gloom and doom would have been right.


Completely false statement. I had an original iPhone. There was never any suggestion of a contract, nor did I have one.

Still use that old iPhone as an internet radio streaming device. The battery is junk, but otherwise it works well for being five years old. I just leave it on a dock connected to my stereo.
 
2012-07-01 09:44:46 PM
 
2012-07-01 09:51:04 PM

StingerJ: Completely false statement. I had an original iPhone. There was never any suggestion of a contract, nor did I have one.


Then you jailbroke it. If you activated it via iTunes, you had a 2-year contract.
 
2012-07-01 09:59:33 PM

HeartBurnKid: StingerJ: Completely false statement. I had an original iPhone. There was never any suggestion of a contract, nor did I have one.

Then you jailbroke it. If you activated it via iTunes, you had a 2-year contract.


Nope. It has never been jailbroken and it was activated via iTunes. Just like every other original iPhone, as the original iPhone did not have a contract.
 
2012-07-01 10:01:24 PM

StingerJ: HeartBurnKid: StingerJ: Completely false statement. I had an original iPhone. There was never any suggestion of a contract, nor did I have one.

Then you jailbroke it. If you activated it via iTunes, you had a 2-year contract.

Nope. It has never been jailbroken and it was activated via iTunes. Just like every other original iPhone, as the original iPhone did not have a contract.


No, sorry, you are mistaken.
 
2012-07-01 10:17:22 PM

Harry_Seldon: I really dont like the iPhone, but I love the iPad and iPod Touch. I work in R&D at a company which has a need for competitive analysis of mobile devices. I have an iPhone, Blackberry, Android, and Win Mobile devices (and their tablets, yes all of them).

For my day to day needs, I prefer the Blackberry Bold 9900. For work, the messaging, email, calendar, alerts, and input are still, as a package, more useful than any other device. I still find the virtual keyboard, on any device tiresome to use.

I really wish Apple would pull it's head out, and create an enterprise oriented mobile device.


Apple doesn't care about the enterprise; it would interfere with their centralized control via the App Store.
 
2012-07-01 10:26:10 PM

HeartBurnKid: StingerJ: HeartBurnKid: StingerJ: Completely false statement. I had an original iPhone. There was never any suggestion of a contract, nor did I have one.

Then you jailbroke it. If you activated it via iTunes, you had a 2-year contract.

Nope. It has never been jailbroken and it was activated via iTunes. Just like every other original iPhone, as the original iPhone did not have a contract.

No, sorry, you are mistaken.


Clearly I am misremembering and you are correct. I knew I should have pulled the plug on the router when I started drinking...
 
2012-07-01 10:29:59 PM

andrewagill: Centris (maybe? First time I've heard of it)


The Centris was mostly a failure in the sense that their product line at the time was horribly complicated and had tons of overlap. They had Performa, Quadra, Centris, Mac II series, LC series, Classic series, plus a few legacy things all at the same time. Plenty of them were literally overlaps (Performa 200 == Classic II, Performa 475 == LC 475 == Quadra 605, etc) and there was plenty of confusion all around. Towards the end, throw in Power Macintosh too. Made shopping for a Mac a chore.

/Useless Apple History Lesson #46 complete
 
2012-07-01 10:30:03 PM

DjangoStonereaver: Apple doesn't care about the enterprise; it would interfere with their centralized control via the App Store.


Apple distributes keys to enterprise clients so they can run their own app repositories.
 
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