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(BusinessWeek)   A new poll has Obama up in three key swing states. Super liberal media inconsolable   (businessweek.com) divider line 83
    More: Interesting, obama, swing states, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, Quinnipiac, lead in, Mitt Romney, election days, liberal media  
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1708 clicks; posted to Politics » on 27 Jun 2012 at 10:00 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-06-27 09:12:20 AM
I don't get it.
 
2012-06-27 09:36:33 AM

sigdiamond2000: I don't get it.


It is basic sarcasm. Media is thrilled apparently. Subby is not on the writing staff of an award winning comedy show.
 
2012-06-27 09:58:48 AM
Doesn't make sense. The media has been saying that June has been a Very Bad Month for Obama. It's almost as if they have a vested interest in making this election appear close.
 
2012-06-27 10:03:24 AM

Dusk-You-n-Me: Doesn't make sense. The media has been saying that June has been a Very Bad Month for Obama. It's almost as if they have a vested interest in making this election appear close.


Next you'll be telling me they never actually expected Sarah Palin to be a legitimate GOP candidate.
 
2012-06-27 10:03:57 AM
Ignore all polls until September. That is my advice.
 
2012-06-27 10:04:12 AM
Why is Pennsylvania considered a swing state? It hasn't gone for the GOP since 1988
 
2012-06-27 10:06:08 AM

Aarontology: Why is Pennsylvania considered a swing state? It hasn't gone for the GOP since 1988


Close polling + lots of electoral votes?
 
2012-06-27 10:06:20 AM

vernonFL: Ignore all polls until September. That is my advice.


I'd say wait till October, when the last bit of new dirt is slung.
 
2012-06-27 10:06:41 AM
Being in a deep derp Red state makes my vote for Obama worthless. But I will do it anyway. Would be much more useful in a swing state.
 
2012-06-27 10:07:25 AM
Aarontology: Why is Pennsylvania considered a swing state? It hasn't gone for the GOP since 1988

Because even though its reliably gone Dem its been like within striking distance, its like a 52/48 state, not a 70/30 state. Much the same with MI,WI, and MN
 
2012-06-27 10:08:41 AM
I live in congressional district in metro DC area that went heavily for Obama in 2008. I just got my first Mitt Romney for President 2012 bumper sticker. I am a die hard Republican and I have put GOP bumper stickers on my car in the past. However this year I am seriously hesitating putting the Romney one on even though I very much want him to win. Reason: I fear physical assault to my person or vehicle. Furthermore I know it is early in the election cycle but I haven't seen any Romney stickers on any cars either. Anyone else having this fear?
 
2012-06-27 10:09:31 AM
You aren't supposed to care about polling until mid-October when all the polls magically clean up their bias and revert back to a more realistic forecast. It happens every cycle so that, next cycle, they can talk about how right they were.
 
2012-06-27 10:12:03 AM

NateGrey: I live in congressional district in metro DC area that went heavily for Obama in 2008. I just got my first Mitt Romney for President 2012 bumper sticker. I am a die hard Republican and I have put GOP bumper stickers on my car in the past. However this year I am seriously hesitating putting the Romney one on even though I very much want him to win. Reason: I fear physical assault to my person or vehicle. Furthermore I know it is early in the election cycle but I haven't seen any Romney stickers on any cars either. Anyone else having this fear?


Nope. But I do fear being a toolbag, which is what political bumper stickers make you. So grats?
 
2012-06-27 10:12:10 AM

NateGrey: I live in congressional district in metro DC area that went heavily for Obama in 2008. I just got my first Mitt Romney for President 2012 bumper sticker. I am a die hard Republican and I have put GOP bumper stickers on my car in the past. However this year I am seriously hesitating putting the Romney one on even though I very much want him to win. Reason: I fear physical assault to my person or vehicle. Furthermore I know it is early in the election cycle but I haven't seen any Romney stickers on any cars either. Anyone else having this fear?


Aha! PROOF that libs are using intimidation and scare tactics against Romney supporters!

/I felt dirty typing that.
 
2012-06-27 10:13:28 AM
I'm sure once you weed out the unlikely voters, it's still a very tight race.
 
2012-06-27 10:14:07 AM
Glenn Back told me a Romney has 48 states already locked up. We don't even have to vote. Its all over.
 
2012-06-27 10:15:29 AM
Headline: Obama Tops Romney in Poll of Three Swing-State Voters

What's the margin of error on a sample size of three?
 
2012-06-27 10:16:55 AM

Cataholic: I'm sure once you weed out the unlikely voters, it's still a very tight race.


i45.tinypic.com

i48.tinypic.com
 
2012-06-27 10:18:03 AM
Cue new round of GOP sponsored voter suppression laws in 3 -2- 1.....
 
2012-06-27 10:20:45 AM

qorkfiend: Close polling + lots of electoral votes?


Probably has more to do with the EC votes than anything else. Aside from 2004, it hasn't been within four points since 1988.

Oldiron_79: Because even though its reliably gone Dem its been like within striking distance, its like a 52/48 state, not a 70/30 state. Much the same with MI,WI, and MN


Maybe, but in 2008 there was something like a ten point difference.
 
2012-06-27 10:21:23 AM

Aarontology: Why is Pennsylvania considered a swing state? It hasn't gone for the GOP since 1988


Voter supression, baby!
 
2012-06-27 10:23:26 AM

rev. dave: Being in a deep derp Red state makes my vote for Obama worthless. But I will do it anyway. Would be much more useful in a swing state.


If you know a Conservative person in a swing state, invite him over to your house in November. Tell them there is a festival in your city giving out free guns or Nascar shirts or something. Be creative.
 
2012-06-27 10:26:09 AM
The president holds almost a 2-1 lead among Hispanic voters in Florida, the poll found.


Who is this 1/3 of Hispanics who think voting for Romney is a good idea??
 
2012-06-27 10:28:06 AM

Tamater: The president holds almost a 2-1 lead among Hispanic voters in Florida, the poll found.


Who is this 1/3 of Hispanics who think voting for Romney is a good idea??


Rubio supporters. Probably predominantly Cuban expats.
 
2012-06-27 10:28:49 AM

Tamater: The president holds almost a 2-1 lead among Hispanic voters in Florida, the poll found.


Who is this 1/3 of Hispanics who think voting for Romney is a good idea??


in Florida? Cubans.
 
2012-06-27 10:31:16 AM

LouDobbsAwaaaay: Cataholic: I'm sure once you weed out the unlikely voters, it's still a very tight race.

[i45.tinypic.com image 320x240]

[i48.tinypic.com image 600x432]


Here comes the Science!
 
2012-06-27 10:32:09 AM
 
2012-06-27 10:34:17 AM

Tamater: The president holds almost a 2-1 lead among Hispanic voters in Florida, the poll found.


Who is this 1/3 of Hispanics who think voting for Romney is a good idea??


Cubans.

People who flee communist countries tend not to be leftists.
 
2012-06-27 10:34:44 AM

NateGrey: Tamater: The president holds almost a 2-1 lead among Hispanic voters in Florida, the poll found.


Who is this 1/3 of Hispanics who think voting for Romney is a good idea??

The no position must be appealing to some?

Schieffer repeatedly asked Romney if he would repeal the order if he becomes President. Romney subsequently failed to directly answer the question.

First, he responded, "Well, let's step back and look at the issue." When asked a second time, he replied "Well, it would be overtaken by events, if you will, by virtue of my putting in place a long-term solution."


What the hell does that even mean???
 
2012-06-27 10:35:47 AM

Crabs_Can_Polevault: NateGrey: I live in congressional district in metro DC area that went heavily for Obama in 2008. I just got my first Mitt Romney for President 2012 bumper sticker. I am a die hard Republican and I have put GOP bumper stickers on my car in the past. However this year I am seriously hesitating putting the Romney one on even though I very much want him to win. Reason: I fear physical assault to my person or vehicle. Furthermore I know it is early in the election cycle but I haven't seen any Romney stickers on any cars either. Anyone else having this fear?

Aha! PROOF that libs are using intimidation and scare tactics against Romney supporters!

/I felt dirty typing that.


Well duh. Everyone knows that all Liberals, and ONLY Liberals, are violent lunatics.
 
2012-06-27 10:37:23 AM

Cataholic: I'm sure once you weed out the unlikely voters, it's still a very tight race.


At best registered voter poll to likely voter poll gives the GOP a 3% swing. At best. Based on GOP primary turn-out, Republican turn-out has been dropping substantially.

If Obama has a 4% - 9% lead in battle ground States. Your best case scenario of a 3% swing based on turn-out won't help you.

Add the fact that Romney boring the hell out of everyone and Obama energizing his LGBT and that spells disaster for Romney.
 
2012-06-27 10:37:59 AM
If I weren't a recluse I'd start some serious Mormon hate in Texas and deliver it to Obama. For the LOL's.

Let's not elect a soul thieving Mormon, let's keep this at least nominal christian in office so we can elect another one in 2016. It's just four more years.
 
2012-06-27 10:38:01 AM

salvador.hardin: Headline: Obama Tops Romney in Poll of Three Swing-State Voters

What's the margin of error on a sample size of three?


That's what I was thinking. Poorly written headline is poorly written.
 
2012-06-27 10:38:02 AM

Wendy's Chili: Tamater: The president holds almost a 2-1 lead among Hispanic voters in Florida, the poll found.


Who is this 1/3 of Hispanics who think voting for Romney is a good idea??

Cubans.

People who flee communist countries tend not to be leftists.


Because the GOP certainly has their best interests at heart.

/enormous eyeroll
 
2012-06-27 10:40:01 AM

tudorgurl: What the hell does that even mean???


It means Liberals Bad, basically.
 
2012-06-27 10:40:49 AM

Wendy's Chili: People who flee communist countries tend not to be leftists confuse what the democrats do with "communism".

 
2012-06-27 10:41:55 AM

Longtime Lurker: Tamater: The president holds almost a 2-1 lead among Hispanic voters in Florida, the poll found.


Who is this 1/3 of Hispanics who think voting for Romney is a good idea??

in Florida? Cubans.


Yep, definitely the Cubans. And maybe a few voters who are idiots and haven't figured out that this isn't the Jeb Bush version of the GOP.
 
2012-06-27 10:42:00 AM

Aarontology: Why is Pennsylvania considered a swing state? It hasn't gone for the GOP since 1988


It's been reasonably close. 1988 is a lot more recently than many states have swung. And, it's a state that elected Rick Santorum, statewide, twice. Not that that directly translates to presidential support (Montana has two Democratic Senators and Obama doesn't stand a chance, Maine has two Republican Senators and Romney's chances aren't much better), but it's plausible.
 
2012-06-27 10:42:13 AM
If most of the first time voters from 2008 turn out, Obama will kick Romney's ass. That said, NC is likely going red this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if Indiana and Florida flip too. The EV count is going to be much closer this year.
 
2012-06-27 10:51:20 AM

Lawnchair: Aarontology: Why is Pennsylvania considered a swing state? It hasn't gone for the GOP since 1988

It's been reasonably close. 1988 is a lot more recently than many states have swung. And, it's a state that elected Rick Santorum, statewide, twice. Not that that directly translates to presidential support (Montana has two Democratic Senators and Obama doesn't stand a chance, Maine has two Republican Senators and Romney's chances aren't much better), but it's plausible.


The Philly suburbs always seem to be the bellweather for PA. They're usually the folks who determine whether the GOP or Democrats take the state.

Otherwise PA is either very liberal (Pittsburgh and Philly) or very conservative (everywhere outside Pittsburgh and Philly including most Pittsburgh suburbs).
 
2012-06-27 10:53:28 AM
I don't trust this poll. It has Pennsylvania closer than Ohio, when demographically it should be the reverse. There is no way Romney can win PA without winning Ohio
 
2012-06-27 10:55:24 AM

Lost Thought 00: I don't trust this poll. It has Pennsylvania closer than Ohio, when demographically it should be the reverse. There is no way Romney can win PA without winning Ohio


My only explanation for this anomaly is that Ohio voters are taking Romney to task for his editorial about letting GM fail.

That and Kaisch is a total dick. Corbett hasn't reached Kaisch-level dickishness yet.
 
2012-06-27 10:55:24 AM

rev. dave: Being in a deep derp Red state makes my vote for Obama worthless. But I will do it anyway. Would be much more useful in a swing state.


Not really, it affects the total "Population" vote that the media reports on. If the population count has one guy winning and the electoral college has the other guy winning it gives partisans something to whine about all year long.
 
2012-06-27 10:56:09 AM

Dusk-You-n-Me: Doesn't make sense. The media has been saying that June has been a Very Bad Month for Obama. It's almost as if they have a vested interest in making this election appear close.


They want a horse race.
 
2012-06-27 10:59:23 AM

Mrtraveler01: That and Kaisch is a total dick.


OH, 26 June

Obama vs Romney: 47-44
Obama vs Romney + Kaisch: 48-42
Obama vs Romney + Boehner: 49-41

Link
 
2012-06-27 10:59:28 AM

Tamater: Wendy's Chili: Tamater: The president holds almost a 2-1 lead among Hispanic voters in Florida, the poll found.


Who is this 1/3 of Hispanics who think voting for Romney is a good idea??

Cubans.

People who flee communist countries tend not to be leftists.

Because the GOP certainly has their best interests at heart.

/enormous eyeroll


Well... they are more likely to declare war on Cuba.

I don't know if it's a best interest, but it's certainly an interest to some.
 
2012-06-27 10:59:33 AM

tudorgurl: What the hell does that even mean???


This was probably Romney's most intelligence-insulting statement yet. He basically said "I'll revoke Obama's policy, which is only temporary, and replace it with my own, permanent policy, to be announced later."
 
2012-06-27 11:05:58 AM

Wendy's Chili: Tamater: Wendy's Chili: Tamater: The president holds almost a 2-1 lead among Hispanic voters in Florida, the poll found.


Who is this 1/3 of Hispanics who think voting for Romney is a good idea??

Cubans.

People who flee communist countries tend not to be leftists.

Because the GOP certainly has their best interests at heart.

/enormous eyeroll

Well... they are more likely to declare war on Cuba.

I don't know if it's a best interest, but it's certainly an interest to some.


Plus throw in there are few fundie Hispanics who are offended by pro-gay pro-abortion rights etc...
 
2012-06-27 11:08:50 AM

King Something: Dusk-You-n-Me: Doesn't make sense. The media has been saying that June has been a Very Bad Month for Obama. It's almost as if they have a vested interest in making this election appear close.

They want a horse race.


They constantly refer to candidates being vetted which is literally a term borrowed from horse racing.
 
2012-06-27 11:12:17 AM

Cataholic: LouDobbsAwaaaay: Cataholic: I'm sure once you weed out the unlikely voters, it's still a very tight race.

[i45.tinypic.com image 320x240]

[i48.tinypic.com image 600x432]

Here comes the Science!


Ummm


From June 19 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed:

1,200 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
1,237 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
1,252 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.


I'm imagining "voters" are pretty close to "likely voters".
 
2012-06-27 11:21:50 AM

NateGrey: I live in congressional district in metro DC area that went heavily for Obama in 2008. I just got my first Mitt Romney for President 2012 bumper sticker. I am a die hard Republican and I have put GOP bumper stickers on my car in the past. However this year I am seriously hesitating putting the Romney one on even though I very much want him to win. Reason: I fear physical assault to my person or vehicle. Furthermore I know it is early in the election cycle but I haven't seen any Romney stickers on any cars either. Anyone else having this fear?


cache.gawker.com
 
2012-06-27 11:23:51 AM

rev. dave: Being in a deep derp Red state makes my vote for Obama worthless. But I will do it anyway. Would be much more useful in a swing state.


Meh, I'm in a deep Blue state and I'm voting for Rmoney, because I want the US to fail. That is right Mitt Romney is bad choice for gays, is the bad choice for atheists, is bad choice for women, is bad for the economy, is the worst thing to happen to American since George Bush. Vote Romney, because the world needs to burn.
 
2012-06-27 11:24:32 AM

qorkfiend: Aarontology: Why is Pennsylvania considered a swing state? It hasn't gone for the GOP since 1988

Close polling + lots of electoral votes?


Because the Pennsylvania Republicans outright admitted that their voting restricting preventing elderly, blacks, students from voting without ID could swing the election. Sure, Ms. FDRvoter you can get a free voter ID, just as long as you spend $50 to get your short form Birth Certificate, you know, to prove you really are still a citizen.
 
2012-06-27 11:33:20 AM

rev. dave: Being in a deep derp Red state makes my vote for Obama worthless. But I will do it anyway. Would be much more useful in a swing state.


Visit your cousin in Ohio, register for permanent absentee voter status. As long as you vote only once, it's no worse than George Herbert Walker Bush voting in Houston based on a hotel room address all the years he lived in Washington DC.
 
2012-06-27 11:44:17 AM

NateGrey: I live in congressional district in metro DC area that went heavily for Obama in 2008. I just got my first Mitt Romney for President 2012 bumper sticker. I am a die hard Republican and I have put GOP bumper stickers on my car in the past. However this year I am seriously hesitating putting the Romney one on even though I very much want him to win. Reason: I fear physical assault to my person or vehicle. Furthermore I know it is early in the election cycle but I haven't seen any Romney stickers on any cars either. Anyone else having this fear?


1) why is your post in italics (are you quoting yourself)?
2) WTF does it have do with a polling thread
3) supports my theory that Conservatives are generally fearful bed wetters

The expression, "die hard" look it up.
 
2012-06-27 11:44:26 AM
The key to this election:

www.artmoth.com

Romney should be trying to close them in swing states.

Obama should be trying to open them in swing states.

With their warchests, they should divide and conquer - TV, radio, web.... and now, zoning / permits!
 
2012-06-27 11:51:30 AM
Not that I would want it this close but Obama could lose Indiana Ohio Virginia North Carolina Florida and as long as he still carried Iowa Pennsylvania and Nevada he would win.
 
2012-06-27 11:57:22 AM

Lawnchair: Aarontology: Why is Pennsylvania considered a swing state? It hasn't gone for the GOP since 1988

It's been reasonably close. 1988 is a lot more recently than many states have swung. And, it's a state that elected Rick Santorum, statewide, twice. Not that that directly translates to presidential support (Montana has two Democratic Senators and Obama doesn't stand a chance, Maine has two Republican Senators and Romney's chances aren't much better), but it's plausible.


Montana has a chance to be close, but Obama won't win there without winning a landslide nationwide. He only lost there by 2.25% in 2008.
 
2012-06-27 12:01:20 PM

Kevin72: Indiana Ohio Virginia North Carolina Florida


That sounds like the worst state ever.
 
2012-06-27 12:07:35 PM
Does that include Florida, home of the NBA Miami Heats?


Dumbest. President. Ever.


Ask the Marine Corpse, they agree.
 
2012-06-27 12:09:54 PM
Those polls are interesting, but state-by-state polls aren't terrifically accurate this far out. Plus, there's the question of whether Quinnipiac has a sampling bias towards Obama in these polls - that could explain why they are showing a bigger margin for Obama than others.

What's interesting are the broader trends - Obama isn't getting 50% of the vote. He'shiatting a limit at 45-48% of the vote consistently. Now, maybe he'll overperform those numbers in the fall, but I'm not so sure about that. Obama's been President for nearly 4 years now - it's not like the people who are undecided now are all that likely to decide to reelect him in the fall. The traditional rule that undecideds break against the incumbent could very well mean that Obama has a much better problem than these polls show.

And when you look at the other polls, it doesn't make much sense that Romney and Obama can be neck-and-neck in Michigan, but Obama's well ahead of Romney in Ohio. Yes, there's the home-state factor at play, but that doesn't seem to be enough to explain it. It's too early to say whether there's anything there, but it does make this race a little more interesting. Who knows, maybe Ohio will cede its key battleground state status to Michigan this year...
 
2012-06-27 12:12:54 PM

vernonFL: Ignore all polls until September. That is my advice.


1.bp.blogspot.com


1.bp.blogspot.com


4.bp.blogspot.com
 
2012-06-27 12:19:48 PM

Crude: Does that include Florida, home of the NBA Miami Heats?


Dumbest. President. Ever.


Ask the Marine Corpse, they agree.



It's "core", moron. Know your Fark history
 
2012-06-27 12:23:45 PM

Wooly Bully: Crude: Does that include Florida, home of the NBA Miami Heats?


Dumbest. President. Ever.


Ask the Marine Corpse, they agree.


It's "core", moron. Know your Fark history


"marine core" and "navy corpsemen", IIRC.
 
2012-06-27 12:26:36 PM
Mormonism is a freaky cult. Not my president!
 
2012-06-27 12:28:43 PM

WombatControl: What's interesting are the broader trends - Obama isn't getting 50% of the vote. He'shiatting a limit at 45-48% of the vote consistently.


Huh? I thought you said polls aren't accurate this far out, now you're saying they are?
 
2012-06-27 12:36:52 PM

cameroncrazy1984: WombatControl: What's interesting are the broader trends - Obama isn't getting 50% of the vote. He'shiatting a limit at 45-48% of the vote consistently.

Huh? I thought you said polls aren't accurate this far out, now you're saying they are?


He might be doing better if he would cut back on the burritos a little bit. Pepto Bismol may also help.
 
2012-06-27 12:36:55 PM

cameroncrazy1984: WombatControl: What's interesting are the broader trends - Obama isn't getting 50% of the vote. He'shiatting a limit at 45-48% of the vote consistently.

Huh? I thought you said polls aren't accurate this far out, now you're saying they are?


1.) Wow, did I get filter-pwned...

2.) State-by-state polls aren't terrifically accurate except to show broad trends. So if you have a bunch of polls now showing Obama 10 points ahead, that probably means that state isn't competitive. But if you get a mix of polls (as we're getting in OH and FL), it's much harder to draw anything from those other than those states are competitive.

What I was referring to was both the state and national polling - even though you can't tell much from polls this far out, the fact that Obama has a rough ceiling of 48% in poll after poll after poll says something about his support. In order to win, Obama has to increase his vote share above that ceiling. The big question is whether that 48% is a hard ceiling that Obama won't exceed or if he'll be able to increase that.

So, the short version is that polls can't tell you who's likely to win a given state this far out, but they can tell you roughly where things stand and what states are competitive.
 
2012-06-27 12:42:53 PM

WombatControl: Those polls are interesting, but state-by-state polls aren't terrifically accurate this far out. Plus, there's the question of whether Quinnipiac has a sampling bias towards Obama in these polls - that could explain why they are showing a bigger margin for Obama than others.

What's interesting are the broader trends - Obama isn't getting 50% of the vote. He'shiatting a limit at 45-48% of the vote consistently. Now, maybe he'll overperform those numbers in the fall, but I'm not so sure about that. Obama's been President for nearly 4 years now - it's not like the people who are undecided now are all that likely to decide to reelect him in the fall. The traditional rule that undecideds break against the incumbent could very well mean that Obama has a much better problem than these polls show.

And when you look at the other polls, it doesn't make much sense that Romney and Obama can be neck-and-neck in Michigan, but Obama's well ahead of Romney in Ohio. Yes, there's the home-state factor at play, but that doesn't seem to be enough to explain it. It's too early to say whether there's anything there, but it does make this race a little more interesting. Who knows, maybe Ohio will cede its key battleground state status to Michigan this year...


So the polls are wrong but they show Obama winning, which is bad news...for Obama? Wow.
 
2012-06-27 12:44:11 PM

WombatControl: there's the question of whether Quinnipiac has a sampling bias towards Obama in these polls


As a Romney supporter it makes sense to "question" the sampling bias of a poll that shows Obama as ahead by 9%, 6%, 4%. You could even try and dig down to the nature of the possible sampling bias.

The sample is that of registered versus likely voters. That could skew the results by as much as 3% in favour of Romney. Instead of 9%, 6%, and 4% leads. It could be 6%, 3% and 1% leads. Much closer to the margins of error now and there is still 6 months 5 months, I mean nearly 4 months to go.

Hopefully the economy will collapse again before election day.
 
2012-06-27 12:44:39 PM

WombatControl: 2.) State-by-state polls aren't terrifically accurate except to show broad trends. So if you have a bunch of polls now showing Obama 10 points ahead, that probably means that state isn't competitive. But if you get a mix of polls (as we're getting in OH and FL), it's much harder to draw anything from those other than those states are competitive.


Well then let's see what the best trend-analyst in politics has to say:

Oh look, Nate Silver gives Obama a 67% chance of winning. This must be bad news...for Obama.
 
2012-06-27 12:46:42 PM

Poopspasm: WombatControl: Those polls are interesting, but state-by-state polls aren't terrifically accurate this far out. Plus, there's the question of whether Quinnipiac has a sampling bias towards Obama in these polls - that could explain why they are showing a bigger margin for Obama than others.

What's interesting are the broader trends - Obama isn't getting 50% of the vote. He'shiatting a limit at 45-48% of the vote consistently. Now, maybe he'll overperform those numbers in the fall, but I'm not so sure about that. Obama's been President for nearly 4 years now - it's not like the people who are undecided now are all that likely to decide to reelect him in the fall. The traditional rule that undecideds break against the incumbent could very well mean that Obama has a much better problem than these polls show.

And when you look at the other polls, it doesn't make much sense that Romney and Obama can be neck-and-neck in Michigan, but Obama's well ahead of Romney in Ohio. Yes, there's the home-state factor at play, but that doesn't seem to be enough to explain it. It's too early to say whether there's anything there, but it does make this race a little more interesting. Who knows, maybe Ohio will cede its key battleground state status to Michigan this year...

So the polls are wrong but they show Obama winning, which is bad news...for Obama? Wow.


Why is it when U3 is high and Obama's popularity is low, Liberals accept it and Conservatives revel in it?

When U3 is low and Obama's popularity is high, Liberals revel in it and Conservatives go to Herculean lengths to dispute it.

It is as if only one side is intellectually dishonest.
 
2012-06-27 12:52:26 PM

Corvus: Cataholic: LouDobbsAwaaaay: Cataholic: I'm sure once you weed out the unlikely voters, it's still a very tight race.

[i45.tinypic.com image 320x240]

[i48.tinypic.com image 600x432]

Here comes the Science!

Ummm


From June 19 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed:

1,200 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
1,237 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
1,252 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.

I'm imagining "voters" are pretty close to "likely voters".


yes..and if you read my link, you would see that they are close by about 4-7%.
 
2012-06-27 01:18:58 PM

Slaves2Darkness: rev. dave: Being in a deep derp Red state makes my vote for Obama worthless. But I will do it anyway. Would be much more useful in a swing state.

Meh, I'm in a deep Blue state and I'm voting for Rmoney, because I want the US to fail. That is right Mitt Romney is bad choice for gays, is the bad choice for atheists, is bad choice for women, is bad for the economy, is the worst thing to happen to American since George Bush. Vote Romney, because the world needs to burn.


Too bad there's no Romney Joker Photoshop meme yet :D
 
2012-06-27 02:01:49 PM

mrshowrules: WombatControl: there's the question of whether Quinnipiac has a sampling bias towards Obama in these polls

As a Romney supporter it makes sense to "question" the sampling bias of a poll that shows Obama as ahead by 9%, 6%, 4%. You could even try and dig down to the nature of the possible sampling bias.

The sample is that of registered versus likely voters. That could skew the results by as much as 3% in favour of Romney. Instead of 9%, 6%, and 4% leads. It could be 6%, 3% and 1% leads. Much closer to the margins of error now and there is still 6 months 5 months, I mean nearly 4 months to go.

Hopefully the economy will collapse again before election day.


No, if you actually care about what the polls say, you want to dig into the numbers. That's called "thinking critically."

Is there a sampling bias? I looked at the cross-tabs for the Ohio poll, and it seems to under-represent Republicans by about 4%. How did I arrive at that conclusion? Take the 2008 exit poll, which showed Republican turnout at 31% of the electorate in Ohio. The Quinnipiac poll had a weighted sample of 26% Republicans. Now 2008 was an incredibly shiatty year for the GOP, so is it likely that Republican turnout in Ohio will be less in 2012 than it was in 2008? Probably not. So does that mean that the Quinnipiac poll undersampled Ohio Republicans? There's good evidence for it.

But this is why state-by-state polling isn't accurate this far out. You don't know what the demographic breakdown will be. Maybe Democrats will turn out in huge numbers in Ohio and Obama will win by 10%. Maybe Republicans will be energized and will make up 35% of the electorate. You can only guess at this stage.

That's why in every poll you see you should always look at the internals of the poll if you want to actually know what's going on. Because if you have a poll that oversamples one group, that poll will lean towards that group. If you have a poll that's dramatically out of step with prior exit polls, you should question why the pollster made those assumptions.

And yes. Nate Silver does a fantastic job of explaining a lot of this stuff. Yeah, he's a Democrat, but he's a fantastic analyst and worth reading.
 
2012-06-27 03:05:40 PM

WombatControl: mrshowrules: WombatControl: there's the question of whether Quinnipiac has a sampling bias towards Obama in these polls

As a Romney supporter it makes sense to "question" the sampling bias of a poll that shows Obama as ahead by 9%, 6%, 4%. You could even try and dig down to the nature of the possible sampling bias.

The sample is that of registered versus likely voters. That could skew the results by as much as 3% in favour of Romney. Instead of 9%, 6%, and 4% leads. It could be 6%, 3% and 1% leads. Much closer to the margins of error now and there is still 6 months 5 months, I mean nearly 4 months to go.

Hopefully the economy will collapse again before election day.

No, if you actually care about what the polls say, you want to dig into the numbers. That's called "thinking critically."

Is there a sampling bias? I looked at the cross-tabs for the Ohio poll, and it seems to under-represent Republicans by about 4%. How did I arrive at that conclusion? Take the 2008 exit poll, which showed Republican turnout at 31% of the electorate in Ohio. The Quinnipiac poll had a weighted sample of 26% Republicans. Now 2008 was an incredibly shiatty year for the GOP, so is it likely that Republican turnout in Ohio will be less in 2012 than it was in 2008? Probably not. So does that mean that the Quinnipiac poll undersampled Ohio Republicans? There's good evidence for it.

But this is why state-by-state polling isn't accurate this far out. You don't know what the demographic breakdown will be. Maybe Democrats will turn out in huge numbers in Ohio and Obama will win by 10%. Maybe Republicans will be energized and will make up 35% of the electorate. You can only guess at this stage.

That's why in every poll you see you should always look at the internals of the poll if you want to actually know what's going on. Because if you have a poll that oversamples one group, that poll will lean towards that group. If you have a poll that's dramatically out of step with prior exit pol ...


You are really trying to hard and getting it wrong.

1) you are comparing one poll sample with another poll sample as proof of a discrepancy (in this case an exit poll taken 4 years ago).

2) Of course an exit poll is going to show an under sampling of Republicans and Democrats both because 4 months out, many people are still identifying as Independents. Look how high the Independent numbers are for the Quinnipac poll. They are more likely to identify with an actual party in the exit poll (after voting)

3) The sampling discrepancy between a phone poll and an exit poll is largely the discrepancy between who shows up to vote and who doesn't. Yes, this favours Republicans by roughly 3% in the last Presidential election. If the day before an election Obama is leading Romney by less than 3% in battleground states, he is in big trouble. Fortunately, he appears to have a more comfortable margin than that.

Remember there's 4 months to do so don't get stressed out by Obama leading in the polls. Also, don't try to hard to discount it.
 
2012-06-27 03:26:21 PM
Romney needs to get to work. He's in big trouble barring some unforeseen disaster.
 
2012-06-27 03:37:42 PM
mrshowrules:

1.) Not really - because an exit poll is a poll of who actually voted - so that tells you what the demographic makeup of the electorate after a given election actually is. That's important because it gives you a baseline to compare with subsequent polls.

2.) You mean a pre-election poll will show an undersampling of Democrats and Republicans? That might be correct in some cases, but generally the number of people who declare themselves Democrats or Republicans or Independent tends to be constant in an election cycle. The question is whether independent voters vote for one candidate or another - but they don't stop self-identifying as independent.

3.) You're mixing concepts up. A poll of registered voters will, on average show an 3-4% greater advantage for Democrats than a poll of likely voters will.

And while the Quinnipiac poll shows Obama up outside that margin of error, let's look at the other polls, shall we? We'll take Ohio as a reperesntative example.

Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
RCP Average 5/17 - 6/25 -- 46.2 43.6 Obama +2.6
Quinnipiac 6/19 - 6/25 1237 RV 47 38 Obama +9
PPP (D) 6/21 - 6/24 673 RV 47 44 Obama +3
Purple Strategies 5/31 - 6/5 600 LV 45 48 Romney +3
Rasmussen Reports 5/29 - 5/29 500 LV 44 46 Romney +2
NBC News/Marist 5/17 - 5/20 1103 RV 48 42 Obama +6
See All Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Polling Data

The formatting is a bit messed up, but you see no clear trend. Two polls have Obama winning outside the margin of error. Two polls have a narrow Romney lead. And note two other things: the two polls showing Romney ahead are likely voter polls.

The PPP poll is the most interesting one - they show the race narrowing in Ohio. Their previous poll (conducted in early May) had Obama up 7.

Also, remember that individual state-by-state polls don't mean that much now - but what you want to look for is what trends they show. How can you see that? Look at the direction each poll is going over time. Let's do that for Ohio, shall we?

PPP:
6/21 -6/21 Obama +3
5/3 - 5/6 Obama +7
Net change: Obama - 4

NBC News/Marist:
5/17 - 5/20 Obama +6
2/29 - 3/2 Obama +12
Net Change: Obama - 6

Purple Strategies:
5/31 - 6/5 Romney +3
4/19 - 4-23 Obama +5
Net Change: Obama -8

So, what does that tell us? Three separate polls show Obama's lead in Ohio decreasing. One shows the race flipping to Romney. What does that tell us generally? The race in Ohio is getting more competitive rather than less.

We can't tell from this data that one candidate or another is actually ahead or behind - it's too early for that.

That's why I'm not "stressed out" by Obama leading in the polls - today's polls do not, by themselves, prove anything other than where the race is now. What the polls do show is what the trends are. And those trends are that Obama's lead is very weak, there are states such as Michigan that would not normally be competitive that look contestible for Romney, and Obama seems unable to sustain more than 48% of the vote share.

Now, if I were Jim Messina, I would be stressed out by that news. Because when you're an incumbent President, getting stuck below 50% of the vote is not a particularly healthy place to be, especially when you start digging into the trends.
 
2012-06-27 04:24:35 PM

WombatControl: mrshowrules:

1.) Not really - because an exit poll is a poll of who actually voted - so that tells you what the demographic makeup of the electorate after a given election actually is. That's important because it gives you a baseline to compare with subsequent polls.

2.) You mean a pre-election poll will show an undersampling of Democrats and Republicans? That might be correct in some cases, but generally the number of people who declare themselves Democrats or Republicans or Independent tends to be constant in an election cycle. The question is whether independent voters vote for one candidate or another - but they don't stop self-identifying as independent.

3.) You're mixing concepts up. A poll of registered voters will, on average show an 3-4% greater advantage for Democrats than a poll of likely voters will.

And while the Quinnipiac poll shows Obama up outside that margin of error, let's look at the other polls, shall we? We'll take Ohio as a reperesntative example.

Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
RCP Average 5/17 - 6/25 -- 46.2 43.6 Obama +2.6
Quinnipiac 6/19 - 6/25 1237 RV 47 38 Obama +9
PPP (D) 6/21 - 6/24 673 RV 47 44 Obama +3
Purple Strategies 5/31 - 6/5 600 LV 45 48 Romney +3
Rasmussen Reports 5/29 - 5/29 500 LV 44 46 Romney +2
NBC News/Marist 5/17 - 5/20 1103 RV 48 42 Obama +6
See All Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Polling Data

The formatting is a bit messed up, but you see no clear trend. Two polls have Obama winning outside the margin of error. Two polls have a narrow Romney lead. And note two other things: the two polls showing Romney ahead are likely voter polls.

The PPP poll is the most interesting one - they show the race narrowing in Ohio. Their previous poll (conducted in early May) had Obama up 7.

Also, remember that individual state-by-state polls don't mean that much now - but what you want to look for is what trends they show. How can you see that? Look at the direction each poll is going over time. Let's do that for ...


Tell me you seriously didn't reference Purple Strategies? It was literally created by a Bush and Romney campaign advisor and Republic Party pundit?
 
2012-06-27 05:24:16 PM
mrshowrules:

Its other founding partner was Mark Squier, a long-time Democratic operative who worked for Howard Dean and was one of the leaders of the 2008 Democratic National Convention. They have a good mix of Republican and Democratic partners - just because one Romney supporter is a partner doesn't mean that their data is skewed or wrong.

The problem with Purple Strategies is that they don't have a track record to go on yet - they're a new entrant into the field. But there's no reason to dismiss them out of hand yet.
 
2012-06-27 08:54:52 PM

WombatControl: mrshowrules:

Its other founding partner was Mark Squier, a long-time Democratic operative who worked for Howard Dean and was one of the leaders of the 2008 Democratic National Convention. They have a good mix of Republican and Democratic partners - just because one Romney supporter is a partner doesn't mean that their data is skewed or wrong.

The problem with Purple Strategies is that they don't have a track record to go on yet - they're a new entrant into the field. But there's no reason to dismiss them out of hand yet.


Because you would trust a polling organization created by this guy:

ph.cdn.photos.upi.com

If you want farkers to take you seriously, you have to try and be less intellectually dishonest. You frequently have a valid point but you ruin it with you pure partisan desperation sometimes.
 
2012-06-27 09:43:14 PM

Wendy's Chili: Aarontology: Why is Pennsylvania considered a swing state? It hasn't gone for the GOP since 1988

Voter supression, baby!


Holy shiat, that makes me want to vomit.
 
2012-06-28 03:12:41 AM

mrshowrules: WombatControl: there's the question of whether Quinnipiac has a sampling bias towards Obama in these polls

As a Romney supporter it makes sense to "question" the sampling bias of a poll that shows Obama as ahead by 9%, 6%, 4%. You could even try and dig down to the nature of the possible sampling bias.

The sample is that of registered versus likely voters. That could skew the results by as much as 3% in favour of Romney. Instead of 9%, 6%, and 4% leads. It could be 6%, 3% and 1% leads. Much closer to the margins of error now and there is still 6 months 5 months, I mean nearly 4 months to go.

Hopefully the economy will collapse again before election day.


If you're serious and hope for people to suffer economically just so your guy can win, you are a traitor. Wow.
 
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