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(YardBarker)   "The Packers play the Bears 4 times in two seasons. The Packers, being a much better team have an 80% chance of winning each game. What is the probability that the Bears win all four games?"   (network.yardbarker.com) divider line 75
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2503 clicks; posted to Sports » on 16 Jun 2012 at 7:24 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-06-16 02:04:10 PM
Peanut can't do math.
 
2012-06-16 02:48:37 PM
Oh, that's an easy one!

ZERO. >:-)
 
2012-06-16 03:10:27 PM
Ha. Now that's some real life trolling I can support.
 
2012-06-16 03:15:28 PM
Yep. That was one wildly successful troll.
 
2012-06-16 04:34:32 PM
Meh, as a Raiders fan, I only ponder the chances of them winning more than six games a season.......

/it's hard to be a Raiders fan
 
2012-06-16 04:37:17 PM
Packers and Bears sounds like a gay bar.
 
2012-06-16 06:24:27 PM
Chance of winning the first game times chance of winning the second times chance of winning the third times chance of winning the fourth game.

Chance of Bears winning any game = 20% or .2

Chance of Bears winning all four = .2 x .2 x .2 x .2 = .0016 or .16% of winning all four

Chance of Packers winning all four = .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 = .4096 or 40.96% of wining all four.
 
2012-06-16 07:27:52 PM
with emo boy as their QB?
 
2012-06-16 07:44:04 PM
That depends: Is Ditka solving the math problem?
 
2012-06-16 07:44:57 PM
ts3.mm.bing.net
 
2012-06-16 07:49:32 PM
About equally as likely as subby using commas correctly.
 
2012-06-16 08:05:29 PM

TheManofPA: That depends: Is Ditka solving the math problem?


What if Mini Ditka was solving the math problem?
 
2012-06-16 08:12:08 PM

Krustofsky: TheManofPA: That depends: Is Ditka solving the math problem?

What if Mini Ditka was solving the math problem?


One giant Ditka solving the math problem or twelve Mini Ditkas?
 
2012-06-16 08:14:20 PM

The Smails Kid: Krustofsky: TheManofPA: That depends: Is Ditka solving the math problem?

What if Mini Ditka was solving the math problem?

One giant Ditka solving the math problem or twelve Mini Ditkas?


What if it is a regular sized Ditka, but while he's solving it, he has to drive the Bears bus?
 
2012-06-16 08:14:36 PM
The good old binomial formula from any statistics textbook oughta help us with this one.

P(k out of N) = ( N! / k!(N-k)!) * (pk)(qN-k)

where N and K are 4, P is .2 and Q is .8, says that the probability of the Bears winning all four games when they have a 20% chance of winning any single game is only .0016%

The Bears aren't bad, but I'd say that's about right.
 
2012-06-16 08:19:45 PM
Oh, and the 2nd part of the question (what is probability Bears win at least one game), is their odds of winning exactly all four + the odds of winning exactly three + odds of exactly two + odds of exactly one.

So .0016+ .0256+ .1536 + .4096 = .5904

So 59% of winning at least one.
 
2012-06-16 08:20:32 PM

Why Would I Read the Article: here N and K are 4, P is .2 and Q is .8, says that the probability of the Bears winning all four games when they have a 20% chance of winning any single game is only .0016%


I'm an idiot. It's .16%, not .0016%. Math is hard.
 
2012-06-16 08:25:29 PM

Why Would I Read the Article: Why Would I Read the Article: here N and K are 4, P is .2 and Q is .8, says that the probability of the Bears winning all four games when they have a 20% chance of winning any single game is only .0016%

I'm an idiot. It's .16%, not .0016%. Math is hard.


Yes you are. And your notation stinks too. You are missing some exponents and your variables change from upper to lower case for no reason.
 
2012-06-16 08:27:04 PM
The problem's unsolvable as written. You can only multiply the probabilities if the results of the individual games are independent of each other, and I see no reason why that assumption is anywhere close to reasonable.
 
2012-06-16 08:33:13 PM

Krustofsky: TheManofPA: That depends: Is Ditka solving the math problem?

What if Mini Ditka was solving the math problem?



i.imgur.com
 
2012-06-16 08:36:06 PM

kevinatilusa: The problem's unsolvable as written. You can only multiply the probabilities if the results of the individual games are independent of each other, and I see no reason why that assumption is anywhere close to reasonable.


It seems less reasonable than assuming (taking the classic example) that coin flips are independent. Coins don't get concussions.

However, the problem states clearly that the Packers have an 80% chance each time, and hey, you can only solve the problem you're given.
 
2012-06-16 08:36:51 PM
Do Bears fans really hate the Packers?

I've always thought of it as a favorite enemy thing, not hatred.

/ At least we all hate Dallas
 
2012-06-16 08:48:10 PM

jaytkay: Do Bears fans really hate the Packers?

I've always thought of it as a favorite enemy thing, not hatred.

/ At least we all hate Dallas


No. But the Packers fans are pretty goddamn smug for being a bunch of perpetual alcoholics.
 
2012-06-16 08:58:43 PM

jaytkay: Do Bears fans really hate the Packers?



I for one respect the hell of out the Packers. That doesn't mean I want them to do well, but the history between Halas and Lambeau defines the sport. They hated each other, but like brothers.

And what a great all time W/L record between them: 184 games, and Chicago finally snapped the Favre streak to lead the record to 92-86-6. It was lobsided for a while there. Respect!!


/I do hate the Vikings though.......
 
2012-06-16 09:01:12 PM

Why Would I Read the Article: Oh, and the 2nd part of the question (what is probability Bears win at least one game), is their odds of winning exactly all four + the odds of winning exactly three + odds of exactly two + odds of exactly one.

So .0016+ .0256+ .1536 + .4096 = .5904



The other way to think about this problem is that "The bears winning at least one" is the complement of "The bears losing all four." So you can calculate the easier probability that the bears lose all four and subtract from one:

1 - 0.8^4 = 1 - 0.4096 = 0.5904
 
2012-06-16 09:01:55 PM

Lando Lincoln: But the Packers fans are pretty goddamn smug for being a bunch of perpetual alcoholics.


I...I...don't understand how these two should be mutually exclusive.
 
2012-06-16 09:15:02 PM
I thought the Bears lost all their games.

Every time I ask people "How about those Bears?" they always answer "They're losers."
 
2012-06-16 09:18:47 PM
Charles Tillman is a good guy. That's all.
 
2012-06-16 09:20:52 PM

Boudica's War Tampon: I thought the Bears lost all their games.

Every time I ask people "How about those Bears?" they always answer "They're losers."


Huh. I keeping hearing they are godless killing machines.
 
2012-06-16 09:25:14 PM
Only one guy in the thread has gotten it right. The rest of you...god help you. Don't do your own taxes.
 
2012-06-16 09:29:50 PM

GrySovCob: Only one guy in the thread has gotten it right. The rest of you...god help you. Don't do your own taxes.


Why, thank you. It's nice to be appreciated. ^_^
 
2012-06-16 09:47:11 PM
No one got it right. The problem is unanswerable as written because ties are allowed in regular season games.
 
2012-06-16 09:52:00 PM
Normally if you go one-on-one with another team you have a fifty-fifty chance of winning. But the Packers are genetic freaks, and they're not normal. You've got a 20%, at best, of beating them. And then you add in referees to the mix, your chances of winning drastically go down. See, the division games, at Lambeau, you have a 33 and 1/3 chance of winning, but I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, cause the Bears know they can't beat them, and they're not even gonna try. So Bears fans, you take your 33 and 1/3 chance, minus the Packers' 20% chance, and you've got an 8 and 1/3 chance of winning at Lambeau. But then you take the Packers' 75% chance of winning, if they were to go one-on-one, and then add 66 and 2/3 percent, the Packers have 141 and 2/3 percent chance of winning at Lambeau. You see Bears, the numbers don't lie.

i.imgur.com
 
2012-06-16 09:55:00 PM

usernameguy: No one got it right. The problem is unanswerable as written because ties are allowed in regular season games.


We've eliminated one Fark handle as Donovan McNabb's.
 
2012-06-16 10:01:29 PM

Hock: You see Bears, the numbers don't lie.


You remember the Hiro Jima? Remember when the Pearl Harbor bombed the Germans? It's D-Day all over again, baby.
 
2012-06-16 10:03:50 PM
1/625

probability is more useful to your common joe, as well as easier to learn, than algebra or trigonometry and yet our schools insist on teaching the latter in neglect of the former.
 
2012-06-16 10:07:06 PM

kevinatilusa: The problem's unsolvable as written.


Yes, what if they have a playoff game sometime in the next two seasons? Then there will be more than four games.
 
2012-06-16 10:20:44 PM
"It's a bullshiat question, it's impossible to answer."

Obscure?
 
2012-06-16 10:21:54 PM

MAYORBOB: "It's a bullshiat question, it's impossible to answer."

Obscure?


No, My Cousin Vinny is not obscure.
 
2012-06-16 10:24:16 PM
But in the real world they will split the four game series. Talent and skill fall by the wayside in a rivalry game.
 
2012-06-16 10:27:24 PM
Players can't afford to hate anyone any more, because with free agency mucking up the teams each year, they may be your team next year.

Great Packers-Bears story. sorta - when George Allen broke his contract as George Halas's defensive coach to become head coach with the Rams, Halas was royally honked off and vented at a league meeting: "Nobody should hire George Allen! Allen is a cheat! Allen is a charlatan! He cannot be trusted!"

At which point Vince Lombardi leaned over to Rams owner Dan Reeves and said "Dan, sounds like you got a helluva coach."
 
2012-06-16 10:27:54 PM
1.bp.blogspot.com
 
2012-06-16 10:30:07 PM

MAYORBOB: "It's a bullshiat question, it's impossible to answer."


That is the only line in that movie that was nonsense. There is no way a judge that has spent the entire movie preaching rules and decorum would allow that kind of language in his courtroom. Plus, Pecsi's character did such a good job in befriending the jury (such as calling the elderly black lady "dear") that such language would have alienated such a genteel jury.

/This has bothered me for years.
//Yes. I have no life.
 
2012-06-16 10:31:01 PM
Oh, I guess my threadjack tags were removed. I didn't think of that.

Sorry for the threadjack.
 
2012-06-16 10:50:39 PM

robsul82: MAYORBOB: "It's a bullshiat question, it's impossible to answer."

Obscure?

No, My Cousin Vinny is not obscure.


No? How about "never tell me the odds!"?
 
2012-06-16 11:07:26 PM

Lando Lincoln: jaytkay: Do Bears fans really hate the Packers?

I've always thought of it as a favorite enemy thing, not hatred.

/ At least we all hate Dallas

No. But the Packers fans are pretty goddamn smug for being a bunch of perpetual alcoholics.


We are not smug, just alcoholics. I am not a huge sports fan, but I can say out of the Vikings, Packers, and Bears fans, the Vikings fans are worse. They are really big assholes, and honestly wish players to get hurt. Packers and Bear fans can go either way, they are either really considerate and just love the game of football, and respect other fans or they are just asses.
 
2012-06-16 11:39:28 PM
I like how Tillman reacts like the problem was making fun of kids with cancer or something. It is just a freakin' football team.
 
2012-06-16 11:48:54 PM
Bears Fans...Packers Fans...they all die of heart attacks...they spent the last 50 years beating each other up so back neither of them could get out of the first round of the playoffs...Truth hurts

...some pretty good fights in the stands though


///packers fan
 
2012-06-17 12:20:32 AM
"Order up! One order of butt-hurt with a side of self-righteous indignation and a Waaaahh-nilla shake! Mr. Tillman...your order is up!"
 
2012-06-17 12:50:30 AM
Who's the bookie offering that bet? I wouldn't mind turning a dollar into 500.
 
2012-06-17 01:09:19 AM

Lando Lincoln: jaytkay: Do Bears fans really hate the Packers?

I've always thought of it as a favorite enemy thing, not hatred.

/ At least we all hate Dallas

No. But the Packers fans are pretty goddamn smug for being a bunch of perpetual alcoholics.


attendingtheworld.files.wordpress.com
 
2012-06-17 01:21:41 AM
Chicago against Green Bay since the beginning of the 2004-05 season:

Straight up - CHI 8-9 - 47.1%
ATS - CHI 7-9-1 - 43.8%

Over-Under-Push
5-12-0 - 29.4%

Average points:
Chicago 17.6 - GB 19.1

Take GB and the points. Parlay with the Under. Buy me a drink when you are in town,
 
2012-06-17 01:23:56 AM
Well, GB minus the points I guess. tomato or potato.
 
2012-06-17 01:27:17 AM
Home or away makes no farking difference. But that under is golden.
 
2012-06-17 01:44:22 AM

Neeek: robsul82: MAYORBOB: "It's a bullshiat question, it's impossible to answer."

Obscure?

No, My Cousin Vinny is not obscure.

No? How about "never tell me the odds!"?


3,720 to 1
 
2012-06-17 02:16:02 AM

teto85: Chance of winning the first game times chance of winning the second times chance of winning the third times chance of winning the fourth game.

Chance of Bears winning any game = 20% or .2

Chance of Bears winning all four = .2 x .2 x .2 x .2 = .0016 or .16% of winning all four

Chance of Packers winning all four = .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 = .4096 or 40.96% of wining all four.


You nailed it. Everyone else: Stop. Please just stop.
 
2012-06-17 03:08:42 AM

wallywam1: teto85: Chance of winning the first game times chance of winning the second times chance of winning the third times chance of winning the fourth game.

Chance of Bears winning any game = 20% or .2

Chance of Bears winning all four = .2 x .2 x .2 x .2 = .0016 or .16% of winning all four

Chance of Packers winning all four = .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 = .4096 or 40.96% of wining all four.

You nailed it. Everyone else: Stop. Please just stop.


Yeah. Well, except for the fact he's wrong.

P(Bears winning any game against the Packers) is less than .2.
If you think that is insignificant, I have some football bets I'd like to make with you.
 
2012-06-17 03:22:20 AM

tedeb: wallywam1: teto85: Chance of winning the first game times chance of winning the second times chance of winning the third times chance of winning the fourth game.

Chance of Bears winning any game = 20% or .2

Chance of Bears winning all four = .2 x .2 x .2 x .2 = .0016 or .16% of winning all four

Chance of Packers winning all four = .8 x .8 x .8 x .8 = .4096 or 40.96% of wining all four.

You nailed it. Everyone else: Stop. Please just stop.

Yeah. Well, except for the fact he's wrong.

P(Bears winning any game against the Packers) is less than .2.
If you think that is insignificant, I have some football bets I'd like to make with you.


I wouldn't bet on the Bears against the Packers any time this century. I'm just talking' 'bout the math. Can you dig?
 
2012-06-17 09:03:35 AM
Your typical Packers fan:
chicitysportsfan.com

Can you imagine actually wearing those horrific jerseys? Say what you want about the Bears but at least you won't look like a visual representation of pissing on grass.
 
2012-06-17 10:52:19 AM
Bears fans have been angry ever since they discovered that Green Bay knew how to find quarterbacks and their team didn't.
 
2012-06-17 11:22:50 AM
Da Bears are one of the few teams in the NFL that can stop Rodgers. The games we've lost recently...we lost ourselves with terrible offensive play.
 
2012-06-17 01:38:31 PM
Still pissed that we let the packers in the playoffs
 
2012-06-17 01:44:53 PM

Mini Ditka: jaytkay: Do Bears fans really hate the Packers?


I for one respect the hell of out the Packers. That doesn't mean I want them to do well, but the history between Halas and Lambeau defines the sport. They hated each other, but like brothers.

And what a great all time W/L record between them: 184 games, and Chicago finally snapped the Favre streak to lead the record to 92-86-6. It was lobsided for a while there. Respect!!


/I do hate the Vikings though.......


As a lifelong Packer fan stuck in MN now I agree wholeheartedly with MiniDitka. I respect the rivalry between the only true Black and Blue division teams. Until recently, the Lions weren't worth mentioning. And the Vikings.....well, their fans are the most fair weather idiot fans I've ever seen.

/Please get me out of here
 
2012-06-17 01:52:18 PM
Agreed. Minnesota sports fans are far and away the worst. One of the many things I miss about Wisconsin

/beer on Sundays, etc.
 
2012-06-17 07:14:55 PM

X_Legend: Mini Ditka: jaytkay: Do Bears fans really hate the Packers?


I for one respect the hell of out the Packers. That doesn't mean I want them to do well, but the history between Halas and Lambeau defines the sport. They hated each other, but like brothers.

And what a great all time W/L record between them: 184 games, and Chicago finally snapped the Favre streak to lead the record to 92-86-6. It was lobsided for a while there. Respect!!


/I do hate the Vikings though.......

As a lifelong Packer fan stuck in MN now I agree wholeheartedly with MiniDitka. I respect the rivalry between the only true Black and Blue division teams. Until recently, the Lions weren't worth mentioning. And the Vikings.....well, their fans are the most fair weather idiot fans I've ever seen.

/Please get me out of here


OH SO MUCH THIS
 
2012-06-17 08:06:48 PM

alltim: [1.bp.blogspot.com image 640x426]


so your saying both teams are gay, got it.
 
2012-06-17 09:49:03 PM

jaytkay: Do Bears fans really hate the Packers?

I've always thought of it as a favorite enemy thing, not hatred.

/ At least we all hate Dallas


It's not the Packers we hate. Most of us respect the Packers.

No, it's the Packers fans we hate.
 
2012-06-17 11:30:40 PM

Wonderduck: jaytkay: Do Bears fans really hate the Packers?

I've always thought of it as a favorite enemy thing, not hatred.

/ At least we all hate Dallas

It's not the Packers we hate. Most of us respect the Packers.

No, it's the Packers fans we hate.



I almost wanted to agree, but I can necessarily say I hate packer ~fans~ either. Do I want to duct tape them to a stop sign in nothing but their underwear? Yes. Do I want a majority of their players crying after any given game? Yes. Do I think of them as the mentally challenged little brother who you let in the game out of sympathy? Yes.

Hate? no. Heck, I always bring a packers fan with me to Bears games. I get to park in the handicapped spots that way.
 
2012-06-18 09:07:46 AM

X_Legend: Mini Ditka: jaytkay: Do Bears fans really hate the Packers?


I for one respect the hell of out the Packers. That doesn't mean I want them to do well, but the history between Halas and Lambeau defines the sport. They hated each other, but like brothers.

And what a great all time W/L record between them: 184 games, and Chicago finally snapped the Favre streak to lead the record to 92-86-6. It was lobsided for a while there. Respect!!


/I do hate the Vikings though.......

As a lifelong Packer fan stuck in MN now I agree wholeheartedly with MiniDitka. I respect the rivalry between the only true Black and Blue division teams. Until recently, the Lions weren't worth mentioning. And the Vikings.....well, their fans are the most fair weather idiot fans I've ever seen.

/Please get me out of here


I agree. I enjoy the rivalry with the Bears, hell we even celebrate Bear week when they are coming up on the schedule. It's like two brothers going at it.

The Vikings fans are the retarded little neighbor boy who always wants to join up and throws a big tantrum when he doesn't get his way.
 
2012-06-18 10:31:42 AM
Of course, since both teams play in the NFC, there's the unknown variable of whether Aaron Rogers will have his leg broken by a bounty-hunting Saints player, which might alter the odds.
 
2012-06-18 11:29:10 AM

Wonderduck: jaytkay: Do Bears fans really hate the Packers?

I've always thought of it as a favorite enemy thing, not hatred.

/ At least we all hate Dallas

It's not the Packers we hate. Most of us respect the Packers.

No, it's the Packers fans we hate.


Come at me bro.

/packer 4 life
 
2012-06-18 11:57:03 AM

jaytkay: Do Bears fans really hate the Packers?

I've always thought of it as a favorite enemy thing, not hatred.

/ At least we all hate Dallas


Correct. We respect the Bears. It's the oldest NFL rivalry, after all.

Hate is reserved for the Vikings, but that's probably diminishing now that they're back to being a joke.
 
2012-06-18 12:00:14 PM
I'm a Bears fan, and I respect the Packers. People who get too wrapped up in rivalries have seriously farked up priorities in life.
 
2012-06-18 12:15:45 PM
Geaux Bears?

Nobody up here says that.

/yes I know he went to school down south.
 
2012-06-19 03:01:01 AM
As a Packer fan, I have to say this...

Are Bears fans incredibly annoying? Of course. Do they have delusions as to how good their team is? Duh. Do I enjoy seeing them suffer? Absofarkinglutely.

But even then, I still have respect for the Bears organization and history, as it is very similar to ours, and seeing two old time rivals go at it is ALWAYS one of the best things to watch, win or lose.

Vikings fans, on the other hand, I have special hate for. They're the fans that talk a lot of shiat, but haven't won shiat. The ones who are obsessed with a team more successful than they are, and end up talking a lot of shiat, but behind all that talk lies an empty trophy case and a history of epic failures.

Though I'm starting to hate Lions fans now that their team started getting good. They're not as bad as Vikings fans, but close. They're even MORE delusional about their team (and being a Packer fan, that's saying a lot), and whine and moan whenever things don't go their way. Every single loss, they try to pin on the officiating crew. I can understand one or two, but EVERY LOSS? Seriously, the only fans in any sport that I hate more than Lions fans are Vikings fans, Cubs fans, and Mexican national team soccer fans.
 
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