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(Some Guy)   After exit polls miss 7 point win, CNN already declaring they know Wisconsin election results in November because of polling   (roaringrepublican.com) divider line 89
    More: Ironic, CNN, Wisconsin, exit polls, socialist country  
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1598 clicks; posted to Politics » on 06 Jun 2012 at 9:55 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-06-06 08:10:54 AM
Up until this week the media had been reporting polling showing either a tie or only a slim margin as the likely result.

Well there's an outright lie.
 
2012-06-06 08:53:11 AM
What is this? The Day of the Crappy Blogs?
 
2012-06-06 08:56:58 AM

MaudlinMutantMollusk: What is this? The Day of the Crappy Blogs?


We need to hole up in the mall with a supply of shotguns, I believe. Don't get bitten by a blogger.
 
2012-06-06 08:59:22 AM

Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: MaudlinMutantMollusk: What is this? The Day of the Crappy Blogs?

We need to hole up in the mall with a supply of shotguns, I believe. Don't get bitten by a blogger.


Most of them seem to suck more than bite
 
2012-06-06 09:58:41 AM
*Crappy Blog Warning*

Not actual news link.
 
2012-06-06 09:59:46 AM
CNN already declaring they know Wisconsin election results in November because of polling

No they aren't.
 
2012-06-06 10:01:49 AM

MaudlinMutantMollusk: What is this? The Day of the Crappy Blogs?


Isn't the day after every election The Day of the Crappy Blogs anymore?
 
2012-06-06 10:02:06 AM
Subby, your blog sucks.
 
2012-06-06 10:02:17 AM
There's around thirty million things they apparently didn't take into account.
 
2012-06-06 10:04:02 AM
Seriously, was there ANYONE following this election who didn't know Walker had a 7% lead in polls going into it yesterday?
 
2012-06-06 10:08:17 AM

Millennium: MaudlinMutantMollusk: What is this? The Day of the Crappy Blogs?

Isn't the day after every election The Day of the Crappy Blogs anymore?


Everyday on fark is crappy blog day, for some reason the mods are incapable of greenlighting any intelligent conservative arguments. There must be some out there...
 
2012-06-06 10:08:51 AM
After Zimmerman, I think CNN, NBC, MSNBC, and ABC saw the writing on the wall and are not even going to pretend to hide their liberal bias from now on.

/farking proper random sampling techniques
//how do they work?
 
2012-06-06 10:09:08 AM
You blog and understanding of statistical extrapolation both suck.
 
2012-06-06 10:09:44 AM

Jackson Herring: Seriously, was there ANYONE following this election who didn't know Walker had a 7% lead in polls going into it yesterday?


nate silver had walker at a 95 percent chance to win.

incidentally, exit polls showed obama favored over romney 51-44. so there's that.
 
2012-06-06 10:10:51 AM

FlashHarry: Jackson Herring: Seriously, was there ANYONE following this election who didn't know Walker had a 7% lead in polls going into it yesterday?

nate silver had walker at a 95 percent chance to win.

incidentally, exit polls showed obama favored over romney 51-44. so there's that.


Which doesn't make any farking sense.
 
2012-06-06 10:10:52 AM

Jackson Herring: Seriously, was there ANYONE following this election who didn't know Walker had a 7% lead in polls going into it yesterday?


Every non-conservative on this web site, for one. They've been beating the war drum for months about how they were going to kick Walker's ass. Yankees fans show more humility.
 
2012-06-06 10:12:27 AM

Headso: veryday on fark is crappy blog day, for some reason the mods are incapable of greenlighting any intelligent conservative arguments. There must be some out there...


no you see THE LIBS chased away all of the intelligent conservative arguments and furthermore
 
2012-06-06 10:13:33 AM
www.terrariaonline.com
 
2012-06-06 10:14:55 AM
Isn't a big disparity in exit polls and the election results typically a red flag that someone was messing with the election results? There's no evidence of hijinks as far as I know, but I wouldn't really put it past Walker to try something to push a votes his way.

/Just sayin'
 
2012-06-06 10:15:45 AM
beta_plus is going to shiat on every thread today, isn't he?
 
2012-06-06 10:15:58 AM
Is it just me, or does subby not know what "exit polls" are?
 
2012-06-06 10:17:10 AM
Exit polls? People are just ashamed to say that they voted for Walker.
 
2012-06-06 10:18:36 AM
The exit polls seemed to skew more towards Barrett, but even with that caveat, Obama's likely to win Wisconsin.

But likely doesn't mean "sure." Romney can force Obama to spend money defending Wisconsin, which means that Obama has to divert money and resources from other states that could swing towards Romney. And it opens up new avenues for an Electoral College win for Romney - he could in theory lose Ohio but still win by picking up Iowa and Wisconsin. (That is very unlikely though.)

Yes, in the end I don't see Obama losing Wisconsin, at least not with the data we have. But saying that the Walker win is somehow a victory for Obama is just stupid. It's not, and while it's not a major setback for Obama, it adds on to the sense that Obama is anything but inevitable.
 
2012-06-06 10:18:52 AM

tnpir: beta_plus is going to shiat on every thread today, isn't he?


Well, someone did buy me TotalFark last night for a month. I guess that after ages of being falsely accused, I am now truly a paid schill for Republicans. Can't let my employer down.

/if my sponsor is reading this, BTW, thank you, that was really nice of you
 
2012-06-06 10:22:41 AM

WombatControl: The exit polls seemed to skew more towards Barrett, but even with that caveat, Obama's likely to win Wisconsin.

But likely doesn't mean "sure." Romney can force Obama to spend money defending Wisconsin, which means that Obama has to divert money and resources from other states that could swing towards Romney. And it opens up new avenues for an Electoral College win for Romney - he could in theory lose Ohio but still win by picking up Iowa and Wisconsin. (That is very unlikely though.)

Yes, in the end I don't see Obama losing Wisconsin, at least not with the data we have. But saying that the Walker win is somehow a victory for Obama is just stupid. It's not, and while it's not a major setback for Obama, it adds on to the sense that Obama is anything but inevitable.


Oh, I don't know about that. It's not a victory, to be sure, but if Obama has a sizable lead in a state that just re-elected Scott Walker? That's probably the best news the DNC is going to get for a while.
 
2012-06-06 10:23:07 AM
YOUR BLOG SUCKS
 
2012-06-06 10:23:31 AM

WombatControl: But saying that the Walker win is somehow a victory for Obama is just stupid.


I don't necessarily think it stupid, it's probably a bit of spin and looking on the bright side but there is something to be said about the idea that losing this recall would have fired up republicans for November on a level above and beyond where they are right now.
 
2012-06-06 10:24:24 AM
Barrett isnt quite as boring a choice as Romney. But he is close. So yeah, the incumbent will win again.
 
2012-06-06 10:24:31 AM

lilbjorn: Exit polls? People are just ashamed to say that they voted for Walker.


Exit polls always have self selection issues. In this election, the young, and the pro Barrett voters have been much more vocal and willing to discuss their positions. On the other hand the red neck hicks that voted in large numbers for Walker are much more likely to tell exit pollsters to go fark themselves.
 
2012-06-06 10:26:33 AM

qorkfiend: FlashHarry: Jackson Herring: Seriously, was there ANYONE following this election who didn't know Walker had a 7% lead in polls going into it yesterday?

nate silver had walker at a 95 percent chance to win.

incidentally, exit polls showed obama favored over romney 51-44. so there's that.

Which doesn't make any farking sense.


I voted for Obama in '08 and I will again in '12, but if I was in Wisconsin still I'd have voted to keep Walker for two reasons. One: I don't support public sector unions. Two: Even if I did, it's not a recall-able offense. Walker didn't commit a crime or overstep his authority, so a recall is not appropriate IMO.
 
2012-06-06 10:28:33 AM

SkittlesAreYum: YOUR BLOG SUCKS


Well, today is going to be national sucky blog day. Democrats banked too much on the recall election, going as far as sending Clinton to campaign for Barret, and still they felt short. It was an embarrassing loss.
 
2012-06-06 10:34:03 AM
Liberal agitators, union thugs, the mainstream media and the Democrat Party did everything possible to take down the job creator, and they lost.

Stopped reading there.

Seriously, Fark needs to stop linking to shiat like this in their attempt to appear politically "balanced".
 
2012-06-06 10:34:46 AM

Zerochance: SkittlesAreYum: YOUR BLOG SUCKS

Well, today is going to be national sucky blog day. Democrats banked too much on the recall election, going as far as sending Clinton to campaign for Barret, and still they felt short. It was an embarrassing loss.


It was a half effort on the part of the Democrats. They should have been campaigning on this hardcore. Obama barely even mentioned what was happening in Wisconsin, and Clinton only went very late in the cycle. The national party gave almost no support to the Dems, so it's no wonder it failed.

Wisconsin gets the government they deserve, since apparently they like it.
 
2012-06-06 10:35:46 AM
As Nate Silver pointed out last night, the exit polls in every recent election have been exceedingly accurate except for those taken in 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010.
 
2012-06-06 10:37:16 AM

qorkfiend: FlashHarry: Jackson Herring: Seriously, was there ANYONE following this election who didn't know Walker had a 7% lead in polls going into it yesterday?

nate silver had walker at a 95 percent chance to win.

incidentally, exit polls showed obama favored over romney 51-44. so there's that.

Which doesn't make any farking sense.




Sure it does. It means a large number of Obama supporters voted for Walker and against the unions.
 
2012-06-06 10:37:54 AM

SkittlesAreYum: One: I don't support public sector unions.


Why not?

Two: Even if I did, it's not a recall-able offense. Walker didn't commit a crime or overstep his authority, so a recall is not appropriate IMO.

Does the Wisconsin constitution say that a recall is only appropriate if the target of the recall committed a crime? If not, why were Dems so kind to him? I don't recall people in California worrying whether Gray Davis had committed a crime when recalling him.
 
2012-06-06 10:40:21 AM
THIS JUST IN: CNN exit polls show Wolf Blitzer winning by a commanding $8,500 margin on Jeopardy.

www.accesshollywood.com

/what is "a clueless douchebag, Alex?"
 
2012-06-06 10:42:08 AM

MaudlinMutantMollusk: What is this? The Day of the Crappy Blogs?


Mynd you, bløg bites Kan be pretti nasti.
 
2012-06-06 10:44:51 AM
Lolling at anyone who believes Romney's going to win Wisconsin in November.

Seriously.
 
2012-06-06 10:46:02 AM

xtragrind: qorkfiend: FlashHarry: Jackson Herring: Seriously, was there ANYONE following this election who didn't know Walker had a 7% lead in polls going into it yesterday?

nate silver had walker at a 95 percent chance to win.

incidentally, exit polls showed obama favored over romney 51-44. so there's that.

Which doesn't make any farking sense.



Sure it does. It means a large number of Obama supporters voted for Walker and against the unions.


I know. That still doesn't make any sense. It's a bit strange to conceive of someone supporting both Scott Walker and Barack Obama. I suppose there could be a strong sentiment of "This recall is wholly unnecessary", as someone pointed out upthread; I suppose being anti-recall and pro-Obama isn't that far-fetched.
 
2012-06-06 10:46:44 AM
It's Crappy Blog Day, Crappy Blog Day
Gotta get down on Crappy Blog Day
 
2012-06-06 10:47:56 AM
Most of the people who voted for Walker were poor people who resent the benefits and pay union workers make. So they voted for the interests of the rich instead.

This is the reality of American politics. The rich are playing the poor off against the even poorer.
 
2012-06-06 10:50:19 AM

Mad_Radhu: Isn't a big disparity in exit polls and the election results typically a red flag that someone was messing with the election results? There's no evidence of hijinks as far as I know, but I wouldn't really put it past Walker to try something to push a votes his way.

/Just sayin'


Only if a Democrat wins. If a Republican wins, it's just the liberal bias of the pollsters.

By the way, it isn't uncommon for independents to vote for different parties at different levels in the government. That's a primary sign of being an independent.
 
2012-06-06 10:50:26 AM

Mad_Radhu: Isn't a big disparity in exit polls and the election results typically a red flag that someone was messing with the election results? There's no evidence of hijinks as far as I know, but I wouldn't really put it past Walker to try something to push a votes his way.

/Just sayin'


Exit polls dont mean anything in America, only in brown countries with lots of natural resources.
 
2012-06-06 10:53:47 AM

Jackson Herring: Seriously, was there ANYONE following this election who didn't know Walker had a 7% lead in polls going into it yesterday?


Yes, that fact was reasonably well-buried by the MSM. When I told my wife about the polling that showed Walker ahead, she denied it, citing the NYT, local paper (AP story) and NPR stories she'd read/heard, all of which had merely described it in the runup to the election as a "close race." The first time she ever heard a reference to a 7-point lead, other than from me, was on one of the post-election analyses we were watching last night. She's not the political junkie that I am, but she's a reasonably well-informed person.

The fact also might have been lost on Barrett himself, whose publicly-leaked polling allegedly showed a dead heat.
 
2012-06-06 10:54:53 AM
SInce this is half-assed analysis day I'm stepping up to the plate.

Walker won because of guilt. Not his guilt but the guilt too many voters felt about their childhoods when the goofy-looking kids were subjected to relentless taunting by heartless classmates.

You can't look at Walker's face without seeing the guy red-faced over some atomic wedgie inflicted by a high school jock. You know you laughed, now you show how much you've grown by casting your vote for the sad sack.

A victory for the dorks.
 
2012-06-06 10:58:31 AM

tnpir: beta_plus is going to shiat on every thread today, isn't he?

 
2012-06-06 11:01:28 AM

qorkfiend: Oh, I don't know about that. It's not a victory, to be sure, but if Obama has a sizable lead in a state that just re-elected Scott Walker? That's probably the best news the DNC is going to get for a while.


That's really bad for the DNC then. Remember, Obama won WI in 2008 by 14 points.

So, let's assume that the shift in voter preferences in Wisconsin will resemble the 2012 Presidential vote - now, that's probably a bad assumption to make for a host of reasons, but let's run with it for shiats and giggles.

The exit polls showed Obama ahead of Romney by 9%, which means that we'll say that Obama's total vote share will be down by 5% (14% in 2008, 9% in 2012).

But the exit polls also skewed in favor of Barret by a decent margin - we'll approximate and say that the exit polls were 3% more favorable to Democrats than Republicans. So that represents a vote shift of 8%.

Now, you can figure out from the 2008 results what that would mean in terms of the total national vote and the Electoral College. If the 2012 electorate was 8% more favorable to the Republicans than it was in 2008, that means that Romney would win Ohio, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, and one district in Nebraska. That doesn't mean Romney wins - Obama would still eke out a narrow win with 272 electoral votes. But it does mean the race is tight.

If you throw either Iowa or Colorado into the mix, Romney wins in the electoral college.

Now, this is very rough math and a very basic analysis. I happen to think that the swing will be greater than 8%. But what this shows you is why the exit polls in Wisconsin are not good for Obama -because if the Wisconsin exit polls showed a national trend, it would mean that Obama would only narrowly win in the electoral college, and could easily lose.

Romney doesn't have to win Wisconsin to win the Presidency, but every dollar he can make Obama spend there is one less dollar that Obama can spend in other key swing states.
 
2012-06-06 11:01:49 AM

qorkfiend: xtragrind: qorkfiend: FlashHarry: Jackson Herring: Seriously, was there ANYONE following this election who didn't know Walker had a 7% lead in polls going into it yesterday?

nate silver had walker at a 95 percent chance to win.

incidentally, exit polls showed obama favored over romney 51-44. so there's that.

Which doesn't make any farking sense.



Sure it does. It means a large number of Obama supporters voted for Walker and against the unions.

I know. That still doesn't make any sense. It's a bit strange to conceive of someone supporting both Scott Walker and Barack Obama. I suppose there could be a strong sentiment of "This recall is wholly unnecessary", as someone pointed out upthread; I suppose being anti-recall and pro-Obama isn't that far-fetched.


I don't think it made any sense to put up the candidate who lost in 2010 to run against Walker in the recall.
 
2012-06-06 11:03:56 AM

Cletus C.: A victory for the dorks.


The 10:1 spending ratio between Republicans and Democrats might have had more to do with it.

Although I agree with you - the man's left eye is trying to escape and will be in his hairline by 2015.
 
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