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(BusinessWeek)   The setup of the 17-country euro currency union is unsustainable, the head of the European Central Bank told EU leaders, after apparently waking up from a three-year nap   (businessweek.com) divider line 55
    More: Obvious, European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, Dexia, government finance, monetary union, European Parliament, national governments  
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3314 clicks; posted to Business » on 01 Jun 2012 at 9:33 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-06-01 09:38:48 AM  
In before "Welcome to Obama's America!".

/derp
 
2012-06-01 09:41:51 AM  
Wow, they really are green-lighting everything today. Is Drew on vacation or something?

/subby
 
2012-06-01 09:43:40 AM  
Three years? Try since the beginning of the euro project.
 
2012-06-01 09:44:42 AM  
This is actually good for America....the dollar is becoming stronger. That means you get more for your money. Of course Obama will take credit....just watch.
 
2012-06-01 09:45:38 AM  
Oh great. Time for civilization to collapse.
 
2012-06-01 09:46:02 AM  
This crap has been going on well before Obama

There has yet been a GOP president to bring the US out of the IMF, World Bank, UN, and other failed globalist entities.

Heck, the GOP (along with many Dems) are still trying to create a North American Union with a continent-wide "Amero" currency.....even as the EU and Euro implode

Obama unfortunately is just acting like the Bush's when it comes to failed global economic ideas. He would actually get a good number ofGOP voter support if he just said "F-- the EU, World Bank, IMF"
 
2012-06-01 09:49:53 AM  
And they're just figuring this out now?
 
2012-06-01 09:54:04 AM  
Talked to a vendor about ten days ago. Before changing fields, he got his masters degree ten years ago in international business finance, focusing on the Euro. From his workups back then, his opinion hasn't changed, and he is pretty opinionated. The Euro was always unsustainable, he posited back then and today. Asked on Greece exit, he said that the global economy will work out if Greece leaves, and maybe if Spain leaves (he mentioned one other country I forget).

But he was strangely firm on his current opinion that, if the entire Euro collapses before Fall 2013, the global economy won't be able to handle the shock. If the Euro collapses, say, in mid 2014, it won't be near as bad. I have no idea what his criteria was for judging it - he mentioned the way the current slowdown was recovering, both in the US and abroad - but he was pretty firm talking for a guy wanting to sell us stuff completely unrelated to finance.

TL;DR: If the Euro collapses within a year, bad things will happen, after a year, maybe not so bad.
 
2012-06-01 09:54:55 AM  

UCFRoadWarrior: This crap has been going on well before Obama

There has yet been a GOP president to bring the US out of the IMF, World Bank, UN, and other failed globalist entities.

Heck, the GOP (along with many Dems) are still trying to create a North American Union with a continent-wide "Amero" currency.....even as the EU and Euro implode

Obama unfortunately is just acting like the Bush's when it comes to failed global economic ideas. He would actually get a good number ofGOP voter support if he just said "F-- the EU, World Bank, IMF"


This is what paultards actually believe.
 
2012-06-01 10:00:59 AM  
There is a distinct lack of feces, Holmes.
 
2012-06-01 10:01:32 AM  
The Euro worked just fine when it was the big boys of Europe having a common currency to make business easier (and reduce money changing related expenses). Adding in some of the Eastern European countries was also smart. They had fairly well run governments (a lot of them are very austere post communism) and were good areas for cheap manufacturing. So some company based in Germany could just use Euros at its factory in Latvia.

The number of nations involved with the euro is going to shrink as a lot of people get a boot up the ass. The only real question is if the valuable core of the euro survives or if PIGS farks it up beyond all repair.
 
2012-06-01 10:04:16 AM  

UCFRoadWarrior: This crap has been going on well before Obama

There has yet been a GOP president to bring the US out of the IMF, World Bank, UN, and other failed globalist entities.

Heck, the GOP (along with many Dems) are still trying to create a North American Union with a continent-wide "Amero" currency.....even as the EU and Euro implode

Obama unfortunately is just acting like the Bush's when it comes to failed global economic ideas. He would actually get a good number ofGOP voter support if he just said "F-- the EU, World Bank, IMF"


upload.wikimedia.org
unimpressed with your hackery
 
2012-06-01 10:04:54 AM  

SVenus: Talked to a vendor about ten days ago. Before changing fields, he got his masters degree ten years ago in international business finance, focusing on the Euro. From his workups back then, his opinion hasn't changed, and he is pretty opinionated. The Euro was always unsustainable, he posited back then and today. Asked on Greece exit, he said that the global economy will work out if Greece leaves, and maybe if Spain leaves (he mentioned one other country I forget).

But he was strangely firm on his current opinion that, if the entire Euro collapses before Fall 2013, the global economy won't be able to handle the shock. If the Euro collapses, say, in mid 2014, it won't be near as bad. I have no idea what his criteria was for judging it - he mentioned the way the current slowdown was recovering, both in the US and abroad - but he was pretty firm talking for a guy wanting to sell us stuff completely unrelated to finance.

TL;DR: If the Euro collapses within a year, bad things will happen, after a year, maybe not so bad.


Lemme guess: Portugal or Ireland?
 
2012-06-01 10:07:09 AM  

JohnAnnArbor: Three years? Try since the beginning of the euro project.


I can't claim to have followed the Euro project ever since its inception, but as I understand it was initially welcomed, because it made it easier for the peripheral states to trade with the bigger economies and get cheap loans. But they're regretting it now, because they owe a ton of money to German and French banks, and they gave up much of their sovereignty for those temporary gains.
 
2012-06-01 10:08:56 AM  

austin_millbarge: In before "Welcome to Obama's America! Amercia!".

/derp


/FTFY
 
2012-06-01 10:12:08 AM  
It probably was sustainable when it started, but once Germany and France had both found excuses to break the rules of the SGP everyone else was bound to ignore it, and then sooner or later that would precipitate a crisis. Whether they can reform things and get it all back on track is open to question. Assuming no more exogenous shocks, it seems reasonable to assume that things can be patched up by the larger countries in the short term and as the tail end of the impacts of the 80s-2007 debt bubble finally plays out and things get slowly back to normal in the global economy, and as the pressure subsides the impetus to actually reform the Euro will ease off, and in such a politically heterogenous area that will be enough to stall any changes other than trivial ones.

Of course in 5-10 years time another financial crisis will happen and who knows what will happen there - China seems a likely source of the next big financial crisis given they have been rapidly catching up in most other fields, but as with things like the environment, health and safety, etc., the regulation in China is very weak, and the amounts of money being dealt with is growing exponentially.
 
2012-06-01 10:12:10 AM  
Gosh, if the Euro zone breaks up and Germany is left with enormous amounts of debt, I wonder who the Germans will blame.
 
2012-06-01 10:12:16 AM  
shiat, meet fan.
 
2012-06-01 10:13:14 AM  

Savage Bacon: Lemme guess: Portugal or Ireland?


It would be of very little benefit to us (Ireland), we're farked due to having to pay back debts run up by bankers and developers, devaluing our currency would be of very little help in this situation.
 
2012-06-01 10:13:50 AM  
I don't wanna piss in anybody's petunia patch or anything, but, um - currency and the way banks use it now is unsustainable. All of it. Ha ha. We stuck it in the dog.
 
2012-06-01 10:13:55 AM  
That's because it's the European Union. If it were the European Corporation, they could fire those lazy Greeks.
 
2012-06-01 10:22:33 AM  

Arkanaut: JohnAnnArbor: Three years? Try since the beginning of the euro project.

I can't claim to have followed the Euro project ever since its inception, but as I understand it was initially welcomed, because it made it easier for the peripheral states to trade with the bigger economies and get cheap loans. But they're regretting it now, because they owe a ton of money to German and French banks, and they gave up much of their sovereignty for those temporary gains.


The "peripheral" states essentially used their position in the EU to borrow money in lieu of actually having sustainable economies. They've essentially been living it up with someone else's money and now the music has stopped. Many of the countries you would have expected to default (read as Eastern Europe) instead are thriving due to competant leadership and sustainable growth
 
2012-06-01 10:23:39 AM  

Snarfangel: That's because it's the European Union. If it were the European Corporation, they could fire those lazy Greeks.


Now that's entertainment.
 
2012-06-01 10:25:28 AM  
I was a bit concerned when someone thought grabbing a bunch of unrelated and diverse countries and forcing them all under one currency. I blame myself for not saying something.
 
2012-06-01 10:27:27 AM  

JohnAnnArbor: Three years? Try since the beginning of the euro project.


No sh*t. I'm no economist, but I've always been kind of befuddled by the notion that the Euro could work. How can any monetary system be sustained without a strong common political framework backing it?
 
2012-06-01 10:30:12 AM  

ferretman: This is actually good for America....the dollar is becoming stronger. That means you get more for your money.


Going to Paris in July, and I'm feeling much better about the trip with the Euro declining. Hoping it continues, or at the very least doesn't slide back up.
 
2012-06-01 10:30:25 AM  
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Signed (Country of Greece)

Pretty much how I got my first Discover card. Member since 1994
 
2012-06-01 10:30:36 AM  

austin_millbarge: In before "Welcome to Obama's America!".

/derp



Came for this, leaving satisfied.
 
2012-06-01 10:38:47 AM  

ferretman: This is actually good for America....the dollar is becoming stronger. That means you get more for your money. Of course Obama will take credit....just watch.


It's good for consumers in general (cheaper imported goods from Europe), bad for anybody who works for a company that exports things from the United States to Europe (poor economy combined with a weak currency means fewer exports which means job losses in the US). There's also negative side effects on any American company that has assets in Europe (companies like Ford and GM will be hurt beyond less exports from the US but also lower sales of Europe-made goods in Europe itself, American banks that have bad loans to European customers, etc.).

Now, a possible good side effect of this will be reduced demand for oil in Europe, which, in turn, will result in lower oil prices everywhere including the United States (oil prices collapsed during the 2008 financial meltdown and then went back up after the world economy recovered).

The net result of all of this is a net negative in the US, but not a serious one, unless the Euro totally and completely collapses (which would probably trigger another global recession).
 
2012-06-01 10:42:08 AM  
The whole of ignoring long term flaws in society and finance is ultimately to blame.
Europe as a whole seems to have taken the position that it would be rude and disloyal to the European project as a whole to point out, or even address, awkward facts. The Germans mare particularly prone to this as a culture I feel, they tend to get sunk into groupthink. As a country that should know better they should have known better. (This is why Germany never had an empire I feel; they weren't realistic enough).

I speak as Brit who's lived in various other EU countries, including Germany and Spain.
Every country, including my own, has it's delusions of course, it's just that the Euro crisis is exposing them brutally.

The sky is black with the wings of chickens coming home to roost.
 
2012-06-01 10:52:15 AM  
'Sustainable'? I freaking hate that word.

It's a weak confederation that leaves the central entity far more vulnerable to the ass-hattery of its membership.
 
2012-06-01 10:56:39 AM  

ferretman: This is actually good for America....the dollar is becoming stronger. That means you get more for your money. Of course Obama will take credit....just watch.


Europe is failing because Soshialisms.

Obama is the Grand Master Flash of Soshulizm.

A failing Europe means more investor money in American stocks and bonds.

Ergo, Obama is the savior of America, should be made Emperor, and Palin shall be court jester.
 
2012-06-01 11:02:21 AM  
Obvious tag is spot on
 
2012-06-01 11:07:48 AM  

Arkanaut: JohnAnnArbor: Three years? Try since the beginning of the euro project.

I can't claim to have followed the Euro project ever since its inception, but as I understand it was initially welcomed, because it made it easier for the peripheral states to trade with the bigger economies and get cheap loans. But they're regretting it now, because they owe a ton of money to German and French banks, and they gave up much of their sovereignty for those temporary gains.


Welcomed is one thing. Wise is another. People looked at the members of the EU and realized up front there were serious issues if they were all part of the Euro. The differences in the economies made unified fiscal policy a decidedly bad idea.
 
2012-06-01 11:09:26 AM  

ferretman: This is actually good for America....the dollar is becoming stronger. That means you get more for your money. Of course Obama will take credit....just watch.


Equally important, it keeps the yield on American debt low. We absolutely can't afford for yields to rise now, as we can't afford to pay down debt until the economy improves.
 
2012-06-01 11:11:09 AM  

Babwa Wawa: JohnAnnArbor: Three years? Try since the beginning of the euro project.

No sh*t. I'm no economist, but I've always been kind of befuddled by the notion that the Euro could work. How can any monetary system be sustained without a strong common political framework backing it?


Long term, it can't. But that was never the plan. Further political integration was always on the EU roadmap. Monetary union was to get the economic benefits before all the political union steps were taken, because everyone could see that lowering the trade barriers and moving to a common currency would break them out of the economic problems everyone was facing. By fostering much closer economic ties between the members more steps on the political side could then be taken.
 
2012-06-01 11:28:42 AM  

MadHatter500: Further political integration was always on the EU roadmap.


I said I wasn't an economist, and I'm no historian either (although I have a BA in History). That right there's some primo, class-a, no-nonsense delusional horsesh*t.

I'm not saying that you're wrong - you are quite right - they SAID they wanted tight political unity, but their actions over the last two decades contradicted what they said. You can't get good unity when you have Rome and Berlin in the same union. How in holy hell is it going to get better when you throw Latvia?

The fact is that the EU could have required more political concessions from its member states, but they didn't want it. The existing member states wanted access to the cheap labor from incoming states, and the incoming states wanted access to the EU market. It was and is purely an economic union. There was and will not be any sort of political unity between such a diverse set of member states. It's absurd on the face of it.
 
2012-06-01 11:51:19 AM  
 
2012-06-01 12:01:49 PM  

ethics-gradient: This is why Germany never had an empire I feel; they weren't realistic enough


Never had an empire?! They had three!

Perhaps you meant a successful one.
 
2012-06-01 12:06:24 PM  
Babwa Wawa: I said I wasn't an economist, and I'm no historian either (although I have a BA in History).

I'm not saying that you're wrong - you are quite right - they SAID they wanted tight political unity, but their actions over the last two decades contradicted what they said. You can't get good unity when you have Rome and Berlin in the same union... There was and will not be any sort of political unity between such a diverse set of member states. It's absurd on the face of it.


I did history too. I agree as far as that goes, but also there's been surprisingly little attempt argue against the extent of political unity, considering that I'm not aware of any European country* where there is a public demand to give up their independence to Brussels.
The Economist calls it the "democratic deficit" and, it seems to me, it highlights a certain hubris or arrogance implicit in the EU project which contributed in large part to the current Euro mess. Or maybe it's just naivety, I'm not sure.

*Many of which are of older and of proven viability compared with the relatively young EU.
 
2012-06-01 12:08:52 PM  
ethics-gradient: This is why Germany never had an empire I feel; they weren't realistic enough

Arkanaut: Never had an empire?! They had three!

Perhaps you meant a successful one.


Oooh you got me! Yes very good point, that is what I meant.
 
2012-06-01 12:10:20 PM  

ferretman: This is actually good for America....the dollar is becoming stronger. That means you get more for your money. Of course Obama will take credit....just watch.


Whether or not a strong dollar is a Good Thing is a matter of perspective. Healthy economies can and do exist around both strong and weak currencies. The problem is that adapting to either situation takes time, and what works in one situation usually doesn't work in others. So when the two sides switch, or when sides normally close together grow far apart (or the reverse), Bad Things happen. When the Canadian dollar hit parity with the US dollar, for example, it turned out badly for both sides.

There is plenty of room for that to happen with the Euro, too. There was quite a bit of chaos on both sides when the Euro started to rocket ahead of the dollar, but over time they've both started to adapt to that situation. Bring them close again, and you'll see the same problems. They'll be temporary, just like they were last time, but is this really a good time for something like that to happen?
 
2012-06-01 12:15:00 PM  

Arkanaut: Never had an empire?! They had three!

Perhaps you meant a successful one.


The HRE wasn't really unsuccessful for its entire life... (Technically no one has had a successful empire since they all failed, except maybe ours right now which is in the process of failing).
 
2012-06-01 12:45:30 PM  

ethics-gradient: I did history too. I agree as far as that goes, but also there's been surprisingly little attempt argue against the extent of political unity, considering that I'm not aware of any European country* where there is a public demand to give up their independence to Brussels.
The Economist calls it the "democratic deficit" and, it seems to me, it highlights a certain hubris or arrogance implicit in the EU project which contributed in large part to the current Euro mess. Or maybe it's just naivety, I'm not sure.

*Many of which are of older and of proven viability compared with the relatively young EU.


TOTALLY agree. Everyone wants the benefits of a common currency but does not want to give up political independence. It appears that this can work, until it doesn't.
 
2012-06-01 12:56:52 PM  
i3.kym-cdn.com
 
2012-06-01 12:58:09 PM  
The world economy is going to take a nose diver before next year.
Things will be very bad. Then it will get better.

Rinse & repeat
 
2012-06-01 12:58:51 PM  
At least the U.S can take solace in that they aren't going to be the ones causing the next global recession!
 
2012-06-01 01:30:08 PM  
Wow, you mean a forced universal standardized from of legal tender won't work?

Imagine that!

Sarcasm aside, they should just adopt open competing currencies, then watch as people quickly retreat the US dollar for more-stable commodities.
 
2012-06-01 02:26:32 PM  
I know of a way to keep the Eurozone together:

flagspot.net
 
2012-06-02 02:03:52 AM  

austin_millbarge: In before "Welcome to Obama's America!".

/derp


Well, the 50-state dollar currency union is beginning to finally collapse...
 
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