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(The Big Picture)   List of all the articles the MSM has written since 2006 predicting the housing market has reached rock bottom. In other news, the housing market has finally reached rock bottom   (ritholtz.com) divider line 37
    More: Unlikely, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, National Association of Home Builders, LexisNexis, Sam Zell, construction industry, capital expenditures, housing market, spring  
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2520 clicks; posted to Main » on 31 May 2012 at 10:23 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-05-31 10:27:15 AM
Time to buy!!
 
Skr
2012-05-31 10:31:36 AM
Rock bottom? Seem pretty inflated still to me.

/Some areas being exceptions. Which are bought out and rented and/or flipped at high rates.
 
2012-05-31 10:31:43 AM
Not at the bottom yet, banks are still holding a lot of bad assets. Will probably at least another year before we see how low low is.
 
2012-05-31 10:34:29 AM
MSM? More likely just guilty of filling space by mindlessly printing the press releases of the National Realtors Association or whatever.

Gee, no FOXNews on there -- that's as mainstream as it gets these days. I guess that is due to their relentlessly pessimistic outlook on all things.
 
2012-05-31 10:35:18 AM
It hasn't hit bottom until I am able to buy.

Your move, market.
 
2012-05-31 10:37:31 AM
Prosperity is just around the corner!
 
2012-05-31 10:38:22 AM
img.youtube.com
Still looking for rock bottom
 
2012-05-31 10:40:16 AM
I doubt those were 'all' the articles, subby. More like a sampling, as pointed out in the original. Fail.
 
2012-05-31 10:43:19 AM
Barry, just because many people have been wrong doesn't mean you're right. There will eventually be a bottom.

Did he notice his own chart shows price increases in several markets? This indicates there was a bottom between December 2011 and March 2012. The key is that he uses a cumulative percentage decrease. Kind of an interesting technique. I like it.

www.ritholtz.com

Dallas is only 6.7% off its peak, but Las Vegas is 61.5% off. Wow.

I do like the cut of this guy's jib though:

Comments
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
 
2012-05-31 10:45:17 AM

filter: I doubt those were 'all' the articles, subby. More like a sampling, as pointed out in the original. Fail.


Seriously, does FARK have the online storage to handle all of the HMRRB stories?

PS Bought in Dec. 2010, $75K appreciation on the place so far, based on a bank's assessment.
 
2012-05-31 10:45:54 AM
I've been flipping this coin and predicted it would come up tails. I was right!

/eventually
 
2012-05-31 10:46:18 AM
BTFD
 
2012-05-31 10:51:58 AM
When Time magazine tells you that buying a house is dumb and everyone should be renters from now on, that is the bottom and the signal to buy.
 
2012-05-31 10:54:16 AM

natazha: PS Bought in Dec. 2010, $75K appreciation on the place so far, based on a bank's assessment.


You sold the place and made 75k?
 
2012-05-31 10:55:40 AM
As someone who just put his 3800 sqft house up on the market, I'm not getting a kick...

Seriously, Austin isn't really "Texas", someone come and buy it!
 
2012-05-31 10:56:31 AM

natazha: filter: I doubt those were 'all' the articles, subby. More like a sampling, as pointed out in the original. Fail.

Seriously, does FARK have the online storage to handle all of the HMRRB stories?

PS Bought in Dec. 2010, $75K appreciation on the place so far, based on a bank's assessment.


I bought in early 2006 and have had about 100% appreciation. While it sounds good, we are two kids later and cannot afford to move. Then again, we don't live in the US anymore.
 
2012-05-31 10:57:50 AM

Rapmaster2000: Barry, just because many people have been wrong doesn't mean you're right. There will eventually be a bottom.

Did he notice his own chart shows price increases in several markets? This indicates there was a bottom between December 2011 and March 2012. The key is that he uses a cumulative percentage decrease. Kind of an interesting technique. I like it.


It's a neat graph.

But I'm always left wondering...why are we always comparing numbers to high point of the housing market, which pretty much everyone knows that the valuations of the market were way inflated above what they should've been in the first place. Comparing highest high to lowest low is fun from a dramatic standpoint...but highest high always seems like an unrealistic value as to "what the price should be, why can't the prices go back up to those levels!" since except for some outliers, it will take a looooong time to get back to those prices due to the natural course of inflation.

Is it simply because we don't know what the "true realistic valuation" should be? It's obviously somewhere in the middle of "extreme bubble prices caused by speculators buying up houses they have no plans of living in" and "housing that the banks refuse to sell because they'll lose their shirts".
 
2012-05-31 10:58:29 AM

Rapmaster2000: Barry, just because many people have been wrong doesn't mean you're right. There will eventually be a bottom.

Did he notice his own chart shows price increases in several markets? This indicates there was a bottom between December 2011 and March 2012. The key is that he uses a cumulative percentage decrease. Kind of an interesting technique. I like it.

[www.ritholtz.com image 640x386]

Dallas is only 6.7% off its peak, but Las Vegas is 61.5% off. Wow.


On the plus side, that shows PDX to be holding steady through Q1, while I know for a fact that there is another round of property dumps coming in the next month (some right where I want to live). We should see another local decline!

1,200sq-ft 2br house w/garage, here I come!
 
2012-05-31 11:00:43 AM
I know my house supposedly is finally showing an increase after the entire 5 years I've owned it doing nothing but sliding downward. All I want is to refi the sumbiatch for a lower payment, but I've never NOT been underwater. Stupidest move I've ever made to buy a house.
 
2012-05-31 11:00:48 AM

BraFish: As someone who just put his 3800 sqft house up on the market, I'm not getting a kick...

Seriously, Austin isn't really "Texas", someone come and buy it!


I moved from 1400 to 2400 sq. ft. and suddenly it seems the quantity of stuff I own shot way up. If I buy a 3800 sq. ft. house, my calculations are showing a 58% increase in junk I don't need.

How the hell does that happen? I moved in with one 16ft. truck. Now I think I'd need a semi to get out of here.
 
2012-05-31 11:04:26 AM
Many casual observers of Housing (along with a few pros) fail to understand the difference between monthly seasonality and actual improvement.

It's easy to get confused by monthly seasonality, because that only happens on our annual weekend. And twice on weekly solstices.

But yeah, these guys sound like geniuses.
 
2012-05-31 11:06:51 AM

snowshovel: Rapmaster2000: Barry, just because many people have been wrong doesn't mean you're right. There will eventually be a bottom.

Did he notice his own chart shows price increases in several markets? This indicates there was a bottom between December 2011 and March 2012. The key is that he uses a cumulative percentage decrease. Kind of an interesting technique. I like it.


It's a neat graph.

But I'm always left wondering...why are we always comparing numbers to high point of the housing market, which pretty much everyone knows that the valuations of the market were way inflated above what they should've been in the first place. Comparing highest high to lowest low is fun from a dramatic standpoint...but highest high always seems like an unrealistic value as to "what the price should be, why can't the prices go back up to those levels!" since except for some outliers, it will take a looooong time to get back to those prices due to the natural course of inflation.

Is it simply because we don't know what the "true realistic valuation" should be? It's obviously somewhere in the middle of "extreme bubble prices caused by speculators buying up houses they have no plans of living in" and "housing that the banks refuse to sell because they'll lose their shirts".


Ideally, we would try and use a best fit graph.

verybestcdrates.com

But there are several factors to determine how to make the graph fit. Mortgage interest deduction (this pushes up home values - the more expensive the home is then the larger a tax shelter it is), access to credit, population growth, etc.
 
2012-05-31 11:14:51 AM
It's all relative based on geographic areas. YMMV.

Spend a month or two looking at the market in your tri-city area and you get a good idea of what places are going for. You don't need to be a realtor (or listen to a realtor) for what is a good buy, you will intrinsically know as you visit homes, determine what you want/need, and what you are willing to afford.
 
2012-05-31 11:16:42 AM

Rapmaster2000: BraFish: As someone who just put his 3800 sqft house up on the market, I'm not getting a kick...

Seriously, Austin isn't really "Texas", someone come and buy it!

I moved from 1400 to 2400 sq. ft. and suddenly it seems the quantity of stuff I own shot way up. If I buy a 3800 sq. ft. house, my calculations are showing a 58% increase in junk I don't need.

How the hell does that happen? I moved in with one 16ft. truck. Now I think I'd need a semi to get out of here.


Cruft naturally accumulates with time. Smaller living space requires purging every once in a while, unless one likes living like a Depression survivor with crap packed floor-to-ceiling...

I've still got shiat I don't need, because it takes more effort to sort through it and throw stuff out than to simply let it occupy space in an under-utilized room. Seriously, I don't even have that brand of car anymore, so why do I need spare parts?!
 
2012-05-31 11:22:30 AM

natazha: based on a bank's assessment.


Ask the bank if they want to buy it from you.
 
2012-05-31 11:26:00 AM
How many of the pieces linked there were lazy articles people wrote almost verbatim from a National Association of Realtors press release?
 
2012-05-31 11:28:21 AM
Your house is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it. All you owners who claim you house is worth this, or worth that are wrong. Case and point, zillow claims my house is worth about 40% more than what the same exact house just sold for last year.
 
2012-05-31 11:35:13 AM

dragasoni: Your house is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it. All you owners who claim you house is worth this, or worth that are wrong. Case and point, zillow claims my house is worth about 40% more than what the same exact house just sold for last year.


Zillow's numbers are a fairly meaningless estimate based on very little information. They just take your house's assessed value and multiply it by a constant (local average sale price divided by local average assessment value).

If you have a bunch of foreclosures or short sells in your neighborhood, your Zillow estimate will tank for no reason. If your house is reassessed, your Zillow estimate will jump for no reason.
 
2012-05-31 12:06:16 PM

dragasoni: Your house is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it. All you owners who claim you house is worth this, or worth that are wrong. Case and point, zillow claims my house is worth about 40% more than what the same exact house just sold for last year.


What if we aren't using Zillow, but actual prices of comparable homes sold recently? My neighborhood has gone up about $20 per square foot the last year and a half. Which is nice. Though there never was a huge decline here either, as the housing market never got out of control in the first place.
 
2012-05-31 12:17:49 PM
snowshovel: But I'm always left wondering...why are we always comparing numbers to high point of the housing market, which pretty much everyone knows that the valuations of the market were way inflated above what they should've been in the first place. Comparing highest high to lowest low is fun from a dramatic standpoint...but highest high always seems like an unrealistic value as to "what the price should be, why can't the prices go back up to those levels!" since except for some outliers, it will take a looooong time to get back to those prices due to the natural course of inflation.


If you want to get a good idea of the overall trend in house prices, check out the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.. The report is the first link on the page, under "Latest Press Release." It's a PDF.
 
2012-05-31 12:22:17 PM

dragasoni: Your house is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it. All you owners who claim you house is worth this, or worth that are wrong. Case and point, zillow claims my house is worth about 40% more than what the same exact house just sold for last year.


that could be said of most any product or service. it's usually phrased that way - intrinsic value - for items that may be an affair of the heart like art work, an antique or collectible. housing prices are dictated by similar sales in the neighborhood regardless of the final accuracy. of course you would want to adjust accordingly if you're looking to sell your home.
 
2012-05-31 12:35:14 PM
images1.wikia.nocookie.net
 
2012-05-31 01:07:29 PM
I'm looking to buy on Northern Virginia, so I'm getting a real kick...

We rent for the moment. We *could* buy a house at this point, but it wouldn't really save us money. The payment on a decent place is more than we are paying in rent. And rent currently includes access to a gym, a swimming pool, a location that is 2 traffic lights from the highway, I don't pay property tax, and if something breaks I call a repairman. Plus I don't have to mow the lawn.

Houses really need to drop in price to turn the idea of owning a home in this area from being brainless to a no-brainer.
 
2012-05-31 01:45:00 PM
In contrast, houses in Binghamton are cheap enough that renting is almost always a bad deal. You rent half a house for $600-700/mo, rent a whole house for $1000-1200/mo, and nice houses go for about $120K. We pay $1200/mo for a 15-year mortgage, that's total mortgage, taxes and insurance. And that's for one of the best locations in town.
 
2012-05-31 02:27:44 PM

Evil Twin Skippy: I'm looking to buy on Northern Virginia, so I'm getting a real kick...

We rent for the moment. We *could* buy a house at this point, but it wouldn't really save us money. The payment on a decent place is more than we are paying in rent. And rent currently includes access to a gym, a swimming pool, a location that is 2 traffic lights from the highway, I don't pay property tax, and if something breaks I call a repairman. Plus I don't have to mow the lawn.

Houses really need to drop in price to turn the idea of owning a home in this area from being brainless to a no-brainer.


I'm in the same boat. I am renting a sweet 1500 sq ft house for $800 a month right now. A comparable house would cost me about $150K, so I'm in no hurry to move. Plus my landlords are awesome. They have no problem with me having a dog, so I recently got a boxer puppy. They came out the weekend after I got her to meet her and fence in the backyard for me. It really is a nice place and a sweet deal financially. That being said, over 10 years, my payments will total $96K. That's a lot of money...

My end goal is to have my house completely paid off when I retire (about 35 years away), so I'll be looking to buy within the next three years. I don't want to throw that $96K out the window. I can't have kids, so I don't need a big place. I'm gonna buy a small house on a decent lot and live in it forever, so I figure I'd better get it done sooner than later. The good thing is that since my rent is so cheap, I'm saving up a lot of money for the down payment.
 
2012-05-31 05:07:02 PM

Evil Twin Skippy: We rent for the moment. We *could* buy a house at this point, but it wouldn't really save us money. The payment on a decent place is more than we are paying in rent. And rent currently includes access to a gym, a swimming pool, a location that is 2 traffic lights from the highway, I don't pay property tax, and if something breaks I call a repairman. Plus I don't have to mow the lawn.


Not having to perform maintenance tasks as a renter is certainly a plus, but owning the property can actually be cheaper than renting in the long run. Your payments might be more, but you're gaining valuable equity in return. Let's say your rent is $1,000/month but a house payment would be $1,500. Over 10 years you spend $120,000 in rent that is just gone. You pay $180,000 over 10 years to your lender for a home, you have probably built up around $66,000 in equity meaning you have net benefit vs renting. Of course if your house value has gone up in 10 years, you have that much more equity.

In addition, you get a lot of ways to save money as a homeowner in the form of tax breaks on your interest and property tax payments. This article has some basic info, I'm sure there's a lot more ways home owners save money: Link

I'm not sure I would wait 3 years to buy. Prices and more importantly interest rates will likely be a little higher. Of course if the election swings the wrong way, we might all be farked anyway and you'll be glad you rent so you can more easily move to a new job / country.
 
2012-06-01 08:00:39 AM
Next, a list of all the Fark posts from before 2009 claiming that Bush was going to fix the Clinton recession, followed by all the Fark posts since 2009 claiming that Obama was going to fix the Bush recession.
 
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