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(Marketwatch)   While everyone dutifully waits for Greece charge its way out of the Euro, Spain is sleepwalking back to its own currency   (marketwatch.com) divider line 27
    More: Unlikely, Greece  
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1473 clicks; posted to Business » on 30 May 2012 at 1:53 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



27 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2012-05-30 02:35:10 PM  
Can't Prince Harry just marry the Spanish Infanta?

www.bbc.co.uk
 
2012-05-30 02:48:50 PM  
Oh, the UK Euro haters so much hope the Euro fails.

I hope they can't talk it into failing.
 
2012-05-30 03:13:33 PM  
Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain currently use the Euro.

Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain are probably leaving. Possibly Belgium and Estonia, too. Leaving Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands.
 
2012-05-30 03:16:48 PM  
I don't want the Euro to fail, I just want it to slide down compared to the dollar a little more so that I can travel there with an effective discount.

It's annoying, though, that it won't help us, since Europe will be even less able to buy American exports, meaning that we'll be even more broke. Maybe Spain will come to the rescue with their awesome... spanishness.
 
2012-05-30 03:24:02 PM  
I just want to watch the world burn

/and buy a Greek island for a considerable discount
 
2012-05-30 03:56:51 PM  

rolladuck: I don't want the Euro to fail, I just want it to slide down compared to the dollar a little more so that I can travel there with an effective discount.

It's annoying, though, that it won't help us, since Europe will be even less able to buy American exports, meaning that we'll be even more broke. Maybe Spain will come to the rescue with their awesome... spanishness.


Europe buys an awfully small amount of our total exports. Less than 2%. Still, not good and I also want our Spanish brothers to come to our rescue. Ole!
 
2012-05-30 04:02:39 PM  
The UK is looking awfully smart for sticking with the Pound.
 
2012-05-30 04:17:18 PM  

Trolljegeren: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain currently use the Euro.

Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain are probably leaving. Possibly Belgium and Estonia, too. Leaving Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands.


Great, now I can't get that song out of my head.

i1.ytimg.com

/hotlink
 
2012-05-30 04:24:56 PM  
farking monetary union without fiscal union, how does that work?

/Very badly, it turns out
 
2012-05-30 04:50:25 PM  

dr.zaeus: Trolljegeren: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain currently use the Euro.

Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain are probably leaving. Possibly Belgium and Estonia, too. Leaving Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands.

Great, now I can't get that song out of my head.

[i1.ytimg.com image 480x360]

/hotlink


Youtube

/For anybody wondering . . . .
 
2012-05-30 04:53:57 PM  

spawn73: Oh, the UK Euro haters so much hope the Euro fails.


The UK folks don't give a shiat, they're not the ones who got farked over by the Euro.
 
2012-05-30 05:19:53 PM  

MrEricSir: spawn73: Oh, the UK Euro haters so much hope the Euro fails.

The UK folks don't give a shiat, they're not the ones who got farked over by the Euro.


The UK got farked over by not joining the Euro (I gather we can agree that the UK would have been at a position of Stenght, and thus have gained from being in the Euro).

As for not giving a shiat. Bullshiat, the UK is still butthurt about the Pound failing once, and they can't deal with the Euro being successfull, which is why they hope it fails. We'll see if it does, I hope not. But then again, I don't have a massive chip on my shoulder.
 
2012-05-30 05:42:48 PM  

spawn73: As for not giving a shiat. Bullshiat, the UK is still butthurt about the Pound failing once, and they can't deal with the Euro being successfull, which is why they hope it fails. We'll see if it does, I hope not. But then again, I don't have a massive chip on my shoulder.


The Economist and (to a lesser extent) the FT have both been cheering on the Euro. Hell, The Economist is arguing lately that the EU should double-down on the Euro and do basically anything to prevent Greece from walking away. So no, unless you're talking about fringe groups the UK seems fine with having a functional Euro.
 
2012-05-30 05:58:10 PM  

MrEricSir: spawn73: As for not giving a shiat. Bullshiat, the UK is still butthurt about the Pound failing once, and they can't deal with the Euro being successfull, which is why they hope it fails. We'll see if it does, I hope not. But then again, I don't have a massive chip on my shoulder.

The Economist and (to a lesser extent) the FT have both been cheering on the Euro. Hell, The Economist is arguing lately that the EU should double-down on the Euro and do basically anything to prevent Greece from walking away. So no, unless you're talking about fringe groups the UK seems fine with having a functional Euro.


Maybe I'm just talking fringe, as I am just seeing what gets greenlit here rather than the whole picture comming from the UK press.
 
2012-05-30 06:06:17 PM  

Trolljegeren: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain currently use the Euro.

Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain are probably leaving. Possibly Belgium and Estonia, too. Leaving Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands.


why would Estonia, Slovakia and Slovenia leave? debt to gdp is still under 40% for Slovakia and Slovenia; Estonia has the best public finances in the eurozone.
 
2012-05-30 06:11:23 PM  
I hoped the discussion would go towards the legitimacy of the argument about whether Spain would walk away first, and not so much about who is cheering for the Eurozone collapse.

The concept of the Euro has some innate vulnerabilities, and this is a chance for them to either determine a robust solution, or allow themselves to be consumed by dont-give-a-damn-itis while being paralyzed by political fear.

I think the latter is likely, but if they go, then America is left holding the bag and trying to support the rest of the world. We don't have a prayer of success. Depending on our leadership's, we will either try and fail spectacularly, or just go recluse and tell everyone to go somewhere else with their problems. I don't relish either eventuality. The 21st century is farked.
 
2012-05-30 06:12:41 PM  

m1ke: The UK is looking awfully smart for sticking with the Pound.


perhaps, but since Brits have been screaming gloom and doom regarding the euro for years, they look really stupid for not diversifying their exports beyond the eurozone.

Britain's trade with Ireland is greater than its combined trade with brazil, russia, india, and china.

Link
 
2012-05-30 06:37:05 PM  

rolladuck: I hoped the discussion would go towards the legitimacy of the argument about whether Spain would walk away first, and not so much about who is cheering for the Eurozone collapse.

The concept of the Euro has some innate vulnerabilities, and this is a chance for them to either determine a robust solution, or allow themselves to be consumed by dont-give-a-damn-itis while being paralyzed by political fear.

I think the latter is likely, but if they go, then America is left holding the bag and trying to support the rest of the world. We don't have a prayer of success. Depending on our leadership's, we will either try and fail spectacularly, or just go recluse and tell everyone to go somewhere else with their problems. I don't relish either eventuality. The 21st century is farked.


the latter has been the status quo since this crap started 2 years ago. as a result many companies here have been very reluctant to invest.

without fiscal transfers and/or eurobonds the crisis will not stop. Germany (along with Austria and Finland) have refused to even consider these, which means that there will be one investor panic after another until the whole thing collapses.

Germany only considers the cost of the solutions, not the cost of the eurozone failure.
 
2012-05-30 06:57:00 PM  

dumbobruni: Germany only considers the cost of the solutions, not the cost of the eurozone failure.


Germany would accept eurozone failure only as a last resort. A final solution, if you will.
 
2012-05-30 07:04:41 PM  

dumbobruni: without fiscal transfers and/or eurobonds the crisis will not stop. Germany (along with Austria and Finland) have refused to even consider these, which means that there will be one investor panic after another until the whole thing collapses.


The eurozone needs to wake up to the fact that Germans no longer feel sufficiently guilty about the war to continue bailing out more profligate countries that have failed to modernize their economies. Eurobonds -- which boil down to other countries getting to borrow money on the strength of German fiscal discipline -- are just the latest example.
 
2012-05-30 07:30:00 PM  

rolladuck: ... then America is left holding the bag and trying to support the rest of the world. We don't have a prayer of success. Depending on our leadership's, we will either try and fail spectacularly, or just go recluse and tell everyone to go somewhere else with their problems. I don't relish either eventuality. The 21st century is farked.


Not if Romney gets elected. Because cutting taxes even more for the wealthy, increasing tax breaks for offshoring American jobs, increasing taxes on the poor and massively increasing defense spending will fix it all.
 
2012-05-30 07:31:00 PM  

czetie: dumbobruni: without fiscal transfers and/or eurobonds the crisis will not stop. Germany (along with Austria and Finland) have refused to even consider these, which means that there will be one investor panic after another until the whole thing collapses.

The eurozone needs to wake up to the fact that Germans no longer feel sufficiently guilty about the war to continue bailing out more profligate countries that have failed to modernize their economies. Eurobonds -- which boil down to other countries getting to borrow money on the strength of German fiscal discipline -- are just the latest example.


Germany's debt to GDP ratio is higher than Spain, and has a worse record of compliance with the fiscal complaince than Spain or Ireland.

fiscal discipline my ass.
 
2012-05-30 11:09:19 PM  
Spain has bigger horizons. The Spanish economy looks partly to Europe. But it looks just as much to the booming Spanish-speaking economies of Latin America (and indeed the huge Hispanic market in the U.S.).

Why is that? Because they speak the same language? That's a pretty flimsy argument.

and Spain will only recover once it gets the peseta back.

Recover ... to what? A country where all there really is is tourism and the country shuts down between 2 and 5 for a nap?

Just came back from a trip to there, I really prefered Granada over Madrid. Small condensed city where everything is walkable. Oh and the Alhambra.
 
2012-05-31 12:44:32 AM  
United States, Canada, Mexico, Panama, Haiti, Jamaica, Peru...

/Damn you...
 
2012-05-31 01:26:31 AM  
I guess it would be a good example about why having shared currency without shared fiscal policy is a bad idea... but it seems like an awfully expensive way to learn that particular lesson.
 
2012-05-31 01:52:58 AM  

lelio: Spain has bigger horizons. The Spanish economy looks partly to Europe. But it looks just as much to the booming Spanish-speaking economies of Latin America (and indeed the huge Hispanic market in the U.S.).

Why is that? Because they speak the same language? That's a pretty flimsy argument.

and Spain will only recover once it gets the peseta back.

Recover ... to what? A country where all there really is is tourism and the country shuts down between 2 and 5 for a nap?

Just came back from a trip to there, I really prefered Granada over Madrid. Small condensed city where everything is walkable. Oh and the Alhambra.


Spain's largest trade partners, according to the CIA World Factbook:

Exports: France 18.7%, Germany 10.7%, Portugal 9.1%, Italy 9%, UK 6.3% (2010)

Imports: Germany 12.6%, France 11.5%, Italy 7.3%, China 6.8%, Netherlands 5.6%, UK 4.9% (2010)

Yeah, that whole Spain cozying up with Latin America thing has a long way to go if not even Brazil cracks the top 5.
 
2012-05-31 08:20:24 AM  
Spain is not going to be leaving the Euro without a complete collapse of the currency. Greece might, and I have a few theories as to how it may happen, but it's possible. Things are real bad in Spain right now, and I know a lot of people that are worried about their money in Bankia because its still there from the Caja Madrid days, but leaving the currency union is just unthinkable to everyone at this point.

I would just once like to see a German actually admit that they skirted the rules while we (Spain) did not. And along with that they are now benefitting from a weakened currency while we are being punished for an artificially strong currency. There is growing resentment here against Germany because they got away with skirting the rules and now accuse the Spanish of being lazy and refusing to help even though they benefitted. The boom here was hugely financed by British and Germans as well. (Private Spanish debt, especially among immigrants is also heavily to blame)
 
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