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(Politico)   So, it hasn't been the best three weeks for Obama   (politico.com) divider line 116
    More: Fail, obama, Northeast Corridor, Vice President Joe Biden, Blackstone Group, public comment, Ed Rendell, Mitt Romney, Bain Capital  
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5041 clicks; posted to Politics » on 25 May 2012 at 1:02 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-05-25 05:15:56 PM

InmanRoshi: Frankly, I'm not seeing it. Romney is enjoying his post nomination wrap up bounce right now and he's still trailing in freaking Virginia by 4 points. Let's be clear on the math of this. Romney has to flip 100 electoral votes from 2008's election to get to 270, and right now with just 6 months to go before the election it looks like the only thing he's securely flipped is Indiana ... maybe/probably Missouri, but it's not in the bag yet. He basically has to run the table on every single swing state right now.


Missouri went for McCain in 2008 - he has to keep Missouri without losing anything else. And I'm pretty sure you could go ahead and count either NC or NV as a flip, although that's just gut, I haven't seen any polls.
 
2012-05-25 05:23:12 PM

InmanRoshi: I alone am best: mrshowrules: theinsultabot9000: not to come across as concerned or whatever, but ignoring the levels of derp this guy went through to make the gay marriage thing sound like some kind of impediment, he actually does have a point about how the obama team seems to be, if not off message, then not really getting it across that well. I feel like if Obama and his crew were at the top of their game they could be getting safety room in the polls, instead Romney is slowly but steadily closing the gap.

The campaign went from OBL, to saving GM, to gay marriage, Romney beating up a gay kid to firing your Uncle Frank at the steel factory and stealing his pension. If you think Obama campaign is not on message, you haven't been paying attention.

They have been kicking ass. Romney has been consistently in response mode for 2 months now and not landing a single punch. I don't know how well it is working but the Obama campaign is definitely controlling the new cycle. I would like a citation showing that Romney is closing the gap because what I have seen so far is a slightly widening gap between Romney and Obama especially in battle-ground states.

Obama is an incumbent who is ahead in the polls by 1.6 points against the presumptive GOP nominee. In February Romney was 5 points behind.

It's almost like Romney got an extremely predictable bump from wrapping up his party's nomination or something.



Over the course of three months closing the gap by 3.4%? Also he didn't get the nomination and wont until August because you know that's how things work.
 
2012-05-25 05:33:57 PM

phyrkrakr: InmanRoshi: Frankly, I'm not seeing it. Romney is enjoying his post nomination wrap up bounce right now and he's still trailing in freaking Virginia by 4 points. Let's be clear on the math of this. Romney has to flip 100 electoral votes from 2008's election to get to 270, and right now with just 6 months to go before the election it looks like the only thing he's securely flipped is Indiana ... maybe/probably Missouri, but it's not in the bag yet. He basically has to run the table on every single swing state right now.

Missouri went for McCain in 2008 - he has to keep Missouri without losing anything else. And I'm pretty sure you could go ahead and count either NC or NV as a flip, although that's just gut, I haven't seen any polls.




Actually, Obama has been surging in the polls in NV since Mittens starting wrapping up the nomination.

Mitten's anti-hispanic, anti-union, "let Wall Street do whatever they way, and let everyone else go bankrupt with the consequences" neo-capitalism platform doesn't play well in a state with a large hispanic population, with some really powerful unions and with a city that suffered more during the economic downturn than any other city in the country. Plus, the state GOP in Nevada is run by a bunch of crazed teaparty nutjobs, who couldn't deliver pizza much less an election. Nevada has a mormon population , but it's negligible... only about 10% or so. Small fries compared to the hispanic population of about 27%.
 
2012-05-25 05:35:42 PM

I alone am best: InmanRoshi: I alone am best: mrshowrules: theinsultabot9000: not to come across as concerned or whatever, but ignoring the levels of derp this guy went through to make the gay marriage thing sound like some kind of impediment, he actually does have a point about how the obama team seems to be, if not off message, then not really getting it across that well. I feel like if Obama and his crew were at the top of their game they could be getting safety room in the polls, instead Romney is slowly but steadily closing the gap.

The campaign went from OBL, to saving GM, to gay marriage, Romney beating up a gay kid to firing your Uncle Frank at the steel factory and stealing his pension. If you think Obama campaign is not on message, you haven't been paying attention.

They have been kicking ass. Romney has been consistently in response mode for 2 months now and not landing a single punch. I don't know how well it is working but the Obama campaign is definitely controlling the new cycle. I would like a citation showing that Romney is closing the gap because what I have seen so far is a slightly widening gap between Romney and Obama especially in battle-ground states.

Obama is an incumbent who is ahead in the polls by 1.6 points against the presumptive GOP nominee. In February Romney was 5 points behind.

It's almost like Romney got an extremely predictable bump from wrapping up his party's nomination or something.


Over the course of three months closing the gap by 3.4%? Also he didn't get the nomination and wont until August because you know that's how things work.


Yep. We saw the same exact bump this time of year for Kerry in 2004.
 
2012-05-25 05:37:44 PM
mrshowrules:They have been kicking ass. Romney has been consistently in response mode for 2 months now and not landing a single punch. I don't know how well it is working but the Obama campaign is definitely controlling the new cycle. I would like a citation showing that Romney is closing the gap because what I have seen so far is a slightly widening gap between Romney and Obama especially in battle-ground states.

Obama = Apollo Creed
Romney = Spider Rico
 
2012-05-25 05:38:10 PM

phyrkrakr: InmanRoshi: Frankly, I'm not seeing it. Romney is enjoying his post nomination wrap up bounce right now and he's still trailing in freaking Virginia by 4 points. Let's be clear on the math of this. Romney has to flip 100 electoral votes from 2008's election to get to 270, and right now with just 6 months to go before the election it looks like the only thing he's securely flipped is Indiana ... maybe/probably Missouri, but it's not in the bag yet. He basically has to run the table on every single swing state right now.

Missouri went for McCain in 2008 - he has to keep Missouri without losing anything else. And I'm pretty sure you could go ahead and count either NC or NV as a flip, although that's just gut, I haven't seen any polls.


Romney would need both Ohio and Florida, in addition to quite a few other states. Obama only has to hold onto a few.

Here's a reliable site - and it's run by a conservative:

Link

He has Obama 303, Romney 235 (Romney picking up Indiana, North Carolina & Florida).
 
2012-05-25 05:45:23 PM
FWIW, I would be very surprised if Obama wins North Carolina again, but just the fact that we're almost in June and it's still a statistical toss up is not a good sign for Romney. For a man who needs to flip 100 EVs, he should have a state like North Carolina in the bag by now and focusing on flipping light blue states like Pennsylvania, Nevada or a Michigan. Rather than playing offense, he's still having to play defense on his own turf. It's getting a little late in the game.
 
2012-05-25 06:55:28 PM

gtomako: I reiterate: The FARK store needs to add this. FARK's libs/dems/socialists/commies/marixists/progressives are gonna be lighting lots of these between now and Nov 6.


[i.imgur.com image 350x466]


But I thought he was Muslim
 
2012-05-25 07:31:43 PM

Rwa2play: keylock71: So the conservative mantra for this election season is "I deny reality and substitute it with my fantasies"?

I thought it's been their mantra ever since W became President.


Supply-side economics? The Taliban is the moral equivalent of our founding fathers? Freedom fighters? Iran-Contra? You have to go back about 30 years to find the point at which the Republican party violently split from reality.
 
2012-05-25 07:43:17 PM

MFL: mrshowrules

You're taking this too literal and missing the point because of it.

We could spend all day pulling out individual polls but the point was that the media and the Obama campaign have been throwing everything including the kitchen sink out there to somehow get some excitement back that they had last time around and each and every time it falls flat.

The press in conjunction with the obama administration hype a story to create a theme that will help the president politically. They might even come out with a spiked poll or two to attempt to change public opinion. But once the cycle ends and the theme that he now finally has regained that "2008 magic" subsides.....the actual numbers come out a few weeks later and they have either barely moved or he has lost ground.

the story and changes but the theme stays the same...

Women, minorities, gays, anti captialists.....all pillars of the DNC....all voting blocks the president needs.....all themes and stories the media will cherry pick to cover in a sympathetic light all the way to election day.

I'm still waiting theme about the homelessness.....wait...we don't have a republican president....nevermind.


Maybe it is just the fact that it is such a no brainer this time around people are having a hard time becoming motivated?
 
2012-05-25 09:07:09 PM
images.politico.comimages.politico.com

CONCERNED
 
2012-05-25 10:36:04 PM

InmanRoshi: For a man who needs to flip 100 EVs, he should have a state like North Carolina in the bag by now and focusing on flipping light blue states like Pennsylvania, Nevada or a Michigan. Rather than playing offense, he's still having to play defense on his own turf. It's getting a little late in the game.


This is exactly what the press doesn't want to focus on. They'll shout about national poll numbers (which mean dick) and not even mention the fact we're nearly in June and Romney has hardly even begun to alter the Electoral Vote landscape. There's been movement in a few areas, but no broadbased support and certainly no groundswell that has the Obama campaign needing to react.

For two weeks straight Romney's campaign has been completely outclassed. Their one 'coup' was Booker running his mouth, to which most of the nation responded "who?"

Maybe shiatty candidates just generate shiatty campaigns, but Romney's is a farking godawful mess and a complete joke for someone who's been running for 6 years. Christ, just look at the effort and cash they had to put into beating the freakshow candidates in the Primary. There's no switch to flip that is suddenly going to make that campaign competent and capable of beating Obama's machine.
 
2012-05-25 11:54:04 PM

cameroncrazy1984: That book is apparently so bad, the only person who was willing to be used for the cover blurb was Dinesh D'Souza


A writer so stupid, he wrote a hagiography of the only US President to commit treason, Ronald Reagan.
 
2012-05-27 02:21:35 AM
At first I thought this was a satire of some sort...I thought wrong.
 
2012-05-27 03:12:32 PM

vernonFL: So, it hasn't been the best three weeks for Obama

He can't kill bin Laden, make sure people can afford healthcare, and be the first President to support civil rights for gay Americansevery week.


Republicans are trying to make an issue of this to ensure future pressure on dissenting Democrats, similar to what was seen with Cory Booker. Having watched the destruction of the Republican party at the hands of ideological purists, party-line legislative cohesion, and top-down crushing of dissent, these talking heads want nothing more than to facilitate the same within the Democratic party.

Democrats, for their part, have recently shown an eagerness to follow the GOP's lead.
 
2012-05-28 10:54:30 AM

Jjaro: I got it from the chart on the page I linked and you referenced. That Fox News poll is over 10 days old, half the time period we are talking about. And polls are going to be lagging indicators anyway.


But we can still be totally sure things have been bad... for Obama. Right?
 
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