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(MSNBC)   Latest polls show Obama leading in three states that are must-win for Romney, including double digit leads among women in each state. Romney campaign immediately files for injunction against mathematics, women's right to vote   (firstread.msnbc.msn.com) divider line 151
    More: Obvious, Mitt Romney, obama, NBC News, battleground state, Rob Portman, injunctions  
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1962 clicks; posted to Politics » on 24 May 2012 at 11:11 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-05-24 12:27:51 PM  

Epoch_Zero: Calling it right now: Florida (where else?) will introduce a state law that requires women to produce a strand of their prenatal umbilical chord or else they are ineligible to vote.


I'm willing to take that bet.

... It'll be Arizona before Florida.
 
2012-05-24 12:28:36 PM  

hillbillypharmacist: And the use of irrational numbers miscegenation.


Imaginary numbers are numbers you have to have faith in.
 
2012-05-24 12:29:01 PM  
As a liberal, I'm not impressed with what polls say 6 months ahead of the election.
 
2012-05-24 12:34:45 PM  

God's Hubris: As a liberal, I'm not impressed with what polls say 6 months ahead of the election.


What about the polls that are 5 months away? Like this one for instance?
 
2012-05-24 12:46:13 PM  

Cletus C.: Huh? What?


In other words, I can't tell if you're a troll or not yet. Need more data. That and your username is similar enough to his to warrant confusion.
 
2012-05-24 12:50:03 PM  

bhcompy: cameroncrazy1984: bhcompy: cameroncrazy1984: No, the Republican party "investigated" Enron.

People went to jail. For a long time. Don't give me that partisan bullshiat.

I guess that other stuff doesn't count, eh?

Or was it the Democrats who didn't decide to search for bin Laden?

You just moved the goalposts from Wall Street to across the Atlantic


No, I didn't. You claimed that both sides were equally bad. They're clearly not.

Oh, and if you want to keep it on wall street: the Volcker rule and the Buffet rule.

Or do you think that's supported by Republicans too?
 
2012-05-24 01:00:37 PM  

cameroncrazy1984: bhcompy: cameroncrazy1984: bhcompy: cameroncrazy1984: No, the Republican party "investigated" Enron.

People went to jail. For a long time. Don't give me that partisan bullshiat.

I guess that other stuff doesn't count, eh?

Or was it the Democrats who didn't decide to search for bin Laden?

You just moved the goalposts from Wall Street to across the Atlantic

No, I didn't. You claimed that both sides were equally bad. They're clearly not.

Oh, and if you want to keep it on wall street: the Volcker rule and the Buffet rule.

Or do you think that's supported by Republicans too?


The Volcker rule wouldn't have been necessary if Clinton and a bi-partisan congress didn't sign the Glass-Steagall repeal
 
2012-05-24 01:02:07 PM  
FTFA:
But in each of these states, Obama's share of the vote is below the 50 percent threshold usually considered safe haven for an incumbent president, and Romney has narrowed the margin in these three battlegrounds since earlier this year.
 
2012-05-24 01:03:48 PM  

bhcompy: cameroncrazy1984: bhcompy: cameroncrazy1984: bhcompy: cameroncrazy1984: No, the Republican party "investigated" Enron.

People went to jail. For a long time. Don't give me that partisan bullshiat.

I guess that other stuff doesn't count, eh?

Or was it the Democrats who didn't decide to search for bin Laden?

You just moved the goalposts from Wall Street to across the Atlantic

No, I didn't. You claimed that both sides were equally bad. They're clearly not.

Oh, and if you want to keep it on wall street: the Volcker rule and the Buffet rule.

Or do you think that's supported by Republicans too?

The Volcker rule wouldn't have been necessary if Clinton and a bi-partisan congress didn't sign the Glass-Steagall repeal


Oh okay. So both sides were bad ten years ago, which is more important than present day positions. For some reason.
 
2012-05-24 01:04:27 PM  

bhcompy: The Volcker rule wouldn't have been necessary if Clinton and a bi-partisan congress didn't sign the Glass-Steagall repeal


Speaking of moving the goal posts ...
 
2012-05-24 01:06:09 PM  
electoral-vote.com

Strong Dem (253)
Weak Dem (32)
Barely Dem (73)
Exactly tied (0)
Barely GOP (13)
Weak GOP (42)
Strong GOP (125)

Link
 
2012-05-24 01:09:51 PM  

cameroncrazy1984: bhcompy: cameroncrazy1984: bhcompy: TV's Vinnie: It's now a bizarre death cult with Wall Street Weasels and quasi-fascists at the top

To be fair, the Democratic Party is the same way

Is this the same Democratic party whose President's administration is currently investigating JP Morgan?

Yep, both sides are equally bad.

The Republican party investigated Enron. That doesn't make a bit difference.

No, the Republican party "investigated" Enron.


The Republican party also "searched for" bin Laden

The Republican party also "started a" war in Iraq


No, they actually did start that war in Iraq.
 
2012-05-24 01:46:30 PM  
I will boldly make 2 predictions:
Romney will win.
It won't even be close.
I believe that most voters have already made up their minds to toss the incumbent. There always seems to be the blame game around voting, by that I mean when people feel that things aren't going well they look for someone to blame and that is almost invariably the incumbent at the top. (Losing teams fire the coach not the assistants). Whether this makes sense or not is irrelevant, it's human nature to find a scapegoat. Pundits and the mediasphere get all wrapped up in the day to day minutiae of the back and forth but voters mostly vote based on gut reactions. It doesn't matter that politician A may be worse than politician B, it just matters that A isn't B.
 
2012-05-24 01:51:14 PM  

LouDobbsAwaaaay: bhcompy: The Volcker rule wouldn't have been necessary if Clinton and a bi-partisan congress didn't sign the Glass-Steagall repeal

Speaking of moving the goal posts ...


Not to mention that it's kind of a stretch to call the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act a bi-partisan bill.

Link
 
2012-05-24 01:54:51 PM  

tcan: I will boldly make 2 predictions:


There's a difference between "bold prediction" and "idiotic concern-trolling".

/statisticals, soooo pissed, etc.
 
2012-05-24 01:59:17 PM  

tcan: I believe that most voters have already made up their minds to toss the incumbent.


So they are just lying in every single poll?
 
2012-05-24 02:02:42 PM  

TheOther: TV's Vinnie: bhcompy: TV's Vinnie: It's now a bizarre death cult with Wall Street Weasels and quasi-fascists at the top

To be fair, the Democratic Party is the same way

[legacy-cdn.smosh.com image 500x332]

To be fair, it is a true answer, even if it is not the right answer.
Voting for the lesser evil is a degenerate way to select office holders.


That "both parties are bad" sh*te won't work any more. If you can't tell the glaring difference between the Democrats and the republicans these days, stay home and don't vote.
 
2012-05-24 02:03:52 PM  

Philip Francis Queeg: tcan: I believe that most voters have already made up their minds to toss the incumbent.

So they are just lying in every single poll?


My thoughts exactly.

It's even worse for Romney than it looks. While youth don't vote in massive numbers they don't have landlines and aren't usually included in polls like this. So even among favorable conditions Romney is still losing.
 
2012-05-24 02:20:53 PM  

LouDobbsAwaaaay: tcan: I will boldly make 2 predictions:

There's a difference between "bold prediction" and "idiotic concern-trolling".

/statisticals, soooo pissed, etc.


Not concerned- happy and content.
 
2012-05-24 02:26:16 PM  

thamike: The GOP


[onestarwonders.com image 500x350]


TheOther: the lesser evil

[i29.servimg.com image 440x270]


Obama outed himself as a Satan-wannabee when he signed the Bush/Obama Tax Cut extension. If Democrats are not going to differ from the Teatards on tax policy, what useful distinction or purpose is left for them?
 
2012-05-24 02:26:26 PM  

tcan: LouDobbsAwaaaay: tcan: I will boldly make 2 predictions:

There's a difference between "bold prediction" and "idiotic concern-trolling".

/statisticals, soooo pissed, etc.

Not concerned- happy and content.


There's still a difference between "bold prediction" and "idiotic happy and content trolling".
 
2012-05-24 02:28:15 PM  

TV's Vinnie: TheOther: TV's Vinnie: bhcompy: TV's Vinnie: It's now a bizarre death cult with Wall Street Weasels and quasi-fascists at the top

To be fair, the Democratic Party is the same way

[legacy-cdn.smosh.com image 500x332]

To be fair, it is a true answer, even if it is not the right answer.
Voting for the lesser evil is a degenerate way to select office holders.

That "both parties are bad" sh*te won't work any more. If you can't tell the glaring difference between the Democrats and the republicans these days, stay home and don't vote.


Naw. I'll probably vote for the Alexander/Mendoza ticket.
 
2012-05-24 02:30:50 PM  

Lunchlady: Philip Francis Queeg: tcan: I believe that most voters have already made up their minds to toss the incumbent.

So they are just lying in every single poll?

My thoughts exactly.

It's even worse for Romney than it looks. While youth don't vote in massive numbers they don't have landlines and aren't usually included in polls like this. So even among favorable conditions Romney is still losing.


What we wish, we readily believe, and what we ourselves think, we imagine others think also. - Julius Caesar

Polls represent small samples and snapshots. I always like the way people jump on polls that represent what they want to believe and ignore polls that don't. I don't disagree with the polls but you managed to ignore the part about Obama being under 50% and how that isn't good for an incumbent. I'll stick with my predictions and you can laugh at me in Nov. if I'm wrong. I don't hide the fact that I support the conservative over the liberal. I don't troll, at least not intentionally, this is simply my opinion.
 
2012-05-24 02:33:53 PM  
I forget, are we supposed to ignore the polls that have Obama ahead or only the ones that have
Romney leading, or both? Can we get a FARQ on this?
 
2012-05-24 02:38:01 PM  

tcan: I always like the way people jump on polls that represent what they want to believe and ignore polls that don't.


Like when someone makes a "bold prediction" that dissatisfaction will allow Romney to win by a wide margin, when there isn't a single poll in existence that hints that this is even remotely possible.
 
2012-05-24 02:39:51 PM  

Lunchlady: Philip Francis Queeg: tcan: I believe that most voters have already made up their minds to toss the incumbent.

So they are just lying in every single poll?

My thoughts exactly.

It's even worse for Romney than it looks. While youth don't vote in massive numbers they don't have landlines and aren't usually included in polls like this. So even among favorable conditions Romney is still losing.


Really? Are we still relying on this landline/cellphone canard to disregard polls? I bought that in 2004 and look how badly that turned out.

I for one am shocked at how close the polls are now. I don't consider Romney to be the demon you guys do, but on the other hand he's basically the GOP version of John Kerry and Obama's done a pretty good job IMO considering the hand he was dealt.
 
2012-05-24 03:05:58 PM  

Shaggy_C: coeyagi: I am sure that is EXACTLY what you'd say if Obama was down.

I typically avoid poll threads because it's the same bullshiat touted every single time. Rah-rah go team crap that accomplishes nothing.


And here you are.
 
2012-05-24 03:09:44 PM  

TheOther: Obama outed himself as a Satan-wannabee when he signed the Bush/Obama Tax Cut extension. If Democrats are not going to differ from the Teatards on tax policy, what useful distinction or purpose is left for them?


Social issues.

Are the two parties relatively similar in regards to economic issues, the Patriot Act and the Drug War? For the most part, sure. However, only the TeaPublicans are currently lobbying and legislating against civil rights for women, gay people, poor people, atheists, immigrants... Hell, literally anybody who's not a middle-aged, wealthy, American-born, straight, white male. Yes, both sides are bad, but one of those sides is currently much, much worse. If the Tea Party gains power, they will turn the US into Gilead, and even you must realise how terrifying that prospect is.

I'm a centrist, but I'll be voting Democrat every time until the GOP either shapes up or self-destructs.
 
2012-05-24 03:12:18 PM  

Fluorescent Testicle: ... middle-aged, wealthy, American-born, straight, white

Christian male.

/FTFM.
//Missed one.
 
2012-05-24 03:15:22 PM  

Fluorescent Testicle: TheOther: Obama outed himself as a Satan-wannabee when he signed the Bush/Obama Tax Cut extension. If Democrats are not going to differ from the Teatards on tax policy, what useful distinction or purpose is left for them?

Social issues.

Are the two parties relatively similar in regards to economic issues, the Patriot Act and the Drug War? For the most part, sure. However, only the TeaPublicans are currently lobbying and legislating against civil rights for women, gay people, poor people, atheists, immigrants... Hell, literally anybody who's not a middle-aged, wealthy, American-born, straight, white male. Yes, both sides are bad, but one of those sides is currently much, much worse. If the Tea Party gains power, they will turn the US into Gilead, and even you must realise how terrifying that prospect is.

I'm a centrist, but I'll be voting Democrat every time until the GOP either shapes up or self-destructs.


Buddy, let me shake your hand. My sentiments exactly. Until the Republican party stops forcing candidates and members to swear allegiance to party over country--and they do that now--then the Republican party can rot in hell. As soon as it falls apart and rebuilds itself as something besides a bunch of rich white people manipulating a bunch of useful idiots, then I'll start voting Republican again.

And pigs will fly.
 
2012-05-24 03:36:01 PM  

Debeo Summa Credo: Really? Are we still relying on this landline/cellphone canard to disregard polls?


There definitely does seem to be a difference between the two...
 
2012-05-24 03:43:00 PM  

Debeo Summa Credo: I forget, are we supposed to ignore the polls that have Obama ahead or only the ones that have Romney leading, or both? Can we get a FARQ on this?


Depends on the poll. A nationwide poll - especially a close one - isn't terribly informative since popular vote doesn't elect the President. Reputable polls in swing states are far more useful, though certainly not infallible since a lot can happen between now and election day. Still, as an Obama supporter, I'd much rather have the polls right where they are, favoring Obama by double digits among women in swing states. Guaranteed win? Absolutely not. But a hopeful sign nonetheless.

Your post is the poll version of "both sides are the same" - both sides are not the same, and not all polls are to be treated equally.
 
2012-05-24 04:02:54 PM  

The Why Not Guy: Debeo Summa Credo: I forget, are we supposed to ignore the polls that have Obama ahead or only the ones that have Romney leading, or both? Can we get a FARQ on this?

Depends on the poll. A nationwide poll - especially a close one - isn't terribly informative since popular vote doesn't elect the President. Reputable polls in swing states are far more useful, though certainly not infallible since a lot can happen between now and election day. Still, as an Obama supporter, I'd much rather have the polls right where they are, favoring Obama by double digits among women in swing states. Guaranteed win? Absolutely not. But a hopeful sign nonetheless.

Your post is the poll version of "both sides are the same" - both sides are not the same, and not all polls are to be treated equally.


Well, if Obama is ahead by double digits among women must mean he's losing among men if the polls are that close. So don't hurt your hands high fiving too much.

And some poll yesterday had Obama down 7 in Florida. I assume that was one of the ones that was "not reputable" in your opinion.
 
2012-05-24 04:10:45 PM  

Debeo Summa Credo: And some poll yesterday had Obama down 7 in Florida. I assume that was one of the ones that was "not reputable" in your opinion.


I'd love to see how you came to that conclusion.
 
2012-05-24 04:19:22 PM  

Debeo Summa Credo: Well, if Obama is ahead by double digits among women must mean he's losing among men if the polls are that close


Certainly you could cite that, then.
 
2012-05-24 04:24:31 PM  

tcan: I will boldly make 2 predictions:
Romney will win.
It won't even be close.
I believe that most voters have already made up their minds to toss the incumbent. There always seems to be the blame game around voting, by that I mean when people feel that things aren't going well they look for someone to blame and that is almost invariably the incumbent at the top. (Losing teams fire the coach not the assistants). Whether this makes sense or not is irrelevant, it's human nature to find a scapegoat. Pundits and the mediasphere get all wrapped up in the day to day minutiae of the back and forth but voters mostly vote based on gut reactions. It doesn't matter that politician A may be worse than politician B, it just matters that A isn't B.


A Republican making idiotic predictions. I am shocked.
 
2012-05-24 06:05:18 PM  
We'll find out if these numbers hold after Walker wins the re-call
 
2012-05-24 06:09:08 PM  

Fluorescent Testicle: TheOther: Obama outed himself as a Satan-wannabee when he signed the Bush/Obama Tax Cut extension. If Democrats are not going to differ from the Teatards on tax policy, what useful distinction or purpose is left for them?

Social issues.

Are the two parties relatively similar in regards to economic issues, the Patriot Act and the Drug War? For the most part, sure. However, only the TeaPublicans are currently lobbying and legislating against civil rights for women, gay people, poor people, atheists, immigrants... Hell, literally anybody who's not a middle-aged, wealthy, American-born, straight, white male. Yes, both sides are bad, but one of those sides is currently much, much worse. If the Tea Party gains power, they will turn the US into Gilead, and even you must realise how terrifying that prospect is.

I'm a centrist, but I'll be voting Democrat every time until the GOP either shapes up or self-destructs.


How the GOP wins any election while advocating that half of the eligible voter population should be kept in second-class citizen status is beyond me. I know there are 'think of the children' and petty bourgeois property interests involved, but...dayum!

To your argument about social issues, a hereditary aristocracy of wealth threatens all of the ills you mention, plus utter destruction of the middle class and its reduction to industrial serfdom. My minimum standard for any 'progressive' party is that it oppose this. This is the absolute LEAST it has to do, for the interests of the nation as a whole, even if it means forgoing some promised extension of unemployment benefits.

There are lot of things Obama has done to disappoint me: no single-payer, no confrontation-'take it back to the voters' with the GOP on HCR; Gitmo is still open. Lieberman still chairs the Senate committee on Homeland Security. Patriot Act still in force. The War on non-American brown people...and Americans... continues in the name of keeping drugs out of the hands of consenting adults.

All that is flesh to me ...and it hurts...but I could swallow that hurt, but tax policy is bone.
 
2012-05-24 06:17:32 PM  

zerkalo: We gonna do this every day? Y'all realize it's still May, right?


The reason it's in the news is because it means people are really, really disliking the party actively advocating theocracy.

/'Christian nation' means what, again?
 
2012-05-24 06:27:35 PM  

TheOther: thamike: The GOP


[onestarwonders.com image 500x350]


TheOther: the lesser evil

[i29.servimg.com image 440x270]

Obama outed himself as a Satan-wannabee when he signed the Bush/Obama Tax Cut extension. If Democrats are not going to differ from the Teatards on tax policy, what useful distinction or purpose is left for them?


I can only have this back-and-forth 8 times a year.
 
MFL
2012-05-24 06:28:38 PM  
I'm not too worried about those polls. They are going to be all over the place.

A. None of Mr. McCain's states appear in real jeopardy for the GOP this year.

B. A duplicate 2008 performance is a pipe dream. (A record of failure will do that). He's now forced to fight for states he easily won in 2008 and red states that switched sides last time around he will have to fight for his life to hang on to.

Historically red states Obama won last time.
1. Indiana (Obama won by 1%) = Not in play. Solidly GOP this time.
2. North Carolina (Obama won by .32%) = Solidly GOP, moving towards not being in play.
3. Virginia = Up for grabs

Battleground
1. Florida GOP 2004, Obama 2008 = Up for grabs
2. Ohio GOP 2004, Obama 2008 = Up for grabs

If Romney wins all of these which he has a good chance of doing, he will only need to pick up one more of any of these states that are in play.

Iowa, Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Penn, or Wisconsin* (my upset pick).

This election is an entirely different animal than 2008. Last time everything broke Obama's way...and I mean everything. It will not happen again. Everything is trending away from him.....the tide is going out.
 
2012-05-24 06:59:19 PM  

MFL: This election is an entirely different animal than 2008. Last time everything broke Obama's way...and I mean everything. It will not happen again. Everything is trending away from him.....the tide is going out.


Meh. Romney has already trotted out just about everything he has against Obama. The Obama campaign has barely started. They are just phoning it in right now and saving the good stuff for closer to the election. When you start seeing the Romney vs. Romney ads then you'll know the campaign has actually switched out of first gear.
 
2012-05-24 09:27:00 PM  

Debeo Summa Credo: And some poll yesterday had Obama down 7 in Florida. I assume that was one of the ones that was "not reputable" in your opinion.


Nothing ends a conversation quicker than asking a troll to explain how they came to a ridiculous conclusion.
 
2012-05-24 11:10:17 PM  
Not to rain on your parade, but do any of you lefties cheering this poll realize that the last time NBC polled those 3 states ( March ) Obama led by far more?

Ohio: Was +12, now +6
Florida: Was +8 now +4
Virginia: Was +17, now +4

Obama's got it in the bag though. Keep telling yourselves that.
 
2012-05-24 11:34:54 PM  

The_Sheriff_Is_A_Niiii: Obama's got it in the bag though. Keep telling yourselves that.


I don't think anyone is saying it's in the bag.
 
2012-05-25 12:29:25 AM  
Romney will need a minimum of 2 of the three big states - OH, PA and FL. And that's if he gets lucky and gets all of the smaller states - VA, NC, CO, NM, NV and IA. If he doesn't get at least half of the bigger of those (VA, NC, CO) he will need all three.

The math is NOT kind to Romney at all.
 
2012-05-25 12:31:00 AM  

The_Sheriff_Is_A_Niiii: Not to rain on your parade, but do any of you lefties cheering this poll realize that the last time NBC polled those 3 states ( March ) Obama led by far more?

Ohio: Was +12, now +6
Florida: Was +8 now +4
Virginia: Was +17, now +4

Obama's got it in the bag though. Keep telling yourselves that.


Well, getting the actual candiate will tighten things up. Still, there could be a lot of reasons for those rather incredible swings and as campaign advertising starts and as politicos decend on them.
 
2012-05-25 12:42:21 AM  
(reposted from a previous thread, updated for clarity)

Right now I have a 300 to 238 win for Obama - he gets OH and PA, Romney gets FL of the big states, Obama runs small states save VA and NV, gets a surprising win in NC, gets one vote in NB, everything in MA. Percentages will be about 52 to 47 with a significant write-in contingent (1%) spread among conservatives - Palin, Paul, ect.

Here's a fun experiment: If things go really well for Obama- MO, VA and FL, plus what I listed above, all go Obama. If that happens, we'd know our President by 10 PM EST, assuming polls close at 7 PM MST, and if the states are called right at the turn of the clock. He'd have 278 (270 required to win) with no Pacific Coast states having finished voting. He'd win by 352 at the end.
 
2012-05-25 02:22:34 AM  
The local newspaper published an article this morning that Romney's lead over Obama has increased. Hmm
 
2012-05-25 02:25:39 AM  

MFL: I'm not too worried about those polls. They are going to be all over the place.

A. None of Mr. McCain's states appear in real jeopardy for the GOP this year.

B. A duplicate 2008 performance is a pipe dream. (A record of failure will do that). He's now forced to fight for states he easily won in 2008 and red states that switched sides last time around he will have to fight for his life to hang on to.

Historically red states Obama won last time.
1. Indiana (Obama won by 1%) = Not in play. Solidly GOP this time.
2. North Carolina (Obama won by .32%) = Solidly GOP, moving towards not being in play.
3. Virginia = Up for grabs

Battleground
1. Florida GOP 2004, Obama 2008 = Up for grabs
2. Ohio GOP 2004, Obama 2008 = Up for grabs

If Romney wins all of these which he has a good chance of doing, he will only need to pick up one more of any of these states that are in play.

Iowa, Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Penn, or Wisconsin* (my upset pick).

This election is an entirely different animal than 2008. Last time everything broke Obama's way...and I mean everything. It will not happen again. Everything is trending away from him.....the tide is going out.


Who's this "GOP" dude who ran for president in 2004?

Funny how the last Republican president has become the Great Unmentionable among Republicans.
 
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