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(Mercury News)   Good news. If you bought Facebook stock on the first day, you've already lost money. OK, so maybe not good news for you   (mercurynews.com) divider line 93
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1756 clicks; posted to Business » on 21 May 2012 at 11:08 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-05-21 10:35:43 AM  
like
 
2012-05-21 11:11:33 AM  
I imagine the regular people who bought into the IPO hype are a lot like that episode of The Simpsons where Lisa wrecked Homer's barbeque.

"It's just a little down, it's still worth it, it's still worth it!"

But, well, that's what happens when people with a complete dearth of common sense start trying to be Gordon Gecko.... nobody tried to hide the fact that this company is worth nowhere near $100 billion dollars and anybody with a little sense could plainly see it was dubious at best to believe they had the ability to reach that mark with their current game plan.
 
2012-05-21 11:12:23 AM  
A friend was excited that he got in at $38. He was not so happy when I offered him $10 per share.

/Also owns Zynga and is just waiting for it to bounce back. Any day now.
//I can't make fun. I'm getting killed in this market too.
 
2012-05-21 11:14:30 AM  
HahahahahahahHahahahahahahHahahahahahahHahahahahahahHahahahahahahHahah ahahahah

Everyone around me, "it's only going to go up!! You have to get in on this ipo"
 
2012-05-21 11:16:01 AM  
It was pretty clear when it just barely held above the IPO price that it would fall through this morning.

But I wouldn't be surprised if it hits both $20 and $100 this year. The former based on metrics, the latter based on mania which is pretty easy to jump start if the "Facebook can't match expectations" stories give way to "Facebook is taking over the internet" hype.
 
2012-05-21 11:23:51 AM  
It's almost criminal the way the morons touted this IPO. The guy that works at the coffee stand down in the hospital dumped $2500.00 into the IPO and I'm pretty sure this is money that he can't really afford to lose. When I talked to him last week he said he was buying because of all the hipsters running the stories on NPR about how amazing the IPO was going to be... Super nice guy but he just got caught up in the hype.

I think the same folks are now doing stories about how you should wait till it hits $10 - $12. Meanwhile the coffee guy lost his ass.
 
2012-05-21 11:27:39 AM  
I'm a horrible predicter of trends in the stock market, but any idiot could have seen this one coming.
 
2012-05-21 11:32:08 AM  
$17 was the target I heard last night.

/Unlike
 
2012-05-21 11:35:24 AM  
Goldman Sachs thanks you all for your contributions!
 
2012-05-21 11:36:59 AM  
www.troll.me
 
2012-05-21 11:40:18 AM  
Facebook's partner banks are snapping up shares to shore up the price.

Telegraph.co.uk 5/19

A revised S-1 filing made with the US Securities and Exchange Commission disclosed that Facebook's five key banks ended up owning $13.86bn. Morgan Stanley, its lead adviser, ended the day owning 162m shares, worth £6.16bn, followed by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, which ended the day with $3.2bn and $2.4bn holdings respectively. Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Barclays Capital each held $1.04bn stakes.

Facebook's shares finally began trading at 11.30am local time in New York on Friday morning, following a series of technical glitches as the stock exchange's systems faced difficulties delivering execution messages.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission, the financial regulator, has said it will review the incident to understand the cause of the delay.

Nasdaq has established an appeals process for those people who did not get their orders processed because of technical glitches at the start of trading, while the banks underwriting the deal also came under fire for the underwhelming performance of the shares.




Also, I am sure there is NOTHING shady about that "glitch" that kept people from buying the shares they wanted to.
 
2012-05-21 11:41:55 AM  
Well, it's trading at 100 times earnings so I'm not sure who thought this was going to be a good buy right out of the gate.
 
2012-05-21 11:43:02 AM  
What? Companies overhype their value to make them more desirable to suck ... er, uhhh ... investors? Unpossible!
 
2012-05-21 11:48:30 AM  

xtragrind: It's almost criminal the way the morons touted this IPO. The guy that works at the coffee stand down in the hospital dumped $2500.00 into the IPO and I'm pretty sure this is money that he can't really afford to lose. When I talked to him last week he said he was buying because of all the hipsters running the stories on NPR about how amazing the IPO was going to be... Super nice guy but he just got caught up in the hype.

I think the same folks are now doing stories about how you should wait till it hits $10 - $12. Meanwhile the coffee guy lost his ass.


"Hipsters running the stories on NPR"?

First: Do you even listen to NPR? It's too mainstream for hipsters.

Second: Facebook is too mainstream for hipsters

Third: Hipsters giving stock tips?
 
2012-05-21 11:49:32 AM  

SoCalSurfer: HahahahahahahHahahahahahahHahahahahahahHahahahahahahHahahahahahahHaha h ahahahah

Everyone around me, "it's only going to go up!! You have to get in on this ipo"


Isn't that what they say about EVERY IPO? Of course all the suckers who bought AFTER it came public will lose their ass as the insiders cash out. Over time you may or may not make money on that but most people's time horizons aren't even close to being that long.
 
2012-05-21 11:50:18 AM  
encrypted-tbn3.google.com
 
2012-05-21 11:50:52 AM  

Parthenogenetic: xtragrind: It's almost criminal the way the morons touted this IPO. The guy that works at the coffee stand down in the hospital dumped $2500.00 into the IPO and I'm pretty sure this is money that he can't really afford to lose. When I talked to him last week he said he was buying because of all the hipsters running the stories on NPR about how amazing the IPO was going to be... Super nice guy but he just got caught up in the hype.

I think the same folks are now doing stories about how you should wait till it hits $10 - $12. Meanwhile the coffee guy lost his ass.

"Hipsters running the stories on NPR"?

First: Do you even listen to NPR? It's too mainstream for hipsters.

Second: Facebook is too mainstream for hipsters

Third: Hipsters giving stock tips?


One old stock market anecdote says that when your chauffeur starts giving stock tips then it's time to cash out. I guess you could stretch that to include hippies.
 
2012-05-21 11:52:51 AM  
The only people I feel bad for are the employees who's shares are vested.

Imagine working there (assuming they can't sell for 6 months) and just watching your hypothetical riches dwindle before your eyes.
 
2012-05-21 11:56:40 AM  

SoCalSurfer: The only people I feel bad for are the employees who's shares are vested.


Whose.
 
2012-05-21 11:57:28 AM  
With all the arguments over whether FB is a good investment aside, the interesting thing about Friday is how badly Nasdaq and multiple brokerage companies screwed things up. It's no surprise the stock fell flat. Most people who bought it, weren't getting reports that the order was filled and had no idea (1) if the trade went through and (2) if so, how much they paid. I threw in a low limit order and was able to modify it (even thought the stock was trading under the limit amount) when it was quickly apparent that there would be no bounce. My account listed the status of the order as "pending modify" throughout the weekend. I called and was informed that Scottrade was having to update everything manually when Nasdaq failed to automatically generate trade execution reports. I was anticipating being royally farked this morning because there is no doubt that the hangover from Friday was going to push this stock down below the IPO price.

This morning, before the market opened, the status of my order finally updated to the modified limit order, which wasn't filled on Friday. I immediately cancelled it. When I got to work this morning, I placed another limit order in the mid $33 range and it went through no problem.

This worked out surprisingly well when I had no anticipation that it would I'm assuming there will be a nice class action against Nasdaq and several brokers at some point.
 
2012-05-21 12:00:44 PM  

SoCalSurfer: The only people I feel bad for are the employees who's shares are vested.

Imagine working there (assuming they can't sell for 6 months) and just watching your hypothetical riches dwindle before your eyes.


Yea, but at least they got stock prior to it going public (I assume) so it was free money, especially if they sold some right off the bat...

It's just like the Bono thing, those people made out like bandits cause they were ALLOWED to buy into private stock in the company, the people buying in the public stock are the ones giving their money to the previous owners. If they're lucky it'll go up, but until Facebook can show a way to make some profit, all I see is a free service still with a shiat ton of users.

/does anyone really read or click the ads there?
 
2012-05-21 12:03:08 PM  

Kar98:
Whose


He just told you: the employees who's shares are vested.
 
2012-05-21 12:04:50 PM  
It had to open at that price because Zuckerberg's ego wouldn't let the company go public with less than $100 billion market capitalization.
 
2012-05-21 12:07:19 PM  

KellyX: SoCalSurfer: The only people I feel bad for are the employees who's shares are vested.

Imagine working there (assuming they can't sell for 6 months) and just watching your hypothetical riches dwindle before your eyes.

Yea, but at least they got stock prior to it going public (I assume) so it was free money, especially if they sold some right off the bat...

It's just like the Bono thing, those people made out like bandits cause they were ALLOWED to buy into private stock in the company, the people buying in the public stock are the ones giving their money to the previous owners. If they're lucky it'll go up, but until Facebook can show a way to make some profit, all I see is a free service still with a shiat ton of users.

/does anyone really read or click the ads there?


Yeah it is basically free money but still they most likely aren't allowed to sell any for a period of time for various reasons.

One being: if you suddenly had a million dollars or more, how motivated would you be to keep showing up on time? Hell I'd do the bare minimum to get to the next vesting period.

/ bad example, I realize a million really isn't that much in the big scheme of things. At least in california
 
2012-05-21 12:09:48 PM  

Parthenogenetic: Third: Hipsters giving stock tips?


My portfolio is full of underground startups. You've probably never heard of them.
 
2012-05-21 12:12:01 PM  

SoCalSurfer: KellyX: SoCalSurfer: The only people I feel bad for are the employees who's shares are vested.

Imagine working there (assuming they can't sell for 6 months) and just watching your hypothetical riches dwindle before your eyes.

Yea, but at least they got stock prior to it going public (I assume) so it was free money, especially if they sold some right off the bat...

It's just like the Bono thing, those people made out like bandits cause they were ALLOWED to buy into private stock in the company, the people buying in the public stock are the ones giving their money to the previous owners. If they're lucky it'll go up, but until Facebook can show a way to make some profit, all I see is a free service still with a shiat ton of users.

/does anyone really read or click the ads there?

Yeah it is basically free money but still they most likely aren't allowed to sell any for a period of time for various reasons.

One being: if you suddenly had a million dollars or more, how motivated would you be to keep showing up on time? Hell I'd do the bare minimum to get to the next vesting period.

/ bad example, I realize a million really isn't that much in the big scheme of things. At least in california


shiat, give me a million and i'd live forever on interest alone I suspect.
 
2012-05-21 12:12:43 PM  

imontheinternet: Parthenogenetic: Third: Hipsters giving stock tips?

My portfolio is full of underground startups. You've probably never heard of them.


I sell all my stocks before anyone even knows the companies exist.
 
2012-05-21 12:12:44 PM  
If history has taught us anything, it's that social networks are robust businesses that last forever.
 
2012-05-21 12:19:14 PM  

Parthenogenetic: "Hipsters running the stories on NPR"?

First: Do you even listen to NPR? It's too mainstream for hipsters.

Second: Facebook is too mainstream for hipsters

Third: Hipsters giving stock tips?




lol.

What I meant is that in the face of common sense, there was a barrage of stories over the last few weeks about why FB is an amazing buy because of some unknown reason that only super-insiders know about. You were somehow "not cool" if you said that FB was overpriced and that the company doesn't actually do anything.
 
2012-05-21 12:20:18 PM  

SoCalSurfer: The only people I feel bad for are the employees who's shares are vested.

Imagine working there (assuming they can't sell for 6 months) and just watching your hypothetical riches dwindle before your eyes.


The lowest employees probably have stock certificates piled up like a 48 pack of toilet paper. Even if they lose half or 3/4, they are probably still doing well.
 
2012-05-21 12:23:04 PM  
So, is Zuckerburg living on the streets now while his mail-order wife sells her body for cash?
 
2012-05-21 12:31:22 PM  

SoCalSurfer: The only people I feel bad for are the employees who's shares are vested.

Imagine working there (assuming they can't sell for 6 months) and just watching your hypothetical riches dwindle before your eyes.


I don't. Their value was horribly overstated, a few days ago, they aren't losing anything they just aren't meeting some inflated expectations. They will merely find out what it is actually worth. If they were making a fortune before, they will make a slightly smaller fortune.

I don't feel sorry for anyone involved. If you are going to invest do your research, not just what some guy on the TV or radio says. And while stories favouring FB were more obvious, there were a ton questioning the valuation.
 
2012-05-21 12:35:35 PM  

The_Sheriff_Is_A_Niiii: SoCalSurfer: HahahahahahahHahahahahahahHahahahahahahHahahahahahahHahahahahahahHaha h ahahahah

Everyone around me, "it's only going to go up!! You have to get in on this ipo"

Isn't that what they say about EVERY IPO? Of course all the suckers who bought AFTER it came public will lose their ass as the insiders cash out. Over time you may or may not make money on that but most people's time horizons aren't even close to being that long.


No.

Everyone thought this was going to be google 2.0...That this thing was destined for $600. The problem is: "Everyone thought this was going to be google 2.0" (the company might still be a $600/share company...but it's not happening overnight)

The people who made a killing in Google (or apple back when it was trading at $5 per share) were the people who took a leap of faith on company...they saw something that no one else did...
 
2012-05-21 12:35:49 PM  

DubyaHater: So, is Zuckerburg living on the streets now while his mail-order wife sells her body for cash?


Eh, nobody was questioning that Zucky would get his cut and reap it in. But everybody else, i.e. people /buying/ fb stock? Suckers.
 
2012-05-21 12:38:35 PM  

The_Sheriff_Is_A_Niiii: Parthenogenetic: xtragrind: It's almost criminal the way the morons touted this IPO. The guy that works at the coffee stand down in the hospital dumped $2500.00 into the IPO and I'm pretty sure this is money that he can't really afford to lose. When I talked to him last week he said he was buying because of all the hipsters running the stories on NPR about how amazing the IPO was going to be... Super nice guy but he just got caught up in the hype.

I think the same folks are now doing stories about how you should wait till it hits $10 - $12. Meanwhile the coffee guy lost his ass.

"Hipsters running the stories on NPR"?

First: Do you even listen to NPR? It's too mainstream for hipsters.

Second: Facebook is too mainstream for hipsters

Third: Hipsters giving stock tips?

One old stock market anecdote says that when your chauffeur starts giving stock tips then it's time to cash out. I guess you could stretch that to include hippies.


Hipster tip: hippies are not hipsters.
 
2012-05-21 12:44:15 PM  

xtragrind: What I meant is that in the face of common sense, there was a barrage of stories over the last few weeks about why FB is an amazing buy because of some unknown reason that only super-insiders know about. You were somehow "not cool" if you said that FB was overpriced and that the company doesn't actually do anything.


Not really arguing with you here, but being "not cool" is the essence of hipsterism.

Hating on Facebook is now too mainstream. That's why I've taken a long position, on margin, with a broker you probably haven't heard of.
 
2012-05-21 12:44:55 PM  
You remember BUYX and IPET? I do. It was the end of the road.
 
2012-05-21 12:45:56 PM  
Let's see: Slowing growth, profits down YoY, expenses doubling, P/E already at 109. Yeah...if you bought this, you are the embodiment of the old saying about a fool and his money.

And people think AAPL is a bubble?
 
2012-05-21 12:46:12 PM  
So the real question here is, what's Facebook going to do to get revenues up? Are we going to start having to answer trivia questions about Doritos or McDonalds before being allowed to post a status update?
 
2012-05-21 12:46:24 PM  

DubyaHater: So, is Zuckerburg living on the streets now while his mail-order wife sells her body for cash?


Read that as zoidberg

Speaking of which, "the sandwich heavy portfolio pays off for the hungry investor!"
 
2012-05-21 12:48:45 PM  

bhcompy: You remember BUYX and IPET? I do. It was the end of the road.


What was BUYX? I can't remember and the googles aren't helping.
 
2012-05-21 12:49:06 PM  
How many of those new millionaires are now thousand-aires?
 
2012-05-21 12:50:08 PM  

KellyX: shiat, give me a million and i'd live forever on interest alone I suspect.


Doubtful. You'd be lucky to get 3% in the best of times, and these are hardly the best of times. And interest is taxed as income, not capital gains. Call it a 25% cut for federal and state taxes combined. So you'd be living off of $22,500, or $1,875 a month. Not unreasonable right now, but that's best case. Even then, inflation will make that untenable pretty quickly, and if when you have an emergency that requires you to dip into the million, your future income will drop, which may begin a vicious cycle.

I'd say FU money doesn't start until around $5 million. That's enough to build capital while still living off the investment gains.
 
2012-05-21 01:01:07 PM  
I wish I had money to piss away on overvalued stock.
 
2012-05-21 01:02:18 PM  

RickyWilliams'sBong: And people think AAPL is a bubble?


Hell, APPL's P/E is 13.49. It should still be a "buy".
 
2012-05-21 01:03:24 PM  

Rapmaster2000: bhcompy: You remember BUYX and IPET? I do. It was the end of the road.

What was BUYX? I can't remember and the googles aren't helping.


Buy.com, IPO 2/7/2000.

Buy.com raised $182 million in an initial public offering today.

Indicating strong demand, the online superstore sold 14 million shares at $13 per share, above its preliminary price range of $10 to $12 per share. The Aliso Viejo, Calif.-based company will begin trading tomorrow on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol "BUYX."

Buy.com will see about $169 million from the stock sale after fees and expenses, according to Hambrecht & Quist, which led the public offering.

The company's IPO is the culmination of a long waiting period for Buy.com, which first began wooing investment bankers to take the company public last spring. During the company's mandatory quiet period, it has repeatedly added or planned new categories such as music, golf and travel. It has also gone through a management upheaval.

During the fourth quarter, Buy.com lost $49.6 million on $200.7 million in revenues. For the year, the company lost $130.1 million on $596.8 million in revenues.

Buy.com has been operating on negative profit margins for both the quarter and the year. During the fourth quarter, Buy.com's goods and services cost it $1.6 million more than it charged consumers for those goods and services. For all of 1999, Buy.com lost $6.7 million on its sales.

Buy.com founder Scot Blum, who owned 53.9 percent of the company before the stock offering, will have a 48.1 percent stake in the company after the IPO. Softbank will see its stake decrease from 33.3 percent of the company to 29.7 percent.

Formerly the company's chairman and chief executive, Blum has since resigned from both positions and from Buy.com's board of directors.



Source

I love the dotcom era. So ridiculous
 
2012-05-21 01:05:44 PM  
I still kick myself for passing up the chance to buy Google stock. :(
 
2012-05-21 01:05:55 PM  

jayhawk88: So the real question here is, what's Facebook going to do to get revenues up? Are we going to start having to answer trivia questions about Doritos or McDonalds before being allowed to post a status update?


More shiat to clog up your news stream.. Their newest shiat is `Trending Articles' that users can't opt out of.
 
2012-05-21 01:06:58 PM  

Rapmaster2000: bhcompy: You remember BUYX and IPET? I do. It was the end of the road.

What was BUYX? I can't remember and the googles aren't helping.


It was Buy.com, which at IPO was priced at $13.

It tanked, and was delisted from the NASDAQ in about a year. The founder bought up the outstanding shares at 17 cents, and took the company private.
 
2012-05-21 01:09:18 PM  

styckx: jayhawk88: So the real question here is, what's Facebook going to do to get revenues up? Are we going to start having to answer trivia questions about Doritos or McDonalds before being allowed to post a status update?

More shiat to clog up your news stream.. Their newest shiat is `Trending Articles' that users can't opt out of.


Trending Article: A New Study Shows that Mentos are Mentastic!
 
2012-05-21 01:11:43 PM  

Kar98: SoCalSurfer: The only people I feel bad for are the employees who's shares are vested.

Whose.


There's.
 
2012-05-21 01:12:26 PM  
Invisible hand in action.
 
2012-05-21 01:13:51 PM  
I just don't understand how no one saw this coming. I guess maybe if you're a Gen Y type, you would think this would be a great idea. But the rest of the world lived through all those dot-com IPOs turning into big busts in the late '90s. Why would things be any different now?
 
2012-05-21 01:19:12 PM  
Google's IPO price, $85

Today, $612

Who knows?
 
2012-05-21 01:22:27 PM  

Urine The Money: Google's IPO price, $85

Today, $612

Who knows?



Because their companies are so similar.
 
2012-05-21 01:33:51 PM  

mrtoadswildride: The_Sheriff_Is_A_Niiii: SoCalSurfer: HahahahahahahHahahahahahahHahahahahahahHahahahahahahHahahahahahahHaha h ahahahah

Everyone around me, "it's only going to go up!! You have to get in on this ipo"

Isn't that what they say about EVERY IPO? Of course all the suckers who bought AFTER it came public will lose their ass as the insiders cash out. Over time you may or may not make money on that but most people's time horizons aren't even close to being that long.

No.

Everyone thought this was going to be google 2.0...That this thing was destined for $600. The problem is: "Everyone thought this was going to be google 2.0" (the company might still be a $600/share company...but it's not happening overnight)

The people who made a killing in Google (or apple back when it was trading at $5 per share) were the people who took a leap of faith on company...they saw something that no one else did...


The problem is that at this stage it is not comparable to Google of 2004. Or even Apple. There is no indication that this is a growth stock. User growth is declining, competition is growing, other indicators are bad as well.
In contrast, in 2004 Google had much better growth figures and had a better long term growth position because it was branching out into a number of new services (Google News appeared in 2002 and Gmail was introduced in 2004, a month before filing for the IPO) Facebook has not shown any growth opportunities, they aren't adding new services, their growth is stalling in their core service.

While I don't know the history of Apple, it was always focused on developing products, which at least provides a strong avenue for growth so your investment was betting on one project being a success. It just took one (iPod) to make the company. Facebook is about providing one service there is no reason to think they will introduce anything new to grow through.

Yeah, there are reasons to invest in Facebook, but the $100 billion valuation and $100 P/E are extreme.
 
2012-05-21 01:34:41 PM  

jayhawk88: So the real question here is, what's Facebook going to do to get revenues up? Are we going to start having to answer trivia questions about Doritos or McDonalds before being allowed to post a status update?


Today when I logged in at work I was not automatically directed to my home page (the first time ever this has happened). Instead, it was to an App "approval screen" (the one where you have to allow permission, etc) for some "sponsored app". There wasn't even a "no thanks" button, I had to click on my news feed icon in the upper right corner.

So it begins...
 
2012-05-21 01:35:21 PM  

GameSprocket: RickyWilliams'sBong: And people think AAPL is a bubble?

Hell, APPL's P/E is 13.49. It should still be a "buy".


Right, and on pretty much any objective measure (growth, markets, dividends, debt, etc), Apple is the obvious buy vs FB.
 
2012-05-21 01:50:51 PM  

Fish in a Barrel: KellyX: shiat, give me a million and i'd live forever on interest alone I suspect.

Doubtful. You'd be lucky to get 3% in the best of times, and these are hardly the best of times. And interest is taxed as income, not capital gains. Call it a 25% cut for federal and state taxes combined. So you'd be living off of $22,500, or $1,875 a month. Not unreasonable right now, but that's best case. Even then, inflation will make that untenable pretty quickly, and if when you have an emergency that requires you to dip into the million, your future income will drop, which may begin a vicious cycle.

I'd say FU money doesn't start until around $5 million. That's enough to build capital while still living off the investment gains.


Oh i'm very fugal and prob would continue my job anyhow... I'd need something to do. So I'd just let it build up or some some of the interest buying FB stock *snickers*
 
hej
2012-05-21 01:51:02 PM  

SoCalSurfer: HahahahahahahHahahahahahahHahahahahahahHahahahahahahHahahahahahahHaha h ahahahah

Everyone around me, "it's only going to go up!! You have to get in on this ipo"


I recall people saying the same thing about real estate prices.
 
2012-05-21 02:01:58 PM  
I'd like to say "HaHa", but my wife said "No schadenfreude, even if you've come to despise Facebook and what it enables".
 
2012-05-21 02:17:08 PM  

meat0918: I'd like to say "HaHa", but my wife said "No schadenfreude, even if you've come to despise Facebook and what it enables".


How much did she buy?
 
2012-05-21 02:29:24 PM  
assets.gearlive.com

> facebook
 
2012-05-21 02:33:28 PM  

Name_Omitted: meat0918: I'd like to say "HaHa", but my wife said "No schadenfreude, even if you've come to despise Facebook and what it enables".

How much did she buy?


None. She hates the stock market, and doesn't trust all those people still saying "but the market always goes up!"
 
2012-05-21 02:54:49 PM  

Optimus Primate: jayhawk88: So the real question here is, what's Facebook going to do to get revenues up? Are we going to start having to answer trivia questions about Doritos or McDonalds before being allowed to post a status update?

Today when I logged in at work I was not automatically directed to my home page (the first time ever this has happened). Instead, it was to an App "approval screen" (the one where you have to allow permission, etc) for some "sponsored app". There wasn't even a "no thanks" button, I had to click on my news feed icon in the upper right corner.

So it begins...


I basically never log into facebook except when my girlfriend makes me, so I am no authority on the habits of facebook users. But if this anecdote is representative of their new strategy, they are in panic mode. This is the kind of thing that will actively drive users away.

I wouldn't be surprised if Zuck pulled out all the stops for the next 6 months to drive up earnings earnings in the short term, got out a good report to inflate the stock, and then cashed out before the user base starts to decline (which I guarantee it will within the next year).
 
2012-05-21 03:06:43 PM  

LedZeppelinRule: Optimus Primate: jayhawk88: So the real question here is, what's Facebook going to do to get revenues up? Are we going to start having to answer trivia questions about Doritos or McDonalds before being allowed to post a status update?

Today when I logged in at work I was not automatically directed to my home page (the first time ever this has happened). Instead, it was to an App "approval screen" (the one where you have to allow permission, etc) for some "sponsored app". There wasn't even a "no thanks" button, I had to click on my news feed icon in the upper right corner.

So it begins...

I basically never log into facebook except when my girlfriend makes me, so I am no authority on the habits of facebook users. But if this anecdote is representative of their new strategy, they are in panic mode. This is the kind of thing that will actively drive users away.

I wouldn't be surprised if Zuck pulled out all the stops for the next 6 months to drive up earnings earnings in the short term, got out a good report to inflate the stock, and then cashed out before the user base starts to decline (which I guarantee it will within the next year).




If that worries you, just look at what's being trialled in New Zealand.

$2 to highlight your post.
 
2012-05-21 03:16:29 PM  

meat0918: None. She hates the stock market, and doesn't trust all those people still saying "but the market always goes up!"


That's good, but a bit like saying you don't trust people who tell you that you don't have to look both ways before crossing a four lane highway.... the fact that some people are so stupid that they lack the basic sense god gifted a turnip doesn't mean that whatever action they're engaged in can't be done sensibly.

If you're that off-put by the market, just dip your toe in by buying some stock in companies you know and use and feel confident are doing the right thing by you, especially those that offer dividends.

Stocks go up, stocks go down. As long as you don't treat it like a casino or think you're going to be the next Warren Buffet it's really not as scary as some people like to make it seem. You're not going to get fabulously wealthy overnight by investing like a reasonable, honest person (as opposed to, say, being a bottom feeding miser working for JPM or Golden Sacks...) but it also greatly reduces the odds your choices will ever put you in the poorhouse.
 
2012-05-21 03:22:32 PM  

Bungles: LedZeppelinRule: Optimus Primate: jayhawk88: So the real question here is, what's Facebook going to do to get revenues up? Are we going to start having to answer trivia questions about Doritos or McDonalds before being allowed to post a status update?

Today when I logged in at work I was not automatically directed to my home page (the first time ever this has happened). Instead, it was to an App "approval screen" (the one where you have to allow permission, etc) for some "sponsored app". There wasn't even a "no thanks" button, I had to click on my news feed icon in the upper right corner.

So it begins...

I basically never log into facebook except when my girlfriend makes me, so I am no authority on the habits of facebook users. But if this anecdote is representative of their new strategy, they are in panic mode. This is the kind of thing that will actively drive users away.

I wouldn't be surprised if Zuck pulled out all the stops for the next 6 months to drive up earnings earnings in the short term, got out a good report to inflate the stock, and then cashed out before the user base starts to decline (which I guarantee it will within the next year).



If that worries you, just look at what's being trialled in New Zealand.

$2 to highlight your post.


I'm not sure "worried" is the right term. Sure as hell seemed desperate to try and "trick" me into accepting an app (I do not use a single FB App or game and intend to keep it that way). It felt very...well...'MySpacey'

Such little tricks come across as very deceptive and unsavory, and they will start pushing people off the platform. As far as "paying 2 dollars to highlight a post" I will NEVER pay Facebook any direct monies. I could care less who reads my posts other than direct family and close friends.

Also, if Facebook was to disappear...I would not weep (even though I use it almost daily)
 
2012-05-21 03:24:53 PM  

Fish in a Barrel: KellyX: shiat, give me a million and i'd live forever on interest alone I suspect.

Doubtful. You'd be lucky to get 3% in the best of times, and these are hardly the best of times. And interest is taxed as income, not capital gains. Call it a 25% cut for federal and state taxes combined. So you'd be living off of $22,500, or $1,875 a month. Not unreasonable right now, but that's best case. Even then, inflation will make that untenable pretty quickly, and if when you have an emergency that requires you to dip into the million, your future income will drop, which may begin a vicious cycle.

I'd say FU money doesn't start until around $5 million. That's enough to build capital while still living off the investment gains.


Lets see. The house is paid off, the RV is paid off, no car note either. Yup, I could live off the interest of $1 Million. And I could still work on a couple of projects a year if I wanted some extra spending money, or if said projects appealed to me.
 
2012-05-21 03:28:13 PM  
This for me is this like gawking at a car wreck. I can't stop clicking on all the Facebook stock fail stories. Been delightful to say the least.
 
2012-05-21 03:29:37 PM  
In 2015, there will a "social network" identifier that combines your phone number, profiles, bank account, email, geo-location, and all other sundry crap that people have. Everyone will have one.


And it won't be Facebook.
 
2012-05-21 03:35:42 PM  
How long before there will be a CraigsList ad for trading Facebook stock for a 6 pack of beer?
 
2012-05-21 03:41:34 PM  

SoCalSurfer: The only people I feel bad for are the employees who's shares are vested.

Imagine working there (assuming they can't sell for 6 months) and just watching your hypothetical riches dwindle before your eyes.


Been there, done that. Thank god I took the option of more money, less stock when I signed up.

My assumption is that the rank and file have options, just like I did at the company I worked for. Upon going public, all those shares they're entitled too (vested) are now priced at the opening bell price: $38. In order to exercise their options, they have to pay the per share price of $38. They won't be able to touch them for x months (ours was six.) If, in six months, the price is above $38, you exercise the options then sell them and make money.

Unfortunately, they could end up like me. At the six month mark, the shares are trading below the strike price. It's then made worse because instead of a bonus, they give you *more* shares at the current price. Which you can't exercise for six months. And the price continues declining.

If, like Zuckerberg or the artist who painted their office, they were given actual shares and not options, then all is good regardless of the price. But, I'm betting the actual working stiffs got options and they are royally screwed.
 
2012-05-21 03:53:57 PM  

PsyLord: How long before there will be a CraigsList ad for trading Facebook stock for a 6 pack of beer?


I have a framed settlement check from worldcom for 7 cents
 
2012-05-21 04:19:09 PM  
xtragrind: It's almost criminal the way the morons touted this IPO. The guy that works at the coffee stand down in the hospital dumped $2500.00 into the IPO and I'm pretty sure this is money that he can't really afford to lose. When I talked to him last week he said he was buying because of all the hipsters running the stories on NPR about how amazing the IPO was going to be... Super nice guy but he just got caught up in the hype.

I think the same folks are now doing stories about how you should wait till it hits $10 - $12. Meanwhile the coffee guy lost his ass.


Name for it in the finance world is dumb money. It's pure profit charging "access and advice" fees and letting people gamble away their investments.

It's been proven over and over that random number generators will give you better investment pics than the likes of people like Jim Cramer. These highly publicized IPO's are just to get brand recognition on stock offerings so that individual buyers wil push stock slightly higher before institutional holders dump it and reap the rewards.

In other words, you;re getting played every which way to Sunday.
 
2012-05-21 04:23:28 PM  

Bungles: In 2015, there will a "social network" identifier that combines your phone number, profiles, bank account, email, geo-location, and all other sundry crap that people have. Everyone will have one.


And it won't be Facebook.


Newsletter?
 
2012-05-21 04:41:41 PM  

Pincy: Bungles: In 2015, there will a "social network" identifier that combines your phone number, profiles, bank account, email, geo-location, and all other sundry crap that people have. Everyone will have one.


And it won't be Facebook.

Newsletter?




I AM FROM THE FUTURE:
 
2012-05-21 05:08:41 PM  

Altitude5280: This for me is this like gawking at a car wreck. I can't stop clicking on all the Facebook stock fail stories. Been delightful to say the least.


Lol I've been the same way all day.
 
2012-05-21 05:20:07 PM  
I will never sell my Fark stock.
 
2012-05-21 05:25:58 PM  
Where's the "Ha Ha" kid?
 
2012-05-21 05:29:57 PM  

TyrantII: It's been proven over and over that random number generators will give you better investment pics than the likes of people like Jim Cramer. T


I used to follow thestreet.com. Cramer had his portfolio posted during the tech boom. When he started getting killed he pulled it from the site. He made money during the bull run when everyone made money. Since then he's made all his money by pretending he was smart instead of lucky by virtue of coming of age on wall street at a time when making money was easy.
 
2012-05-21 06:06:16 PM  
What did it for me was Zuckerberg forcing his board to agree to buy instagram for 1 billion, with absolutely no due dilligence. It appears that just because some nerdy kid can throw together a couple of lines of code does not mean that he can run a huge freaking corporation.

Zuckerberg needs to be removed and surcharged if facebook is to ever rebound.
 
2012-05-21 06:10:30 PM  
1. If you're dumb enough to buy Facebook stock you don't deserve to have money.
2. You're a dumb bastard if you can't see that Wall street is becoming more astute like in the pre-regulation days of the 1920s when banks and financiers would buy some loser stock early, hype the hell out of it, and sell said stock back to the public at a ridiculously inflated price. All of this is well documented, except people apparently don't read nor have an education.
 
2012-05-21 06:58:13 PM  
You know what? I bought a share of Facebook yesterday. I'm okay with my $4 in losses, just so that I can say I own part of Facebook.

I feel bad for people who bought more than one share for the novelty, though.
 
2012-05-21 07:09:54 PM  

halB: What did it for me was Zuckerberg forcing his board to agree to buy instagram for 1 billion, with absolutely no due dilligence. It appears that just because some nerdy kid can throw together a couple of lines of code does not mean that he can run a huge freaking corporation.

Zuckerberg needs to be removed and surcharged if facebook is to ever rebound.


It was very obviously a gift to a friend


It was also very apparent he doesnt give a crap and this is a cash out
 
2012-05-21 07:21:29 PM  

omgwtfbbq!: You know what? I bought a share of Facebook yesterday. I'm okay with my $4 in losses, just so that I can say I own part of Facebook.

I feel bad for people who bought more than one share for the novelty, though.


Where did you buy shares on a Sunday?
 
2012-05-21 07:50:32 PM  
I have a faceook account, but really don't check it anymore.

I think the tipping point for Facebook is coming fast. People have been in the "more friend" and "add groups" phase for some time now and I think the novelty is wearing off. I looked at my HS son's Facebook and he has over 600 "friends".... and he's very much not in a social crowds. I also on my account previously had about 300 "friends" and subscribed to about 10 groups/band pages, etc...

I realized that I really don't have or need 300 friends. Axed all but about 30 of them (by the way there is a handy mozilla script that allows you to do bulk unfriending... the generic Facebook interface only allows you to defined one person at a time. Also cleared out all my profile info.

I think once the novelty of incessant adding friends wears off, people are going to want to pare-down their experience, and will discover Facebook makes this damn hard to do (I can't image how long it would take to remove 500 friends). This is going to make people realize they are being farmed and I think speed up the movement off of Facebook.

Personally I haven't looked at Facebook for over a month... and don't miss it at all.

While there is a lot more they can do to monetize Facebook, everything they do will simply speed the process of people reducing their usage. Its jumped the shark.
 
2012-05-21 08:28:13 PM  
I have some amazing geocities stock that I'd be willing to trade for a Guinness Bar towel. This baby is getting ready to pop!
 
2012-05-21 09:18:12 PM  

Urine The Money: Google's IPO price, $85

Today, $612

Who knows?


Google's P/E = 15
FB's P/E = 57

Yeah, who knows.
 
2012-05-21 10:06:59 PM  

Atomic Spunk: omgwtfbbq!: You know what? I bought a share of Facebook yesterday. I'm okay with my $4 in losses, just so that I can say I own part of Facebook.

I feel bad for people who bought more than one share for the novelty, though.

Where did you buy shares on a Sunday?


thesinglefilez.files.wordpress.com
 
2012-05-21 10:40:33 PM  
pippi longstocking: 1. If you're dumb enough to buy Facebook stock you don't deserve to have money.
2. You're a dumb bastard if you can't see that Wall street is becoming more astute like in the pre-regulation days of the 1920s when banks and financiers would buy some loser stock early, hype the hell out of it, and sell said stock back to the public at a ridiculously inflated price. All of this is well documented, except people apparently don't read nor have an education.


Worse than that. 70% of stocks are now traded electronically on computers.

Remember back in 2009/10 (forgot the year) when one day there was a legitimate crash? They stopped trading, and wall street was scrambling. They called it an error and literally had a do over! They zero'd out all trades that day and said they'd continue looking into the "error". A news dump on a Friday afternoon months later said no error was found and it basically was a legitimate run, and they reversed it. 100% reversed out all the legitimate transactions.

The wrong people lost money that day, and some people that shouldn't have made a killing did from accurately playing the market, so they reversed millions of transactions.

Do over, cause the right people don't lose money.

The market is a joke, and people on wallstreet are playing with fire there too. Shorts, electronic trading accurate to the ms, analyst algorithms, prodding more idiots to put their money in and pump stocks. There's a reason the markets have been more volatile over the past 10 years. Lots of the right people can make money of of volatility .
 
2012-05-21 11:03:41 PM  

TyrantII: Worse than that. 70% of stocks are now traded electronically on computers.

Remember back in 2009/10 (forgot the year) when one day there was a legitimate crash? They stopped trading, and wall street was scrambling. They called it an error and literally had a do over! They zero'd out all trades that day and said they'd continue looking into the "error". A news dump on a Friday afternoon months later said no error was found and it basically was a legitimate run, and they reversed it. 100% reversed out all the legitimate transactions.

The wrong people lost money that day, and some people that shouldn't have made a killing did from accurately playing the market, so they reversed millions of transactions.

Do over, cause the right people don't lose money.

The market is a joke, and people on wallstreet are playing with fire there too. Shorts, electronic trading accurate to the ms, analyst algorithms, prodding more idiots to put their money in and pump stocks. There's a reason the markets have been more volatile over the past 10 years. Lots of the right people can make money of of volatility .


I work in that industry.

Apparently a lot of Olde Tyme traders were overjoyed at the Flash Crash of 2010, hoping all the algo traders would go away. But they didn't.

They they were overjoyed at the BATS disaster (BATS, a stock exchange, shot itself in the foot on the day of its IPO; there was a glitch in their handling of AAPL, so they shut down that particular trade matching engine. Unfortunately, that same trade matching engine handled their own stock, which they listed on their own exchange.)

But market data rates continue to go up and up. Stocks are apparently slowing down a bit, but options are exploding.
 
2012-05-22 09:01:31 AM  

Pumpernickel bread: Urine The Money: Google's IPO price, $85

Today, $612

Who knows?

Google's P/E = 15
FB's P/E = 57

Yeah, who knows.


Even that's too generous. I believe that's the estimated P/E for 12/2012. Current P/E is 109. FB's got plenty more room to fall.
 
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