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(Marketwatch)   Facebook trading a sign of hope for investors   (marketwatch.com) divider line 55
    More: Unlikely, traders  
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2225 clicks; posted to Main » on 18 May 2012 at 8:16 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-05-18 08:17:32 AM
I am deeply concerned.
 
2012-05-18 08:18:36 AM
There are three sides to every story
 
2012-05-18 08:18:43 AM
Sheeple
 
2012-05-18 08:18:58 AM
the beginning of the end for facebook.
 
2012-05-18 08:19:12 AM
Should be a wild ride, I wouldn't want to be the last idiot holding onto the stock today.

I predict a big sell off Monday morning
 
2012-05-18 08:23:47 AM
Well, basically these headlines are saying that the IPO has a lot of red flags for investors and brings high hopes for the trading houses. So, yes, Wall Street will make a lot of money and a lot of small investors will lose a lot of money.
 
2012-05-18 08:23:49 AM
I'd rather invest in mySpace
 
2012-05-18 08:28:39 AM
You guys are a bunch of idiots.

Don't buy Facebook... buy the real internet stock that's got it all..

GROUPON!!!!
 
2012-05-18 08:30:31 AM

ds394: You guys are a bunch of idiots.

Don't buy Facebook... buy the real internet stock that's got it all..

GROUPON!!!!


Are you kidding me? Don't be a fool. The government can seize your Facebook Stock, but they'll never get their hands on my GOLD!!
 
2012-05-18 08:30:51 AM
A few people will make a lot of money...and a lot of people will lose a lot of money.

You know, the usual.
 
2012-05-18 08:31:58 AM

ds394: ds394: You guys are a bunch of idiots.

Don't buy Facebook... buy the real internet stock that's got it all..

GROUPON!!!!

Are you kidding me? Don't be a fool. The government can seize your Facebook Stock, but they'll never get their hands on my GOLD!!


You guys are jerks. Don't take stock advise from them. If you want a safe investment, go with the safest investment around.
 
2012-05-18 08:33:57 AM
It's going to open with a P/E in range of 25-30 when 10-15 is considered average.

If you trade, look at this as bursting bubble. People will buy, realize it's over valued, smart money sells early, crashes value to a bargain $10 as dumb money over corrects, then stabilizes around $20.
 
2012-05-18 08:34:06 AM
On days like today I'm reminded of my professors discussing "rational markets" and I think about asking for my college tuition back. I'd do a present value calculation on it but who knows where the lies stopped. ;)
 
2012-05-18 08:42:32 AM

uselesslogin: Well, basically these headlines are saying that the IPO has a lot of red flags for investors and brings high hopes for the trading houses. So, yes, Wall Street will make a lot of money and a lot of small investors will lose a lot of money.


Exactly. The people who make some money off stock trades are pretty excited.
 
2012-05-18 08:45:39 AM
You know why FaceBook decided to go public now? Because they couldn't figure out their privacy settings either.
 
2012-05-18 08:46:00 AM
Polar opposite articles from the same magazine/site?

Genius!
 
2012-05-18 08:48:03 AM
i47.tinypic.com
 
2012-05-18 08:52:40 AM
www.thefancarpet.com
 
2012-05-18 08:55:37 AM

wildcardjack: It's going to open with a P/E in range of 25-30 when 10-15 is considered average.

If you trade, look at this as bursting bubble. People will buy, realize it's over valued, smart money sells early, crashes value to a bargain $10 as dumb money over corrects, then stabilizes around $20.


A PE of 30? I'll assume you mean a forward PE. So someone is projecting that they will earn $1.26/share? Or over $3B annually? *snork* color me skeptical.

I think there are two reasons to go public. To raise captial to buy/build stuff and to cash out. FB has the resources right now to do whatever they want. This is the latter not the former.
 
2012-05-18 09:10:42 AM

JusticeandIndependence: There are three sides to every story


Are you by any chance a Vorlon?
 
2012-05-18 09:12:20 AM

wildcardjack: It's going to open with a P/E in range of 25-30 when 10-15 is considered average.

If you trade, look at this as bursting bubble. People will buy, realize it's over valued, smart money sells early, crashes value to a bargain $10 as dumb money over corrects, then stabilizes around $20.


The trick is to figure out in advance when Step Two is about to happen.
Don't underestimate the market's stubbornness in remaining irrational for a while. There are a lot of people out there who still kick themselves for missing out on the Google gravy train.
 
2012-05-18 09:22:46 AM
Welp, I have placed my bids for the open and we'll see what happens. I doubt I'll get filled but if you don't try you can't win.

(not kidding, I really have several orders sitting on the exchange right now)
 
2012-05-18 09:41:04 AM

vodka: Welp, I have placed my bids for the open and we'll see what happens. I doubt I'll get filled but if you don't try you can't win.

(not kidding, I really have several orders sitting on the exchange right now)


Calls or puts?

A $40 put sounds golden in the long haul, but I want to wait and see if idiots drive it up today allowing me to buy $50 puts for the same $.
 
2012-05-18 09:43:37 AM

neaorin: There are a lot of people out there who still kick themselves for missing out on the Google gravy train.


I don't think is is similar. Last year Facebook had $3.8 billion in revenue. We don't know how profitable Facebook is because it's a private company. Let's say Facebook's executive team is very good and they have even better margins than Google with 27.5% (Google achieved 25.7% profit margin in 2011). That would mean they earned $1.045 billion in profit which would imply a P/E ratio of 95.7 and a return of only a little over 1% on your investment. The hoodie still has 57% ownership and Goldman Sachs has already cashed out. I'd follow the smart money on this one.

To be fair, the p/e ratio matters little in today's schitzo market but I wouldn't touch this stock unless It was buying puts against it.
 
2012-05-18 09:50:03 AM
Make no mistake. Several people are going to be very, very rich soon.

Get in and out early.

/Hot like a potato
 
2012-05-18 10:03:33 AM
People (correctly) mocked News Corp for buying MySpace for $580 million. Facebook's IPO allows individual investors to make a similar mistake. Yay for the little guy!
 
2012-05-18 10:16:01 AM

Leeds: Calls or puts?

A $40 put sounds golden in the long haul, but I want to wait and see if idiots drive it up today allowing me to buy $50 puts for the same $.


I'm looking to buy but I won't be doing options this early. I like to do riskier stuff in options and without any history of this contract I don't feel comfortable.
 
2012-05-18 10:28:30 AM
Options trading begins May 27th, iirc.
 
2012-05-18 10:41:59 AM

Xlr8urfark: Options trading begins May 27th, iirc.


Sadly by then the stock will probably already be well into its downward slide.

But I'm still hoping to be able to buy some LEAP puts as soon as possible.
 
2012-05-18 10:44:53 AM
When Goldman Sachs decides to dump their stake in a company, it is definitely time to get out.

SELL, MORTIMER, SELL
 
2012-05-18 10:59:00 AM

Elvis_Bogart: A few people will make a lot of money...and a lot of people will lose a lot of money.

You know, the usual.


4.bp.blogspot.com

And 1 billion more will say how they want to spend their money.
 
2012-05-18 10:59:41 AM
The only people guaranteed to make money are the ones sitting on preferred shares right now who will sell at the open. The other people are all the big firms guaranteed to get shares for 38 dollars each. Everyone else is just sitting around the craps table hoping the price goes up after they buy. By the time the shares hit the regular market for regular Joe's I imagine the price will jump from 38 to over 40 minimum.
 
2012-05-18 11:06:06 AM
When are they going to start this biatch up? I keep seeing later and later times.
 
2012-05-18 11:30:29 AM
From an article i read:

Still, some have started laying the groundwork to short Facebook well before trading started.

"I'm doing the legwork now and calling all the brokers," said a hedge fund manager earlier in the week. "Goldman and Credit Suisse are our prime brokers, so I am in contact with them about this."

"This is about as bubbly as you can get," he said. "My mother asked me if she could get Facebook shares and she has never been interested in IPOs before. A cab driver asked me about the IPO too. That's when you want to short it."

The hedge fund manager asked not to be named as he expected to be involved in trading the stock on Friday.


haha. yep. when idiots are buying the stock because it is popular and hyped, it is overpriced and that bubble will burst.
 
2012-05-18 11:31:48 AM

vodka: When are they going to start this biatch up? I keep seeing later and later times.


It's going now
 
2012-05-18 11:33:02 AM
Heh, opened at 42. Adams would be proud.
 
2012-05-18 11:37:50 AM
Of all the bullshiat that goes on in the financial world, an IPO has to be right up there are the top. How the fark is it a public offering when 99% of the population can't get their hands on it at the opening price?
 
2012-05-18 11:38:24 AM

Xlr8urfark: neaorin: There are a lot of people out there who still kick themselves for missing out on the Google gravy train.

I don't think is is similar.


I don't either but a lot of folks out there remember failing to pull the trigger on the Google IPO because they thought it was overvalued, only to watch it go from $100 to $700 in a few years.
I have a feeling quite a few of those people aren't gonna abandon ship until they see a few "bad" quarters in a row, or maybe a "disappointing" dividend.
 
2012-05-18 11:42:05 AM

9beers: Of all the bullshiat that goes on in the financial world, an IPO has to be right up there are the top. How the fark is it a public offering when 99% of the population can't get their hands on it at the opening price?


trading activity changes the price. You can't have a high volume of activity on a stock in the open market without the price changing.
 
2012-05-18 11:55:10 AM
And they're off!

Regular trading just started. Dropped from 42 to 38.
 
2012-05-18 12:15:03 PM
Obama - see? Capitalism doesn't work. Never has.

Congress: Facebook IPO needs a Bailout!

(I have a seer stone, like early Joseph Smith)
 
2012-05-18 01:31:13 PM

SlothB77: trading activity changes the price. You can't have a high volume of activity on a stock in the open market without the price changing.


I don't think you're understanding how an IPO works. The stock price was set at 38 dollars a share. Investment firms, brokerages and some rich farks were allowed to buy the stock at that price. Then the stock hits what they call the secondary market which is when the rest of us have a chance to buy. That demand is what drives the price up.

They basically give the already rich the stock at its base price and they then sell it off for a profit. It's farking bullshiat and should be illegal.
 
2012-05-18 01:58:49 PM
img521.imageshack.us
classic
 
2012-05-18 02:28:55 PM
A little math-

FB has 901 million users.

Idiots who bought the stock have given this company a market cap (total value) of 110.3 Billion dollars.

So according to the bagholders, Facebook is worth $122.42 for EACH user. Or to put it another way, it's worth 3 shares per user.

3 shares per user.

I cannot for the life of me understand why my being on facebook is worth $122 to anyone.
 
2012-05-18 03:21:34 PM

Leeds: A little math-

FB has 901 million users.

Idiots who bought the stock have given this company a market cap (total value) of 110.3 Billion dollars.

So according to the bagholders, Facebook is worth $122.42 for EACH user. Or to put it another way, it's worth 3 shares per user.

3 shares per user.

I cannot for the life of me understand why my being on facebook is worth $122 to anyone.


900 million users? Phhhht. Facebook is a growth story. A better figure to use would be 14 billion users, because that's how many FB will have in 10 years at current growth rates. Now we're down to less than $10 a user.
 
2012-05-18 03:42:57 PM
It just dipped below the IPO price.
 
2012-05-18 05:21:27 PM
No, it never went below 38.
 
2012-05-18 05:24:11 PM

vodka: No, it never went below 38.


Yes it did, I was sitting here watching CNN when they showed it happen.
 
2012-05-18 05:43:59 PM

9beers: Yes it did, I was sitting here watching CNN when they showed it happen.


I don't know what they were showing but I'm looking at the actual prints from the exchange and there was not a single one below 38.
 
2012-05-18 05:45:13 PM

vodka: I don't know what they were showing but I'm looking at the actual prints from the exchange and there was not a single one below 38.


It was only one or two cents below and only for a few seconds.
 
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