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(Marketwatch)   Not even the Avengers can save gold at this point   (marketwatch.com) divider line 49
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5611 clicks; posted to Business » on 14 May 2012 at 5:07 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-05-14 03:01:47 PM
www.gunaxin.com

"Insure yourself against economic downturns"
 
2012-05-14 03:05:35 PM

antidisestablishmentarianism: [www.gunaxin.com image 640x483]

"Insure yourself against economic downturns"


lol. done in one.
 
2012-05-14 03:22:47 PM
what is the reasoning behind gold decreasing because of currency instability?
 
2012-05-14 03:26:04 PM

thomps: what is the reasoning behind gold decreasing because of currency instability?

Gold futures on Monday ended at their lowest since late December amid growing concerns Greece's polical impasse could lead to that country's exit from the euro zone.


Too many liberals planting hippie gardens?
 
2012-05-14 04:37:16 PM

thomps: what is the reasoning behind gold decreasing because of currency instability?


IANA currency-talking-guy, but my assumption would be that instability in the membership of the Euro Zone weakens the euro, thereby making the dollar and other currencies appear more stable to international markets. The better the outlook for the dollar, the less need to live in a bunker surrounded by gold ingots, ammunition and cans of Dinty Moore.
 
2012-05-14 04:53:32 PM
geeksyndicate.files.wordpress.com

Doesn't need saving and is in a totally different universe, anyway. Sheesh.
 
2012-05-14 05:11:11 PM
You don't say?
 
2012-05-14 05:15:20 PM
3.bp.blogspot.com

Some people never learn.
 
2012-05-14 05:17:15 PM

Cagey B: thomps: what is the reasoning behind gold decreasing because of currency instability?

IANA currency-talking-guy, but my assumption would be that instability in the membership of the Euro Zone weakens the euro, thereby making the dollar and other currencies appear more stable to international markets. The better the outlook for the dollar, the less need to live in a bunker surrounded by gold ingots, ammunition and cans of Dinty Moore.


That and its been a short term investment option for severals years that led to it becoming a bubble. The potential investors have been exhausted. When it's being marketed on late night tv and touted by cabbies and Lindsay Lohan, that's a good sign that they've reached the lowest possible investor and they are always the one left holding the potato.
 
2012-05-14 05:24:17 PM

thomps: what is the reasoning behind gold decreasing because of currency instability?


Because people need cause and effect narratives, therefore anything that happens in the financial world is because of teh Greece!1111
 
2012-05-14 05:27:24 PM

InmanRoshi: thomps: what is the reasoning behind gold decreasing because of currency instability?

Because people need cause and effect narratives, therefore anything that happens in the financial world is because of teh Greece!1111


yeah that's kind of what i'm assuming too. i don't see how greece would lead a flight from quality, seems more likely that it's just a sh*tload of profit-taking after a long run-up in price.
 
2012-05-14 05:33:32 PM
Search for "gold" and look at Fark Investing Expert opinion from just 3 months ago. Lulz.
 
2012-05-14 05:35:47 PM
Ya'll are writing gold off too soon. I don't own an ounce of it, and won't because it scares the hell out of me, but this decrease will likely be short lived as QE3 (4?) will see to it that people flee back to gold again. The dollar looks attractive right now, but that is only because the euro is going to hell--lets talk about where things are in 2 or 3 months and see if they don't roll out another round QE.

/hint, they'll roll out another round of QE.
 
2012-05-14 05:36:19 PM

Corporate Self: [3.bp.blogspot.com image 400x300]

Some people never learn.


Yup... I said the same thing about the 'Gold Boom' that I did about the 'Housing Boom'. At some point, the prices are going to plateau, and shortly after they will fall. All the morons who bought gold in the last 3 or 4 years are going to be kicking themselves. I knew it couldn't keep climbing, just like I knew my buddy's house that he bought for $175,000 in 2001 wasn't really worth twice as much 6 months later, no matter what the "market" said. All these people at work were peeing their pants in excitement, and telling me that they had been assured that their house value would only continue to go up. I asked one of them if they would pay the new "value" of their home for that home, and they said 'No'. I looked at him and said 'See, it's not REALLY worth that much.'. We quit talking about house values after that, but I didn't get caught up in a bad mortgage... :-)
 
2012-05-14 05:48:03 PM
I've always wondered why someone would want to sell me something (gold, house, diamonds) if the price was going to skyrocket. If it's such a great deal, almost guaranteeing that it will double, why don't you hold onto it and make the money yourself?
 
GOB
2012-05-14 05:50:27 PM

Sun Worshiping Dog Launcher: Ya'll are writing gold off too soon. I don't own an ounce of it, and won't because it scares the hell out of me, but this decrease will likely be short lived as QE3 (4?) will see to it that people flee back to gold again. The dollar looks attractive right now, but that is only because the euro is going to hell--lets talk about where things are in 2 or 3 months and see if they don't roll out another round QE.

/hint, they'll roll out another round of QE.


You lost me at Ya'll.
 
2012-05-14 06:10:22 PM
Makes sense. People are saying to themselves, "man, I should have bought gold years ago!" not, "man, I should really buy gold now!" Nobody wants to risk being the one holding the bag when the bubble bursts.
 
2012-05-14 06:12:17 PM

cig-mkr: I've always wondered why someone would want to sell me something (gold, house, diamonds) if the price was going to skyrocket. If it's such a great deal, almost guaranteeing that it will double, why don't you hold onto it and make the money yourself?



Because what he person is really buying is a fancy gold certificate that will be mailed to them in a swift 8-12 weeks. Or they use tricks in the fine print to charge a person the price of a troy ounce of gold but only give them a standard ounce. Not to mention they mark it up more than what they can buy it for.

If every person in America was presented with the same question you just asked, the price of gold would crater overnight.
 
2012-05-14 06:21:22 PM

Sgt Otter: Makes sense. People are saying to themselves, "man, I should have bought gold years ago!" not, "man, I should really buy gold now!" Nobody wants to risk being the one holding the bag when the bubble bursts.


Well, no one with even the smallest amount of investor savvy.

People that impulse buy from late night commercials however, or bring their gold plated jewelry to a mall kiosk on the other hand...
 
2012-05-14 06:31:50 PM

oldass31: cig-mkr: I've always wondered why someone would want to sell me something (gold, house, diamonds) if the price was going to skyrocket. If it's such a great deal, almost guaranteeing that it will double, why don't you hold onto it and make the money yourself?


Because what he person is really buying is a fancy gold certificate that will be mailed to them in a swift 8-12 weeks. Or they use tricks in the fine print to charge a person the price of a troy ounce of gold but only give them a standard ounce. Not to mention they mark it up more than what they can buy it for.

If every person in America was presented with the same question you just asked, the price of gold would crater overnight.


Makes one wonder, could there be more certificates out there then there is gold to cover them?
And, if I'm going to buy gold, I don't want a certificate, I want the gold itself dammit.
 
2012-05-14 06:39:28 PM
Since our last gold thread was less than a week ago, I may as well recycle my post:

Sun Worshiping Dog Launcher: FTA:

"The weakness in the paper gold market may continue due to technical selling or investor fatigue ... but this weakness is masking the massive activities going on in the physical gold market, especially among central banks who may be happy at a lower purchase price," said the analysts."

Looks like the pullback may be temporary, especially since there is alot of activity in India and China. Not a gold bug myself, but I suspect the demise of gold is greatly exaggerated. I'll be curious to see what it looks like when QE3 starts.


Yup. China is still buying like crazy. The Chinese are the #1 gold mining country in the world, but they don't export any gold, and their gold imports have increased dramatically - up about 600% in Q1 2012 compared to Q1 in 2011. And it's not just China. "Countries that have a high proportion of their reserves in gold are not likely to sell, while the trend of countries seeking to diversify away from the US dollar into gold is one we expect to continue. It's a theme that has been evident since 2008,"

I wouldn't be completely surprised if the price action over the next month brings the price below $1,500. Gold price has been in an increasingly tighter range over the last several weeks, so the market was due for a breakout followed by some volatility. However, as long as negative real interest rates persist and central banks continue to buy gold, I think the bull market will still continue.
 
2012-05-14 07:47:03 PM

cig-mkr: I've always wondered why someone would want to sell me something (gold, house, diamonds) if the price was going to skyrocket. If it's such a great deal, almost guaranteeing that it will double, why don't you hold onto it and make the money yourself?


Yeah I always get a kick out of some gold pusher telling me that my gummint-fiat-inflation worthless paper money is about good to wipe my ass with - and then offering to trade me some of his precious, precious gold for a wad of it.
 
2012-05-14 07:56:35 PM
cig-mkr: I've always wondered why someone would want to sell me something (gold, house, diamonds) if the price was going to skyrocket. If it's such a great deal, almost guaranteeing that it will double, why don't you hold onto it and make the money yourself

The people selling the gold do not own it. They are salespeople working on commission and often the "gold" is really a future delivery contract that is worthless.
 
2012-05-14 08:06:25 PM
I would buy gold ... if it ever drops to under $600 an ounce. That's about where it should be historically, excluding the various historic bubbles.
 
2012-05-14 08:50:04 PM
FIAT CURRENCY IS A LIE CENA!
 
2012-05-14 09:02:01 PM
I hope it tanks. My class ring was stolen a few years back, and I can't see spending more on a replacement than I would to send my kids through college.
 
2012-05-14 09:14:36 PM
Bought a 1 gram gold bar a couple months ago. Considering I was considering more, I think I'm feeling more smug than I should about the price tanking.

/Didn't buy it as an investment per se.
//Just wanted to say I owned a gold bar.
///~$60? mistake. Whatever.
 
2012-05-14 09:26:24 PM

cig-mkr: I've always wondered why someone would want to sell me something (gold, house, diamonds) if the price was going to skyrocket. If it's such a great deal, almost guaranteeing that it will double, why don't you hold onto it and make the money yourself?


Today's sellers are

1) Miners. They need to pay the bills incurred by mining.
2) Dealers. They buy in bulk at a discount and resell at retail. Like any commodity middleman.
3) Jewelers. They add percevied value above the base metal cost. And again, need to
pay the bills.
4) Traders. They buy/sell based on their assumption they can anticipate market prices.
5) Profit takers. They have reached their target price and are selling to either rebalance a portforlio or reinvest in something else.
6) Government monetary managers. They sell gold believing a lower gold price will serve a greater political/economic purpose.
7) Manipulators. By selling large amounts of gold bought with borrowed money, they believe they can force the price down. This forces other entities who hold gold positions on margin to sell, causing prices to drop even more without investing additional cash on their part. Then after the price falls, they buy back the positions at a profit. (aka Trading Places and "Sell, Mortimer, Sell")

Now, JP Morgan just figured out they lost about 2B, and they are well known for short selling vast amounts of gold future contracts to manipulate the price down and then buy back at a profit after the price tanks ...

And they can borrow unlimited amounts of money from the Fed at essentially zero percent interest to finance the scheme.

So, still suprised gold dropped today?
 
2012-05-14 10:36:32 PM
Hmm, down about 25% since February. It's a burst bubble, but it's slow because people are now thinking $1500 is a good price and it'll go back to $2000.

Gold should be about $800, if you subtract any over enthusiasm from the market. It'll over correct downward and be a bargain around $400-$600 before normalizing at around $800.

Precious metal commodities might be a good hedge against long term inflation if purchased at good prices. But it won't earn compounding interest.
 
2012-05-14 10:54:35 PM

wildcardjack: Hmm, down about 25% since February. It's a burst bubble, but it's slow because people are now thinking $1500 is a good price and it'll go back to $2000.

Gold should be about $800, if you subtract any over enthusiasm from the market. It'll over correct downward and be a bargain around $400-$600 before normalizing at around $800.

.

Gold "should be . . . x" . Hilarious. You should be on CNBC telling people what they should do with their money.
 
2012-05-14 11:33:02 PM

Watching_Epoxy_Cure: wildcardjack: Hmm, down about 25% since February. It's a burst bubble, but it's slow because people are now thinking $1500 is a good price and it'll go back to $2000.

Gold should be about $800, if you subtract any over enthusiasm from the market. It'll over correct downward and be a bargain around $400-$600 before normalizing at around $800.

.
Gold "should be . . . x" . Hilarious. You should be on CNBC telling people what they should do with their money.


What a stupidly smug thing to say.
 
2012-05-14 11:48:25 PM

wildcardjack: Hmm, down about 25% since February. It's a burst bubble, but it's slow because people are now thinking $1500 is a good price and it'll go back to $2000.

Gold should be about $800, if you subtract any over enthusiasm from the market. It'll over correct downward and be a bargain around $400-$600 before normalizing at around $800.

Precious metal commodities might be a good hedge against long term inflation if purchased at good prices. But it won't earn compounding interest.


Hmmm. Check out the return on a 6mo treasury after taxes and cpi inflation Then include that pesky food and fuel inflation that is 'too volatile' for the feds to include that I pay at the pump/store in ever increasing quantities. How's that compounding working out in your favor?

Here's the thing. Gold doesn't create a tax event until it is sold. Which means a buy and hold investor gets to compound growth tax free until it's is sold. Whereas a bond investor must pay tax each year on interest paid thus reducing the overall position and thus negating the compounding effects.

And with 6 month cd rates at .76%, just how much money are you making on your compounded interest?

I'll take a buy and hold gold position unreported to the government, and non taxable until it's sold over a 6mo/.76% yearly taxable treasury position any day.

I can ride out gold market gyrations. The deficit spending, QE monetary policy, collapsing tax base, and overall debt failure that has driven the gold price up in the last ten years are all still in place. So the upward trend will continue. When the Fed stop monetizing 60%+ of the federal debt, tax revenues recover, real wages rise, and overall unemployment reverses, then gold might correct.
 
2012-05-14 11:52:09 PM

Watching_Epoxy_Cure: .
Gold "should be . . . x" . Hilarious. You should be on CNBC telling people what they should do with their money.


No, not really. Anyone with a decent amount of sense can look at the historical data and work out what a commodity should be at and if it is over-valued.

I've come to pretty much the same conclusion (that gold should be at about $800/ounce) and I pay no attention to investment pundits. We've been in a bubble for a while and anyone who said different was either lying or an idiot.

/sold the bulk of my gold last year at $1500-1800/ounce.
//Grandma bought it during the Hunt Bros bubble in 1980 and paid $400/ounce.
 
2012-05-14 11:56:26 PM

realityVSperception: I can ride out gold market gyrations. The deficit spending, QE monetary policy, collapsing tax base, and overall debt failure that has driven the gold price up in the last ten years are all still in place. So the upward trend will continue. When the Fed stop monetizing 60%+ of the federal debt, tax revenues recover, real wages rise, and overall unemployment reverses, then gold might correct.


So, really, you're holding gold because you're a wingnut who doens't understand how the fincancial system actually works, and you're just looking for a rational justification for your wing-nuttery.

Got it.
 
2012-05-15 12:00:06 AM

LarryDan43: Cagey B: thomps: what is the reasoning behind gold decreasing because of currency instability?

IANA currency-talking-guy, but my assumption would be that instability in the membership of the Euro Zone weakens the euro, thereby making the dollar and other currencies appear more stable to international markets. The better the outlook for the dollar, the less need to live in a bunker surrounded by gold ingots, ammunition and cans of Dinty Moore.

That and its been a short term investment option for severals years that led to it becoming a bubble. The potential investors have been exhausted. When it's being marketed on late night tv and touted by cabbies and Lindsay Lohan, that's a good sign that they've reached the lowest possible investor and they are always the one left holding the potato.


The price of gold over the last 10 years has not been driven by private investors. It's been driven by national banks (primarily India and China) buying by the 100s of tons. They are buying to keep, not to speculate. They have also stated that they will be buying more in the dips. There will be no gold crash.
 
2012-05-15 12:10:44 AM

Dwight_Yeast: realityVSperception: I can ride out gold market gyrations. The deficit spending, QE monetary policy, collapsing tax base, and overall debt failure that has driven the gold price up in the last ten years are all still in place. So the upward trend will continue. When the Fed stop monetizing 60%+ of the federal debt, tax revenues recover, real wages rise, and overall unemployment reverses, then gold might correct.

So, really, you're holding gold because you're a wingnut who doens't understand how the fincancial system actually works, and you're just looking for a rational justification for your wing-nuttery.

Got it.


He has a point. I'll be curious to see what gold does when there is no longer a threat of QE out there and unemployment lowers.
 
2012-05-15 12:33:29 AM

DrPainMD: There will be no gold crash.


Given that a man on the internet said it, it must be true!

/Get me Glenn Beck on the phone!
//I'm putting it all into Krugerands!
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
//Farking gold bugs
 
2012-05-15 12:43:33 AM
LOL! I remember people in Dubai were buying gold out of a vending machine only about a year ago. No idea why. Is there really a need at 3AM to grab a bar of 14 carat?
 
2012-05-15 01:49:03 AM
I know greek guys wear a lot of Jewlery .. but DAMN!.....enough to rock the world gold market? thats nuts!
 
2012-05-15 02:32:24 AM

Dwight_Yeast: realityVSperception: I can ride out gold market gyrations. The deficit spending, QE monetary policy, collapsing tax base, and overall debt failure that has driven the gold price up in the last ten years are all still in place. So the upward trend will continue. When the Fed stop monetizing 60%+ of the federal debt, tax revenues recover, real wages rise, and overall unemployment reverses, then gold might correct.

So, really, you're holding gold because you're a wingnut who doens't understand how the fincancial system actually works, and you're just looking for a rational justification for your wing-nuttery.

Got it.


Where did you get that from? My point is that the same basic economic trends that have weakened the dollar and bolstered gold are still n place. Specifically

US local/state/federal deficit spending - 1.5 to 2 trillion per year over the next two years

http://www.usgovernmentspending.com

Federal reserve monitization of debit (currently 61%)

WSJ: Fed Buying 61 Percent of US Debt
http://www.moneynews.com/Headline/fed-debt-Treasury/2012/03/28/id/434 1 06

Collapse of the dollar as a reserve currency

Link

"Various countries have been buying gold. Russia, China, India have all bought a lot....Which brings me to my speculation. The list of countries accumulating gold is similar to the list of countries that were reported to be talking about the need for a new reserve currency to replace the dollar.

I wonder if those who are seriously thinking of trying to unseat the dollar and create a currency which is backed by something other than debt and is not under the control of America's corrupt banks and even more corrupt government, are investing in gold as a precursor to making a real bid for a new currency.

"


Zero interest policy from the fed for at least the next 2 years.

http://www.bankrate.com/rates/interest-rates/federal-discount-rate.as p x


Which part of that is wing-nuttery, and what is fact?

The US is running huge deficits financed by the fed monetizing debt. Central banks world wide are dumping dollars for physical gold. Dollar denominated debit returns next to nothing after inflation and taxes. Gold is simply reasserting itself as a store of value.
 
2012-05-15 03:28:23 AM

wildcardjack: compounding interest.




I loled
 
2012-05-15 03:54:45 AM

Dwight_Yeast: DrPainMD: There will be no gold crash.

Given that a man on the internet said it, it must be true!

/Get me Glenn Beck on the phone!
//I'm putting it all into Krugerands!


Do you really think Glenn Beck drives the world gold market?

Cause Goldline got electrocuted in court

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/goldline-agrees-refund-millions-custome r s/story?id=15768897

Apparently someone as smart as you can't figure out that a rip-me-off outfit like gold line who sells a few huned ounces drives the gold market over china who buys a few hundered TONS a year.

Like Glenn Beck has anything to do with real world gold supply/demand numbers or like you have a clue-

www.gold.org

When you grasp the fact that gold trends are driven by tons bought/sold not ounces, then maybe you'll understand this market.
 
2012-05-15 06:07:08 AM

realityVSperception: I can ride out gold market gyrations


Till someone steals your gold.
 
2012-05-15 06:10:15 AM
2 more years of high prices please. I'm just getting my dredge built and researching/completing all the red tape to start prospecting.
 
2012-05-15 06:31:15 AM

doglover: realityVSperception: I can ride out gold market gyrations

Till someone steals your gold.



Nobody can steal my gold. I've hidden half of it in a cast iron pot at the end of a rainbow and the other half on the sandy beach of a Caribbean island.
 
2012-05-15 06:44:29 AM

Cagey B: thomps: what is the reasoning behind gold decreasing because of currency instability?

IANA currency-talking-guy, but my assumption would be that instability in the membership of the Euro Zone weakens the euro, thereby making the dollar and other currencies appear more stable to international markets. The better the outlook for the dollar, the less need to live in a bunker surrounded by gold ingots, ammunition and cans of Dinty Moore.


so GOLD didnt go DOWN in value, the dollar went up.
 
2012-05-15 06:50:05 AM

Dwight_Yeast: Watching_Epoxy_Cure: .
Gold "should be . . . x" . Hilarious. You should be on CNBC telling people what they should do with their money.

No, not really. Anyone with a decent amount of sense can look at the historical data and work out what a commodity should be at and if it is over-valued.


Wrong.
You cannot predict the future price of any stock or commodity - especially by looking at charts.
If that were possible, the system would collapse.

You can not predict the future. Watch CNBC or Yahoo finance, you'll see opposing views all the time. Fark shows this all the time with a "Gold will hit $3000" article next to a "Gold will hit $400" one - both with confident "experts" .

You can probably assume a general upward trend in the S&P over a long period of time, but there is no way anyone can reliably do better than that.
 
2012-05-15 08:32:35 AM
Gold crashing is clearly the result of Fartbongo supporting gay marriage.
 
2012-05-15 09:31:52 AM

realityVSperception: Today's sellers are

1) Miners. They need to pay the bills incurred by mining.
2) Dealers. They buy in bulk at a discount and resell at retail. Like any commodity middleman.
3) Jewelers. They add percevied value above the base metal cost. And again, need to
pay the bills.
4) Traders. They buy/sell based on their assumption they can anticipate market prices.
5) Profit takers. They have reached their target price and are selling to either rebalance a portforlio or reinvest in something else.
6) Government monetary managers. They sell gold believing a lower gold price will serve a greater political/economic purpose.
7) Manipulators. By selling large amounts of gold bought with borrowed money, they believe they can force the price down. This forces other entities who hold gold positions on margin to sell, causing prices to drop even more without investing additional cash on their part. Then after the price falls, they buy back the positions at a profit. (aka Trading Places and "Sell, Mortimer, Sell")


Me. My grandma bought me a krugrrand back in the 80s, and I need the money right now. Yeah, I know it would have been worth a lot more 3 months ago, but it's still way over valued, so I'll get over it.
 
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