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(Business Insider)   Latest electoral college map puts Obama at 290 and Romney at 161, with 87 toss ups, meaning Obama wins even if Romney wins all toss ups. Fark: This map comes directly from Karl Rove's website   (businessinsider.com) divider line 232
    More: Obvious, electoral college, Karl Rove, swing states, Governor of Michigan, interracial marriages, water coolers, George W. Romney, Mitt Romney  
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5279 clicks; posted to Politics » on 13 May 2012 at 3:54 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-05-14 08:58:26 AM  
Hod do I panicked Romney supporter fundraising?

Colorado and Ohio are not "lean Obama." They're both tossups, which puts Obama under 270
 
2012-05-14 08:58:42 AM  

Lupine Chemist: Angry Hatter: FTA: Interesting: If Romney wins all the toss-ups and Pennsylvania, it's a 270-270 tie.

Umm, no it isn't. 270+270=540. Where'd they get the extra two electoral votes from?

This map shows GOP needs a handicap.


billstclair.com
 
2012-05-14 09:29:52 AM  

TomD9938: firefly212: TomD9938: DarnoKonrad: TomD9938: Some of the Presidents own supporters come off as wanting him to be martyred... and it's damn creepy.

I'm sure some do. Not that your anecdote constitutes a trend.

Tiny number, yes.

/anyone know what Fark flood protection is BTW?
//wasnt allowed to post right away and was given that as the reason.

I can make really fun generalizations about things just by using the word "some."

Some Romney supporters are emo kids who just want to vote to cut themselves.
Some Obama supporters are white supremacists just hoping he fails so they never have to see a black president again.
Some Ron Paul supporters believe they are androids, devoid of emotions.

Tiny numbers, I'm sure... but the points really needed to be brought up.

You'll note that I didnt use the word, "some".


lh6.ggpht.com
 
2012-05-14 09:34:40 AM  

Relatively Obscure: This shiat isn't until November, goddamnit.


That is a fair comment. Just wonder how much longer this comment will remain valid for. July? August? By August, the Right will be praying for an October surprise and/or trying to cause one.
 
2012-05-14 09:41:10 AM  

make me some tea: The election is still 6 months away...


Not quite 6 full months anymore.

/just saying
 
2012-05-14 10:11:02 AM  

jso2897: It will get better when we Boomers die. You have been sold a bill of goods. You have seen all the newsreels of hippies dancing naked, and been convinced that that was the Boomers when we were young, and then we sold out.
No.
The hippies, and protestors, and war resistors, and people of conscience were never more than about 15% of our generation. The Boomers you are dealing with now are the cowards and conformists who always followed orders - and now, they are out for revenge. How do you think a certified retard like Ronald Reagan ever became President?
Thankfully, we are dying soon - but the 85% of us who are nasty, repressed losers are going to hurt this country as much as they can before they die.
And cutting social security or some shiat will only hurt the innocent. Y'all youngsters need to start VOTING. NOW.



Yeah, it's pretty amazing the difference between perception and reality on the Boomers. Boomers grew up at a time when America really was still fairly rural, and things like a non segregated society was still a novelty. People don't realize that for every kid spinning around in a circle on Haight/Ashbury in 69, there were 30 others in Nebraska or Kansas who hated them and everything they represented.
 
2012-05-14 10:14:55 AM  
 
2012-05-14 10:18:59 AM  
If any Farkers out there think Romney has a greater than 3 in 7 chance of wining, place your bets on Intrade right now so you can make a tidy profit.
 
2012-05-14 10:20:09 AM  

Somacandra: Aarontology: Well, 291-171 cause Nebraska does that EC vote split thing.

I understand that Nebraska's unicameral had "fixed" that so that all their EC will go red.


Do you have a link? I found a couple links saying the attempt to make that change failed.

Link
Link
 
2012-05-14 10:21:45 AM  

cicdle: Any map that even hints at SC being a toss up is lying.


It's a longest of long shots, but in 2008 Obama lost SC by the same amount that he won "tossup" Colorado. The demographics of the state are changing, as they are in all the Atlantic South, and Romney was rather thoroughly rejected in the state by the GOP base in the primary. Romney still probably wins, but it's not going to be by more than 5 or 6 points.
 
2012-05-14 10:27:05 AM  

Mentat: RexTalionis: Karl Rove's got a reason to overstate Obama's chances.

Nothing gets your opponent's vote to go down like complacency in their supporters. Nothing gets your people's vote up like making them terrified that the other side will win.

Of course, that can backfire when The Math disillusions your own supporters. Karl Rove isn't nearly as smart as he thinks he is.


As far as I can tell, his map is made merely by averaging public polls taken in each state in the last 30 days. In theory, it that means it isn't manipulated one way or the other.
 
2012-05-14 10:33:52 AM  

Nadie_AZ: Frankly, I don't give a sh*t. It's May. Who cares?

At least it is May 2012. That's better than 2011*.

/*warning, freeper link


Almost makes me wonder if this was put out so early by Romney-friendly parties in an attempt to encourage Obama supporters to stay home thinking the election is already "in the bag", kind of a combination of what happened in 2000 and the off year election of 2010 (when a lot of Tea party people picked up seats many thought that more mainstream candidates would retain).
 
2012-05-14 10:38:09 AM  

Philbb: RexTalionis: Karl Rove's got a reason to overstate Obama's chances.

Nothing gets your opponent's vote to go down like complacency in their supporters. Nothing gets your people's vote up like making them terrified that the other side will win.

This is one of my biggest concerns in 2012. In 2008 the left was fired up. Many of them really saw Obama as a liberal and expected great things from him. After he was elected and people started to realize that he was just another centrist they became disillusioned; some even felt betrayed.

Obama has accomplished quite a bit as POTUS. But he has compromised and backtracked too far according to some liberals. He's lack of backbone and his willingness to bend over backwards to try to get some kind of bipartisan work done, no matter how often the opposition pisses in the sandbox, has some on the left deciding that he's not worth voting for this time around. Whether they stay home or vote third party doesn't really matter much.

For some reason many in the right fringe and many in the left fringe bought into the idea that Obama was a real liberal. Those on the right are frightened because they still believe that. Those on the left are bummed because they now know they were wrong.


Meanwhile, the turnout for the GOP during the primary was utterly horrendous, and they elected a wet blanket candidate who has absolutely nothing to sell people other than negativity and anti-other guy. I don't foresee any side having a significant advantage in base enthusiasm.
 
2012-05-14 10:57:33 AM  
yep, i've said from the beginning that Obama will be a two term President. let's hope our Republican friends can stomach it and are able to wait until at least 2016 to get one of their little turds in office.
 
2012-05-14 11:16:08 AM  
Well there are still 6 months till election time.
 
2012-05-14 11:18:24 AM  

RexTalionis: Karl Rove's got a reason to overstate Obama's chances.

Nothing gets your opponent's vote to go down like complacency in their supporters. Nothing gets your people's vote up like making them terrified that the other side will win.

Ed Finnerty: I will laugh mightily if Obama take Arizona.


Obama has 0% chance of winning Arizona. The Obama administration has very effectively pi$$ed off about 2/3 of the population of AZ.
 
2012-05-14 11:32:49 AM  

Oldiron_79: Well there are still 6 months till election time.

5 months and change technically.
 
2012-05-14 11:36:00 AM  

pxsteel: RexTalionis: Karl Rove's got a reason to overstate Obama's chances.

Nothing gets your opponent's vote to go down like complacency in their supporters. Nothing gets your people's vote up like making them terrified that the other side will win.

Ed Finnerty: I will laugh mightily if Obama take Arizona.

Obama has 0% chance of winning Arizona. The Obama administration has very effectively pi$$ed off about 2/3 of the population of AZ.


My go-to aggregator has Romney up by an exceedingly slim margin: Link
 
2012-05-14 11:47:08 AM  

qorkfiend: pxsteel: RexTalionis: Karl Rove's got a reason to overstate Obama's chances.

Nothing gets your opponent's vote to go down like complacency in their supporters. Nothing gets your people's vote up like making them terrified that the other side will win.

Ed Finnerty: I will laugh mightily if Obama take Arizona.

Obama has 0% chance of winning Arizona. The Obama administration has very effectively pi$$ed off about 2/3 of the population of AZ.

My go-to aggregator has Romney up by an exceedingly slim margin: Link


Polling AZ this time of year is useless and gives you a very false reading. The snowbirds are not here this time of year and they vote 75%+ republican
 
2012-05-14 11:50:03 AM  

pxsteel: qorkfiend: pxsteel: RexTalionis: Karl Rove's got a reason to overstate Obama's chances.

Nothing gets your opponent's vote to go down like complacency in their supporters. Nothing gets your people's vote up like making them terrified that the other side will win.

Ed Finnerty: I will laugh mightily if Obama take Arizona.

Obama has 0% chance of winning Arizona. The Obama administration has very effectively pi$$ed off about 2/3 of the population of AZ.

My go-to aggregator has Romney up by an exceedingly slim margin: Link

Polling AZ this time of year is useless and gives you a very false reading. The snowbirds are not here this time of year and they vote 75%+ republican


A fair point.
 
2012-05-14 11:52:25 AM  

bugontherug: The Republicans will benefit from a low turnout election, because invariably the people who don't turn out are progressive young voters. Conservatives Old people trudge their asses to the polls year after year. And they vote Republican, even when they're not enthusiastic about their candidate. That is why the right is winning in this country.


FTFY
 
2012-05-14 12:17:03 PM  

InmanRoshi: I think Taibbi sums up my feelings on this election ... Most Boring Election Evah!!111


The people who work for the wire services and the news networks are physically incapable of writing sentences like, "This election is even more over than the Knicks-Heat series." They are required, if not by law then by neurological reflex, to describe every presidential campaign as "fierce" and "drawn-out" and "hotly-contested."

But this campaign, relatively speaking, will not be fierce or hotly contested. Instead it'll be disappointing, embarrassing, and over very quickly, like a hand job in a Bangkok bathhouse. And everybody knows it. It's just impossible to take Mitt Romney seriously as a presidential candidate. Even the news reporters who are paid to drum up dramatic undertones are having a hard time selling Romney as half of a titanic title bout.

Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/is-this-the-most-b oring-election-ever-20120507#ixzz1uqy8903D


I dunno... I bet '84 was really boring. The most drama there was whether Reagan would pull off a clean sweep.

I mean, sure, this election probably will be boring, but '84 would be very hard to beat.
 
2012-05-14 12:17:06 PM  

pxsteel: qorkfiend: pxsteel: RexTalionis: Karl Rove's got a reason to overstate Obama's chances.

Nothing gets your opponent's vote to go down like complacency in their supporters. Nothing gets your people's vote up like making them terrified that the other side will win.

Ed Finnerty: I will laugh mightily if Obama take Arizona.

Obama has 0% chance of winning Arizona. The Obama administration has very effectively pi$$ed off about 2/3 of the population of AZ.

My go-to aggregator has Romney up by an exceedingly slim margin: Link

Polling AZ this time of year is useless and gives you a very false reading. The snowbirds are not here this time of year and they vote 75%+ republican


Wouldn't snowbirds be resident someplace other than Arizona so not be able to vote in Arizona anyways? My in-laws are Arizona snowboards (from Canada).
 
2012-05-14 12:29:20 PM  

mrshowrules: pxsteel: qorkfiend: pxsteel: RexTalionis: Karl Rove's got a reason to overstate Obama's chances.

Nothing gets your opponent's vote to go down like complacency in their supporters. Nothing gets your people's vote up like making them terrified that the other side will win.

Ed Finnerty: I will laugh mightily if Obama take Arizona.

Obama has 0% chance of winning Arizona. The Obama administration has very effectively pi$$ed off about 2/3 of the population of AZ.

My go-to aggregator has Romney up by an exceedingly slim margin: Link

Polling AZ this time of year is useless and gives you a very false reading. The snowbirds are not here this time of year and they vote 75%+ republican

Wouldn't snowbirds be resident someplace other than Arizona so not be able to vote in Arizona anyways? My in-laws are Arizona snowboards (from Canada).


I guess the difference would arise in the polling methodology; if you're doing polling specific to Arizona you're probably calling phones that are physically in Arizona. Someone also mentioned (no idea if it was this thread or another) that the AZ residency requirement for voting is 6 months, and most snowbirds will get that.
 
2012-05-14 12:29:30 PM  

mrshowrules: pxsteel: qorkfiend: pxsteel: RexTalionis: Karl Rove's got a reason to overstate Obama's chances.

Nothing gets your opponent's vote to go down like complacency in their supporters. Nothing gets your people's vote up like making them terrified that the other side will win.

Ed Finnerty: I will laugh mightily if Obama take Arizona.

Obama has 0% chance of winning Arizona. The Obama administration has very effectively pi$$ed off about 2/3 of the population of AZ.

My go-to aggregator has Romney up by an exceedingly slim margin: Link

Polling AZ this time of year is useless and gives you a very false reading. The snowbirds are not here this time of year and they vote 75%+ republican

Wouldn't snowbirds be resident someplace other than Arizona so not be able to vote in Arizona anyways? My in-laws are Arizona snowboards (from Canada).


The mass majority of AZ 'snowbirds' are Arizona residents that travel north to avoid the heat.
 
2012-05-14 01:43:56 PM  
I assume he's trying to paint the picture worse than he actually believes it is in order to drum up additional support, but it could easily do the exact opposite. There are millions of conservatives who don't think much of Romney to begin with - given his his slim chances of winning depicted in this map, why would they want to throw good money after bad?
 
2012-05-14 01:57:10 PM  

HeartBurnKid: I dunno... I bet '84 was really boring. The most drama there was whether Reagan would pull off a clean sweep.


1984 is probably a pretty good comparison. Reagan didn't have a good 1983, his approval rating dropping down to 43%, and just maintained a slight advantage from January-August in 1984. For most of his 1984 his approval rating was in the low 50s. In the final months leading up to the election he pulled away from Mondale as people came to terms with the fact that they generally liked Reagan, despite an imperfect economy, and Mondale was uninspiring to say the least. I predict the same trend happening this year, without the crazy margins of victory given the polarization of the country and the deterioration of the moderate middle. Getting 350 EVs is the equivalent of a landslide Presidential re-election today for anyone of either party.


It's a good thing for Obama that his approval ratings have held steady to slightly trending up as we get later into the year. This is the common pattern for Clinton in 96 and Reagan in 84. What you don't want is Jimmy Carter who's approval rating plummeted from 54% to 41% between February and March in 1980. Crazy month to month volatility isn't good, because it shows the public isn't sold on you and doesn't trust you.
 
2012-05-14 02:37:34 PM  

ShawnDoc: But Rasmussen and Gallop say Romney has the lead!


The funny part is they can both be correct. US Presidential elections - you so crazy!
 
2012-05-14 03:27:17 PM  

InmanRoshi: HeartBurnKid: I dunno... I bet '84 was really boring. The most drama there was whether Reagan would pull off a clean sweep.

1984 is probably a pretty good comparison. Reagan didn't have a good 1983, his approval rating dropping down to 43%, and just maintained a slight advantage from January-August in 1984. For most of his 1984 his approval rating was in the low 50s. In the final months leading up to the election he pulled away from Mondale as people came to terms with the fact that they generally liked Reagan, despite an imperfect economy, and Mondale was uninspiring to say the least. I predict the same trend happening this year, without the crazy margins of victory given the polarization of the country and the deterioration of the moderate middle. Getting 350 EVs is the equivalent of a landslide Presidential re-election today for anyone of either party.


It's a good thing for Obama that his approval ratings have held steady to slightly trending up as we get later into the year. This is the common pattern for Clinton in 96 and Reagan in 84. What you don't want is Jimmy Carter who's approval rating plummeted from 54% to 41% between February and March in 1980. Crazy month to month volatility isn't good, because it shows the public isn't sold on you and doesn't trust you.



In 1984 the economy was visably improving. Unemployment was dropping like a stone and it was companies actually hiring not 500,000 left the workforce. Obama nees this to be a blockbuster summer, economy wise, or he could be in some real trouble come October, November.
 
2012-05-14 04:43:54 PM  

InmanRoshi: Meanwhile, the turnout for the GOP during the primary was utterly horrendous, and they elected a wet blanket candidate who has absolutely nothing to sell people other than negativity and anti-other guy. I don't foresee any side having a significant advantage in base enthusiasm.


I hope you're right. I know it's too early to be overly concerned about it. But I keep hearing from and about liberals that simply don't support Obama any longer. Even worse, I understand what they mean. I guess it doesn't bother me as much because my expectations weren't as high as theirs.
 
2012-05-14 04:58:52 PM  

pxsteel: In 1984 the economy was visably improving. Unemployment was dropping like a stone and it was companies actually hiring not 500,000 left the workforce. Obama nees this to be a blockbuster summer, economy wise, or he could be in some real trouble come October, November.


You sound concerned.

People gave Reagan a pass on the economy because they blamed the previous administration for the mess, just they do with Bush. Obama would be more vulnerable if the Republicans were offering any more credible economic solutions than Bush's policies on steroids, but they're not and he isn't.



Obama just needs to maintain status quo without any real meltdowns. The private sector today is hiring better than the rate it was in 1984. The difference is in 1984 we weren't laying off a large segment of the goverment workforce under the guise of austerity. Without the public sector layoffs our unemployment rate (7.1) would be well above what Reagan was re-elected with in 1984 (7.6).
 
2012-05-15 02:01:44 PM  
mrshowrules: Oldiron_79: Well there are still 6 months till election time.
5 months and change technically.


Well pardon me for not giving a Rainmanesque exact Months days hours minutes seconds breakdown
 
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