Well, 291-171 cause Nebraska does that EC vote split thing.

Err 161.

Frankly, I don't give a sh*t. It's May. Who cares?

At least it is May 2012. That's better than 2011*.

_{/*warning, freeper link}

Ed Finnerty: I will laugh mightily if Obama take Arizona.

Even funnier: If he takes South Carolina, too.

Also, look at those percentages. Obama has almost as much chance of taking Texas as Romney does of taking Pennsylvania.

Ed Finnerty: I will laugh mightily if Obama take Arizona.

I will laugh mightily if wings take dream.

Way too early to be caring about these maps.

DamnYankees: Way too early to be caring about these maps.

You are probably right because generally speaking, the results of the elections are out of the candidates hands. That said, assuming no exogenous effects between now and November (a big assumption of course with the mess in Europe), this polling foretells a lot, namely that people just don't like Romney.

Obviously, Rove is revealing himself to be a RINO.

BritneysSpeculum: DamnYankees: Way too early to be caring about these maps.

You are probably right because generally speaking, the results of the elections are out of the candidates hands. That said, assuming no exogenous effects between now and November (a big assumption of course with the mess in Europe), this polling foretells a lot, namely that people just don't like Romney.

This is true - I don't mean polling in general doesn't matter. I mean the state by state stuff really doesn't. For example, take North Carolina - it's not a relevant state to the election. If Obama wins it, it means he's won the election in a landslide - there's no scenario where the President wins NC and loses the electoral college. If he loses NC though, it doesn't tell us anything at all. He might win and he might lose.

Really the only states that matter in terms of really telling us his chances of winning are FL, OH and VA. And its just too early to know with regard to specific swing states.

This shiat isn't until November, goddamnit.

Let's hope it works out that way.

Aarontology: Well, 291-171 cause Nebraska does that EC vote split thing.

I understand that Nebraska's unicameral had "fixed" that so that all their EC will go red.

Karl Rove's got a reason to overstate Obama's chances.

Nothing gets your opponent's vote to go down like complacency in their supporters. Nothing gets your people's vote up like making them terrified that the other side will win.

The election is still 6 months away...

Interesting that WI is a solid blue state. Huh. I wonder why?

RexTalionis: Karl Rove's got a reason to overstate Obama's chances.

Nothing gets your opponent's vote to go down like complacency in their supporters. Nothing gets your people's vote up like making them terrified that the other side will win.

Of course, that can backfire when The Math disillusions your own supporters. Karl Rove isn't nearly as smart as he thinks he is.

make me some tea: Interesting that WI is a solid blue state. Huh. I wonder why?

Maybe because it hasn't voted for a Republican for President since 1984.

make me some tea: The election is still 6 months away...

The election was over 6 months ago. All we're seeing now is the headless GOP chicken squawking. The only think that could cause Obama to lost would be to be caught in bed with a live man or dead woman. And I'm not even sure the live man would do him in.

Relatively Obscure: This shiat isn't until November, goddamnit.

Hell, it doesn't even start until August.

But every four years its the same thing. We can't help ourselves.

Man On A Mission: make me some tea: The election is still 6 months away...

The election was over 6 months ago. All we're seeing now is the headless GOP chicken squawking. The only think that could cause Obama to lost would be to be caught in bed with a live man or dead woman. And I'm not even sure the live man would do him in.

hu·bris [hyoo-bris, hoo-] Show IPA
noun
excessive pride or self-confidence; arrogance.

Somacandra: Aarontology: Well, 291-171 cause Nebraska does that EC vote split thing.

I understand that Nebraska's unicameral had "fixed" that so that all their EC will go red.

Ahh. It was an interesting experiment while it lasted.

gilgigamesh: hu·bris [hyoo-bris, hoo-] Show IPA
noun
excessive pride or self-confidence; arrogance.

For examples, see Romney, Mitt | Paul, Ron | Gingrich, Newt | Bachman, Michelle | Perry, Rick

The word you're looking for to describe Obama is "realistic". I know that's hard to understand for the average GOP supporter, but when Karl Rove's own map is showing how next-to-impossible it is for the GOP to take the White House, there comes a point when denying the obvious is just utter self-delusion.

DamnYankees: make me some tea: Interesting that WI is a solid blue state. Huh. I wonder why?

Maybe because it hasn't voted for a Republican for President since 1984.

Well, considering they had put in such a far right governor, I guess I figured they'd be a little less blue. It's interesting.

Man On A Mission: there comes a point when denying the obvious is just utter self-delusion.

For an Obama supporter, that moment should probably be delayed until fairly soon after the actual polls close. Early to bed, early to rise, work like hell and organize.

Man On A Mission: The word you're looking for to describe Obama is "realistic". I know that's hard to understand for the average GOP supporter, but when Karl Rove's own map is showing how next-to-impossible it is for the GOP to take the White House, there comes a point when denying the obvious is just utter self-delusion.

And Lord knows, no one can ever accuse Karl "Honest Injun" Rove of duplicity or a hidden motive.

Even if its above the board, which I doubt, the fact is that the vast majority of the country hasn't even started thinking about the election yet. 80% of the electorate, if they vote, will vote party line regardless of circumstance or candidate. The remaining 20% is a toss up. The election depends wholly on which side motivates their base and captures a majority of that last 20%. That is far from decided, my frien.

Man On A Mission: The election was over 6 months ago. All we're seeing now is the headless GOP chicken squawking. The only think that could cause Obama to lost would be to be caught in bed with a live man or dead woman. And I'm not even sure the live man would do him in.

Sure, why don't we tempt fate some more?

kmmontandon: As someone in California, there's not much that makes less sense than being gung-ho organizing and working for Obama. Romney has about as much chance here as Fred Phelps.

Actually, working for Obama here can help bring in Democrats for the downticket races. Might help keep the Senate if not bring the House back in Democratic territory.

But Rasmussen and Gallop say Romney has the lead!

I don't have any maps and such, so I have no idea what any one's talking about.

This is bad news....for Fartbongo

kmmontandon: I live in a District that re-elected Doolittle. Trust me, it'll be another decade before it's worth bothering to push for a Democrat for Congress.

And Feinstein and Boxer will both keep winning elections until they die, then be replaced by other soon to be long serving Democrat Senators.

I made sure to vote for the farther left Democrats in the primary, so we'll see who ends up going on to the November election.

themindiswatching: Actually, working for Obama here can help bring in Democrats for the downticket races. Might help keep the Senate if not bring the House back in Democratic territory.

Um, the California senate seats aren't under threat. Sure one of them is up, but there's no strong opponents.

And the state legislature isn't going to lose Democratic control any time soon. The districts are too jerryrigged for that to happen, even with redistricting.

If I were running for President, I'd be putting a lot of money and energy into the Congressional races:

- Control of Congress is the real prize this year.

- With the right local candidates, you can make up for the lack of enthusiasm for the top of the ticket (which, let's admit it, is weak on both sides).

It's Karl Rove, I still don't trust it. I don't care if he says something I want to agree with or not.

Makh: It's Karl Rove, I still don't trust it. I don't care if he says something I want to agree with or not.

If the man said the sky was blue, I'd look outside to double check.