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(Hot Air)   The most recent AP polls show that Obama is ahead in polls where Democrats are oversampled by 12%   (hotair.com) divider line 102
    More: Fail, President Obama, U.S. state abbreviations, Democrats, the leaner, Jewish Star  
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1257 clicks; posted to Politics » on 11 May 2012 at 11:40 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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vpb [TotalFark]
2012-05-11 09:19:24 AM
Another blast of warm methane from Hot Air.
Yawn.
 
2012-05-11 09:22:12 AM
Not having RTFA, I'm assuming that Hot Air is biatching that the polls are sampling more Democrats than Republicans for the stupid reason that there just happens to be more registered Democrats than registered Republicans in the country, instead of 50/50 sampling like Jesus commands in the Bible. Because, clearly, if you want an accurate survey of those that are going to vote in November, you shouldn't use a sample size that mimics reality.

Am I close?
 
2012-05-11 09:22:43 AM
Reuters/Ipsos May 3-7, 2012. MOE ± 3.2
Obama 49
Romney 42

Public Religion Research Institute/Religion News Service. May 2-6, 2012. MOE ± 3.8
Obama 47
Romney 38

IBD/CSM/TIPP Poll April 27-May 4, 2012. MOE ± 3.3
Obama 46
Romney 43

Resurgent Republic poll. April 30-May 3, 2012. MOE ± 3.1
Obama 49
Romney 42

Link

The Bloomberg Global Poll, Global Investors. MOE ± 2.8
Obama 49
Romney 38

Link

ELECTORAL VOTE: Obama 309 Romney 209 -- Toss Up 20
RCP: Obama 365 Romney 173
EXAMINER: Obama 320 Romney 218

Ohio
PPP: Obama +7, Purple Strategies: Obama +5, Fox: Obama +6, Rasmussen: Obama +4

Virginia
WaPo: Obama +7, PPP: Obama +8

New Hampshire
WMUR/UNH: Obama +9

Colorado
PPP: Obama +13

Iowa
PPP: Obama +10

Pennsylvania
Obama +8, PPP: Obama +7, Morning Call: Obama +11, Franklin & Marshall: Obama +8

Florida
PPP: Obama +5, Fox News: Obama +2, Marist/NBC: Obama +8

Nevada
Rasmussen: Obama +8, PPP: Obama +8, Las Vegas Review-Journal: Obama +6

Michigan
Marist/NBC: Obama +18, PPP: Obama +16, MRG: Obama +7

North Carolina
Survey USA: Obama +4, PPP: Obama +5


It's neck and neck!
 
2012-05-11 09:41:37 AM
The tears are wonderful, eh?
 
2012-05-11 09:41:45 AM

Dusk-You-n-Me: It's neck and neck!


thelifeinexile.files.wordpress.com
 
2012-05-11 09:56:44 AM
The election is still 6 months away...
 
2012-05-11 10:25:40 AM
AP's poll is biased and wrong. Need evidence? Here, take a look as Rasmussen's poll.

*sigh*
 
2012-05-11 10:37:53 AM
Forget partisan push polls. Gallup & Rasmussen are the gold standard. The current Gallup/Rasmussen average shows Obama behind by 5 points. That's devastating for a sitting democrat president.
 
2012-05-11 10:50:01 AM
hey guys, i hear the current polls are devastating for obama, as a sitting democrat president. why is he even wasting taxpayer's time and money by running in november when he could do the first honorable thing in his life and just concede right now?
 
2012-05-11 10:59:36 AM
Can someone get us the numbers for W. around time in his reelection? i'm sure he was down in some polls too.
 
2012-05-11 11:04:54 AM

SkinnyHead: Forget partisan push polls. Gallup & Rasmussen are the gold standard. The current Gallup/Rasmussen average shows Obama behind by 5 points. That's devastating for a sitting democrat president.


I've always wondered something: in your universe of origin, when people leave, do they say "hello" or "bad bye"? This is a serious question.
 
2012-05-11 11:10:50 AM

kronicfeld: SkinnyHead: Forget partisan push polls. Gallup & Rasmussen are the gold standard. The current Gallup/Rasmussen average shows Obama behind by 5 points. That's devastating for a sitting democrat president.

I've always wondered something: in your universe of origin, when people leave, do they say "hello" or "bad bye"? This is a serious question.


if it's the latter, then he's definitely the smartest person in his universe.
 
2012-05-11 11:30:06 AM

ManateeGag: Can someone get us the numbers for W. around time in his reelection? i'm sure he was down in some polls too.


i1212.photobucket.com
 
2012-05-11 11:34:50 AM

make me some tea: The election is still 6 months away...


I think that there is still 6 months to go must be the most distressing point for the Romney Campaign.
 
2012-05-11 11:37:10 AM

RexTalionis: ManateeGag: Can someone get us the numbers for W. around time in his reelection? i'm sure he was down in some polls too.

[i1212.photobucket.com image 470x394]


thank you, you are truly a prince among farkers.

will you look at that, Bush down by as much as 6, such devistation!
 
2012-05-11 11:43:18 AM
Oversampled?

Like that skillrex music?
 
2012-05-11 11:44:53 AM

JusticeandIndependence: Oversampled?

Like that skillrex music?


exactly. and from what i've heard about obama's disenchanted youth constituency, he's already dropped the base.
 
2012-05-11 11:45:22 AM

thomps: hey guys, i hear the current polls are devastating for obama, as a sitting democrat president. why is he even wasting taxpayer's time and money by running in november when he could do the first honorable thing in his life and just concede right now?


I heard that there was this girl and her boyfriend gave her Spanish Fly and she got all excited and killed herself on a gearshift knob! Did you guys hear that one?
 
2012-05-11 11:46:45 AM

mrshowrules: make me some tea: The election is still 6 months away...

I think that there is still 6 months to go must be the most distressing point for the Romney Campaign.


It sure depresses the shiat out of me.
 
2012-05-11 11:47:31 AM
Does anyone remember when Rasmussen Reports was called "Portrait of America" and had Bush winning the popular vote by 8% in 2000? Turns out they were only off by 9% despite claiming they were more accurate than their competitors.

Rasmussen said he'd get to the bottom of why his predictions were so far off. His final response was to shut down "Portrait of America" and reopen it as "Rasmussen Reports" in an attempt to distance himself from the embarrassment.

Still never had an explanation of why his forecast was so wrong, and nothing about why we should expect his current polling methods to be any more accurate.
 
2012-05-11 11:49:02 AM

thomps: JusticeandIndependence: Oversampled?

Like that skillrex music?

exactly. and from what i've heard about obama's disenchanted youth constituency, he's already dropped the base.


But at least he has the good sense to pick it up.
 
2012-05-11 11:49:47 AM

mrshowrules: make me some tea: The election is still 6 months away...

I think that there is still 6 months to go must be the most distressing point for the Romney Campaign.


Pretty much. Most of America doesn't even know Mitt yet. Pretty soon they'll all be exposed to the candidate so formidable that he couldn't even put Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum away easily.
 
2012-05-11 11:49:55 AM

jso2897: I heard that there was this girl and her boyfriend gave her Spanish Fly


man, MCA is dead.
 
2012-05-11 11:50:47 AM
Am I wrong in thinking that slanting a poll one way or the other would only mobilize the other side? Or is it that you are only motivated to vote if your side is winning?

Confused.
 
2012-05-11 11:51:47 AM

Monual: Does anyone remember when Rasmussen Reports was called "Portrait of America" and had Bush winning the popular vote by 8% in 2000? Turns out they were only off by 9% despite claiming they were more accurate than their competitors.

Rasmussen said he'd get to the bottom of why his predictions were so far off. His final response was to shut down "Portrait of America" and reopen it as "Rasmussen Reports" in an attempt to distance himself from the embarrassment.

Still never had an explanation of why his forecast was so wrong, and nothing about why we should expect his current polling methods to be any more accurate.


It is unclear to me why someone who fails at the simple task of calling voters to ask them simple questions should not be chemically castrated immediately.
 
2012-05-11 11:52:01 AM
That "none of these number may seem a bit high, that's because it is. I assume they mean people who are members of minor parties.

...

When you add up the Independents and None of these its comes to 31% Democrat/ 22% GOP/ 46% other, or Democrat +9


Much like the Mafia, Fark Independents™ do not exist nor have they ever existed.
 
2012-05-11 11:52:06 AM

I_Am_Weasel: AP's poll is biased and wrong. Need evidence? Here, take a look as Rasmussen's poll.

*sigh*


SkinnyHead: Forget partisan push polls. Gallup & Rasmussen are the gold standard. The current Gallup/Rasmussen average shows Obama behind by 5 points. That's devastating for a sitting democrat president.


Whoa.
 
2012-05-11 11:52:22 AM

Dusk-You-n-Me: ELECTORAL VOTE: Obama 309 Romney 209 -- Toss Up 20
RCP: Obama 365 Romney 173
EXAMINER: Obama 320 Romney 218

Ohio
PPP: Obama +7, Purple Strategies: Obama +5, Fox: Obama +6, Rasmussen: Obama +4

Virginia
WaPo: Obama +7, PPP: Obama +8

New Hampshire
WMUR/UNH: Obama +9

Colorado
PPP: Obama +13

Iowa
PPP: Obama +10

Pennsylvania
Obama +8, PPP: Obama +7, Morning Call: Obama +11, Franklin & Marshall: Obama +8

Florida
PPP: Obama +5, Fox News: Obama +2, Marist/NBC: Obama +8

Nevada
Rasmussen: Obama +8, PPP: Obama +8, Las Vegas Review-Journal: Obama +6

Michigan
Marist/NBC: Obama +18, PPP: Obama +16, MRG: Obama +7

North Carolina
Survey USA: Obama +4, PPP: Obama +5


It's neck and neck!


Where are you getting this numbers from? I have been looking for them the last few days and haven't been able to find toss up state polling.
 
2012-05-11 11:52:37 AM

SkinnyHead: Forget partisan push polls. Gallup & Rasmussen are the gold standard. The current Gallup/Rasmussen average shows Obama behind by 5 points. That's devastating for a sitting democrat president.


i279.photobucket.com
 
2012-05-11 11:53:14 AM

Mr.Tangent: Am I wrong in thinking that slanting a poll one way or the other would only mobilize the other side? Or is it that you are only motivated to vote if your side is winning?

Confused.


My guess is it's to create panic in the other campaign, especially when dickheads do the slanting just weeks out from the election.
 
2012-05-11 11:54:18 AM

Edsel: mrshowrules: make me some tea: The election is still 6 months away...

I think that there is still 6 months to go must be the most distressing point for the Romney Campaign.

Pretty much. Most of America doesn't even know Mitt yet. Pretty soon they'll all be exposed to the candidate so formidable that he couldn't even put Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum away easily.


Oh, don't forget that last time around, he lost to the guy who lost to the guy who he's gonna be running against.
 
2012-05-11 11:55:13 AM

SkinnyHead: Forget partisan push polls. Gallup & Rasmussen are the gold standard. The current Gallup/Rasmussen average shows Obama behind by 5 points. That's devastating for a sitting democrat president.


Fnck You, Retard.
 
2012-05-11 11:55:19 AM

coeyagi: Mr.Tangent: Am I wrong in thinking that slanting a poll one way or the other would only mobilize the other side? Or is it that you are only motivated to vote if your side is winning?

Confused.

My guess is it's to create panic in the other campaign, especially when dickheads do the slanting just weeks out from the election.


There's also a sense that if your side is losing, and it's going to be an issue to get to the polls, you just won't bother.

However, I live in Maryland, there really is no point in my voting.
 
2012-05-11 11:55:50 AM

Dusk-You-n-Me: The Bloomberg Global Poll, Global Investors. MOE ± 2.8
Obama 49
Romney 38

Link


I don't really think a poll of non-American voters has much bearing on the election.
 
2012-05-11 11:57:22 AM

Corvus: Dusk-You-n-Me: The Bloomberg Global Poll, Global Investors. MOE ± 2.8
Obama 49
Romney 38

Link

I don't really think a poll of non-American voters has much bearing on the election.


Correct. And it goes against the narrative that Obama is History's Greatest Foreign Policy Monster if peole like him outside the U.S.
 
2012-05-11 11:59:06 AM

INeedAName: coeyagi: Mr.Tangent: Am I wrong in thinking that slanting a poll one way or the other would only mobilize the other side? Or is it that you are only motivated to vote if your side is winning?

Confused.

My guess is it's to create panic in the other campaign, especially when dickheads do the slanting just weeks out from the election.

There's also a sense that if your side is losing, and it's going to be an issue to get to the polls, you just won't bother.

However, I live in Maryland, there really is no point in my voting.


Sure there is, you can increase the popular vote in the event that we need to show that the a) the election was stolen or b) that the electoral college system is a sack of horse shiat.
 
2012-05-11 12:00:28 PM

Corvus: Where are you getting this numbers from? I have been looking for them the last few days and haven't been able to find toss up state polling.


@JeffersonObama

Corvus: I don't really think a poll of non-American voters has much bearing on the election.


Yes, I know. That was just for funsies.
 
2012-05-11 12:00:38 PM

SkinnyHead: Forget partisan push polls. Gallup & Rasmussen are the gold standard. The current Gallup/Rasmussen average shows Obama behind by 5 points. That's devastating for a sitting democrat president.


"After Election night that year, Silver concluded that Rasmussen's polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver's model. He singled out as an example the Hawaii Senate Race, in which Rasmussen showed incumbent Daniel Inouye only 13 points ahead, whereas in actuality he won by a 53% margin - a difference of 40 points from Rasmussen's poll, or "the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight's database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998"."

Rassmussen is gold, SkinnyHead, gold!
 
2012-05-11 12:03:37 PM

NemoD: SkinnyHead: Forget partisan push polls. Gallup & Rasmussen are the gold standard. The current Gallup/Rasmussen average shows Obama behind by 5 points. That's devastating for a sitting democrat president.

"After Election night that year, Silver concluded that Rasmussen's polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver's model. He singled out as an example the Hawaii Senate Race, in which Rasmussen showed incumbent Daniel Inouye only 13 points ahead, whereas in actuality he won by a 53% margin - a difference of 40 points from Rasmussen's poll, or "the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight's database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998"."

Rassmussen is gold, SkinnyHead, gold!


This really does puzzle me. Why is Rassmussen such an outlier?
 
2012-05-11 12:05:28 PM

PartTimeBuddha: NemoD: SkinnyHead: Forget partisan push polls. Gallup & Rasmussen are the gold standard. The current Gallup/Rasmussen average shows Obama behind by 5 points. That's devastating for a sitting democrat president.

"After Election night that year, Silver concluded that Rasmussen's polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver's model. He singled out as an example the Hawaii Senate Race, in which Rasmussen showed incumbent Daniel Inouye only 13 points ahead, whereas in actuality he won by a 53% margin - a difference of 40 points from Rasmussen's poll, or "the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight's database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998"."

Rassmussen is gold, SkinnyHead, gold!

This really does puzzle me. Why is Rassmussen such an outlier?


Probably use a methodology designed to favor conservatives, ether by fixing their samples to be heavy with them, or using some sort of correction to lower the effective size of the democratic samples.
 
2012-05-11 12:05:34 PM

PartTimeBuddha: NemoD: SkinnyHead: Forget partisan push polls. Gallup & Rasmussen are the gold standard. The current Gallup/Rasmussen average shows Obama behind by 5 points. That's devastating for a sitting democrat president.

"After Election night that year, Silver concluded that Rasmussen's polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver's model. He singled out as an example the Hawaii Senate Race, in which Rasmussen showed incumbent Daniel Inouye only 13 points ahead, whereas in actuality he won by a 53% margin - a difference of 40 points from Rasmussen's poll, or "the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight's database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998"."

Rassmussen is gold, SkinnyHead, gold!

This really does puzzle me. Why is Rassmussen such an outlier?


In a word, pudding.

peterdaou.com
 
2012-05-11 12:06:20 PM

coeyagi: INeedAName: coeyagi: Mr.Tangent: Am I wrong in thinking that slanting a poll one way or the other would only mobilize the other side? Or is it that you are only motivated to vote if your side is winning?

Confused.

My guess is it's to create panic in the other campaign, especially when dickheads do the slanting just weeks out from the election.

There's also a sense that if your side is losing, and it's going to be an issue to get to the polls, you just won't bother.

However, I live in Maryland, there really is no point in my voting.

Sure there is, you can increase the popular vote in the event that we need to show that the a) the election was stolen or b) that the electoral college system is a sack of horse shiat.


As a Maryland dem, my vote tends to be a bit redundant. I don't expect we'll go red any time in the next hundred years. But yes, my number in the popular vote would be useful.
 
2012-05-11 12:10:38 PM

INeedAName: coeyagi: INeedAName: coeyagi: Mr.Tangent: Am I wrong in thinking that slanting a poll one way or the other would only mobilize the other side? Or is it that you are only motivated to vote if your side is winning?

Confused.

My guess is it's to create panic in the other campaign, especially when dickheads do the slanting just weeks out from the election.

There's also a sense that if your side is losing, and it's going to be an issue to get to the polls, you just won't bother.

However, I live in Maryland, there really is no point in my voting.

Sure there is, you can increase the popular vote in the event that we need to show that the a) the election was stolen or b) that the electoral college system is a sack of horse shiat.

As a Maryland dem, my vote tends to be a bit redundant. I don't expect we'll go red any time in the next hundred years. But yes, my number in the popular vote would be useful.


Especially since there are states who throw their electoral votes the same way as the popular vote.
 
2012-05-11 12:12:45 PM

make me some tea: The election is still 6 months away...


This.

Anyone paying attention polls before the conventions... needs to fixated on something more meaningful. Like the NBA draft, or who's going to win Survivor.
 
2012-05-11 12:12:52 PM

INeedAName: coeyagi: INeedAName: coeyagi: Mr.Tangent: Am I wrong in thinking that slanting a poll one way or the other would only mobilize the other side? Or is it that you are only motivated to vote if your side is winning?

Confused.

My guess is it's to create panic in the other campaign, especially when dickheads do the slanting just weeks out from the election.

There's also a sense that if your side is losing, and it's going to be an issue to get to the polls, you just won't bother.

However, I live in Maryland, there really is no point in my voting.

Sure there is, you can increase the popular vote in the event that we need to show that the a) the election was stolen or b) that the electoral college system is a sack of horse shiat.

As a Maryland dem, my vote tends to be a bit redundant. I don't expect we'll go red any time in the next hundred years. But yes, my number in the popular vote would be useful.


Isn't there a same-sex marriage initiative on the ballot in MD? I keep seeing ads for it.

Don't just not vote, man! Vote even if you skip the presidential ballot.
 
2012-05-11 12:13:41 PM

PartTimeBuddha: This really does puzzle me. Why is Rassmussen such an outlier?


FiveThirtyEight

Nate Silver can explain much better than me.
 
2012-05-11 12:15:15 PM
I

Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: Not having RTFA, I'm assuming that Hot Air is biatching that the polls are sampling more Democrats than Republicans for the stupid reason that there just happens to be more registered Democrats than registered Republicans in the country, instead of 50/50 sampling like Jesus commands in the Bible. Because, clearly, if you want an accurate survey of those that are going to vote in November, you shouldn't use a sample size that mimics reality.

Am I close?


Yes, you're totally right. Your amazing and inventive strategy of not reading the farking article shows your immense, some may say Solomaniac, wisdom and refined intellect.

Nope, just kidding, you're ignoring the argument and demonstrating your own prejudices...

In all seriousness, TFA is right. There's virtually no chance in hell that 2012 will see a higher Democratic turnout than 2008, and the PVI in 2008 was D+7. AP has their poll as D+9, or D+12 if you include leaners. That is, to be frank, bullshiat.

Rasmussen tends to oversample Republicans by a couple of percentage points, so you should take their polls with a grain of salt. So they're R+4 is probably more like an even rating. Gallup's D+3 is in the plausible range.

But even correcting for Rassmussen's pro-R biases, that's not good news for Obama. In 2010 you had a neutral PVI, which lead to a GOP landslide. If the PVI is actually neutral this year, Romney wins in a rout.

If I were going to make an educated bet, I'd say the PVI will still favor the Democrats, but by much less tha the +7 it was in 2008. But that still shifts enough states for Romney to eke out a narrow win in the Electoral College. If Romney wins Ohio, he's probably going to win the whole enchilada. If Romney wins Pennsylvania (unlikely as that is), Obama's toast. If Romney can't win either Ohio or Pennsylvania, then he's probably not going to win.

But hey, according to Fark, Obama is going to win by something on the order of 35x10^47%, so who cares what the actual polls say?
 
2012-05-11 12:15:54 PM

there their theyre: INeedAName: coeyagi: INeedAName: coeyagi: Mr.Tangent: Am I wrong in thinking that slanting a poll one way or the other would only mobilize the other side? Or is it that you are only motivated to vote if your side is winning?

Confused.

My guess is it's to create panic in the other campaign, especially when dickheads do the slanting just weeks out from the election.

There's also a sense that if your side is losing, and it's going to be an issue to get to the polls, you just won't bother.

However, I live in Maryland, there really is no point in my voting.

Sure there is, you can increase the popular vote in the event that we need to show that the a) the election was stolen or b) that the electoral college system is a sack of horse shiat.

As a Maryland dem, my vote tends to be a bit redundant. I don't expect we'll go red any time in the next hundred years. But yes, my number in the popular vote would be useful.

Especially since there are states who throw their electoral votes the same way as the popular vote.


Going back to 1852, Maryland has thrown its electoral votes to the GOP 12 times.
 
2012-05-11 12:17:58 PM
qorkfiend:
Isn't there a same-sex marriage initiative on the ballot in MD? I keep seeing ads for it.

Don't just not vote, man! Vote even if you skip the presidential ballot.


I was completely unaware that this was on the ballot. Sadly by the time the votes come around I will be a DC resident.
 
2012-05-11 12:21:27 PM

PartTimeBuddha: NemoD: SkinnyHead: Forget partisan push polls. Gallup & Rasmussen are the gold standard. The current Gallup/Rasmussen average shows Obama behind by 5 points. That's devastating for a sitting democrat president.

"After Election night that year, Silver concluded that Rasmussen's polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver's model. He singled out as an example the Hawaii Senate Race, in which Rasmussen showed incumbent Daniel Inouye only 13 points ahead, whereas in actuality he won by a 53% margin - a difference of 40 points from Rasmussen's poll, or "the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight's database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998"."

Rassmussen is gold, SkinnyHead, gold!

This really does puzzle me. Why is Rassmussen such an outlier?


Rassmussen is dead on. Reality is the outlier.
 
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