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(Yahoo)   Vegas now has point spreads for 240 of the 256 games of the upcoming NFL season. See how many wins Vegas predicts your team to have (or not, if you're a Browns fan)   (sports.yahoo.com) divider line 92
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3413 clicks; posted to Sports » on 10 May 2012 at 8:20 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-05-10 08:10:37 AM
So it looks like the Patriots are favored to go at least 15-0. Fine with me.
 
2012-05-10 08:31:02 AM

SoxSweepAgain: So it looks like the Patriots are favored to go at least 15-0. Fine with me.


Fine with me too, seeing as how they were favored to win the last two superbowls they were in.
 
2012-05-10 08:34:42 AM
New York Giants (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Hahahahaha ONLY 1.5? Easiest money in the world!
 
2012-05-10 08:38:25 AM
Can someone explain to me how this works, never really payed attention to numbers and sports gambling.
 
2012-05-10 08:40:10 AM
Awesome headline.
 
2012-05-10 08:49:12 AM

INeedAName: Can someone explain to me how this works, never really payed attention to numbers and sports gambling.


The numbers are basically the adjusted score after the game is over. So for mainstreet62's example, 1.5 points would be added to the Giants final score. If the Giants win after the 1.5 points are added, then whoever bet on them would win the bet. That's why he considers it easy money, because the Giants should win most of their games...giving them points just makes it sweeter.

At least, that's how I've always been told it works, I only do friendly wagers on games.
 
2012-05-10 08:50:25 AM
Browns Season Ticket holder for 25 years. Gave 'em up at the end of last season.

No regrets so far.

Not expecting to have any.
 
2012-05-10 08:52:37 AM

lmxloco: INeedAName: Can someone explain to me how this works, never really payed attention to numbers and sports gambling.

The numbers are basically the adjusted score after the game is over. So for mainstreet62's example, 1.5 points would be added to the Giants final score. If the Giants win after the 1.5 points are added, then whoever bet on them would win the bet. That's why he considers it easy money, because the Giants should win most of their games...giving them points just makes it sweeter.

At least, that's how I've always been told it works, I only do friendly wagers on games.


And to add to that, if the first team has a (+#) then Vegas expects them to be behind at the end. The larger the #, the more Vegas expects them to lose by. On the flip side a (-#) would mean Vegas expects them to be ahead at the end. The larger the #, the more Vegas expects them to win by.

If you have sure things, bet now because as teams show their true selves over the course of the season, these odds will change, making some of the bets closer than they might be now.
 
2012-05-10 08:53:21 AM
Point spreads are not predictions.
 
2012-05-10 08:59:41 AM
Ummm .. Steelers +2 against the donkos?
 
2012-05-10 09:01:07 AM
Eagles seem to be finishing 13-2. I don't know about that.
 
2012-05-10 09:10:33 AM
Put me down for 2 grand on Bengals +6 vs. the Steelers in week 16
 
2012-05-10 09:10:46 AM

Neondistraction: SoxSweepAgain: So it looks like the Patriots are favored to go at least 15-0. Fine with me.

Fine with me too, seeing as how they were favored to win the last two superbowls they were in.


Pats weren't favored to win the last Superbowl.

/Pats fan
 
2012-05-10 09:10:54 AM
If I am reading it correctly, the Rams are going to be pure fail this year. They are predicting a 3-12 season so far.
 
2012-05-10 09:13:13 AM

Wettner: Eagles seem to be finishing 13-2. I don't know about that.


Yeah, I'm fairly certain that if I bet the money line against them every single week based on those lines I would probably walk away with a good hunk of change at the end of the season.
 
2012-05-10 09:13:16 AM

SharkTrager: Point spreads are not predictions.


was going to say something along these lines.
 
2012-05-10 09:15:34 AM

mainstreet62: Hahahahaha ONLY 1.5? Easiest money in the world!


Ah, offseason hubris.
 
2012-05-10 09:18:55 AM
From what I understand, you're far better off betting the lines now since, right now, these lines have the least amount of human emotion involved with them as they will all season. These spreads will start taking into account fan devotion, interesting story lines, etc to try to drive betting in one direction or another.

/ could be wrong. just what a sharp told me.
 
2012-05-10 09:19:01 AM
So, the Vikes predicted to win 3? Helloooo long season.
 
2012-05-10 09:25:52 AM

mainstreet62: New York Giants (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Hahahahaha ONLY 1.5? Easiest money in the world!


I dunno, it's a regular season game, so the Falcons are competent and the Giants are mediocre. If it's a playoff game then the Falcons suck and the Giants turn into a super-team.

/I would like to have bets on Seattle to cover the -1 spread against the Rams. I'll also take them getting 2 against the Cardinals. I'll also take them getting 3 against the Dolphins.
//I also feel like the Panthers are WAY overrated (Pick vs Giants? -3.5 vs Seahawks?)
 
2012-05-10 09:30:55 AM

This Looks Fun: So, the Vikes predicted to win 3? Helloooo long season.


No, as others have tried to point out, the line is set to get folks to bet equally on both teams. If there's too many bets put on one team or another they have to adjust the spread to get things to even out. Ideally they want Peter to pay Paul and vice versa without them having to cover any losses from too many people betting on one team. They're in it to collect the vig from both parties in the transaction.

/Though a 3 win season is probably a best case scenario
//Sköl new stadium?
 
2012-05-10 09:32:57 AM
So which team should I bet against now so when they fall apart during the season I can bet on them and have some 7-point middles?
 
2012-05-10 09:33:07 AM
Who the hell did Tampa acquire that they are touchdown favorite over the Cowboys in week 3?
 
2012-05-10 09:34:33 AM

SharkTrager: Point spreads are not predictions.


EXACTLY.

Point spreads change as time draws closer to the game, because they are based on how people are betting... the "house" is guaranteed a certain percentage, no matter what, based on the point spread's adjustment.
 
2012-05-10 09:43:25 AM
/it's hard to be a Raiders fan.
 
2012-05-10 09:44:19 AM
The Cowboys at 6-9 with losses to the Panthers, Bengals, and Seahawks, but a win over the Steelers? I'm sure I'm reading this wrong. Do I physically have to drive to Vegas to make a bet, or is this something I can do online?
 
2012-05-10 09:44:35 AM

mr.doctor: If I am reading it correctly, the Rams are going to be pure fail this year. They are predicting a 3-12 season so far.


After learning more about how this is speculation based on people's bets. It seems people have thrown the Rams under the bus. Might be a time to start putting some bets. The best one I see so far is the St. Louis Rams (+4.5) at Miami Dolphins, since I think the fins are going into full collapse mode.
 
2012-05-10 09:44:36 AM

IAmRight: mainstreet62: New York Giants (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Hahahahaha ONLY 1.5? Easiest money in the world!

I dunno, it's a regular season game, so the Falcons are competent and the Giants are mediocre. If it's a playoff game then the Falcons suck and the Giants turn into a super-team.

/I would like to have bets on Seattle to cover the -1 spread against the Rams. I'll also take them getting 2 against the Cardinals. I'll also take them getting 3 against the Dolphins.
//I also feel like the Panthers are WAY overrated (Pick vs Giants? -3.5 vs Seahawks?)


Panthers are all over the place. I don't think they know what to make of em. I think theyre a .500 team.

/fan
 
2012-05-10 09:45:36 AM

Hectropolis: This Looks Fun: So, the Vikes predicted to win 3? Helloooo long season.

No, as others have tried to point out, the line is set to get folks to bet equally on both teams. If there's too many bets put on one team or another they have to adjust the spread to get things to even out. Ideally they want Peter to pay Paul and vice versa without them having to cover any losses from too many people betting on one team. They're in it to collect the vig from both parties in the transaction.

/Though a 3 win season is probably a best case scenario
//Sköl new stadium?


Ah, I was wrong!
 
2012-05-10 09:47:18 AM

mattador: Panthers are all over the place. I don't think they know what to make of em. I think theyre a .500 team.


I think they're a .500 team if they continue to develop and do things the right way. I think if Steve Smith gets injured, as he frequently does (though he usually plays through it - it does affect him, though) that Cam isn't going to just keep the passing game going. If they're smart and stick to the run, they'll be good. If they try to make it the Cam Newton show, they'll lose a lot. But yeah, I wouldn't want to set lines on them.
 
2012-05-10 09:48:14 AM
Well, that's that. Certainly no chance that these lines will ever change from week to week during the season.
 
2012-05-10 09:59:21 AM

kronicfeld: mainstreet62: Hahahahaha ONLY 1.5? Easiest money in the world!

Ah, offseason hubris.


Has little to do with my excessive pride for the Giants. It's more technical, since the most common scoring methods in football are field goals and touchdowns, both of which score at least double the points of the 1.5 point spread. Even a safety would beat that spread.

So, tie game late in the 4th quarter with Eli Manning under center? HELL YEAH I would take that bet!

A 3-3.5 or 7-7.5 point spread in ANY game, however, would make me think a bit about my betting strategy.
 
2012-05-10 10:02:24 AM

LesserEvil: SharkTrager: Point spreads are not predictions.

EXACTLY.

Point spreads change as time draws closer to the game, because they are based on how people are betting... the "house" is guaranteed a certain percentage, no matter what, based on the point spread's adjustment.


Glad to see this covered.

/eventually the house always wins
 
2012-05-10 10:05:10 AM
Ouch, 4-11 for the Redskins including getting blown out by the Saints who will have no coaching staff or defensive players when they meet week 1.
 
2012-05-10 10:17:10 AM

IAmRight: mattador: Panthers are all over the place. I don't think they know what to make of em. I think theyre a .500 team.

I think they're a .500 team if they continue to develop and do things the right way. I think if Steve Smith gets injured, as he frequently does (though he usually plays through it - it does affect him, though) that Cam isn't going to just keep the passing game going. If they're smart and stick to the run, they'll be good. If they try to make it the Cam Newton show, they'll lose a lot. But yeah, I wouldn't want to set lines on them.


Agreed.
 
2012-05-10 10:26:35 AM

pag1107: Ouch, 4-11 for the Redskins including getting blown out by the Saints who will have no coaching staff or defensive players when they meet week 1.


That would be a great game to take the over no matter where it's set. The Redskins should be able to keep up with the Saints scoring since both offenses will face questionable defenses. In that matchup, points should be...bountiful?
 
2012-05-10 10:29:04 AM

Mateorocks: Well, that's that. Certainly no chance that these lines will ever change from week to week during the season.


That's that, if you place your wager now. It locks in that spread for you.
 
2012-05-10 10:31:58 AM

Hectropolis: This Looks Fun: So, the Vikes predicted to win 3? Helloooo long season.

No, as others have tried to point out, the line is set to get folks to bet equally on both teams. If there's too many bets put on one team or another they have to adjust the spread to get things to even out. Ideally they want Peter to pay Paul and vice versa without them having to cover any losses from too many people betting on one team. They're in it to collect the vig from both parties in the transaction.

/Though a 3 win season is probably a best case scenario
//Sköl new stadium?


Ah, so let me talk this out... the line is really where they see the majority of BETS (not necessarily points) going? And to keep the bets even they adjust the line? Where does their profit come from then?
 
2012-05-10 10:36:57 AM

This Looks Fun: Where does their profit come from then?


Uneven payouts.
 
2012-05-10 10:37:03 AM

Guelph35: So which team should I bet against now so when they fall apart during the season I can bet on them and have some 7-point middles?


Eagles
 
2012-05-10 10:38:22 AM

Iceberg659: Neondistraction: SoxSweepAgain: So it looks like the Patriots are favored to go at least 15-0. Fine with me.

Fine with me too, seeing as how they were favored to win the last two superbowls they were in.

Pats weren't favored to win the last Superbowl.

/Pats fan


I seem to recall them being favored to win by a slim margin, but perhaps I'm mistaken.
 
2012-05-10 10:38:37 AM

UNAUTHORIZED FINGER: Mateorocks: Well, that's that. Certainly no chance that these lines will ever change from week to week during the season.

That's that, if you place your wager now. It locks in that spread for you.


Yeah, but it's a helluva lot easier and more precise to wait until you find out who is actually playing on a Sunday before you place a bet. You can't really just look at these spreads and determine if Cam Newton will regress this year or not, as an example.

I'm a degenerate gambler. I know these things.
 
2012-05-10 10:39:00 AM
Green Bay Packers out of 15 games rated:

15-0

Sure hope the D and O-line improves this year. We need another Super Bowl to make up for the confusion last year.

/GO PACKERS!
 
2012-05-10 10:40:37 AM

fickenchucker: Green Bay Packers out of 15 games rated:

15-0


morbo.jpg
 
2012-05-10 10:41:44 AM

kronicfeld: This Looks Fun: Where does their profit come from then?

Uneven payouts.


They do NOT want uneven payouts because casinos may be in the gambling business but they're not gamblers. Winners pay a 10% commission. The line is set so that they have an equal number of winners and losers (optimally) and then they just get to keep the 10% commission. Technically, this is called "vigorish".
 
2012-05-10 10:44:21 AM
I do like the idea of the Lions at 10-5 with a toss-up against Chicago at the end of the year. Seems like a reasonable suggestion to me.
 
2012-05-10 10:45:05 AM

meanmutton: They do NOT want uneven payouts because casinos may be in the gambling business but they're not gamblers. Winners pay a 10% commission. The line is set so that they have an equal number of winners and losers (optimally) and then they just get to keep the 10% commission. Technically, this is called "vigorish".


Wouldn't it be more accurate that they want even overall payout on both sides of the line, not necessary an equal number of bettors?

I don't bet on sports in casinos, just on the likes of Bodog/Bovada, and very often the payouts are uneven. A gross underdog will pay off two or three to one, and a gross overdog will be -400 or something.
 
2012-05-10 10:58:34 AM

kronicfeld: I don't bet on sports in casinos, just on the likes of Bodog/Bovada, and very often the payouts are uneven. A gross underdog will pay off two or three to one, and a gross overdog will be -400 or something.


Moneylines are wildly uneven, point spreads are usually either exactly the same or slightly different (when they don't want to move a line a whole half point, they'll slightly mess with the payout).

And yes, they're trying to make the payouts even - however, the goal for them is to have it pretty close to what people think the result is going to be, which is effectively a prediction. They don't want to change the line a lot and have the possibility of something like Super Bowl XII where the line went from Steelers -4.5 to Steelers -4 to Steelers -3.5 as money came in on the Cowboys...then the Steelers won by 4, so everyone who bet on 4 had their money refunded, everyone who bet on the Cowboys to the point that the line moved at -4.5 got paid, and everyone who took the Steelers at -3.5 got paid. Casinos took a bath on that one.
 
2012-05-10 11:00:05 AM
FTFA: As I sit here typing (yes, you are allowed to bring your computers and iPads into the book)

Since when?!?!?! Nevada gambling regulations prohibit the use of cell phones, or other communication devices in sports books, at least they have for the 10-ish times I've been to Vegas (though it may have changed in the last two years, hence my question).

Once, I was playing a poker tournament at Caesars Palace, and was on a break. Stepped outside of the poker room to email dinner plans with a friend and got harassed by a rent-a-cop because of this rule.

/CSB
 
2012-05-10 11:13:46 AM
Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) at Washington Redskins

LOL -- I'm all over this one. 'Skins are gonna kill the Bungles

/RGIIITM 4 Life!!!
//HTTR!!!!!!
 
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