tenpoundsofcheese: closer than I thought.

For Romney to be tied with 0bama in florida, ohio, and PA is good from Romney.

He's not. Obama's ahead in PA and OH by a healthy margin. (Average of 7 in PA, and 4 Ohio) Florida is pretty much a tie, but it always is.

kukukupo: I could see Florida and Ohio going Republican. (of course, I could also see them going Dem.)

It really doesn't matter. Obama and Romney are basically the exact same candidate.

Nah. Obama only lacks the COURAGE of his convictions. Rmoney lacks conviction altogether.

Mad_Radhu: [retromedia.ign.com image 336x240]

Oh man, I can still hear those stupid guards yelling.

"Aaaay-EEE-EEE! Aaaay-EEE-EEE!"

Nina_Hartley's_Ass: IMDWalrus: tenpoundsofcheese: we get it, he's WHITE.

You guys REALLY don't get how the politics tab memes work, do you?

He's been doing this for days now. I think it's just adorable.

But I gotta admit, Romney could be the whitest man in America.

/and thus, the gop nominee.

I would argue he's the blackest white man in America.

Tor_Eckman: The Dems that oversee elections this year better be on their toes or Pennsyltucky will win the day just as it did in 2010.

Could be... But I wouldn't worry too much about precedent set by the 2010 elections. Midterm elections are almost always bad for the incumbent party.

King Something: Mrtraveler01: Seems like a pretty accurate map to me.

I'd be surprised if Obama took Missouri this year when he didn't even take it in 2008.

He came close enough that they had a recount. Granted, it would not have made a difference one way or another in 2008, but him winning MO this time around is slightly more likely than you think.

I think by all objective measures, Obama is going to do worse this year than last time. The fact that Missouri even came close to electing him last time demonstrates just how horrible Bush was. I'm sure that Romney will take Missouri by a comfortable margin, this time, maybe even NC too. But Obama will still win in the end.

eddiesocket: I think by all objective measures, Obama is going to do worse this year than last time. The fact that Missouri even came close to electing him last time demonstrates just how horrible Bush was.

The real kicker was the late-election-season financial crisis and economic downturn. Thrown on top of frustration with Bush and an especially weak VP candidate in Palin, and I think you've got the 2008 elections looking like a high-water mark for the Democrats that will stand for a while.

When is he going to dump copious amounts of cash out of a balloon? That'll get a few votes.

Too easy.

/no really, that's too easy

ejecteject: 4 years of Obama, have killed more jobs than Reagan created in 8 years

Um. No they haven't.

Sabyen91: Joliet_Jake: Iowa as a toss-up is really laughable. There hasn't been a poll there since February, which is why it's even on the brink of toss-up status.

I am not sure how Wisconsin is a toss-up either. Most polls show a double digit or close to it lead for Obama.

Only on the assumption that Walker wins and the Democrats have to start doing damage control because the national Democrats are scared the message will become "They wasted X millions on these frivolous recalls- why elect their leader?". It's a feeble narrative but easy to buy into unless you're here.

/By the way, anyone see this? Link
//Someone else submitted it but it didn't get picked up
///At this point we're getting close to "The Daily Scott Walker Thread"

Yes, Minnesota is "leaning" towards Obama.

The one state that didn't go for St. Ronnie in 1984 is leaning Democrat.

ejecteject: 4 years of Obama, have killed more jobs than Reagan created in 8 years

now thats change we can believe in

That's not an unemployment or employment graph.

Rich Cream: [img252.imageshack.us image 555x279]


Too easy.

/no really, that's too easy

Yeah...sorry...PA's going blue, as per the usual. And likely so will Ohio.

Rich Cream: [img252.imageshack.us image 555x279]


Too easy.

/no really, that's too easy

Yes, Romney can win if he takes PA and Ohio.

Too bad he's lagging in the polls in both states.

Obama's already absolutely running brutal ads in Ohio, mentioning Romney's secret offshore accounts, for example. It's going to be a down and dirty slugfest. Most likely, Obama will win. Looking at the Ohio primary, Romney barely squeaked by Santorum for the win. There is absolutely no enthusiasm for Romney, and he has the distinct disadvantage of being the type of guy you dislike more the more you know about him.

ejecteject: the new Obama forward.... can we please have a reset button.

best part.....

forever

Also, this map doesn't take into account RON PAUL running as a 3rd party.

ejecteject: the new Obama forward.... can we please have a reset button.

[i1156.photobucket.com image 546x349]

Account created: 2012-04-25 03:58:51

*plonk*

elchip: ejecteject: the new Obama forward.... can we please have a reset button.

best part.....

forever

Login: ejecteject
Name: doug
Location: maryland
Account created: 2012-04-25 03:58:51

Coincidentally winterwhile also claimed to be from MD.

Coincidence?

Ohio is crooked as hell. Republicans own it. PA is not going to be affected by a few thousand pissed-off workers from 25 years ago. And despite it's liberalness out east it's got a big ass out back.

Guidette Frankentits: Also, this map doesn't take into account RON PAUL running as a 3rd party.

You're right.

Here's an updated map, taking Paul into account: Link

ejecteject: cameroncrazy1984: ejecteject: 4 years of Obama, have killed more jobs than Reagan created in 8 years

Um. No they haven't.

I made notes for the slow dem's

You don't even know what year Obama was inaugurated.

DamnYankees: So every single 'toss up' state is one that Obama won last time around, some winning handily. PA is a tossup? Really? Come up now.

realclearpolitics has a far more accurate map with polling numbers to back it up. NYT is trolling for page views. The media loves a close contest.

ejecteject: cameroncrazy1984: ejecteject: 4 years of Obama, have killed more jobs than Reagan created in 8 years

Um. No they haven't.

I made notes for the slow dem's

[i1156.photobucket.com image 640x437]

Damn that Obama for making 300,000 Americans turn 65 every month!


He has one POWERFUL time machine!

eddiesocket: DamnYankees: So every single 'toss up' state is one that Obama won last time around, some winning handily. PA is a tossup? Really? Come up now.

realclearpolitics has a far more accurate map with polling numbers to back it up. NYT is trolling for page views. The media loves a close contest.

RCP cherry picks its polls. NYT uses that idiot over at 538. He's not real reliable, is he.

Rich Cream: Ohio is crooked as hell. Republicans own it.

How so?

Rich Cream: PA is not going to be affected by a few thousand pissed-off workers from 25 years ago. And despite it's liberalness out east it's got a big ass out back.

Except for the fact it's liberalness (ie: the suburbs of Philly) determine whether the state goes blue or red. So unless Romney wins over the Independent voters in the Philly suburbs, he's toast in PA.

Mrtraveler01: elchip: ejecteject: the new Obama forward.... can we please have a reset button.

best part.....

forever

Login: ejecteject
Name: doug
Location: maryland
Account created: 2012-04-25 03:58:51

Coincidentally winterwhile also claimed to be from MD.

Coincidence?

Too derpy too soon.

eddiesocket: You're right.

Here's an updated map, taking Paul into account: Link

You think RON PAUL running as 3rd party won't affect the tossups?

change1211: Mrtraveler01: elchip: ejecteject: the new Obama forward.... can we please have a reset button.

best part.....

forever

Login: ejecteject
Name: doug
Location: maryland
Account created: 2012-04-25 03:58:51

Coincidentally winterwhile also claimed to be from MD.

Coincidence?

Too derpy too soon.

Well the fact he uses the EXACT same mannerisms as winterwhile doesn't really help his case either.

cameroncrazy1984: eddiesocket: DamnYankees: So every single 'toss up' state is one that Obama won last time around, some winning handily. PA is a tossup? Really? Come up now.

realclearpolitics has a far more accurate map with polling numbers to back it up. NYT is trolling for page views. The media loves a close contest.

RCP cherry picks its polls. NYT uses that idiot over at 538. He's not real reliable, is he.

RCP pretty much uses all polls in existence, and Nate Silver has yet to weigh in on this election's stats. But you go ahead and keep believing PA and Colorado and Wisconsin are "swing states".

Guidette Frankentits: eddiesocket: You're right.

Here's an updated map, taking Paul into account: Link

You think RON PAUL running as 3rd party won't affect the tossups?

Nope.

eddiesocket: RCP pretty much uses all polls in existence

Oh, so Rasmussen should be weighted the same as a more accurate poll?

Yeah, that makes complete and total sense.

eddiesocket: Guidette Frankentits: Also, this map doesn't take into account RON PAUL running as a 3rd party.

You're right.

Here's an updated map, taking Paul into account: Link

DamnYankees: cameroncrazy1984: RCP cherry picks its polls. NYT uses that idiot over at 538. He's not real reliable, is he.

Where does it say that Nate Silver is the one who decided how to color the map in TFA?

It doesn't. Guy's an idiot. Nate's still putting together his numbers. He says it will be another couple weeks

Rich Cream: Ohio is crooked as hell. Republicans own it. PA is not going to be affected by a few thousand pissed-off workers from 25 years ago. And despite it's liberalness out east it's got a big ass out back.

Not this year. In 2006, Strickland killed Blackwell by 20%. Kasich is now toxic to a majority of Ohioans due to SB 5., and it will carry over into the presidential election this time, just like 2006 carried over to 2008. Kasich is one of the most unpopular governors, with him polling at about 40% approval after only one year in office. If he is seen anywhere near Romney, it will kill Romney.

ejecteject: cameroncrazy1984: ejecteject: 4 years of Obama, have killed more jobs than Reagan created in 8 years

Um. No they haven't.

I made notes for the slow dem's

[i1156.photobucket.com image 640x437]

Ah yes...now that the Unemployment rate is inconveniently going down every month, let's find some measurement, no matter how obscure, that looks bad. Never mind that never once before Obama have I ever heard of "participation rate", now it is the only thing that matters!

DamnYankees: cameroncrazy1984: eddiesocket: RCP pretty much uses all polls in existence

Oh, so Rasmussen should be weighted the same as a more accurate poll?

Yeah, that makes complete and total sense.

Including Rasmussem makes things even more biased towards Romney, though, so that makes it even worse.

Yeah. I'm beginning to think cameroncrazy is bad at this whole "internet commenting" thing.

cameroncrazy1984: eddiesocket: DamnYankees: So every single 'toss up' state is one that Obama won last time around, some winning handily. PA is a tossup? Really? Come up now.

realclearpolitics has a far more accurate map with polling numbers to back it up. NYT is trolling for page views. The media loves a close contest.

RCP cherry picks its polls. NYT uses that idiot over at 538. He's not real reliable, is he.

I trust Silver's blog much more than I trust the rest of NYT when it comes to polling. As far as I can see the data source is not linked or referenced on the map; if it were based on Silver's work I think it would be available on his blog. As it stands I have no idea where their data comes from.

Silver has also mentioned a number of times that he doesn't trust polls this far out.

Has anyone mentioned that it's still six months until the election?

Tor_Eckman: Skyrmion: RevCarter: I'm pretty surprised that they consider VA and PA as tossups.

PA is certainly a stretch. If Obama loses PA, it's safe to assume the economy has tanked or something and he's losing heavily in a wave election. VA is probably a legit toss-up though.

Don't be too sure. If the voter ID laws that were recently introduced by our wonderful Republican Governor and his lackeys do what they were meant to, and turnout in Philly and Pittsburgh is low he could easily take the state. I'm sure the RNC will do their best to do whatever they can to make it difficult to vote this time around. I expect the same kind of crap that went down in Ohio in 2004-removing voting machines or just plain closing down polling stations in heavily Democratic areas so people have to wait in line for hours, excluding people who have similar names as felons, etc, etc, etc.

The Dems that oversee elections this year better be on their toes or Pennsyltucky will win the day just as it did in 2010.

THIS. I really do think Romney has a shot at winning PA, namely because most of the City of Philadelphia (and a bunch of college towns) won't get to vote thanks to the new voter ID laws. I know that they allow provisional ballots to be filled out, but people aren't going to know about that ahead of time. The state GOP will just scream "you need a photo ID with an expiration date!!!!" and conveniently omit the fact that provisional ballots are allowed... thus suppressing voter turnout.

/adjusts tinfoil hat

Wait... Can that happen?