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(Boston.com)   Red Sox payroll tops the $77 million mark. On the disabled list   (boston.com) divider line 54
    More: Fail, Red Sox, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Dan Duquette, Bobby Valentine, payrolls, ground ball  
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809 clicks; posted to Sports » on 05 May 2012 at 2:56 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-05-05 02:20:50 PM
That's what you get for f*cking over Tito and Theo. Karma is a b*tch.
 
2012-05-05 03:25:10 PM
You sports nerds care about the weirdest things.
 
2012-05-05 03:25:33 PM
bu bu bu but Mariano Rivera!
 
2012-05-05 03:28:47 PM

WTF Indeed: That's what you get for f*cking over Tito and Theo. Karma is a b*tch.


I'd say it's also karma for firing Dr. Morgan as the primary physician of the Red Sox after the 2004 season...
 
2012-05-05 03:32:29 PM

WTF Indeed: That's what you get for f*cking over Tito and Theo. Karma is a b*tch.


No, this is why Theo had to go; As good as he was making some trades and picking some players, he overpaid for everyone and made contracts with players who will be dragging down the roster for years after their productive seasons are behind them. Beckett and Buchholz are two of the most mediocre pitchers paid like aces in all the majors right now, Crawford was apparently coming apart at the seams and no one noticed, Dice-K is just a sick joke. Sox are the new Mets.
 
2012-05-05 03:34:31 PM

Saborlas: You sports nerds care about the weirdest things.


Not really a weird thing to care about. The Red Sox are a huge market team and thus they can afford to pay more to a group of guys who aren't playing than the Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Rays, Pirates, Royals, Astros, Athletics and Padres pay their entire teams. Goes to show there's a much larger margin for error depending on the size of the market.
 
2012-05-05 03:35:41 PM

deadsanta: Beckett and Buchholz are two of the most mediocre pitchers paid like aces in all the majors right now,


Just wondering, how much do you think Buchholz makes?

deadsanta: Crawford was apparently coming apart at the seams and no one noticed


...what?
 
2012-05-05 03:37:13 PM

Dinobot: WTF Indeed: That's what you get for f*cking over Tito and Theo. Karma is a b*tch.

I'd say it's also karma for firing Dr. Morgan as the primary physician of the Red Sox after the 2004 season...


So much this. The Sox could fill a small hospital with the guys they send to the DL every season, who the fark is in charge of conditioning and player health evaluation and why does he still have a job?

Also, pretty much everyone on the DL now was a major Theo "deal" from yesteryear, John Lackey and Dice-K just being the most egregious examples.
 
2012-05-05 03:42:56 PM

deadsanta: WTF Indeed: That's what you get for f*cking over Tito and Theo. Karma is a b*tch.

No, this is why Theo had to go; As good as he was making some trades and picking some players, he overpaid for everyone and made contracts with players who will be dragging down the roster for years after their productive seasons are behind them. Beckett and Buchholz are two of the most mediocre pitchers paid like aces in all the majors right now, Crawford was apparently coming apart at the seams and no one noticed, Dice-K is just a sick joke. Sox are the new Mets.


How could he have known they'd all stop juicing?
 
2012-05-05 03:47:04 PM

DeWayne Mann: deadsanta: Beckett and Buchholz are two of the most mediocre pitchers paid like aces in all the majors right now,

Just wondering, how much do you think Buchholz makes?

deadsanta: Crawford was apparently coming apart at the seams and no one noticed

...what?


Buchholz signed a contract guaranteeing him 30 million over 4 years, with a guaranteed 12 million in 2015, or 60 million in 6 years unless the team pays him out. Sure he's making "only" 3,5 million this season, but it doubles every year for the next three years. That's big money for a questionable pitcher. Crawford obviously came to the Sox injured and played that way last season, I doubt he'll be back on the field before the all-star break. That should have been diagnosed if not at contract signing, then at the least after his "slump" lasted an entire season.

To put this in perpective: James Shields only makes $8m and David Price $5m. Think Clay rates his salary still?
 
2012-05-05 03:53:52 PM

deadsanta: Crawford was apparently coming apart at the seams and no one noticed


Not really. CC had some injury problems in 2008, but lit everything up in 09 & 10. Nothing in his batting profile looked unsustainable when compared to his career numbers. His main problem is probably just his comfort level/ pressing to do too much.

/Sticking him in LF in Fenway also takes away some of his defensive ranging value.
 
2012-05-05 03:56:16 PM

deadsanta: DeWayne Mann: deadsanta: Beckett and Buchholz are two of the most mediocre pitchers paid like aces in all the majors right now,

Just wondering, how much do you think Buchholz makes?

deadsanta: Crawford was apparently coming apart at the seams and no one noticed

...what?

Buchholz signed a contract guaranteeing him 30 million over 4 years, with a guaranteed 12 million in 2015, or 60 million in 6 years unless the team pays him out. Sure he's making "only" 3,5 million this season, but it doubles every year for the next three years. That's big money for a questionable pitcher. Crawford obviously came to the Sox injured and played that way last season, I doubt he'll be back on the field before the all-star break. That should have been diagnosed if not at contract signing, then at the least after his "slump" lasted an entire season.

To put this in perpective: James Shields only makes $8m and David Price $5m. Think Clay rates his salary still?


Buchholz cashed in pretty well after a huge 2010. But he's getting what averages out to a little over 6 per year for five years, I think. The buyouts for 2016 and 2017 total 745,000. That's nothing. If Buccholz turns out to be a superstar, he'll want to be bought out and resigned, probably.

And for a pitcher that's been around a few years, 6m isn't ridiculous. Mike Pelfrey's getting 5.68m this year from arbitration.
 
2012-05-05 03:57:21 PM
After listening to brian cashman and Theo a few times, what I can gather is no TRADE comes out 100%, there is plenty of things behind the doors you don't know about.
Cashman might be a genius for putting together the 1996 Yankees, with deals like Jeter, Mariano, Girardi, Boggs, Williams and O'Neil.

What about the Flops?
Lets start off with 2011/2012 before the history of flops: Soriano out last year? Michael Pineda this year? Are we paying millions for disabled players?!
Jason Giambi?
Jose Contreras?
Raul Mondesi?
Hideki Irabu?

And my personal Favorite: Kei Igawa? Just how many games did he pitch in the MLB before his contract ran out in the minors?

Theo like everyone else has to get players, no GM is perfect when choosing, although boston screwed themselves and fracona so I believe Boston cursed themselves.
 
2012-05-05 04:02:49 PM

Saborlas: You sports nerds care about the weirdest things.


Judging by your Twitter, you seem to hate everything. Why don't you tell us some of your likes? Maybe we can have a breakthrough today.
 
2012-05-05 04:03:12 PM

studleystudstutterson: deadsanta: Crawford was apparently coming apart at the seams and no one noticed

Not really. CC had some injury problems in 2008, but lit everything up in 09 & 10. Nothing in his batting profile looked unsustainable when compared to his career numbers. His main problem is probably just his comfort level/ pressing to do too much.

/Sticking him in LF in Fenway also takes away some of his defensive ranging value.


First off, no one pays $20m for a glove. No one. Secondly, Crawford admitted he was injured as early as July of last season, and played that way the rest of the season. He also had a wrist injury and a pulled hamstring. I find it hard to believe that he was healthy walking in the door with that much wrong with him, but even if he was, the Sox staff and Crawford himself did a piss-poor job of getting him healthy again.

Article link
 
2012-05-05 04:08:08 PM

deadsanta: DeWayne Mann: deadsanta: Beckett and Buchholz are two of the most mediocre pitchers paid like aces in all the majors right now,

Just wondering, how much do you think Buchholz makes?

deadsanta: Crawford was apparently coming apart at the seams and no one noticed

...what?

Buchholz signed a contract guaranteeing him 30 million over 4 years, with a guaranteed 12 million in 2015, or 60 million in 6 years unless the team pays him out. Sure he's making "only" 3,5 million this season, but it doubles every year for the next three years. That's big money for a questionable pitcher. Crawford obviously came to the Sox injured and played that way last season, I doubt he'll be back on the field before the all-star break. That should have been diagnosed if not at contract signing, then at the least after his "slump" lasted an entire season.

To put this in perpective: James Shields only makes $8m and David Price $5m. Think Clay rates his salary still?


You have to evaluate pre-arb/arb-eligible extensions based on when they're signed, and based on what similar players got. Here's a pretty good breakdown:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/09/clay-buchholz-extension-candid at e.html

Shields is a product of Tampa's risky pre-arb extension strategy. While it's worked out for them so far, this is sort of like criticizing the Nats for paying Ryan Zimmerman 14m this year when Evan Longoria only makes $4.5 mil. It ignores a lot of context.

Price, meanwhile, is a first-year arb player, meaning he's making no where near his true market value.

More importantly, I suppose the question I was driving for was "How much does an ace get paid." Right before Buchholz signed, the Dodgers signed Ted Lilly to a 3 year, 33mil contract. Is Lilly paid like an ace?

Finally, this right here is really disingenuous:

deadsanta: 60 million in 6 years unless the team pays him out


What's the buyout cost?

As for Crawford, I'm not sure what you're saying the Sox should've done. Traded him after last season? Cut him? There was absolutely no reason to think he was injured based on his 2011, so I don't know what should've been "diagnosed...at contract signing."
 
2012-05-05 04:10:58 PM

Misconduc: Cashman might be a genius for putting together the 1996 Yankees, with deals like Jeter, Mariano, Girardi, Boggs, Williams and O'Neil.


I'm one of Cashman's biggest fans (which is surprising, as I'm a sox fan), but he didn't put that team together. He wasn't GM until 1998.

DeWayne Mann: his 2011


Err, based on his 2010. I'm a moron.
 
2012-05-05 04:11:24 PM

Dafatone: deadsanta: DeWayne Mann: deadsanta: Beckett and Buchholz are two of the most mediocre pitchers paid like aces in all the majors right now,

Just wondering, how much do you think Buchholz makes?

deadsanta: Crawford was apparently coming apart at the seams and no one noticed

...what?

Buchholz signed a contract guaranteeing him 30 million over 4 years, with a guaranteed 12 million in 2015, or 60 million in 6 years unless the team pays him out. Sure he's making "only" 3,5 million this season, but it doubles every year for the next three years. That's big money for a questionable pitcher. Crawford obviously came to the Sox injured and played that way last season, I doubt he'll be back on the field before the all-star break. That should have been diagnosed if not at contract signing, then at the least after his "slump" lasted an entire season.

To put this in perpective: James Shields only makes $8m and David Price $5m. Think Clay rates his salary still?

Buchholz cashed in pretty well after a huge 2010. But he's getting what averages out to a little over 6 per year for five years, I think. The buyouts for 2016 and 2017 total 745,000. That's nothing. If Buccholz turns out to be a superstar, he'll want to be bought out and resigned, probably.

And for a pitcher that's been around a few years, 6m isn't ridiculous. Mike Pelfrey's getting 5.68m this year from arbitration.


$3.5m 2012
$5.5m 2013
$7.7m 2014
$12.0m 2015

28.7/4 = $7m+ a season. And in regards to Pelfrey: There's a reason why I said "Sox are the new Mets", being the other team that has vastly overpaid for past performance. In Pelfrey's case, I don't think they even got that much performance. David Price = $8.5m a season, now THAT's a great deal. At least we are finally rid of Julio Lugo and JD Drew.

/silver lining
 
2012-05-05 04:12:27 PM

deadsanta: David Price = $8.5m a season, now THAT's a great deal.


...you don't know how arb works, do you?
 
2012-05-05 04:17:09 PM
Big Market Peoples Problems.
 
2012-05-05 04:17:23 PM

deadsanta: Dinobot: WTF Indeed: That's what you get for f*cking over Tito and Theo. Karma is a b*tch.

I'd say it's also karma for firing Dr. Morgan as the primary physician of the Red Sox after the 2004 season...

So much this. The Sox could fill a small hospital with the guys they send to the DL every season, who the fark is in charge of conditioning and player health evaluation and why does he still have a job?

Also, pretty much everyone on the DL now was a major Theo "deal" from yesteryear, John Lackey and Dice-K just being the most egregious examples.


Dice-K spending all his time on the DL is more due to the terrible contract the Sox signed than his conditioning. There's some stupid clause in his contract about not demoting him to the minors except in cases of rehab starts. So whenever he has a few terrible starts, he suddenly gets diagnosed with "shoulder fatigue".
 
2012-05-05 04:19:33 PM

DeWayne Mann: deadsanta: David Price = $8.5m a season, now THAT's a great deal.

...you don't know how arb works, do you?


Don't make this about me, I'm not an expert on arbitration, but Theo's mystique was that he *was* that kind of guy, and I think the actual performance and contracts he generated are clearly not the work of some genius, but a guy willing to pay whatever to sign the players he wanted. That was my whole point: If he was such a wunderkind, he would have gotten deals in place for pitchers at price levels like Price and Shields, but he didn't and we have guys like Lackey for $15m/year who might retire on the DL. That's Theo's legacy, fark all this talk about a curse, he made his own (bad) luck for us for years to come.
 
2012-05-05 04:22:15 PM
Just because I'm fascinated:

Clay Buchholz (27 years old); 7.5 mil a year over 4 years, career ERA+ of 113, extension signed coming off a 187 ERA+ season
John Danks (27 years old): 13mil a year over 5 years, career ERA+ of 108, extension signed coming off a 97 ERA+ season

that's obvious a very, very simplistic way of looking at it, but I really, don't see how Buchholz is "paid like an ace."
 
2012-05-05 04:28:41 PM

deadsanta: DeWayne Mann: deadsanta: Beckett and Buchholz are two of the most mediocre pitchers paid like aces in all the majors right now,

Just wondering, how much do you think Buchholz makes?

deadsanta: Crawford was apparently coming apart at the seams and no one noticed

...what?

Buchholz signed a contract guaranteeing him 30 million over 4 years, with a guaranteed 12 million in 2015, or 60 million in 6 years unless the team pays him out. Sure he's making "only" 3,5 million this season, but it doubles every year for the next three years. That's big money for a questionable pitcher. Crawford obviously came to the Sox injured and played that way last season, I doubt he'll be back on the field before the all-star break. That should have been diagnosed if not at contract signing, then at the least after his "slump" lasted an entire season.

To put this in perpective: James Shields only makes $8m and David Price $5m. Think Clay rates his salary still?


You're comparing his 3.5 million against Shields third year of a deal to buy out his arbitration after his first year in the bigs, way before he would be eligible, and Price's buyout of his first year of arbitration. The point of Bucholz's deal is the same as Shields: to buy out their arbitration years and eliminate the uncertainty from their salary projections. Sometimes a guy out plays his contract like Shields did last year. Sometimes a guy gets way overpaid like Shields was in 2010 when he had a 5.15 ERA and led the league in HR allowed and HR/9 at only 2.5 mil. Even if they wind up below average, you still know what you will have to eat and can work around it.

\typical member of Pink Hat nation, wants to complain about the guy who bought him two WS wins because he couldn't predict the future exactly.
\\At least Yankee fans know how hard it is to buy even one title and appreciate the effort.
 
2012-05-05 04:36:04 PM

deadsanta: I'm not an expert on arbitration


Yes, I've noticed. Let me explain how arbitration works, so you can stop making very dumb statements.

TYPICALLY, for the first 2 to 3 years of a player's career, the team is allowed to set their salary. Typically, this is rather close to the league minimum, though it's rarely the minimum itself (unless the team is the Marlins).

Then they head to arbitration for 3 or 4 years. Unless the team & player agree on an amount, the player's salary is determined by an arbitration group, based on several factors. Two of the most important are service time (first year arb players make less than second year make less than third....) and what other players with similar numbers made at the same level of service time.

David Price was a first year arb player this offseason. He TIED THE RECORD for first year arb players. Are the rays getting a bargain? Yes. But If he continues tying records, he'll make a little less than 7.5 next year, then 12.5 the year after. Then in free agency, he'd probably make close to 20 mil if he continues playing that well.

The Red Sox signed Buchholz to a contract that took over all three 3 arb years AND the first FA year, plus club options for two more FA years. Was this a gamble? Yes. But it's not a bad gamble in the slightest.

Speaking of gambles, James Shields. He signed a contract BEFORE he was arb eligible. The Rays agreed to pay him more than they had to over the first few years. In exchange, he receives slightly less than he was likely to make during the arb years. Again, this has worked out for them, but if Shields had blown out his shoulder the day after signing the contract, they would've wasted a bunch of money.

Buchholz's deal is precisely in line with what similar players received (see the link I posted earlier). The only real risk to it was if he got hurt. He did. But unless you can show they had good reason (in January 2011) to believe that he was a serious injury risk, you can't really criticize the deal for that.

You do not understand what's going on here. I'm not saying that Theo is perfect. But if you're going to criticize him, you need to study up on this stuff first.
 
2012-05-05 05:14:35 PM
This is already feeling like a lost year for the Sox even though it's still early in the season and they're only four games under .500. I'd expect the Sox to be finish out of the playoffs and by Early September, the media will be hunting for Vantine's head.
 
2012-05-05 05:18:59 PM

skinink: the media will be hunting for Vantine's head.


Frankly, they already should be. He's not responsible for most of the problems the team is having, but he's certainly not helping.

Case in point: today's original lineup had Nick Punto on the bench, as usual. When Middlebrooks got injured, Bobby V released a new lineup with Punto leading off.

Your leadoff hitter should be one of your top 3 batters, since they get the most PAs. Unless one of their top 3 batters spends most of his time sitting on his bench, I don't think that's what's going on here.
 
2012-05-05 05:28:41 PM
Fark 'em.

/still only watched about 8 innings total this season.
//8 of them were in two different visits to the bar because the game was on
 
2012-05-05 05:31:45 PM
upload.wikimedia.org
 
2012-05-05 06:00:55 PM
Ellsbury is the only one I would actually take off that list.

Youkilis maybe 2 years ago, he just does not do well down the stretch anymore and has been off this year. His body is slowly wearing down.

Pitchers are horribly overpaid though.
 
2012-05-05 06:11:55 PM

Lligeret: Ellsbury is the only one I would actually take off that list.


Huh?

That's not a sarcastic huh or anything like that, I really have no idea what you're trying to say here.
 
2012-05-05 06:12:57 PM

deadsanta: DeWayne Mann: deadsanta: David Price = $8.5m a season, now THAT's a great deal.

...you don't know how arb works, do you?

Don't make this about me, I'm not an expert on arbitration, but Theo's mystique was that he *was* that kind of guy, and I think the actual performance and contracts he generated are clearly not the work of some genius, but a guy willing to pay whatever to sign the players he wanted. That was my whole point: If he was such a wunderkind, he would have gotten deals in place for pitchers at price levels like Price and Shields, but he didn't and we have guys like Lackey for $15m/year who might retire on the DL. That's Theo's legacy, fark all this talk about a curse, he made his own (bad) luck for us for years to come.


I completely agree with this... let's just look at the 2005 year... signed Matt Clement, signed David Wells, signed Edgar Renteria,

How bout 2006? He traded Bronson Arroyo for Willy Mo Pena.

Renteria played barely a season for the sawx, and so badly they basically paid him to play for the Braves for the next 3 seasons or so.
Matt Clemente was sucktastic (no wonder considering he came from the Cubs)
David Wells was falling apart
Willy Mo Pena was more like Jeremy Giambi than David Ortiz.

Oh yeah, Arroyo has turned out to be a rather serviceable (and rather durable) #2 - #3 starter for the Reds ever since, even posting Roy Oswalt like numbers the season he was traded away (and his arm surviving having Dusty Baker as his manager)

FFS, just look at the Lackey signing: Lackey often biatches about Fenway Park, has horrible ERA at Fenway park (for a reason) and is subpar against AL East teams, Let's sign him as our #2 starter! BRILLIANT!!!!
 
2012-05-05 06:34:40 PM

Dinobot: Matt Clement


Who was fine (and an all-star, if you care about that) until he got hit in the head by a Carl Crawford line drive.

Completely predictible.

Dinobot: David Wells


Who was league average over his Sox tenure, and was paid less than you'd expect an average pitcher to be.

Dinobot: Edgar Renteria


Renteria was, all together, roughly average for the sox, yet was paid much higher.. But he'd had 3 above average years before signing, and 2 after. Hard to say that was predictable.

Dinobot: He traded Bronson Arroyo for Willy Mo Pena.


Bad return for Arroyo, yeah. But you want to talk overpaid? Check out Arroyo's first contract with the Reds.

Dinobot: Willy Mo Pena was more like Jeremy Giambi


Yes, because Jeremy Giambi was such a bad player. Also the two of them are absolutely nothing alike, but ok.

Dinobot: even posting Roy Oswalt like numbers the season he was traded away (and his arm surviving having Dusty Baker as his manager)


If by numbers, you mean ERA, sure. But look under the covers: Arroyo has had one season with a FIP under 4.50 with the Reds (the season in question, which was still in the low 4s). At best, he's average...yet paid a heck of a lot more than Wells was.

Dinobot: FFS, just look at the Lackey signing: Lackey often biatches about Fenway Park, has horrible ERA at Fenway park (for a reason) and is subpar against AL East teams, Let's sign him as our #2 starter! BRILLIANT!!!!


Lackey is pretty indefensible. He was essentially the same player as Burnett, and was given the same contract...except everyone knew Burnett was way over paid. But you know what's funny? Injury concerns aside, he's been a better pitcher for the Sox than Arroyo has been for the Reds.

There are plenty of bad Theo moves. There are plenty of bad moves by every GM. But guys, you gotta try a bit harder than this.
 
2012-05-05 06:38:27 PM

DeWayne Mann: Lligeret: Ellsbury is the only one I would actually take off that list.

Huh?

That's not a sarcastic huh or anything like that, I really have no idea what you're trying to say here.


OHHH I think I'm parsing the sentence wrong. You're saying something like

"Out of all the players on the disabled list, Ellsbury is the only one that I want on the team."

Or maybe

"Out of all the players on the disabled list, Ellsbury is the only one I like at that price."

That still confuses me, because what's wrong with Kalish, Mini-Carp, Bailey.... But it makes a lot more sense than how I was reading it, which was

"If I could, I'd activate Ellsbury from the DL but not anyone else."
 
2012-05-05 08:13:34 PM
How's Carl Crawford working out for you all?

/Go Rays
 
2012-05-05 09:30:05 PM

DeWayne Mann: deadsanta: I'm not an expert on arbitration

Yes, I've noticed. Let me explain how arbitration works, so you can stop making very dumb statements.

TYPICALLY, for the first 2 to 3 years of a player's career, the team is allowed to set their salary. Typically, this is rather close to the league minimum, though it's rarely the minimum itself (unless the team is the Marlins).

Then they head to arbitration for 3 or 4 years. Unless the team & player agree on an amount, the player's salary is determined by an arbitration group, based on several factors. Two of the most important are service time (first year arb players make less than second year make less than third....) and what other players with similar numbers made at the same level of service time.

David Price was a first year arb player this offseason. He TIED THE RECORD for first year arb players. Are the rays getting a bargain? Yes. But If he continues tying records, he'll make a little less than 7.5 next year, then 12.5 the year after. Then in free agency, he'd probably make close to 20 mil if he continues playing that well.

The Red Sox signed Buchholz to a contract that took over all three 3 arb years AND the first FA year, plus club options for two more FA years. Was this a gamble? Yes. But it's not a bad gamble in the slightest.

Speaking of gambles, James Shields. He signed a contract BEFORE he was arb eligible. The Rays agreed to pay him more than they had to over the first few years. In exchange, he receives slightly less than he was likely to make during the arb years. Again, this has worked out for them, but if Shields had blown out his shoulder the day after signing the contract, they would've wasted a bunch of money.

Buchholz's deal is precisely in line with what similar players received (see the link I posted earlier). The only real risk to it was if he got hurt. He did. But unless you can show they had good reason (in January 2011) to believe that he was a serious injury risk, y ...



Yes, yes, because you say so, I am dumb and so on ad hominem nonsense. Here's what you do: Evaluate a player like Buchholz and say "You know what, fark it, he won't be worth what he gets in either a contract or arbitration, so cut him loose and be done with it". The end.

Oh and here are some of the factors that arbitration panels refer to when they set a player salary:

(1) the player's contribution to the club in terms of performance and leadership;
(2) the club's record and its attendance;
(3) any and all of the player's "special accomplishments," including All-Star game appearances, awards won, and postseason performance;
(4) the salaries of comparable players in the player's service-time class and, for players with less than five years of service, the class one year ahead of him.
The parties may not refer to team finances, previous offers made during negotiations, comments from the press or salaries in other sports or occupations.

That was as commonsense and straightforward as you get for a legal explanation, and based on all of the criteria, I think the Sox were morons to pay Buchholz $7m a year for 4 years, winding up with a 12 million payout in 2015 on one previous good year. Insult me all you like, but I think he's not worth it, and the management ought to have realized that he's not worth it. Maybe this year at 3.5, but 5.5 is doubtful, and anything more than that is absurd for as consistent and unfocused a player as Clay has turned out to be.

Avoid arbitration? Fark that, just cut him and let him go FA. Worst case, they'd pay him an inflated salary for one season, probably split with a club they were trading him to. And if they were really smart they would have gotten a contract like the Shields one before this. But they didn't. Because they have been spending like morons, which was my point.

/waits for more internet tough guy legal scholar bullshiat, could care less, management still overpaying for mediocrity.
 
2012-05-05 10:19:16 PM

deadsanta: Yes, yes, because you say so, I am dumb and so on ad hominem nonsense


Apparently I need to explain what ad hominem means too. Ad hominem would be if I said something like "You're wrong because you're a fan of [random team]." I'm saying you're wrong because you clearly have no idea what you're talking about. This would be like you going to a NASA conference and saying that instead of landing on the moon, we should've gone to Venus first because it's nicer there.

deadsanta: Evaluate a player like Buchholz and say "You know what, fark it, he won't be worth what he gets in either a contract or arbitration, so cut him loose and be done with it". The end.


Just so we're clear. You have a player who is 25 (meaning his best years are likely to come), has a career ERA+ of 123, a career FIP 5% better than average and has no injury history to speak of. He's coming off a season with an ERA+ of 187 (leading the league) and a FIP of 3.61 (30th best in the majors). He's a major fan favorite. You're definitely paying him 500K for the next year. You then have 4 options:

A. Wait out the season, send him to arb. He'll get a better than market deal, but it may be close to a record setter.
B. Take the initiative to sign him to a long term deal. It's far, far under market rate as of right now, and if he remains this good, will stay that way. Additionally, if he stays this good, this route will be cheaper than option A.
C. Just cut him and let anyone else have him for free.
D. Trade him.

And you're picking C? I'd love to see you run a team, just to see how your rotation looks. I assume every player makes the league minimum, then is promptly cut.

Even if you knew for a fact that he'd get injured (which, again, he had no history), that's a terrible choice.

deadsanta: I think the Sox were morons to pay Buchholz $7m a year for 4 years, winding up with a 12 million payout in 2015 on one previous good year. Insult me all you like, but I think he's not worth it, and the management ought to have realized that he's not worth it. Maybe this year at 3.5, but 5.5 is doubtful, and anything more than that is absurd for as consistent and unfocused a player as Clay has turned out to be.


This entire section just makes me think you have no idea what other players make. Bruce freaking Chen (career FIP 15% worse than average) signed a 2 year 9 mil deal in the offseason. Mark Buerhle (career FIP 8% better than average) signed a 4 year 58mil deal. Ryan Dempster (career FIP 2% better than average) signed a 1 year 14 mil deal.

If Clay Buchholz (who, for the record, is now 3% better than average) is an average pitcher, he's worth the money. Again, for the third time, go read the link I posted breaking down the case for an extension. The only risk with that deal is an injury, which is what happened. Unless you can show a reason why they should've expected that....

deadsanta: if they were really smart they would have gotten a contract like the Shields one before this. But they didn't.


I guarantee you the Sox approached Buchholz with an offer like that. Most players absolutely hate those deals.

deadsanta: /waits for more internet tough guy legal scholar bullshiat, could care less, management still overpaying for mediocrity.


Seriously, what do you think the going (FA) rate for an AVERAGE pitcher is?
 
2012-05-05 11:03:38 PM

DeWayne Mann: Seriously, what do you think the going (FA) rate for an AVERAGE pitcher is?


Since he obviously won't know, it's somewhere between $8.2 mil for one year (AKA Jeremy Guthrie with the Rockies) and $8.5 mil for one year (AKA Edwin Jackson with the Nats). If you can think of any free agents more average than Jeremy Guthrie or Edwin Jackson, I'd love to hear it.
 
2012-05-05 11:18:03 PM

Misconduc: Cashman might be a genius for putting together the 1996 Yankees, with deals like Jeter, Mariano, Girardi, Boggs, Williams and O'Neil.


Gene Michael was responsible for drafting/signing Jeter, Mariano, Posada, Bernie and Pettitte. He's the guy who pulled the trigger on the trade that sent Roberto Kelly to the Reds for Paul O'Neill. He's the guy who signed Wade Boggs. Bob Watson brought in Girardi.
 
2012-05-05 11:51:35 PM

scandalrag: DeWayne Mann: Seriously, what do you think the going (FA) rate for an AVERAGE pitcher is?

Since he obviously won't know, it's somewhere between $8.2 mil for one year (AKA Jeremy Guthrie with the Rockies) and $8.5 mil for one year (AKA Edwin Jackson with the Nats). If you can think of any free agents more average than Jeremy Guthrie or Edwin Jackson, I'd love to hear it.


Aw, why'd you tell him? I was waiting for him to come up with something like "Well, Ivan Nova's better than average and makes $527,200K, so CLEARLY the going rate is about 500k!"
 
2012-05-06 11:33:33 AM
You "experts" are absurd, quoting ERA+ of Clay Buchholz. You know how many innings this guy pitches every year? I do, because I go to just about every home game, and Buchholz is a headcase who rarely pitches half the season. That's not a subjective opinion either, go look up his career stats, his best year he only pitched like 170 innings, every other season to date he has half a farking season in him. He pitches 80 innings a year, goes on the DL with social anxiety or whatever they call major depression now, and comes back pitching almost randomly.

Seriously, he has ONE season of 173 IP to date, and it was a great one, but on the strength of that, management projects him to be a 12m/year player??? You gotta be kidding me. You know what, I never suggested he be paid 500k, that was you guys, but I thought, and still think, that Buchholz is a $4m/year pitcher, tops, until he strings together some seasons in a row of actually, you know, pitching a whole season.

Who has a contract that looks like Buchholz who I think is actually worth the risk?

I go with Gio Gonzales, the Oakland A's are a team that actually knows how to evaluate pitching performance.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buchhcl01.shtml
Clay Buchholz stats, because anyone can look great over a small sample size.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzagi01.shtml Gio Gonzales, what an actual budding potential ace might look like.
 
2012-05-06 12:15:44 PM

deadsanta: You "experts" are absurd, quoting ERA+ of Clay Buchholz. You know how many innings this guy pitches every year? I do, because I go to just about every home game, and Buchholz is a headcase who rarely pitches half the season. That's not a subjective opinion either, go look up his career stats, his best year he only pitched like 170 innings, every other season to date he has half a farking season in him. He pitches 80 innings a year, goes on the DL with social anxiety or whatever they call major depression now, and comes back pitching almost randomly.

Seriously, he has ONE season of 173 IP to date, and it was a great one, but on the strength of that, management projects him to be a 12m/year player??? You gotta be kidding me. You know what, I never suggested he be paid 500k, that was you guys, but I thought, and still think, that Buchholz is a $4m/year pitcher, tops, until he strings together some seasons in a row of actually, you know, pitching a whole season.

Who has a contract that looks like Buchholz who I think is actually worth the risk?

I go with Gio Gonzales, the Oakland A's are a team that actually knows how to evaluate pitching performance.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buchhcl01.shtml Clay Buchholz stats, because anyone can look great over a small sample size.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzagi01.shtml Gio Gonzales, what an actual budding potential ace might look like.


If you can find a way to turn Clay Buchholz, or most pitchers for that matter, into Gio Gonzalez, go ahead and patent it and make lots of money.

Until then, if you want the Sox to replace Buchholz, you're either replacing him with some AAA scrub (I don't know the farm system right now, but even if there were some guy ready to go, it's not like Buchholz would be the first man knocked out of the rotation), or you're replacing him with some lame-ass league average-or-worse veteran like Jeremy Guthrie for MORE than what Buchholz is making.
 
2012-05-06 01:36:10 PM

deadsanta: but I thought, and still think, that Buchholz is a $4m/year pitcher, tops, until he strings together some seasons in a row of actually, you know, pitching a whole season.


The market completely disagrees with you. You can cry and moan all you want, but that's just the way it is.

Speaking as a Yankees fan, I would absolutely LOVE for you to be the Sox GM.
 
2012-05-06 02:16:40 PM

deadsanta: You "experts" are absurd, quoting ERA+ of Clay Buchholz. You know how many innings this guy pitches every year? I do, because I go to just about every home game, and Buchholz is a headcase who rarely pitches half the season. That's not a subjective opinion either, go look up his career stats, his best year he only pitched like 170 innings, every other season to date he has half a farking season in him. He pitches 80 innings a year, goes on the DL with social anxiety or whatever they call major depression now, and comes back pitching almost randomly.

Seriously, he has ONE season of 173 IP to date, and it was a great one, but on the strength of that, management projects him to be a 12m/year player???


Ok, couple of problems. First, you're ONLY looking at his major league stats. Apparently you forgot that he kept getting sent down to Pawtucket early in his career because the rotation was too full. For instance, he started 2009 in AAA and stayed there until July. He threw almost 200 innings that year.

Second, what you consist in ignoring is that the reason he didn't pitch much last year is due to a back injury. He had never had a back injury in his career. He had had 2 DL stints: a torn fingernail and a pulled hamstring. So, again, unless you can show why the Sox should've known he'd have a back injury, that's not really a valid criticism of the deal.

deadsanta: I go with Gio Gonzales, the Oakland A's are a team that actually knows how to evaluate pitching performance.


Then why'd they trade him away? Well, hold on a second, because I'll tell you.

Dafatone: If you can find a way to turn Clay Buchholz, or most pitchers for that matter, into Gio Gonzalez, go ahead and patent it and make lots of money.


I might actually rather have Buchholz. It's close, and Clay's injuries do throw a wrench into things. But I think there's a lot to fear about Gio's future. I mentioned this elsewhere on here, but to me, Gio looks like a slightly better version of Barry Zito.

(Allow me an aside here. I'm about to use the stat FIP-. I was using it obliquely earlier, but FIP- is sort of like what you'd expect FIP+ to be: it normalizes FIP for era and park. However, it goes the opposite way: while a FIP- of 100 is still average, a FIP- of 95 is 5% BETTER than average. With ERA+, a 95 is 5% worse than average).

I mean, I give you two pitchers (major league stats only). Who would you rather have:

Age 22:
Player A: 92.2 IP, ERA+ of 173, FIP- of 81, K/BB of 1.73
Player B: 34 IP, ERA+ of 54, FIP- of 168, K/BB of 1.36

Age 23:
Player A: 214 IP, ERA+ of 125, FIP- of 82, K/BB of 2.56
Player B: 98.2 IP, ERA+ of 76, FIP- of 104, K/BB of 1.95

Age 24:
Player A: 229.1 IP, ERA+ of 158, FIP- of 90, K/BB of 2.33
Player B: 200.2 IP, ERA+ of 127, FIP- of 93, K/BB of 1.86

Age 25:
Player A: 231.2 IP, ERA+ of 135, FIP- of 91, K/BB of 1.66
Player B: 202 IP, ER+ of 129, FIP- of 93, K/BB of 2.16

Combined stats for all four years:

Player A: 768 IP, ERA+ of 142, FIP- of 87, K/BB of 2.10
Player B: 535.1 IP, ERA+ of 105, FIP- of 100, K/BB of 1.94

One of those guys looks like a rotation anchor for years to come. The other guy looks like Normal McAverageson.

So, obviously, Gio is Player B.

Now, I said that I think Gio is a little better than Zito, even though the career comparison doesn't bear that out. There's a lot going on behind the scenes here that lets me make that claim, and I'd prefer not to break it down because I'm trying to watch baseball, so let's just agree that that's a compliment and move on.

Now, Gio/Buchholz. I've been using FIP- here for a very specific reason: it strips away the huge advantage Gio has in HRs thanks to his ballpark. If Gio & Buchholz were the exact same pitcher, than we'd expect them to have the same FIP-, but for Gio to have a lower FIP.

In reality, they have the same FIP-, but Gio has a lower FIP.

...wait a second.

There are a few other Gio issues, that, again, I'm trying to watch a game but I can get into them later. But the upshot is this: for the most part, Gio is a product of his stadium. He doesn't have that stadium anymore

This is all predicting the future, which none of us to do. Gio could easily go out and become the next Sabathia, and he's having a much better year than Buchholz right now. But, INJURY CONCERNS ASIDE, there are more warning flags for Gio than Buchholz. The Athletics DO evaluate pitchers well...and that's why they traded Gio away.

Note that I'm not trying to trivialize Buchholz's injuries here. That's a major problem. But he definitely appears to have above average talent, so if he misses a few starts a year, that makes him roughly as valuable as an average pitcher.

(Meanwhile, what the crap is going on with the HRs at fenway this year?)
 
2012-05-06 02:19:07 PM

Rex_Banner: Speaking as a Yankees fan, I would absolutely LOVE for you to be the Sox GM.


You're not afraid of the Sox rotation consisting of 3 veterans signed to minor league deals and two rookies made to throw 150% more IP than they did in the minors last year?

What if they went out and got some guy from SD with abnormally low HR rates? Would you be scared then?
 
2012-05-06 02:39:28 PM

deadsanta: on the strength of that, management projects him to be a 12m/year player???


One other thing you tend to ignore:

No. No they don't. They project him to be worth roughly $7.5 mil each season from 2012 to 2015. The deal is backloaded for a bunch of accounting reasons.

Including Clay's 2011 contract, he signed the exact same deal as Ricky Romero (which you'd know if you ever looked at that link). Here are the breakdowns by year (both contracts are guaranteed over 2011-2015)

Clay:

0.555 mil, 3.5 mil (+1 mil signing bonus), 5.5 mil, 7.7 mil, 12 mil, TEAM OPTIONS WITH LOW BUYOUTS

total guaranteed: roughly 30.75 mil over 5 years

Romero:

0.750 mil (+1.25 mil signing bonus), 5mil, 7.5 mil, 7.5 mil, 7.5 mil, TEAM OPTION WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER BUYOUT

total guaranteed: roughly 30.6 mil over 5 years

But here's the thing: by backloading the contract, thanks to inflation, the sox actually pay out a bit less money than the Jays. Additionally, by structuring it as two different deals (.555 for 2011, then 4/30 after that), they were able to take advantage of a couple of luxury tax loopholes and save some money that way.

It's ALL accounting tricks.
 
2012-05-06 03:07:46 PM

DeWayne Mann: Rex_Banner: Speaking as a Yankees fan, I would absolutely LOVE for you to be the Sox GM.

You're not afraid of the Sox rotation consisting of 3 veterans signed to minor league deals and two rookies made to throw 150% more IP than they did in the minors last year?

What if they went out and got some guy from SD with abnormally low HR rates? Would you be scared then?


A little bit actually. Guys can get hurt trotting around the bases that much
 
2012-05-06 03:15:18 PM

Rex_Banner: DeWayne Mann: Rex_Banner: Speaking as a Yankees fan, I would absolutely LOVE for you to be the Sox GM.

You're not afraid of the Sox rotation consisting of 3 veterans signed to minor league deals and two rookies made to throw 150% more IP than they did in the minors last year?

What if they went out and got some guy from SD with abnormally low HR rates? Would you be scared then?

A little bit actually. Guys can get hurt trotting around the bases that much


I think you're ignoring the fact that with all the money the Sox save, they can

um

sign some aging hitters to massive contracts?

lower ticket prices?

i dunno. BUT THEY'RE WASTING MONEY NOW, I KNOW THAT.

(By the way, just because I happened to come across the reference earlier, and now it's incredibly apt:

As of RIGHT THIS SECOND, for 2012, Clay Buchholz has the EXACT SAME xFIP as...Barry Zito.

Clay Buchholz has a 9.09 ERA. Zito has a 1.76.

YAY RANDOM VARIATION!)
 
2012-05-06 03:23:56 PM

DeWayne Mann: deadsanta: ...

I go with Gio Gonzales, the Oakland A's are a team that actually knows how to evaluate pitching performance.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzagi01.shtml Gio Gonzales, what an actual budding potential ace might look like.


You mean the Gio Gonzalez who the A's had to trade because he wanted too much money and got the largest contract ever given an arbitration eligible pitcher at the time? Because maybe there's another Gio Gonzalez who didn't just sign a contract for about twice as much as Bucholtz, playing in the Dominican or Puerto Rico.

As far as a potential ace, I think DeWayne Mann covered that pretty well. He's currently not even the ace of his own team, that's a younger, harder throwing, more accurate pitcher named Strasburg. Maybe you think the Red Sox should have him too, seeing as he was the first overall pick and there was no way in hell they would ever be able to get that pick.

\I think we're getting proof of Paplebon's claim that Philly fans are smarter and know more about baseball than Red Sox fans.
 
2012-05-06 03:32:39 PM

scandalrag: Maybe you think the Red Sox should have him too, seeing as he was the first overall pick and there was no way in hell they would ever be able to get that pick.


Strasburg is too expensive. He's making $3mil this year, while Ross Detwiler is only making 485K yet has a better ERA+. Besides, he's never thrown more than 68 innings in a year. I think he's a 750K pitcher, tops.

scandalrag: \I think we're getting proof of Paplebon's claim that Philly fans are smarter and know more about baseball than Red Sox fans.


:(

/Sox fan
 
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