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(Marketwatch)   When will U.S. house prices recover? Around the same time that you'll get over it   (marketwatch.com) divider line 60
    More: Obvious, Real estate pricing  
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1884 clicks; posted to Business » on 03 May 2012 at 6:32 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-05-03 02:32:10 PM  
When people stop thinking that artificially inflated housing prices due to speculation and the housing bubble of the aughts are what houses should cost.
 
2012-05-03 02:41:31 PM  

Aarontology: When people stop thinking that artificially inflated housing prices due to speculation and the housing bubble of the aughts are what houses should cost.


And that's what we are seeing here in Phoenix. Housing prices are up 20%. I spoke with one guy who does home inspections and have listened to a few others- banks are with holding inventory and those who are buying are paying cash. Sounds like an investor driving bubble, here. And the local rag has a real estate person who loves to jump on the front page of the State section and claim 'now is the bestest time ever to buy!'

Assholes.
 
2012-05-03 02:47:15 PM  

Nadie_AZ: Assholes.


There was a house in my town that's been on the market for years. In 2008 before the crash, it would have been valued at $450,000 (I think that's what their asking price was). Anyway, the person kept it at that price till like 2010 when he realized that the other houses in the neighborhood that were on sale were selling because they were asking like $200K something.

It took him a while to realize that the $450,000 the realtor told him it was worth was basically smoke and mirrors.
 
2012-05-03 02:51:31 PM  

Nadie_AZ: Aarontology: When people stop thinking that artificially inflated housing prices due to speculation and the housing bubble of the aughts are what houses should cost.

And that's what we are seeing here in Phoenix. Housing prices are up 20%. I spoke with one guy who does home inspections and have listened to a few others- banks are with holding inventory and those who are buying are paying cash. Sounds like an investor driving bubble, here. And the local rag has a real estate person who loves to jump on the front page of the State section and claim 'now is the bestest time ever to buy!'

Assholes.


I heard on NPR that Phoenix is one of the areas where prices are recovering the quickest, and yes, many are cash buyers.

When we bought our house here in Maryland last year it had been on the market for a year. Now I am seeing homes in our neighborhood go under contract after a few weeks. However, it seems that most are just families moving in thinking that prices probably won't get lower.
 
2012-05-03 03:03:44 PM  

TheYeti: Nadie_AZ: Aarontology: When people stop thinking that artificially inflated housing prices due to speculation and the housing bubble of the aughts are what houses should cost.

And that's what we are seeing here in Phoenix. Housing prices are up 20%. I spoke with one guy who does home inspections and have listened to a few others- banks are with holding inventory and those who are buying are paying cash. Sounds like an investor driving bubble, here. And the local rag has a real estate person who loves to jump on the front page of the State section and claim 'now is the bestest time ever to buy!'

Assholes.

I heard on NPR that Phoenix is one of the areas where prices are recovering the quickest, and yes, many are cash buyers.


That bubble isn't going to last long when these investors realize that people are moving OUT of Phoenix. Empty houses are everywhere.
 
2012-05-03 03:15:23 PM  

ecmoRandomNumbers: That bubble isn't going to last long when these investors realize that people are moving OUT of Phoenix. Empty houses are everywhere.


Strip malls are emptying out as well. Malls. Unfinished structures (I love the one by the Chandler Fashion Mall- an empty shell that was going to be a hotel- right across the freeway from a hotel that is being built). It's pretty sad.
 
2012-05-03 06:01:51 PM  
Impossible. That would mean it recovered in April of 2007.

/was over it quickly
 
2012-05-03 06:22:06 PM  
I just replaced my AC so it will probably be about 5 years before I can recover the cost anyway.
 
2012-05-03 06:56:20 PM  
Should housing prices recover? All the 'worth' these houses have just hide the fact that American wages have stagnated for the last forty years. It's just another big scam that hides that people are making jackshiat and can't afford to do anything anymore without some source of credit.
 
2012-05-03 06:56:49 PM  

Aarontology: Nadie_AZ: Assholes.

There was a house in my town that's been on the market for years. In 2008 before the crash, it would have been valued at $450,000 (I think that's what their asking price was). Anyway, the person kept it at that price till like 2010 when he realized that the other houses in the neighborhood that were on sale were selling because they were asking like $200K something.

It took him a while to realize that the $450,000 the realtor told him it was worth was basically smoke and mirrors.


How do you know it was the agents suggested list price on the house, and not a dumbass stubborn owner not listening to their agents advice to drop the price to remain competitive?
 
2012-05-03 06:58:02 PM  
Managed to sell our house in 2010 at $10K lower than what we bought it for in 2006. Now Zillow claims it's down to $45K lower yet, and still dropping.

Escaped from PA.
 
2012-05-03 06:59:11 PM  
That's like asking when the snake oil guys are coming back. My ligaments!

Nothing sadder than a sucker begging to get farked over again.
 
2012-05-03 07:04:05 PM  

Guntram Shatterhand: Should housing prices recover? All the 'worth' these houses have just hide the fact that American wages have stagnated for the last forty years. It's just another big scam that hides that people are making jackshiat and can't afford to do anything anymore without some source of credit.


No kidding. And what happens when the Boomers try shedding their McMansions to move into smaller retirement homes? I'm still amazed at my hometown, a small city whose population hasn't grown in 20 years, yet new housing developments have sprawled miles into the countryside. Many of the newer developments are mostly empty.
 
2012-05-03 07:05:23 PM  

Guntram Shatterhand: Should housing prices recover? All the 'worth' these houses have just hide the fact that American wages have stagnated for the last forty years. It's just another big scam that hides that people are making jackshiat and can't afford to do anything anymore without some source of credit.


At least the credit is out there for those that can use it constructively. For some reason, my bank keeps calling me unsolicited to get me to take on a credit card. Bastards. Do not want debt. I'll pay cash up front until I have an income that will let me cover a mortgage. Then I'll establish credit and save until my credit score is worthwhile so I have money for a decent down payment. Then I'll take on debt. Not before.

Bottles my mind that every day on the way to work I pass by multiple signs reading "0 Down VA Home Loans" with a phone number. I call them once a week to ask them why they hate America.
 
2012-05-03 07:05:29 PM  

Guntram Shatterhand: Should housing prices recover? All the 'worth' these houses have just hide the fact that American wages have stagnated for the last forty years. It's just another big scam that hides that people are making jackshiat and can't afford to do anything anymore without some source of credit.


Nope. Housing prices in most areas should not recover. They were inflated by people buying homes they couldn't really afford thanks in part to over-zealous lenders in a booming economy. Like you said, housing values need to drop to affordable levels at today's stagnant wages. As long as lenders remain under tight control as they are now values won't inflate. Investors will create a bubble, but it will be short lived. Also, there are Millions more homes prepping to hit the market increasing supply which will only drive values down. Supply and demand...more supply, little demand.
 
2012-05-03 07:08:59 PM  
counterpoint:
www.motherjones.com
(chart is hotlinked- sorry)

Can We Please Stop Saying the Construction Sector is Bloated? It's Not

"the easiest way is to simply look at the size of the housing boom of the aughts and the housing bust of 2008-12. That's the chart on the right, and its story is pretty obvious: the housing bust has been way bigger than the boom. For a year or two after 2008, you could plausibly argue that we had too much housing, which meant construction workers needed to find jobs elsewhere, but after that it just became a lazy mental tic that got repeated endlessly by people who hadn't taken a look at the actual numbers lately. If you do, it's obvious that we now need more housing, not less.

And yet, despite the fact that there's a lot of pent-up demand for housing, we haven't seen a real recovery in the housing market. That's a sign not of structural problems, but of the fact that people don't have enough money and bank credit is tight. That's the problem we need to address." -- Kevin Drum
 
2012-05-03 07:10:36 PM  

T-Servo: Guntram Shatterhand: Should housing prices recover? All the 'worth' these houses have just hide the fact that American wages have stagnated for the last forty years. It's just another big scam that hides that people are making jackshiat and can't afford to do anything anymore without some source of credit.

No kidding. And what happens when the Boomers try shedding their McMansions to move into smaller retirement homes? I'm still amazed at my hometown, a small city whose population hasn't grown in 20 years, yet new housing developments have sprawled miles into the countryside. Many of the newer developments are mostly empty.


The market will dip when that occurs, but we're probably a decade or two out before it hits hard. That means there's entry of time between now and then to have another bubble!
 
2012-05-03 07:13:44 PM  

T-Servo: Managed to sell our house in 2010 at $10K lower than what we bought it for in 2006. Now Zillow claims it's down to $45K lower yet, and still dropping.

Escaped from PA.


Zillow is worthless for estimating home values, but you did the right thing selling before the market really tanked.
 
2012-05-03 07:25:42 PM  

StopLurkListen: counterpoint:

(chart is hotlinked- sorry)

Can We Please Stop Saying the Construction Sector is Bloated? It's Not

"the easiest way is to simply look at the size of the housing boom of the aughts and the housing bust of 2008-12. That's the chart on the right, and its story is pretty obvious: the housing bust has been way bigger than the boom. For a year or two after 2008, you could plausibly argue that we had too much housing, which meant construction workers needed to find jobs elsewhere, but after that it just became a lazy mental tic that got repeated endlessly by people who hadn't taken a look at the actual numbers lately. If you do, it's obvious that we now need more housing, not less.

And yet, despite the fact that there's a lot of pent-up demand for housing, we haven't seen a real recovery in the housing market. That's a sign not of structural problems, but of the fact that people don't have enough money and bank credit is tight. That's the problem we need to address." -- Kevin Drum


No.
 
2012-05-03 07:31:22 PM  
Yeah, "never". Heard that in '87, again in '98. Bought a house in Dec. 10 for $150K. It assessed at $225K last month. All it took was a new roof, and a whole lot of spackle and painting.
 
kab
2012-05-03 07:38:32 PM  
Home prices dropping IS recovery, subby.

Your hastily thrown together collection of particle board, sheet rock nails (lmao) and granite isn't worth nearly what you think it is.
 
2012-05-03 07:46:52 PM  

Nadie_AZ: ecmoRandomNumbers: That bubble isn't going to last long when these investors realize that people are moving OUT of Phoenix. Empty houses are everywhere.

Strip malls are emptying out as well. Malls. Unfinished structures (I love the one by the Chandler Fashion Mall- an empty shell that was going to be a hotel- right across the freeway from a hotel that is being built). It's pretty sad.


I live right by that. It sure does make Price/Frye/Ellis less crowded to drive through though!
 
2012-05-03 07:51:17 PM  
"Oh noes! You mean I'll have to keep living here?!"
 
2012-05-03 08:05:41 PM  
I don't know subby, but I've read that we've hit the bottom of the market now every 3 months since 2009.
 
2012-05-03 08:19:38 PM  
I bought a house a month and a half ago, and I could not be happier. Great price, great house, great neighbors. And I never have to live in farking Kansas again! Best of all!
 
2012-05-03 08:48:12 PM  

jjwars1: T-Servo: Managed to sell our house in 2010 at $10K lower than what we bought it for in 2006. Now Zillow claims it's down to $45K lower yet, and still dropping.

Escaped from PA.

Zillow is worthless for estimating home values, but you did the right thing selling before the market really tanked.


In that case I think it's mostly correct. It was the more expensive house on the street (usually a bad thing) and the median sale price in the town has kept dropping over the past two years.
 
2012-05-03 09:22:00 PM  
All I know is that we've lost 2 houses to bidding wars here in eastern ma in the last month.

/stay within your means
 
2012-05-03 09:34:07 PM  
There's never been a better time to buy!
 
2012-05-03 10:11:29 PM  

highvaluetarget: All I know is that we've lost 2 houses to bidding wars here in eastern ma in the last month.

/stay within your means


Ugh. I am sorry. That sucks.
 
2012-05-03 10:40:34 PM  
Laughing at y'all from the 28th floor

/I can see your debt from here
 
2012-05-03 10:51:06 PM  

mccallcl: Laughing at y'all from the 28th floor
/I can see your debt from here


Why would you want to be on the 28th floor? God that sounds awful.
 
2012-05-03 11:11:36 PM  
Hopefully, housing prices will never recover. Why would I want my property taxes to go up?
 
2012-05-03 11:17:08 PM  

highvaluetarget: All I know is that we've lost 2 houses to bidding wars here in eastern ma in the last month.

/stay within your means


My mom lost 3 to bidding wars before she decided to build a new one. I've lost 2. In Dallas. I just cannot justify paying 10%+ more than the appraised value
 
2012-05-04 12:07:29 AM  

DrPainMD: Hopefully, housing prices will never recover. Why would I want my property taxes to go up?


Not a homeowner, are you? Your taxes will go up no matter what your house is worth.
 
2012-05-04 12:13:05 AM  
Now is the perfect time to buy! Take this lovely location as an example. It's a nice open floor plan. Of course, the reason it's so open is because it flooded in the 2010 flood and the owner had to remove all the walls from the first floor. And of course, it hasn't been worked on since. But think of all the fun you'll have checking all the electrical, plumbing and putting up your own drywall. Or maybe leave it this way. Who doesn't like having the people at the front door able to watch you poop? It's close to shopping, lovely restaurants, and of course, the river. Just a hair shy of $70K. You'll never get a better deal than this, because we don't have the sense to lower the price. Ever. We'll just leave it sitting like this for two more years on the hope that the housing market inflates to insane levels.

/Cash only, cause you'll never get a mortgage!
 
2012-05-04 01:00:03 AM  
Yeah got a call from a "friend" who wants me to invest in a property for sale (townhouse) and rent it out.

Rent = 1700/month (probably)
Mortgage & HOA & taxes = $2100 (with 20% down)

So... I'm putting out more than I make? More than the property might increase for?

This is how realtors view a "good deal".

/told him to never speak to me about an investment in realty if he wanted to remain friends
 
2012-05-04 02:55:55 AM  

neilbradley: DrPainMD: Hopefully, housing prices will never recover. Why would I want my property taxes to go up?

Not a homeowner, are you? Your taxes will go up no matter what your house is worth.


Yes, I'm a home owner (as in, the mortgage is paid off and the house is mine free and clear). My property taxes have been going down with housing values.
 
2012-05-04 05:11:25 AM  

Nadie_AZ: highvaluetarget: All I know is that we've lost 2 houses to bidding wars here in eastern ma in the last month.

/stay within your means

Ugh. I am sorry. That sucks.


Thanks. Things do happen for a reason as they say. Our perfect home came on the market Sunday, saw it Monday. We made an offer that the seller accepted! Closing in a month.
 
2012-05-04 05:15:02 AM  

there their theyre: highvaluetarget: All I know is that we've lost 2 houses to bidding wars here in eastern ma in the last month.

/stay within your means

My mom lost 3 to bidding wars before she decided to build a new one. I've lost 2. In Dallas. I just cannot justify paying 10%+ more than the appraised value


One of the hardest aspects of home buying is keeping emotions out of it. Good luck. Your perfect home WILL come along...
 
2012-05-04 07:55:56 AM  

DrPainMD: neilbradley: DrPainMD: Hopefully, housing prices will never recover. Why would I want my property taxes to go up?

Not a homeowner, are you? Your taxes will go up no matter what your house is worth.

Yes, I'm a home owner (as in, the mortgage is paid off and the house is mine free and clear). My property taxes have been going down with housing values.


Yeah I love getting that check back from my mortgage company when taxes go down. I love my home. Its been a labor of love the past few years, it was built in 1980 and I have alreay replaced the windows, water heater, AC, and washer and dryer. They were all original so I knew they had to be replaced. My next big project is the bathroom. I would have started it by now but a burst pipe ate into my budget.
 
2012-05-04 08:17:03 AM  

meathome: Rent = 1700/month (probably)
Mortgage & HOA & taxes = $2100 (with 20% down)

So... I'm putting out more than I make? More than the property might increase for?


As long as the rent is more than the monthly HOA + taxes + mortgage interest, you could still come out ahead in the long run. However you would also have to budget for repairs, risk of deadbeat tenants, market fluctuations, etc.
 
2012-05-04 08:37:33 AM  

StopLurkListen: "the easiest way is to simply look at the size of the housing boom of the aughts and the housing bust of 2008-12. That's the chart on the right, and its story is pretty obvious: the housing bust has been way bigger than the boom. For a year or two after 2008, you could plausibly argue that we had too much housing, which meant construction workers needed to find jobs elsewhere, but after that it just became a lazy mental tic that got repeated endlessly by people who hadn't taken a look at the actual numbers lately. If you do, it's obvious that we now need more housing, not less.

And yet, despite the fact that there's a lot of pent-up demand for housing, we haven't seen a real recovery in the housing market. That's a sign not of structural problems, but of the fact that people don't have enough money and bank credit is tight. That's the problem we need to address." -- Kevin Drum


Interesting. I've never really looked closely at that economic figure.

Here's another graph of it. Note I added a variable "10" so the scale will be from 0 to max, which I believe gives a better perspective.

research.stlouisfed.org

Where
Fields of mass produced cookie cutter McMansions
Where
\o/
|
/\
 
2012-05-04 08:42:13 AM  

meathome: Yeah got a call from a "friend" who wants me to invest in a property for sale (townhouse) and rent it out.

Rent = 1700/month (probably)
Mortgage & HOA & taxes = $2100 (with 20% down)

So... I'm putting out more than I make? More than the property might increase for?

This is how realtors view a "good deal".

/told him to never speak to me about an investment in realty if he wanted to remain friends


That $2100 is pretty much locked in for 30 years, after which disappears (well, drops to just HOA and taxes). The rent will generally adjust with inflation.

Now recompute.
 
2012-05-04 08:48:07 AM  
FYI, here is housing starts per population, which I think is a more relevant trend (it's not hugely different)

research.stlouisfed.org
 
2012-05-04 09:33:07 AM  
The unemployment report that just came out shows the so called recovery is dead. House prices are going down. Obama learned nothing from 2010.
 
2012-05-04 10:33:27 AM  

TheYeti: Nadie_AZ: Aarontology: When people stop thinking that artificially inflated housing prices due to speculation and the housing bubble of the aughts are what houses should cost.

And that's what we are seeing here in Phoenix. Housing prices are up 20%. I spoke with one guy who does home inspections and have listened to a few others- banks are with holding inventory and those who are buying are paying cash. Sounds like an investor driving bubble, here. And the local rag has a real estate person who loves to jump on the front page of the State section and claim 'now is the bestest time ever to buy!'

Assholes.

I heard on NPR that Phoenix is one of the areas where prices are recovering the quickest, and yes, many are cash buyers.

When we bought our house here in Maryland last year it had been on the market for a year. Now I am seeing homes in our neighborhood go under contract after a few weeks. However, it seems that most are just families moving in thinking that prices probably won't get lower.


Canadians with cash from their bubble, which hasn't popped yet.
 
2012-05-04 11:34:24 AM  
If by "recover," you mean "go back to the same batshiat insane, outrageously inflated levels they used to be at," I hope never.
 
2012-05-04 11:40:32 AM  

Unimpressed Man: credit card


you know that part of your credit core is how long you've had credit right?
 
2012-05-04 12:11:18 PM  
I paid $150k for my house in 2009 which previously sold for $400k in 2005. I thought it was worth about $200k at the time, so I got a great deal. I still think it's worth about $200k today. It will never be worth $400k again, at least not for a few decades.
 
2012-05-04 12:52:16 PM  

DrPainMD: neilbradley: DrPainMD: Hopefully, housing prices will never recover. Why would I want my property taxes to go up?

Not a homeowner, are you? Your taxes will go up no matter what your house is worth.

Yes, I'm a home owner (as in, the mortgage is paid off and the house is mine free and clear). My property taxes have been going down with housing values.


Yes, my taxes have also been going down

highvaluetarget: All I know is that we've lost 2 houses to bidding wars here in eastern ma in the last month.

/stay within your means


YES. Stay within your means! Don't let yourself get emotionally involved in the bidding war hype. You will have buyer remorse if that occurs. It took me 3 years of competing with other buyers until I finally found the home. Sometimes you have to find it the same day it lists and have an offer put in to get in before other buyers have a chance.
 
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