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(Forbes)   In the next 5 - 8 yrs. Google and Facebook could just be gone. Not bankrupt gone, but MySpace gone   ( forbes.com) divider line
    More: Obvious, Google, MySpace, Facebook  
•       •       •

8724 clicks; posted to Geek » on 03 May 2012 at 2:02 PM (5 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-05-03 07:16:27 PM  
Im sorry, i stopped reading when they questioned why amazon isnt going into a more social type business model.

"Why has amazon done so little in social?"

Prolly because they're trying to farking sell products. not get you to create a profile to add friends, and post hilarious pictures of you and your friends..

/end rant
 
2012-05-03 07:26:46 PM  

Otto_E_Rodika: Facebook is the defacto portal throughout the internet for a vast majority of users. Almost every major site uses some type of Facebook integration for sharing and logging in. Part of Zuckerberg's genius has been in making sure that Facebook has its fingers in a million pies around the web. Its not going anywhere.


I personally refuse to comment on sites that require facebook authentication... especially political sites.

Given business's deisre/ability to gain access to web-based sites like these for vetting employees, there is a huge risk that this kind of privacy loss entails.

Hell, look at how the first thing the media (and we) do when some unlucky sap lands in the news for doing something wrong... within a couple minutes people are linking to their facebook account and the media are publishing pictures pulled from their profiles. Farking scary!
 
2012-05-03 07:33:21 PM  
Facebook is already losing ground to pintrest, as well as people are just getting tired of Facebook.

I'm already down to checking it once a day. I realized my feed is all ads recently, but it's from all from companies I "liked", and the ads are status updates.
 
2012-05-03 07:37:01 PM  
Google has patents and its finger in everything.

Myspace and Facebook are souped up AOL profiles.

Twitter is an IM away message queue.
 
2012-05-03 07:50:42 PM  

impaler: HempHead: That is Forbes point. Google has reached its peak. Growth has stopped.

Google is desperate to find another revenue source.

To expect growth forever is foolish.


That is the basis of Wall Street.
 
2012-05-03 07:52:19 PM  

HempHead: impaler: HempHead: That is Forbes point. Google has reached its peak. Growth has stopped.

Google is desperate to find another revenue source.

To expect growth forever is foolish.

That is the basis of Wall Street.


That is the basis of modern economics. Period.
 
2012-05-03 07:56:53 PM  

falkone32: EatHam
HempHead
You guys are missing the point. Google is not a search company( any more than Amazon is a book seller). Google makes money by selling ads.

And airlines make money by selling tickets. But if they don't transport people, then nobody will buy tickets. If Google does not provide useful information, then nobody wi ...


That is why if something like Siri ever catches on and less people go to Google.com to search and see the search results surrounded by ads, then Google will die quickly. Very quickly.

Google is a one trick pony that can be killed by a single app.
 
2012-05-03 08:05:39 PM  
.We're talking about people that don't use Flash if their lives depend on it.

Yah... no.
 
2012-05-03 08:16:46 PM  

T-Servo: Larofeticus: Those babies will not be using their parents social network.

I've used Facebook much less since my parents signed on. And once FB timelines me, I'll use it like I use Linkedin, as a sometimes address book.


Once you learn how to determine who sees what and what you see the parent thing is no longer a dealbraker.
 
2012-05-03 08:21:36 PM  
*reads*

No, get over yourself mobile pundits.

PROTIP: As long as mobile platforms are restrictive and closed, there will be a huge market for more open, user influenced platforms.
 
2012-05-03 08:28:55 PM  

SharkTrager: T-Servo: Larofeticus: Those babies will not be using their parents social network.

I've used Facebook much less since my parents signed on. And once FB timelines me, I'll use it like I use Linkedin, as a sometimes address book.

Once you learn how to determine who sees what and what you see the parent thing is no longer a dealbraker.


I know how privacy layers work, but that can't stop my mom from sending friend requests to my friends. That's a sign to move on.
 
2012-05-03 08:36:51 PM  
Any article that tries to quantify such meaningless terms as "web 1.0" and "web 2.0" should be completely disregarded.
 
2012-05-03 08:49:07 PM  

Ed Willy: Facebook's IPO will probably be its undoing. It will have to relentlessly pursue more profit at the expense of its basic utility (connecting people together,). I can see it going out of style when the Timeline becomes clogged with advertising and every action you take in monetized. Some new thing will come along and wipe it away. Not Google+, which seems like more Spam than actual people.


This sums up what I'm thinking. Myspace went away ultimately because it became messy and no longer useful, due to horrid design constraints and bad spam controls. Facebook has the advantage of building up an incredible user base and integrating with smartphones. And despite its constant changes, at its score it's still useable for what it exists for. But once it starts truly getting ridiculous, the moment ads start appearing where friends' posts should be, those users WILL move elsewhere and that "elsewhere" will have appeared by then.
 
2012-05-03 08:55:11 PM  

Gotfire: Without facebook, how will I ever see how Aiden, Jaden, Braydon, Caden, Raiden, or Madison are growing up? I mean... without daily pictures of them eating or wearing various halloween costumes, I don't think I could survive.

/That's all facebook is. A farking medium for people to share pictures of their kids and awaiting praise from their "friends"


THIS

Should rename it Babybook. Hey former ex girlfiend from high school years ago, I don't need to see another picture of your kid eating cheerios. Or to hear how tired you are and how you just want to read one of your Twilight books. Or see another one of those forwarded GIFs of some random sappy positivity message to help you feel good about your boring minivan Xanax fueled life.

/not bitter
//I do have friends, really
 
2012-05-03 09:37:48 PM  
mrjared I honestly didn't think Myspace would have gone as fast as it did. I guess it's still there, but it certainly isn't the same.

not if yer a gangbanger...
 
2012-05-03 09:42:50 PM  

T-Servo: SharkTrager: T-Servo: Larofeticus: Those babies will not be using their parents social network.

I've used Facebook much less since my parents signed on. And once FB timelines me, I'll use it like I use Linkedin, as a sometimes address book.

Once you learn how to determine who sees what and what you see the parent thing is no longer a dealbraker.

I know how privacy layers work, but that can't stop my mom from sending friend requests to my friends. That's a sign to move on.


I think you can block who she sees as your friends. That and, your friends say yes?
 
2012-05-03 10:04:31 PM  

SharkTrager: I think you can block who she sees as your friends. That and, your friends say yes?


If I get to the point where I have to block my friends from seeing one another, it's lost its usefulness to me. And yes, one or two did say yes because they're the sort to accept any friend request. But others wrote to me: "Dude! What's your mom doing trying to friend me?!"

My point was that, as much embarrassment as I feel, I can only imagine tweens fleeing the site if they see old people (which would include me) hanging around. Something new is always around the corner when it's a fad. Google is actually useful.

/still remember when pundits claimed Gopher wasn't going anywhere, because it was much more stable and faster than this new-fangled "web".
 
2012-05-03 10:10:48 PM  
The Macintosh uses an experimental pointing device called a "mouse." There is no evidence that people want to use these things.

John Dvorak
 
2012-05-03 11:07:18 PM  
Google will be around, if only because of it's probable ties with our government. Facebook will either be still as strong, or it will have folded shortly after the investors start trying to call more of the shots (or zuckerberg bought out more friends' companies)
 
2012-05-03 11:17:01 PM  
Could care less about Facebook, I'd love to see it go just to see what all these sites who have built themselves around Facebook will do.

Google, as far as their search engine (which is all I use anyway) will be around for quit a while.
 
2012-05-03 11:25:55 PM  
Google will be around- they're pouring R&D money into self driving cars, and are starting to lock up patents. Think about what that field will be worth. Android's not going anywhere, and even if it doesn't make much money the entire point is to drive traffic towards Google. There are a lot of folks out there moving to them for services like GMail as well- a recent survey showed that the majority of colleges similar to the one I work at have outsourced their student email to GMail.

The idea that Siri will suddenly make Google obsolete is rather silly. There's nobody at Google smart enough to make a voice interface to their search engine?

Facebook, OTOH, I'm not so sure. It's totally dependent on network effects- people are on Facebook because everyone else is on FB. If a core group of "cool" users move away to a new service you could see FB go the way of MySpace damn quick. That said, it's going to have to be a major movement- those network effects do make them tough to dislodge
 
2012-05-03 11:26:38 PM  
More than 95% of Google's income comes from one stream - Advertising. Even though they come up with all these other products, none of them are generating much in the way of revenue. They make fark all on Google Docs and lose money on Android and Chrome. Apple has multiple revenue streams - iTunes, iPhone, Desktops, Laptops, iPad, iPod. Microsoft has something like 7 separate products that earn over a billion a year (Client / Server / Office / Exchange / SQL Server / XBox / System Center)

It won't require someone coming up with a better Search engine to wipe Google out - a better way of delivering advertisements on the Internet will do that.
 
2012-05-04 12:18:53 AM  

Contents Under Pressure: Google's still going to be around. It's already been around for a very long time and does too many things to just wink out. Myspace was very limited in what it did. Facebook? Not sure. I would not totally disagree with the journo on that one.


Done in one, Google provides a service that people are familiar with and its a verb, you dont search for something, you google-it so I dont see it going completely away. FB maybe, I lost interest in FB about 3 days after I signed up, the only thing I put up there are pics from trips over seas and of the little kitten we found in our yard that was barely alive at 4 weeks old.

Glockenspiel Hero: The idea that Siri will suddenly make Google obsolete is rather silly. There's nobody at Google smart enough to make a voice interface to their search engine?


The really funny thing to me is that they have a voice interface on android phones that works just as well, its just like siri, in a few cars or loud area they are useless and personally I would rather type than talk to a machine.

narkor: Apple has multiple revenue streams


Those are being cut into by other avenues and now they have that price fixing shiat to deal with, also we found out what happened the last time Jobs left apple, he cant come back to save them this time.
 
2012-05-04 12:43:46 AM  

mjjt: So

Google
Facebook
Forbes

which is most likely to disappear first?


Well, after reading that article, I assume Forbes became irrelevant several years ago.
 
2012-05-04 12:46:28 AM  
Facebook? Perhaps. But not Google. The only "gone" Google might be is AT&T gone.
 
2012-05-04 01:20:26 AM  
Good piece (I largely agree) but the author omitted the most important site: will FARK be here in 8 years?

/Yes, but it's gotta morph, right Drew?
 
2012-05-04 02:25:50 AM  
Rebuttal piece

http://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeanders/2012/05/02/lift-that-curse-m o bile-wont-kill-google-or-facebook/
 
2012-05-04 04:15:53 AM  

wildcardjack: I don't know what to use Facebook for, but Google is now a verb.

I can't think of any other companies that have done that trick, at least not in a matter of a few years. Sandwich sort of did that, but I bet people have been making bread pile-ups for ages.


Photoshop, TiVo, Astroturf, Saran Wrap, Scotch Tape, Sellotape, Sharpie, Perspex, Bubble Wrap, Super Glue, Taser, Velcro, Videotape, and Zipper.
 
2012-05-04 05:28:01 AM  

DrGunsforHands: wildcardjack: I don't know what to use Facebook for, but Google is now a verb.

I can't think of any other companies that have done that trick, at least not in a matter of a few years. Sandwich sort of did that, but I bet people have been making bread pile-ups for ages.

Photoshop, TiVo, Astroturf, Saran Wrap, Scotch Tape, Sellotape, Sharpie, Perspex, Bubble Wrap, Super Glue, Taser, Velcro, Videotape, and Zipper.


Hmm... Adobe, TiVo, Astroturf, SC Johnson, 3M, Sellotape (regionalism), Rubbermaid, Rohm and Haas, Sealed Air Corporation, a marketer of cyanoacrylate, Thomas A Swift's Electric Rifle, Velcro, Ampex, Universal Fastener Company

Most of the PRODUCTS you mention are not the names of the company. But I'll give you credit, some of those are verbs now. I just didn't give it much time to brew in my mind, but most of those I know by more proper name. It's cyanoacrylate glue, not Super. And generic isn't the same as specific. You don't Google something on Yahoo. And I've never called it Saran Wrap, it's plastic wrap.

And TASER needs to watch themselves before they become a generic term.
 
2012-05-04 08:40:18 AM  

DrGunsforHands: wildcardjack: I don't know what to use Facebook for, but Google is now a verb.

I can't think of any other companies that have done that trick, at least not in a matter of a few years. Sandwich sort of did that, but I bet people have been making bread pile-ups for ages.

Photoshop, TiVo, Astroturf, Saran Wrap, Scotch Tape, Sellotape, Sharpie, Perspex, Bubble Wrap, Super Glue, Taser, Velcro, Videotape, and Zipper.


No mention of white out ??
 
2012-05-04 09:16:53 AM  

wildcardjack: I can't think of any other companies that have done that trick,


People refer to Tractor Trailer trucks as "Mack Trucks"

People still refer to going snowmobiling as going "Skidoo'ing".

There are quite a few if you stop and think about it.
Google is a relatively new one though, and they did a good job in the name choice.
The name flows as a verb.
 
2012-05-04 09:49:58 AM  

mat catastrophe: I just want suck.com to return.


Much love, old-timer.

So MySpace is "dead"? Alexa has it ranked 100-something most popular site in the world.
 
2012-05-04 10:13:44 AM  

BHShaman: wildcardjack: I can't think of any other companies that have done that trick,

People refer to Tractor Trailer trucks as "Mack Trucks"

People still refer to going snowmobiling as going "Skidoo'ing".

There are quite a few if you stop and think about it.
Google is a relatively new one though, and they did a good job in the name choice.
The name flows as a verb.


(some of these are product names as opposed to corporate, but the point stands)

Kleenex
Frisbee
Band-Aid
 
2012-05-04 10:42:52 AM  
Another reason Facebook is going to die/settle down into an extremely low plateau is the word's out about it. When people fully realize their life will be screwed over by employers checking employee's lives out and punishing them for what was originally a message board to jack around with your friends, people will post only nebulous positive things and/or baby pictures.

We've seen this happening a lot so far.

Within a few years many people will move to the next secret thing to screw around with their buddies and FB will will "that lame site gramma uses to talk about the grandkids".

And I have yet to see a useful corporate page. They're all trying to shoehorn a viable website into a craptacular social media structure in order to look cool.

The whole thing is a Ponzie scheme of fleeting hipness. Woe to all the suckers who buy the stocks--I hope they all lose their financial a*ses.
 
2012-05-04 10:59:24 AM  
Google? No. Very useful service, very hard market to enter.

Facebook? It could become unfashionable and dead within months. A stream of people start switching to another network because it's the new cool thing and it'll be toast.
 
2012-05-04 12:02:39 PM  
Google? No. They have Microsoft-like depth and broadness.

Facebook? Yeah. They're f*cked as soon as the hipsters lead everyone elsewhere.
 
2012-05-04 12:03:45 PM  

farkeruk: Google? No. Very useful service, very hard market to enter.

Facebook? It could become unfashionable and dead within months. A stream of people start switching to another network because it's the new cool thing and it'll be toast.


\

SacriliciousBeerSwiller: Google? No. They have Microsoft-like depth and broadness.

Facebook? Yeah. They're f*cked as soon as the hipsters lead everyone elsewhere.


Well that was weird.
 
2012-05-04 01:37:09 PM  

narkor: More than 95% of Google's income comes from one stream - Advertising.


That's not necessarily a killer, seeing as how television and radio stations have supported themselves for generations on this very model. Adobe, for example, is purely a software company, even though it has a fairly wide product line. Microsoft is diversified, google is attempting to diversify now. I'd rate it as having 'good odds' of being successful, even if only 10% of products succeed in the long run.

Craps the Gorilla: "Why has amazon done so little in social?"

Prolly because they're trying to farking sell products. not get you to create a profile to add friends, and post hilarious pictures of you and your friends..


Just brainstorming, but one could argue that they're trying to say that Amazon should be trying to do more profiling/encouraging their customers to sell Amazon retailed products(recommend this product to your relatives/friends!); something between true 'multi-level marketing' schemes, but beyond simply allowing customers to post public reviews of the products right on the site. Beyond that, well, there's a reason I'm not a CEO of a multi-million dollar startup.
 
2012-05-05 07:56:22 AM  
I just hope nothing happens to Lycos.
 
2012-05-05 04:07:55 PM  
I stopped reading at Web 2.0.
 
2012-05-05 04:18:01 PM  

HempHead: You guys are missing the point. Google is not a search company( any more than Amazon is a book seller). Google makes money by selling ads. They are desperate to raise revenues by creating another line of business. So far they are failing.

Amazon, on the other hand is into all sorts of busineses from streaming tv and movies to cloud computing.

Pinterest is currently drawing a lot of people's time away from Facebook. Facebook has reached peak popularity unless they keep changing. Going public will not help.


Pinterest is a dumbed-down Tumblr clone.
 
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