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(Forbes)   In the next 5 - 8 yrs. Google and Facebook could just be gone. Not bankrupt gone, but MySpace gone   (forbes.com) divider line 141
    More: Obvious, Google, MySpace, Facebook  
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8721 clicks; posted to Geek » on 03 May 2012 at 2:02 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-05-03 03:31:03 PM  

HempHead: They are desperate to raise revenues by creating another line of business. So far they are failing.


yeah, their phones sure fell on their face.
 
2012-05-03 03:31:54 PM  

skodabunny: Mumbler: That doesn't really sound like a Facebook problem, sounds like you have a crappy phone.

Maybe. It certainly performed better before being dropped in the toilet. But does nobody else see this message then? You all experience no problems like this with facebook mobile? Loads super quick every time?? Hmmm...


With an iPhone 4s on wi-fi I get that error. Their mobile app is crap.
 
2012-05-03 03:32:05 PM  

justtray: I give it less than a 1% chance that facebook still isn't a household name in 10 years.


Of course it will still be a household name. Myspace and AOL are still household names. That doesn't mean anything.
 
2012-05-03 03:34:18 PM  

Disposable Rob: skodabunny: Mumbler: That doesn't really sound like a Facebook problem, sounds like you have a crappy phone.

Maybe. It certainly performed better before being dropped in the toilet. But does nobody else see this message then? You all experience no problems like this with facebook mobile? Loads super quick every time?? Hmmm...

With an iPhone 4s on wi-fi I get that error. Their mobile app is crap.


God bless you, disposable rob.
 
2012-05-03 03:35:18 PM  

Vaneshi: wildsnowllama:
Xerox

It still is a commonly used verb to mean a photocopying machine in some places (or at the very least understood to be old slang for photocopying) even you tend to see more Cannon units than Xero, much like Hoover and vacuums I guess.


Xerox is a has been as a corporation. Do they even make copiers any more? Who cares, I have a printer/fax/copier/scanner on my desk I bought for $100.
 
2012-05-03 03:35:49 PM  
So

Google
Facebook
Forbes

which is most likely to disappear first?
 
2012-05-03 03:36:05 PM  
Read the article. Short version: Most Internet companies don't last all that long. Therefore, Facebook and Google.
 
2012-05-03 03:42:33 PM  

EatHam: HempHead: They are desperate to raise revenues by creating another line of business. So far they are failing.

yeah, their phones sure fell on their face.


Microsoft makes more money off Android phones than Google.

------------------------------------- ------
Microsoft Now Making Even More Money From Android
Mashable - Wed, 25th Apr 2012 10:00 PM

Microsoft just signed a deal with one of the biggest electronics makers in the world to license technologies related to Android and Chrome.

The agreement is with Taiwan's Pegatron, and with it, Microsoft now has patent-licensing deals with four out of the five top Taiwanese manufacturers, the company announced on Wednesday.

It may seem strange that Microsoft is licensing Android and Chrome patents when both of those products are managed by Google.

But Microsoft holds many patents that relate directly to technologies used in the Android operating system and Chrome browser, and the company makes hundreds of millions of dollars every year from its licensing agreements with various manufacturers.

http://m.yahoo.com/w/legobpengine/new s/microsoft-now-making-even-more - money-android-220046784.html?orig_host _hdr=news.yahoo.com&.intl=US&.la ng=en-US
 
2012-05-03 03:43:06 PM  

skodabunny: Mumbler: That doesn't really sound like a Facebook problem, sounds like you have a crappy phone.

Maybe. It certainly performed better before being dropped in the toilet. But does nobody else see this message then? You all experience no problems like this with facebook mobile? Loads super quick every time?? Hmmm...


Facebook's mobile app takes forever to load on my phone (Google G2, 4G on T-Mobile). Twitter is nearly instantaneous, it's a very noticeable difference.
 
2012-05-03 03:43:28 PM  

HempHead: Microsoft makes more money off Android phones than Google.


Therefore, Google makes no money from their phones.
 
2012-05-03 03:51:35 PM  

HempHead:
Xerox is a has been as a corporation. Do they even make copiers any more? Who cares, I have a printer/fax/copier/scanner on my desk I bought for $100.


That was my point.

To sum up: You can still be a household name or a verb and not be the worlds number 1 anymore or potentially exist anymore (i.e. Kodak don't make cameras or film anymore but despite the years of waning usage a good picture is still referred to as a 'Kodak moment' by some).
 
2012-05-03 04:01:54 PM  
I'm sorry I use Google every day. Hundreds of times a day. As I have been since like 1997.

I use facebook now occasionally and only for ranting purposes and to stalk people. Not everyday, but often enough.

I don't know about FB but I'll probably be googling for life unless a seriously life changing technology comes along, and chances are google will have some involvement with it and it won't be in the next 10 years.
 
2012-05-03 04:05:07 PM  

HempHead: Vaneshi: wildsnowllama:
Xerox

It still is a commonly used verb to mean a photocopying machine in some places (or at the very least understood to be old slang for photocopying) even you tend to see more Cannon units than Xero, much like Hoover and vacuums I guess.

Xerox is a has been as a corporation. Do they even make copiers any more? Who cares, I have a printer/fax/copier/scanner on my desk I bought for $100.


Business clients are where Xerox is making their money. The company I'm contracted to is spending $50,000 a month on purchasing Xerox equipment, and that's going to continue until the end of 2013. Not to mention supply replenishment, service calls, software licenses, etc. for years afterwards.
 
2012-05-03 04:06:25 PM  
Google is going nowhere. Certain Google products may come and go, but the entire entity? Hell no.
 
2012-05-03 04:06:44 PM  

EatHam: HempHead: Microsoft makes more money off Android phones than Google.

Therefore, Google makes no money from their phones.


Google's Android has generated just $550m since 2008, figures suggest

Data provided in response to Oracle claim suggests Google gets more revenue from iPhone use than from Android ads and apps


Android generated less than $550m in revenues for Google between 2008 and the end of 2011, if figures provided by the search giant as part of a settlement offer with Oracle ahead of an expected patent and copyright infringement trial are an accurate guide.

The figures also suggest that Apple devices such as the iPhone, which use products such as its Maps as well as Google Search in its Safari browser, generated more than four times as much revenue for Google as its own handsets in the same period.

http://m.guardian.co.uk/technology/20 12/mar/29/google-earns-more-ipho n e-android?cat=technology&type=article
 
2012-05-03 04:14:07 PM  
Facebook is what parents and grandparents use to keep track of the family. This is pretty much the only thing that will keep Facebook afloat.

Facebook as social networking for young adults has been dead for a while, supplanted by Twitter and other sites.

Bing sucks. No one else seems poised to enter the search engine game. Google's going to have to really screw up in order to be replaced.
 
2012-05-03 04:15:08 PM  

Gotfire: Without facebook, how will I ever see how Aiden, Jaden, Braydon, Caden, Raiden, or Madison are growing up? I mean... without daily pictures of them eating or wearing various halloween costumes, I don't think I could survive.

/That's all facebook is. A farking medium for people to share pictures of their kids and awaiting praise from their "friends"


this is so very true but this is also why my soon-to-be-born son already has a facebook page. So I can spare MY friends from having to endure pictures of someone they don't know or really care about. If you want to see pictures of him, you can friend him and look at pictures of him all the live long day. Currently there are only sonagram pics, and my family have already made a few comments about it.

If you are my friend, you will not be exposed to pictures of my spawn, just me drinking beer at a Braves game and posts like "Chipper Jones Sucks!". I wish other parents would do the same.

/although he is negative 4 weeks old, to facebook he is 14
//also registered a few professional email accounts for him so they will be available when he grows up and needs to use something other than LeetHaxorz69 to apply for jobs with.
 
2012-05-03 04:16:45 PM  
Five years is a long time in the tech world, but as many have said, Google is doing too many things and still on the forefront of an awful lot. Even if someone came up with a search engine that was better enough than Google to make people change their habits, they'd still have gmail, google apps, android, etc.

Facebook, it's harder to say. Anyone wanting to unseat them is going to have a hard time getting that critical mass of users that facebook has though. But a social network is only as good as the friends you have that actively use it, and most of the people I care most about keeping up with aren't very heavy users anymore.
 
2012-05-03 04:20:28 PM  
900 million?!? ...yet it is American...but there are only 300+million people in America.....I sense funny math....look back two years and tell me what FB said about its number of users....
 
2012-05-03 04:22:42 PM  
Great theory... but I'm going to need my PC at work. There is no way I can get things like I do done on a phone. And since I'm going to be at work on a PC, I'm going to need something to do when I should be working. So I'll always want the internet avail.
 
2012-05-03 04:23:35 PM  

Disposable Rob: skodabunny: Mumbler: That doesn't really sound like a Facebook problem, sounds like you have a crappy phone.

Maybe. It certainly performed better before being dropped in the toilet. But does nobody else see this message then? You all experience no problems like this with facebook mobile? Loads super quick every time?? Hmmm...

With an iPhone 4s on wi-fi I get that error. Their mobile app is crap.


... So you're agreeing with Skodabunny?

BURRRRRRRRRRRRRNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

(I don't have any issues with FB loading, so I have no idea what you guys are talking about. It's a bit slow, I'll give you that)
 
2012-05-03 04:24:02 PM  
Facebook may not be around in the same incarnation they are today, but they will still be around offering some product or service and they will probably be huge.
 
2012-05-03 04:31:57 PM  

HempHead: Android generated less than $550m in revenues for Google between 2008 and the end of 2011, if figures provided by the search giant as part of a settlement offer with Oracle ahead of an expected patent and copyright infringement trial are an accurate guide.


yes, and how much is the data collected in that same time period worth? They aren't an operating system company, they are an advertising company.
 
2012-05-03 04:32:00 PM  
Why has Amazon done so little in social?

That is possibly the stupidest comment in the article. Does the author think that continuing success on the internet requires every business model to devolve in to another Facebook?
 
2012-05-03 04:32:16 PM  
But the author of TFA gets to cash his check NOW. And he gets that check no matter whether his predictions are right or wrong.
 
2012-05-03 04:36:18 PM  

Cinaed: Facebook? Maybe.

Google? No.

One is stuck in a very narrow and specific area of concern. The other is branching out relentlessly.


This. Facebook has a pretty good chance of going away, partially because it does a narrow business as you say, but there's more to it as well. The internet's various social hubs have all risen and declined in popularity. I remember when everyone was using AOL chat rooms, and then when MySpace became popular and those went away, and then MySpace got filled with pedophiles and everybody went to Facebook. Now Facebook is filled with obnoxious teenagers and everybody's mom, and I am guessing that it is only a matter of time until Facebook quits being the popular place to go on the internet, and something else swoops in to take its place.

Side note---I actually think that is why Google is smart to keep Google+ around. It's not taking off in popularity at all, but that isolation may make it cool if/when people start fleeing Facebook.

Anyway, you're dead right about Google. They have their hands in pretty much every tech-related business, or they soon will. I didn't understand why the author of TFA didn't think Google was adapting to the mobile web....after all, I know an awful lot of people who use Android phones.
 
2012-05-03 04:45:40 PM  
Facebook has the largest database of facial photos in the world, many of them matched to real people.
 
2012-05-03 04:46:10 PM  
I could see a new service(s) coming along to challenge Google, but it would take longer than 5 years to completely destroy it. The internet is pretty useless without a search engine of some sort.

Facebook is already pointless and could easily be made completely irrelevant by a new fad.
 
2012-05-03 04:50:03 PM  

Contents Under Pressure: Google's still going to be around. It's already been around for a very long time and does too many things to just wink out. Myspace was very limited in what it did. Facebook? Not sure. I would not totally disagree with the journo on that one.


I figure that myspace 'died' because Facebook did it so much better, much like how Google came to dominate Yahoo and such. Heck, myspace and yahoo are still stumbling along.

Amazon is still steaming, they'd need to fail to adapt like Sears, K-Mart, and Target did while Walmart forged a new paradigm.

Google has forged itself beyond being a 'search engine', much like how microsoft is far from simply being a OS company.

Could they die? Yes. Are they that likely? No. Can they expect to keep seeing their previous growth and revenues? Much less likely.
 
2012-05-03 05:08:28 PM  
I just want to say that "Path" is a wonderful little mobile social app...that if it ever gets any traction, it would be most likely gobbled up by someone big.
 
2012-05-03 05:09:28 PM  

EatHam: HempHead: Android generated less than $550m in revenues for Google between 2008 and the end of 2011, if figures provided by the search giant as part of a settlement offer with Oracle ahead of an expected patent and copyright infringement trial are an accurate guide.

yes, and how much is the data collected in that same time period worth? They aren't an operating system company, they are an advertising company.


That is Forbes point. Google has reached its peak. Growth has stopped.

Google is desperate to find another revenue source.

Preliminary indications are that Facebook has peaked as well.

They are both like AOL circa 1998.
 
2012-05-03 05:09:40 PM  

Disposable Rob: skodabunny: Mumbler: That doesn't really sound like a Facebook problem, sounds like you have a crappy phone.

Maybe. It certainly performed better before being dropped in the toilet. But does nobody else see this message then? You all experience no problems like this with facebook mobile? Loads super quick every time?? Hmmm...

With an iPhone 4s on wi-fi I get that error. Their mobile app is crap.


I, too, have experienced the fail that is their mobile app. Same thing happened to me on my iPhone 4S.
 
2012-05-03 05:10:22 PM  

Cinaed: One is stuck in a very narrow and specific area of concern. The other is branching out relentlessly.


But only two of Google's "branches" make any money to speak of: AdSense and AdWords (as part of search). If those fail - and I don't think they will, but if they do - it's not like they're going to make up the lost revenue with Chrome OS or Google Goggles or any of their other hobbies.
 
2012-05-03 05:13:13 PM  
img1.fark.net
 
2012-05-03 05:16:27 PM  
Google will be around.
Facebook I'm less sure about. People compare it to MySpace and Yahoo. I see it as more akin to AOL, which my mother and great aunt still use, though they refuse to use Facebook.
 
2012-05-03 05:20:51 PM  
Everything I've read from Forbes in the past 3 years sounds so farking out of touch it's shocking.
 
2012-05-03 05:28:52 PM  
I dunno - MySpace could turn out to be the web's DuMont, Facebook the equivalent of NBC.

/Whatever the dominant company, it will be owned by GE, Westinghouse, or some other uber-conglomerate
 
2012-05-03 05:31:04 PM  
I can't imagine Facebook or Google being what they are now in 20 years. Either could evolve into something else completely (sport teams? organic grocers?) but if they don't make radical changes to their revenue streams they will go buh-bye.

At the end of the day, both companies are just getting so sleazy that I figure Karma will eventually bite them in the ass.

/ And now, cue Google employees to descend, screaming, upon me.
 
2012-05-03 05:41:05 PM  

wildcardjack: I don't know what to use Facebook for, but Google is now a verb.

I can't think of any other companies that have done that trick, at least not in a matter of a few years. Sandwich sort of did that, but I bet people have been making bread pile-ups for ages.


Xerox, perhaps? But that happened when I was just a little one.
 
Skr
2012-05-03 05:43:00 PM  
It makes sense. At this point everyone is so attached to their smartphone... that I predict in the next 5 years the next big service will just be a "Cloud" for your individual Phone linked with everyone else.

Your phone is you, your storage, your wall, your link and status sharing device. And the next big service will just connect everyone's phone together in a similar yet different fashion to Facebook.

...and Facebook will eventually make a mistake they cannot recover from, judging by their past decisions. Yeah each silly change has the "I'mma going to quit Facebook and move to Canada" peeps, but overall they just seem to have a poor grasp on how to improve with out dramatic changes.
 
2012-05-03 05:49:45 PM  
As far as I'm concerned, the only good upgrade Facebook has had in the last 8 years was changing the wall to a free-text free for all to one where it kept track of who said what. And even that is noir obviously better as the old system had a certain charm to it.
 
2012-05-03 06:11:45 PM  

HempHead: That is Forbes point. Google has reached its peak. Growth has stopped.

Google is desperate to find another revenue source.


To expect growth forever is foolish.
 
2012-05-03 06:38:41 PM  

Gotfire: Without facebook, how will I ever see how Aiden, Jaden, Braydon, Caden, Raiden, or Madison are growing up? I mean... without daily pictures of them eating or wearing various halloween costumes, I don't think I could survive.

/That's all facebook is. A farking medium for people to share pictures of their kids and awaiting praise from their "friends"


wow did you nail it on the head. i had closed my account after realizing i was a FB tool and put my time to better use. fast forward three months and i opened a new account so i could have contact with my nieces and nephews.
 
2012-05-03 06:45:36 PM  
EatHam
you don't think they're indexing every android phone?

His point is that there is lots of content (dynamically generated/stored, etc.) which cannot be easily crunched by spiders. The most obvious example is Facebook content, but also includes web apps and such.

This difference also demonstrates how Facebook and Google are, in a sense, in direct competition. That is, Facebook uses people to process information while Google uses their machines. Google has taken a wise step in trying to integrate Google+ in the hopes of getting the best of both. Their monetization schemes are basically the same (advertisement). I do tend to favor Google in this, but mostly in the hope that it goes Skynet (as humanity is likely to destroy itself, through malice or apathy, otherwise).

Justin Bieber's Acne Medication
But only two of Google's "branches" make any money to speak of: AdSense and AdWords (as part of search). If those fail - and I don't think they will, but if they do - it's not like they're going to make up the lost revenue with Chrome OS or Google Goggles or any of their other hobbies.

If, for some bizarre reason, advertisement ceases being a practical monetization scheme.. then they'll charge outright for their services. Google's business is providing information... and they are rather good at it. I've seen numerous investors claim confusion at efforts like Chrome, but it's basically vertical integration. People use chrome-> Google services are more likely to be used -> Advertise on services -> Profit. Same deal with Android. The danger isn't so much Google's business model, it's competition (e.g. Baidu, at least for China).

HempHead
You guys are missing the point. Google is not a search company( any more than Amazon is a book seller). Google makes money by selling ads.

And airlines make money by selling tickets. But if they don't transport people, then nobody will buy tickets. If Google does not provide useful information, then nobody will view their ads (outside of their 3rd party ad schemes). Google is an information provider, and so I'm not sure "the point" we are missing is meaningful. Search was what they started with, but their goal is to be able to provide every kind of process-able information. Google Maps is a great example of this expansion.
 
2012-05-03 06:47:02 PM  

Lost Thought 00: An those little Apple and Microsoft companies will be turned to dust. Technology moves too fast, man, and no 1 company can ever keep up. Every 5 years they all go bankrupt and the process starts over again.


And yet so many companies and corporations in the US are "too big to fail." I wish more bloated companies would die out and get replaced, it's what's meant to happen. And no I'm not being UnAmerican tm. I'm being realistic.
 
2012-05-03 06:53:10 PM  
this stuff happens all the time.

besides Xerox: Sony, Dell, or LG's mobile phone division

/fun fact: remember those crappy Goldstar TVs and college dorm fridges? say hello to LG.
 
2012-05-03 07:00:44 PM  

wildcardjack: I don't know what to use Facebook for, but Google is now a verb.

I can't think of any other companies that have done that trick, at least not in a matter of a few years. Sandwich sort of did that, but I bet people have been making bread pile-ups for ages.


Xerox
 
2012-05-03 07:01:58 PM  
I totally agree the Facebook "I want everyone I've ever vaguely known to know my every move, with pictures" phase has peaked. As Facebook continues to rape its users privacy and monetize itself with more and more ads/business content, people will flee.

I removed over 80% of my friends a couple weeks ago and removed almost all of my personal info. Why give more information to them just so they can sell it.
 
2012-05-03 07:11:10 PM  
Facebook is the defacto portal throughout the internet for a vast majority of users. Almost every major site uses some type of Facebook integration for sharing and logging in. Part of Zuckerberg's genius has been in making sure that Facebook has its fingers in a million pies around the web. Its not going anywhere.
 
2012-05-03 07:12:00 PM  

Larofeticus: Those babies will not be using their parents social network.


I've used Facebook much less since my parents signed on. And once FB timelines me, I'll use it like I use Linkedin, as a sometimes address book.
 
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