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(Washington Post)   Electoral map, reality, does not favor Romney   (washingtonpost.com) divider line 356
    More: Obvious, Chris Cillizza, Mitt Romney, George H. W. Bush, John McCain, party favors, swing states, Massachusetts Governor, electoral vote  
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9422 clicks; posted to Politics » on 30 Apr 2012 at 10:38 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-04-30 02:37:12 PM

Hoarseman: MrBallou: My elderly mother-in-law informs me that Nobama doesn't stand a chance. His health care plan is an abomination and he's destroying the economy with his failed socialist policies. All of America hates him passionately and it's only his stranglehold on the LSM that keeps anybody saying otherwise.

Thank God for Fox News.

Your mother-in-law may need to be assessed for dementia and/or Alzheimer's.


No need to involve professionals. She's crazier than a shiat-house rat.
 
2012-04-30 02:38:42 PM
Idealism thread?
Hope Romney gets crushed so bad that the bagger wing splits from the republican party. Getting rid of the b-b-but rethuglicans!! excuse would open up the donkeys to a flank attack themselves.

Failing that I hope Obama wins the popular vote but loses the election. Because it would be funny.
 
2012-04-30 02:38:45 PM

Bontesla: Rmoney doesn't have people skills which is why his campaign is extremely gifted at making sure his gaffes dsiappear.


i'm not really seeing this. Individual gaffes may not run on end for weeks, but only because it seems like there's a new gaffe just waiting right around the corner. Even then, that Etch-a-sketch comment has stuck for quite some time. I think Romney may be trying to wipe that (growing) impression of him being out of touch, but he's doing a piss-poor job of doing so.


WombatControl: The problem with that analysis is that 2004 is a very different election than 2012. In 2004 the economy was doing well, the war in Iraq was a major issue, and Bush's approval ratings weren't stellar, but he was above 50% in most of the polls.

In 2012 the economy is barely recovering and could sink again, voters aren't nearly as concerned with foreign affairs, and Obama's approval ratings are consistently on the wrong side of 50% - if only just.

It's a very different political environment - if unemployment were as high in 2004 as it is today, it's very possible that Bush would have lost.


it's not entirely analogous, but I think 2004's Democrats mirrors 2012's Republicans in that they're running solely on anti-incumbency and not on an actual platform.The actual issues may be different, but the strategy seems to be the same.
 
2012-04-30 02:42:49 PM

verbaltoxin: Mrtraveler01: verbaltoxin: Jumping in late for this one, but I grew up in St. Charles County

Well it's only obligatory I ask which high school that you went to.

/St. Charles West here

The same. Class of '98.


Wow...it really is a small world huh?

/Class of '06
 
2012-04-30 02:43:26 PM

ordinarysteve: Anyways, I realize this isn't the thread to discuss Canadian politics but fark Harper.


Why not?

Canada's electoral map, reality, does not favor Romney either.
 
2012-04-30 02:43:51 PM
obama's toast.

can i say that?
 
2012-04-30 02:48:49 PM

Spaced Lion: You said "rape" twice.


I get the sense Harper likes rape.

(of public pension plans, at least)
 
2012-04-30 02:49:40 PM

akadros: Lost Thought 00: I could easily see Romney taking Ohio and FL back for the Rs. It's taking back Virginia and Iowa that I can't see him doing, And I could see him losing Georgia if he doesn't bridge the enthusiasm gap down there.

Living in Georgia, I really can't see that happening. For the most part, the derp is pretty strong down here, and the Obama-hatred is strong. I would be shocked (though happy) if Obama were to win here, but I just don't see it happening.


I live in an Atlanta suburb. The derp is strong here...
 
2012-04-30 02:50:48 PM

Ned Stark: Failing that I hope Obama wins the popular vote but loses the election. Because it would be funny.


How would that be funny? Having the Dominionists officially in charge of the US Military, and their lackey arm's distance away from the Big Red Button, would be funny? You think it would be amusing to have the most powerful war machine in human history in the hands of people who believe that the end of the world will happen within their lifetimes and who are looking forward to it because they think it will be the most glorious event in the history of the world?

You'd be willing to risk World War 3, and the possibility of the extinction of the entire human race, just to piss off liberals!?
 
2012-04-30 02:51:19 PM

Somacandra: ordinarysteve: Anyways, I realize this isn't the thread to discuss Canadian politics but fark Harper.

Why not?

Canada's electoral map, reality, does not favor Romney either.


I don't know, Rmoney is similar to Harper in many ways. They are both from liberal areas (Harper's from Etobicoke) and are trying to represent parties that consist of people who believe that Jesus rode a T-rex. And Harper managed to win using the right-wing PR machine. I hope this doesn't mean that Romney will win but fortunately, Rmoney is very, very similar to Kerry(flip-flop etch-a-sketch), who wasn't very good at overthrowing incumbents.
 
2012-04-30 02:52:25 PM

sweetmelissa31: I don't even care, holding a cat makes me want to vote for said cat holder.


i.imgur.com

i.imgur.com

I'll remember that next time Baron Greenback and Doctor Claw are running a double ticket.
 
2012-04-30 02:53:01 PM

colon_pow: obama's toast always lands butter side up.

can i say that?


FTFY
 
2012-04-30 02:55:09 PM

Mrtraveler01: verbaltoxin: Mrtraveler01: verbaltoxin: Jumping in late for this one, but I grew up in St. Charles County

Well it's only obligatory I ask which high school that you went to.

/St. Charles West here

The same. Class of '98.

Wow...it really is a small world huh?

/Class of '06


That it is.
 
2012-04-30 02:57:11 PM

FeedTheCollapse: Bontesla: Rmoney doesn't have people skills which is why his campaign is extremely gifted at making sure his gaffes dsiappear.

i'm not really seeing this. Individual gaffes may not run on end for weeks, but only because it seems like there's a new gaffe just waiting right around the corner. Even then, that Etch-a-sketch comment has stuck for quite some time. I think Romney may be trying to wipe that (growing) impression of him being out of touch, but he's doing a piss-poor job of doing so.


WombatControl: The problem with that analysis is that 2004 is a very different election than 2012. In 2004 the economy was doing well, the war in Iraq was a major issue, and Bush's approval ratings weren't stellar, but he was above 50% in most of the polls.

In 2012 the economy is barely recovering and could sink again, voters aren't nearly as concerned with foreign affairs, and Obama's approval ratings are consistently on the wrong side of 50% - if only just.

It's a very different political environment - if unemployment were as high in 2004 as it is today, it's very possible that Bush would have lost.

it's not entirely analogous, but I think 2004's Democrats mirrors 2012's Republicans in that they're running solely on anti-incumbency and not on an actual platform.The actual issues may be different, but the strategy seems to be the same.


Sorry, replying from my mobile, so this is just in regards to your response.

We have a collective knowledge of non-stop gaffes but the media drops each gaffe within a short amount of time. Compare Newt's moonbase comment to Rmoney's corporations are people comment.

While we remember both - the moonbase continued to get airtime and the corporations are people comment was dropped. Sure, it was replaced, and then dropped, and replaced.

Rmoney's team is really good at distracting us from the gaffe by putting our attention (sometimes on another gaffe).

That was my point. His team cannot upload a new personality for Rmoney but they can be effective at damage control when they need to be.
 
2012-04-30 03:04:47 PM

Bontesla: Nope. Read the entire thing.


Then what's with the "this?"
 
2012-04-30 03:05:10 PM
You're overstating things king something.

And it's not like your guy doesnt wave the sword himself. At Iran, particularly.
 
2012-04-30 03:06:01 PM

Dr Dreidel: / it is kind of funny - the GOP's last "big win" was immediately post-Reagan
// and they've both been flogging his corpse and losing elections (or ekeing out wins by slim margins) ever since


Don't you remember back in 2010 when the tea party/real americans changed everything...forever?
 
2012-04-30 03:06:32 PM

verbaltoxin: Mrtraveler01: verbaltoxin: After those events Missouri has been so hard right they overturned a law banning puppy mills. Missourians would rather put puppy mill owners over puppies, people. Puppies. Everybody f*cking loves puppies, yet in Missouri, they can't get a fair shake. That says all you need to know about how FUBAR Missouri is these days.

Blame the Ag lobby for that one. They spun that one into a law that encompassed more than just puppy mills to the point where people were afraid their farms would shut down over this law.

Of course they didn't have any proof that any of this would happen but it scared Missourians regardless, which was all the Ag lobby really wanted.

I never realized how powerful they were here in MO until that proposition came about.

I am pushing the "smart" button for this because sadly, a "scary" button is not available.


oi48.tinypic.com
 
2012-04-30 03:06:55 PM

colon_pow: obama's toast.

can i say that?


What would you like to say about Obama's toast?
 
2012-04-30 03:10:32 PM

Ned Stark: You're overstating things king something.

And it's not like your guy doesnt wave the sword himself. At Iran, particularly.


That f*cking monster.
 
2012-04-30 03:11:41 PM

thamike: Ned Stark: You're overstating things king something.

And it's not like your guy doesnt wave the sword himself. At Iran, particularly.

That f*cking monster.


Yes, international economic sanctions (Obama) are exactly the same as freely admitting you'd bomb Iran if elected (all GOP candidates).
 
2012-04-30 03:11:47 PM

BillCo: Well, I guess it's official then. Some hack at a lefty rag thinks Romney doesn't stand a chance. We might as well just not have the election and leave Obama in office for another 4 years.


Romney has a very good chance, but the fact remains that demographics do not favor the GOP, old white men are not the majority of Americans. Looking at the elcectoral map, there are more solid and lean Democrat states than Republican.
 
2012-04-30 03:16:13 PM

wippit: Carth: Spaced Lion: Carth: After Romney loses I hope Republicans realize the problem of nominating a MODERATE and choose a REAL conservative to run in 2016.

Personally, I'm hoping that the loss will catapult them so far off the derp end that they come back around on the side of sanity and nominate Huntsman.

No way. When Romney doesn't win the next nominee will at least be a Christian.

You do realize Romney is a Christian, right?


Not really. He's a magic-underpants Christian .. it's a grey area. I don't think Mormons are any weirder than Pentecostals, or some of the other batshiat crazy Evangelical sects though.
 
2012-04-30 03:17:22 PM

qorkfiend: thamike: Ned Stark: You're overstating things king something.

And it's not like your guy doesnt wave the sword himself. At Iran, particularly.

That f*cking monster.

Yes, international economic sanctions (Obama) are exactly the same as freely admitting you'd bomb Iran if elected (all GOP candidates).


No, one is a bit of rhetoric the other is an actual act of war affecting millions of innocent people.

Also, Obama says he'd resort to military force to keep Iran from getting the bomb too.
 
2012-04-30 03:17:22 PM

Ned Stark: And it's not like your guy doesnt wave the sword himself. At Iran, particularly.


It helps to, you know, read a newspaper before making this kind of statement. Today's NY Times, front page:

"Experts Believe Iran Conflict Is Less Likely - With the revival of talks - which went unexpectedly well - and domestic differences arising in Israel, the odds of imminent conflict have decreased, American officials say."

That f*cking warmonger, Obama! "Your guy", indeed - way to sound like a 9-year-old.
 
2012-04-30 03:18:50 PM

thamike: colon_pow: obama's toast.

can i say that?

What would you like to say about Obama's toast?


It's darker than Romney's toast.

Because outside of America, the little knob on the toaster goes up to eleven, because of the metric system.

The darker the toast, the easier it is to spread dog liver pate on it. Or so some people say.
 
2012-04-30 03:20:42 PM

cameroncrazy1984: WombatControl: Not to get too far off-topic, but I was about to abandon using the term "Fark Liberal™," but I've determined that it works at a deeper level than I'd intended it. It wasn't intended to be anything more than a term for a liberal/progressive/left-wing poster on Fark. But it actually matches the Fark Independent™ meme better than I'd thought.

My god! You're smarter than any of us realized!

nah, just kidding. You're still a massive idiot.


In the spirit of WCs post, I hereby nominate WombatControl as our standard unit: 1000 FarkSchmuckTMs = 1 WombatControl.
 
2012-04-30 03:22:26 PM

King Something: Ned Stark: Failing that I hope Obama wins the popular vote but loses the election. Because it would be funny.

How would that be funny? Having the Dominionists officially in charge of the US Military, and their lackey arm's distance away from the Big Red Button, would be funny? You think it would be amusing to have the most powerful war machine in human history in the hands of people who believe that the end of the world will happen within their lifetimes and who are looking forward to it because they think it will be the most glorious event in the history of the world?

You'd be willing to risk World War 3, and the possibility of the extinction of the entire human race, just to piss off liberals!?


Isn't that the party platform?
 
2012-04-30 03:23:16 PM

Wooly Bully: Ned Stark: And it's not like your guy doesnt wave the sword himself. At Iran, particularly.

It helps to, you know, read a newspaper before making this kind of statement. Today's NY Times, front page:

"Experts Believe Iran Conflict Is Less Likely - With the revival of talks - which went unexpectedly well - and domestic differences arising in Israel, the odds of imminent conflict have decreased, American officials say."

That f*cking warmonger, Obama! "Your guy", indeed - way to sound like a 9-year-old.


And the day before the stealth bombers were massing for an attack, the day before that Iran was open to reason and the day before blah blah blah. Those little geopolitical dances ebb and flow. It ain't over till it's over.
 
2012-04-30 03:23:29 PM

Ned Stark: qorkfiend: thamike: Ned Stark: You're overstating things king something.

And it's not like your guy doesnt wave the sword himself. At Iran, particularly.

That f*cking monster.

Yes, international economic sanctions (Obama) are exactly the same as freely admitting you'd bomb Iran if elected (all GOP candidates).

No, one is a bit of rhetoric the other is an actual act of war affecting millions of innocent people.


So, Romney is lying, or what?

Also, Obama says he'd resort to military force to keep Iran from getting the bomb too.

Care to provide any sort of reference to back this claim up?
 
2012-04-30 03:24:47 PM

colon_pow: obama's toast.

can i say that?


Someone doesn't believe in polls.
 
2012-04-30 03:30:40 PM

qorkfiend: Ned Stark: qorkfiend: thamike: Ned Stark: You're overstating things king something.

And it's not like your guy doesnt wave the sword himself. At Iran, particularly.

That f*cking monster.

Yes, international economic sanctions (Obama) are exactly the same as freely admitting you'd bomb Iran if elected (all GOP candidates).

No, one is a bit of rhetoric the other is an actual act of war affecting millions of innocent people.

So, Romney is lying, or what?

Also, Obama says he'd resort to military force to keep Iran from getting the bomb too.

Care to provide any sort of reference to back this claim up?


Romney may or may not be lying. I'm not privy.

You'll have to wait about 4 hours if you want a source on Obama, I'm on my phone here.
 
2012-04-30 03:30:49 PM

colon_pow: obama's toast.

can i say that?


Republicans are really this dumb. At least he is talking about toast instead of their phallic obsessions.
 
2012-04-30 03:35:17 PM

Ned Stark: And the day before the stealth bombers were massing for an attack, the day before that Iran was open to reason and the day before blah blah blah. Those little geopolitical dances ebb and flow. It ain't over till it's over.


In other words: "Facts, schmacts." Spoken just like a Republican.
 
2012-04-30 03:39:17 PM

Ned Stark: qorkfiend: Ned Stark: qorkfiend: thamike: Ned Stark: You're overstating things king something.

And it's not like your guy doesnt wave the sword himself. At Iran, particularly.

That f*cking monster.

Yes, international economic sanctions (Obama) are exactly the same as freely admitting you'd bomb Iran if elected (all GOP candidates).

No, one is a bit of rhetoric the other is an actual act of war affecting millions of innocent people.

So, Romney is lying, or what?

Also, Obama says he'd resort to military force to keep Iran from getting the bomb too.

Care to provide any sort of reference to back this claim up?

Romney may or may not be lying. I'm not privy.

You'll have to wait about 4 hours if you want a source on Obama, I'm on my phone here.


Here's one. Surprised this is even subject to debate. Obama has been very clear about willingness to use military force.

Link
 
2012-04-30 03:39:45 PM

MrBallou: My elderly mother-in-law informs me that Nobama doesn't stand a chance. His health care plan is an abomination and he's destroying the economy with his failed socialist policies. All of America hates him passionately and it's only his stranglehold on the LSM that keeps anybody saying otherwise.

Thank God for Fox News.


Wow, that sounds exactly like my parents. I try and have rational discussions about it, and they are smart rational people, but they get all bent out of shape. I decided to attempt a new tactic now - I am working on convincing them to stop watching fox news.
 
2012-04-30 03:41:43 PM

Wooly Bully: Ned Stark: And the day before the stealth bombers were massing for an attack, the day before that Iran was open to reason and the day before blah blah blah. Those little geopolitical dances ebb and flow. It ain't over till it's over.

In other words: "Facts, schmacts." Spoken just like a Republican.


Hey,if it keeps up with the 'conflict less likely' stuff for about a month and sanctions get lifted and we just don't here about Iran anymore outside of their annual holocast denial speech I will totally give some credit. But one article in the farking nyt won't cut it.
 
2012-04-30 03:55:46 PM

Ned Stark: we just don't here


It's "we just aren't here."
 
2012-04-30 04:00:11 PM

thamike: Ned Stark: we just don't here

It's "we just aren't here."


Don't hear.

Eye blame three phone.
 
2012-04-30 04:05:08 PM
Karl Rove has Obama at 284 (likely and leaning) and he hasn't even started to campaign.

That should be all you need to know, really.
 
2012-04-30 04:08:03 PM

FeedTheCollapse: it's not entirely analogous, but I think 2004's Democrats mirrors 2012's Republicans in that they're running solely on anti-incumbency and not on an actual platform.The actual issues may be different, but the strategy seems to be the same.


Yup, it's 2004 all over again, merely with the parties switched. Oh, and Obama's more popular (and did better in his first election) than Bush was. Both Kerry and R-Money are "safe" "moderate" candidates who suck at the actual getting elected part. Both can easily be stereotyped as "out of touch rich guys" who simply can't connect with the "common man".
 
2012-04-30 04:10:11 PM

sweetmelissa31: Somacandra: 2.bp.blogspot.com

Isn't that your Prime Minister posing in a sweater vest and petting a kitten while rape-raping public pension plans ?

I don't even care, holding a cat makes me want to vote for said cat holder. Cases in point:

[www.cbc.ca image 207x207]

[multimedia.heraldinteractive.com image 315x275]

[whyevolutionistrue.files.wordpress.com image 290x512]


I just tried really hard to find a picture of Hitler with an adorable kitten. Mission failed.
 
2012-04-30 04:12:18 PM

Geotpf

FeedTheCollapse: it's not entirely analogous, but I think 2004's Democrats mirrors 2012's Republicans in that they're running solely on anti-incumbency and not on an actual platform.The actual issues may be different, but the strategy seems to be the same.

Yup, it's 2004 all over again, merely with the parties switched. Oh, and Obama's more popular (and did better in his first election) than Bush was. Both Kerry and R-Money are "safe" "moderate" candidates who suck at the actual getting elected part. Both can easily be stereotyped as "out of touch rich guys" who simply can't connect with the "common man".


I have to agree. I have been thinking this recently as well...now someone just needs to play football with Rmoney and it's done.

/hey, I know the guy that owns the company that made that football. who let the dog's out?
//Mock outrage??
 
2012-04-30 04:18:00 PM

wildcardjack: Dammit, Florida is going to be important again this year. It went to Obama in 08 by less than 3%, but this time Rmoney's background and personality make it so I can't think of a comparison. In 08 McCain was basically one of them and he didn't get the state.


Rick Scott is the least popular Governor in the country.

He's hated by everybody from the left to the moderate right and he alone is going to deliver Florida, and thus the election, to Obama.
 
2012-04-30 04:18:18 PM

Boxcutta: Karl Rove has Obama at 284 (likely and leaning) and he hasn't even started to campaign.

That should be all you need to know, really.


Rove and Atwater have a special place reserved for them.

Right near the child molesters and people who talk in movie theaters.
 
2012-04-30 04:18:57 PM

WombatControl: It's a very different political environment - if unemployment were as high in 2004 as it is today, it's very possible that Bush would have lost.


The party that said, "people have been on unemployment long enough! Let's stop sending them checks unless we get to continue our tax breaks for rich people!" should go over well with unemployed voters this year.
 
2012-04-30 04:21:10 PM
I don't want to hear about any polls unless something massive occurs (dead girl/live boy) or we are two-weeks from the election, no matter what they say about the likelihood my candidate will win. 6-2 months from the election, no poll results matter because too much is still in flux. Give them a rest.
 
2012-04-30 04:23:37 PM
images.wikia.com
Romnoid's dog, tied to the roof.
 
2012-04-30 04:25:58 PM

T-Servo: My parents are still convinced Newt will snag the nomination at the convention, and save the world.


Tell your parents the only thing Newt is going to snag at the convention is a blowjob from future wife #4.
 
2012-04-30 04:26:39 PM

Bontesla: We have a collective knowledge of non-stop gaffes but the media drops each gaffe within a short amount of time. Compare Newt's moonbase comment to Rmoney's corporations are people comment.


but I would also argue that the reason the Moonbase comment stuck with Newt is not the candidate Romney was. What has Newt done since? Romney's gaffes dropping in favor of another gaffe has nothing to do with Romney's team fighting to keep those gaffes out of discussion, it's just that it gets replaced with yet another gaffe, then yet another, etc. If Romney's gaffes aren't sticking, why do we still discuss etch-a-sketches? They're relatively minor gaffes, but they're all part of a much larger portrait of someone out of touch, which is one Romney will have a hard time shaking.
 
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