keylock71: Eh... a tad early for this kind of stuff, but yeah, Romney's got a hard row to hoe if he wants to win.

First, the guy is obviously completely out of touch with what the average American is facing these days when it comes to the economy. It's obvious this pampered plutocrat has never struggled a day in his life.

Second, what exactly are Romney's positions beyond "I know what it takes to create jobs", "I'm not a black guy with a funny name" and "Like all Republicans before me, I will continue the failed policies of Trickle Down Economics and screw the poor and working poor every chance I get"?

For me, this election comes down to two questions:

Which party is, at the very least, attempting to address and correct the problems which are overwhelmingly hurting the poor, working poor and middle classes in this country?

Which party has done nothing but defend the wealthiest Americans and Corporations while demanding the poor, working poor and Middle Classes pay for the excesses, crimes and avarice of the wealthy elite?

I would add one question:

Which party has done nothing but saber-rattle about Iran, less than a year removed from withdrawal from Iraq?

Counterpoint: The Democrats are terrible at messaging, and Obama hasn't exactly been firing up his base lately. While "I'm not a lunatic" will certainly work for the Dems, it would help if they also got people excited about their ideas.

BillCo: Well, I guess it's official then. Some hack at a lefty rag thinks Romney doesn't stand a chance. We might as well just not have the election and leave Obama in office for another 4 years.

Librual media! Wahhhhh! Grow a pair and stop acting like a 4 year old

Karl Rove's current electoral map....

WombatControl: I don't see VA and NC going to Obama this time around. Obama won them in 2008 by getting the African-American vote, the youth vote, and the independent vote strongly behind him. The first two are not going to turn out in 2008-style numbers because they're taking the worst of this economy. The independent vote is far more up for grabs today than it was in 2008. It will be close, but those were states that Obama picked up due to factors that don't exist today.

VA has been trending blue and Obama won the state by 7 points in 2008, it'll be a closer finish this time around but I'm fairly confident Obama will hold onto this one in 2012. NC on the other hand will likely flip back red, Obama won that state by only 0.3 points last time around.

You're right, there is going to be less energizing of the youth and minority vote than during the historic election of our first african-american president. On the flip side of the coin, the republicans have nominated a candidate that is even less energizing to their base than McCain, turnout at the repub primaries have been in some cases 40% lower than in 2008. Thats not even mentioning the large independent women voter disparity currently showing in the polls. In all honesty Romney comes out the loser in this comparison.

MrBallou: My elderly mother-in-law informs me that Nobama doesn't stand a chance. His health care plan is an abomination and he's destroying the economy with his failed socialist policies. All of America hates him passionately and it's only his stranglehold on the LSM that keeps anybody saying otherwise.

Thank God for Fox News.



Your elderly mother-in-law is BillCo?

Xythero: Counterpoint: The Democrats are terrible at messaging, and Obama hasn't exactly been firing up his base lately. While "I'm not a lunatic" will certainly work for the Dems, it would help if they also got people excited about their ideas.

Maybe they are just going to wait a bit to see if Rmoney buries himself with some gaff about how annoying poor people are or such. I'm hoping that someone gets him talking about Jesus living with natives. That won't happen but I would love to see the christian cons go full-retard.

the opposite of charity is justice: VA has been trending blue and Obama won the state by 7 points in 2008, it'll be a closer finish this time around but I'm fairly confident Obama will hold onto this one in 2012.

One word that will help Obama in VA: NoVA

That area is the fastest growing part of Virginia and it's heavily favored toward Democrats.

Dusk-You-n-Me: Xythero: While "I'm not a lunatic" will certainly work for the Dems, it would help if they also got people excited about their ideas.

D +11, enthusiasm.
70% of African Americans "very excited" to vote.
58% of Liberals and under 30 years old "very excited" to vote.

Link

Yep.

There is definitely an enthusiasm gap, but it ain't benefiting the Republicans.

InmanRoshi: Karl Rove's current electoral map....

[rove.com image 640x478]

I can't argue with that map. Note that Obama can lose all the toss up states and still win. This means he doesn't need Florida, for example.

hillbillypharmacist: WombatControl: I recall that in 2010 all the Fark Liberals™ were telling everyone that there was no way in hell that the the GOP would have a prayer of taking the House

That's bullsh*t. Every liberal on Fark was discussing how many seats we would lose, and whether or not we might lose the Senate.

Don't bother. I've learned that WombatControl hears what he wants to hear, and what he wants to hear from us is how slavishly in love we are with the Democratic Party.

Winning Alabama and Mississippi should deduct from your vote total.

One should be ashamed to win those states.

InmanRoshi: Karl Rove's current electoral map....

[rove.com image 640x478]

That is more pessimistic than I expected.

I want to see this map after each of the next 6 monthly Jobs Reports released by the Feds. Because those reports sucking wind are the only chance in hell Romney has.

Lenny_da_Hog: theorellior: Lenny_da_Hog: //scans own post for Muphry's Law, waits for it to appear after preview....

I'm assuming you Rotskyed this on purpose, then?

/pet peave

Muphry's Law

That cleared my lungs. Double meta Jedi mind trick stuff.

InmanRoshi: Karl Rove's current electoral map....

[rove.com image 640x478]

Wow, something political and Rove and realistic. How odd.

Dammit, Florida is going to be important again this year. It went to Obama in 08 by less than 3%, but this time Rmoney's background and personality make it so I can't think of a comparison. In 08 McCain was basically one of them and he didn't get the state.

MrBallou: My elderly mother-in-law informs me that Nobama doesn't stand a chance. His health care plan is an abomination and he's destroying the economy with his failed socialist policies. All of America hates him passionately and it's only his stranglehold on the LSM that keeps anybody saying otherwise.

Thank God for Fox News.

This is an excellent example of how the Democrats suck at messaging. Polls show people don't like Obamacare as a whole, but they do like the individual things it does. Democrats need to talk about these individual policies every chance they get. Make it a debate about why insurance companies should be able to cut you off when you get cancer instead of some ambiguous notion of socialized medicine. But they don't, and Republicans are using that to their advantage. It's their biggest hit against Obama right now.

Xythero: MrBallou: My elderly mother-in-law informs me that Nobama doesn't stand a chance. His health care plan is an abomination and he's destroying the economy with his failed socialist policies. All of America hates him passionately and it's only his stranglehold on the LSM that keeps anybody saying otherwise.

Thank God for Fox News.

This is an excellent example of how the Democrats suck at messaging. Polls show people don't like Obamacare as a whole, but they do like the individual things it does. Democrats need to talk about these individual policies every chance they get. Make it a debate about why insurance companies should be able to cut you off when you get cancer instead of some ambiguous notion of socialized medicine. But they don't, and Republicans are using that to their advantage. It's their biggest hit against Obama right now.

All they have to do is say "Obamacare". Details are unimportant.

WombatControl:
But then again, I recall that in 2010 all the Fark Liberals™ were telling everyone that there was no way in hell that the the GOP would have a prayer of taking the House - and the GOP ended up overperforming even my estimate...

One Possible Translation:

"I'm Good, DAMN Good, but occasionally even my impressive powers are overcome by Fate - my fault was moderating my opinions so as not to embarrass y'all. Now excuse me while I whip this out..."

\I know, I know, gym in 26 minutes

wildcardjack: Dammit, Florida is going to be important again this year. It went to Obama in 08 by less than 3%, but this time Rmoney's background and personality make it so I can't think of a comparison. In 08 McCain was basically one of them and he didn't get the state.

Actually, the toss-up states aren't all that important this year. According to the map, Obama has 220 votes and 64 votes "leaning" his way. That's already 284 votes. He just has to keep the "leaning" votes his way.

Shrugging Atlas: I want to see this map after each of the next 6 monthly Jobs Reports released by the Feds. Because those reports sucking wind are the only chance in hell Romney has.

I don't even think that would save R-Money. Not only do people have to think Obama sucks, they have to also think R-Money doesn't suck. R-Money hasn't really explained what he would do different, other than the generic "tax cuts for all" Republican program.

theorellior: WombatControl: I know the Fark Liberal™ community

Look, if you're gonna try to be a borderline troll who sometimes posts interesting or intelligent commentary, try not to emulate the League of Fail when they lamely attempt to co-opt liberal jokes.

Not to get too far off-topic, but I was about to abandon using the term "Fark Liberal™," but I've determined that it works at a deeper level than I'd intended it. It wasn't intended to be anything more than a term for a liberal/progressive/left-wing poster on Fark. But it actually matches the Fark Independent™ meme better than I'd thought.

The "Fark Independent™" meme was based upon Farkers who claimed to be independent but were really Republicans. The "Fark Liberal™" term is based on Farkers who claim to be liberal or progressive, but are really just reactionaries for their side. Liberalism is supposed to mean support for the rights of the individual, limited interference in personal affairs by the government, and intellectual open-mindedness.

The reason why I'm keeping with the Fark Liberal™ term is that many "liberal" posters on Fark don't support those values. Rather, the term Fark Liberal™ implies someone who is a closed-minded reactionary who puts the power of the state ahead of the rights of the individual.

That way the term is also a bit more limited - there are intelligent liberal commenters on Fark who don't deserve the pejorative implication of the term "Fark Liberal™". Which is why it's better not being the generic term that I originally intended it to be.

/ Yes, this is over thinking it...

InmanRoshi: Arkanaut: I dunno -- he became the presumptive nominee by being much better than his opponents at not screwing up. There's some value to that in a campaign. He's also been quick to strike back any time he gets attacked, making sure that the attack on him doesn't stay in the news cycle too long. He really has just two main weaknesses in the general election: 1) any time the campaign requires him to interact with regular people, he shows how awkward -- and IMO even disdainful -- he can be; and 2) the derpiness of the Republican Party as a whole, which he hasn't shown he can shake off. McCain at least took a principle stand on torture, and publicly rebuked people who tried to make Obama's perceived religion an issue; Romney hasn't shown that he has that kind of backbone.

3) He's still carrying the weight of the Bush legacy. There's a reason why the GOP have locked up Bush in an undisclosed cave, the general public still blame him for the recession. He doesn't have any alternatives to Obama's policies that don't basically equate to Bush's policies on steroids.

I kinda rolled that into 2). While some people still consider Reaganomics a legitimate talking point, and though it might have been well-intentioned, I think it's pretty clear that the Bush economic policies failed to stimulate growth, and worsened the income and wealth gap in the country -- and that Romney intends on getting us back on that path. Another NYT article from last week talked about what Hispanic voters in Florida - a crucial voting bloc - think about Romney's policy ideas:

But the problem for Mr. Romney is that though Hispanics are suffering disproportionately, polls show that they are not blaming Mr. Obama.

"When they say the economy is bad, yes, Latinos believe that, but they think it's bad because of the Bush tax cuts," said Matt Barreto, a political scientist at the University of Washington who surveys Hispanic voters.

WombatControl: Not to get too far off-topic, but I was about to abandon using the term "Fark Liberal™," but I've determined that it works at a deeper level than I'd intended it. It wasn't intended to be anything more than a term for a liberal/progressive/left-wing poster on Fark. But it actually matches the Fark Independent™ meme better than I'd thought.

My god! You're smarter than any of us realized!

nah, just kidding. You're still a massive idiot.

WombatControl: / Yes, this is over thinking it...

Random babbling != thought

/Unless you're high of course

WombatControl: theorellior: WombatControl: I know the Fark Liberal™ community

Look, if you're gonna try to be a borderline troll who sometimes posts interesting or intelligent commentary, try not to emulate the League of Fail when they lamely attempt to co-opt liberal jokes.

Not to get too far off-topic, but I was about to abandon using the term "Fark Liberal™," but I've determined that it works at a deeper level than I'd intended it. It wasn't intended to be anything more than a term for a liberal/progressive/left-wing poster on Fark. But it actually matches the Fark Independent™ meme better than I'd thought.

The "Fark Independent™" meme was based upon Farkers who claimed to be independent but were really Republicans. The "Fark Liberal™" term is based on Farkers who claim to be liberal or progressive, but are really just reactionaries for their side. Liberalism is supposed to mean support for the rights of the individual, limited interference in personal affairs by the government, and intellectual open-mindedness.

The reason why I'm keeping with the Fark Liberal™ term is that many "liberal" posters on Fark don't support those values. Rather, the term Fark Liberal™ implies someone who is a closed-minded reactionary who puts the power of the state ahead of the rights of the individual.

That way the term is also a bit more limited - there are intelligent liberal commenters on Fark who don't deserve the pejorative implication of the term "Fark Liberal™". Which is why it's better not being the generic term that I originally intended it to be.

/ Yes, this is over thinking it...

I am shocked, shocked, that liberals don't quite match your personal definition of "liberal".

BillCo: Well, I guess it's official then. Some hack at a lefty rag thinks Romney doesn't stand a chance. We might as well just not have the election and leave Obama in office for another 4 years.

Well, that would help improve Rmoney's image . . .

Mrtraveler01: One word that will help Obama in VA: NoVA

That area is the fastest growing part of Virginia and it's heavily favored toward Democrats.

While we'll certainly do our part up here in NoVA, you must remember that the rest of the Commonwealth is filled with frothing idiots. Well armed frothing idiots.

InmanRoshi: Karl Rove's current electoral map....

[rove.com image 640x478]

That's interesting. If Romney can't win Ohio, he really doesn't have a shot at winning nationally.

What's interesting is that Obama's job approval in Ohio is right at the cusp of where an incumbent is in serious trouble. (47% approval or lower and an incumbent President will generally lose that state.) Obama's approval rating in OH is 47% positive, 49% negative. Numbers like that should be very bad for Obama. But he's over performing those numbers in head-to-head polling.

Which suggests that Romney isn't closing the deal in Ohio - not good news for Romney. But if Romney does as well with Ohio Republicans as he's now doing nationally, those numbers could change.

Still, Romney's going to have to do much better in Ohio to have a chance of winning the election.

MrBallou: My elderly mother-in-law informs me that Nobama doesn't stand a chance. His health care plan is an abomination and he's destroying the economy with his failed socialist policies. All of America hates him passionately and it's only his stranglehold on the LSM that keeps anybody saying otherwise.

Thank God for Fox News.

I think there's some type of Apocalyptic film frequenting the Evangelistic circles. I was just told that I needed to buy this one film and start hosting small groups of people to get the word out.

/I've been leaving as a godless heathen for years now.

MrBallou: My elderly mother-in-law informs me that Nobama doesn't stand a chance. His health care plan is an abomination and he's destroying the economy with his failed socialist policies. All of America hates him passionately and it's only his stranglehold on the LSM that keeps anybody saying otherwise.

Thank God for Fox News.

Your mother-in-law may need to be assessed for dementia and/or Alzheimer's.

vernonFL: FIrst of all, the election isn't until November.

Second, THE ELECTION ISN'T UNTIL NOVEMBER.

Short of Obama being associated with a dead girl/ live boy scandal, November is prolonging the inevitable.

qorkfiend: I am shocked, shocked, that liberals don't quite match your personal definition of "liberal".

FTFY:

I am shocked, shocked, that liberals don't quite match your personal the dictionary's definition of "liberal".

WombatControl: qorkfiend: I am shocked, shocked, that liberals don't quite match your personal definition of "liberal".

FTFY:

I am shocked, shocked, that liberals don't quite match your personal the dictionary's definition of "liberal".

Tell us what political description exactly matches all of your views.

The best part about Obama winning will be that he thwarted the Republicans singular goal of making him a "one term President."

I hope the rest of America wakes up and takes the GOP at their word and kicks them out of the legislature for simply being sand in the gears for the past four years.

WombatControl: qorkfiend: I am shocked, shocked, that liberals don't quite match your personal definition of "liberal".

FTFY:

I am shocked, shocked, that liberals don't quite match your personal the dictionary's definition of "liberal".

"favorable to progress or reform, as in political or religious affairs" doesn't match "support for the rights of the individual, limited interference in personal affairs by the government, and intellectual open-mindedness".