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(Washington Post)   Electoral map, reality, does not favor Romney   (washingtonpost.com) divider line 356
    More: Obvious, Chris Cillizza, Mitt Romney, George H. W. Bush, John McCain, party favors, swing states, Massachusetts Governor, electoral vote  
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9422 clicks; posted to Politics » on 30 Apr 2012 at 10:38 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-04-30 11:03:51 AM

StingerJ: FTA: No Republican presidential nominee has received more than 300 electoral votes in more than two decades.

Two decades? OMG!!! How about saying "Both times GWB won, he had less than 300 votes." It says the same thing.


Not when the point you are trying to make is the upside potential total EVs for Romney. No presidential candidate, even winning one's, got even 300 EVs, so 300 EVs is a reasonable ceiling to suggest for Romney this year, especially considering he's not a very strong candidate.
 
2012-04-30 11:04:13 AM

Lenny_da_Hog: Muphry's Law


LOL.
 
2012-04-30 11:04:28 AM

vernonFL: FIrst of all, the election isn't until November.

Second, THE ELECTION ISN'T UNTIL NOVEMBER.


This. Submit this headline in early October and watch me give me a shiat.
 
2012-04-30 11:05:42 AM

the opposite of charity is justice: OH or PA


I can't think of any qualified candidates from those states, really. Maybe Toomey from PA. He's insane, but nobody outside the teaparty knows about him, so he's gets to redefine himself as appropriate
 
2012-04-30 11:07:17 AM

Lost Thought 00: the opposite of charity is justice: OH or PA

I can't think of any qualified candidates from those states, really. Maybe Toomey from PA. He's insane, but nobody outside the teaparty knows about him, so he's gets to redefine himself as appropriate


oh yes...putting an investment banker forward as VP in this environment will go over REAL well with working folks who've been getting screwed by investment bankers for the past decade....
 
2012-04-30 11:07:33 AM

Lost Thought 00: I can't think of any qualified candidates from those states, really. Maybe Toomey from PA. He's insane, but nobody outside the teaparty knows about him, so he's gets to redefine himself as appropriate


There's another, frothier choice from PA...
 
2012-04-30 11:07:56 AM

Lost Thought 00: the opposite of charity is justice: OH or PA

I can't think of any qualified candidates from those states, really. Maybe Toomey from PA. He's insane, but nobody outside the teaparty knows about him, so he's gets to redefine himself as appropriate


He's pretty well-known in PA, and they don't seem to like him. I don't think Romney would pick a VP that would cost him a swing state.
 
2012-04-30 11:09:23 AM

RexTalionis: Isn't it a little early in the game to count electoral votes? Wait till at least, I dunno, August or September or something.


Yeah, Nate Silver FiveThirtyEight(NYT link) talked about this last week -- April polls only predicted the eventual winner 50% of the time over the last 10 presidential elections.
 
2012-04-30 11:10:06 AM

qorkfiend: Lost Thought 00: the opposite of charity is justice: OH or PA

I can't think of any qualified candidates from those states, really. Maybe Toomey from PA. He's insane, but nobody outside the teaparty knows about him, so he's gets to redefine himself as appropriate

He's pretty well-known in PA, and they don't seem to like him. I don't think Romney would pick a VP that would cost him a swing state.


He could always pull Palin again. She seems popular with the Republican base that Romney's having trouble with and she has experience as a vice-pre
 
2012-04-30 11:10:28 AM
In 2008 Missouri went for John McCain by a little less than 4,000 votes.

This time around, the atmosphere has changed and the state is almost assuredly going for Rmoney.

/We used to be a bellwether state. What the hell happened?
 
2012-04-30 11:10:29 AM

theorellior: Lost Thought 00: I can't think of any qualified candidates from those states, really. Maybe Toomey from PA. He's insane, but nobody outside the teaparty knows about him, so he's gets to redefine himself as appropriate

There's another, frothier choice from PA...


Romney/Santorum would work well inside the GOP echo chamber...but outside of that walled garden, it falls apart rapidly. that said...Romney's campaign is already a random collection of insanity so...why the hell not, right?
 
2012-04-30 11:12:03 AM

fenianfark: In 2008 Missouri went for John McCain by a little less than 4,000 votes.

This time around, the atmosphere has changed and the state is almost assuredly going for Rmoney.

/We used to be a bellwether state. What the hell happened?


I've been trying to figure this out myself too.

/Missourian
//Lives in St. Charles County which is one of the most red parts of the state not in the Ozarks
///Not a Republican himself though...
 
2012-04-30 11:12:14 AM
The predictions aren't just based on April polls, but previous precedent. I don't need to look at April polls to know Obama already has about 220 EVs in the bag from blue states.
 
2012-04-30 11:12:55 AM

RexTalionis: Isn't it a little early in the game to count electoral votes? Wait till at least, I dunno, August or September or something.


Its never to early to waste some time and effort counting electoral votes. Hell, I can't believe they haven't restrained themselves from counting electoral votes for the 2016 election.

It is silly to think any of this matters right now. We have to get through the entire summer first. There are plenty of opportunities for Romney to continue to say stupid, alienating shiat that show what clueless, smug and heartless bastard he is and there are plenty of opportunities for Obama to implode if the economy turns south, Israel bombs Iran, the stock market drops, etc. I've said this before and gotten some flak for it, but if you think Obama is going to win this hands down, then you are underestimating the stupidity and short sightedness of the American voting public. They elected Bush, twice. Don't think Romney is doomed to fail just because he is a wealthy, clueless and disconnected from middle America.
 
2012-04-30 11:13:24 AM

Weaver95: Romney/Santorum would work well inside the GOP echo chamber...but outside of that walled garden, it falls apart rapidly. that said...Romney's campaign is already a random collection of insanity so...why the hell not, right?


Oh, there's no chance a Romney/Santorum ticket would fly, but the lulz would be epic.
 
2012-04-30 11:14:09 AM
It's the economy, stupid.

It's not about magic underwear, eating dogs, beer or broads.
 
2012-04-30 11:15:10 AM

Sun Worshiping Dog Launcher: I've said this before and gotten some flak for it, but if you think Obama is going to win this hands down, then you are underestimating the stupidity and short sightedness of the American voting public. They elected Bush, twice. Don't think Romney is doomed to fail just because he is a wealthy, clueless and disconnected from middle America.


All good points. However, unless someone hits Rmoney's campaign with a clue-by-four, Obama's gonna eat his lunch in September.
 
2012-04-30 11:15:12 AM
Meh, seems to me we have two moderate Republicans running, so what's the big deal?

I know, I know. BSAB but not equally bad. Fair enough. And I'll probably end up voting for Obama since the Republicans need to be encouraged to stop listening to their lunatic fringe. But really, is it going to make that much of a difference?
 
2012-04-30 11:15:36 AM

theorellior: Weaver95: Romney/Santorum would work well inside the GOP echo chamber...but outside of that walled garden, it falls apart rapidly. that said...Romney's campaign is already a random collection of insanity so...why the hell not, right?

Oh, there's no chance a Romney/Santorum ticket would fly, but the lulz would be epic.


i'm kinda hoping Romney/Santorum actually comes to be...like you said, it would have zero chance of winning against Obama but it'd be highly entertaining. plus, that ticket would keep the evangelicals off Romney's back.
 
2012-04-30 11:15:43 AM

jehovahs witness protection: BillCo: Well, I guess it's official then. Some hack at a lefty rag thinks Romney doesn't stand a chance. We might as well just not have the election and leave Obama in office for another 4 years.

Silly man. Obama is doing away with term limits and will be king of the world for life. He's really that good.


Yes, we must immortalize this giant of a man in granite.
 
2012-04-30 11:15:46 AM
It's almost as if panting yourself in a corner as the Party of the South and Mountain West and openly antagonizing major population and urban areas has consequences. Oh, but that's right, only the coasts can be "elitist". I forgot.
 
2012-04-30 11:16:03 AM

Mrtraveler01: fenianfark: In 2008 Missouri went for John McCain by a little less than 4,000 votes.

This time around, the atmosphere has changed and the state is almost assuredly going for Rmoney.

/We used to be a bellwether state. What the hell happened?

I've been trying to figure this out myself too.

/Missourian
//Lives in St. Charles County which is one of the most red parts of the state not in the Ozarks
///Not a Republican himself though...


St. Louis has had a significant population drain over the last decade or so. Eventually that catches up with you, politically.
 
2012-04-30 11:17:54 AM

the opposite of charity is justice: Take the 2008 electoral map and adjust. I'm predicting any swing states that Obama won by 5 or more points in 2008 will stay with him, less than 5 points go to Romney. That would keep Obama CO, IA, NV, OH, and VA with Romney taking FL, MO, and NC. That gives Obama 303 electoral votes to Romney's 235.

Probably the best option Romney has is not wasting his VP pick on Rubio (FL is going to be close anyways, just throw money at this problem) and instead go for a veep out of OH or PA.


This isn't going to be a repeat of 2008 - not by a longshot. The same factors aren't going to be in play, so looking at 2008 as a baseline doesn't really get you to the dynamics of this race.

MO and IN are fairly safe for Romney. McCain won MO last time, and Obama won IN.

I don't see VA and NC going to Obama this time around. Obama won them in 2008 by getting the African-American vote, the youth vote, and the independent vote strongly behind him. The first two are not going to turn out in 2008-style numbers because they're taking the worst of this economy. The independent vote is far more up for grabs today than it was in 2008. It will be close, but those were states that Obama picked up due to factors that don't exist today.

The polls show OH leaning Obama now, but state-level polling this far out is not that reliable. If Obama wins OH, Romney is probably not going to win. (On the other hand, if Romney wins PA, Obama will probably lose.) That's the state to watch. (As it was in 2004.)

TFA is right - there isn't really that strong a path for Romney to get to 300 electoral votes (unless he wins PA, which is possible but unlikely). But there are several paths he has to get to 270, which is all he needs.

I know the Fark Liberal™ community thinks the race is over and Obama will win by a margin of at least eleventy billion percent, but the math doesn't work that way. But then again, I recall that in 2010 all the Fark Liberals™ were telling everyone that there was no way in hell that the the GOP would have a prayer of taking the House - and the GOP ended up overperforming even my estimate...
 
2012-04-30 11:18:00 AM

fringedmyotis: Meh, seems to me we have two moderate Republicans running, so what's the big deal?

I know, I know. BSAB but not equally bad. Fair enough. And I'll probably end up voting for Obama since the Republicans need to be encouraged to stop listening to their lunatic fringe. But really, is it going to make that much of a difference?


Since a Romney administration's agenda wouldn't be dictated by Romney's policy preferences but instead by the extremist Republicans in Congress, yes, it makes a very big difference.
 
2012-04-30 11:19:23 AM
Most of the wingnuts I know would read this and scream at the top of their that Obama has the California delegates (tin foil conspiracy) all paid off and we have now outsourced vote counting to a Spanish company (only partially true), thus sewing up the 2012 election for "Obummer" (their term not mine).
 
2012-04-30 11:20:15 AM

Lost Thought 00: Mrtraveler01: fenianfark: In 2008 Missouri went for John McCain by a little less than 4,000 votes.

This time around, the atmosphere has changed and the state is almost assuredly going for Rmoney.

/We used to be a bellwether state. What the hell happened?

I've been trying to figure this out myself too.

/Missourian
//Lives in St. Charles County which is one of the most red parts of the state not in the Ozarks
///Not a Republican himself though...

St. Louis has had a significant population drain over the last decade or so. Eventually that catches up with you, politically.


I guess that mixed in with my very Republican county growing to the point where it's bigger than the City of St. Louis and you might have something there.
 
2012-04-30 11:20:38 AM

StingerJ: FTA: No Republican presidential nominee has received more than 300 electoral votes in more than two decades.

Two decades? OMG!!! How about saying "Both times GWB won, he had less than 300 votes." It says the same thing.


It sort of goes without saying, but the losers also failed to get 300+EVs...

Because, though they lost, Bob Dole and HW Bush are still people.

// it is kind of funny - the GOP's last "big win" was immediately post-Reagan
// and they've both been flogging his corpse and losing elections (or ekeing out wins by slim margins) ever since
 
2012-04-30 11:20:39 AM

WombatControl: I recall that in 2010 all the Fark Liberals™ were telling everyone that there was no way in hell that the the GOP would have a prayer of taking the House


That's bullsh*t. Every liberal on Fark was discussing how many seats we would lose, and whether or not we might lose the Senate.
 
2012-04-30 11:22:22 AM

LordJiro: Cletus C.: The economy will determine who wins this election.

Which is why Republicans are doing all they can to sabotage it.


I was thinking more the reality than the rhetoric but sure.
 
2012-04-30 11:22:59 AM

hillbillypharmacist: WombatControl: I recall that in 2010 all the Fark Liberals™ were telling everyone that there was no way in hell that the the GOP would have a prayer of taking the House

That's bullsh*t. Every liberal on Fark was discussing how many seats we would lose, and whether or not we might lose the Senate.


Count me in that camp.

I knew the Dems weren't going to be able to hold the House, the math was working against them.

This year, they'll have difficulty holding onto the Senate although if the Tea Party turns up the derp to 11 like they did in 2010, they might once again save the Democrats from giving up the Senate to the Republicans.
 
2012-04-30 11:24:04 AM

Lionel Mandrake: BillCo: Well, I guess it's official then. Some hack at a lefty rag thinks Romney doesn't stand a chance. We might as well just not have the election and leave Obama in office for another 4 years.

You sound butthurt.

jehovahs witness protection: BillCo: Well, I guess it's official then. Some hack at a lefty rag thinks Romney doesn't stand a chance. We might as well just not have the election and leave Obama in office for another 4 years.

Silly man. Obama is doing away with term limits and will be king of the world for life. He's really that good.

You too.

Maybe in 2016 you guys will nominate someone electable. Nah, probably some teabagger with no chance in hell.


The TeaBaggers are convinced they are popular, handsome and well respected...they are totes #1, their mom told them so and ain't no 'election' gonna convince them otherwise.
 
2012-04-30 11:24:19 AM

theorellior: Oh, there's no chance a Romney/Santorum ticket would fly, but the lulz would be epic.


Meanwhile, in the Mitt Romney War Room:

"Justin Bieber!"
"Too young, Canadian."
"Dammit! Lady Gaga!"
"Too young, naked pics on internet."
"Dammit! Okay, then, Snoop... no, wait, that won't work. Will Smith!"
"Now we're talkin'!"
 
2012-04-30 11:24:52 AM

hillbillypharmacist: WombatControl: I recall that in 2010 all the Fark Liberals™ were telling everyone that there was no way in hell that the the GOP would have a prayer of taking the House

That's bullsh*t. Every liberal on Fark was discussing how many seats we would lose, and whether or not we might lose the Senate.


...a fair amount of Republicans and LIbertarians are asking that question as well. fact is its too early to say. senate races aren't always easy to predict.
 
2012-04-30 11:25:42 AM

qorkfiend: Since a Romney administration's agenda wouldn't be dictated by Romney's policy preferences but instead by the extremist Republicans in Congress, yes, it makes a very big difference.


Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but if his policies were more like (some) of the stuff he did as governor - stuff which he's tried hard to distance himself from in the campaign, granted - then he would indeed be a moderate. Can you imagine the lulz if he's elected and turns out to reasonable & moderate? The teahadists in congress would completely lose it. Now that would be amusing to watch - congress go after a sitting president in their own party.
 
2012-04-30 11:25:47 AM
It's only Spring. there is plenty of time for the billion dollar pledge of SuperPAC money to turn even the staunchest liberal against our do-nothing president that is tirelessly working to subvert America's greatest allies, her fine job-creators.
 
2012-04-30 11:28:02 AM
Look, we all know Romney's not going to win: he isn't conservative enough. Americans will settle for nothing less than a bug-eyed, hatchet-wielding reactionary and if they don't get that they'll punish everyone by electing a miscegenated communo-fascist empty suit tyrant.

Thanks a lot, elite Washington insiders of the GOP. No really, thanks bunches.
 
2012-04-30 11:28:18 AM

Weaver95: I just can't see Romney winning against Obama. nothing from the Romney organization convinces me he can run an effective campaign.


I dunno -- he became the presumptive nominee by being much better than his opponents at not screwing up. There's some value to that in a campaign. He's also been quick to strike back any time he gets attacked, making sure that the attack on him doesn't stay in the news cycle too long. He really has just two main weaknesses in the general election: 1) any time the campaign requires him to interact with regular people, he shows how awkward -- and IMO even disdainful -- he can be; and 2) the derpiness of the Republican Party as a whole, which he hasn't shown he can shake off. McCain at least took a principle stand on torture, and publicly rebuked people who tried to make Obama's perceived religion an issue; Romney hasn't shown that he has that kind of backbone.
 
2012-04-30 11:28:29 AM

BillCo: Well, I guess it's official then. Some hack at a lefty rag thinks Romney doesn't stand a chance. We might as well just not have the election and leave Obama in office for another 4 years.


Do plan on continuing to use this Fark handle after Obama is re-elected?
 
2012-04-30 11:29:12 AM

RexTalionis: Isn't it a little early in the game to count electoral votes? Wait till at least, I dunno, August or September or something.


What do you think will change between now and then?
 
2012-04-30 11:29:19 AM

WombatControl: I know the Fark Liberal™ community


Look, if you're gonna try to be a borderline troll who sometimes posts interesting or intelligent commentary, try not to emulate the League of Fail when they lamely attempt to co-opt liberal jokes.
 
2012-04-30 11:29:41 AM

Weaver95: I just can't see Romney winning against Obama. nothing from the Romney organization convinces me he can run an effective campaign. And when he loses, the evangelicals will rip him apart for failure.


I see Rmoney getting killed around debate time. Any stance he takes in the debate will cause the airwaves to be flooded the next day with video of him taking the opposite stance. This election is shaping up to be very similar to 2004 in that Rmoney is running on the "I'm not Obama" platform. Kerry did the same thing and it almost worked. GWB ran on a platform of a decisive leader. That election was very close and I think the flip-flopper campaign against Kerry was the nail in the coffin. Whether you support Obama policy or not he has shown to be a decisive leader that stays the course. Team Obama has a whole lot to work with on the flip-flopper angle and the more the Rmoney camp tries to clarify his postions the worse its going to get.
 
2012-04-30 11:30:21 AM

vernonFL: FIrst of all, the election isn't until November.

Second, THE ELECTION ISN'T UNTIL NOVEMBER.


I see your point. Obama typically starts climbing in the polls around September/October.
 
2012-04-30 11:30:50 AM

Arkanaut: Weaver95: I just can't see Romney winning against Obama. nothing from the Romney organization convinces me he can run an effective campaign.

I dunno -- he became the presumptive nominee by being much better than his opponents at not screwing up. There's some value to that in a campaign. .


yeah, but Romney is merely better than the other GOP hopefuls...and that isn't saying much. ANYONE would be better than that pack of nutballs. dear god - they made Ron Paul seem like the sane choice! I mean I like the guy but he's half insane.
 
2012-04-30 11:30:59 AM

fringedmyotis: qorkfiend: Since a Romney administration's agenda wouldn't be dictated by Romney's policy preferences but instead by the extremist Republicans in Congress, yes, it makes a very big difference.

Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but if his policies were more like (some) of the stuff he did as governor - stuff which he's tried hard to distance himself from in the campaign, granted - then he would indeed be a moderate. Can you imagine the lulz if he's elected and turns out to reasonable & moderate? The teahadists in congress would completely lose it. Now that would be amusing to watch - congress go after a sitting president in their own party.


When he was governor, Romney had to deal with a solidly Democratic legislature.

Romney personally might be reasonable and moderate. The stuff the GOP Congress sends him will not be, and Romney will not veto it.
 
2012-04-30 11:31:27 AM

Arkanaut: I dunno -- he became the presumptive nominee by being much better than his opponents at not screwing up. There's some value to that in a campaign. He's also been quick to strike back any time he gets attacked, making sure that the attack on him doesn't stay in the news cycle too long. He really has just two main weaknesses in the general election: 1) any time the campaign requires him to interact with regular people, he shows how awkward -- and IMO even disdainful -- he can be; and 2) the derpiness of the Republican Party as a whole, which he hasn't shown he can shake off. McCain at least took a principle stand on torture, and publicly rebuked people who tried to make Obama's perceived religion an issue; Romney hasn't shown that he has that kind of backbone.


3) He's still carrying the weight of the Bush legacy. There's a reason why the GOP have locked up Bush in an undisclosed cave, the general public still blame him for the recession. He doesn't have any alternatives to Obama's policies that don't basically equate to Bush's policies on steroids.
 
2012-04-30 11:32:09 AM

theorellior: WombatControl: I know the Fark Liberal™ community

Look, if you're gonna try to be a borderline troll who sometimes posts interesting or intelligent commentary, try not to emulate the League of Fail when they lamely attempt to co-opt liberal jokes.


WC is a member of the League of Fail, though.
 
2012-04-30 11:33:06 AM

BillCo: Well, I guess it's official then. Some hack at a lefty rag thinks Romney doesn't stand a chance. We might as well just not have the election and leave Obama in office for another 4 years.


Sounds good to me. You're a huge fan of Obama too, I guess. That's awesome!

*high five*
 
2012-04-30 11:33:06 AM
What I think has been amazing is that already the rhetoric has been ratched-up to near pants-crapping intensity and it isn't even the Summer yet. They haven't even started the debates.

If I were in the news business I would demand all employees take their vacation and sick days now because once the Fall hits it's going to go full-retard.
 
2012-04-30 11:33:31 AM

Cletus C.: The economy will determine who wins this election.


Very vague. The only economy only gets a say if it tanks. If it declines slightly, holds or improves, Obama wins. If it tanks he doesn't.
 
2012-04-30 11:35:28 AM
Eh... a tad early for this kind of stuff, but yeah, Romney's got a hard row to hoe if he wants to win.

First, the guy is obviously completely out of touch with what the average American is facing these days when it comes to the economy. It's obvious this pampered plutocrat has never struggled a day in his life.

Second, what exactly are Romney's positions beyond "I know what it takes to create jobs", "I'm not a black guy with a funny name" and "Like all Republicans before me, I will continue the failed policies of Trickle Down Economics and screw the poor and working poor every chance I get"?

For me, this election comes down to two questions:

Which party is, at the very least, attempting to address and correct the problems which are overwhelmingly hurting the poor, working poor and middle classes in this country?

Which party has done nothing but defend the wealthiest Americans and Corporations while demanding the poor, working poor and Middle Classes pay for the excesses, crimes and avarice of the wealthy elite?
 
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