The polls and speculation from the media who seems desperate for a close race and will try to do anything they can to get one is not reliable. The media was telling us 2008 was going to be close too all the way up to the end when Obama crushed McCain by 10 million votes. Later today we will have an article about how Obama is in trouble, the constant back and forth is what keeps people tuned in.

Mugato: whoops, wrong thread.

THIS!

/I don't know what I'm doing today.

The swing states are Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Current polling shows Obama leading in eight, Romney in three and three with new polling unavailable.

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As an unemployed job creator, I can only hope this nation comes to it's senses

hungryhungryhorus: As an unemployed job creator... Did you just divide by zero?

quatchi: The swing states are Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Current polling shows Obama leading in eight, Romney in three and three with new polling unavailable.


The fact that some of these are now "swing states" tells you everything you need to know. And that's that it's time to start buying stock in the manufacturers of Diebold voting machines.

Mugato: whoops, wrong thread.

Great way to start the thread though!

I never understood why Minnesota is considered a swing state when it has reliably voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election after 1972. I don't know what the Republicans would have to do to win Minnesota, but the change in public opinion required for that to happen would all but guarantee a Republican victory anyway, which is exactly opposite of what I'd call a swing state.

I wonder how many states are really in competition instead of the loose definition that would include Minnesota.

Gwyrddu: I never understood why Minnesota is considered a swing state when it has reliably voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election after 1972. I don't know what the Republicans would have to do to win Minnesota, but the change in public opinion required for that to happen would all but guarantee a Republican victory anyway, which is exactly opposite of what I'd call a swing state.

I wonder how many states are really in competition instead of the loose definition that would include Minnesota.

InTrade has Minnesota as 88% likely Democrat (Michigan as 87%, New Mexico 91%). I've gotta go with Headso's "manufactured close contests" rather than true "swing states"

BTW, Electoral Map has a good regularly updated map of how InTrade is tracking the different states.

Currently it's 250 D vs 146 R with 142 no data yet.

Some of those are close (51%, etc), but with heavily-blue states like those in New England not yet classified, it's heavily slanted toward Obama currently.

Of course, 6 months is a long time, so...

This is just another scam by 0bama. This guy will do anything to get reelected. He improved the economy in swing states just so he go win. I full expect him to try and do the same thing to rest of the country just so he can hang on to his illegal presidency for another 4 years.

EighthDay: Gwyrddu: I never understood why Minnesota is considered a swing state when it has reliably voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election after 1972. I don't know what the Republicans would have to do to win Minnesota, but the change in public opinion required for that to happen would all but guarantee a Republican victory anyway, which is exactly opposite of what I'd call a swing state.

I wonder how many states are really in competition instead of the loose definition that would include Minnesota.

InTrade has Minnesota as 88% likely Democrat (Michigan as 87%, New Mexico 91%). I've gotta go with Headso's "manufactured close contests" rather than true "swing states"

It's in a state's economic interests to be considered a swing state. The amount of money campaigns pour in is huge.

the article turned into a term paper on the electoral college there in the middle. how about a link to the wiki for it instead of another 7 paragraphs?

meat0918: It's in a state's economic interests to be considered a swing state. The amount of money campaigns pour in is huge.

Good point.

EighthDay: BTW, Electoral Map has a good regularly updated map of how InTrade is tracking the different states.

Currently it's 250 D vs 146 R with 142 no data yet.

Some of those are close (51%, etc), but with heavily-blue states like those in New England not yet classified, it's heavily slanted toward Obama currently.

Of course, 6 months is a long time, so...

Considering Illinois and its 20 electoral votes is listed without data, I'd feel fairly safe that's already showing Obama as taking 2012... but as you say, six months is a lifetime in presidential elections. Hell, I won't feel safe until October is over with.

Headso: The media was telling us 2008 was going to be close too all the way up to the end when Obama crushed McCain by 10 million votes

There are people who watch cable news programs, and there are those of us who read 538. The election was no surprise -- Nate Silver absolutely nailed it. The only unpredictable thing was the time at which they were going to call it for Obama.

DeltaPunch: Headso: The media was telling us 2008 was going to be close too all the way up to the end when Obama crushed McCain by 10 million votes

There are people who watch cable news programs, and there are those of us who read 538. The election was no surprise -- Nate Silver absolutely nailed it. The only unpredictable thing was the time at which they were going to call it for Obama.

Taking a quick look at the news coverage right now tells you exactly what kind of race this is going to be: it's all about ginning up manufactured outrage. The major storylines have been "GOP War on Women vs. Dem War on Moms" and "Romney puts dog on roof vs. Obama eats dog."

The reason is that there really is going to be nothing substantial at stake. Romney is a weak candidate with a wishy-washy agenda that is mostly talking points. The media is obliged to run with whatever paltry stories they have.

physt: This is just another scam by 0bama. This guy will do anything to get reelected. He improved the economy in swing states just so he go win. I full expect him to try and do the same thing to rest of the country just so he can hang on to his illegal presidency for another 4 years.

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DeltaPunch: There are people who watch cable news programs, and there are those of us who read 538. The election was no surprise -- Nate Silver absolutely nailed it. The only unpredictable thing was the time at which they were going to call it for Obama.

Nope - most of us called it I think at 11:05 or so when the CA/OR/WA polls closed.

If all of the states that "lean Obama" actually go for him, he'll only need Pennsylvania, Ohio and Iowa to win. It'll be an interesting campaign for the other 47 states to watch.

is the "...for Obama" thing supposed catch on as a meme or something? I don't get it.

HadrianM: is the "...for Obama" thing supposed catch on as a meme or something? I don't get it.

Where were you four years ago?

HadrianM: is the "...for Obama" thing supposed catch on as a meme or something? I don't get it.

It started sometime during 2008 during Obama/Clinton or Obama/McCain. Wish I remember who started it and the thread it was on.

Members of the US Supreme Court's right-wing obstructionist majority are already formulating their distorted misapplication of the law, so that when President Obama does get his 40 states in the Electoral College, the justices will know exactly which results to rule null and void.

Masterstuff: HadrianM: is the "...for Obama" thing supposed catch on as a meme or something? I don't get it.

It started sometime during 2008 during Obama/Clinton or Obama/McCain. Wish I remember who started it and the thread it was on.

In this case, I think subby's just phoning it in.

saintstryfe: DeltaPunch: There are people who watch cable news programs, and there are those of us who read 538. The election was no surprise -- Nate Silver absolutely nailed it. The only unpredictable thing was the time at which they were going to call it for Obama.

Nope - most of us called it I think at 11:05 or so when the CA/OR/WA polls closed.

I don't even think it was that long - OH, PA, and NC all went early in the evening. After that it seemed pretty clear that Obama was going to win.

HadrianM: is the "...for Obama" thing supposed catch on as a meme or something? I don't get it.

I think that this is the origin. Watch the video only if you have a few IQ points that you're willing to part with.

Arizona is a swing state now? Never thought I'd see that happen in my lifetime.

andrewagill: Masterstuff: HadrianM: is the "...for Obama" thing supposed catch on as a meme or something? I don't get it.

It started sometime during 2008 during Obama/Clinton or Obama/McCain. Wish I remember who started it and the thread it was on.

In this case, I think subby's just phoning it in.

Yeah. He should get with the times. Maybe a joke about Obama eating dogs.

/because, you see, he eats dogs

namatad: phritz: HadrianM: is the "...for Obama" thing supposed catch on as a meme or something? I don't get it.

I think that this is the origin. Watch the video only if you have a few IQ points that you're willing to part with.

I think the owrst part of the 2008 campaign for obama was when palin was picked as VP. that was clearly the deciding point where obama lost everything.

I thought it was much earlier, when McCain couldn't remember how many houses he owned, or when his campaign manager said that "John McCain does not speak for the John McCain campaign."

Coco LaFemme: Arizona is a swing state now? Never thought I'd see that happen in my lifetime.

I'm personally intrigued by the fact that Texas is at 60% probability of going Republican. I would love to feel like my vote matters a bit for once.

Edsel: saintstryfe: DeltaPunch: There are people who watch cable news programs, and there are those of us who read 538. The election was no surprise -- Nate Silver absolutely nailed it. The only unpredictable thing was the time at which they were going to call it for Obama.

Nope - most of us called it I think at 11:05 or so when the CA/OR/WA polls closed.

I don't even think it was that long - OH, PA, and NC all went early in the evening. After that it seemed pretty clear that Obama was going to win.

Um, NC didn't call it for Obama until days AFTER the election was already over.

namatad: physt: He improved the economy in swing states just so he go win.

what color is the sky in your world?

The color of sarcasm?

DeltaPunch: Headso: The media was telling us 2008 was going to be close too all the way up to the end when Obama crushed McCain by 10 million votes

There are people who watch cable news programs, and there are those of us who read 538. The election was no surprise -- Nate Silver absolutely nailed it. The only unpredictable thing was the time at which they were going to call it for Obama.

For those of us following Nate Silver and 538 in 2008, there was no question about the final results, just which way Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, and Nebraska's Omaha district would go. McCain was only ahead during his convention, and that dropped when the Real Sarah Palin started talking.

Actually, it is a bad thing. The better off Americans are, the stupider and more complacent they become, and they go right back to voting for Republicans.

hungryhungryhorus: As an unemployed jobapostrophe creator, I can only hope this nation comes to it's senses

But then again, we're all job creators. As a consumer you drive employment far more than you could ever do as an employer.