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(SB Nation)   Re-evaluating the Carson Palmer trade in hindsight   (bayarea.sbnation.com) divider line 54
    More: Interesting, Carson Palmer, Raiders, Vernon Gholston, draft pick, NFL Draft, Redskins, JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young  
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3934 clicks; posted to Sports » on 20 Apr 2012 at 12:04 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-04-20 12:08:16 PM
I think Palmer has been through since he got hurt in the playoffs years ago against the Steelers. The Raiders gave up an awful lot for what appears to be a QB on the rapid downside of his career. Unbelievably, props to Mike Brown for pulling this one off for the Bengals.
 
2012-04-20 12:15:53 PM
Shame what happened to Campbell. I loved him when he was with the Skins, I believe he could've been a great quarterback if he had a decent front line in Washington. Now he faces being the backup QB in Chicago, which I suppose is better than nothing.

Actually ran into him while on vacation in MS a few weeks ago and told him this. He seemed to appreciate my candor, and was a helluva nice guy.

/Would trade both Grossman and Beck to have Campbell back up RG3 (or Luck)
 
2012-04-20 12:16:49 PM
Subby, you can use hindsight, or you can re-evaluate. No need for both.
 
2012-04-20 12:17:53 PM
Author omits the fact that Carson Palmer is washed up and hadn't played in over a year.
 
2012-04-20 12:26:30 PM
Well that was overly optimistic. I'm surprised he left out "oh, and that time machine we purchased from Germany, which is currently held up in customs, should finally arrive next week so we can transport the pre-2005 Carson Palmer onto our roster".
 
2012-04-20 12:27:22 PM
Yeah, top 5 picks are totally overrated in the 2006-2009 period. Tell that to Mario Williams, Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Jake Long, Matt Ryan, and Matthew Stafford. Bums, the lot of them.

/It's all a farkin' crapshoot
 
2012-04-20 12:29:33 PM
Wow, there's spin, and then there's "affect the rotation of the earth" spin.

I love how he cherry picks his "top 5 picks from '06-09" as well. No mention of Mario Williams, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Jake Long, Chris Long, Matt Ryan, Darren McFadden, and Matt Stafford, all of whom were top 5 picks during that stretch as well.
 
2012-04-20 12:30:25 PM

Ken VeryBigLiar: Yeah, top 5 picks are totally overrated in the 2006-2009 period. Tell that to Mario Williams, Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Jake Long, Matt Ryan, and Matthew Stafford. Bums, the lot of them.

/It's all a farkin' crapshoot


Not if you're a Rooney.
 
2012-04-20 12:31:06 PM
What kind of farkwittery is this?

Sure, you can find a franchise player in the first round, but more often than not, you will find a bust or an underachiever at the NFL level.

over a period of four years, but I was easily able to find six guys who did not come anywhere near living up to what their pre draft potential was said to be.


4 years of top 5 picks = 20 players
6 of those players underachieved, although 3 of them are legitimate starters.

So with a top 5 pick you have an 85% chance of getting a starter. That apparently means top 5 picks more often than not turn out to be busts.

/oh, SB Nation. that explains it
 
2012-04-20 12:31:32 PM

Poison: I think Palmer has been through since he got hurt in the playoffs years ago against the Steelers. The Raiders gave up an awful lot for what appears to be a QB on the rapid downside of his career. Unbelievably, props to Mike Brown for pulling this one off for the Bengals.


Brown got a lot of help from the Raiders Front Office, since it is populated with retards, starting with Al Davis, when he was alive.
 
2012-04-20 12:33:18 PM

Ken VeryBigLiar: Yeah, top 5 picks are totally overrated in the 2006-2009 period. Tell that to Mario Williams, Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Jake Long, Matt Ryan, and Matthew Stafford. Bums, the lot of them.

/It's all a farkin' crapshoot


Exactly. For that time frame he mentions, the bust rate is like 25%, maybe 30% if you're pessimistic about guys like Glenn Dorsey or Mark Sanchez. But go find the bust rate of the first five of the second round, or any other stretch of 5 picks for that matter. Guarantee you it's going to be more than 25%.
 
2012-04-20 12:35:33 PM

Jubeebee: What kind of farkwittery is this?

Sure, you can find a franchise player in the first round, but more often than not, you will find a bust or an underachiever at the NFL level.

over a period of four years, but I was easily able to find six guys who did not come anywhere near living up to what their pre draft potential was said to be.

4 years of top 5 picks = 20 players
6 of those players underachieved, although 3 of them are legitimate starters.

So with a top 5 pick you have an 85% chance of getting a starter. That apparently means top 5 picks more often than not turn out to be busts.

/oh, SB Nation. that explains it


I came here to say this.
 
2012-04-20 12:36:24 PM

2wolves: Not if you're a Rooney.


Well, it's still a crapshoot. They've just proven themselves to be pretty solid craps players. They have bad rolls just like anyone, but on balance they are way ahead of the house.
 
2012-04-20 12:38:13 PM

Dinobot: Poison: I think Palmer has been through since he got hurt in the playoffs years ago against the Steelers. The Raiders gave up an awful lot for what appears to be a QB on the rapid downside of his career. Unbelievably, props to Mike Brown for pulling this one off for the Bengals.

Brown got a lot of help from the Raiders Front Office, since it is populated with retards, starting with Al Davis, when he was alive.


Very true. I couldn't believe I actually gave Brown credit for something.
 
2012-04-20 12:38:30 PM
/it's hard to be a Raiders fan
//Just Win Baby!
 
2012-04-20 12:43:33 PM

JohnBigBootay: Subby, you can use hindsight, or you can re-evaluate. No need for both.


In retrospect, I've re-evaluated what you just said, and agree, in hindsight.
 
2012-04-20 12:45:27 PM

Poison: Dinobot: Poison: I think Palmer has been through since he got hurt in the playoffs years ago against the Steelers. The Raiders gave up an awful lot for what appears to be a QB on the rapid downside of his career. Unbelievably, props to Mike Brown for pulling this one off for the Bengals.

Brown got a lot of help from the Raiders Front Office, since it is populated with retards, starting with Al Davis, when he was alive.

Very true. I couldn't believe I actually gave Brown credit for something.


Yeah, you really can't call yourself a master conman if all you did was convince a kid with down syndrome to trade you a 20 dollar bill for a 3 dollar gag bill.
 
2012-04-20 12:45:40 PM
TFA can be summed up in four words: "Read my wishful thinking!"
 
2012-04-20 12:48:13 PM

Jubeebee: What kind of farkwittery is this?

Sure, you can find a franchise player in the first round, but more often than not, you will find a bust or an underachiever at the NFL level.

over a period of four years, but I was easily able to find six guys who did not come anywhere near living up to what their pre draft potential was said to be.

4 years of top 5 picks = 20 players
6 of those players underachieved, although 3 of them are legitimate starters.

So with a top 5 pick you have an 85% chance of getting a starter. That apparently means top 5 picks more often than not turn out to be busts.

/oh, SB Nation. that explains it


And I'll say that one of those picks, AJ Hawk, is pretty much exactly what the pre-draft scouting said he would be. A solid player that could start right away and fill the position for the next 10 years. He's halfway there already.

There was very little talk about him being an annual pro-bowler.
 
2012-04-20 12:54:09 PM
On behalf of all Bengals fans, methinks we need a special thank you for this guy for getting the Raiders to mortgage their future for our past. He earned that spot he has on our coaching staff now.

www.raidersgab.com

/Whodey!
 
2012-04-20 12:58:39 PM

MmmCrime: Shame what happened to Campbell. I loved him when he was with the Skins, I believe he could've been a great quarterback if he had a decent front line in Washington. Now he faces being the backup QB in Chicago, which I suppose is better than nothing.

Actually ran into him while on vacation in MS a few weeks ago and told him this. He seemed to appreciate my candor, and was a helluva nice guy.

/Would trade both Grossman and Beck to have Campbell back up RG3 (or Luck)


The Bears just got a hell of a backup QB in Campbell. Can't do much better than that. Lord knows, the Bears need to have a backup who can play in the NFL if they want to make the playoffs.

/Bears fan
//It will be fun to see the Hanie-led Donks once Manning breaks his neck again.
 
2012-04-20 01:00:51 PM

basemetal: /it's hard to be a Raiders fan
//Just Win Baby!


Naw man. You just have to think about excellence through the decades. The Raiders will be back. Hell, they're closer than plenty of teams right now.
 
2012-04-20 01:08:12 PM

jayhawk88: Wow, there's spin, and then there's "affect the rotation of the earth" spin.

I love how he cherry picks his "top 5 picks from '06-09" as well. No mention of Mario Williams, D'Brickashaw Ferguson*, Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Jake Long, Chris Long, Matt Ryan, Darren McFadden, and Matt Stafford, all of whom were top 5 picks during that stretch as well.



*worth the pick just by his name
 
2012-04-20 01:08:59 PM
A Raiders fan trying to convince himself the Palmer trade was a good deal. hehe

/As a Bengals fan, I happy he's gone and understand the "whatever you have to tell yourself" feeling.
 
2012-04-20 01:09:48 PM
Article looked like a bunch of blah blah blah, what's the upshot?
 
2012-04-20 01:19:18 PM

Xaro: A Raiders fan trying to convince himself the Palmer trade was a good deal. hehe


The only people saying that these days are schmucks like this writer, Mark Davis and Amy Trask. If they found him tomorrow in the Bay with a pair of cemenet shoes I'd be the last to show sympathy. And why they didn't go all Mussolini on Jackson before he skipped town is beyond me.
 
2012-04-20 01:23:33 PM
I see the Palmer deal as a win-win for all parties involved. The Raiders got a last-minute replacement for an injured Jason Campbell(no, they didn't get the overall outcome they wanted, but they didn't do too shabby given the options they had at the time), Palmer never has to work for Mike Borwn again, and Mike Brown has enough draft picks to replace Dalton and Green when they ask to be paid what they'd make on any other team, and they will, and he WILL send them packing.

/former Bengals fan
/Enjoy Miami in a few years, Dalton
 
2012-04-20 01:29:15 PM
The author is 100% correct in his assertion that most top draft picks are busts. You just have to keep in mind that he's saying that in relation to the Raiders.
 
2012-04-20 01:29:39 PM
Sending Palmer to the Raiders was the equivalent of detonating a unexploded bomb - better to do it when nothing of substance will be harmed.
 
2012-04-20 01:38:08 PM

Harv72b: The author is 100% correct in his assertion that most top draft picks are busts. You just have to keep in mind that he's saying that in relation to the Raiders.


Ah, now it makes sense. It's a great trade because the Raiders would blow the pick(s) anyway.
 
2012-04-20 01:42:26 PM

EyeballKid: I see the Palmer deal as a win-win for all parties involved. The Raiders got a last-minute replacement for an injured Jason Campbell(no, they didn't get the overall outcome they wanted, but they didn't do too shabby given the options they had at the time), Palmer never has to work for Mike Borwn again, and Mike Brown has enough draft picks to replace Dalton and Green when they ask to be paid what they'd make on any other team, and they will, and he WILL send them packing.

/former Bengals fan
/Enjoy Miami in a few years, Dalton


He paid Carson. Handsomely.
 
2012-04-20 01:53:04 PM
Does it negatively impact the Raiders? If so, it gets a pass from me.

/Go Broncos
//My washed-up quarterback can beat up your washed-up quarterback
 
2012-04-20 02:11:00 PM

Ken VeryBigLiar: Yeah, top 5 picks are totally overrated in the 2006-2009 period. Tell that to Mario Williams, Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Jake Long, Matt Ryan, and Matthew Stafford. Bums, the lot of them.

/It's all a farkin' crapshoot


jayhawk88: Wow, there's spin, and then there's "affect the rotation of the earth" spin.

I love how he cherry picks his "top 5 picks from '06-09" as well. No mention of Mario Williams, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Jake Long, Chris Long, Matt Ryan, Darren McFadden, and Matt Stafford, all of whom were top 5 picks during that stretch as well.


And on top of that, with the new CBA, high picks get you cost-controlled potential impact players.
 
2012-04-20 02:38:24 PM

Crewmannumber6: Article looked like a bunch of blah blah blah, what's the upshot?


The Raiders are still hilarious.
 
2012-04-20 02:45:11 PM
1.bp.blogspot.com
 
2012-04-20 03:24:16 PM

JohnBigBootay: basemetal: /it's hard to be a Raiders fan
//Just Win Baby!

Naw man. You just have to think about excellence through the decades. The Raiders will be back. Hell, they're closer than plenty of teams right now.


I was a Raiders fan before it was cool to be a Raiders fan, before madden was madden, i'm not going anywhere.
 
2012-04-20 03:29:28 PM
I remember hearing this kind of talk before. It was about a washed-up QB named Plunkett. Washed out with the Patriots, washed out with the 49ers. They couldn't wait to get rid of him, and we were more than happy to take him, although it was criticized as a stupid move by everyone. That was before Super Bowls XV & XVIII, though.

Sure, it was lower-risk than trading draft picks, but the term "washed up" is thrown around a little too casually. In that Chargers game at the end of the year, he threw for the 3rd most yards in Raiders history. We improve the defense even a little, and Palmer will take us there.
 
2012-04-20 03:41:36 PM

DJAkeeba: I remember hearing this kind of talk before. It was about a washed-up QB named Plunkett. Washed out with the Patriots, washed out with the 49ers. They couldn't wait to get rid of him, and we were more than happy to take him, although it was criticized as a stupid move by everyone. That was before Super Bowls XV & XVIII, though.

Sure, it was lower-risk than trading draft picks, but the term "washed up" is thrown around a little too casually. In that Chargers game at the end of the year, he threw for the 3rd most yards in Raiders history. We improve the defense even a little, and Palmer will take us there.


farm4.staticflickr.com

Enjoy your copy of the Official Oakland Raiders Media Guide for 2012
 
2012-04-20 03:49:55 PM

basemetal: I was a Raiders fan before it was cool to be a Raiders fan, before madden was madden, i'm not going anywhere.


Good for you. Lots of team switchers around here. I don't get it - it's never as sweet with your second choice, I don't care what anyone says.
 
2012-04-20 03:59:11 PM

Harv72b: DJAkeeba: I remember hearing this kind of talk before. It was about a washed-up QB named Plunkett. Washed out with the Patriots, washed out with the 49ers. They couldn't wait to get rid of him, and we were more than happy to take him, although it was criticized as a stupid move by everyone. That was before Super Bowls XV & XVIII, though.

Sure, it was lower-risk than trading draft picks, but the term "washed up" is thrown around a little too casually. In that Chargers game at the end of the year, he threw for the 3rd most yards in Raiders history. We improve the defense even a little, and Palmer will take us there.

[farm4.staticflickr.com image 320x480]

Enjoy your copy of the Official Oakland Raiders Media Guide for 2012


lmfao
 
2012-04-20 04:09:28 PM

basemetal: I was a Raiders fan before it was cool to be a Raiders fan, before madden was madden, i'm not going anywhere.


I was a Steelers fan before Bradshaw was drafted. Miss the matchups where Oakland was a worthy foe. Black and Gold vs. Black and Silver
 
2012-04-20 05:13:06 PM
Well yeah, when your yardstick for measuring whether you overpaid is the deal that Washington made for MagicBeans, you might think that the deal for Palmer was a bargain.
 
2012-04-20 05:29:03 PM

basemetal: I was a Raiders fan before it was cool to be a Raiders fan, before madden was madden, i'm not going anywhere.


Before that, how long were you in for?
 
2012-04-20 05:52:11 PM
#1 picks a certainly overrated by most until you are 3 years down the road and see what he other team usually didn't do with those picks. a ton of nfl fans seriously fetishize the draft. they see every potential pick as a future all pro.

but that doesn't mean that wasn't a spectacularly awful trade. palmer hasn't really been more than a mediocre QB since his injury and he looks like he'll never return to form. moreover it seems like the only time he plays well now is almost always after his team is already screwed, partly because of his shiat play earlier in the game.
you trade two number ones for a young guy with an amazing arm like cutler.
for a few dollars more you could have got RG3 this year.
palmer wasn't worth half that price, and it's hard to even imagine who besides the raiders were even bidding.
 
2012-04-20 05:56:22 PM
The Bengal fan in me thinks this story is about 7 days premature. Let's wait and see what the Stripes get for that Raiders draft pick. if they get a starting guard and maybe a good corner with #17 and #21, it's a win. But if Mike Brown "thinks" too much, watch out.
 
2012-04-20 06:03:41 PM
and yes that's from the Bengals side, which even if we get a 'Gholston', the trade's a win. For the Raiders, still way too early to tell. So... kinda pointless. That's SBNation!
 
2012-04-20 07:45:00 PM
Carson Palmer has yet to play a single down with Darren McFadden...think about that for a minute. Raiders finish 10-6 and will make the playoffs...

Reggie McKenzie is in charge now....just ask Green Bay Packer fans how well he ran their organization the last 15 years. The man knows talent....Raiders own the AFC west for the next decade.
 
2012-04-20 08:01:23 PM

CognaciousThunk: The Bengal fan in me thinks this story is about 7 days premature. Let's wait and see what the Stripes get for that Raiders draft pick. if they get a starting guard and maybe a good corner with #17 and #21, it's a win. But if Mike Brown "thinks" too much, watch out.


They've drafted well recently, and it looks like things might fall just right for them...
 
2012-04-20 09:22:05 PM

basemetal: JohnBigBootay: basemetal: /it's hard to be a Raiders fan
//Just Win Baby!

Naw man. You just have to think about excellence through the decades. The Raiders will be back. Hell, they're closer than plenty of teams right now.

I was a Raiders fan before it was cool to be a Raiders fan, before madden was madden, i'm not going anywhere.


Good for you, even though I hate the Raiders.

It kind of pisses me off when some posters on FARK have 2 or 3 different teams and like to talk shiat about them, depending on which way the wind blows.
 
2012-04-20 09:42:47 PM
Anyone who uses the term "all star" when talking football doesn't know what the fark they are talking about.
 
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