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(NPR)   Get ready for the 2080 Census. First question: "What is your current sex?"   (npr.org) divider line 161
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15395 clicks; posted to Main » on 15 Apr 2012 at 1:56 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-04-15 02:45:31 PM  
I think Idiocracy is a bit more realistic than what's in that article, partially because so much of it already rings true.
 
2012-04-15 02:45:31 PM  
But.. but they forgot the mosy important one. Peak oil! Whar's peak oil?
 
2012-04-15 02:46:20 PM  
www.underconsideration.com
 
2012-04-15 02:46:49 PM  
I kid you not...while in the park with my kids the other day two moms were talking about their transgender toddlers and which child showed the most signs of being transgender. It's going to be the new trend. Get ready to laugh cry and be horrified at the insanity.
 
2012-04-15 02:47:04 PM  

12349876: namatad: If only there were a number of trivial ways to turn saline water into drinking water.
dumbass "problem" created by the people who brought you global warming.

I'm not agreeing with the author that things with water will get that bad, but right now desal is very expensive and uses a lot of energy. Fine for desert islands like Aruba, but not a solution for growing corn in Nebraska. Maybe the tech gets better.


the only reason that they waste so much water growing corn in nebraska right now is that the water is effectively FREE.
in countries where there is less water for irrigation, they use a variety of conservation methods to water, rather than just spraying the water in the air.
Link (new window)

yes, this is expensive to do. but it will happen on the day that it becomes cost effective.
If this were really a problem, nebraska would be addressing this by slowly increasing the price of water to farmers.
hahahahaha no they wouldnt, but that would be the method to slowly and cheaply address the problem over a long period of time. so it will never happen.

pretty much the water problem will be solve exactly like every scarcity problem has been solved since day 1.
prices will get higher, until we hit a threshold. once that threshold is hit, it becomes economically viable to do something new.
water conservation, desal, waste water recycling, what not

why isnt the output of the waste treatment plants input into the water supply plants?
until that actually happens, we arent even CLOSE to getting low on water.
 
2012-04-15 02:47:33 PM  

swingerofbirches: I think Idiocracy is a bit more realistic than what's in that article, partially because so much of it already rings true.


I was hoping for some Ghost in the Shell cyberpunk badassery.
 
2012-04-15 02:48:21 PM  

Oznog: In the year 2525
If man is still alive
If woman can survive
They may find

In the year 3535
Ain't gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lies
Everything you think, do, or say
Is in the pill you took today

In the year 4545
Ain't gonna need your teeth, won't need your eyes
You won't find a thing to do
Nobody's gonna look at you

In the year 5555
Your arms are hanging limp at your sides
Your legs not nothing to do
Some machine is doing that for you

In the year 6565
Ain't gonna need no husband, won't need no wife
You'll pick your son, pick your daughter too
From the bottom of a long black tube

In the year 7510
If God's a-comin' he ought to make it by then
Maybe he'll look around himself and say
Guess it's time for the Judgement day

In the year 8510
God's gonna shake his mighty head
He'll either say I'm pleased where man has been
Or tear it down and start again

In the year 9595
I'm kinda wondering if man's gonna be alive
He's taken everything this old earth can give
And he ain't put back nothing

Now it's been 10,000 years
Man has cried a billion tears
For what he never knew
Now man's reign is through
But through the eternal night
The twinkling of starlight
So very far away
Maybe it's only yesterday

In the year 2525
If man is still alive
If woman can survive
They may find

In the year 3535
Ain't gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lies
Everything you think, do or say
Is in the pill you took today ...

/also, mankind is enslaved by giraffes


ZOMG
one of my favorite bad songs from the my youth!!
 
2012-04-15 02:48:35 PM  

Dustin_00: Why is this scary?

If you're afraid of other people changing their sex, your problem is you.


Census in the US determines funding for 'special needs' groups.

Should gender be removed from the census, and treated like sexual orientation (which is not currently asked)? It's nobody's business but your own what your gender is today?

Or should more categories be added for gender, so that 'special needs' groups like transsexuals can be better kept track of and better have their needs funded for?

/should sexual orientation be included on the census for the same reason, or left out?
//should race be removed from the census?
 
2012-04-15 02:49:32 PM  
Found a quote from Idiocracy, not the funniest one, but a good overview quote:

"The years passed, mankind became stupider at a frightening rate. Some had high hopes the genetic engineering would correct this trend in evolution, but sadly the greatest minds and resources where focused on conquering hair loss and prolonging erections."
 
2012-04-15 02:51:22 PM  

swingerofbirches: Found a quote from Idiocracy, not the funniest one, but a good overview quote:

"The years passed, mankind became stupider at a frightening rate. Some had high hopes the genetic engineering would correct this trend in evolution, but sadly the greatest minds and resources where focused on conquering hair loss and prolonging erections."


I've never seen it, so you came thiiiiiiiis close to owing me a new keyboard.
 
2012-04-15 02:52:27 PM  
why isnt the output of the waste treatment plants input into the water supply plants?
until that actually happens, we arent even CLOSE to getting low on water.

Exactly! I hear we just got a fresh shipment from Fukuchiyama too!

Not as if it has anything in it a simple filter can't get rid of..right?

...What's this strange lump?
 
2012-04-15 02:53:25 PM  

Rakishi: 12349876: I'm not agreeing with the author that things with water will get that bad, but right now desal is very expensive and uses a lot of energy. Fine for desert islands like Aruba, but not a solution for growing corn in Nebraska. Maybe the tech gets better

Then stop growing so much corn.

And frankly, the bigger issue for corn will be the lack of cheap fertilizers which modern corn guzzles faster than an alcoholic does 3 for 1 beer specials.

Between genetic engineering, algae and who knows what else it's not really an insurmountable problem. Although I give 50/50 odds that the US will starve to death due to corn lobbying keeping them from shifting till it's too late.


The big issue I see is that it will be hard to feed our current and possibly growing population IF IF IF IF IF we can only grow edible things near the ocean. Not saying that's inevitable, I'm not dooming and glooming, just pointing out some potential issues. Maybe we can conserve and tech our way out, maybe our population naturally goes down, just saying water is an important issue to figure out in the next century.
 
2012-04-15 02:56:27 PM  

ExperianScaresCthulhu: If people can legally change their gender and get away with it


Exactly what does "get away with it" mean in this context? Is there some sort of fraud related to changing genders?
 
2012-04-15 02:57:00 PM  
Of course, then, as now, the only constitutional reason for the census will be to determine representation in Congress, so they can figure out my current sex on their own.
 
2012-04-15 03:00:03 PM  

JasonOfOrillia: Haven't you ever had the desire to experience sex as a member of the opposite sex? I wouldn't because that is too ghey but if you went "woman" I would totally do you.


Not really, especially if it involves lopping off my dick, shredding it and pasting it back on my crotch
 
2012-04-15 03:00:48 PM  
www.wearysloth.com

Subby's mom mates out of season.
 
2012-04-15 03:03:37 PM  

Rakishi: 12349876: I'm not agreeing with the author that things with water will get that bad, but right now desal is very expensive and uses a lot of energy. Fine for desert islands like Aruba, but not a solution for growing corn in Nebraska. Maybe the tech gets better

Then stop growing so much corn.

And frankly, the bigger issue for corn will be the lack of cheap fertilizers which modern corn guzzles faster than an alcoholic does 3 for 1 beer specials.

Between genetic engineering, algae and who knows what else it's not really an insurmountable problem. Although I give 50/50 odds that the US will starve to death due to corn lobbying keeping them from shifting till it's too late.


hahahahahah
this has been predicted since day one. and yet we never seem to starve.
whenever the prognosticators are asked how and why they were so wrong in predicting the mass starvations, they hem and haw and extend the date another 10-20 years. AND THEN we are all gonna die.

not going to happen.
I wonder what percentage of food is currently thrown into the trash in US. FFS, people can live a long time on rice and beans. they wont be happy. they will MISS their steak and chicken. but they will learn to eat what they can afford. like the rest of the world.

the idea that we will starve is so 1970s
the pop bomb (new window)
and yet tards tell me that I am the one with my head in the sand??? LOL
 
2012-04-15 03:05:38 PM  

way south:
The problem isn't just water, its getting cheap water.
Making ocean water drinkable requires lots of power. Which means you'll have a hard time using that to maintain crops or clean city streets in the current energy crisis.
More expensive food, less sanatary conditions, becomes the primer for spreading diseases and civil unrest.

That could be a problem in many nations.


We already have cheap ways to turn saltwater in freshwater. We have solved our immediate energy problems as well with all the various options available today. It is human nature to squeeze as much $ out of the old business model before switching to the new one though, so we are choosing not to use the new methods. We already have desalination plants, the energy problem is simple.

They are next to the ocean, so a good portion of the power required can come straight from tidal generators. You can also grow saltwater algae in vertical algae farms for bio-fuel on site. You can put up wind and solar generators around the plant as well. There is the Bloom box (while not all that revolutionary) when coupled with the discovery of a new strain of algae that can produce 400% its body weight in hydrogen, then you get a nearly free fuel source to operate the bloom boxes, which then makes them very attractive. When you combine all the different fairly inexpensive methods to obtain the power needed to run a desalination plant, the water it makes doesn't end up costing much if anything. 1 alternative energy method isn't going to solve the problem, but being next to the ocean gives you the ability to use several good methods. Ideal world the desalination plant would generate enough electricity to feed not only itself, but the grid as well, along with providing clean water for free, all the while having near zero impact on the environment.
 
2012-04-15 03:06:08 PM  

profplump: ExperianScaresCthulhu: If people can legally change their gender and get away with it

Exactly what does "get away with it" mean in this context? Is there some sort of fraud related to changing genders?


Yeah. Trans women can't bear children and trans men can't shoot sperm.
 
2012-04-15 03:06:12 PM  
Ehrlich writes: "I don't see how India could possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980."[5] This view was widely held at the time, as another statement of his, later in the book: "I have yet to meet anyone familiar with the situation who thinks that India will be self-sufficient in food by 1971." In the book's 1971 edition, the latter prediction was removed, as the food situation in India suddenly improved.
As of 2010, India had almost 1.2 billion people, having nearly tripled its population from around 400 million in 1960. India's Total Fertility Rate in 2008 was calculated to be 2.6.[22] While the absolute numbers of malnourished children in India is high,[23] the rates of malnutrition and poverty in India have declined from approximately 90% at the time of India's independence, to less than 40% today. Ehrlich's prediction about famines were found to be false, although food security is an issue in India. However, most epidemiologists, public health physicians and demographers identify corruption as the chief cause of malnutrition, not "overpopulation".[24] As Nobel Prize winning economist Amartya Sen noted, India frequently had famines during British colonial rule. However, when India became a democracy, there have been no recorded famines.[25]
Journalist Dan Gardner has criticized Ehrlich both for his over-confident predictions and his refusal to acknowledge his errors. "In two lengthy interviews, Ehrlich admitted making not a single major error in the popular works he published in the late 1960s and early 1970s ... the only flat-out mistake Ehrlich acknowledges is missing the destruction of the rain forests, which happens to be a point that supports and strengthens his world view-and is therefore, in cognitive dissonance terms, not a mistake at all. Beyond that, he was by his account, off a little here and there, but only because the information he got from others was wrong. Basically, he was right across the board."[26]

if I rewrite my book and pretend everything that I predicted came true, then I am still a genius.

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU ehrlich. please STFU and die already. you have done enough destruction to the world with your lies and false predictions.
 
2012-04-15 03:07:04 PM  

profplump: ExperianScaresCthulhu: If people can legally change their gender and get away with it

Exactly what does "get away with it" mean in this context? Is there some sort of fraud related to changing genders?


It means a little more than 'if people can legally change their race and get away with it'.

Race is a social construct and is not real. The consequences of changing one's socially accepted race are very real, but race itself is not real. Gender is different. It's biology and is real. That's currently. What happens in the future, when gender is no longer biology, but social construct? How should it be officially accounted for, or should it be ignored like orientation?
 
2012-04-15 03:07:05 PM  

maxheck: ZAZ:

"In five years the penis will be obsolete," said the salesman.

Came for the Varley reference, leaving satisfied.


As did I; leaving tingling.

/"Steel Beach," if anyone's wondering
 
2012-04-15 03:09:30 PM  

namatad: FFS, people currently buy bottled farking water to drink.
Water would have to become scarce for there to be a meaningful impact on pricing.
Long before that we would have massive desalination plant construction.


People with money can waste it on bottled water.
Nations with money can afford desal plants and the energy to run them.

Nations without money or with a floundering government can barely manage indoor plumbing, and many of those places are where the population is growing fastest.

With our own aquifers already under stress to provide for the agricultural needs we have, and more people on the way, this will be a daunting challenge for the mainland US.
We've got the option to use nuclear power at least.

For people elsewhere, getting all that equipment on a similar scale could be an impossible goal.
Droughts and crop failures have wiped out civilizations in the past. Its not so far fetched that it could happen now.
 
2012-04-15 03:10:15 PM  

dawnofdaycare: I kid you not...while in the park with my kids the other day two moms were talking about their transgender toddlers and which child showed the most signs of being transgender. It's going to be the new trend. Get ready to laugh cry and be horrified at the insanity.


Didn't the doctors used to just hack it off without consult?
 
2012-04-15 03:11:11 PM  

ExperianScaresCthulhu: profplump: ExperianScaresCthulhu: If people can legally change their gender and get away with it

Exactly what does "get away with it" mean in this context? Is there some sort of fraud related to changing genders?

It means a little more than 'if people can legally change their race and get away with it'.

Race is a social construct and is not real. The consequences of changing one's socially accepted race are very real, but race itself is not real. Gender is different. It's biology and is real. That's currently. What happens in the future, when gender is no longer biology, but social construct? How should it be officially accounted for, or should it be ignored like orientation?


Even if you grant that premise, there's nothing about that imagined change that would necessitate changing the way it is accounted for.
 
2012-04-15 03:14:09 PM  

namatad: snip


Congratulations on utterly utterly missing the point of what I said. Marvelous, damn marvelous.
 
2012-04-15 03:20:10 PM  
Considering that there is no real expectation of privacy online and the internet is starting to be seen as a utility/public resource than a luxury; I predict that there would be no census - the data is already collected and filed, updated with webcrawlers or any submitted information that passes through the ISPs unencrypted.
 
2012-04-15 03:21:03 PM  
ExperianScaresCthulhu

And just to clarify. Sex is biological, gender identification is psychological. Importantly, the latter in particular can be just as immutable as something like skin colour. Further, neither are "social constructs" per se - what is a social construct is the idea that your gender identification somehow must be based on your biological sex at birth. The only change would be (if anything) an existing social construct being done away with. Sex and gender would still be sex and gender.
 
2012-04-15 03:25:03 PM  
What if you're considered a homo superior?
 
2012-04-15 03:26:18 PM  

Ace25: We already have cheap ways to turn saltwater in freshwater. We have solved our immediate energy problems as well with all the various options available today. It is human nature to squeeze as much $ out of the old business model before switching to the new one though, so we are choosing not to use the new methods. We already have desalination plants, the energy problem is simple.


Here's to hoping you are right.
This summer I'm looking at 32 cents a kilowatt hour for electricity and $4.29 for gasoline. The local government (USVI) doesn't have a clue where its getting the money to renovate the power plant, much less build more desal capability. Granted that most people here have cisterns and the rain falls regularly, so its not the end of the world.
Personally speaking, the threat of water rationing and brownouts is alot more real to me these days than it was a few years ago.

I figure if the outlook is bad in a US territory then its got to be a nightmare scenario in Africa, Asia, or the poorer parts of south America. I wouldn't want the job of the engineer who's got to resolve China's dustbowl.
The technology may exist but there continues to be a visible gap between knowing what can be done and proliferating equipment it to the places where it can do the most good.

These upgrades are long overdue and will be long in coming.
When the doomsday people say its nine meals between happiness and anarchy, its a rather tense wait for someone to pour the foundation on a global utopia.
 
2012-04-15 03:26:26 PM  
It's kind of cute, assuming that people who live on Mars, the Moon, whatever will give a rat's ass about a US census.
 
2012-04-15 03:31:35 PM  
In 2080 we'll be forty years from fusion power!

I want my flying car! And my sex bot, and a new body, (I'll be in my 100's).

I'm hoping we can change bodies like we now change clothes. Perhaps they will be flesh and blood, perhaps cybernetic. But regardless, your original body is in a tank somewhere, or at least your brain, and you live through various avatars.

/So yea, kinda like that awful movie Surrogates.
 
2012-04-15 03:33:49 PM  
Maybe they will send out color samples like you see at the paint store.
Or maybe they can just ask Google.
 
2012-04-15 03:35:59 PM  
Biological Ali:
what is a social construct is the idea that your gender identification somehow must might not be based on your biological sex at birth

/also works
 
2012-04-15 03:36:40 PM  
I'm doubting I'll have to be particularly concerned about the 2080 census.
 
2012-04-15 03:36:47 PM  
Sex:

[M] [F] [Other: OFTEN] √
 
2012-04-15 03:39:04 PM  

PC LOAD LETTER: pxsteel: By 2030 we will be pushing 9,000,000,000 people on the planet, 2050 10,000,000,000. Many places around the world wil be getting crushed by overpopulation. What kind of nasty bug comes from this is anyone's guess, but it is not going to be pretty.

Birth rates will determine if this remains true.


Actual % birth rates are becoming less an less of a factor in the equation. The # of females of birthing age is at an all time high. Even if the per female % is falling the fact that there are more of them obliterates the falling per %. We are adding 200,000+ net per day. 9bil is a conservative estimate.
 
2012-04-15 03:39:39 PM  

macadamnut: Biological Ali:
what is a social construct is the idea that your gender identification somehow must might not be based on your biological sex at birth

/also works


How is that a social construct?
 
2012-04-15 03:40:19 PM  
Why would that be scary?
 
2012-04-15 03:46:44 PM  

namatad: Rakishi: 12349876:
and yet tards tell me that I am the one with my head in the sand??? LOL


Ignoring for a moment what you guys are arguing about, you sound like a major jerk. Just, you know, FYI. If you care.
 
2012-04-15 03:50:33 PM  
Wake me up when the giraffes take over.

i4.ytimg.com
 
2012-04-15 03:55:11 PM  

namatad: drinking water permission number?
LOLOLOOLOLOLOLOL

oh my god PANIC we are running out of drinking water.

bwhahahahahahaahhaa ahahhahaha hahahaha hahahah hahahahahaha

If only there were a number of trivial ways to turn saline water into drinking water.
dumbass "problem" created by the people who brought you global warming.

I predict that when global warming goes away as a "problem" there will be two or three new problems waiting in the wings to be the PROBLEM OF THE YEAR.

food (even though the world is fatter now than ever before)
mass-extinctions!!!
water

/getting so tired of the never ending we should panic people. god help me if they turn me to the dark side


Keep farking that chicken. (new window)
 
2012-04-15 03:56:03 PM  
"-Do you have a home, or "biophysical domicile"? If so, is it on Earth, the moon, Mars or elsewhere?"

Private residences on the moon in 70 years? This guy is a nutball. I'm guessing that "director of the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies" is a volunteer position that pays either nothing or minimum wage plus tips.
 
2012-04-15 04:01:51 PM  

mat catastrophe: Keep farking that chicken. (new window)


Not trying to support or attack your position, but your proof is a Wikipedia entry? Really? What is this, public school?
 
2012-04-15 04:05:32 PM  

NullReferenceException: Future equivalent of Rick Santorum: "In the Netherlands, 50% of the sex change surgeries are involuntary. In fact, people there wear bracelets saying 'Do not change my reproductive organs.'"


While at the dentist, under local. No less.
 
2012-04-15 04:09:41 PM  

way south: I'm surprised that everyone who changes sex only chooses between man or woman.
I'd have gone with hermaphrodite.

/It's good to have options.


This.

I was born too soon.

Then again, when anyone could look or feel however they want to, will we finally have a world where what you are inside matters more than what you look like?

//Would still be a perv, but a perv with honor.
 
2012-04-15 04:11:28 PM  
If it's NPR then two key questions will be

are you gay or bi
are you 100% black or only 96%
 
2012-04-15 04:19:39 PM  

Shadow Blasko: Then again, when anyone the super rich could look or feel however they want to, will we finally have a world where what you are inside matters more than what you look like?


Sorry, the rich will have this ability. The rest of us will be excess population living in slums.

Perhaps their robots will harvest us for spare parts. Or they'll just hunt us for sport.
 
2012-04-15 04:24:11 PM  
graphic-engine.swarthmore.edu

Homo machinus?
 
2012-04-15 04:30:38 PM  
The silly thing about the article is assuming that governments will still require censuses to obtain this information.
 
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