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(Phys Org2)   What happens when everyone has a replicator at home?   (phys.org ) divider line 108
    More: Interesting, Atlantic Council, auto parts, fuselages, hip replacement surgery, printer driver, paraphernalia, clocks  
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6565 clicks; posted to Geek » on 14 Apr 2012 at 8:44 AM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-04-14 08:49:20 AM  
Crazy, strange, wonderful things happen.

Although at this stage we're far more likely to see 3D printing implemented at the industrial level long before we see it in the home. The kind of machines you can get at home make nice plastic objects; the stuff at industrial levels can make fully-formed complex objects of multiple materials.

Personally, I can't wait for it to take off, as the more "stuff" we can make at low low prices the better.
 
2012-04-14 08:51:57 AM  
www.polyvore.com
 
2012-04-14 08:55:27 AM  
All we need now is an easy way to do it for metals so that the grain structure and HAZ don't come out like crap.
 
2012-04-14 09:00:41 AM  

LasersHurt: The kind of machines you can get at home make nice plastic objects; the stuff at industrial levels can make fully-formed complex objects of multiple materials.


The principles are the same in either case. All 3D printers are multi-axis CNC machines that use an additive process to make a widget. That puts limitations on things that are the same for home and industrial printers. Your standard commodity printer can print in multiple materials at the same time, although you're limited to using some kind of thermoplastic. There are other methods of deposition, but the variation is more in terms of quality than complexity.

3D printers have very limited utility at the industrial scale. They're not good for mass production- they're slower, more complex and more expensive to operate than pretty much every other means of manufacturing. They're great for rapid prototyping.

At home is where the real potential is. But for them to really be useful at home they need to be faster, and they need to output something in higher quality materials. Thermo-plastic extrusion is a dead end, I think. As some more cynical farker put it, it's a hot glue gun attached to a CNC platform.
 
2012-04-14 09:03:20 AM  
"Computer. Earl Grey, hot."

*sweaty 1830s Prime Minister materializes*
 
2012-04-14 09:04:45 AM  

Ed Finnerty: "Computer. Earl Grey, hot."

*sweaty 1830s Prime Minister materializes*


"Computer. Music, Barry White."
 
2012-04-14 09:04:47 AM  
I don't know about everyone else, but I'll be using the bike from Akira for my commute.

dl.dropbox.com

/The money will be in selling patterns for the replicator instead of selling physical objects.
/Seeing as present 3d printers fall short of star trek replicators, near future replication will be a thing you go to a store for because you need specialized help to make and assemble the product.
 
Skr
2012-04-14 09:05:25 AM  
It means SG-1 has failed?
 
2012-04-14 09:06:08 AM  
Gun control becomes a total joke.
 
2012-04-14 09:08:12 AM  

BigSlowTarget: Gun control becomes a total joke.


Implying that it isn't already?

/I wonder how the British and their "scary knife ban" will fair.
 
2012-04-14 09:08:42 AM  

BigSlowTarget: Gun control becomes a total joke.


It already largely is. Most of the major parts of a firearm can be constructed in a cheap garage machine shop. Constructing a barrel that will last through repeated firings is the hard part.
 
2012-04-14 09:12:29 AM  

t3knomanser: LasersHurt: The kind of machines you can get at home make nice plastic objects; the stuff at industrial levels can make fully-formed complex objects of multiple materials.

The principles are the same in either case. All 3D printers are multi-axis CNC machines that use an additive process to make a widget. That puts limitations on things that are the same for home and industrial printers. Your standard commodity printer can print in multiple materials at the same time, although you're limited to using some kind of thermoplastic. There are other methods of deposition, but the variation is more in terms of quality than complexity.

3D printers have very limited utility at the industrial scale. They're not good for mass production- they're slower, more complex and more expensive to operate than pretty much every other means of manufacturing. They're great for rapid prototyping.

At home is where the real potential is. But for them to really be useful at home they need to be faster, and they need to output something in higher quality materials. Thermo-plastic extrusion is a dead end, I think. As some more cynical farker put it, it's a hot glue gun attached to a CNC platform.


I think the point of the article was the technology is constantly getting better and predicts a time when all your points about its limited industry utility will be solved. If the tech can get faster and with good materials than it would be good for industry. Designs may be more complex, but I think that's a plus rather than a negative, I have faith that design engineers can figure it out pretty quick.
 
2012-04-14 09:13:12 AM  
Dildo. Shaped like Earl Grey. He's hot.
 
2012-04-14 09:14:06 AM  
A 3D printer in every home will kill the pr0n store industry.....
 
2012-04-14 09:15:41 AM  

t3knomanser: 3D printers have very limited utility at the industrial scale. They're not good for mass production- they're slower, more complex and more expensive to operate than pretty much every other means of manufacturing. They're great for rapid prototyping.


Interesting comments, but as a manufacturing system engineer I tend to disagree for the industries I've served. It really depends on how the current expenses are coming out. A lot of manufacturing is still very labor oriented. If they get to the point where they can make anything, it eliminates all of the production labor if properly sized. It also eliminates a lot of volume constraints (inventory cost) by reducing the system to a single takt station. Then there's still the material savings from scrap reduction and the massive utility bills incurred both in your own part processing and the cost passed on to you from your suppliers. Of course, if you can manufacture this way then you don't really need fasteners either and most of the manufacturability design constraints simply no longer matter, so you can design much more efficiently for the material that you have.

Speed of production in mass production is strangely useless. It really comes down to cost per unit and that's it. If it takes you longer, then just get more production lines going.

For now though, the metals are coming out far too brittle even for rapid prototype testing.
 
2012-04-14 09:24:42 AM  
Can I have this one? (new window)
 
2012-04-14 09:35:28 AM  
I read a short story about this. Everyone got lazy, and the only job was the guy who fixed the replicator.

When there weren't enough fixers to go around, things got bad fast.
 
2012-04-14 09:37:21 AM  
All hell is going to break loose if this ever becomes refined. People trading designs across file sharing sites for every imaginable type of device. A hot new toy leaks right before xmas and retailers are going to go under. Need a new tv? no problem just download one and print it out. Given we are quite a ways away from that. Of course big business will lobby our wonderful federal government to ban these nefarious machines since we then have stopped consuming their goods.

It will be a wild ride
 
2012-04-14 09:39:04 AM  

Dracolich: t3knomanser: 3D printers have very limited utility at the industrial scale. They're not good for mass production- they're slower, more complex and more expensive to operate than pretty much every other means of manufacturing. They're great for rapid prototyping.

Interesting comments, but as a manufacturing system engineer I tend to disagree for the industries I've served. It really depends on how the current expenses are coming out. A lot of manufacturing is still very labor oriented. If they get to the point where they can make anything, it eliminates all of the production labor if properly sized. It also eliminates a lot of volume constraints (inventory cost) by reducing the system to a single takt station. Then there's still the material savings from scrap reduction and the massive utility bills incurred both in your own part processing and the cost passed on to you from your suppliers. Of course, if you can manufacture this way then you don't really need fasteners either and most of the manufacturability design constraints simply no longer matter, so you can design much more efficiently for the material that you have.

Speed of production in mass production is strangely useless. It really comes down to cost per unit and that's it. If it takes you longer, then just get more production lines going.

For now though, the metals are coming out far too brittle even for rapid prototype testing.


I tend to come down on your side of this, POV wise, though I'm sure we can all admit it depends on WHAT you're building. For example, though, I saw a flute printed - fully assembled. All they had to do was stick the springs in it for the fingery-bits. It took a while to print, but compared to the man-hours of creating each part and assembling a traditional flute you'd have to assume there would be savings (if you scaled this to a production level).

Shame about metals, but hey, nobody ever said printing metal would be easy.
 
2012-04-14 09:48:47 AM  

Dracolich: t3knomanser: 3D printers have very limited utility at the industrial scale. They're not good for mass production- they're slower, more complex and more expensive to operate than pretty much every other means of manufacturing. They're great for rapid prototyping.

Interesting comments, but as a manufacturing system engineer I tend to disagree for the industries I've served. It really depends on how the current expenses are coming out. A lot of manufacturing is still very labor oriented. If they get to the point where they can make anything, it eliminates all of the production labor if properly sized. It also eliminates a lot of volume constraints (inventory cost) by reducing the system to a single takt station. Then there's still the material savings from scrap reduction and the massive utility bills incurred both in your own part processing and the cost passed on to you from your suppliers. Of course, if you can manufacture this way then you don't really need fasteners either and most of the manufacturability design constraints simply no longer matter, so you can design much more efficiently for the material that you have.

Speed of production in mass production is strangely useless. It really comes down to cost per unit and that's it. If it takes you longer, then just get more production lines going.

For now though, the metals are coming out far too brittle even for rapid prototype testing.


I think the biggest impact will be on industrial supply chains. I know the military has looked at a trailer sized setup for use in deployment situations because it eliminates the need to stock an assortment of parts. I suspect that there are a good number of industries in which this might be a benefit. Also, anyone who has to retool their production line often will probably take a good hard look at it as well.

Also, I was under the impression that the ones that use powdered metal and laser sinstering produced fairly robust materials. Been a while since I've messed around with the tech though, so I could be mistaken.
 
2012-04-14 09:51:29 AM  
bad things, man... BAD farking things...

www.keypad.org
 
2012-04-14 10:09:09 AM  
Will somebody PLEASE think of the dildo manufacturers?
 
2012-04-14 10:32:17 AM  

Ummon: All hell is going to break loose if this ever becomes refined. People trading designs across file sharing sites for every imaginable type of device. A hot new toy leaks right before xmas and retailers are going to go under. Need a new tv? no problem just download one and print it out. Given we are quite a ways away from that. Of course big business will lobby our wonderful federal government to ban these nefarious machines since we then have stopped consuming their goods.

It will be a wild ride


Pirate Bay already has a section for designs for 3D printers.
 
2012-04-14 10:33:38 AM  
An army of Chinese girls starts tearing shiat up?
 
2012-04-14 10:35:54 AM  
The replicators get on drugs and fark up our glasses?
 
2012-04-14 10:36:38 AM  

Hacker_X: Ummon: All hell is going to break loose if this ever becomes refined. People trading designs across file sharing sites for every imaginable type of device. A hot new toy leaks right before xmas and retailers are going to go under. Need a new tv? no problem just download one and print it out. Given we are quite a ways away from that. Of course big business will lobby our wonderful federal government to ban these nefarious machines since we then have stopped consuming their goods.

It will be a wild ride

Pirate Bay already has a section for designs for 3D printers.


Games Workshop has already been sending out the C&Ds to sites with dice and miniature designs on them.
 
2012-04-14 10:37:35 AM  
What a replicator may look like:

assets.nydailynews.com
 
2012-04-14 10:39:47 AM  
George shook his head slowly. "You're wrong, John. Not back to where we were. This morning, we had an economy of scarcity. Tonight, we have an economy of abundance. This morning, we had a money economy-it was a money economy, even if credit was important. Tonight, it's a credit economy, one hundred per cent. This morning, you and the lieutenant were selling standardization. Tonight, it's diversity.

"The whole framework of our society is flipped upside down.' He frowned uncertainly. "And yet, you're right too, it doesn't seem make much difference, it is still the same old rat race. I don't understand it."


/Murray Leinster's "Business As Usual, During Alterations"
 
2012-04-14 10:41:56 AM  

WaitWhatWhy: Also, I was under the impression that the ones that use powdered metal and laser sinstering produced fairly robust materials. Been a while since I've messed around with the tech though, so I could be mistaken.


Hmm... I haven't gotten to play with the newest DMLS stuff yet. It's great to see them make the layers smaller and choose better materials for the process. Sintering tends to have real issues when it comes to strength and consistency. A lot of products I work on go through heavy fatigue and have planned-out failure modes, so I'd avoid the high variance in mechanical properties as well as the weak z direction issue. It's almost better to approach this as a different grain structure as it has a combination of issues seen elsewhere like in pearlite and general powder metallurgy. When you bend something with layers like that, it's tough to keep that layering from becoming an additional source of stress concentration and crack propagation especially with a little corrosion from wear and tear.

When I said it's brittle, what I'm really talking about is its apparent mode of failure. There isn't really a lot of use for things that shatter in an accident on the road. Though this is extremely promising for a lot of other industries and might be good enough to allow decent wiring in the models.
 
2012-04-14 11:00:24 AM  
"Computer: Semi relevant XKCD comic, hotlinked."
imgs.xkcd.com
 
2012-04-14 11:03:15 AM  
The industry will be kneecapped by copyright suits going after illegal replication of trademarked and patented objects.

New boss same as the old boss.
 
2012-04-14 11:07:18 AM  

irving47: bad things, man... BAD farking things...

[www.keypad.org image 640x338]


Freak'n IOA tried to bring them back.
 
2012-04-14 11:18:11 AM  
More importantly, what will be the new RIAA-type censor and how can we defeat it?
 
2012-04-14 11:21:07 AM  
upload.wikimedia.org
 
2012-04-14 11:23:23 AM  

lohphat: The industry will be kneecapped by copyright suits going after illegal replication of trademarked and patented objects.

New boss same as the old boss.


I fully expect to see 3-D printers outlawed in the next few years.
 
2012-04-14 11:53:08 AM  

t3knomanser: BigSlowTarget: Gun control becomes a total joke.

It already largely is. Most of the major parts of a firearm can be constructed in a cheap garage machine shop. Constructing a barrel that will last through repeated firings is the hard part.


I don't even think that's hard if you know a bit about materials sciences and the composition of barrels. Chances are if you have a lathe capable of making a rifled barrel, you probably have the skills to know what metal to make a barrel from.

/Some kind of high strength steel if the TV serves me right
//Gunpowder is a low speed explosive, so it pushes the bullet out rather then blowing the barrel up.
///It's impossible to control weapons when things like ammonium and bleach lay around every house as cleaning agents. A lot of house hold things can be quite lethal if combined right.
////Macguyver only for good!
 
2012-04-14 11:59:55 AM  
None of that shiatty Synthohol for me, thank you. I want the good stuff.
 
2012-04-14 12:24:38 PM  

Skr: It means SG-1 has failed?


One thing's for sure... We're going to need more P-90's
 
2012-04-14 12:27:13 PM  

tomcatadam: Hacker_X: Ummon: All hell is going to break loose if this ever becomes refined. People trading designs across file sharing sites for every imaginable type of device. A hot new toy leaks right before xmas and retailers are going to go under. Need a new tv? no problem just download one and print it out. Given we are quite a ways away from that. Of course big business will lobby our wonderful federal government to ban these nefarious machines since we then have stopped consuming their goods.

It will be a wild ride

Pirate Bay already has a section for designs for 3D printers.

Games Workshop has already been sending out the C&Ds to sites with dice and miniature designs on them.


Because all those other sternly worded letters Pirate Bay received over the years have done so much.
 
2012-04-14 12:34:45 PM  
The total collapse of the capitalist economy.

The sole industry will be design, and even that will only last 20 minutes until it's pirated.
 
2012-04-14 12:41:38 PM  

t3knomanser: LasersHurt: The kind of machines you can get at home make nice plastic objects; the stuff at industrial levels can make fully-formed complex objects of multiple materials.

The principles are the same in either case. All 3D printers are multi-axis CNC machines that use an additive process to make a widget. That puts limitations on things that are the same for home and industrial printers. Your standard commodity printer can print in multiple materials at the same time, although you're limited to using some kind of thermoplastic. There are other methods of deposition, but the variation is more in terms of quality than complexity.

3D printers have very limited utility at the industrial scale. They're not good for mass production- they're slower, more complex and more expensive to operate than pretty much every other means of manufacturing. They're great for rapid prototyping.

At home is where the real potential is. But for them to really be useful at home they need to be faster, and they need to output something in higher quality materials. Thermo-plastic extrusion is a dead end, I think. As some more cynical farker put it, it's a hot glue gun attached to a CNC platform.


TFA explains how this technology may obviate mass production. Each customer is one person, and they're not going to care where their one product came from as long as they got it. Any given printer or local fablab can't compare to a large factory, but many can -- and will. Look what happened to print shops once affordable home printing came along. Same thing.

You may also feel that the technology is limited, and there's no question that it currently is. But that falls short of appreciating it where it could go, what it could be capable of. TFA describes only one of many fablab technologies, which when combined have the potential to effectively replace large factories altogether.
 
2012-04-14 12:46:37 PM  
upload.wikimedia.org
 
2012-04-14 12:47:58 PM  

BigSlowTarget: Gun control becomes a total joke.


To some extent, I think you're right, in that it will gradually become easier to manufacturer more potent weapons privately and secretly. At the same time, I'm not sure it will result in lawlessness. Many things that are not hard to do privately and secretly right now are illegal, and most people respect that. There will always be political interest in public welfare, and social as well as legal mechanisms to address those concerns. And the penalties won't be displaced by any technology. You might or might not get caught moonshining, gunrunning, or making meth, but the penalties are the same if you do. If you get caught with a banned fablab gun, you'll get the same penalty as if you had a gun you merely smuggled instead of printed. The lack of this technology right now doesn't prevent anyone from making their own guns at home right now, yet most people currently don't. There's a lot more to lawbreaking than what anyone "can" do.
 
2012-04-14 12:57:42 PM  
1. Copyright / patent laws and lawyers will either ban the whole thing or go in a tailspin.
2. Raw material (a 3d printer can't print from air) and designs will be worth more than the finished product.
3. The ground around tall buildings will be splattered with bankers and Wall St. gamblers.
4. Communism will finally be feasible. Sorta. I think.
5. It won't happen until I'm an old fart who yells at clouds.
 
2012-04-14 01:00:54 PM  

Skr: It means SG-1 has failed?


Nothing a little solar flare can't fix.
 
2012-04-14 01:11:27 PM  

Bungles: The total collapse of the capitalist economy.

The sole industry will be design, and even that will only last 20 minutes until it's pirated.


The only 'economy' I see working at such a point is a true meritocracy. When you design a product and let everyone build it when and where desired, you get credit for the design, which accumulates and is redeemable for more products in your life.

There will still be need for *plenty* of non-manufacturing occupations - doctors and teachers and so on - so they'll get credit for their work. It's all the 'builders' that will become obsolete and will need to find other ways to be productive citizens and earn their own replicator credits.

Everyone will basically be employed by society as a whole and earn replicator and service credits based on their contributions to social welfare.
 
2012-04-14 01:16:34 PM  
I wonder if replicator could make a brick of cocaine? A living creature? A thermonuclear bomb?
 
2012-04-14 01:17:07 PM  

Uncle Tractor:
2. Raw material (a 3d printer can't print from air) and designs will be worth more than the finished product..


If the ITER project can get up-and-running, raw material will become any old crap you can fish out of your toilet. If we can get to a point where fusion becomes viable, then we'll be able to use the atomic fabricator to tear stuff apart into its component elements to be rebuilt into whatever new product we're wanting, supplemented by whatever missing elements can be generated thru fusion of lower elements, all while generating the energy used to build the final product.

All we gotta do is built that nanocarbon space elevator to go scoop up metric tons of tritium from the moon.
 
2012-04-14 01:20:05 PM  

studebaker hoch: I wonder if replicator could make a brick of cocaine? A living creature? A thermonuclear bomb?


Sure, maybe, sure. The interesting thing about living creatures would be 'turning it on', I'd think. You can't have a properly functioning half-a-cell, so you'd have to assemble it in a ground-energy state then zap it with some electricity to kick into gear. Similarly, you can't have a properly functioning half-an-organism.

Or something.
 
2012-04-14 01:34:03 PM  
1) Scan this image
www.photo-canvas.com
2)
i0.kym-cdn.com
 
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