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(Some whackjob)   Nobel Prize winning economic guru Donald Trump warns of massive inflation. And the government is lying about unemployment that is really at 20%   (moneynews.com) divider line 68
    More: Silly, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, inflation, Robert Wiedemer, unemployment  
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1113 clicks; posted to Business » on 07 Apr 2012 at 2:25 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-04-07 02:26:09 PM  
When did Trump become such a conspiracy wingnut? Or has he always been this way?
 
2012-04-07 02:38:25 PM  
Click to read about 1 weird secret to surviving the derpocalypse.
 
2012-04-07 02:39:52 PM  
www.shadowstats.com
 
2012-04-07 02:40:26 PM  
i43.tinypic.com
 
2012-04-07 02:42:45 PM  
 
2012-04-07 02:49:18 PM  
grantjkidney.com
 
2012-04-07 02:52:58 PM  
blogs.thetimes-tribune.com
 
2012-04-07 02:56:13 PM  
research.stlouisfed.org
 
2012-04-07 03:03:32 PM  
The inflation thing has run hand-in-hand with the Obama's going to steal your guns thing for four years. Coincidental no doubt.
 
2012-04-07 03:14:27 PM  
Hyperinflation only occurs when the money supply is increased in an attempt to outpace interest on debt payments, specifically to pay them down. I assume the US treasury is smart enough not to do such a thing.

There will be inflation, but it won't be Zimbabwe/Weimer Germany inflation. Trump is a kook.
 
2012-04-07 03:17:49 PM  
How do you fight inflation? Raise interest rates. What happens when interest rates go up to fight inflation? Budget deficit spikes due to increased interest on the debt. Bob Rubin's magic in cutting the Federal deficit in half in the 90s? Refinance the debt into short-term, low-interest bonds, instead of high-interest 30-year notes. Magic.

Trump is partially right. So is Krugman, who also predicted a bit of inflation this week. (Though the creepy cat guy thinks there won't be any core inflation. Krugman really buys the iPad-is-the-same-cost argument, please ignore that most people don't buy those every week....)

So, who's wrong? RON PAUL.

The problems? 1. Real Estate (still). 2. Education debt. 3. Residual consumer debt. Since the first largely fed the latter two during the last fifteen years, things are going to be sluggish for awhile.
 
2012-04-07 03:18:47 PM  
FTA:

But Trump isn't the only expert warning the U.S. economy may go off the cliff. Robert Wiedemer, author of the New York Times best-selling book Aftershock, stated in a recent interview, "The data is clear, 50% unemployment, a 90% stock market drop, and 100% annual inflation . . . starting in 2012."

Riiight. At the height of the Great Depression, unemployment was only 25%, he's obviously just pulling numbers out of his ass to scare people into buying his book. The Nigerian prince who emailed me about 10 million dollars he needs to get out of Nigeria is more believable than this guy.
 
2012-04-07 03:19:32 PM  

Ishkur: There will be inflation, but it won't be Zimbabwe/Weimer Germany inflation. Trump is a kook.


So much this. In the meantime, get used to ^DJI over 12K, gasoline over $3/gal..
 
2012-04-07 03:21:07 PM  

Gwyrddu: The Nigerian prince who emailed me about 10 million dollars he needs to get out of Nigeria is more believable than this guy.


Hey, he said he was going to deliver on 4/19. That's only a couple of weeks.
 
2012-04-07 03:35:11 PM  
If I ever met that douche, I would cock punch him with every ounce of strength I could muster. The beat down by his body guards and jail sentence would be so worth it.
 
2012-04-07 03:38:28 PM  
why is this guy still alive, while so many decent people have died?
 
2012-04-07 03:44:14 PM  
www.themathhattan.com

This is all you need to look at to get an idea of how wrong he is at everything. Would you trust someone with this sense of taste?

/not enough gold! throw more gold lame and leafing at it!
 
2012-04-07 03:57:54 PM  
let's put u6 in context, shall we:

i242.photobucket.com
 
2012-04-07 04:14:22 PM  
Farker Soze 2012-04-07 03:44:14 PM

[www.themathhattan.com]

This is all you need to look at to get an idea of how wrong he is at everything. Would you trust someone with this sense of taste?

/not enough gold! throw more gold lame and leafing at it!


Frak me, that looks a bit like a 700 Club set.
 
2012-04-07 04:35:31 PM  

FlashHarry: let's put u6 in context, shall we:

[i242.photobucket.com image 465x356]


Thanks. I had forgotten that the 1980s recession had higher unemployment rates than we have now.
 
2012-04-07 04:44:40 PM  
Farking Republicans.

If you scare enough people into thinking there will be doom and gloom, there will be doom and gloom. The cause of that downturn is people not spending due to fear. To me, this is just part of a concerted Republican effort to actually damage the US economy in hopes of scoring political points. Deliberate sabotage. Threatening default on US debts. Blocking tax increases which will help tame deficits. Rhetoric that indicates a desire to start a third war in the Middle East. Truly, the GOP is the greatest threat this country has faced since the Confederacy. They will burn the place down if they can't run it the way they want to.
 
2012-04-07 05:05:16 PM  
And yet: what he says is accurate.
 
2012-04-07 05:05:23 PM  
Jesus Christ I am sick of this stupid "real unemployment" bullshiat.

Talk about not getting it.
 
2012-04-07 05:08:30 PM  

hurdboy: How do you fight inflation? Raise interest rates. What happens when interest rates go up to fight inflation? Budget deficit spikes due to increased interest on the debt


If interest rates go any higher than 7%, the interest payments on the US debt will consume the entire budget. At that point, you must borrow to money to pay the interest. That only lasts a very very short time.

www.intellectualtakeout.org
 
2012-04-07 05:15:57 PM  

HempHead: If interest rates go any higher than 7%, the interest payments on the US debt will consume the entire budget. At that point, you must borrow to money to pay the interest. That only lasts a very very short time.


Right.

For reference, the rate on my parents' VA loan in 1980 was something like 19%.

What else isn't going to last very long? Social Security running a deficit, which it has the last two years. Regardless of who wins the presidential election, the "payroll tax" relief won't be renewed in the lame duck session. Nor will the "Bush Tax Cuts." Inflation, aside, enjoy your first paycheck in January.
 
2012-04-07 05:21:07 PM  

HempHead: If interest rates go any higher than 7%, the interest payments on the US debt will consume the entire budget. At that point, you must borrow to money to pay the interest. That only lasts a very very short time.


Have you factored in all the money we can generate by giving tax cuts to our job creators? With the surplus it would add to our budget, we could afford to give more tax cuts to our job creators.
 
2012-04-07 05:22:09 PM  

HempHead: hurdboy: How do you fight inflation? Raise interest rates. What happens when interest rates go up to fight inflation? Budget deficit spikes due to increased interest on the debt

If interest rates go any higher than 7%, the interest payments on the US debt will consume the entire budget. At that point, you must borrow to money to pay the interest. That only lasts a very very short time.

[www.intellectualtakeout.org image 600x450]


It looks to me as though the interest rate was greater than 6% from before 1980 through 2001, with a brief dip below 6% around 1993-94. In other words, it's not the interest rate itself that's the problem; instead, interest rate is just one of many factors involved.*

* I see in the graph's footnote that the "hypothetical" payments are based on holding all other variables (including debt levels!) constant, which makes it pretty useless in terms of real-world conditions, increasingly so as debt levels have spiked since 2000.
 
2012-04-07 05:26:43 PM  

heinrich66: And yet: what he says is accurate.


In no sense of the word is he "accurate"
 
2012-04-07 05:31:37 PM  
Ahhh yes. A book advert disguised as a financial article.
 
2012-04-07 05:41:53 PM  

hurdboy: HempHead: If interest rates go any higher than 7%, the interest payments on the US debt will consume the entire budget. At that point, you must borrow to money to pay the interest. That only lasts a very very short time.

Right.

For reference, the rate on my parents' VA loan in 1980 was something like 19%.

What else isn't going to last very long? Social Security running a deficit, which it has the last two years. Regardless of who wins the presidential election, the "payroll tax" relief won't be renewed in the lame duck session. Nor will the "Bush Tax Cuts." Inflation, aside, enjoy your first paycheck in January.


Even the worst SS scenarios have it paying out @ 70% of promised benefits.

Removing the cap on earnings subject to SS tax would completely fix SS.
 
2012-04-07 06:11:28 PM  

common sense is an oxymoron: HempHead: hurdboy: How do you fight inflation? Raise interest rates. What happens when interest rates go up to fight inflation? Budget deficit spikes due to increased interest on the debt

If interest rates go any higher than 7%, the interest payments on the US debt will consume the entire budget. At that point, you must borrow to money to pay the interest. That only lasts a very very short time.

[www.intellectualtakeout.org image 600x450]

It looks to me as though the interest rate was greater than 6% from before 1980 through 2001, with a brief dip below 6% around 1993-94. In other words, it's not the interest rate itself that's the problem; instead, interest rate is just one of many factors involved.*

* I see in the graph's footnote that the "hypothetical" payments are based on holding all other variables (including debt levels!) constant, which makes it pretty useless in terms of real-world conditions, increasingly so as debt levels have spiked since 2000.


Interest rate + amount of debt you must pay it on.

The debt cannot keep growing at any where close to the current rate.

Between the Dems/Repubs, they have both only floated plans to slightly lower the growth rate of the debt.

The end game is coming pretty soon.

You can look to Spain as an example to see how it will unfold.
 
2012-04-07 06:33:10 PM  

mcreadyblue: common sense is an oxymoron: HempHead: hurdboy: How do you fight inflation? Raise interest rates. What happens when interest rates go up to fight inflation? Budget deficit spikes due to increased interest on the debt

If interest rates go any higher than 7%, the interest payments on the US debt will consume the entire budget. At that point, you must borrow to money to pay the interest. That only lasts a very very short time.

[www.intellectualtakeout.org image 600x450]

It looks to me as though the interest rate was greater than 6% from before 1980 through 2001, with a brief dip below 6% around 1993-94. In other words, it's not the interest rate itself that's the problem; instead, interest rate is just one of many factors involved.*

* I see in the graph's footnote that the "hypothetical" payments are based on holding all other variables (including debt levels!) constant, which makes it pretty useless in terms of real-world conditions, increasingly so as debt levels have spiked since 2000.

Interest rate + amount of debt you must pay it on.

The debt cannot keep growing at any where close to the current rate.

Between the Dems/Repubs, they have both only floated plans to slightly lower the growth rate of the debt.

The end game is coming pretty soon.

You can look to Spain as an example to see how it will unfold.


IANAeconomist, and you may be right, but the original point of the graph was to illustrate the problem caused by a high interest rate, not with high levels of debt per se.
 
2012-04-07 06:42:09 PM  
True point is the housing bubble was unsustainable. When the cost of housing was rising at double digit increases but Pay was stagnant what do you expect would happen? Lets add the taxes most specifically property taxes are tied to the value of a home and that fake value starts to tumble to the real market value, you are going to and did lose tax revenue. Now lets add the unrealistic high price of gas/oil (which is what caused the original meltdown) and guess what we ARE heading for a double dip
 
2012-04-07 06:48:17 PM  

Farker Soze: [www.themathhattan.com image 600x400]

This is all you need to look at to get an idea of how wrong he is at everything. Would you trust someone with this sense of taste?

/not enough gold! throw more gold lame and leafing at it!


That's a room that wouldn't be that out of place at Versailles...
 
2012-04-07 06:51:04 PM  

mcreadyblue:
Interest rate + amount of debt you must pay it on.

The debt cannot keep growing at any where close to the current rate.

Between the Dems/Repubs, they have both only floated plans to slightly lower the growth rate of the debt.

The end game is coming pretty soon.

You can look to Spain as an example to see how it will unfold.


How so? Spain was devastated when the housing bubble boom burst in 2008 and hasn't recovered yet, with unemployment over 23%. I'm not too sure what debt lessons one should draw from that when the underlying economic situation is far from normal.

Sure, we were also hit hard by the housing bubble, but not half as severely as Spain, nor is the situation worsening for us.
 
2012-04-07 06:52:13 PM  
I tend to believe that a bullshiat artist is versed is his own craft. The riches know what's going on and more importantly will being going down.
 
2012-04-07 07:06:00 PM  

Franco: I tend to believe that a bullshiat artist is versed is his own craft. The riches know what's going on and more importantly will being going down.


You get suckered a lot, don't you?

"Well, he's dressed like a plumber; he must know what he's doing"
 
2012-04-07 07:54:12 PM  

gingerjet: When did Trump become such a conspiracy wingnut?


When his massive ego discovered it could get him more attention.
 
2012-04-07 07:59:08 PM  

Gwyrddu: mcreadyblue:
Interest rate + amount of debt you must pay it on.

The debt cannot keep growing at any where close to the current rate.

Between the Dems/Repubs, they have both only floated plans to slightly lower the growth rate of the debt.

The end game is coming pretty soon.

You can look to Spain as an example to see how it will unfold.

How so? Spain was devastated when the housing bubble boom burst in 2008 and hasn't recovered yet, with unemployment over 23%. I'm not too sure what debt lessons one should draw from that when the underlying economic situation is far from normal.

Sure, we were also hit hard by the housing bubble, but not half as severely as Spain, nor is the situation worsening for us.


The situation is indeed worsening.
 
2012-04-07 08:10:11 PM  

mcreadyblue: The situation is indeed worsening.


The national debt is growing, but the underlying economic situation isn't worsening. Depending on your yardstick, it is either stagnating or improving slightly. Which isn't that surprising, most recessions only last a matter of years anyway.
 
2012-04-07 08:21:48 PM  

Gwyrddu: mcreadyblue: The situation is indeed worsening.

The national debt is growing, but the underlying economic situation isn't worsening. Depending on your yardstick, it is either stagnating or improving slightly. Which isn't that surprising, most recessions only last a matter of years anyway.


You really kinda have to cherry-pick a yardstick to select "stagnating". (Offer not valid with Ron Paul supporters who think it's always getting worse.)
 
2012-04-07 09:14:07 PM  

HempHead: f interest rates go any higher than 7%, the interest payments on the US debt will consume the entire budget. At that point, you must borrow to money to pay the interest. That only lasts a very very short time.


And that is just the net interest. Considering gross interest (interest on the extended debt) and that gets even worse.
 
2012-04-07 09:20:09 PM  

Gwyrddu: The national debt is growing, but the underlying economic situation isn't worsening. Depending on your yardstick, it is either stagnating or improving slightly. Which isn't that surprising, most recessions only last a matter of years anyway.


I'll agree. The problem is that even with a improving economy, we are still expected to have huge deficits going forward (about 1T per year average for the next decade). While this is better than the current situation, it still explodes in our face here in 15 to 20 years.

Per the GAO/CBO"

endoftheamericandream.com
 
2012-04-07 09:24:47 PM  

vygramul: You really kinda have to cherry-pick a yardstick to select "stagnating".


With respect to the national debt, there is really very grave concern since all current projections show that it will be nearly impossible to produce a budget surplus, let alone every pay down this debt.

We have some hard choices coming.
 
2012-04-07 09:25:00 PM  
Is it just me, or is this "article" a thinly disguised sales letter to get you to watch an infomercial?
 
2012-04-07 09:47:07 PM  
Oh for farks sake!! Again!?!?!?


2011:

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-depression-of-2011-23 - economic-warning-signs-from-financial-authorities-all-over-the-globe

2010:

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/economic-black-hole-20-re a sons-why-the-u-s-economy-is-dying-and-is-simply-not-going-to-recover
 
2012-04-07 09:55:18 PM  

HeadLever: vygramul: You really kinda have to cherry-pick a yardstick to select "stagnating".

With respect to the national debt, there is really very grave concern since all current projections show that it will be nearly impossible to produce a budget surplus, let alone every pay down this debt.

We have some hard choices coming.


With that, I agree.
 
2012-04-07 09:55:59 PM  

HomerPhob: Oh for farks sake!! Again!?!?!?


2011:

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-depression-of-2011-23 - economic-warning-signs-from-financial-authorities-all-over-the-globe

2010:

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/economic-black-hole-20-re a sons-why-the-u-s-economy-is-dying-and-is-simply-not-going-to-recover


Shocking.
 
2012-04-07 10:50:19 PM  

common sense is an oxymoron: mcreadyblue: common sense is an oxymoron: HempHead: hurdboy: How do you fight inflation? Raise interest rates. What happens when interest rates go up to fight inflation? Budget deficit spikes due to increased interest on the debt

If interest rates go any higher than 7%, the interest payments on the US debt will consume the entire budget. At that point, you must borrow to money to pay the interest. That only lasts a very very short time.

[www.intellectualtakeout.org image 600x450]

It looks to me as though the interest rate was greater than 6% from before 1980 through 2001, with a brief dip below 6% around 1993-94. In other words, it's not the interest rate itself that's the problem; instead, interest rate is just one of many factors involved.*

* I see in the graph's footnote that the "hypothetical" payments are based on holding all other variables (including debt levels!) constant, which makes it pretty useless in terms of real-world conditions, increasingly so as debt levels have spiked since 2000.

Interest rate + amount of debt you must pay it on.

The debt cannot keep growing at any where close to the current rate.

Between the Dems/Repubs, they have both only floated plans to slightly lower the growth rate of the debt.

The end game is coming pretty soon.

You can look to Spain as an example to see how it will unfold.

IANAeconomist, and you may be right, but the original point of the graph was to illustrate the problem caused by a high interest rate, not with high levels of debt per se.


There is a mysterious relationship between these things....
 
2012-04-07 11:17:03 PM  
mcreadyblue: The end game is coming pretty soon.

That's what you are hoping and praying to your holy messiah Ron Paul for.

You like the thought of people starving in the streets.

As long as it isn't precious special YOU.

Idiot.
 
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